A QUICK RAVENS RETROSPECTIVE BEFORE THE PICK
It's troubling for many Ravens fans that their beloved team has not made the playoffs two out of the last 3 seasons. 2015 was arguably one of the worst seasons in the team's history and easily the worst season in John Harbaugh's career as a head coach. I, instead, believe at this point that this season was doomed for reasons beyond the control of the coaching staff and front office. People call in to 105.7 The Fan and complain about Ozzie Newsome's recent lack of success with early round draft picks. They whine about the Ravens not putting into the receiving corps, and the STILL whine about the decision to trade away Anquan Boldin for a measly late round draft pick. Too many, however, have neglected to examine that first domino that sent so many things toppling over during the past 3 seasons--Ray Rice.
During the four seasons from 2009 to 2012, Ray Rice had the most all-purpose yards of any player in the NFL. That's correct; more than Adrian Peterson, more than Marshawn Lynch, and more than LeSean McCoy. The math was quite simple: the Ravens won an overwhelming number of games when Ray Rice was given 25+ touches per game, and they lost nearly every time he was held to 15 touches or less. During the 2013 season, Ray Rice experienced a major lull in his production. Much of that lull can be attributed to poor offensive line play and turmoil from having what boiled down to two offensive line coaches. In addition, Rice had become heavier in an effort to stay durable as his career carries total advanced, and that appeared to reduce is burst and elusiveness. Ray suffered a hip flexor injury early in the season that never fully recovered until the subsequent off-season--and boy what an off-season that was for lil Ray...
Ray Rice made it a goal to drop weight and get back into dynamic shape for the 2014 season, and then, of course, he knocked his fiance out. Ray appeared to run quite well in the preseason, but then video surfaced of his brutal blow and the Ravens had no choice but to cut him once the truly devastating nature of the assault became realized by the footage. Suddenly the Ravens were not only without the most crucial offensive weapon of the last 4 years, but they were stuck with a crippling amount of dead money because cutting Rice actually INCREASED the amount to which he counted against the salary cap. That amount of dead money hit a peak this past season to nearly 10 million dollars, and that coupled with the Pitta's functionally dead money meant the Ravens couldn't make a serious run at a host of free agents that could have added depth at the wide receiver, safety, and corner positions. Hell, an extra 12-15 million dollars in cap space would have meant the Ravens could have re-signed Torrey Smith AND gone after another veteran receiver and a corner. That's such an incredible amount of extra cap space that the Ravens just didn't have...nearly entirely because of Ray Rice.
So say what you want about Ozzie Newsome, and say what you want about some of the players he has drafted early in recent seasons, but if Ray Rice had not created such a devastating salary cap black hole things could look quite different right now. Of course injuries played a major role in the doomed nature of the 2015 season, but if given a healthy amount of wiggle room to sign and trade for other players, Ozzie could have procured better talent and depth. Ok, enough about the Ravens. They're not in the playoffs, so let's take a look at the teams that are.
AFC WILDCARD PICKS AND ANALYSIS
CHIEFS AT TEXANS
'This is one of the best matchups of the playoffs as it features two teams that started the season in such embarrassing fashion that no one seemed to give either franchise a prayer of making the playoffs. The Chiefs began the season 1-5, and the Texans began the season 2-5. The Chiefs went on a 10 game winning streak despite having lost their star running back, Jamaal Charles, while the Texans found their mojo defensively and proceeded to win big games despite the absence of a serious, franchise quarterback.
Before going any further, I must remind readers that in order to come to derive accurate predictions from statistical analysis, we first must eliminate statistics that are, for one reason or another, not relevant or applicable. Choosing which statistics are irrelevant can be tricky, but it's ultimately the key that separates thoughtful analysis from pseudoanalysis and baseless guessing. In the case of the Chiefs and Texans, we can throw out the statistics of both teams during their respective 1-5 and 2-5 starts. The Chiefs were forced to make fundamental changes to their offense when the focal point of their offense, the aforementioned Jamaal Charles, went down with a season-ending knee injury. Charles suddenly couldn't be the focal point of their offense, and more weight was placed on Alex Smith's shoulders--and boy has he held it well.
The Texans' current starting quarterback, Brian Hoyer only passed for just over 2,600 yards this season, and that was mostly due to the fact that he only played in 11 games. Hoyer did throw an impressive 19 touchdowns despite his limited number of games, and averaged a respectable 236 passing yards per game. Before last week, Brandon Weeden started two games for the Texans with good success as he won both. Hoyer, thus, could easily be benched if the Texans find themselves struggling early against the Chiefs. Despite a decent yardage average and a high number of touchdown passes, the Texans have actually lost more games than they've won when Brian Hoyer has played. Hoyer is 5-6 on the season including a season-opening loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are the unquestionably hotter team coming into the wildcard round. Kansas City, in fact, is the hottest team in football. There are other teams with better records such as the Patriots, Panthers, Bengals, and Broncos, but the Chiefs are the only team that hasn't lost in months. It is their current 10-game winning streak that has made the Chiefs to be the favorites in the eyes of many entering the wildcard round. The Chiefs have not only had to figure out how to produce on offense without Jamaal Charles, but they've also had to had to find the ability to generate a pass rush without the consistent presence and health of Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Houston, despite being the team sack leader, hasn't played since November, but the Chiefs still managed to sack an incredibly mobile Derek Carr a whopping 6 times last week. Suffice it to say that Andy Reid knows how to roll with the punches when his marquee players go down.
THE STATS
This game will be played in Houston, so we will ignore statistics (except to compare home vs. road performance) accured on the road by the Texans, and statistics accured at home by the Chiefs. We will also ignore stats accured by both teams during their respective early season slumps.
During their current winning streak, the Chiefs have played 4 road games with a startling level of offensive production scoring an average 32.5 points per game. It's not as though all of these games came against horrible teams. The Chiefs absolutely throttled the Broncos in Denver 29-13, they demolished the Chargers 33-3, they beat a fairly formidable foe in Oakland, and crushed the Ravens in Baltimore. So ok, the Ravens and Chargers both had major down years, but the traveling across the country to face Philip Rivers is always a challenge, and the Ravens actually ranked 8th in total defense in the second half of the season. Scoring 34+ points in Baltimore is a feat accoplished otherwise only by the red-hot Seahawks this season. Scoring 29 points IN DENVER is impressive. The Broncos own one of the league's best offenses this season, and Denver beat the Chiefs in Kansas City earlier this season.
The truly strange fact is that the Chiefs actually produced far more on the road than at home during their current winning streak. Kansas City only beat the Raiders 23-17 at home to finish out the season, and they beat the Chargers 10-3 at home. It is, therefore, possible that Andy Reid has far more confidence in his team's ability to play defense behind a home crowd and is, therefore, more conservative in his offensive approach at home than on the road. Whatever the reason, the Chiefs scored an average of 24.6 points and allowed an average of 13 points at home and scored 32.5 points 12.5 points on the road during this winning stretch. I must note that the Chiefs DID allow less points during the aforementioned road games, but a MUCH higher level of offensive production means far less pressure on the defense, and thus, the level of defensive play at home was substantially more impressive. The Chiefs' home offensive production would have been more lower had it not been for an utter blowout (45-10) of the Lions shortly before Kansas City's bye week.
The Houston Texans' statistics won't be as tricky as they might have been because the two games that Brandon Weeden started in the last month were on the road and are, therefore, not taken into account in a home prediction. There is, however, one key home game wherein T.J. Yates started in place of Hoyer, and no offensive stats will be significant from that, though the defensive stats WILL be counted towards the ultimate prediction. The Texans scored a mediocre 20 points per game (21 if you figure in the Jets game) at home during their current successful stretch. Houston allowed an impressive 12.4 points per game during that same time period. There's no question that the Texans play dominant defense at home, and the combination of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus is a BIG reason. Watt and Mercilus combined for 29.5 sacks, which is one half sack better than the Suggs-Dumveril tandem from last season. The Texans had an impressive 45 sacks on the season which is only 2 sacks behind the Chiefs with 47.
THE PREDICTION
I realize as I look over the Texans' home opponents during their current successful stretch of football that they faced almost exclusively horrendous opponents, and the one time they played an elite offensive team at home during that time was an utter failure. The Patriots destroyed and dominanted the Texans 27-6 in Week 14, and every other win except that against the Jets was against a team with a losing record. Winning games in the NFL is always difficult regardless of which teams you face as the Ravens found out this season. Wins over poor teams at home, however, mean quite a lot less when you're facing a team that scores an average of 32.5 points on the road. If the Patriots were able to go into Houston and blast the Texans during a period of limited receiving weapons for Brady, it's difficult for me to imagine the Texans team that only scores 20 points at home going up against the hottest team in football with a full array of pass rushers and coming out victorious.
The key to this game is Alex Smith's mobility and his low rate of turnover. Smith threw only 7 interceptions this season in 16 games. Hoyer also threw 7 interceptions, but he did so in only 11 games. This is a matchup of two defensive stout teams, but only one of these teams has the ability to put up elite offensive numbers. The Chiefs have beaten better teams than the Texans this season, and they've even beaten the Texans albeit many months ago. PREDICTION: CHIEFS 24-17
STAY TUNED FOR THE STEELERS-BENGALS PREDICTION WHICH WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY
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