RAVENS DRAFT ANALYSIS PT.1

 LET'S FIRST SET THE RECORD STRAIGHT ABOUT OZZIE


       If you listened to 105.7 The Fan after the first 5 rounds of the draft this weekend, you most likely heard an endless line of armchair GM's talking about what a disappointment the 2012 draft was for the Baltimore Ravens.  I heard one caller whining about the fact that the Ravens had not drafted a wide receiver (they did 15 minutes later) and he complained that they should have traded up to get Donta Hightower and then taken Peter Konz in the second round.  I heard one caller complaining that Ozzie was overrated as a general manager.  This caller stated that Ozzie is good at picking pro-bowlers, but that he doesn't draft the right players at the right positions that would really push the Ravens over the AFC Championship hump and into the Superbowl.  This particular caller wondered what it was that the Patriots, Steelers, and Giants were doing that the Ravens weren't.
     While I do wish that the Ravens would have gone to and won the Superbowl in 2011, I also am not so shortsighted as to think that the Ravens drafting is what has held them back. On the contrary, the players that the Ravens drafted over the years were the reason that the Ravens did as well as they did in the AFC Championship.  Lardarius Webb, Jimmy Smith, and Ed Reed played out of their minds and didn't allow the 2011 PATRIOTS TO SCORE A SINGLE PASSING TD, Ray Lewis looked good in pass coverage for a change and prevented a Wes Welker touchdown, Torrey Smith lit up the field with his speed, and Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady! 
     The players who ultimately let the team down were free agents, not draft picks.  Lee Evans couldn't hold on to a perfect touchdown pass, and even more embarrassing, Billy Cundiff immortalized his last name into a verb by Cundiffing (heh heh) what would have been a game tying field goal to send the Ravens and Pats into overtime. Ozzie isn't perfect, but the last thing anyone can accuse him of is drafting poorly.  He sometimes picks up disappointing free agent wide receivers (Stallworth, Houshmadzadeh, Evans) but he has also picked up some that proved to be quite good (Boldin, Mason).  Bottom line: The Ravens are a great team and a big reason they are great is the draft, so STOP WHINING, BALTIMOREANS!  Ok, got that out of my system.  On to the draft picks!!

DRAFT ANALYSIS

    I can honestly say that I wasn't worried after the Ravens traded out of the first round of the draft.  Hightower had been picked up by the Patriots, but plenty of players originally projected as first round picks still remained on the board, and the Ravens had the 3rd pick in the second round.  I wanted the Ravens to draft Stephen Hill as I stated in previous posts, but I also wanted and expected them to draft Courtney Upshaw.  With that, let's get right into the Ravens' first pick of the 2012 draft:

COURTNEY UPSHAW, OLB-  This Alabama has already been described by pundits as one of the best steals of the draft.  This is entirely accurate as he was top 20 talent that fell to the Ravens in the second round after a fair number of teams made some headscratching decisions with their first round picks (yes Brandon Weeden and David Wilson...YOU ARE HORRIBLE MISTAKES!).  And despite the fact that Donta Hightower could have become Ray Lewis' ultimate successor, Upshaw actually fills a bigger hole in the roster for the upcoming season.  With the departure of Jaret Johnson, the Ravens needed a physical outside linebacker who can stop the run and terrorize QBs.  They got exactly such a replacement in Courtney Upshaw.  Sure, he has a girl's first name, but it'll only be that much funnier when Ben Roethlisberger gets physically dominated by someone with a girl's name for the sake of poetic justice.  If you live under a rock and only just emerged, you may be one of the small number of people who haven't seen Upshaw play.  Do yourself a favor and watch his highlights here: Courtney Upshaw Highlights.

KELECHE OSEMELE, G/T- I must admit that I hadn't paid as much attention to this impressive athlete before he was drafted at the end of the second round.  I anticipated the Ravens going after Kevin Zeitler, but the Bengals snatched him up knowing full well that the Ravens wanted him.  Osemele may prove just as useful as Zeitler since he has the longest arms of any offensive lineman in the draft, bench pressed the same number of reps as Zeitler (32), ran the 40 yard dash a hair faster than Zeitler, as well as a slightly better broad jump.  On top of all of that, the Ravens got Osemele close to the end of the second round instead of end of the first round as the Bengals did with Zeitler.  Osemele will most likely compete with Jah Reid for the start left guard spot, and will provide the versatility to step in if Marshall yanda or Michael Oher gets injured.  This guy is a big, physical replacement for Ben Grubbs, and with his size, strength, quickness, and length, he'll be a big help in the Ravens' rushing attack.

BERNARD PIERCE, RB- I was surprised to see the Ravens take a running back in the 3rd round, and I initially thought that they should have gone after a wide receiver.  I then considered that the Ravens lost Ray Rice's backup when Ricky Williams retired not long ago, and I can understand their hesitation to give a former seventh round pick (Anthony Allen) the back up spot without some competition from a more talented back.  Pierce didn't have the best track speed of the combine (4.50 forty yard dash), but he displays impressive quickness with good speed burst and enough power to break through tackles.  Give him an off-season in the weight room with Ray and the boys and we've got our new backup.  Take a look at his highlights: Bernard Pierce Highlights

GINO GRADKOWSKI, C/G- I heard reports that Gradkowski was high on the draft boards of the Patriots and Steelers as well as the Ravens.  So much attention was paid to Konz that few seemed to consider the possibility that the Ravens would choose a different center later in the draft.  I like this pick a lot.  The Ravens just resigned Matt Birk's decaying corpse for another short contract, so it would be stupid to use a first round draft pick on a player that wouldn't have to immediately step in and play.  And yes I know that Konz may have been able to play guard as well, but he had injury concerns and that's not something I like to hear about a potential Ravens first round pick.  Gradkowski ran a 5.25 forty yard dash and displayed better upper body strength than Konz with 29 reps on the bench.  He'll need to add some muscle, but as he won't be an immediate starter, he has some time to develop behind Birk. 

THIS DRAFT ANALYSIS WILL BE CONTINUED TOMORROW
AS ALWAYS, GO RAVENS!!

REACTION TO THE FIRST ROUND

     The first round of the 2012 draft went exactly as predicted early in the round.  Andrew Luck went to the Colts, RG3 went to the Redskins, and Trent Richardson went to the Browns.  After that, however, the draft was chock full-o-surprises.  Exactly half of the 32 draft picks were traded in some fashion or another over the course of the night, and Roger Goodell dapped up Melvin Ingram with a rather elaborate handshake that suggested that someone in the NFL doesn't ACTUALLY HATE HIM! 
     For many Ravens fans, however, the first round of the draft may have been frustrating.  The Patriots, in a rather uncharacteristic move for their organization, traded up to snag Donta Hightower before the Ravens would have almost certainly picked him in hopes of grooming Ray Lewis' ultimate successor.  The Ravens then traded away the 29th pick of the first round for the 3rd pick of the second round and an additional 4th round pick.  I understand the feeling of waiting over two hours to see who your team will acquire only to realize that you won't know until the following evening.  The initial feeling isn't fun.
     I, however, wasn't hoping the Ravens would pick Donta Hightower.  He would have been a great pick-up and I'm sure he'll be trouble for the Ravens when they face the Patriots in week three this season.  Nevertheless, if you followed my posts regarding the draft, you know exactly what I feel the priorities of this organization should be right now.  Still on the board are Peter Konz, Cordy Glenn, Courtney Upshaw, Stephen Hill, and Rueben Randle.  I firmly believe that the Ravens should draft Upshaw with their first pick and then trade the additional 4th round pick that they acquired from the Vikings last night and use it to move their second pick higher in order to secure Stephen Hill.
     Consider for a moment how the Ravens fared at the end of the season.  Dropped passes and an inability to bring pressure late in the season and in the playoffs left the Ravens losing to a team that they came about one inch away from beating.  Now picture the Ravens with another high-motor physical pass rusher opposite Suggs bearing down on Tom Brady.  Picture Torrey Smith lined up opposite an even faster deep threat wide receiver whose  height and vertical leaping ability make him incredibly challenging to defend.  In an increasingly pass-driven league, there are few pieces more valuable than talented wide receivers and pass rushers.  Also, when Joe Flacco's cannon of an arm, it would seem fitting to have multiple targets that can get behind secondaries and catch his deep bombs.  The point is that both Stephen Hill and Courtney Upshaw will likely be upgrades over Lee Evans and Jaret Johnson (I know JJ was a great run-stopper but Upshaw can stop the run and terrorize QBs).
    At this point, I'm sure there are plenty of readers who would like to bring up the issue of the Ravens' offensive line.  The Ravens just lost Ben Grubbs in free agency and plan to give a second year natural right tackle the chance to earn the left tackle spot.  I wouldn't be unhappy if the Ravens took Cordy Glenn or Peter Konz with one of their second round picks, but I don't believe that Konz and Glenn would be an upgrade over the player they're replacing, and I'm fairly certain that the Ravens have a decent amount of faith in Jah Reid. Also, I KNOW the Ravens would regret passing on a wide receiver with a combination of height, speed, and athleticism reminiscent of a young Randy Moss.  Yes, I know he's not Randy Moss, but like Moss, Stephen Hill is blindingly fast with great hands and stands 6'4".  This could be the missing piece to push Flacco's production well beyond the 4000 yard mark! 
    Just some food for thought.  Tune in  to ESPN tonight at 8:00 to see who the Ravens pick in the 2nd and 3rd rounds!  As always GO RAVENS!!!

MY RAVENS DRAFT WISHLIST (ROUNDS 1-3)

MY RAVENS DRAFT WISHLIST (ROUNDS 1-3)

      Well, Ravens fans, we've reached the final week before the NFL draft.  If you're anything like me, you've been anxiously counting the days until the Ravens hopefully select the missing pieces to their roster puzzle.  The Ravens brass specifically stated that they are looking to add another quality wide receiver, a center, and pass-rusher during the 2012 off-season.  Since then, the Ravens have seen some solid players leave such as Cory Redding, Haruki Nakamura, Jarret Johnson, Tom Zbikowski, and Ben Grubbs.  Cory Redding and Jarret Johnson will be immediately and effectively replaced by young, talented players behind them on the depth chart in Pernell McPhee and Paul Kruger, but Grubbs, Nakamura, and Zbikowski all left the Ravens with serious depth issues in their respective positions.
       The Ravens set to work and acquired solid journeyman safety Sean Considine to replace one of the two spots vacated by Ruke and Zibby.  The Ravens also looked to kill two birds (not ravens of course) with one stone by signing special teams standout Corey Graham.  Graham had the 3rd most special teams tackles in the NFL during the last 5 years, and he has experience as a defensive back and could potentially add to safety depth.  As for replacing Ben Grubbs, the Ravens head coach John Harbaugh stated that the Ravens are going to give Jah Reid a chance to earn the starting left guard position.  Jah is enormous and more of a natural tackle, but he has the athleticism to play guard and will do so at far less money than the $36 million that the Saints are going to pay Ben Grubbs over the course of his newly signed contract.

PURPLE NIGHTMARE'S DRAFT WISHLIST

     It's impossible to accurately predict who the Ravens will draft with every single pick.  This, as many of you know, is due to the Ravens' draft philosophy of picking the best player available.  The Ravens make a ranking system of usually about 150 draftable players.  When it is their time to pick, they select the player still on the draft board who ranks highest on their list.  This does not mean, however, that the Ravens don't still pick players to address need and depth, but they try to adhere to the best player available strategy.  I cannot pretend to know who the Ravens will draft with their first pick as I do not know who will be available at #29, and I certainly won't know whether the Ravens will trade up to get a player they really covet or trade down to acquire more picks with confidence that the player they want to pick first in the draft will still be available later than pick #29.  I will, instead, give a list of the players I believe the Ravens realistically SHOULD pick in the first 3 rounds assuming that they're available.  Without further ado, here they are:

ROUND 1 (Pick #29)

Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech- Yes, yes I know every draft analyst has the Ravens picking the center from Wisconsin, Peter Konz, to address the Ravens' needs on the O line, but I simply can't get on board with that.  Matt Birk is returning and the Ravens could resign Andre Gurode for cheap if they want depth at center for another season or two.  Stephen Hill's height, blinding speed, hands, as well as his incredible average yards-per-catch (29.3) during college make him impossible to pass up if he's still on the board at pick #29.  Having Hill and Smith lined up wide would give every secondary in the league nightmares.  Who do you double team?  Torrey Smith with the insane second gear breakaway speed?  Or maybe you'd rather double team the speedy young receiver who's so tall with such a great vertical and hands that he can haul the ball with one hand when it's delivered to him 11 feet in the air: Stephen Hill Sick One-handed Catch.  And like Torrey Smith, Stephen Hill can beat you deep and make diving catches down-field:  Stephen Hill- DEEP CATCH!  Hill brings speed, height, athleticism, and reliable hands that would perfectly compliment Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin as well as take advantage of Joe Flacco's cannon of an arm.  If he's on the board at #29, the Ravens simply MUST PICK HIM!

ROUND 2 (Pick #60)

Kevin Zeitler, OG Wisconsin- The 2012 appears to be stacked with talent at offensive guard.  David DeCastro and Cordy Glenn appear to be total locks for the first round, but Kevin Zeitler would be a great value pick if he falls to the Ravens at #60.  That is a big IF, however, as Zeitler could easily go in the top 40-50 picks.  This is, you must remember, a wishlist and not a prediction.  Thus, the Ravens may not see Zeitler on the board, but I sure hope they do!  Zeitler comes from a program at Wisconsin that has produced some notable offensive linemen recently: Gabe Carimi of the 2011 draft and also Peter Konz who is projected by many to be first round pick in 2012.  Zeitler has prototypical guard size at 6'4" and 315 pounds.  He has a great weight room work ethic and strength as he put up 32 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press at the NFL combine.  He has respectable speed for his size with a 5.39 official combine 40 yard dash, but Zeitler isn't quite as fast and athletic as Cordy Glenn or David DeCastro, and that's what will keep him out of the first round.  Combine numbers, as many are always quick to point out, never tell the entire story, and one always has to watch game tape to truly evaluate a player.  Take a look: Kevin Zeitler Highlights.

ROUND 3 (Pick #91)

Mychal Kendricks, LB Cal- Kendricks would be an absolute steal in the 3rd round.  He recorded the fastest 40 yard dash time (4.47) of any linebacker in the 2012 NFL draft , and he possesses the vision, and hands to add to the long list of Ravens ball-hawks.  He also plays with the intensity and strength to bring down running backs, receivers, and quarterbacks with powerful hits--take a look: Mychal Kendricks Highlights- Cal Football.  Clearly, Kendricks is not Donta Hightower.  He's not first round material, but then again, it doesn't take a first round draft pick to become a great Ravens linebacker.  Bart Scott and Jameel McClain both became very good linebackers under the tutelage of Ray Lewis and neither of them was drafted at all!  Kendricks is obviously a talented player and has the potential to become a pro bowler after studying for a few semesters at Ball So Hard University.  C'mon Ozzie, PICK THIS GUY!