WEEK 4 NFL PREDICTIONS

     Last week displayed the reason I regard predictions during the first month of the season as educated guesses at best.  No major sports writer or commentator predicted the Ravens to lose, let alone get blown out, by the Jaguars.  Baltimore, for whatever reason or combination of reasons, looked slow and timid.  They made the Jaguars, by contrast, appear explosive and electric, which was in stark contrast to the way the Jags looked the week before in their loss to the Titans.  It is, therefore, vitally important to remember that football is the most schematically complicated major team sport in the world, and even a good team that fails to plan and prepare for literally any professional opponent can suffer a demoralizing upset.

     Last week's loss, in contrast the previous two dominant wins over divisional opponents, illustrates another important theme that has helped to determine the outcome of thousands of games from the high school level to the NFL.  That theme is familiarity.  The Ravens have face the Bengals and Browns twice a year, and Baltimore's players and coaching staff have a decent idea of what to expect and which weaknesses to attack.  Despite beating the Jaguars on the road last year, the Ravens simply don't have that level of familiarity with Jacksonville. 

     Luckily for Harbaugh's guys, Baltimore DOES have that level of familiarity with Tomlin's squad, and the Steelers are coming off of a road loss of their own--albeit not even remotely as devastating, but a loss nonetheless.  The Ravens have recently beaten the Steelers even more short-staffed than they currently find themselves, and they're 6-2 against Pittsburgh in their last 8 games (9-4 over their last 13).  The demoralizing Christmas Day loss in Pittsburgh after taking the lead with just over a minute and a half left in the game was etched into the minds of Ravens players and staff over the course of the off-season.  Yes, the Ravens lost many other games last season that could have secured them a playoff spot had they instead won, but what's certain on any given year in the AFC North is facing the Steelers, Bengals, and Browns twice each.  It should, thus, come as no surprise that the Ravens player personnel department would put much of their effort and resources into building a team capable of securing wins against their inevitable divisional opponents. 

     That isn't to say that the Ravens are as fully equipped to win this game as they had planned.  The loss of Marshal Yanda and the at least temporary absence of Brandon Williams mean the two greatest physical forces on the team won't suit up against Baltimore's most heat rival.  The Ravens 17 players on IR are the most in the league and an absolutely staggering amount for this point in the regular season.  If there was ever a time for the "next man up" philosophy to kick into high gear, it would be right now. 

     Amid the horror and disappointment of last week's loss in London came strong performances from at least a few players who may prove pivotal against the Steelers.  Marlon Humphrey put on a great display of physical, athletic coverage that was an absolute upgrade over anything provided by scrap heap corners the Ravens have thrust into starting roles out of necessity over the past several years.  His play along with the health and dominant play of Jimmy Smith will go far to limit the likes of Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant.  Brandon Carr provides sound, physical coverage that will likely be effective against the Steelers' #3 receiver as well.  The Ravens secondary is overall vastly upgraded over that of the one that allowed the Steelers to drive the length of the field with less than two minutes last Christmas. 

    Another bright spot last week and the two weeks prior was the explosive running of Alex Collins.  Collins did cough the football up in the middle of a spin move against the Bengals in Week 1, but his speed, burst, and yards after contact are noticeably superior to those of Buck Allen and Terrence West as is evidenced by his staggering yards per carry average (7.8) which ranks third in the NFL.  Collins put up nearly 80 rushing yards in the 4th quarter alone last week while the other two Ravens running backs combined for under 50.  Given the Steelers inability to stop the Bears rushing attack last week, it would make a terrific amount of sense for the Ravens to give Collins a significant number of carries this week.

     The Jaguars appeared to have a fantastic game plan to take away the Ravens' ability to rush the passer last week, and it had a lot to do with quarterback mobility and picking on the Ravens' linebackers in pass coverage with tight ends.  Ben Roethlisberger is so far beyond the level of Blake Bortles that it's funny to mention in the same sentence, but I'll give Bortles credit for looking far faster than Ben has looked in recent years.  The Ravens have seldom struggles to get pressure on Big Ben during this decade, and that has had been one of the greatest contributors to the Ravens overwhelming win loss record against Pittsburgh since 2011.  Ravens fans can only hope that the sensational pass rush displayed in the first two weeks returns against the Steelers.

     One thing the Ravens have yet to do in ANY of their first three games is establish a passing rhythm to their top 4 speedy wide receivers.  Given the fact that the Steelers have a top 10 ranked pass defense, it's difficult to imagine that Flacco would have a monumental day through the air, but it's still possible that we at least see an improvement in his ability to connect with what should  be the most the most explosive receiving corps in the history of the team. 

     A win today would do much to re-establish confidence in Baltimore and secure a lead in the divisional race.  A loss would not feel good, but it wouldn't be the end of the world either.  One way or another, things must improve for this team to show it can return to the playoffs, and what better opportunity to demonstrate that than against an opponent the Ravens have mostly dominated over the past 6 years?  Alright, now it's time for the picks!

WEEK 4 NFL PICKS

SAINTS AT DOLPHINS- Almost nothing has gone right for the Dolphins since bringing in Jay Cutler.  The Saints are probably not going to do much in the league this year, but they're good enough to beat an opponent that just lost to the Jets 20-6.  Let's hope Miami can pull out of this funk and make things interesting.  SAINTS 28-10

BILLS AT FALCONS- The Bills aren't totally useless, but they aren't good enough to beat one of the only two unbeaten teams in the league in Atlanta.  FALCONS 34-17

BENGALS AT BROWNS- Both of these teams have been competitive in one or two games thus far despite being totally winless, but the Browns are at a distinct disadvantage without their #1 wide receiver Corey Coleman.  BENGALS 24-20

RAMS AT COWBOYS- The Rams are a mighty team at home, but a road loss to the Redskins and a narrow road win over the 49ers in San Fran didn't exactly inspire confidence that the Rams can go into Dallas and take a win from a 2-1 Cowboys team that appear to be finding it's offensive rhythm again.  COWBOYS 35-21

LIONS AT VIKINGS- I typically give an advantage in closely matched divisional games to the home team, but I like what the Lions are doing this year.  Losing to the Falcons is nothing feel too horrible about, and otherwise the Lions have looked pretty dominant. LIONS 31-28

PANTHERS AT PATRIOTS- I must admit that the Patriots haven't looked nearly as dominant as they have in past year with an upset home loss in Week 1 against to the Chiefs and two games against mediocre teams that were way too close for comfort for Tom and Bill.  The Panthers, however, just don't have enough defensively to stop the Patriots, and they DEFINITELY don't have enough offense to outscore them.  PATRIOTS 27-21

JAGUARS AT JETS-  The Jaguars truly impressed me with their explosive play in every phase of the game last week.  They will crush the Jets. JAGUARS 38-3

TITANS AT TEXANS- I like what the Texans have been able to do as of late with the rise of their young quarterback.  If they can nearly beat the Patriots in Foxborough, they can defend their home turf against the Titans...but this is gonna be a battle.  TEXANS 21-17

49ERS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals lost last week, but I believe they'll round into form against a 49ers team that lacks much of a chance for success this season.  CARDINALS 28-21

EAGLES AT CHARGERS- I think the Eagles are a better team than the Chargers, but the Chargers typically feast on teams making the trip across the country to face them.  CHARGERS 24-17

GIANTS AT BUCCANEERS- The winless Giants aren't going to break that streak this week against a promising young Buccaneers squad in Tampa Bay.  BUCCANEERS 30-23

RAIDERS AT BRONCOS- The Raiders and Broncos both lost last week, but I'd put my money on Denver rebounding from their loss at home over the Raiders producing an upset.  It's difficult to place too much stock in a team that depends heavily on a quarterback less than 9 months removed from an ACL tear--especially if that quarterback previously relied upon his mobility to make plays.  BRONCOS 26-19

COLTS AT SEAHAWKS- I've been surprised by the ineptitude of the Seahawks thus far, and the Colts got into a nice rhythm last week, even if it was against the Browns.  I may regret doing this, but I'm picking an upset here. COLTS 27-24

REDSKINS AT CHIEFS- The Redskins appear to be improving, but the Chiefs are the most dominant team in the AFC thus far and enjoy a serious homefield advantage.  CHIEFS 42-28

STEELERS AT RAVENS- The Steelers haven't put together a dominant win yet, and their loss last week displayed some serious flaws in the ways they run-blitz and stunt.  The Ravens pass rush should return to at least a moderate level because Ben is slower than younger QBs, even if he is sometimes tough to bring down.  The Ravens might be short-handed up front, but they have enough defensively to slow this familiar foe.  The Ravens quick passing game will finally get going again once the run has been established, and the running game will help bleed the clock in the forth quarter to prevent the dreaded late-game Steelers comeback.  RAVENS 28-24

IF THE RAVENS CAN'T WIN THIS WEEK, IT'll BE A TALL TASK TO GO ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND BEAT THE RAIDERS NEXT SUNDAY, BUT I HAVE A FEELING THEY'LL GET BACK TO FORM AT HOME AGAINST THEIR BIGGEST RIVALS.

NOW AND FOREVERGO RAVENS!!!