The past month of Ravens football has been absolutely miserable. Watching the Ravens get trounced in every phase of the game in London would have been the worst part if it hadn't then been followed by a loss to the Steelers at home and the Bear in overtime--also at home. The misery of the last month was only momentarily punctuated by a road win over a Raiders team missing its most vital player. It was nice to watch the Ravens get their offense going, but I had to constantly remain myself that the Raiders defense was next to useless despite the presence of Khalil Mack, and the win wasn't any indication that Baltimore had fixed major problems on offense.
Friends of mine have debated with me about the reason for the Ravens' struggles this year, and it seems as though they all wish that simply firing a coordinator or two would suddenly bring the team back to the glory of the early part of this decade. I even have one particular friend who insisted that the Ravens should have known they'd struggle because they invested "nothing" into their offense in the off-season as he cited the defense-heavy draft. I reminded him, however, that the Ravens had invested their previous two first round draft picks on a left tackle and a wide receiver, and they got another starting offensive linemen and starting running back in the 2016 draft--they just happen to both be on injured reserve. When you list them all out, the injuries to starting offensive players are so many and impactful that it's no surprise that the team struggles to move the football. Alex Lewis, Marshal Yanda, Danny Woodhead, Kenneth Dixon, Darren Waller, Dennis Pitta, Crocket Gillmore, Terrence West, and now Breshad Perriman have all had major injuries, and most of them have been season-ending. Joe Flacco hasn't missed any playing time, but its safe to say that much of the Ravens offensive plans were designed conservatively in an effort to keep Joe from aggravating whatever back injury kept him sidelined during the pre-season.
The Ravens aren't the New England Patriots; they can't simply turn to former lacrosse players or some guy who just got off the evening shift at Denny's to win a Super Bowl. They don't have an offensive system set in place, and they don't have an offensive guru as a head coach. Instead what they have is a revolving door of offensive coordinators, and a quarterback with the highest salary cap hit in the entire league. Joe Flacco showed the world in 2012 that he could outduel the best quarterbacks of a generation en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Fast-forward five years and Flacco has demonstrated zero growth or progress despite being in the league for an entire decade. He has a strong arm, but lacks the vision, footwork, and ability to read a defense that the rest of the league's highest paid quarterbacks all possess.
So what was the difference between the Baltimore Ravens of 2008-2012 and the Ravens from 2013 to now? Injuries have certainly been quite a theme in recent years, but two things stand out to me: Ray Rice and an offensive line full of Pro Bowlers. The Ravens briefly experienced impressive production from Justin Forsett in 2014 within the system and guidance of Gary Kubiak, but Forsett's career was essentially ended when he broke his arm against the San Diego Chargers in 2015, and he was no sort of long term replacement for Rice. For a 4 year period from 2009-2012, Ray Rice was the most productive running back in the league. He is one of only two running backs in league history with multiple seasons with over 1200 yards rushing and 700 yards receiving. Rice served not only as a workhorse, but also as a spectacular pass-catching back. It might seem like ancient history now, but there was a period in the not-too-distant past where the Ravens were statistically guaranteed to win games where Rice touched the ball 25 times or more, and they lost most of the games where Rice touched the ball fewer than 20 times. The now-disgraced running back could break off runs of 50 or 75 yards and break a game wide open.
Ray Rice's career has been over now for years, but the points stands that the Ravens have looked to get production out of players essentially cast off from other teams, and they haven't truly invested at the position since spending a second round pick on little Ray in 2008. With that said, the Ravens appear to have an unlikely playmaker in the explosive Alex Collins who currently leads the NFL in yards per carry with 6.4. The Ravens actually rank 7th in the league running the football thus far, but they're not so good running the ball that their ranking has translated into touchdowns. This has much to do with the fact that the Ravens simply don't possess an offensive line capable of pass-blocking at a consistently high level. From 2011-2012, the Ravens had a host of Pro Bowl offensive linemen including Ben Grubbs, Matt Birk, Marshal Yanda, Bryant McKinney. Even Michael Oher was a quality right tackle at that point in his career, and that line protected Flacco well enough to give him the time to execute a copious number of scoring drives complete with a league high number of deep passes. Oh, and when Joe didn't have receivers open, he had Ray Rice as a reliable check-down target to keep the chains moving.
It's possible that having Alex Lewis, Marshal Yanda, and Danny Woodhead or Kenneth Dixon back would mean Flacco would have a similar set of tools at his disposal right now, but three of those four players are on injured reserve, so speculation is meaningless at this point. What isn't speculation is that the Ravens aren't equipped with the tools to move the football at the level of 2011 or 2012. I am still curious to see what the return of Danny Woodhead will bring considering just how easily the Ravens moved down the field when he was in on the first offensive drive of the season, but it seems naïve to think that a single aging running back will turn the season around considering his recently issue with injuries.
It's not that the Ravens haven't tried to add playmakers to this team--they absolutely have. Ozzie Newsome and company made a bid to try to trade for Adrian Peterson within the last two weeks, and they brought former Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold in for a visit during the off-season. The Ravens even cut backup offensive guard Tony Bergstrom in what was likely an attempt to find a more effective free agent guard or to make a trade for another guard that could step in immediately and be more reliable and productive than Matt Skura, Jermaine Elumaenor, or Tony Bergstrom. The market must've been quite dry as the Ravens promptly re-signed Bergstrom in the last 24 hours for depth.
The factors that have led the Ravens to struggle over the past 5 seasons have been too numerous to simply point to one or two things as the reason they've only made the playoffs once during that stretch. A lack of quality corners and safeties had been a major theme, but the Ravens did all they could to make that problem go away. The Ravens drafted a host of offensive linemen and found some impressive talent, but too much of that talent has become injured as of late. Whether the issues are defensive or offensive, one thing is for certain: signing major free agents would be dramatically easier if Joe Flacco's cap hit reflected his current quarterback ranking.
The Ravens have twice gone on the road this season and beaten teams to whom many assumed they'd lose. The Vikings, like the Ravens, have been snake-bitten by injuries as of late. The injuries to major starters on the Vikings may actually be more profound than those of the Ravens, but the Vikings have found ways to win their last two games anyway. Minnesota, in fact, beat the same Bears team that just edged the Ravens last week. The return of Brandon Williams may mean the Ravens defense will once again be the elite unit it appeared to be in the first two weeks of the season, but until that happens, it's clear the Vikings have a better defense. The Ravens D, for example, gave up a franchise record 231 rushing yards last week, and that was to a team that could barely pass the football. Without Sam Bradford, Dalvin Cook, and Stefon Diggs, it's tough to imagine the Vikings being particularly explosive, but Ravens fans assumed the same thing about the Bears last week.
To add to Baltimore's offensive woes, the Ravens receiving corps is more banged up now than at any point this season. It appears as though both Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace will play, but Breshad Perriman is dealing with a serious concussion and could miss significant time. Michael Campanaro and Chris Moore will have to step up in Perriman's place, but Wallace and Maclin must finally reach the level of production they were signed to produce.
Suffice it to say that I don't believe for one moment that this will be the week the Ravens offense finds some sort of miraculous rhythm. The Vikings may have the best defense the Ravens have faced to this point, and Baltimore's offense is most short-staffed than ever. The only two things that could tilt things in favor of the Ravens are major offensive schematic adjustments, but nothing we've seen thus far would lead us to believe that Marty Mornhinweg is likely to do anything of the sort. This is probably the most pessimistic I've ever been before a game wherein a Ravens opponent is missing its starting quarterback, running back, and top wide receiver, but they lost to a worse opponent at home last week. This situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.
With all of that said, my expectations couldn't get much lower, so if Baltimore finds a way to get out of Minnesota with a win, they'll improve to 4-3 and actually have a decent chance to win two of their next three games. The Dolphins did beat the Falcons last week, but they're still beatable, especially in Baltimore. The Titans will be a tougher opponent now that Marcus Mariota is healthy, but the Packers are incalculably worse without Aaron Rodgers. That leaves home games against the Texans and Lions that could both be quite tough, followed by road games against the Steelers and hopeless Browns. The Ravens then end their season in a two-game home stand against the Colts and Bengals.
If I had to take an optimistic guess, I'd say going forward that the Ravens should beat the Dolphins, Packers, Lions, Browns, and Colts. Baltimore then simply has to find a way to beat one or two of the other remaining teams: the Vikings, Titans, Texans, Steelers, and Bengals. It that sounds overoptimistic to you, that's because it probably is, but for all of their faults, this coaching staff often finds a way to fix early season problems enough to make a second half run. The problem is that recent late-season pushes have fallen short such as those in 2013 and 2016. Hopefully a comparatively weak schedule and the lack of truly strong teams in the AFC will allow the Ravens to grind out wins down the stretch, but this team MUST find an offensive identity and put the ball into the endzone on a regular basis. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 7 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT BILLS- The Bills lost a close game in Cincinnati last week, but they've beaten quality teams thus far with wins over the Falcons, Broncos, and Jets. BILLS 33-21
TITANS AT BROWNS- The Titans are starting to heat up and it's just another losing year for the Browns. If the Browns are going to win a game this season, this would likely have to be it, but I don't see any reason to assume they will. TITANS 24-16
PANTHERS AT BEARS- Somehow the Panthers actually play better on the road than at home this season. The Bears have the overtime number of every AFC North team they've played so far, but they haven't been able to beat anyone else. This will be closer than Carolina would like though. PANTHERS 27-23
SAINTS AT PACKERS- No Rodgers? No winning. SAINTS 38-14
JAGUARS AT COLTS- The Colts' only wins were incredibly close and against the worst two teams in the league. JAGUARS 35-10
CARDINALS AT RAMS- It's difficult to know how each of these teams will respond to the trip to London this week. Adrian Peterson had a breakout week last week, but it will be tough for him to find the same success against a much tougher Rams run defense. This is a Rams offense that put up 27 points against a rather scary Jaguars defense last week. RAMS 34-21
JETS AT DOLPHINS- It would appear as though the Dolphins have improved as of late. Beating the Titans without Marcus Mariota didn't appear much of a feat, but their subsequent win against the Falcons in Atlanta showed this Dolphins team is starting to find its groove. The Jets had the Dolphins number roughly a month ago, but this should be a much closer game. DOLPHINS 23-20
COWBOYS AT 49ERS- The last 5 of the 49ers' losses have each been by a field goal or less. It's amazing how an 0-6 team can be so insanely close to being 5-1. The Cowboys might seem like a much better team, but they're only 2-3 themselves. I'd like to say this is the week the 49ers finally edge an opponent, but they seem to play up or down to their opponents, and always fall just barely short. COWBOYS 31-28
SEAHAWKS AT GIANTS- The Giants mysteriously got their first win against a tough Broncos defense in Denver last week, but the most confusing part is that all three of the Giants' top wide receivers are done for the season. It's difficult to imagine that same trend will continue this week against the Seahawks. The Giants are 0-2 at home, and the Seahawks are coming off of a bye week. In their last game, Seattle held a rather potent Rams offense to a mere 10 points. SEAHAWKS 23-17
BENGALS AT STEELERS- The Bengals, believe it or not, have actually gotten significantly better since their embarrassing start to the season. They only barely lost to the Packers 3 a month ago, and they trounced the Browns 31-7 before beating out a strong Bills team last week. The Steelers, meanwhile, are still battling through real offensive issues, but they were able to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. It's a bad idea to bet against the Steelers going up against the Bengals at home. This could easily go so very wrong for Big Ben, but the Bengals will likely be outgunned in this one. STEELERS 27-21
BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- After a white hot start to the season, the Broncos have lost two of their last 3 games and only narrowly beat a Raiders team without Derek Carr. The Chargers, meanwhile, have found a way to win their last two games and only barely lost to the Broncos in Denver. Home field advantage should tip this in the Bolts' favor. CHARGERS 21-17
FALCONS AT PATRIOTS- Neither of these teams is anywhere near as good as the last year's Super Bowl version of itself. I would give a homefield advantage to the Patriots, but they're 1-2 at home this season and the Falcons are 2-0 on the road. With that said, the Falcons have lost their last two games while the Patriots have won 4 of their last 5. Neither of these teams plays particularly good defense and both have a penchant for finding themselves in close games. PATRIOTS 31-28
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- Without Josh Norman, I can't see the Redskins beating the Eagles. The Redskins defense allowed a winless 49ers team to take them right down to the wire last night, but they'll need a far greater effort against the Eagles--and I don't think they'll get it. EAGLES 33-20
RAVENS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings may have gotten a gift facing the Packers without Aaron Rodgers for most of last week's game, but the Ravens got a gift facing the Bears with a rookie quarterback and no serious wide receivers. That didn't stop the Ravens from losing that game at home. No matter who is out, the Vikings still probably have a more talented roster than the Ravens at this point. Until the Ravens give me reason to think they've fixed their offensive problems, I simply can't predict a win against a decent team such as the 4-2 Vikings. Baltimore will struggle against any team with a top 10 defense this season. VIKINGS 24-20
I WISH I COULD BE MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE RAVENS CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, BUT IT'S THE RAVENS JOB TO SHOW US WE HAVE REASON TO BE OPTIMISTIC. WITH THAT SAID, THIS IS A BADLY WOUNDED VIKINGS TEAM, AND IF THE RAVENS DO THEIR JOB, THEY COULD EDGE MINNESOTA AND COME HOME VICTORIOUS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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