I would be lying if I claimed that Thusday night's 40-0 win over the Dolphins didn't rekindle my hope that the Ravens could find a way to right the figurative ship and earn a playoff berth this season. The Ravens defense suffocated a Dolphins offense that, while statistically dead last in the league, performed well enough to earn three consecutive wins over the Titans, Falcons, and Jets before Thursday's matchup. No one should be particularly shocked that the Ravens defense returned to form against a bottom-feeding offense, but everyone should recognize that the Ravens OFFENSE returned to form against the Dolphins' 6th ranked defense.
Alex Collins ran roughshod over a Dolphins run defense that currently ranks 9th in the league in average rushing yards allowed per game. Even when Terrance West returns to health, Collins must get the lion's share of carries among the Ravens running backs while Buck Allen, West, and ultimately Danny Woodhead should comprise a supporting cast. Woodhead and Collins could actually find themselves on the field at the same time with Woodhead lined up in the slot. Whatever the breakdown in touches may be, Collins has demonstrated a level of elusiveness burst, and top speed that none of his backups can match. He is a true starting-caliber back, and has demonstrated easily the most talent at the position since the decline and departure of Ray Rice--oh, and the Ravens didn't even have to spend a draft pick to acquire him.
Alex Collins leads the NFL in average yards per carry (6), but he has done so by breaking off some pretty impressive long runs. It's not uncommon to see the young back zig-zag his way up field for 20, 30, 40, or even 50 yards, and that's something else that the Ravens haven't consistently enjoyed since Ray Rice's prime. One major difference between Thursday's win over the Dolphins and the two losses immediately prior to it is the health of Matt Skura. The Ravens coaching staff appeared to prefer Skura to step in for Marshal Yanda after the all pro guard was placed on injured reserve in Week 2. Jermaine Eluemunor stepped in for Matt Skura when Skura became injured, but Eluemunor struggled to protect Flacco and open up running lanes during that time. None of the Ravens backup offensive linemen are even remotely one Marshal Yanda's level, but it's no shock that the return of Matt Skura against the Dolphins was accompanied by the most dominant offensive performance the Ravens have produced since hanging 31 points on an abysmal Raiders defense 3 weeks ago.
Some may question how Ravens players and fans could possibly feel excited after a game wherein Joe Flacco took a violent blow to the head that left the 10 year veteran concussed. The fact that the Ravens last game took place on a Thursday means that Flacco will have a full 10 days to pass concussion protocol and get ready to face an uneven Titans team in Tennessee. Concussions are all different, and there's no one set recovery time as they all vary in severity and what parts of the brain were affected. Ten days, however, gives Joe a strong chance to return for the next game, and Mike Wallace will hopefully be ready by that point too.
It must be noted that thumping the Dolphins in no way indicates the Ravens have officially and permanently turned their season around. The Ravens dominated the Dolphins last season in similar fashion, and Joe Flacco has never lost to Miami in his career. Sometimes a team simply matches up and game-plans well for a particular opponent. Baltimore outscored the Dolphins 78-6 in the last two meetings between these two teams. That doesn't mean that the Ravens are amazing or that the Dolphins are bad. The Ravens are 12-12 in their last 24 games without a playoff berth in since 2014. The Dolphins actually made the playoffs last season despite the loss of their starting quarterback. With that said, it sure is good to know the Ravens took care of business a team that has been red-hot as of late.
For all of John Harbaugh's publicly perceived faults, the Ravens have typically managed to hit their stride in the second half of seasons. For all the criticism Dean Pees has received over the years, the Ravens rank 6th in points allowed per game this season. Oh, and despite the claims that the Ravens offense ranks in the bottom two teams in the league in yardage per game, Baltimore actually ranks in the middle of the pack at 17th in points scored per game. If the Ravens do ultimately miss the playoffs, any combination of Harbaugh, Mornhinweg, or Pees could be gone, but each of these three men has found high level success in the past, and it's not outlandish to suggest they couldn't turn even this incredibly injured team into a consistent winner. Losing 4 out of their last 6 games certainly gave fans a feeling of hopelessness, but the Ravens lost 4 out of 5 games to finish the 2012 regular season...and we all know how that turned out.
Baltimore may find some way to squeak into the playoffs because of a fairly soft remaining schedule, but they'll need to find a way to get their explosive receiving corps consistently involved in the offense if they hope to beat other playoff teams. Mike Wallace hasn't even played the vast majority of the last two games, and he leads receivers with a meager 248 receiving yards on the season. Maclin has occasionally made a nice grab, but he's too good not to get more targets, and Breshad Perriman made some absolutely spectacular catches last season, so it mystifies me that he's been almost non-existent this year. If only one of these receiver took a statistical nosedive, it would make sense to suggest he was having a down year, but the fact that all three have produced at such depressed levels suggests that scheme and play-calling must be to blame. The Ravens offense faced 6 top 15 defenses in points allowed during their first 8 games, but they'll have plenty of opportunities to put on offensive fireworks displays in the second half of the season as 6 of their remaining 8 opponents rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game, and many are dealing with significant season-ending injuries. The Packers, for example, lost Aaron Rodgers, and the Texans lost J.J. Watt.
The road ahead for the Ravens is by no means easy, but it's also not insurmountable. This organization hasn't found much success over the last few years, but here they sit at mid-season with only one less win than the top teams in the conference (that could, of course, change today). No team has looked consistently dominant in the AFC, and the Ravens two biggest foes, the Patriots and Steelers, have both showed major flaws at times. This could easily be a year where an 8-8 or 9-7 team secures a wildcard spot in the AFC, so don't lose hope yet Baltimore; we've got plenty of football left.
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
VIKINGS AT BROWNS- The Browns will be lucky to get 100 yards of offense. VIKINGS 24-9
RAIDERS AT BILLS- Winners of 3 of their last 4 games, the Bills have started to pick up steam with wins against competitive teams. The Raiders, despite the return of Derek Carr, don't have the defense to stop the Bills. BILLS 31-28
COLTS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are down, but they're nowhere near as hopeless as the Colts this season. BENGALS 33-17
CHARGERS AT PATRIOTS- This will be an interesting game because of what the Chargers just did to the Broncos and Raiders. Philip Rivers and company won't struggle to move the ball on the Patriots defense, but I have a feeling Brady will find a way to engineer a late-game comeback. PATRIOTS 27-24
BEARS AT SAINTS- After beginning the season with two straight losses, the Saints have won 4 straight and demonstrated some offensive firepower along the way. The Bears have picked up steam as of late, but their success is predicated on their defense creating turnovers, and that's not something that can be counted on to happen on a weekly basis. SAINTS 30-21
FALCONS AT JETS- The Falcons aren't nearly as good as I thought they were, and the Jets aren't nearly as bad as I assumed they'd be. Atlanta has, as a matter of fact, lost their last 3 straight. It seems as though Las Vegas oddsmakers believe the Falcons will get back on track with a win in New Jersey today as they have Atlanta favored by 7, but it could be much tougher than they anticipate. FALCONS 23-20
49ERS AT EAGLES- Yeah...EAGLES 38-17
PANTHERS AT BUCCANEERS- The Buccaneers have lost close games to a good number of quality teams, but they've still only won two games on the season because "almost won" means you lost. PANTHERS 33-28
TEXANS AT SEAHAWKS- The Texans have almost exclusively beaten bottom-of-the-league teams, and the loss of J.J. Watt likely means the difference between being able to beat winning teams and only being relegated to beating up on the little guys. Meanwhile the Seahawks have the league's best defense that has only allowed 15.7 point per game. SEAHAWKS 28-17
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- This is about as evenly matches as these two teams have been in a long time. The Cowboys are 2-1 on the road, and the Redskins are 2-1 at home. Both teams are 3-3 and will be fiercely vying for second place in the NFC East today. The Cowboys offense has picked up steam as of late, but their defense has allowed some teams to keep games close. In a divisional game where the teams appear incredibly evening matches, I tend to give the home team the nod, but I can't see a Redskins team that struggled to put the 49ers away stopping the Cowboys offense in what could be the last game Zeke plays for a while. COWBOYS 35-28
STEELERS AT LIONS- The Steelers have struggled offensively in nearly all of their road games (the Ravens game was sadly the one exception). Pittsburgh has, however, one of the best defenses in the league to this point, and that has helped them squeak out wins in games where their offense has sputtered. The Lions defense has looked pretty horrible at times this season though, and I expect the Steelers offense to have a road redemption game in Detroit today. STEELERS 38-20
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- The after a strong start, the Broncos have lost 3 of their last 4 games. They're not going to snap that skid in Arrowhead Stadium. CHIEFS 27-21
THERE'S SOMETHING SO RELAXING ABOUT BEING ABLE TO KICK BACK ON A SUNDAY AND WATCH THE REST OF THE LEAGUE TEAR EACH OTHER APART. HAPPY HALLOWEEN, RAVEN NATION!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, October 29, 2017
Saturday, October 21, 2017
WEEK 7 NFL PREDICTIONS
The past month of Ravens football has been absolutely miserable. Watching the Ravens get trounced in every phase of the game in London would have been the worst part if it hadn't then been followed by a loss to the Steelers at home and the Bear in overtime--also at home. The misery of the last month was only momentarily punctuated by a road win over a Raiders team missing its most vital player. It was nice to watch the Ravens get their offense going, but I had to constantly remain myself that the Raiders defense was next to useless despite the presence of Khalil Mack, and the win wasn't any indication that Baltimore had fixed major problems on offense.
Friends of mine have debated with me about the reason for the Ravens' struggles this year, and it seems as though they all wish that simply firing a coordinator or two would suddenly bring the team back to the glory of the early part of this decade. I even have one particular friend who insisted that the Ravens should have known they'd struggle because they invested "nothing" into their offense in the off-season as he cited the defense-heavy draft. I reminded him, however, that the Ravens had invested their previous two first round draft picks on a left tackle and a wide receiver, and they got another starting offensive linemen and starting running back in the 2016 draft--they just happen to both be on injured reserve. When you list them all out, the injuries to starting offensive players are so many and impactful that it's no surprise that the team struggles to move the football. Alex Lewis, Marshal Yanda, Danny Woodhead, Kenneth Dixon, Darren Waller, Dennis Pitta, Crocket Gillmore, Terrence West, and now Breshad Perriman have all had major injuries, and most of them have been season-ending. Joe Flacco hasn't missed any playing time, but its safe to say that much of the Ravens offensive plans were designed conservatively in an effort to keep Joe from aggravating whatever back injury kept him sidelined during the pre-season.
The Ravens aren't the New England Patriots; they can't simply turn to former lacrosse players or some guy who just got off the evening shift at Denny's to win a Super Bowl. They don't have an offensive system set in place, and they don't have an offensive guru as a head coach. Instead what they have is a revolving door of offensive coordinators, and a quarterback with the highest salary cap hit in the entire league. Joe Flacco showed the world in 2012 that he could outduel the best quarterbacks of a generation en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Fast-forward five years and Flacco has demonstrated zero growth or progress despite being in the league for an entire decade. He has a strong arm, but lacks the vision, footwork, and ability to read a defense that the rest of the league's highest paid quarterbacks all possess.
So what was the difference between the Baltimore Ravens of 2008-2012 and the Ravens from 2013 to now? Injuries have certainly been quite a theme in recent years, but two things stand out to me: Ray Rice and an offensive line full of Pro Bowlers. The Ravens briefly experienced impressive production from Justin Forsett in 2014 within the system and guidance of Gary Kubiak, but Forsett's career was essentially ended when he broke his arm against the San Diego Chargers in 2015, and he was no sort of long term replacement for Rice. For a 4 year period from 2009-2012, Ray Rice was the most productive running back in the league. He is one of only two running backs in league history with multiple seasons with over 1200 yards rushing and 700 yards receiving. Rice served not only as a workhorse, but also as a spectacular pass-catching back. It might seem like ancient history now, but there was a period in the not-too-distant past where the Ravens were statistically guaranteed to win games where Rice touched the ball 25 times or more, and they lost most of the games where Rice touched the ball fewer than 20 times. The now-disgraced running back could break off runs of 50 or 75 yards and break a game wide open.
Ray Rice's career has been over now for years, but the points stands that the Ravens have looked to get production out of players essentially cast off from other teams, and they haven't truly invested at the position since spending a second round pick on little Ray in 2008. With that said, the Ravens appear to have an unlikely playmaker in the explosive Alex Collins who currently leads the NFL in yards per carry with 6.4. The Ravens actually rank 7th in the league running the football thus far, but they're not so good running the ball that their ranking has translated into touchdowns. This has much to do with the fact that the Ravens simply don't possess an offensive line capable of pass-blocking at a consistently high level. From 2011-2012, the Ravens had a host of Pro Bowl offensive linemen including Ben Grubbs, Matt Birk, Marshal Yanda, Bryant McKinney. Even Michael Oher was a quality right tackle at that point in his career, and that line protected Flacco well enough to give him the time to execute a copious number of scoring drives complete with a league high number of deep passes. Oh, and when Joe didn't have receivers open, he had Ray Rice as a reliable check-down target to keep the chains moving.
It's possible that having Alex Lewis, Marshal Yanda, and Danny Woodhead or Kenneth Dixon back would mean Flacco would have a similar set of tools at his disposal right now, but three of those four players are on injured reserve, so speculation is meaningless at this point. What isn't speculation is that the Ravens aren't equipped with the tools to move the football at the level of 2011 or 2012. I am still curious to see what the return of Danny Woodhead will bring considering just how easily the Ravens moved down the field when he was in on the first offensive drive of the season, but it seems naïve to think that a single aging running back will turn the season around considering his recently issue with injuries.
It's not that the Ravens haven't tried to add playmakers to this team--they absolutely have. Ozzie Newsome and company made a bid to try to trade for Adrian Peterson within the last two weeks, and they brought former Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold in for a visit during the off-season. The Ravens even cut backup offensive guard Tony Bergstrom in what was likely an attempt to find a more effective free agent guard or to make a trade for another guard that could step in immediately and be more reliable and productive than Matt Skura, Jermaine Elumaenor, or Tony Bergstrom. The market must've been quite dry as the Ravens promptly re-signed Bergstrom in the last 24 hours for depth.
The factors that have led the Ravens to struggle over the past 5 seasons have been too numerous to simply point to one or two things as the reason they've only made the playoffs once during that stretch. A lack of quality corners and safeties had been a major theme, but the Ravens did all they could to make that problem go away. The Ravens drafted a host of offensive linemen and found some impressive talent, but too much of that talent has become injured as of late. Whether the issues are defensive or offensive, one thing is for certain: signing major free agents would be dramatically easier if Joe Flacco's cap hit reflected his current quarterback ranking.
The Ravens have twice gone on the road this season and beaten teams to whom many assumed they'd lose. The Vikings, like the Ravens, have been snake-bitten by injuries as of late. The injuries to major starters on the Vikings may actually be more profound than those of the Ravens, but the Vikings have found ways to win their last two games anyway. Minnesota, in fact, beat the same Bears team that just edged the Ravens last week. The return of Brandon Williams may mean the Ravens defense will once again be the elite unit it appeared to be in the first two weeks of the season, but until that happens, it's clear the Vikings have a better defense. The Ravens D, for example, gave up a franchise record 231 rushing yards last week, and that was to a team that could barely pass the football. Without Sam Bradford, Dalvin Cook, and Stefon Diggs, it's tough to imagine the Vikings being particularly explosive, but Ravens fans assumed the same thing about the Bears last week.
To add to Baltimore's offensive woes, the Ravens receiving corps is more banged up now than at any point this season. It appears as though both Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace will play, but Breshad Perriman is dealing with a serious concussion and could miss significant time. Michael Campanaro and Chris Moore will have to step up in Perriman's place, but Wallace and Maclin must finally reach the level of production they were signed to produce.
Suffice it to say that I don't believe for one moment that this will be the week the Ravens offense finds some sort of miraculous rhythm. The Vikings may have the best defense the Ravens have faced to this point, and Baltimore's offense is most short-staffed than ever. The only two things that could tilt things in favor of the Ravens are major offensive schematic adjustments, but nothing we've seen thus far would lead us to believe that Marty Mornhinweg is likely to do anything of the sort. This is probably the most pessimistic I've ever been before a game wherein a Ravens opponent is missing its starting quarterback, running back, and top wide receiver, but they lost to a worse opponent at home last week. This situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.
With all of that said, my expectations couldn't get much lower, so if Baltimore finds a way to get out of Minnesota with a win, they'll improve to 4-3 and actually have a decent chance to win two of their next three games. The Dolphins did beat the Falcons last week, but they're still beatable, especially in Baltimore. The Titans will be a tougher opponent now that Marcus Mariota is healthy, but the Packers are incalculably worse without Aaron Rodgers. That leaves home games against the Texans and Lions that could both be quite tough, followed by road games against the Steelers and hopeless Browns. The Ravens then end their season in a two-game home stand against the Colts and Bengals.
If I had to take an optimistic guess, I'd say going forward that the Ravens should beat the Dolphins, Packers, Lions, Browns, and Colts. Baltimore then simply has to find a way to beat one or two of the other remaining teams: the Vikings, Titans, Texans, Steelers, and Bengals. It that sounds overoptimistic to you, that's because it probably is, but for all of their faults, this coaching staff often finds a way to fix early season problems enough to make a second half run. The problem is that recent late-season pushes have fallen short such as those in 2013 and 2016. Hopefully a comparatively weak schedule and the lack of truly strong teams in the AFC will allow the Ravens to grind out wins down the stretch, but this team MUST find an offensive identity and put the ball into the endzone on a regular basis. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 7 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT BILLS- The Bills lost a close game in Cincinnati last week, but they've beaten quality teams thus far with wins over the Falcons, Broncos, and Jets. BILLS 33-21
TITANS AT BROWNS- The Titans are starting to heat up and it's just another losing year for the Browns. If the Browns are going to win a game this season, this would likely have to be it, but I don't see any reason to assume they will. TITANS 24-16
PANTHERS AT BEARS- Somehow the Panthers actually play better on the road than at home this season. The Bears have the overtime number of every AFC North team they've played so far, but they haven't been able to beat anyone else. This will be closer than Carolina would like though. PANTHERS 27-23
SAINTS AT PACKERS- No Rodgers? No winning. SAINTS 38-14
JAGUARS AT COLTS- The Colts' only wins were incredibly close and against the worst two teams in the league. JAGUARS 35-10
CARDINALS AT RAMS- It's difficult to know how each of these teams will respond to the trip to London this week. Adrian Peterson had a breakout week last week, but it will be tough for him to find the same success against a much tougher Rams run defense. This is a Rams offense that put up 27 points against a rather scary Jaguars defense last week. RAMS 34-21
JETS AT DOLPHINS- It would appear as though the Dolphins have improved as of late. Beating the Titans without Marcus Mariota didn't appear much of a feat, but their subsequent win against the Falcons in Atlanta showed this Dolphins team is starting to find its groove. The Jets had the Dolphins number roughly a month ago, but this should be a much closer game. DOLPHINS 23-20
COWBOYS AT 49ERS- The last 5 of the 49ers' losses have each been by a field goal or less. It's amazing how an 0-6 team can be so insanely close to being 5-1. The Cowboys might seem like a much better team, but they're only 2-3 themselves. I'd like to say this is the week the 49ers finally edge an opponent, but they seem to play up or down to their opponents, and always fall just barely short. COWBOYS 31-28
SEAHAWKS AT GIANTS- The Giants mysteriously got their first win against a tough Broncos defense in Denver last week, but the most confusing part is that all three of the Giants' top wide receivers are done for the season. It's difficult to imagine that same trend will continue this week against the Seahawks. The Giants are 0-2 at home, and the Seahawks are coming off of a bye week. In their last game, Seattle held a rather potent Rams offense to a mere 10 points. SEAHAWKS 23-17
BENGALS AT STEELERS- The Bengals, believe it or not, have actually gotten significantly better since their embarrassing start to the season. They only barely lost to the Packers 3 a month ago, and they trounced the Browns 31-7 before beating out a strong Bills team last week. The Steelers, meanwhile, are still battling through real offensive issues, but they were able to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. It's a bad idea to bet against the Steelers going up against the Bengals at home. This could easily go so very wrong for Big Ben, but the Bengals will likely be outgunned in this one. STEELERS 27-21
BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- After a white hot start to the season, the Broncos have lost two of their last 3 games and only narrowly beat a Raiders team without Derek Carr. The Chargers, meanwhile, have found a way to win their last two games and only barely lost to the Broncos in Denver. Home field advantage should tip this in the Bolts' favor. CHARGERS 21-17
FALCONS AT PATRIOTS- Neither of these teams is anywhere near as good as the last year's Super Bowl version of itself. I would give a homefield advantage to the Patriots, but they're 1-2 at home this season and the Falcons are 2-0 on the road. With that said, the Falcons have lost their last two games while the Patriots have won 4 of their last 5. Neither of these teams plays particularly good defense and both have a penchant for finding themselves in close games. PATRIOTS 31-28
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- Without Josh Norman, I can't see the Redskins beating the Eagles. The Redskins defense allowed a winless 49ers team to take them right down to the wire last night, but they'll need a far greater effort against the Eagles--and I don't think they'll get it. EAGLES 33-20
RAVENS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings may have gotten a gift facing the Packers without Aaron Rodgers for most of last week's game, but the Ravens got a gift facing the Bears with a rookie quarterback and no serious wide receivers. That didn't stop the Ravens from losing that game at home. No matter who is out, the Vikings still probably have a more talented roster than the Ravens at this point. Until the Ravens give me reason to think they've fixed their offensive problems, I simply can't predict a win against a decent team such as the 4-2 Vikings. Baltimore will struggle against any team with a top 10 defense this season. VIKINGS 24-20
I WISH I COULD BE MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE RAVENS CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, BUT IT'S THE RAVENS JOB TO SHOW US WE HAVE REASON TO BE OPTIMISTIC. WITH THAT SAID, THIS IS A BADLY WOUNDED VIKINGS TEAM, AND IF THE RAVENS DO THEIR JOB, THEY COULD EDGE MINNESOTA AND COME HOME VICTORIOUS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Friends of mine have debated with me about the reason for the Ravens' struggles this year, and it seems as though they all wish that simply firing a coordinator or two would suddenly bring the team back to the glory of the early part of this decade. I even have one particular friend who insisted that the Ravens should have known they'd struggle because they invested "nothing" into their offense in the off-season as he cited the defense-heavy draft. I reminded him, however, that the Ravens had invested their previous two first round draft picks on a left tackle and a wide receiver, and they got another starting offensive linemen and starting running back in the 2016 draft--they just happen to both be on injured reserve. When you list them all out, the injuries to starting offensive players are so many and impactful that it's no surprise that the team struggles to move the football. Alex Lewis, Marshal Yanda, Danny Woodhead, Kenneth Dixon, Darren Waller, Dennis Pitta, Crocket Gillmore, Terrence West, and now Breshad Perriman have all had major injuries, and most of them have been season-ending. Joe Flacco hasn't missed any playing time, but its safe to say that much of the Ravens offensive plans were designed conservatively in an effort to keep Joe from aggravating whatever back injury kept him sidelined during the pre-season.
The Ravens aren't the New England Patriots; they can't simply turn to former lacrosse players or some guy who just got off the evening shift at Denny's to win a Super Bowl. They don't have an offensive system set in place, and they don't have an offensive guru as a head coach. Instead what they have is a revolving door of offensive coordinators, and a quarterback with the highest salary cap hit in the entire league. Joe Flacco showed the world in 2012 that he could outduel the best quarterbacks of a generation en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Fast-forward five years and Flacco has demonstrated zero growth or progress despite being in the league for an entire decade. He has a strong arm, but lacks the vision, footwork, and ability to read a defense that the rest of the league's highest paid quarterbacks all possess.
So what was the difference between the Baltimore Ravens of 2008-2012 and the Ravens from 2013 to now? Injuries have certainly been quite a theme in recent years, but two things stand out to me: Ray Rice and an offensive line full of Pro Bowlers. The Ravens briefly experienced impressive production from Justin Forsett in 2014 within the system and guidance of Gary Kubiak, but Forsett's career was essentially ended when he broke his arm against the San Diego Chargers in 2015, and he was no sort of long term replacement for Rice. For a 4 year period from 2009-2012, Ray Rice was the most productive running back in the league. He is one of only two running backs in league history with multiple seasons with over 1200 yards rushing and 700 yards receiving. Rice served not only as a workhorse, but also as a spectacular pass-catching back. It might seem like ancient history now, but there was a period in the not-too-distant past where the Ravens were statistically guaranteed to win games where Rice touched the ball 25 times or more, and they lost most of the games where Rice touched the ball fewer than 20 times. The now-disgraced running back could break off runs of 50 or 75 yards and break a game wide open.
Ray Rice's career has been over now for years, but the points stands that the Ravens have looked to get production out of players essentially cast off from other teams, and they haven't truly invested at the position since spending a second round pick on little Ray in 2008. With that said, the Ravens appear to have an unlikely playmaker in the explosive Alex Collins who currently leads the NFL in yards per carry with 6.4. The Ravens actually rank 7th in the league running the football thus far, but they're not so good running the ball that their ranking has translated into touchdowns. This has much to do with the fact that the Ravens simply don't possess an offensive line capable of pass-blocking at a consistently high level. From 2011-2012, the Ravens had a host of Pro Bowl offensive linemen including Ben Grubbs, Matt Birk, Marshal Yanda, Bryant McKinney. Even Michael Oher was a quality right tackle at that point in his career, and that line protected Flacco well enough to give him the time to execute a copious number of scoring drives complete with a league high number of deep passes. Oh, and when Joe didn't have receivers open, he had Ray Rice as a reliable check-down target to keep the chains moving.
It's possible that having Alex Lewis, Marshal Yanda, and Danny Woodhead or Kenneth Dixon back would mean Flacco would have a similar set of tools at his disposal right now, but three of those four players are on injured reserve, so speculation is meaningless at this point. What isn't speculation is that the Ravens aren't equipped with the tools to move the football at the level of 2011 or 2012. I am still curious to see what the return of Danny Woodhead will bring considering just how easily the Ravens moved down the field when he was in on the first offensive drive of the season, but it seems naïve to think that a single aging running back will turn the season around considering his recently issue with injuries.
It's not that the Ravens haven't tried to add playmakers to this team--they absolutely have. Ozzie Newsome and company made a bid to try to trade for Adrian Peterson within the last two weeks, and they brought former Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold in for a visit during the off-season. The Ravens even cut backup offensive guard Tony Bergstrom in what was likely an attempt to find a more effective free agent guard or to make a trade for another guard that could step in immediately and be more reliable and productive than Matt Skura, Jermaine Elumaenor, or Tony Bergstrom. The market must've been quite dry as the Ravens promptly re-signed Bergstrom in the last 24 hours for depth.
The factors that have led the Ravens to struggle over the past 5 seasons have been too numerous to simply point to one or two things as the reason they've only made the playoffs once during that stretch. A lack of quality corners and safeties had been a major theme, but the Ravens did all they could to make that problem go away. The Ravens drafted a host of offensive linemen and found some impressive talent, but too much of that talent has become injured as of late. Whether the issues are defensive or offensive, one thing is for certain: signing major free agents would be dramatically easier if Joe Flacco's cap hit reflected his current quarterback ranking.
The Ravens have twice gone on the road this season and beaten teams to whom many assumed they'd lose. The Vikings, like the Ravens, have been snake-bitten by injuries as of late. The injuries to major starters on the Vikings may actually be more profound than those of the Ravens, but the Vikings have found ways to win their last two games anyway. Minnesota, in fact, beat the same Bears team that just edged the Ravens last week. The return of Brandon Williams may mean the Ravens defense will once again be the elite unit it appeared to be in the first two weeks of the season, but until that happens, it's clear the Vikings have a better defense. The Ravens D, for example, gave up a franchise record 231 rushing yards last week, and that was to a team that could barely pass the football. Without Sam Bradford, Dalvin Cook, and Stefon Diggs, it's tough to imagine the Vikings being particularly explosive, but Ravens fans assumed the same thing about the Bears last week.
To add to Baltimore's offensive woes, the Ravens receiving corps is more banged up now than at any point this season. It appears as though both Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace will play, but Breshad Perriman is dealing with a serious concussion and could miss significant time. Michael Campanaro and Chris Moore will have to step up in Perriman's place, but Wallace and Maclin must finally reach the level of production they were signed to produce.
Suffice it to say that I don't believe for one moment that this will be the week the Ravens offense finds some sort of miraculous rhythm. The Vikings may have the best defense the Ravens have faced to this point, and Baltimore's offense is most short-staffed than ever. The only two things that could tilt things in favor of the Ravens are major offensive schematic adjustments, but nothing we've seen thus far would lead us to believe that Marty Mornhinweg is likely to do anything of the sort. This is probably the most pessimistic I've ever been before a game wherein a Ravens opponent is missing its starting quarterback, running back, and top wide receiver, but they lost to a worse opponent at home last week. This situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.
With all of that said, my expectations couldn't get much lower, so if Baltimore finds a way to get out of Minnesota with a win, they'll improve to 4-3 and actually have a decent chance to win two of their next three games. The Dolphins did beat the Falcons last week, but they're still beatable, especially in Baltimore. The Titans will be a tougher opponent now that Marcus Mariota is healthy, but the Packers are incalculably worse without Aaron Rodgers. That leaves home games against the Texans and Lions that could both be quite tough, followed by road games against the Steelers and hopeless Browns. The Ravens then end their season in a two-game home stand against the Colts and Bengals.
If I had to take an optimistic guess, I'd say going forward that the Ravens should beat the Dolphins, Packers, Lions, Browns, and Colts. Baltimore then simply has to find a way to beat one or two of the other remaining teams: the Vikings, Titans, Texans, Steelers, and Bengals. It that sounds overoptimistic to you, that's because it probably is, but for all of their faults, this coaching staff often finds a way to fix early season problems enough to make a second half run. The problem is that recent late-season pushes have fallen short such as those in 2013 and 2016. Hopefully a comparatively weak schedule and the lack of truly strong teams in the AFC will allow the Ravens to grind out wins down the stretch, but this team MUST find an offensive identity and put the ball into the endzone on a regular basis. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 7 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT BILLS- The Bills lost a close game in Cincinnati last week, but they've beaten quality teams thus far with wins over the Falcons, Broncos, and Jets. BILLS 33-21
TITANS AT BROWNS- The Titans are starting to heat up and it's just another losing year for the Browns. If the Browns are going to win a game this season, this would likely have to be it, but I don't see any reason to assume they will. TITANS 24-16
PANTHERS AT BEARS- Somehow the Panthers actually play better on the road than at home this season. The Bears have the overtime number of every AFC North team they've played so far, but they haven't been able to beat anyone else. This will be closer than Carolina would like though. PANTHERS 27-23
SAINTS AT PACKERS- No Rodgers? No winning. SAINTS 38-14
JAGUARS AT COLTS- The Colts' only wins were incredibly close and against the worst two teams in the league. JAGUARS 35-10
CARDINALS AT RAMS- It's difficult to know how each of these teams will respond to the trip to London this week. Adrian Peterson had a breakout week last week, but it will be tough for him to find the same success against a much tougher Rams run defense. This is a Rams offense that put up 27 points against a rather scary Jaguars defense last week. RAMS 34-21
JETS AT DOLPHINS- It would appear as though the Dolphins have improved as of late. Beating the Titans without Marcus Mariota didn't appear much of a feat, but their subsequent win against the Falcons in Atlanta showed this Dolphins team is starting to find its groove. The Jets had the Dolphins number roughly a month ago, but this should be a much closer game. DOLPHINS 23-20
COWBOYS AT 49ERS- The last 5 of the 49ers' losses have each been by a field goal or less. It's amazing how an 0-6 team can be so insanely close to being 5-1. The Cowboys might seem like a much better team, but they're only 2-3 themselves. I'd like to say this is the week the 49ers finally edge an opponent, but they seem to play up or down to their opponents, and always fall just barely short. COWBOYS 31-28
SEAHAWKS AT GIANTS- The Giants mysteriously got their first win against a tough Broncos defense in Denver last week, but the most confusing part is that all three of the Giants' top wide receivers are done for the season. It's difficult to imagine that same trend will continue this week against the Seahawks. The Giants are 0-2 at home, and the Seahawks are coming off of a bye week. In their last game, Seattle held a rather potent Rams offense to a mere 10 points. SEAHAWKS 23-17
BENGALS AT STEELERS- The Bengals, believe it or not, have actually gotten significantly better since their embarrassing start to the season. They only barely lost to the Packers 3 a month ago, and they trounced the Browns 31-7 before beating out a strong Bills team last week. The Steelers, meanwhile, are still battling through real offensive issues, but they were able to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. It's a bad idea to bet against the Steelers going up against the Bengals at home. This could easily go so very wrong for Big Ben, but the Bengals will likely be outgunned in this one. STEELERS 27-21
BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- After a white hot start to the season, the Broncos have lost two of their last 3 games and only narrowly beat a Raiders team without Derek Carr. The Chargers, meanwhile, have found a way to win their last two games and only barely lost to the Broncos in Denver. Home field advantage should tip this in the Bolts' favor. CHARGERS 21-17
FALCONS AT PATRIOTS- Neither of these teams is anywhere near as good as the last year's Super Bowl version of itself. I would give a homefield advantage to the Patriots, but they're 1-2 at home this season and the Falcons are 2-0 on the road. With that said, the Falcons have lost their last two games while the Patriots have won 4 of their last 5. Neither of these teams plays particularly good defense and both have a penchant for finding themselves in close games. PATRIOTS 31-28
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- Without Josh Norman, I can't see the Redskins beating the Eagles. The Redskins defense allowed a winless 49ers team to take them right down to the wire last night, but they'll need a far greater effort against the Eagles--and I don't think they'll get it. EAGLES 33-20
RAVENS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings may have gotten a gift facing the Packers without Aaron Rodgers for most of last week's game, but the Ravens got a gift facing the Bears with a rookie quarterback and no serious wide receivers. That didn't stop the Ravens from losing that game at home. No matter who is out, the Vikings still probably have a more talented roster than the Ravens at this point. Until the Ravens give me reason to think they've fixed their offensive problems, I simply can't predict a win against a decent team such as the 4-2 Vikings. Baltimore will struggle against any team with a top 10 defense this season. VIKINGS 24-20
I WISH I COULD BE MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE RAVENS CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, BUT IT'S THE RAVENS JOB TO SHOW US WE HAVE REASON TO BE OPTIMISTIC. WITH THAT SAID, THIS IS A BADLY WOUNDED VIKINGS TEAM, AND IF THE RAVENS DO THEIR JOB, THEY COULD EDGE MINNESOTA AND COME HOME VICTORIOUS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, October 14, 2017
WEEK 6 NFL PREDICTIONS
Beating a struggling Raiders team without its starting quarterback might not seem like a particularly impressive feat, and it probably wasn't. The Raiders began the first month of their season on relatively shaky ground before losing Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr. Without Carr, the Raiders offense was left in the hands of a man who hasn't won a football game as a starter in several seasons. The vast majority of sports pundits, however, still predicted the Ravens would lose in their trip across the country last weekend--it's a good thing they didn't.
The Raiders were exactly the type of opponent the Ravens needed following two depressing losses in a row. Playing in Oakland offered opportunities for success as well as opportunities to prove the team had corrected major mistakes it made over the previous two weeks. The Raiders defense was ranked in the lower half of the league, so the Baltimore's offense was able to find its footing and rhythm, but they still had the challenge of finding ways to fix pass protection to keep pass rushers such as Khalil Mack at bay. The Raiders offense was without its most integral cog, but it still had an elusive, mobile backup quarterback who beat the Ravens in his last matchup against Baltimore in 2013 as well as several strong offensive weapons such as Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, and Marshawn Lynch who all have given the Ravens fits in seasons past.
At this point a reader might be thinking that beating a decapitated team doesn't mean the Ravens have necessarily improved to the degree necessary to beat quality opponents but at this point, which teams would even be considered elite in the AFC? The Chiefs are unbeaten and look incredibly explosive, but they're not on the Ravens regular season schedule. The Patriots are usually terrifying, but they, like the Ravens, are 3-2 and fortunate not to be 2-3 after their last opponent's kicker missed three makeable field goals in a game decided by less than a touchdown. The Steelers beat the Ravens, but they were just drubbed 30-9 by a Jaguars team that could probably beat anyone on one of their good days and lose to anyone on a bad day. The Texans looked ferocious after putting up 57 points two weeks ago, but they're coming off a loss in which they allowed the Chiefs to put up 43 points in Houston and lost J.J. Watt for the season.
So who then has a better record than the Ravens in the AFC? That would be the Chiefs and no one else. No AFC team has more than 3 wins, and each team with 3 wins has looked incredibly flawed at times. Of the three NFC teams with better records than the Ravens, only one, Green Bay, is coming up on Baltimore's schedule. What lays before Baltimore is a fantastic opportunity to head into their bye week 6-3 or even 7-2. Coming up next are the Chicago Bears, and despite a strong defense, their offense is led by a rookie quarterback who displayed almost a total inability to complete a pass under pressure in his first start--he literally only completed one pass when pressured. Mitch Trubisky will have an embarrassingly limited number of receiving weapons at his disposal as Markus Wheaton has already been ruled out and the only other remotely notable wide receiver on the depth chart is Kendall Wright. To make matters worse for Chicago, the Ravens have never lost at home to a rookie quarterback under John Harbaugh.
Following the Bears, Flacco and company will face presumably their greatest challenge of the upcoming month with a road trip to Minnesota to face the Vikings. The Vikings have possessed one of the league's fastest, most ferocious defenses over the last two seasons, but their offense has taken three major hits as of late. Dynamic starting running back, Dalvin Cook, tore his ACL recently, Sam Bradford was pulled from Monday night's game and is out with a knee injury, and former University of Maryland receiver and speed demon Stefon Diggs has already been announced as not playing against the Packers this weekend. Cook is on injured reserve, Bradford is as good as out, and if Diggs is still out when his team travels to Baltimore, the Vikings' ability to score will be profoundly limited against a fairly strong, opportunistic Ravens defense.
Four days after facing the Vikings at home, the Ravens will turn their attention to a Dolphins team that is 2-2, but their only wins have come against the struggling 1-4 Chargers and the Titans without Marcus Mariota. The Titans also happen to be the final team Baltimore will face before the bye week. By the time the Ravens face the Titans, it's possible Marcus Mariota could be healthy, but the mobile quarterback is rehabbing an injured hamstring, and that is one of the easiest muscles to reinjure because of the physics and explosive nature of running. One of the strongest aspects of Mariota's game is his ability to scramble out of a collapsing pocket and make plays. A nagging hamstring injury could render Mariota far less mobile and leave him a sitting duck for the likes of Terrell Suggs.
Baltimore SHOULD be favored to win all four of their remaining games before their bye week. Not because the Ravens are amazing, but because their opponents have glaring weaknesses from absences and injuries to personnel. Entering the bye week 7-2 would be the best start the Ravens have managed since the 2012 Super Bowl season when they began the year on a 9-2 run. In fact, it's vitally important that Baltimore beats all or nearly all of their pre-bye opponents, because the post-bye back end of the season has far tougher challenges looming. The bye week actually comes at a fantastic time as it is situated just before a road trip to Green Bay. Baltimore will head into Green Bay rested and with an added weapon known as Danny Woodhead.
Danny Woodhead played only in the Ravens' season-opening offensive drive, but he displayed fantastic hands, the ability to get open quickly, and immediate chemistry with Joe. Woodhead looked more like a slot receiver, and he lined up as one at times as he converted 3 first downs on the catches. Having a pass-catching back/slot receiver who can move the chains consistently will be tremendous for Flacco in a season where the Ravens have seen their fair share of players go down with major injuries.
Maurice Canady and Jaylen Hill are two other players set to return within the next month who could make a tremendous difference in a Ravens defense that has been uneven to say the least. Baltimore put on 3 strong defensive performances in their wins but also two puzzling meltdowns in their losses. The Ravens need the return of Hill and Canady to get Lardarius Webb out of his starting nickelback role. Webb is a fantastic tackler, and he can be used as a quality backup safety or he can be brought as a surprisingly effective blitzer, but Lardarius no longer possesses the elite coverage skills he displayed earlier in his career. The veteran defensive back simply gets beat too often to be trusted to cover quick slot receivers. Hill and Canady bring youthful speed and quickness to a position that requires exactly that. The Ravens outside corners have performed extremely well thus far, and first round pick Marlon Humprey has jumped in for Jimmy Smith so seamlessly that the defense no longer drops off a cliff if he leaves the game.
One player whose absence appeared, at least initially, to lead to a massive drop-off in Baltimore's defensive production was Brandon Williams. Williams' presence in the middle of the defensive line is not to be underestimated as his physical dominance frees up the likes of Suggs and the Ravens' younger pass rushers. Initially the Ravens defense looked absolutely lost without it's centerpiece, but then Willie Henry began to grow up quickly. Henry has displayed excellent technique and brutal strength shedding blockers to stuff the run, and he's batted down a handful of passes at critical moments to force opposing offenses off the field. So while Brandon William's absence may have led to a collapse against the Jaguars, it has also given the opportunity for a former fourth round pick to quickly mature into a starting-caliber player. From this point on, if Brandon Williams has to come off the field, Baltimore knows that the defensive line won't miss a beat.
By now you've hopefully realized the message I'm making my best efforts to convey: the Ravens aren't perfect, but reinforcements are on the way and this team could and should actually get better two thirds of the way through the season. If in fact the Ravens want to get back to the playoffs, they MUST get better following the bye week, and they MUST find a way to win most if not all of their next four games against weakened opponents. With that, it's time to take a look at the matchups for this week!
WEEK 6 NFL PICKS
DOLPHINS AT FALCONS- Not a tremendous amount of thoughtful analysis required for this one. The Dolphins have won half their games so far, but they'll need to get much better to be able to go into Atlanta and take down the Falcons. FALCONS 34-21
PACKERS AT VIKINGS- A strong Minnesota defense and divisional familiarity will keep this close through the first half, but the Vikings are missing their starting quarterback, their most dynamic receiver, and their explosive starting running back. The Packers, meanwhile, have only lost a single game and it was to the Falcons in Atlanta. PACKERS 28-17
LIONS AT SAINTS- The Lions got off to a great start, but they've dropped two of their last three games. The only game Detroit won over the last three weeks was against a Vikings team with nearly all of their biggest offensive pieces sidelined. The Saints, on the other hand, began the season poorly but have come on as of late with a 20-0 shutout of the Dolphins and a dominant 34-13 win over the Panthers in Charlotte. Adrian Peterson is no longer a washed up distraction. Good move, Saints. SAINTS 33-24
PATRIOTS AT JETS- Only barely beating the Browns last week doesn't exactly inspire my confidence in the New York Jets despite their current 3-game winning streak. The only win over an impressive opponent during that stretch was their 23-20 win over the Jaguars. The Patriots have the same 3-2 record as the Jets, but their list of opponents has been insanely hard thus far. The Patriots have played the Chiefs, Saints, Panthers, Texans, and Buccaneers so far, and only lost narrowly to the Panthers and more handedly to the unbeaten Chiefs. New England's defense will be without Stephon Gilmore, and it hasn't put up a particularly dominant performance yet unless you're willing to include last week when they benefitted from 3 quite makeable field goals that the Buccaneers kicker missed. The Patriots truly haven't been the same after losing Julian Edelman even after getting Gronk back and acquiring Brandin Cooks, but I still think they've put together more wins over quality opponents than the Jets so far. PATRIOTS 27-23
49ERS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins' only losses thus far have come against two of the top 4 teams in the league. It's difficult to go across the country and win, but even harder when you're playing a tough team and your team is totally winless on the season. REDSKINS 31-14
BROWNS AT TEXANS- The Texans have come back down to Earth, but this is not the week or the venue that the Browns get their first win. TEXANS 38-20
BUCCANEERS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals' only wins were squeakers over two of the absolute worst teams in the league. The Bucs are a decent team and going on the road won't be enough to stop them from outscoring Carson Palmer's offense. BUCCANEERS 30-21
RAMS AT JAGUARS- The Texans have alternated each week between dominating a quality opponent and losing in head-scratching to an undeniably inferior opponent. Part of that is their dependence on turnovers to stop opposing offenses. Their offense is not consistent enough to move the football without the benefit of short fields gained by takeaways their defense has secured. Throttling the Texans, Ravens, and Steelers but then losing to the Titans and Jets leaves me wondering which team will show up on Sunday against the Rams. The Rams have actually also looked pretty strong this season with a great running game and solid defense. This is probably the toughest game to predict of the week, but I'm going to stick to the Jaguars' current pattern. RAMS 23-17
STEELERS AT CHIEFS- The Steelers beat the Ravens soundly and they have strong pieces on both offense and defense. Pittsburgh, however, is going on the road against an unbeaten Chiefs team that simply looks faster and more explosive than the Steelers at this point. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't look quite right this season, and his consideration of retirement over the summer should have been a clue to many that his body is feeling the effects of over 14 seasons of toughing it out through brutal hits and injuries. Ben doesn't seem to possess the same velocity on the football that he once did, and that led to a career high 5 interceptions last week. The Chiefs did lose wide receiver Chris Conley to an Achilles tear last week, but Alex Smith is surprisingly playing the best football of his career at the age of 33. Smith has done it all with a surprising level of mobility given his age. CHIEFS 31-28
CHARGERS AT RAIDERS- The Chargers, despite their atrocious record, have gained a little steam as of late. They narrowly lost to an impressive Eagles team two weeks ago and then beat the Giants last week. Derek Carr will play this week, but it's difficult to know which Derek Carr will show up given his recovery from back and knee injuries this season. Carr must appear to be good enough to go that the team feels comfortable bringing him back only 2 weeks after suffering his back injury. If Carr truly is good to go, this has to go in favor of the Raiders, but it'll be close. RAIDERS 28-24
GIANTS AT BRONCOS- The Giants are without all three of their heralded top wide receivers, and they weren't even having a good season when those guys were healthy. BRONCOS 34-10
COLTS AT TITANS- Marcus Mariota is reportedly going to be a game-time decision for Monday night, but Andrew Luck is only just getting in reps with the scout team offense and not a possibility to start this week. The Colts have found a little more success without Andrew Luck than the Titans have without Marcus Mariota, but the Colts defense struggles horribly on the road with 92 total points allowed in their only two road games thus far. TITANS 31-13
BEARS AT RAVENS- The Bears have no top level receiving threats, but they do have a solid defense. It is for this reason that the Ravens might initially struggle to develop a sizeable lead, but Chicago's offense won't be on the field long enough to give their defense a breather, and Baltimore's offense should be able to ultimately find a rhythm. If the Vikings can beat this team without their starting quarterback, running back, and top wide receiver, the Ravens should be able to beat them too. RAVENS 26-17
CAN THE RAVENS GO ON A RUN BEFORE THE BYE WEEK? LET'S HOPE SO. IF THEY'RE GOING TO STOCKPILE WINS, THIS WOULD BE THE STRETCH TO DO IT!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
The Raiders were exactly the type of opponent the Ravens needed following two depressing losses in a row. Playing in Oakland offered opportunities for success as well as opportunities to prove the team had corrected major mistakes it made over the previous two weeks. The Raiders defense was ranked in the lower half of the league, so the Baltimore's offense was able to find its footing and rhythm, but they still had the challenge of finding ways to fix pass protection to keep pass rushers such as Khalil Mack at bay. The Raiders offense was without its most integral cog, but it still had an elusive, mobile backup quarterback who beat the Ravens in his last matchup against Baltimore in 2013 as well as several strong offensive weapons such as Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, and Marshawn Lynch who all have given the Ravens fits in seasons past.
At this point a reader might be thinking that beating a decapitated team doesn't mean the Ravens have necessarily improved to the degree necessary to beat quality opponents but at this point, which teams would even be considered elite in the AFC? The Chiefs are unbeaten and look incredibly explosive, but they're not on the Ravens regular season schedule. The Patriots are usually terrifying, but they, like the Ravens, are 3-2 and fortunate not to be 2-3 after their last opponent's kicker missed three makeable field goals in a game decided by less than a touchdown. The Steelers beat the Ravens, but they were just drubbed 30-9 by a Jaguars team that could probably beat anyone on one of their good days and lose to anyone on a bad day. The Texans looked ferocious after putting up 57 points two weeks ago, but they're coming off a loss in which they allowed the Chiefs to put up 43 points in Houston and lost J.J. Watt for the season.
So who then has a better record than the Ravens in the AFC? That would be the Chiefs and no one else. No AFC team has more than 3 wins, and each team with 3 wins has looked incredibly flawed at times. Of the three NFC teams with better records than the Ravens, only one, Green Bay, is coming up on Baltimore's schedule. What lays before Baltimore is a fantastic opportunity to head into their bye week 6-3 or even 7-2. Coming up next are the Chicago Bears, and despite a strong defense, their offense is led by a rookie quarterback who displayed almost a total inability to complete a pass under pressure in his first start--he literally only completed one pass when pressured. Mitch Trubisky will have an embarrassingly limited number of receiving weapons at his disposal as Markus Wheaton has already been ruled out and the only other remotely notable wide receiver on the depth chart is Kendall Wright. To make matters worse for Chicago, the Ravens have never lost at home to a rookie quarterback under John Harbaugh.
Following the Bears, Flacco and company will face presumably their greatest challenge of the upcoming month with a road trip to Minnesota to face the Vikings. The Vikings have possessed one of the league's fastest, most ferocious defenses over the last two seasons, but their offense has taken three major hits as of late. Dynamic starting running back, Dalvin Cook, tore his ACL recently, Sam Bradford was pulled from Monday night's game and is out with a knee injury, and former University of Maryland receiver and speed demon Stefon Diggs has already been announced as not playing against the Packers this weekend. Cook is on injured reserve, Bradford is as good as out, and if Diggs is still out when his team travels to Baltimore, the Vikings' ability to score will be profoundly limited against a fairly strong, opportunistic Ravens defense.
Four days after facing the Vikings at home, the Ravens will turn their attention to a Dolphins team that is 2-2, but their only wins have come against the struggling 1-4 Chargers and the Titans without Marcus Mariota. The Titans also happen to be the final team Baltimore will face before the bye week. By the time the Ravens face the Titans, it's possible Marcus Mariota could be healthy, but the mobile quarterback is rehabbing an injured hamstring, and that is one of the easiest muscles to reinjure because of the physics and explosive nature of running. One of the strongest aspects of Mariota's game is his ability to scramble out of a collapsing pocket and make plays. A nagging hamstring injury could render Mariota far less mobile and leave him a sitting duck for the likes of Terrell Suggs.
Baltimore SHOULD be favored to win all four of their remaining games before their bye week. Not because the Ravens are amazing, but because their opponents have glaring weaknesses from absences and injuries to personnel. Entering the bye week 7-2 would be the best start the Ravens have managed since the 2012 Super Bowl season when they began the year on a 9-2 run. In fact, it's vitally important that Baltimore beats all or nearly all of their pre-bye opponents, because the post-bye back end of the season has far tougher challenges looming. The bye week actually comes at a fantastic time as it is situated just before a road trip to Green Bay. Baltimore will head into Green Bay rested and with an added weapon known as Danny Woodhead.
Danny Woodhead played only in the Ravens' season-opening offensive drive, but he displayed fantastic hands, the ability to get open quickly, and immediate chemistry with Joe. Woodhead looked more like a slot receiver, and he lined up as one at times as he converted 3 first downs on the catches. Having a pass-catching back/slot receiver who can move the chains consistently will be tremendous for Flacco in a season where the Ravens have seen their fair share of players go down with major injuries.
Maurice Canady and Jaylen Hill are two other players set to return within the next month who could make a tremendous difference in a Ravens defense that has been uneven to say the least. Baltimore put on 3 strong defensive performances in their wins but also two puzzling meltdowns in their losses. The Ravens need the return of Hill and Canady to get Lardarius Webb out of his starting nickelback role. Webb is a fantastic tackler, and he can be used as a quality backup safety or he can be brought as a surprisingly effective blitzer, but Lardarius no longer possesses the elite coverage skills he displayed earlier in his career. The veteran defensive back simply gets beat too often to be trusted to cover quick slot receivers. Hill and Canady bring youthful speed and quickness to a position that requires exactly that. The Ravens outside corners have performed extremely well thus far, and first round pick Marlon Humprey has jumped in for Jimmy Smith so seamlessly that the defense no longer drops off a cliff if he leaves the game.
One player whose absence appeared, at least initially, to lead to a massive drop-off in Baltimore's defensive production was Brandon Williams. Williams' presence in the middle of the defensive line is not to be underestimated as his physical dominance frees up the likes of Suggs and the Ravens' younger pass rushers. Initially the Ravens defense looked absolutely lost without it's centerpiece, but then Willie Henry began to grow up quickly. Henry has displayed excellent technique and brutal strength shedding blockers to stuff the run, and he's batted down a handful of passes at critical moments to force opposing offenses off the field. So while Brandon William's absence may have led to a collapse against the Jaguars, it has also given the opportunity for a former fourth round pick to quickly mature into a starting-caliber player. From this point on, if Brandon Williams has to come off the field, Baltimore knows that the defensive line won't miss a beat.
By now you've hopefully realized the message I'm making my best efforts to convey: the Ravens aren't perfect, but reinforcements are on the way and this team could and should actually get better two thirds of the way through the season. If in fact the Ravens want to get back to the playoffs, they MUST get better following the bye week, and they MUST find a way to win most if not all of their next four games against weakened opponents. With that, it's time to take a look at the matchups for this week!
WEEK 6 NFL PICKS
DOLPHINS AT FALCONS- Not a tremendous amount of thoughtful analysis required for this one. The Dolphins have won half their games so far, but they'll need to get much better to be able to go into Atlanta and take down the Falcons. FALCONS 34-21
PACKERS AT VIKINGS- A strong Minnesota defense and divisional familiarity will keep this close through the first half, but the Vikings are missing their starting quarterback, their most dynamic receiver, and their explosive starting running back. The Packers, meanwhile, have only lost a single game and it was to the Falcons in Atlanta. PACKERS 28-17
LIONS AT SAINTS- The Lions got off to a great start, but they've dropped two of their last three games. The only game Detroit won over the last three weeks was against a Vikings team with nearly all of their biggest offensive pieces sidelined. The Saints, on the other hand, began the season poorly but have come on as of late with a 20-0 shutout of the Dolphins and a dominant 34-13 win over the Panthers in Charlotte. Adrian Peterson is no longer a washed up distraction. Good move, Saints. SAINTS 33-24
PATRIOTS AT JETS- Only barely beating the Browns last week doesn't exactly inspire my confidence in the New York Jets despite their current 3-game winning streak. The only win over an impressive opponent during that stretch was their 23-20 win over the Jaguars. The Patriots have the same 3-2 record as the Jets, but their list of opponents has been insanely hard thus far. The Patriots have played the Chiefs, Saints, Panthers, Texans, and Buccaneers so far, and only lost narrowly to the Panthers and more handedly to the unbeaten Chiefs. New England's defense will be without Stephon Gilmore, and it hasn't put up a particularly dominant performance yet unless you're willing to include last week when they benefitted from 3 quite makeable field goals that the Buccaneers kicker missed. The Patriots truly haven't been the same after losing Julian Edelman even after getting Gronk back and acquiring Brandin Cooks, but I still think they've put together more wins over quality opponents than the Jets so far. PATRIOTS 27-23
49ERS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins' only losses thus far have come against two of the top 4 teams in the league. It's difficult to go across the country and win, but even harder when you're playing a tough team and your team is totally winless on the season. REDSKINS 31-14
BROWNS AT TEXANS- The Texans have come back down to Earth, but this is not the week or the venue that the Browns get their first win. TEXANS 38-20
BUCCANEERS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals' only wins were squeakers over two of the absolute worst teams in the league. The Bucs are a decent team and going on the road won't be enough to stop them from outscoring Carson Palmer's offense. BUCCANEERS 30-21
RAMS AT JAGUARS- The Texans have alternated each week between dominating a quality opponent and losing in head-scratching to an undeniably inferior opponent. Part of that is their dependence on turnovers to stop opposing offenses. Their offense is not consistent enough to move the football without the benefit of short fields gained by takeaways their defense has secured. Throttling the Texans, Ravens, and Steelers but then losing to the Titans and Jets leaves me wondering which team will show up on Sunday against the Rams. The Rams have actually also looked pretty strong this season with a great running game and solid defense. This is probably the toughest game to predict of the week, but I'm going to stick to the Jaguars' current pattern. RAMS 23-17
STEELERS AT CHIEFS- The Steelers beat the Ravens soundly and they have strong pieces on both offense and defense. Pittsburgh, however, is going on the road against an unbeaten Chiefs team that simply looks faster and more explosive than the Steelers at this point. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't look quite right this season, and his consideration of retirement over the summer should have been a clue to many that his body is feeling the effects of over 14 seasons of toughing it out through brutal hits and injuries. Ben doesn't seem to possess the same velocity on the football that he once did, and that led to a career high 5 interceptions last week. The Chiefs did lose wide receiver Chris Conley to an Achilles tear last week, but Alex Smith is surprisingly playing the best football of his career at the age of 33. Smith has done it all with a surprising level of mobility given his age. CHIEFS 31-28
CHARGERS AT RAIDERS- The Chargers, despite their atrocious record, have gained a little steam as of late. They narrowly lost to an impressive Eagles team two weeks ago and then beat the Giants last week. Derek Carr will play this week, but it's difficult to know which Derek Carr will show up given his recovery from back and knee injuries this season. Carr must appear to be good enough to go that the team feels comfortable bringing him back only 2 weeks after suffering his back injury. If Carr truly is good to go, this has to go in favor of the Raiders, but it'll be close. RAIDERS 28-24
GIANTS AT BRONCOS- The Giants are without all three of their heralded top wide receivers, and they weren't even having a good season when those guys were healthy. BRONCOS 34-10
COLTS AT TITANS- Marcus Mariota is reportedly going to be a game-time decision for Monday night, but Andrew Luck is only just getting in reps with the scout team offense and not a possibility to start this week. The Colts have found a little more success without Andrew Luck than the Titans have without Marcus Mariota, but the Colts defense struggles horribly on the road with 92 total points allowed in their only two road games thus far. TITANS 31-13
BEARS AT RAVENS- The Bears have no top level receiving threats, but they do have a solid defense. It is for this reason that the Ravens might initially struggle to develop a sizeable lead, but Chicago's offense won't be on the field long enough to give their defense a breather, and Baltimore's offense should be able to ultimately find a rhythm. If the Vikings can beat this team without their starting quarterback, running back, and top wide receiver, the Ravens should be able to beat them too. RAVENS 26-17
CAN THE RAVENS GO ON A RUN BEFORE THE BYE WEEK? LET'S HOPE SO. IF THEY'RE GOING TO STOCKPILE WINS, THIS WOULD BE THE STRETCH TO DO IT!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
Sunday, October 8, 2017
WEEK 5 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Baltimore Ravens just spent the last two weeks displaying an unparalleled level of ineptitude compared to that of the rest of John Harbaugh's tenure as head coach. It certainly wasn't the first time the Ravens lost consecutive games, and it wasn't nearly the first time the Ravens have been blown out under Harbaugh's guidance. It was, however, the first time during the current regime that the Ravens have displayed such an inability to score in consecutive weeks with a healthy Joe Flacco.
I've listened to arguments from friends and co-workers that the issue is coaching, and I've heard others say the issue is personnel, but it's quite clearly a combination of the two. Then, of course, there's Flacco's back injury. The nature of Joe's back injury was kept quite purposely ambiguous by the Ravens staff. It was originally reported to be a disk issue, and then the Ravens corrected that report and stated it was not. It's entirely possible the problem was simply muscular in nature, and I'm inclined to believe that considering the number of hits Joe has taken and still gotten right back up. As someone who has suffered since the age of 18 with pressure on his sciatic nerve from a bulging disk, I can safely say that it takes much less than punishing hits to leave one immobile and in utter agony on the ground.
Whether it be muscular or spinal in nature, Joe Flacco's injury has led to the team to be cautious about the types of plays and situations to which the veteran quarterback is exposed. That worked for about the first two weeks of the season, and maybe Marshal Yanda's exit had as profound an impact as many believe, but the Ravens ran the ball down the throat of the Bengals with and without Marshall Yanda three weeks ago. I think, instead, the Ravens put together a plan to take pressure off Joe and keep him relatively untouched and unharmed, but that plan was easily dissected by both the Jaguars and Steelers coaching staffs. To make matters worse, when both backup right guards struggled to handle pass rush, the offensive staff failed to make creative and effective enough adjustments to compensate for a lack of protection on the right side.
The Ravens starting offensive tackles, ironically, might comprise the best tackle tandem in the league. Ronnie Stanley and Austin Howard both rank in the top ten in both pass protection and run blocking for offensive tackles in the league, and Howard actually ranks second overall in run blocking thus far. Having excellent tackles and injured interior offensive linemen isn't exactly a new situation for the Ravens. Both Alex Lewis and Marshal Yanda suffered from major injuries last season, and even though the Ravens ultimately finished 8-8, they never struggled this hard to move the football.
What does all of this mean then? Well it likely means that the Ravens offensive staff is going to have to come to grips with the fact that they simply won't be able to impose their will on the ground the way they did against the Bengals now that Marshal Yanda is out for the season. They cannot simply hope to run the ball down the throats of opposing defenses without first spreading them out to a degree through the air. With strong tackles and blocking tight ends but poor interior linemen, the Ravens are going to have to design plays to allow Joe to roll out of the pocket to find receivers deep downfield the way he did in Gary Kubiak's schemes in 2014. It seems silly that what should be the fastest receiving cops in team history has proven easily the most dysfunctional thus far. The Ravens shouldn't abandon the run. On the contrary, they should absolutely use a more balanced attack, but they need to find ways to buy time for Joe to find receivers further downfield rather than simply relegating themselves to forcing the run and having Joe throw almost exclusively short passes out of fear.
The Oakland Raiders provide a good opportunity to get the offense going. Unlike the Steelers, the Raiders don't have a highly ranked pass defense. Oakland's pass defense, despite the ferocious pass-rushing of Khalil Mack, ranks 20th in the league, and their run defense is even worse at 24th. The absence of Derek Carr unquestionably takes pressure off the Ravens defense, but Carr's backup, E.J. Manuel, beat the Ravens with the Bills in 2013 despite his own lackluster performance. Even with Carr the Raiders were struggling to get their offense going not unlike the Ravens.
The fact that this game is on the West Coast adds another challenge for Baltimore. The Ravens have struggled since the 2013 season to win games on long road trips, and they've twice lost to the Raiders during that time. This game might seem to some like a chance to face a decapitated team, but I'd more characterize it as an opportunity to show that they can make adjustments and once again run a functioning offense and stout defense on the road. Khalil Mack will likely terrorize any offensive linemen he faces, and Jack Del Rio typically schemes well against the Ravens no matter which team he's coaching. The Ravens staff will have to find ways to account for and neutralize Mack in order to move the ball. This game is no sort of slam dunk, but it's an opportunity to get back on the right track.
Many Ravens fans may have already resigned themselves to belief that this team simply isn't good enough to make the playoffs this season, let alone make a legitimate run at a Super Bowl. It certainly appears that way right now, and I couldn't blame anyone for believing that. The Ravens have been once again snake-bitten by injuries early on, and the season-long or at least lengthy absences of players such as Dixon, Yanda, Lewis, Gillmore, Young, Williams, and Woodhead would appear to league Baltimore without too many key pieces. I would argue, however, that Baltimore still has enough impact players to beat the teams they'll face over the next month as those teams are all dealing with quite significant injuries themselves. The question will be whether or not the coaching staff can figure out ways to put the players they have in positions to be successful. The return of Brandon Williams and Danny Woodhead should provide a spark on both sides of the ball, and replacing Lardarius Webb with Jaylen Hill as nickel corner should alleviate major issues in the secondary. This isn't yet a good team, but they can be if pointed in the right direction.
Because of the late nature of this post, I apologize that I'm going to have to post the predictions for each game with just scores as I've run out of time to type explanations for each.
THE PICKS
BILLS AT BENGALS- BENGALS 27-17
JETS AT BROWNS- JETS 23-14
PANTHERS AT LIONS- LIONS 38-20
49ERS AT COLTS- COLTS 31-28
TITANS AT DOLPHINS- DOLPHINS 17-14
CHARGERS AT GIANTS- CHARGERS 26-23
CARDINALS AT EAGLES- EAGLES 33-21
JAGUARS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 28-17
SEAHAWKS AT RAMS- RAMS 30-24
PACKERS AT COWBOYS- PACKERS 34-28
CHIEFS AT TEXANS- TEXANS 38-27
VIKINGS AT BEARS- VIKINGS 23-13
RAVENS AT RAIDERS- RAVENS 23-17
IF THE RAVENS LOSE A GAME AGAINST A STRUGGLING TEAM WITHOUT ITS STARTING QB, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WEEK I CAN REASONABLY PICK THEM TO WIN UNTIL THEY MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES. LET'S HOPE THEY DON'T MAKE ME LOOK LIKE A FOOL.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
I've listened to arguments from friends and co-workers that the issue is coaching, and I've heard others say the issue is personnel, but it's quite clearly a combination of the two. Then, of course, there's Flacco's back injury. The nature of Joe's back injury was kept quite purposely ambiguous by the Ravens staff. It was originally reported to be a disk issue, and then the Ravens corrected that report and stated it was not. It's entirely possible the problem was simply muscular in nature, and I'm inclined to believe that considering the number of hits Joe has taken and still gotten right back up. As someone who has suffered since the age of 18 with pressure on his sciatic nerve from a bulging disk, I can safely say that it takes much less than punishing hits to leave one immobile and in utter agony on the ground.
Whether it be muscular or spinal in nature, Joe Flacco's injury has led to the team to be cautious about the types of plays and situations to which the veteran quarterback is exposed. That worked for about the first two weeks of the season, and maybe Marshal Yanda's exit had as profound an impact as many believe, but the Ravens ran the ball down the throat of the Bengals with and without Marshall Yanda three weeks ago. I think, instead, the Ravens put together a plan to take pressure off Joe and keep him relatively untouched and unharmed, but that plan was easily dissected by both the Jaguars and Steelers coaching staffs. To make matters worse, when both backup right guards struggled to handle pass rush, the offensive staff failed to make creative and effective enough adjustments to compensate for a lack of protection on the right side.
The Ravens starting offensive tackles, ironically, might comprise the best tackle tandem in the league. Ronnie Stanley and Austin Howard both rank in the top ten in both pass protection and run blocking for offensive tackles in the league, and Howard actually ranks second overall in run blocking thus far. Having excellent tackles and injured interior offensive linemen isn't exactly a new situation for the Ravens. Both Alex Lewis and Marshal Yanda suffered from major injuries last season, and even though the Ravens ultimately finished 8-8, they never struggled this hard to move the football.
What does all of this mean then? Well it likely means that the Ravens offensive staff is going to have to come to grips with the fact that they simply won't be able to impose their will on the ground the way they did against the Bengals now that Marshal Yanda is out for the season. They cannot simply hope to run the ball down the throats of opposing defenses without first spreading them out to a degree through the air. With strong tackles and blocking tight ends but poor interior linemen, the Ravens are going to have to design plays to allow Joe to roll out of the pocket to find receivers deep downfield the way he did in Gary Kubiak's schemes in 2014. It seems silly that what should be the fastest receiving cops in team history has proven easily the most dysfunctional thus far. The Ravens shouldn't abandon the run. On the contrary, they should absolutely use a more balanced attack, but they need to find ways to buy time for Joe to find receivers further downfield rather than simply relegating themselves to forcing the run and having Joe throw almost exclusively short passes out of fear.
The Oakland Raiders provide a good opportunity to get the offense going. Unlike the Steelers, the Raiders don't have a highly ranked pass defense. Oakland's pass defense, despite the ferocious pass-rushing of Khalil Mack, ranks 20th in the league, and their run defense is even worse at 24th. The absence of Derek Carr unquestionably takes pressure off the Ravens defense, but Carr's backup, E.J. Manuel, beat the Ravens with the Bills in 2013 despite his own lackluster performance. Even with Carr the Raiders were struggling to get their offense going not unlike the Ravens.
The fact that this game is on the West Coast adds another challenge for Baltimore. The Ravens have struggled since the 2013 season to win games on long road trips, and they've twice lost to the Raiders during that time. This game might seem to some like a chance to face a decapitated team, but I'd more characterize it as an opportunity to show that they can make adjustments and once again run a functioning offense and stout defense on the road. Khalil Mack will likely terrorize any offensive linemen he faces, and Jack Del Rio typically schemes well against the Ravens no matter which team he's coaching. The Ravens staff will have to find ways to account for and neutralize Mack in order to move the ball. This game is no sort of slam dunk, but it's an opportunity to get back on the right track.
Many Ravens fans may have already resigned themselves to belief that this team simply isn't good enough to make the playoffs this season, let alone make a legitimate run at a Super Bowl. It certainly appears that way right now, and I couldn't blame anyone for believing that. The Ravens have been once again snake-bitten by injuries early on, and the season-long or at least lengthy absences of players such as Dixon, Yanda, Lewis, Gillmore, Young, Williams, and Woodhead would appear to league Baltimore without too many key pieces. I would argue, however, that Baltimore still has enough impact players to beat the teams they'll face over the next month as those teams are all dealing with quite significant injuries themselves. The question will be whether or not the coaching staff can figure out ways to put the players they have in positions to be successful. The return of Brandon Williams and Danny Woodhead should provide a spark on both sides of the ball, and replacing Lardarius Webb with Jaylen Hill as nickel corner should alleviate major issues in the secondary. This isn't yet a good team, but they can be if pointed in the right direction.
Because of the late nature of this post, I apologize that I'm going to have to post the predictions for each game with just scores as I've run out of time to type explanations for each.
THE PICKS
BILLS AT BENGALS- BENGALS 27-17
JETS AT BROWNS- JETS 23-14
PANTHERS AT LIONS- LIONS 38-20
49ERS AT COLTS- COLTS 31-28
TITANS AT DOLPHINS- DOLPHINS 17-14
CHARGERS AT GIANTS- CHARGERS 26-23
CARDINALS AT EAGLES- EAGLES 33-21
JAGUARS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 28-17
SEAHAWKS AT RAMS- RAMS 30-24
PACKERS AT COWBOYS- PACKERS 34-28
CHIEFS AT TEXANS- TEXANS 38-27
VIKINGS AT BEARS- VIKINGS 23-13
RAVENS AT RAIDERS- RAVENS 23-17
IF THE RAVENS LOSE A GAME AGAINST A STRUGGLING TEAM WITHOUT ITS STARTING QB, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WEEK I CAN REASONABLY PICK THEM TO WIN UNTIL THEY MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES. LET'S HOPE THEY DON'T MAKE ME LOOK LIKE A FOOL.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
Sunday, October 1, 2017
WEEK 4 NFL PREDICTIONS
Last week displayed the reason I regard predictions during the first month of the season as educated guesses at best. No major sports writer or commentator predicted the Ravens to lose, let alone get blown out, by the Jaguars. Baltimore, for whatever reason or combination of reasons, looked slow and timid. They made the Jaguars, by contrast, appear explosive and electric, which was in stark contrast to the way the Jags looked the week before in their loss to the Titans. It is, therefore, vitally important to remember that football is the most schematically complicated major team sport in the world, and even a good team that fails to plan and prepare for literally any professional opponent can suffer a demoralizing upset.
Last week's loss, in contrast the previous two dominant wins over divisional opponents, illustrates another important theme that has helped to determine the outcome of thousands of games from the high school level to the NFL. That theme is familiarity. The Ravens have face the Bengals and Browns twice a year, and Baltimore's players and coaching staff have a decent idea of what to expect and which weaknesses to attack. Despite beating the Jaguars on the road last year, the Ravens simply don't have that level of familiarity with Jacksonville.
Luckily for Harbaugh's guys, Baltimore DOES have that level of familiarity with Tomlin's squad, and the Steelers are coming off of a road loss of their own--albeit not even remotely as devastating, but a loss nonetheless. The Ravens have recently beaten the Steelers even more short-staffed than they currently find themselves, and they're 6-2 against Pittsburgh in their last 8 games (9-4 over their last 13). The demoralizing Christmas Day loss in Pittsburgh after taking the lead with just over a minute and a half left in the game was etched into the minds of Ravens players and staff over the course of the off-season. Yes, the Ravens lost many other games last season that could have secured them a playoff spot had they instead won, but what's certain on any given year in the AFC North is facing the Steelers, Bengals, and Browns twice each. It should, thus, come as no surprise that the Ravens player personnel department would put much of their effort and resources into building a team capable of securing wins against their inevitable divisional opponents.
That isn't to say that the Ravens are as fully equipped to win this game as they had planned. The loss of Marshal Yanda and the at least temporary absence of Brandon Williams mean the two greatest physical forces on the team won't suit up against Baltimore's most heat rival. The Ravens 17 players on IR are the most in the league and an absolutely staggering amount for this point in the regular season. If there was ever a time for the "next man up" philosophy to kick into high gear, it would be right now.
Amid the horror and disappointment of last week's loss in London came strong performances from at least a few players who may prove pivotal against the Steelers. Marlon Humphrey put on a great display of physical, athletic coverage that was an absolute upgrade over anything provided by scrap heap corners the Ravens have thrust into starting roles out of necessity over the past several years. His play along with the health and dominant play of Jimmy Smith will go far to limit the likes of Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. Brandon Carr provides sound, physical coverage that will likely be effective against the Steelers' #3 receiver as well. The Ravens secondary is overall vastly upgraded over that of the one that allowed the Steelers to drive the length of the field with less than two minutes last Christmas.
Another bright spot last week and the two weeks prior was the explosive running of Alex Collins. Collins did cough the football up in the middle of a spin move against the Bengals in Week 1, but his speed, burst, and yards after contact are noticeably superior to those of Buck Allen and Terrence West as is evidenced by his staggering yards per carry average (7.8) which ranks third in the NFL. Collins put up nearly 80 rushing yards in the 4th quarter alone last week while the other two Ravens running backs combined for under 50. Given the Steelers inability to stop the Bears rushing attack last week, it would make a terrific amount of sense for the Ravens to give Collins a significant number of carries this week.
The Jaguars appeared to have a fantastic game plan to take away the Ravens' ability to rush the passer last week, and it had a lot to do with quarterback mobility and picking on the Ravens' linebackers in pass coverage with tight ends. Ben Roethlisberger is so far beyond the level of Blake Bortles that it's funny to mention in the same sentence, but I'll give Bortles credit for looking far faster than Ben has looked in recent years. The Ravens have seldom struggles to get pressure on Big Ben during this decade, and that has had been one of the greatest contributors to the Ravens overwhelming win loss record against Pittsburgh since 2011. Ravens fans can only hope that the sensational pass rush displayed in the first two weeks returns against the Steelers.
One thing the Ravens have yet to do in ANY of their first three games is establish a passing rhythm to their top 4 speedy wide receivers. Given the fact that the Steelers have a top 10 ranked pass defense, it's difficult to imagine that Flacco would have a monumental day through the air, but it's still possible that we at least see an improvement in his ability to connect with what should be the most the most explosive receiving corps in the history of the team.
A win today would do much to re-establish confidence in Baltimore and secure a lead in the divisional race. A loss would not feel good, but it wouldn't be the end of the world either. One way or another, things must improve for this team to show it can return to the playoffs, and what better opportunity to demonstrate that than against an opponent the Ravens have mostly dominated over the past 6 years? Alright, now it's time for the picks!
WEEK 4 NFL PICKS
SAINTS AT DOLPHINS- Almost nothing has gone right for the Dolphins since bringing in Jay Cutler. The Saints are probably not going to do much in the league this year, but they're good enough to beat an opponent that just lost to the Jets 20-6. Let's hope Miami can pull out of this funk and make things interesting. SAINTS 28-10
BILLS AT FALCONS- The Bills aren't totally useless, but they aren't good enough to beat one of the only two unbeaten teams in the league in Atlanta. FALCONS 34-17
BENGALS AT BROWNS- Both of these teams have been competitive in one or two games thus far despite being totally winless, but the Browns are at a distinct disadvantage without their #1 wide receiver Corey Coleman. BENGALS 24-20
RAMS AT COWBOYS- The Rams are a mighty team at home, but a road loss to the Redskins and a narrow road win over the 49ers in San Fran didn't exactly inspire confidence that the Rams can go into Dallas and take a win from a 2-1 Cowboys team that appear to be finding it's offensive rhythm again. COWBOYS 35-21
LIONS AT VIKINGS- I typically give an advantage in closely matched divisional games to the home team, but I like what the Lions are doing this year. Losing to the Falcons is nothing feel too horrible about, and otherwise the Lions have looked pretty dominant. LIONS 31-28
PANTHERS AT PATRIOTS- I must admit that the Patriots haven't looked nearly as dominant as they have in past year with an upset home loss in Week 1 against to the Chiefs and two games against mediocre teams that were way too close for comfort for Tom and Bill. The Panthers, however, just don't have enough defensively to stop the Patriots, and they DEFINITELY don't have enough offense to outscore them. PATRIOTS 27-21
JAGUARS AT JETS- The Jaguars truly impressed me with their explosive play in every phase of the game last week. They will crush the Jets. JAGUARS 38-3
TITANS AT TEXANS- I like what the Texans have been able to do as of late with the rise of their young quarterback. If they can nearly beat the Patriots in Foxborough, they can defend their home turf against the Titans...but this is gonna be a battle. TEXANS 21-17
49ERS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals lost last week, but I believe they'll round into form against a 49ers team that lacks much of a chance for success this season. CARDINALS 28-21
EAGLES AT CHARGERS- I think the Eagles are a better team than the Chargers, but the Chargers typically feast on teams making the trip across the country to face them. CHARGERS 24-17
GIANTS AT BUCCANEERS- The winless Giants aren't going to break that streak this week against a promising young Buccaneers squad in Tampa Bay. BUCCANEERS 30-23
RAIDERS AT BRONCOS- The Raiders and Broncos both lost last week, but I'd put my money on Denver rebounding from their loss at home over the Raiders producing an upset. It's difficult to place too much stock in a team that depends heavily on a quarterback less than 9 months removed from an ACL tear--especially if that quarterback previously relied upon his mobility to make plays. BRONCOS 26-19
COLTS AT SEAHAWKS- I've been surprised by the ineptitude of the Seahawks thus far, and the Colts got into a nice rhythm last week, even if it was against the Browns. I may regret doing this, but I'm picking an upset here. COLTS 27-24
REDSKINS AT CHIEFS- The Redskins appear to be improving, but the Chiefs are the most dominant team in the AFC thus far and enjoy a serious homefield advantage. CHIEFS 42-28
STEELERS AT RAVENS- The Steelers haven't put together a dominant win yet, and their loss last week displayed some serious flaws in the ways they run-blitz and stunt. The Ravens pass rush should return to at least a moderate level because Ben is slower than younger QBs, even if he is sometimes tough to bring down. The Ravens might be short-handed up front, but they have enough defensively to slow this familiar foe. The Ravens quick passing game will finally get going again once the run has been established, and the running game will help bleed the clock in the forth quarter to prevent the dreaded late-game Steelers comeback. RAVENS 28-24
IF THE RAVENS CAN'T WIN THIS WEEK, IT'll BE A TALL TASK TO GO ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND BEAT THE RAIDERS NEXT SUNDAY, BUT I HAVE A FEELING THEY'LL GET BACK TO FORM AT HOME AGAINST THEIR BIGGEST RIVALS.
NOW AND FOREVERGO RAVENS!!!
Last week's loss, in contrast the previous two dominant wins over divisional opponents, illustrates another important theme that has helped to determine the outcome of thousands of games from the high school level to the NFL. That theme is familiarity. The Ravens have face the Bengals and Browns twice a year, and Baltimore's players and coaching staff have a decent idea of what to expect and which weaknesses to attack. Despite beating the Jaguars on the road last year, the Ravens simply don't have that level of familiarity with Jacksonville.
Luckily for Harbaugh's guys, Baltimore DOES have that level of familiarity with Tomlin's squad, and the Steelers are coming off of a road loss of their own--albeit not even remotely as devastating, but a loss nonetheless. The Ravens have recently beaten the Steelers even more short-staffed than they currently find themselves, and they're 6-2 against Pittsburgh in their last 8 games (9-4 over their last 13). The demoralizing Christmas Day loss in Pittsburgh after taking the lead with just over a minute and a half left in the game was etched into the minds of Ravens players and staff over the course of the off-season. Yes, the Ravens lost many other games last season that could have secured them a playoff spot had they instead won, but what's certain on any given year in the AFC North is facing the Steelers, Bengals, and Browns twice each. It should, thus, come as no surprise that the Ravens player personnel department would put much of their effort and resources into building a team capable of securing wins against their inevitable divisional opponents.
That isn't to say that the Ravens are as fully equipped to win this game as they had planned. The loss of Marshal Yanda and the at least temporary absence of Brandon Williams mean the two greatest physical forces on the team won't suit up against Baltimore's most heat rival. The Ravens 17 players on IR are the most in the league and an absolutely staggering amount for this point in the regular season. If there was ever a time for the "next man up" philosophy to kick into high gear, it would be right now.
Amid the horror and disappointment of last week's loss in London came strong performances from at least a few players who may prove pivotal against the Steelers. Marlon Humphrey put on a great display of physical, athletic coverage that was an absolute upgrade over anything provided by scrap heap corners the Ravens have thrust into starting roles out of necessity over the past several years. His play along with the health and dominant play of Jimmy Smith will go far to limit the likes of Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. Brandon Carr provides sound, physical coverage that will likely be effective against the Steelers' #3 receiver as well. The Ravens secondary is overall vastly upgraded over that of the one that allowed the Steelers to drive the length of the field with less than two minutes last Christmas.
Another bright spot last week and the two weeks prior was the explosive running of Alex Collins. Collins did cough the football up in the middle of a spin move against the Bengals in Week 1, but his speed, burst, and yards after contact are noticeably superior to those of Buck Allen and Terrence West as is evidenced by his staggering yards per carry average (7.8) which ranks third in the NFL. Collins put up nearly 80 rushing yards in the 4th quarter alone last week while the other two Ravens running backs combined for under 50. Given the Steelers inability to stop the Bears rushing attack last week, it would make a terrific amount of sense for the Ravens to give Collins a significant number of carries this week.
The Jaguars appeared to have a fantastic game plan to take away the Ravens' ability to rush the passer last week, and it had a lot to do with quarterback mobility and picking on the Ravens' linebackers in pass coverage with tight ends. Ben Roethlisberger is so far beyond the level of Blake Bortles that it's funny to mention in the same sentence, but I'll give Bortles credit for looking far faster than Ben has looked in recent years. The Ravens have seldom struggles to get pressure on Big Ben during this decade, and that has had been one of the greatest contributors to the Ravens overwhelming win loss record against Pittsburgh since 2011. Ravens fans can only hope that the sensational pass rush displayed in the first two weeks returns against the Steelers.
One thing the Ravens have yet to do in ANY of their first three games is establish a passing rhythm to their top 4 speedy wide receivers. Given the fact that the Steelers have a top 10 ranked pass defense, it's difficult to imagine that Flacco would have a monumental day through the air, but it's still possible that we at least see an improvement in his ability to connect with what should be the most the most explosive receiving corps in the history of the team.
A win today would do much to re-establish confidence in Baltimore and secure a lead in the divisional race. A loss would not feel good, but it wouldn't be the end of the world either. One way or another, things must improve for this team to show it can return to the playoffs, and what better opportunity to demonstrate that than against an opponent the Ravens have mostly dominated over the past 6 years? Alright, now it's time for the picks!
WEEK 4 NFL PICKS
SAINTS AT DOLPHINS- Almost nothing has gone right for the Dolphins since bringing in Jay Cutler. The Saints are probably not going to do much in the league this year, but they're good enough to beat an opponent that just lost to the Jets 20-6. Let's hope Miami can pull out of this funk and make things interesting. SAINTS 28-10
BILLS AT FALCONS- The Bills aren't totally useless, but they aren't good enough to beat one of the only two unbeaten teams in the league in Atlanta. FALCONS 34-17
BENGALS AT BROWNS- Both of these teams have been competitive in one or two games thus far despite being totally winless, but the Browns are at a distinct disadvantage without their #1 wide receiver Corey Coleman. BENGALS 24-20
RAMS AT COWBOYS- The Rams are a mighty team at home, but a road loss to the Redskins and a narrow road win over the 49ers in San Fran didn't exactly inspire confidence that the Rams can go into Dallas and take a win from a 2-1 Cowboys team that appear to be finding it's offensive rhythm again. COWBOYS 35-21
LIONS AT VIKINGS- I typically give an advantage in closely matched divisional games to the home team, but I like what the Lions are doing this year. Losing to the Falcons is nothing feel too horrible about, and otherwise the Lions have looked pretty dominant. LIONS 31-28
PANTHERS AT PATRIOTS- I must admit that the Patriots haven't looked nearly as dominant as they have in past year with an upset home loss in Week 1 against to the Chiefs and two games against mediocre teams that were way too close for comfort for Tom and Bill. The Panthers, however, just don't have enough defensively to stop the Patriots, and they DEFINITELY don't have enough offense to outscore them. PATRIOTS 27-21
JAGUARS AT JETS- The Jaguars truly impressed me with their explosive play in every phase of the game last week. They will crush the Jets. JAGUARS 38-3
TITANS AT TEXANS- I like what the Texans have been able to do as of late with the rise of their young quarterback. If they can nearly beat the Patriots in Foxborough, they can defend their home turf against the Titans...but this is gonna be a battle. TEXANS 21-17
49ERS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals lost last week, but I believe they'll round into form against a 49ers team that lacks much of a chance for success this season. CARDINALS 28-21
EAGLES AT CHARGERS- I think the Eagles are a better team than the Chargers, but the Chargers typically feast on teams making the trip across the country to face them. CHARGERS 24-17
GIANTS AT BUCCANEERS- The winless Giants aren't going to break that streak this week against a promising young Buccaneers squad in Tampa Bay. BUCCANEERS 30-23
RAIDERS AT BRONCOS- The Raiders and Broncos both lost last week, but I'd put my money on Denver rebounding from their loss at home over the Raiders producing an upset. It's difficult to place too much stock in a team that depends heavily on a quarterback less than 9 months removed from an ACL tear--especially if that quarterback previously relied upon his mobility to make plays. BRONCOS 26-19
COLTS AT SEAHAWKS- I've been surprised by the ineptitude of the Seahawks thus far, and the Colts got into a nice rhythm last week, even if it was against the Browns. I may regret doing this, but I'm picking an upset here. COLTS 27-24
REDSKINS AT CHIEFS- The Redskins appear to be improving, but the Chiefs are the most dominant team in the AFC thus far and enjoy a serious homefield advantage. CHIEFS 42-28
STEELERS AT RAVENS- The Steelers haven't put together a dominant win yet, and their loss last week displayed some serious flaws in the ways they run-blitz and stunt. The Ravens pass rush should return to at least a moderate level because Ben is slower than younger QBs, even if he is sometimes tough to bring down. The Ravens might be short-handed up front, but they have enough defensively to slow this familiar foe. The Ravens quick passing game will finally get going again once the run has been established, and the running game will help bleed the clock in the forth quarter to prevent the dreaded late-game Steelers comeback. RAVENS 28-24
IF THE RAVENS CAN'T WIN THIS WEEK, IT'll BE A TALL TASK TO GO ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND BEAT THE RAIDERS NEXT SUNDAY, BUT I HAVE A FEELING THEY'LL GET BACK TO FORM AT HOME AGAINST THEIR BIGGEST RIVALS.
NOW AND FOREVERGO RAVENS!!!
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