I was not particularly fond of the Seahawks last season. I, like many people, was disgusted by Richard Sherman's boisterous hate-rant immediately following Seattle's win over the 49ers. Suffice it to say that things have changed in my mind this time around. The Patriots now firmly occupy a space in my mind typically devoted to only the most wretched, vile, despicable franchises for a Maryland native: the Steelers, Yankees, and Duke. The Ravens aren't divisional rivals with the Patriots, but they've played the Patriots many times during the Flacco-Harbaugh era including 4 playoff match-ups in Foxborough. The Patriots and Ravens have essentially become the greatest playoff rivals in the NFL in recent years, but that's not the reason I will root enthusiastically against them during the Super Bowl.
The Patriots are similar to the Ravens in more ways than a Baltimorean would prefer to admit: they make the playoffs nearly every year, they have a tremendous home-field advantage fueled by a thunderously enthusiastic fan base, they have multiple Super Bowl wins within the last two decades, their franchise has been mired in controversy on an alarmingly regular basis, and most of all, they're consistently a top level football team. If the Patriots WEREN'T good...then who would care enough to hate them? With that said, hatred for the Patriots isn't simply due to the Patriots' consistently high level of play. It has to do more with the perception that the Patriots gain an unfair advantage through cheating and favoritism from referees. I won't delve into the details of such matters because enough has been theorized and said about such issues and accusations for the last couple of weeks.
One thing has been made abundantly clear during the Patriots' most recent major controversy: a majority of Americans believes the Patriots will win the Super Bowl, but everyone outside of New England's fan base hopes desperately that they'll lose. This will be, without a doubt, the most difficult game of this season to predict with statistical analysis. The difficulty, oddly enough, does not lie in the fact that these are the two best teams in the league pitted against one another. It, instead, stems from the fact that the Seahawks, regardless of what their injury report might say, will be playing with injuries to its top 3 defensive players. Richard Sherman was reported to have at least minor tears in ligaments in his elbow, Earl Thomas dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship, and Kam Chancellor injured his knee in Friday's practice. I have no doubt that all of these players will play--but at what level? And how does one use statistics to predict a game when there are no statistics from this season of the Seahawks playing with injuries to its three best defenders?
If Chancellor, Sherman, and Thomas had simply been ruled out for the Super Bowl, this would be an extremely EASY prediction, but we're left wondering just how effective they'll be. To tell you the truth, I haven't been particularly impressed with either of the Super Bowl teams during this post-season. Both the Seahawks and Patriots had home field advantage up until this point, and both teams had been seriously tested by teams with major injury-related weaknesses. The Patriots only barely beat a Ravens team that relied on literally an 8th string cornerback as a starter, and the Pats' supposedly mighty tandem of Revis and Browner wasn't enough to stop Joe Flacco from throwing 4 touchdown passes. The Seahawks, meanwhile, struggled to score at home against a Packers defense that had been terrible on the road all season, and the mighty Seahawks defense allowed a quarterback with a torn calf muscle to lead his team into overtime in Seattle. Yes, the Seahawks dominated the Panthers, and the Patriots dominated the Colts, but who in their right mind thought THOSE teams had a chance in Seattle and Foxborough? None of these facts, mind you, shed even a small amount of light on which team will be stronger during this Super Bowl. Ugh.
I acknowledge that any prediction I make today could be made totally invalid by injuries to the Seahawks secondary, but for the sake of analysis, let's just operate under the assumption that Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Kam Chancellor are healthy enough to play at a high level. As I write this sentence, I truly have no idea who is more likely to win this game, so see what the facts have to say.
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
The New England Patriots haven't won a post-season game outside of Foxborough in 7 years. The days of Patriot Super Bowl dominance are now long gone with their final win occurring 10 years ago. I doubted the Seahawks' ability to go on the road and beat a truly dominant offense last season, and that prediction didn't quite go as I had planned. It would be easy to simply equate the Patriots with last year's Broncos team and predict another dominant Seahawks victory, but this Patriots team just isn't the same.
The Patriots teams that won Super Bowls in the last decade all had the benefit of strong defense. Ironically, Tom Brady actually wasn't yet an elite quarterback in those days from a statistical standpoint. This Patriots team has a similar level of balance with solid running ability from LaGarrette Blount, an impressive passing attack without any elite wide receivers, and a defense that finished the regular season ranked 8th in the league in points allowed per game. The Patriots finally have a healthy offensive line after major injury issues during the regular season, and their recent acquisition of LaGarrette Blount has added a power running dimension to their offense. On top of all of that, their quarterback, unlike Peyton Manning, is the winningest playoff quarterback in NFL history.
The Seahawks finished the regular season ranked first in both yards allowed and points allowed per game, and thus, they solidified their spot for the second year in a row as the number one defense in the NFL. They're also the number one rushing team in NFL with an average of 172.6 rushing yards per game. This stems not only from the fact that Marshawn Lynch is one of the league's most dominant running backs, but also from the fact that Russell Wilson finished the regular season with nearly 900 rushing yards, 7.2 yards per carry, and 6 rushing touchdowns in addition to the 20 he amassed through the air. Wilson may not find himself atop the quarterback rankings on any published lists, but his intelligence and athleticism make him easily the most valuable player on his team.
The major weakness in Seattle's game, however, is their passing attack. Sure the Seahawks ultimately beat the Packers in the playoffs, but the Packers showed for roughly 56 minutes that all one has to do to stop the Seahawks' offense is to slow their running game. Marshawn Lynch still finished with 156 rushing yards on the day, but a large amount of those yards came in the 4th quarter when the Packers flubbed away what should have been a guaranteed win. Excluding overtime stats, the Seahawks had WELL under 200 passing yards, and that kind of production is hardly what a team typically needs to outscore the Patriots.
The Patriots, on the other hand, could very well struggle to stop the Seahawks rushing attack. Justin Forsett, for example, rushed for 129 yards against the Patriots defense in New England, and that helped to open things up for the Ravens passing attack. I know Revis still ranks in the top 5 in the league, but his presence wasn't enough to shut down a Ravens passing offense devoid of a legitimate #1 receiver. The Ravens had a better receiving corps and a better passing quarterback than the Seahawks, but they had no major physical mismatches such as a Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, or A.J. Green with which to work.
Now we're left wondering which statistics are truly relevant to this match-up. This is being billed as a home game for the Seahawks as Seattle is much closer to Arizona than New England is to Arizona. The Seahaws won't have nearly the same home field advantage they enjoy in Seattle, but it may be far more than any setting/crowd advantage for the Patriots. How do each of these teams perform on the road? Well all of the Patriots losses occurred on the road this season with the exception of their final regular season game against the Buffalo Bills wherein the Patriots pulled their starters at halftime. The Seahawks suffered 3 of their 4 losses on the road as well, but they finished the season strong with 3 dominant road wins over teams with impressive defenses (the 49ers, Cardinals, and Eagles).
The Patriots struggled at times on road against teams with physical pass defenses. They lost in Miami to a Dolphins team with a talented secondary, they barely beat the Jets in the Meadowlands 17-16, they lost a Packers team with the 10th ranked pass defense, and they struggled to pull away from a Chargers team with the 8th ranked pass defense. None of these teams possesses the type of physical secondary the Seahawks possess. It's also a safe bet that LaGarrette Blount will not have an incredible day on the ground against the 3rd ranked run defense in the NFL....but maybe he will. It's entirely possible that the Seahawks focus so much of their power on stopping Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and Brandon LaFell that things could open up at least somewhat for Blount--but I doubt it.
One has to consider what it was that made the Patriots successful against the Ravens and Colts. Without Jimmy Smith, the Ravens didn't have anyone who could jam receivers within the first 5 yards, and thus, the Ravens defensive coordinator had his corners give the Patriots receivers a substantial cushion at the line. The thinking was that they simply wanted to keep the Patriots receivers in front of them and prevent against anyone breaking free down field--a fat lot of good THAT did. Rashaan Melvin was abused for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Patriots walked away winners. The Patriots totally abandoned their running game after only managing to gain 14 yards on the ground against the Ravens. Blount just isn't THAT impressive against elite run defenses. Against the Colts, the Patriots faced a horrible road defense. Forget the fact that the Colts beat the Broncos, because that Denver team was doomed by a crippled Peyton Manning. The Colts barely managed to beat the BROWNS on the road in the final leg of the season, and that says a lot about what they weren't able to do defensively.
Patriots fans are justifiably high on their team going into today's game. Their favorite team has appeared to be the AFC's most dominant franchise basically all year long. One has but to look at how the Patriots played against the Jets, however, to see that they're not invincible against a poor man's version of the Seahawks...a VERY poor man's version. The Jets were awful this season. They won almost nothing. They did, however, manage to lose to the Patriots twice by only a collective 3 points. How did the Jets do such a thing? Well The Jets were simply physical up front against the Patriots and ran the football down New England's throat. I wondered earlier today if the Seahawks had a potent enough passing game to contend with the Patriots, but the Patriots struggled to stop a Jets team that has worse receivers and a MUCH worse quarterback than the Seahawks. The Jets, like the Seahawks, had an elite run defense this season, but the Seahawks have a much better secondary.
In their first game of the playoffs, the Patriots outsmarted the Ravens with clever plays such as Julian Edelman's touchdown pass, and they utilized eligibility technicalities to keep the Ravens from being able to adjust defensively in the second half of the game. Those trick plays likely won't be as effective against the Seahawks as the league has stated that referees will be using hand signals to make clear to the Seahawks which Patriots players are eligible and ineligible for receiving passes today. The Ravens also depended largely on their pass rush to stop teams from having success through the air this season, while the Seahawks are good enough in pass coverage that neutralizing the pass rush doesn't mean shutting down their pass defense.
The more I look at the Patriots wins and losses this season, the more I think that this is a Seahawks team tailor-made to beat them. I began writing this post believing that the Patriot were the more balanced team, and thus, that they'd likely win. I had hoped I could hedge my bets and predict a Patriots win. If the Patriots lost, then I could be happy they lost, and if they won, I could proudly boast a 9-2 playoff record for this season. I could still make such a prediction, but I couldn't do so in good conscience. If the Patriots ultimately win and prove me wrong, then more power to them. They've had to deal with the distraction of Deflategate, and they will have defeated a team with easily the best defense and rushing offense in the league. The problem is that the Patriots don't have the ability to stop a team such as the Seahawks from running the football, and their secondary isn't good enough to shut down a team with a quarterback mobile enough to extend plays with his legs. Now that I think about it, that was a big reason the Patriots struggled on the road against the Packers. Russell Wilson isn't the passer that Aaron Rodgers is, but he's even more mobile and quite intelligent. Tom Brady will have trouble establishing a rhythm in the short passing game because of the physicality of the Seahawks defensive backs, and there's a good chance Brady throws 2 or more interceptions today.
That entire last paragraph could be made totally null and void by lingering injuries to the Seahawks secondary, but I have to assume that the Seahawks players will be ready to go after extended rest. I even just read that Kam Chancellor's knee injury from Friday was insignificant enough that he didn't even appear to favor the knee and looked "great" in Saturday's practice. If the Patriots prove me wrong, I'll tip my cap to them. They've become the Ravens playoff arch nemesis, and I hate them--but I wouldn't hate them if they weren't a consistently great team.
PREDICTION:
The Seahawks will out-muscle the Patriots in nearly every facet of this game. Rob Gronkowski will have a great day with nearly 100 receiving yards and a touchdown, but the rest of the Patriots receiving corps will be stifled by dominant, physical defensive backs, and the Patriots offense will sputter. The Seahawks, meanwhile, will have a big day on the ground, but will still struggle to score until the second half of the game. This will be about as exciting as the Ravens 49ers Super Bowl from two seasons ago. SEAHAWKS 23-20
The Seahawks remind me a lot of the Ravens of yesteryear. They boast a physical, aggressive defense, a hard-nosed running game, and a ferociously loud fan base. I wasn't rooting for them last year, but I certainly will be today.
RAVENS NEWS
It's unclear what will happen with Torrey's Smiths upcoming contract situation. I would love to see him return to Baltimore even if he didn't prove as dominant as one of the league's top 5 receivers. Some have even concluded that we've seen all we'll see from Torrey, and he can't develop any further from this point on. If being the Ravens' all time receiving touchdown leader is "all we'll see" from Torrey, then I'm ok with that. A 4 year contract will keep T. Smitty a Raven though his prime and ensure Joe Flacco has speed on the outside during HIS prime years as a quarterback. Torrey has been vocal about wanting to return to Baltimore, and he also has has stated that he wants to get a deal done before free agency. This may be a good indication that Torrey understands his value would be incredibly high on the free agent market after posting the lowest regular season receiving yardage total of his career in 2014. He did have a career best 11 regular season touchdowns, but it would be tough to argue his value is significantly higher than an aging Steve Smith who broke 1000 receiving yards yet again this season. Steve Smith, for the record, will only be paid in the neighborhood of 4 million dollars next season, and if Torrey's agent demands more than 7 million, the Ravens might simply tell him to go test the market and come back.
I fully expect Justin Forsett to be back with the Ravens, Haloti Ngata to negotiate a contract extension in order to lower his cap number, and Lardarius Webb to renegotiate as well. I've seen reports that Brandon Marshall is scheduled to be cut by the Bears before March 13th because his contract becomes guaranteed on that date if they do nothing. Such an acquisition wouldn't necessarily make Torrey Smith obselete as Marshall lacks Smith's pure down-field speed. It could, however, mean the Ravens would feel more free to look to the draft for speed and let Torrey Smith walk. Regardless of the Torrey Smith situation, the Ravens should be easily the best team in the AFC North next season and once again one of the top 2-3 teams in the the AFC. The return of Jimmy Smith will mean a great boost for a secondary that struggled in his absence. I have no doubt the Ravens will look to the draft to stockpile talented young cornerbacks in case Webb and Jimmy Smith face more injury issues next season. Will Hill should be offered a contract as he returned to form in the second half of the season and is right in his prime at 25 years old. The Ravens defense will only improve, but the offense is the real key to next season.
Baltimore's offensive line looks like arguably the best in the NFL heading into 2015. Not only will they have a talented, ferocious group of starters, but they have solid, tested, capable backups that can step in and keep Flacco upright and open holes up for running backs. When Joe Flacco enjoys good protection, he's a dangerous quarterback. This will be the same offense and the same playbook as last season, but with Marc Trestmas calling plays, this very well could be the year that Flacco piles up pro-bowl caliber stats.
The Ravens were banged up in key positions down the stretch this season, and they still managed to come within one botched drive of advancing to an easily winnable AFC championship game. Baltimore was too defensively banged up to go to or win a Super Bowl this season, but that almost certainly won't be the case in 2015. The core of this team will stay in tact for another year, and they're primed and ready to make a run. This season wasn't a disappointment, it was a preview.
JUST FOR TODAY, GO SEAHAWKS
BUT AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
