Friday, March 8, 2013

2013 RAVENS DRAFT WISHLIST (PART 3)

     I have no doubt that the Ravens wouldn't hesitate to pick up a talented safety in this year's draft if one becomes available in the first round.  That safety, however, would have to be an extremely high value and the best player available according to the Ravens draft board.  Safety is a position of concern as there's a chance Ed Reed signs a contract with another team.  I think I speak for all Ravens fans when I say that I hope and pray that doesn't happen, but it's a real possibility and it would leave a leadership vacuum in the the Ravens secondary.  Ed isn't as fast as he was even a few years ago, and he has dealt with serious injuries that have lessened his ability to wrap up and tackle opponents.  Despite his injuries, Reed managed to play in every game for the past two seasons, and he finished the 2012 season with the most tackles he has recorded since the 2006 season.  Ed also had at least one interception in the playoffs in each of the last two seasons including a critical interception in the Super Bowl.  Reed is now tied with Ronnie Lott for most career post-season interceptions in NFL history with 9. 
     More important that Reed's physical performance on the field is his ability to educate and elevate the players around him.  Ed is cut from the same cloth as Ray Lewis in that regard, and Lardarius Webb will be the first one to tell you that Ed is the biggest reason for his own current ball hawking ability.  Also more important than Reed's current physical ability is the respect he is given by opposing teams and quarterbacks based on years of unparalleled performance.  As long as Ed is healthy, he should be able to garner this respect for at least the next couple of seasons.
     With all of that said, the Ravens already have some talented young safeties behind Ed Reed.  Baltimore picked the fastest free safety in the draft last year in Christian Thompson.  They also acquired a safety named Omar Brown who captivated fans in the pre-season with many takeaways.  Brown plays safety rather instinctively, and as I mentioned in yesterday's post, Ed Reed remarked last season that Omar reminds him of himself at that age.  These rising young players and the hope that Ed Reed re-signs with the Baltimore are good reasons why free safety is not as much of a dire need as nose tackle or middle linebacker, but there may be a safety or two that the Ravens value too highly to pass up drafting early.  Let's take a look at who might be available:


FREE SAFETIES


1. ERIC REID- It's fitting that the best free safety in this draft has the same initials with basically the same last name as the greatest free safety of our generation.  This LSU product has the physical attributes and athleticism to ultimately replace Ed Reed a few years down the line or possibly to take Ed's spot this season if he departs for another team.  Reid is 6'1" with incredibly long arms for his frame (33 and 5/8").  Reid ran an official combine forty yard dash time of 4.53 which is just slightly slower than Christian Thompson's 4.50 forty time from a year ago.  Reid has great hands and phenomenal tackling intensity.  He would be a fantastic, big-bodied coverage asset as NFL teams ultilize pass-catching tight ends more and more in the coming years.  His only major downfall is his occassional tendency to take bad angles and miss as a result of being overly aggressive when attempting to tackle in the open field.  That problem, however, would likely be fixed rapidly with one year learning under Ed Reed.  Reid is a great ball hawk and has good downfield vision that allows him to return interceptions for a good amount of yardage.  It may be a long shot for this athlete to fall to the Ravens at the 32nd draft spot, but if he happens to be available, this pick is a no-brainer.  Click this link to take a look at this highlights: ERIC REID'S CAREER HIGHLIGHTS

2. JONATHAN CYPRIEN- Ok, so you likely have never heard of this free safety.  He played for Florida International and wasn't a huge standout at the combine as he only participated in the vertical jump.  I assume he's waiting for his pro day in order to show what he can do in all of the other major physical tests.  Cyprien is exactly 6 feet tall and fast.  His range as a free safety is great and he covers a lot of ground in the secondary.  Cyprien has the vision, speed, and hands to be a great NFL ballhawk, and he is a sure tackler that excels at breaking up passes.  This is exactly the style of safety that the Ravens need, and he's not such a big name as Eric Reid so he could very well be available to the Ravens in the 2nd or 3rd round of the draft.  Cyprien could be another hidden gem from a smaller college program in the same fashion as Lardarius Webb.  Oh...and did I mention Cyprien is an incredibly hard hitter?  Take a look at Cyprien's highlights, you won't be disappointed: JONATHAN CYPRIEN'S CAREER HIGHLIGHTS

3. MATT ELAM- After watching his highlight tape, I was surprised when I remembered that this athlete is listed as a free safety.  Elam is an explosive tackler who excels when playing up at or near the line of scrimmage.  His style may translate better to strong safety in the NFL, but he has the speed and acceleration to close in on defenders in the open field with ease.  Elam could provide versitility at the safety position for the Ravens in the fashion of Haruki Nakamura or Tom Zbikowski with his ability to play at either safety position.  He's only 5'10" and might struggle to cover taller receivers, but he ran almost an identical official combine forty yard dash time as Eric Reid with a 4.54.  I doubt the Ravens would pick him in the first round, but he'd be a great value if they use compensatory picks to trade up in the second round.  His highlights tape is, however, incredibly exciting to watch and he would definitely provide a great boost to the Ravens run defense.  Click on this link to view his highlights: MATT ELAM'S CAREER HIGHLIGHTS

     Stay tuned next week for the offensive portion of my 2013 Ravens draft wishlist.  The Ravens offense dominated the post season and most of the Ravens' offensive pieces are under contract for next year, but there are at least a few positions in question with a number of key players becoming restricted and unrestricted free agents such as Dennis Pitta, Ed Dickson, and Bryant McKinnie.  The Ravens will always look to bolster their strength and depth at offensive line, and with the departure of Matt Birk, the Ravens may bring in another center to compete with Gino Gradkowski.  The Ravens wide receiver situation appears fairly stable, and we may see them utilize Tommy Streeter and Deonte Thompson this season, but the Ravens won't pass up the opportunity to draft high value receivers to further surround Joe Flacco with weapons as he enters his prime.  This promises to be quite an exciting draft to say the least!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

Thursday, March 7, 2013

2013 RAVENS DRAFT WISHLIST (PART 2)

     Despite the departure of Ray Lewis and the enormous void that the ultimate Ravens leader leaves in Baltimore's roster, there may actually may be more pressing defensive deficiency that the Ravens will have to address in the draft.  The Ravens defensive line had its share of issues in the 2012-2013 season.  The first of which was that the Ravens started aging nose tackle Ma'ake Kemoeatu who performed at average levels at his very best.  Behind Ma'ake there was Terrance Cody who performed even worse as he got knocked around and blown up by opposing offensive lineman.  The other major issue was that Haloti Ngata played most of the season and post-season with a sprained knee and shoulder injury.  When he's healthy, Haloti Ngata is arguably the best defensive tackle in the NFL.  Ngata, however, has not had a season where he has stayed relatively healthy in at least two years, and as a result, the Ravens run defense struggled for much of last year. 
     I must give Haloti Ngata credit for playing through nagging injuries in so many games last season.  In fact, all four of the Ravens' biggest defensive stars played with rather serious injuries throughout the playoffs and even in the Super Bowl.  Ed Reed never missed a game in the last two seasons despite a torn labrum and nerve impingement in his neck, Ray Lewis played desite a less than totally healed right arm, Haloti Ngata played through a sprained MCL, and Terrell Suggs rushed back to play on an only partially rehabbed achilles tendon only to suffer and play through a fairly serious biceps tear.  This is a team of veteran warriors, and it made me proud to see that not even injuries would keep them from winning a Super Bowl ring together.
    I'm still basking in the glory of my team's Super Bowl victory, but the 2012 season is over and the 2013 off-season is underway.  Ray Lewis is gone, Ed Reed's situation is uncertain, and we're still left with serious issues on the defensive line.  Fortunately for Baltimore, the 2013 NFL draft appears as though it will be overflowing with top notch interior defensive behemoths.  Some experts project that 5-7 interior defensive linemen will be taken in the first round of the draft.  If the Ravens can't find first round value in any available linebackers when it's their time to pick then there's a strong possibility they'll go with a big-bodied, middle-clogging compliment to Haloti Ngata in order to bolster an ailing interior run defense.  Let's take a look at some of the best possible options for them:

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

1. JOHNATHAN HANKINS- In this list I'm not interested in simply naming the top three defensive tackles in the draft as some of those players will be totally out of reach for the Ravens and others won't fit what the Ravens are looking for despite being extremely talented and athletic.  The Ravens need a big, strong, menacing defensive tackle that can occupy blockers to give big support in the running game to a linebacker corps currently mired in uncertainty with the aformentioned departure of its longetime unquestioned leader.  Johnathan Hankins is just such a defensive tackle.  He doesn't have the speed to get by defenders and become a threatening pass-rusher, but he has the size and strength to collapse pockets in order to put pressure on quarterbacks.  He ran an impressive 5.31 forty yard dash at the NFL combine considering his 335 pound body weight.  Hankins will have to make sure to keep up his conditioning to be effective in the NFL, and that will definitely be a concern to a Ravens team that had dealt with the conditioning issues of Terrance Cody in the past few seasons.  He has the size (6'3"), strength, and youthful intensity to be an upgrade over Ma'ake Kemoeatu at nose tackle or simply provide depth at defensive tackle behind Haloti Ngata.  There's a good chance that Hankins is gone by the time the Ravens make their first pick, but he's not totally out of their reach if they trade up a number of spaces in the first round...but don't count on that.

2. JOHN JENKINS- There is a much higher likelihood that the Ravens are able to draft John Jenkins at the end of the first round, and that would certainly not be a bad thing.  Jenkins is an inch taller than Hankins at 6'4" and also somewhat heavier at 346 pounds.  Jenkins possesses decent upper body strength and hand skills to shed blockers.  He'd fit right in at nose tackle in a 3-4 defense such as that of the Ravens, but he doesn't have the lower body explosion and agility that Hankins possesses.  Jenkins will be good in run support but won't likley be a great 3-down player.    His size and length will likely still make him a good value at the end of the first round though, and the Ravens could certainly use a big young nose tackle that isn't named Terrance Cody to improve the interior run defense.

3. JESSE WILLIAMS- I was initially eager to see Jesse Williams' combine performance because he had claimed to have bench pressed 600 pounds in training at college.  That claim was clearly wildly exaggerated as Williams only managed 30 reps with 225 at the NFL combine.  A quick note from an experienced bencher and strength coach: a 600 pound bench press is almost totally out of the realm of possibility for college football player because the amount of bench-specific training required to achieve such a feat at such a young age would mean sacrificing a lot of other important training for football.  Typically a bencher who can hit 225 for 30 reps is capable of a bench press in the low 400s.  A bench presser in the 500 pound range can usually hit in the 40-45 rep range, and a bencher who can hit roughly 50 reps on the bench press is usually good a max in the 535-550 range and that's extremely rare in the world of college football.  Coaches and players tend to exaggerate bench press maxes with either false claims or judicious use of spotter assistance *cough cough Larry Allen*. 
     Now back to the player in question.  Jesse Williams is still a big strong defensive lineman with a great motor.  He isn't an exceptional athlete from the mold of Haloti Ngata (but who is?) as his lacks the agility and lateral movement ability to to be a great pass rusher.  What he lacks in athleticism, however, he makes up in size, brute force, and hustle.  He'll have less issues with conditioning than Jonathan Hankins, but also less size at 6'3" 323.  Some major draft analysts don't have Williams going in the first round.  If doesn't get picked in the first round than the Ravens may be wise to trade back and take him early in the 2nd round and then pick speedy young middle linebacker later in the same round. 

     Stay tuned tomorrow for Part 3 of my 2013 Ravens Draft Wishlist wherein I'll examine available safeties to either provide depth behind or fill Ed Reed's vacant spot if he end's up departing for another team.  I would hope that a talented young safety would get a chance to first learn from Ed Reed for the next year or two before attempting to fill his seemingly impossibly-to-fill shoes.  This need is not nearly as dire at the moment, however, because the Ravens already picked up a couple of talented young safeties in the last couple of seasons with Christian Thompson and Omar Brown.  I hope we see Omar Brown on the field this season as he seems to just always be around the football to the extent that Ed Reed said Brown reminds him of himself.  The Ravens would be incredibly foolish to let Ed Reed go in the wake of Ray Lewis' departure, and hopefully they're able to agree on a mutually beneficial contract with the future hall of famer.  The Ravens need leadership right now, and Ed is just the man to provide it to the defense.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

2013 RAVENS DRAFT WISHLIST (PART 1)

     Mock drafts should not be taken too seriously.  The nature of the NFL draft is such that one team's decision can affect the decisions of many teams with later picks.  Mock drafts also typically operate under the assumption that teams pick in a set order.  This, of course, is nonsense as many teams trade up or down in the draft order depending on the availability of players they covet.  It is for these reasons that I don't waste time creating mock drafts.  I leave that to Todd McShay and Mel Kiper because they seem to enjoy doing so.  I, instead, prefer to take the three major positions of need for the Ravens and rank the top three players at each position.  If, for example, the Ravens select a middle linebacker in the first round of the draft, then we can assume they'll use their second pick on a player from a different position such as defensive tackle or free safety.  The Ravens draft philosophy, however, is to pick the best player available, and sometimes that means selecting by talent and not necessarily totally according to their perceived most pressing need.
     The Ravens offense should be set for the next couple of years, but the defense needs major attention to make sure that the Ravens remain a complete team and don't become the Green Bay Packers or the New Orleans Saints with a high powered offense led by a high paid quarterback--with a defense that can't stop anyone.  That's the beauty of the draft though; you get the opportunity to pick up relatively inexpensive talent that you won't have to seriously invest in for 3-4 years.  The Ravens are arguably the best team in the league when it comes to drafting and evaluating defensive talent.  Sure, Sergio Kindle and Terrance Cody didn't work out, but Lardarius Webb, Paul Kruger, Courtney Upshaw, Pernell McPhee, and Arthur Jones have all turned out to be total gems.  And let's not forget the amazing defensive draft picks from years past with Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, and Haloti Ngata. 
     There is one more factor that could have a large impact on how the Ravens draft: the free agent situation.  The Ravens have some important decisions to make regarding current defensive free agents including Dannell Ellerbe, Paul Kruger, Ed Reed, and Cary Williams.  I think it's safe to say that Paul Kruger and Cary Williams will not be Ravens next season, but whether or not the Ravens can afford to keep Ellerbe and Reed may affect heavily how they draft in April.  If the Ravens lose Reed or Ellerbe then their may be far more urgency to possibly trade up in the draft to select a player that could step right in and play immediately at linebacker or free safety.  Of course the Ravens won't only be selecting defensive players in the draft as they may find themselves in position to draft a talented natural left tackle, but we'll address that in the next week's offensive edition of the Draft Wishlist.  Ok, now let's take a look at some possible draft pick!

MIDDLE LINEBACKERS

1. ALEC OGLETREE- This Alabama product and national champion very well may be picked long before the Ravens have a chance to snag him.  He's demonstratably faster than Manti Te'o and Kevin Minter with an official combine 40 yard dash time of 4.70 seconds.  That happens to be an almost identical 40 time as the Ravens' current fastest linebacker, Dannell Ellerbe.  Ogletree has the speed to cover sideline to sideline and drop back into coverage.  One has only to see Ogletree's highlights to understand what a ferocious tackler a team will be getting, but questions of his character arose after the young athlete was arrested for driving under the influence.  That mistake is the only thing that could possibly drop Ogletree's stock enough to fall to the Ravens.  The best chance that Ozzie Newsome has in acquiring a linebacker of this talent level is by trading up, and the amount it may take to trade up may simply not be worth it.  Take a look at this monster in action:
ALEC OGLETREE'S HIGHLIGHTS

2. ARTHUR BROWN- This athlete didn't make much of a splash at the combine as it appears that he only performed the broad jump for some reason.  That may play in favor of the Ravens, however, as Ihave not yet seen Arthur Brown on any first round mock drafts yet.  Brown is the brother of Philadelphia Eagle Bryce Brown, and it appears as though athleticism runs in the family.  Regardless of what 40 time Brown runs at his pro day, his game speed is absolutely vicious.  He possesses the intensity and tackling ability to bolster the Ravens run defense, and he has the vision, ball hawking ability, and agility to be great in pass defense as well.  I have him ranked as #2 on this list, but I'll be rooting for the Ravens to snag this guy before someone else realizes just how good he truly is.  Take a look at his highlights: ARTHUR BROWN'S HIGHLIGHTS

3. MANTI TE'O- There are a fair number of expects that have Kevin Minter being picked before this controversial former Heisman candidate.  After watching the film of both players, however, I still have to give an edge to Te'o.  Sure, Te'o disappointed many with a 4.8 forty yard dash at the combine, but Kevin Minter ran almost an identically disappointing time.  I don't think Te'o is an explosively speedy linebacker, but what he lacks in blazing speed, I think he makes up for in anticipatory instinct and tackling ability.  If there's one thing the Ravens lacked this year it was consistent tacklers.  It made me cringe to watch the Chiefs, Cowboys, Redskins, Broncos run right through the middle of the Ravens defense during the 2012 regular season.  Te'o certainly embarrassed himself in the national spotlight, but that doesn't change what he's capable of doing on the field.  He also proved to be a decent ball hawk with 6 interceptions on the year and the Ravens can never have too many ball hawks.  Take a look at his highlights: MANTI TE'O'S HIGHLIGHTS

     I will be posting the second segment of this wishlist tomorrow.  We'll examine the best interior defensive linemen that could possibly go in the first round and potentially replace Maake Kemoeatu to further solidify the middle of the Ravens defense.  Until then, make sure to be prepared for "Snowquester 2013" as one of my friends so ridiculously put it. 
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

Monday, March 4, 2013

FLACCO'S CONTRACT: IS HE REALLY WORTH THE MONEY?



FLACCO'S CONTRACT: JUSTIFYING THE MONEY
    
     Joe Flacco signed a contract worth a reported $120.6 million today with $52 million in guaranteed money.  I listened to many fans on the radio last week that disagreed with the idea that Joe should be the highest player in the entire NFL as many of them do not feel he's the best quarterback in the league.  I,  however, believe he deserves exactly what he got, and I'm happy to explain why.
     Joe Flacco is 28 years old and is just entering what many would consider the prime of his career as a quarterback.  Joe is still in his late 20s and his body has not yet begun to break down the way that the body of a quarterback in his mid to late 30s tends to do (Peyton Manning and Brett Favre are prime examples).  So Joe is young enough that his body is in great shape, but he has 5 years of experience at a position where experience is paramount to the develoment and understanding of the complexities of NFL offenses and defenses. 
     More important than the number of years Joe has been in the league is the number of games he has played during that time period and the number of post-season games he has won.  Joe Flacco is the only NFL quarterback to go to the playoffs in each of the last 5 seasons, and his post-season resume during that time period has been nothing short of spectacular.  Flacco's 9-4 record with 3 AFC Championship appearances and a Super Bowl win make him simply the hottest playoff quarterback in the NFL during the last 5 years.
     Despite his impressive record from a wins and losses standpoint, many fans tend to look down upon Flacco because of his less than elite regular season statistics.  Joe Flacco has never had a single regular season with 4000+ passing yards or more than 25 passing touchdowns.  Flacco has been criticized as inconsistent and has sometimes had games where he looked totally lost. I, however, would urge fans to consider for a moment the career of Drew Brees. 
     Drew Brees is generally regarded as an elite quarterback.  Brees typically carries his team on his shoulders and passes for 4500+ yards just about every year...but it wasn't always that way.  Drew Brees had the--uhh--pleasure (sarcasm intended) of having Cam Cameron as his offensive coordinator for the first 5 seasons of his career in the NFL.  Joe Flacco also had Cam Cameron as his offensive coordinator for just about the first 5 of his NFL career, and it would shock many people to learn that Flacco's statistics have been far better than those of Brees during their respective times working with Cameron.
     During Drew Brees' first five season in the NFL, the now-elite quarterback never once threw for at least 3600 passing yards.  Brees, in fact, averaged just over 3,400 passing yards per season during his compete seasons in his first 5 years (it should be noted that Brees' rookie season and 3rd season were both incomplete and he played a combined 12 games during those two years).   The most passing yards Brees had in a single season with Cam Cameron's play calling was a mere 3,576 yards in his 5th season.  The very next season, however, Brees escaped the confines of Cam Cameron's pathetically simplistic passing schemes and began his time with the New Orleans Saints.  That season Brees threw for a whopping 4,418 yards!  Brees also had less interceptions and more touchdowns than in his last season with the Chargers. 
     Joe Flacco, by contrast, had more than 3,600 passing yards in all but one of his first five seasons, and the only season in which he had less than 3,600 passing yards was his rookie season wherein the Ravens employed a "3-headed monster" running back trio as the centerpiece of their offense.  Fortunately for Joe, Cam Cameron was fired by the Ravens just in time for the young quarterback to get used to a new and better offensive coordinator and make a historic playoff run capped off with a Super Bowl victory one month ago.
     In years past, people could point to the Ravens defense as a big reason for the Ravens success even when Joe Flacco failed to perform at a high level.  That was not the case in the 2012-2013 season as the Ravens defense landed in the bottom half of the league during the regular season due to a rash of injuries to the starting lineup. 
     Joe had his ups and downs during the regular season, but he was good enough to lead the Ravens offense to its highest scoring regular season since the team's inception.  Joe showed a totally different level of performance and consistency under the guidance and play-calling of Jim Caldwell.  He threw for 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the post-season, and outplayed both of the quarterbacks that are considered by many to be the best of their generation...and he did so on the road.  Joe is much younger than Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady, and he's a far better quarterback in high pressure come-from-behind wins than Aaron Rodgers.  Flacco is still cool under pressure and plays with unflinching resolve even in hostile road playoff games.  He has never missed a regular season game due to injury despite having taken his share of big hits due to years of inconsistent protection from his offensive line.  Joe showed what he could do once free of the shackles of Cam Cameron's offensive system, and fans should expect the trend to continue into the next regular season.  Yes, there may be quarterbacks that will perform better than Joe Flacco in the 2013 regular season, but there is no other quarterback in the league right now with the combination of experience, physical abilities, post-season prowess, durability, and comparative youth of Joe Flacco, and that's exactly why he deserves to be the highest paid player in the NFL today. 

     I get that some people may still not be sold on Joe regardless of everything I've discussed here, but I'm confident that he'll finally put up elite regular season statistics next season in Jim Caldwell's offense.  Many people thought they had seen the best of Joe Flacco as the regular season was coming to a close in 2012, but now I think we can all agree that the best is likely yet to come.  Stay tuned tomorrow for my first 2013 NFL Draft wishlist.  We'll look at the Ravens' positions of need that will hopefully be addressed in the draft and also discuss free agent priorities and possible roster cuts.  It's a new era in Baltimore, Ravens fans!

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!