The Pittsburgh Steelers have appeared explosive and dominant at times during every season during this decade. With only 3 playoff wins in the last 6 seasons, the Steelers dominance hasn't proved nearly consistent enough to yield the post-season success they enjoyed from 2005-2010, but this season could totally change that trend.
There's no denying the offensive talent level of the Steelers. An improved offensive line has allowed Le'veon Bell, Antonio Brown to put up monster yardage and score quickly and frequently. Even lesser known players such as Eli Rogers have shown their ability to greatly impact games at times as a part of a potent array of weapons for Ben Roethlisberger. The problem isn't a lack of big name playmakers; it's a perplexing drop-off in performance when on the road.
The Steelers didn't find the endzone once against the Chiefs last weekend in their narrow win at Arrowhead Stadium. I predicted that homefield advantage for the Chiefs wouldn't be able to totally turn the tables against a Steelers team that beat them in Pittsburgh 43-14 earlier in the regular season, but I also didn't think the Steelers would only win by an incredibly narrow margin.
In order to accurately predict tonight's Steelers-Patriots matchup, we must examine what exactly makes the Steelers so much worse on the road and determine if the potential return of Ladarius Green could help Pittsburgh overcome their road issues. We must examine exactly how the Patriots have played at home this season, and we can even take a look at the last time these two teams met in the regular season (note: Ben Roethlisberger did not play in that game, so any analysis will strictly pertain to how the Patriots attacked the Steelers defense).
As a matter of record, Mike Tomlin's Steelers have not fared well against Tom Brady. Brady is 5-1 against Tomlin-led Steelers teams, and he has thrown 19 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in those 6 games (I guess old Troy didn't scare Tom like Ed did). Brady's 91.1 quarterback rating is the highest rating against any coach in the league with a minimum of 3 games played. I generally don't like to predict anything based on records from past years and previous teams, but that certainly is telling.
After calculating the road scoring differential for the Steelers this season, I've come to a surprising realization: the Steelers allowed just barely more points (actually the differential is 23.66 scored versus 23.88 allowed) than they scored on the road this season. Yes, they won road games, but not against most of the good or even some of the mid-level teams. The Dolphins, Ravens, and Eagles all put up big point totals on the Steelers defense away from Pittsburgh, and the Steelers really only made up ground in the road scoring differential department against the Colts without Andrew Luck, the Browns, and a strong season opener against a Redskins team that had not yet found its footing. Struggling teams such as the Bills and Bengals only lost narrowly to Big Ben and company.
The question remains as to what exactly is it that makes this Steelers team look so incredibly dominant against the Miami Dolphins at home, and then barely escape Kansas City the next week by two points. The answer isn't so clear or simple. Much of the Steelers' road problems came as the result of injured offensive personnel. Big Ben's injury undoubtedly played a part in the road loss to the Ravens as well as the road loss to the Dolphins, and the lengthy absences of Sammie Coates and Ladarius Green stripped the Steelers of deep threats to take pressure off of Antonio Brown for a significant portion of the regular season. Ladarius Green, as a matter of fact, practiced Friday in limited capacity, but he has been in concussion protocol for nearly a month and recently suffered from illness to boot.
I think it's safe to expect that Ladarius Green will take the field if at all humanly possible today, but he and the Steelers offense will have the tall task of keeping up with a Patriots offense that has shown the ability to function quite well even without Rob Gronkowski this season. Gronkowski's season-ending occurred on a massive hit to the midsection during the home loss to the Seahawks. It took a few weeks of struggling for doctors to fully conclude that Gronk's season needed to end after discovering a significant spinal injury, so we'll example how the Patriots have done at home in their biggest weapon's absence.
Rob Gronkowski existed for the last time in the Patriots narrow win over the Jets on November 27th. After that point, the Patriots went 4-0 at home, including last week's 34-13 defeat of the Texans, and they allowed a mere 12.25 points per game while scoring an average of 32.75 points per game with two 30 or more point performances against two of the league's top defenses. Part of the reason the Patriots haven't skipped a beat is their renewed defensive might which has ranked first in the NFL in points allowed this season. The Patriots have allowed 15.6 points per game in 2016, and that's even after trading their best pass rusher, Jamie Collins. The Patriots have a disciplined defense that swarms to the football and appears extremely familiarized with the tendencies of its opponent. I have little doubt that the Steelers will be able to move the ball on the Patriots, but Patriots defense could prove even more difficult than that of the Chiefs, and no one beats the Patriots without getting into the endzone.
PREDICTION:
I had originally hoped that something about the statistics would lead me to believe I could predict an upset here. For the record, I always hope that the Steelers lose, and I'm absolutely no fan of the Patriots. I, however, hoped that I'd find evidence that I should predict a Steelers win and then I'd have at least some reason to be happy that my prediction was incorrect. In good conscience, I simply can't do that. Nothing about the Steelers' road record this season against quality teams and quality defenses suggests they can outscore the Patriots in Foxborough. The Patriots put up 27 points in Pittsburgh, and while Ben didn't play in that game, it demonstrates that the Steelers defense has no sort of grasp on the Patriots offense. The best Steelers can hope for is a monumental shootout performance where Roethlisberger comes out on top, but that kind of scenario seems unlikely considering the illnesses plaguing the Steelers locker room and even some dirty tricks by Patriots fans to deprive the Steelers players of restful sleep the night before the big game. Tom Brady has never been picked off by a Tomlin-led Steelers team, and he has recently acquired deep threat Michael Floyd to serve at the very least as a speedy, big-bodied decoy to help open things up for Martellus Bennett, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, Dion Lewis, and LaGarrette Blount.
PATRIOTS 31-24
LETS HOPE FOR GREAT PLAYOFF FOOTBALL TODAY IN BOTH GAMES. IT'S NOT NEARLY AS FUN WITH THE RAVENS NOT INVOLVED, BUT TRUE FOOTBALL FANS MUST APPRECIATE THE INCREDIBLE COLLECTION OF TALENT AMASSED AT THE QUARTERBACK POSITION ON THIS CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY. ONLY TWO TEAMS WILL BE LEFT STANDING LATER TONIGHT AND THEN IT'S TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE SUPER BOWL!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!
Sunday, January 22, 2017
Saturday, January 21, 2017
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
What began as a lopsided series of games through the first two rounds has transformed into a playoffs with one of the strongest, most apparently even level of competition in many years. Each team is led by an undeniably elite quarterback, and every single offense is high powered. At least two or three of the remaining starting quarterbacks in this final four will go into the Hall of Fame, and three of them already have Super Bowl rings. The NFC Championship is up first and features two teams that with fantastic aerial attacks. Injuries have recently affected the available personnel for these aerial attacks, so let's take a thorough look at exactly how these injuries and other relevant factors might affect the outcome of this game.
The Packers appear to be far more banged up than the Falcons going into tomorrow afternoon's game. The big question mark for the Falcons earlier this week was Julio Jones after he was absent for practice on Wednesday. Jones has rehabbed a toe injury but insisted that he'll be good to go for the game. The Falcons have zero player other than Jones who were anything less than full participation on Friday's injury report, and that's rather miraculous at this point in the season. The Packers, on the other hand, have a laundry list of players that didn't practice on Friday and for much of this week including Devante Adams, Jordy Nelson, James Starks, Geronimo Allison, Morgan Burnett, and JC Tretter. I doubted Rodgers' ability to overcome the absence of Jordy Nelson last week against the Cowboys, and he promptly shut me up. With Nelson AND Devante Adams banged up, however, Rodgers' list of playmakers grows depressingly thin if you're a cheesehead.
Regardless of injuries to the Packers' weaponry, there are yet those who see Rodgers winning because of his own ability to make spectacular plays outside of the pocket and evade the pass rush. Rodgers will need that ability today as the Falcons possess basically one defensive strength--and that's rushing the passer. The last time these two teams met in Atlanta, the Falcons won an impossibly close 33-32 game. That was, of course, during a time where the Packers had no yet found their current groove, but the Falcons also had an up and down regular season. During that game, the Falcons outgained the Packers by just over 30 yards, but the Packers possessed the ball for just over three more minutes. The Packers rushed for 108 yards with 5.7 yards per carry, but 60 of those rushing yards came from Rodgers himself.
Part of Rodgers ability to scramble has to do with the fact that he's a threat to throw to some impressively athletic, effective targets such as Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams. With Nelson and Adams ailing the list of Rodgers' available receivers becomes so thin that the Falcons will have an easier time containing him as a runner with less to worry about in the secondary. Now Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams may very well attempt to play, but the injury report and also statements from the Packers' head coach, Mike McCarthy, would suggest that both receivers are so banged up that they wouldn't ordinarily be cleared to play under normal circumstances.
The Falcons have the advantage of being able to both run the football and pass all over the field with incredible ease. Matt Ryan is unquestionably better than Dak Prescott (who is no slouch himself) and will likely carve up the Packers' pass defense. It took an incredible catch and a field goal that just barely bent back between the goal posts allow the Packers to beat the Cowboys at the last second last week. As more and more of the Packers became beat up, Green Bay simply stopped scoring in the second half of last week's game, and the Cowboys nearly made a furious comeback despite being down 21-3 at one point. Unlike the Cowboys, the Falcons have the ability to both start and finish fast as they boast the league's most high-octane offense. The Seahawks had an unquestionably better defense than that of the Packers, and even they struggled to contain the likes of Devonta Freeman, Mohammad Sanu, and Julio Jones.
PREDICTION:
The Falcons are more offensively potent and far healthier than the Packers coming into this game. if Aaron Rodgers can pull of an upset without a healthy #1 and #2 wide receiver, he will solidify himself in my mind as the undisputed best quarterback in the league. The problem is that he gets little help from his defense, and Matt Ryan is playing nearly as well as Rodgers this season. The balanced offensive attack of the Falcons as well as Atlanta's pass rush will be enough to tip the scales in favor of Matt Ryan and company to send the man to his first Super Bowl. Let's just hope this one is exciting.
FALCONS 33-28
IT SADDENED EVERYONE IN RAVENS NATION TO LEARN ABOUT ZACHARY ORR'S EARLY RETIREMENT DUE TO INJURY, BUT THE RAVENS WILL FIND A WAY TO FILL HIS POSITION (HOPEFULLY CORREA STEPS WAY UP) AND CONTINUE TO GET BETTER AS A TEAM FOR NEXT SEASON. STAY TUNED OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT MONTH FOR MY 2017 NFL DRAFT WISHLIST!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! (GO GET SOME PLAYMAKERS)
The Packers appear to be far more banged up than the Falcons going into tomorrow afternoon's game. The big question mark for the Falcons earlier this week was Julio Jones after he was absent for practice on Wednesday. Jones has rehabbed a toe injury but insisted that he'll be good to go for the game. The Falcons have zero player other than Jones who were anything less than full participation on Friday's injury report, and that's rather miraculous at this point in the season. The Packers, on the other hand, have a laundry list of players that didn't practice on Friday and for much of this week including Devante Adams, Jordy Nelson, James Starks, Geronimo Allison, Morgan Burnett, and JC Tretter. I doubted Rodgers' ability to overcome the absence of Jordy Nelson last week against the Cowboys, and he promptly shut me up. With Nelson AND Devante Adams banged up, however, Rodgers' list of playmakers grows depressingly thin if you're a cheesehead.
Regardless of injuries to the Packers' weaponry, there are yet those who see Rodgers winning because of his own ability to make spectacular plays outside of the pocket and evade the pass rush. Rodgers will need that ability today as the Falcons possess basically one defensive strength--and that's rushing the passer. The last time these two teams met in Atlanta, the Falcons won an impossibly close 33-32 game. That was, of course, during a time where the Packers had no yet found their current groove, but the Falcons also had an up and down regular season. During that game, the Falcons outgained the Packers by just over 30 yards, but the Packers possessed the ball for just over three more minutes. The Packers rushed for 108 yards with 5.7 yards per carry, but 60 of those rushing yards came from Rodgers himself.
Part of Rodgers ability to scramble has to do with the fact that he's a threat to throw to some impressively athletic, effective targets such as Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams. With Nelson and Adams ailing the list of Rodgers' available receivers becomes so thin that the Falcons will have an easier time containing him as a runner with less to worry about in the secondary. Now Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams may very well attempt to play, but the injury report and also statements from the Packers' head coach, Mike McCarthy, would suggest that both receivers are so banged up that they wouldn't ordinarily be cleared to play under normal circumstances.
The Falcons have the advantage of being able to both run the football and pass all over the field with incredible ease. Matt Ryan is unquestionably better than Dak Prescott (who is no slouch himself) and will likely carve up the Packers' pass defense. It took an incredible catch and a field goal that just barely bent back between the goal posts allow the Packers to beat the Cowboys at the last second last week. As more and more of the Packers became beat up, Green Bay simply stopped scoring in the second half of last week's game, and the Cowboys nearly made a furious comeback despite being down 21-3 at one point. Unlike the Cowboys, the Falcons have the ability to both start and finish fast as they boast the league's most high-octane offense. The Seahawks had an unquestionably better defense than that of the Packers, and even they struggled to contain the likes of Devonta Freeman, Mohammad Sanu, and Julio Jones.
PREDICTION:
The Falcons are more offensively potent and far healthier than the Packers coming into this game. if Aaron Rodgers can pull of an upset without a healthy #1 and #2 wide receiver, he will solidify himself in my mind as the undisputed best quarterback in the league. The problem is that he gets little help from his defense, and Matt Ryan is playing nearly as well as Rodgers this season. The balanced offensive attack of the Falcons as well as Atlanta's pass rush will be enough to tip the scales in favor of Matt Ryan and company to send the man to his first Super Bowl. Let's just hope this one is exciting.
FALCONS 33-28
IT SADDENED EVERYONE IN RAVENS NATION TO LEARN ABOUT ZACHARY ORR'S EARLY RETIREMENT DUE TO INJURY, BUT THE RAVENS WILL FIND A WAY TO FILL HIS POSITION (HOPEFULLY CORREA STEPS WAY UP) AND CONTINUE TO GET BETTER AS A TEAM FOR NEXT SEASON. STAY TUNED OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT MONTH FOR MY 2017 NFL DRAFT WISHLIST!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! (GO GET SOME PLAYMAKERS)
Sunday, January 15, 2017
NFL SUNDAY PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
We have yet to see a game come down to the wire in this NFL post-season. I don't recall the last time we found ourselves 6 games into the playoffs without a game that could have gone either way in the final 5 minutes. I had hoped the Seahawks-Falcons game would give us such excitement, but after reviewing and analyzing statistics on the Seahawks road record of the second half of the season, it became clear that a win probably wasn't in the cards. I was certainly correct that Seattle would only score 20 points and that New England would put up 34 points on the Texans, but my disappointment with both of yesterday's games seemed to encapsulate an overall disappointing NFL season for fans.
Today's matchups of the Packers at the Cowboys and the Steelers at the Chiefs offer a little more optimism. If I had to take a guess, I'd say fans nationwide are evenly split on who will win between the Steelers and Chiefs, and the same probably goes for the Packers and Cowboys. You have, on the one hand, the Packers and Steelers who have been red-hot as of late and are both coming off of dominant wildcard round wins. On the other hand you have the Cowboys and Chiefs well rested coming off of bye weeks and enjoying homefield advantage. Neither of these teams appears to be heavily favored by Las Vegas oddsmakers, but if you've been reading Purple Nightmare for years you know quite well that Las Vegas is often way off. An in-depth look at the correct set of relevant statistics almost always gives a great deal of clarity regarding the outcome of a particular matchup.
PACKERS AT COWBOYS
The Green Bay Packers haven't lost a game now in nearly two months. Aaron Rodgers had, for a stretch of the regular season, appeared to have lost his edge, and the Packers looked as though they were in danger of missing the playoffs. They silenced all doubters with a 6-game win streak to finish the regular season and solidify themselves as the NFC North champions. Fresh in the minds of many fans is the performance Rodgers put up last week against one of the best defenses in football. That performance appears to have overshadowed just how phenomenal the Cowboys have been for nearly the entire regular season.
Dak Prescott isn't the best quarterback in the league, but he's exactly what the Cowboys need at this time. He has an amazing rushing attack and a historically elite offensive line to help keep pressure away as he goes through his progressions. The Cowboys have a single loss at home on the season and it was to a divisional rival. The Packers lost resoundingly 30-16 to the Cowboys in Green Bay in the middle of the regular season. The question that remains is whether or not the Packers have truly improved since the last time those teams met. For the answer, we must look to stats and facts about available player personnel.
One of the major factors that helped to lift the Packers well beyond their performance last season was the presence of Jordy Nelson in the regular season. Nelson put up monster stats with 1257 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns and 97 catches on the season. Not having Nelson last year led to a fairly sizeable drop off in offensive production for the Packers. Now Nelson has been ruled out for today's game against the Cowboys, and the remaining receivers aren't nearly as impactful. That isn't to say that the Packers don't have other capable targets, but the next best receivers behind Jordy Nelson are Devante Adams (who is already on the field WITH Nelson on the opposite side) and Randal Cobb who has had a disappointing 610 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns on the season.
Without the Packers' #1 receiver on the field, the Cowboys will have one less big factor with which to contend this Sunday. Having Devante Adams, Randal Cobb and a backup receiver with less than 400 receiver yards on the year will be much easier to defend against than Nelson, Adams, and Cobb. Anytime you face a team without its true #1 receiver, the opponent becomes tremendously easier to defend. Facing the Steelers without Antonio Brown, the Bengals without A.J. Green, or the Giants without Odell Beckham Jr. means you're facing a profoundly different team.
Winning 7 games in a row is never easy and it's always a major accomplishment in the NFL. The question is whether that winning streak is indicative of major improvements to the Packers that would suggest they're a better team than the one that lost badly to the Cowboys in Green Bay earlier this season. Let's first take a look at the teams the Packers beat during this streak.
The Packers began their current streak with a decisive win over an Eagles team in an utter tailspin with many key injuries and a talented but struggling rookie quarterback. Did that mean that Green Bay had suddenly become better? Probably not, but things started to look up when they had a solid victory the following week against the Texans. The Texans weren't a bad team this season, but beating the Texans in Lambeau does absolutely nothing to drum up confidence about the Packers chances of beating a Cowboys team that drubbed them in the previous meeting. Next the Packers beat a strong Seahawks team in Green Bay, but as the second half of the season and last night's game against the Falcons proved, the Seahawks simply couldn't produce serious enough offense on the road in order to be a competitive team down the stretch. Next came an extremely telling matchup with the Bears in Chicago in which the Packers narrowly escaped defeat 30-27. The fact that the Packers defense on the road allowed one of the worst teams in the league to score 27 points does not suggest this is a Packers team that can go on the road and unseat the Cowboys as the best team in the NFC.
The Packers then beat the Vikings at home, but as Aaron Rodgers and company are not playing at home today, that game offers little in the way of insight to today's matchup. The final game of the regular season was a tough fought 31-24 win in Detroit over a solid Lions team that ultimately made it to the playoffs. That tells us that the Packers can beat a playoff team on the road, but the Lions weren't nearly as dominant as the Cowboys over the course of this season.
I try not to enter into analysis with my mind made up about who is going to win in playoff matchup, but this is one case where it's hard to ignore major facts that have been swirling around in my head all week. When I look at the Packers and what exactly they have to work with as they head into this matchup it's tough not to be underwhelmed by their weaponry. The Packers have the 22nd ranked defense in the NFL, and their pass defense is ranked 31st in the league. Green Bay ranks 8th in the league against the run, but that won't mean much against a rested Cowboys offensive line that showed it could run the ball with a banged up offensive line against the BEST run defense in the league earlier this season. If the Packers commit everything they have to stopping the Cowboys rushing attack, they probably won't be successful, and more importantly, they'll leave themselves open to being absolutely TORCHED by the likes of Cole Beasley, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten.
The Cowboys defense, meanwhile, ranks 5th in points allowed per game, 1st in run defense, and 26th in passing yards allowed. A big part of the reason the Cowboys have allowed the level of passing yards as they have this season is injuries to their secondary. Now the only member of the Cowboys secondary on the injury report is Morris Claiborne and even he was a full participant in practice this week. The Packers are absolutely one-dimensional with no serious ground attack to speak of and they'll be going up against a thunderous Dallas run defense. One might think the Cowboys could be attacked through the air, but that will be particularly difficult since the Packers will be without their biggest receiving weapon and the source of nearly 40% of Aaron Rodgers touchdown passes this season.
None of this is to say that the Cowboys can't be beaten, but the Packers in this particular state of heath (or lack thereof) don't appear to be the team to do it. The Cowboys showed earlier this season that they're capable of routing the Packers in Green Bay, so facing the Packers in Arlington doesn't seem like a tremendous challenge, especially without Jordy Nelson. The only team to actually beat the Cowboys when they played their starters this season (the Eagles game doesn't count) was the Giants, and the Giants had two things that the Packers lacked. The first thing was divisional familiarity. The Giants know exactly what they're in store for schematically when they go up against the Cowboys. The other thing was an elite defense. Sure that elite defense ultimately buckled in the loss in Green Bay last weekend, but that had more to do with the fact that the Giants offense simply couldn't sustain production on the road this season.
PREDICTION:
The Packers aren't haven't proven strong enough on the road this season to beat a team at the level of a rested Dallas Cowboys squad. The Cowboys aren't perfect, but their offensive line allows them to control the clock, and their offensive line rested for two weeks will be more than Green Bay will likely be able to handle. The Cowboys proved earlier this season that they can matchup incredibly well with the Packers and that was long before Jordy Nelson was injured. This may not be a blowout, but it also doesn't have to be a blowout. The Cowboys find a way to control the clock late in games and take away late opportunities over other teams to catch up. Nothing statistically suggests that that Aaron Rodgers can win this game on the road, especially without his #1 wideout.
COWBOYS 31-21
STEELERS AT CHIEFS
This is yet another example of a matchup between two quality teams that met up earlier this season. It's true that the Steelers haven't been nearly as impressive as they have been at home. The Steelers, for example, were destroyed by the Eagles on the road, beaten soundly by the Ravens, and embarrassed by the Dolphins. Pittsburgh does have a strong road record at 5-3, but that has had more to do with the opponents they faced including the horrible Browns, the Colts without Andrew Luck, the loser Bengals in an extremely tight game, and the Bills in the snow. What the Steelers HAVEN'T done is beaten a serious team on the road all season.
All week I've heard and read people stating they feel the Chiefs would go to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs, after all, DID win the most competitive division in football this season, and they swept the Raiders before Derek Carr broke his leg. The problem is that the Chiefs also lost to the Steelers...and they lost to them BADLY. The Chiefs lost to the Steelers 43-14 in Pittsburgh, and it's difficult to assume that a 29 point deficit would have been magically erased had the game been played in Arrowhead stadium. The Chiefs defense simply doesn't match up well with what the Steelers have to offer offensively, and the Steelers defense is actually vastly improved over what Kansas City faced when these two teams last met.
The health of deep threat Sammie Coates and the emergence of Eli Rogers as a quality receiver has meant problems for opposing teams for weeks now. The Steelers, as a matter of fact, haven't in 8 weeks and that's not something the Chiefs can say about themselves. The presence of Stephon Tuitt and Ryan Shazier means the Chiefs won't have an easy day running the football. The aforementioned health of Coates and Rodgers as well as the ever-looming presence of Le'veon Bell means teams can't focus all their attention defensively on the explosive Antonio Brown.
As a Ravens fan, I would love nothing more to be proven totally wrong with a Steelers loss today, but I dare the Chiefs to rise to the occasion and make this the best game of this post-season. I haven't seen a dominant Chiefs team at home or on the road. Instead I've seen one that is solid, but not elite. The one major factor that could throw all of my reasoning off is the fact that Justin Houston didn't play last time these two teams faced off, but the Steelers offensive line is strong enough this year that Houston along with the setting of this game won't be enough to make up for the 29 point deficit the Steelers created against Kansas City earlier this season. The Steelers are an outdoor team used to inclement weather. This kind of atmosphere and climate simply won't phase them.
PREDICTION:
There have been times over the past 5 years of writing this blog where I've spent too little time with deep analysis of statistics, and my prediction has thusly been proven incorrect and poorly thought out soon thereafter. Without a tremendous amount of number crunching, I'm predicting a sound win for the Steelers and if I'm proven wrong--well I can't be too unhappy about that with purple running through my veins...
STEELERS 30-23
ENJOY WHAT HOPEFULLY SHOULD BE BETTER PLAYOFF FOOTBALL TONIGHT!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!! (Go figure out how to fix the team)
Today's matchups of the Packers at the Cowboys and the Steelers at the Chiefs offer a little more optimism. If I had to take a guess, I'd say fans nationwide are evenly split on who will win between the Steelers and Chiefs, and the same probably goes for the Packers and Cowboys. You have, on the one hand, the Packers and Steelers who have been red-hot as of late and are both coming off of dominant wildcard round wins. On the other hand you have the Cowboys and Chiefs well rested coming off of bye weeks and enjoying homefield advantage. Neither of these teams appears to be heavily favored by Las Vegas oddsmakers, but if you've been reading Purple Nightmare for years you know quite well that Las Vegas is often way off. An in-depth look at the correct set of relevant statistics almost always gives a great deal of clarity regarding the outcome of a particular matchup.
PACKERS AT COWBOYS
The Green Bay Packers haven't lost a game now in nearly two months. Aaron Rodgers had, for a stretch of the regular season, appeared to have lost his edge, and the Packers looked as though they were in danger of missing the playoffs. They silenced all doubters with a 6-game win streak to finish the regular season and solidify themselves as the NFC North champions. Fresh in the minds of many fans is the performance Rodgers put up last week against one of the best defenses in football. That performance appears to have overshadowed just how phenomenal the Cowboys have been for nearly the entire regular season.
Dak Prescott isn't the best quarterback in the league, but he's exactly what the Cowboys need at this time. He has an amazing rushing attack and a historically elite offensive line to help keep pressure away as he goes through his progressions. The Cowboys have a single loss at home on the season and it was to a divisional rival. The Packers lost resoundingly 30-16 to the Cowboys in Green Bay in the middle of the regular season. The question that remains is whether or not the Packers have truly improved since the last time those teams met. For the answer, we must look to stats and facts about available player personnel.
One of the major factors that helped to lift the Packers well beyond their performance last season was the presence of Jordy Nelson in the regular season. Nelson put up monster stats with 1257 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns and 97 catches on the season. Not having Nelson last year led to a fairly sizeable drop off in offensive production for the Packers. Now Nelson has been ruled out for today's game against the Cowboys, and the remaining receivers aren't nearly as impactful. That isn't to say that the Packers don't have other capable targets, but the next best receivers behind Jordy Nelson are Devante Adams (who is already on the field WITH Nelson on the opposite side) and Randal Cobb who has had a disappointing 610 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns on the season.
Without the Packers' #1 receiver on the field, the Cowboys will have one less big factor with which to contend this Sunday. Having Devante Adams, Randal Cobb and a backup receiver with less than 400 receiver yards on the year will be much easier to defend against than Nelson, Adams, and Cobb. Anytime you face a team without its true #1 receiver, the opponent becomes tremendously easier to defend. Facing the Steelers without Antonio Brown, the Bengals without A.J. Green, or the Giants without Odell Beckham Jr. means you're facing a profoundly different team.
Winning 7 games in a row is never easy and it's always a major accomplishment in the NFL. The question is whether that winning streak is indicative of major improvements to the Packers that would suggest they're a better team than the one that lost badly to the Cowboys in Green Bay earlier this season. Let's first take a look at the teams the Packers beat during this streak.
The Packers began their current streak with a decisive win over an Eagles team in an utter tailspin with many key injuries and a talented but struggling rookie quarterback. Did that mean that Green Bay had suddenly become better? Probably not, but things started to look up when they had a solid victory the following week against the Texans. The Texans weren't a bad team this season, but beating the Texans in Lambeau does absolutely nothing to drum up confidence about the Packers chances of beating a Cowboys team that drubbed them in the previous meeting. Next the Packers beat a strong Seahawks team in Green Bay, but as the second half of the season and last night's game against the Falcons proved, the Seahawks simply couldn't produce serious enough offense on the road in order to be a competitive team down the stretch. Next came an extremely telling matchup with the Bears in Chicago in which the Packers narrowly escaped defeat 30-27. The fact that the Packers defense on the road allowed one of the worst teams in the league to score 27 points does not suggest this is a Packers team that can go on the road and unseat the Cowboys as the best team in the NFC.
The Packers then beat the Vikings at home, but as Aaron Rodgers and company are not playing at home today, that game offers little in the way of insight to today's matchup. The final game of the regular season was a tough fought 31-24 win in Detroit over a solid Lions team that ultimately made it to the playoffs. That tells us that the Packers can beat a playoff team on the road, but the Lions weren't nearly as dominant as the Cowboys over the course of this season.
I try not to enter into analysis with my mind made up about who is going to win in playoff matchup, but this is one case where it's hard to ignore major facts that have been swirling around in my head all week. When I look at the Packers and what exactly they have to work with as they head into this matchup it's tough not to be underwhelmed by their weaponry. The Packers have the 22nd ranked defense in the NFL, and their pass defense is ranked 31st in the league. Green Bay ranks 8th in the league against the run, but that won't mean much against a rested Cowboys offensive line that showed it could run the ball with a banged up offensive line against the BEST run defense in the league earlier this season. If the Packers commit everything they have to stopping the Cowboys rushing attack, they probably won't be successful, and more importantly, they'll leave themselves open to being absolutely TORCHED by the likes of Cole Beasley, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten.
The Cowboys defense, meanwhile, ranks 5th in points allowed per game, 1st in run defense, and 26th in passing yards allowed. A big part of the reason the Cowboys have allowed the level of passing yards as they have this season is injuries to their secondary. Now the only member of the Cowboys secondary on the injury report is Morris Claiborne and even he was a full participant in practice this week. The Packers are absolutely one-dimensional with no serious ground attack to speak of and they'll be going up against a thunderous Dallas run defense. One might think the Cowboys could be attacked through the air, but that will be particularly difficult since the Packers will be without their biggest receiving weapon and the source of nearly 40% of Aaron Rodgers touchdown passes this season.
None of this is to say that the Cowboys can't be beaten, but the Packers in this particular state of heath (or lack thereof) don't appear to be the team to do it. The Cowboys showed earlier this season that they're capable of routing the Packers in Green Bay, so facing the Packers in Arlington doesn't seem like a tremendous challenge, especially without Jordy Nelson. The only team to actually beat the Cowboys when they played their starters this season (the Eagles game doesn't count) was the Giants, and the Giants had two things that the Packers lacked. The first thing was divisional familiarity. The Giants know exactly what they're in store for schematically when they go up against the Cowboys. The other thing was an elite defense. Sure that elite defense ultimately buckled in the loss in Green Bay last weekend, but that had more to do with the fact that the Giants offense simply couldn't sustain production on the road this season.
PREDICTION:
The Packers aren't haven't proven strong enough on the road this season to beat a team at the level of a rested Dallas Cowboys squad. The Cowboys aren't perfect, but their offensive line allows them to control the clock, and their offensive line rested for two weeks will be more than Green Bay will likely be able to handle. The Cowboys proved earlier this season that they can matchup incredibly well with the Packers and that was long before Jordy Nelson was injured. This may not be a blowout, but it also doesn't have to be a blowout. The Cowboys find a way to control the clock late in games and take away late opportunities over other teams to catch up. Nothing statistically suggests that that Aaron Rodgers can win this game on the road, especially without his #1 wideout.
COWBOYS 31-21
STEELERS AT CHIEFS
This is yet another example of a matchup between two quality teams that met up earlier this season. It's true that the Steelers haven't been nearly as impressive as they have been at home. The Steelers, for example, were destroyed by the Eagles on the road, beaten soundly by the Ravens, and embarrassed by the Dolphins. Pittsburgh does have a strong road record at 5-3, but that has had more to do with the opponents they faced including the horrible Browns, the Colts without Andrew Luck, the loser Bengals in an extremely tight game, and the Bills in the snow. What the Steelers HAVEN'T done is beaten a serious team on the road all season.
All week I've heard and read people stating they feel the Chiefs would go to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs, after all, DID win the most competitive division in football this season, and they swept the Raiders before Derek Carr broke his leg. The problem is that the Chiefs also lost to the Steelers...and they lost to them BADLY. The Chiefs lost to the Steelers 43-14 in Pittsburgh, and it's difficult to assume that a 29 point deficit would have been magically erased had the game been played in Arrowhead stadium. The Chiefs defense simply doesn't match up well with what the Steelers have to offer offensively, and the Steelers defense is actually vastly improved over what Kansas City faced when these two teams last met.
The health of deep threat Sammie Coates and the emergence of Eli Rogers as a quality receiver has meant problems for opposing teams for weeks now. The Steelers, as a matter of fact, haven't in 8 weeks and that's not something the Chiefs can say about themselves. The presence of Stephon Tuitt and Ryan Shazier means the Chiefs won't have an easy day running the football. The aforementioned health of Coates and Rodgers as well as the ever-looming presence of Le'veon Bell means teams can't focus all their attention defensively on the explosive Antonio Brown.
As a Ravens fan, I would love nothing more to be proven totally wrong with a Steelers loss today, but I dare the Chiefs to rise to the occasion and make this the best game of this post-season. I haven't seen a dominant Chiefs team at home or on the road. Instead I've seen one that is solid, but not elite. The one major factor that could throw all of my reasoning off is the fact that Justin Houston didn't play last time these two teams faced off, but the Steelers offensive line is strong enough this year that Houston along with the setting of this game won't be enough to make up for the 29 point deficit the Steelers created against Kansas City earlier this season. The Steelers are an outdoor team used to inclement weather. This kind of atmosphere and climate simply won't phase them.
PREDICTION:
There have been times over the past 5 years of writing this blog where I've spent too little time with deep analysis of statistics, and my prediction has thusly been proven incorrect and poorly thought out soon thereafter. Without a tremendous amount of number crunching, I'm predicting a sound win for the Steelers and if I'm proven wrong--well I can't be too unhappy about that with purple running through my veins...
STEELERS 30-23
ENJOY WHAT HOPEFULLY SHOULD BE BETTER PLAYOFF FOOTBALL TONIGHT!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!! (Go figure out how to fix the team)
Saturday, January 14, 2017
NFL SATURDAY PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Saturday's games don't appear nearly as exciting as Sunday's playoff matchups this week. The chances that the Texans, who lost to the Patriots 27-0 with Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo out earlier this season, have any legitimate shot of going into Foxboro and upsetting a rested Patriots team are slim to none. That matchup epitomizes the lopsided level of competition found in nearly every playoff game thus far. Fortunately for NFL fans, today's first game could end up being the tough fought battle that usually characterizes the playoffs.
SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS
This isn't the first time these teams will have met this season. The Falcons lost to the Seahawks 26-24 in Seattle in Week 6, but things will be quite a bit different over 3000 miles away in the Georgia Dome this time around. The Falcons are rested and boast the NFL's top scoring offense averaging a whopping 33.8 points per game. Not only have they put the most points on the board this season, but they've done it in a far more balanced fashion than we're used to seeing from Matt Ryan and company. The Falcons rank 5th in rushing yards per game and 3rd in passing yards per game. It's the potent rushing attack that will make it difficult for the Seahawks to simply pin their ears back and go after Matt Ryan, who is already quite mobile and evasive already.
The Seahawks dominated the Lions last weekend at home, but that shouldn't have shocked anyone. Not only are the Seahawks traditionally strong at home, but they were playing against a dome team with no historical road success in the playoffs in decades. The Seahawks, however, are 3-4-1 on the road this season, and their secondary no longer features Earl Thomas after the All-Pro safety went on injured reserve earlier this season.
People often say that defense travels well, but many great defensive teams rely on a home crowd to suffocate opposing offenses with noise. The Seahawks enjoy record-setting home crowd noise, and Seahawks fans pride themselves on being known collectively as the 12th man for their profound effect on the outcome of games. The Seahawks will enjoy no such advantage when they take the field later today.
The Seahawks appeared to have a ferocious offense last week with spectacular catches coming from relatively unknown back up receivers and a thunderous running game, but nothing about that performance can be applied to today's prediction. As I look over the Seahawk's last few road games I'm appalled by what I see. The Seahawks probably hit a peak when they went into Foxboro earlier this season and beat the Patriots, but they haven't flashed that level of dominance on the road since. Seattle has, in fact, been offensively atrocious on the road for quite some time.
Since beating the Patriots in Foxboro 9 weeks ago, the Seahawks have played 3 road games against the Buccaneers, Packers, and 49ers. The Seahawks lost to the Buccaneers 14-5, got dominated by the Packers 38-10, and barely squeaked by a terrible 49ers team 25-23. That means that the Seahawks have averaged just 13.33 points per game on the road in the second half of the regular season. That average might be a lot lower if their final road win hadn't been against the 49ers. The 49ers, after all, have the worst scoring defense in the league and allowed a depressing 30 points per game this season. The fact that the Seahawks couldn't even score as much as the 49ers allow on average is truly telling about Seattle's road offense.
The more I look at the drop-off in the Seahawks offense takes on the road, the more profound it appears. The Seahawks offense scored a commanding 28.375 points per game at home, but that number dropped to an alarming 15.875 on the road this season--that's nearly a 2 touchdown disparity! That's one of the most pronounced home-road disparities of any winning team in the NFL this year. It's difficult to know why that is the case, but it's a horrible sign for Seattle.
Now the Falcons don't boast a high powered defense. Atlanta ranks 25th in overall offensive yards allowed this season, 28th in passing yards allowed, and 17th in rushing yards allowed. Most importantly, the Falcons ranked 27th in points allowed, and that has been reflected in the close, high scoring games they've played this season. The Falcons have also allowed a staggering 27.75 points per game at home and went 5-3 in the Georgia Dome this season. The key is that the Falcons scored an average of exactly 35 points per game at home this season.
PREDICTION:
It's difficult to insist that this game will be a blowout because of all the close games the Falcons have played this season, but the Seahawks offense has been so perplexingly bad on the road for the past couple of months that it's difficult to imagine them being able to keep up with the NFL's most potent offense. The Falcons didn't exactly struggle to score on the Seahawks in Seattle earlier this season, and now they'll be facing that same Seahawks defense without the 12th man and without Earl Thomas. Seattle has stated that they aim to put big pressure on Matt Ryan, but it's difficult to imagine them having great success doing so with Devonta Freeman running the football. The Falcons defense may not be great, but it's around the middle of the pack against the run, and that should help them against a run-heavy Seahawks offense. The bottom line is that the Seahawks offense can't help their own defense out enough on the road to ultimately outscore the top offense in football. The Seahawks are a force at home, but just plain bad on the road in recent months.
FALCONS 27-20
TEXANS AT PATRIOTS
I really don't feel compelled to dignify this matchup with statistical analysis. Some people will points to the Texans defense as a reason that this game could be interesting, but those same people forget that the Patriots defense allowed fewer points than the Texans defense this season. The Patriots defense, in fact, allowed the fewest points of any team in the NFL this season. It is, therefore, difficult to give any unit on the Texans team any sort of advantage over any particular unit of the Patriots.
Let's not forget that the Patriots used their third string quarterback to beat this Texans team 27-0 in Week 3 of the regular season. This is a Texans team that only went 9-7 and still managed to win an incredibly weak AFC South division. Much like the Seahawks the Texans are not an offensive power on the road. The Texans, in fact, average a disturbing 12.25 points on the road, and they're about to go up against the NFL's stingiest defense. The Texans are 2-6 on the road this season with their only road wins coming against the Jaguars and Colts.
No team can go into Foxborough having only scored 98 points in 8 road games over the course of a regular season and expect to beat a Patriots team coming off of a bye week. This game will be fun to watch only for Patriots fans (and even they might get bored after a little while) and anyone who bet that the Patriots will win by even MORE than the current 15 point spread. Ironically, the Texans may once again see a Patriots backup quarterback, but it will only be because Bill Belichick decides to sit Brady as the man will undoubtedly be exhausted from beating the Texans mercilessly.
PREDICTION:
If a third string Patriots quarterback can lead New England to a 27-0 victory against the Texans, Tom Brady will likely put up nearly the same type of points before the 4th quarter. The Texans offense simply can't stay on the field long enough to give the Houston's defense a chance to breathe. The Texans won't even begin to score (if they score at all) until Bill starts to rest even many of his defensive starters in the 4th quarter. Gotta save some for next week. Just because I'm being cavalier in my assessment of this upcoming blowout doesn't mean the Patriots didn't spend every minute of the past two weeks zeroing in on how to ensure a decisive victory. Expect a focused Patriots team looking to take care of business before moving on to the next, presumably more challenging game.
PATRIOTS 34-10
As far as the Ravens are concerned, it appears as though the brain trust of Ozzie Newsome, Eric DeCosta, John Harbaugh, Steve Bisciotti and several others will adjourn to Florida to map out the gameplan for the off-season. The biggest off-season concerns will be bolstering the offensive line, adding a reliable veteran in the general mold of Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith, finding serious cornerbacks via trade, the draft, or free agency, and figuring out how to create maneuverability in the salary cap by cutting, trading, or renegotiating with veterans.
The Ravens never truly had the pieces to make a push for a Super Bowl this season, but they certainly added a handful of necessary pieces. Eric Weddle and Mike Wallace added comparable veteran production to what the Ravens had with Torrey Smith and Ed Reed several years ago, and Baltimore can expect to get at least good 1-2 quality seasons out of each player. Pressure on Joe Flacco to work with and develop chemistry with his receivers should yield good results in the coming months. Joe didn't have an off-season to train in 2016 as he spent all of his time recovering from a torn ACL. Flacco will have far more time and pressure to correct habitual mistakes seen over the past season, and he'll be able to work with Marty Mornhinweg as well.
What we do know about this Ravens team is that it was able to be far more competitive on the road against many of the best teams in the league this year than a good number of the teams that actually made the playoffs. The 4-game losing streak of the first half of the season took away the ability of what ultimately turned out to be a reasonably good team to make the playoffs. When I met John Harbaugh last April and he took a brief look at this website, he asked me if I had been one of the writers to criticize harshly for a 5-11 season in 2015. I told him that no team could withstand that level of injuries and be successful, and I told him that sometimes a team needs to take one step back in order to take two steps forward.
The Ravens did take a couple of steps forward this season as they won 3 more games and improved their defense overall. By only winning 8 games, the Ravens set themselves up to pick in the middle of the draft order, and that may very well yield the next Ravens Pro Bowler whether it be an outstanding offensive lineman, a talented cornerback, an elite running back with breakaway speed, or a ferocious pass rushing outside linebacker.
Baltimore had a host of questions and a tremendous about of uncertainty following the 2015 season. This time around they no longer have to wonder about key veterans coming back from major injuries, and they know quite well that they're only a couple of plays in several games away from being 10-6, 11-5, or even 12-4. Their new strength coach, Steve Saunders, did an amazing job helping to make sure athletes took the preventative measures to reduce the chances of ACL tears, and surprise surprise....there were none to speak of in 2016. This team is in a good place going into 2017, and the organization has shown in the past how well it can do under pressure.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS
This isn't the first time these teams will have met this season. The Falcons lost to the Seahawks 26-24 in Seattle in Week 6, but things will be quite a bit different over 3000 miles away in the Georgia Dome this time around. The Falcons are rested and boast the NFL's top scoring offense averaging a whopping 33.8 points per game. Not only have they put the most points on the board this season, but they've done it in a far more balanced fashion than we're used to seeing from Matt Ryan and company. The Falcons rank 5th in rushing yards per game and 3rd in passing yards per game. It's the potent rushing attack that will make it difficult for the Seahawks to simply pin their ears back and go after Matt Ryan, who is already quite mobile and evasive already.
The Seahawks dominated the Lions last weekend at home, but that shouldn't have shocked anyone. Not only are the Seahawks traditionally strong at home, but they were playing against a dome team with no historical road success in the playoffs in decades. The Seahawks, however, are 3-4-1 on the road this season, and their secondary no longer features Earl Thomas after the All-Pro safety went on injured reserve earlier this season.
People often say that defense travels well, but many great defensive teams rely on a home crowd to suffocate opposing offenses with noise. The Seahawks enjoy record-setting home crowd noise, and Seahawks fans pride themselves on being known collectively as the 12th man for their profound effect on the outcome of games. The Seahawks will enjoy no such advantage when they take the field later today.
The Seahawks appeared to have a ferocious offense last week with spectacular catches coming from relatively unknown back up receivers and a thunderous running game, but nothing about that performance can be applied to today's prediction. As I look over the Seahawk's last few road games I'm appalled by what I see. The Seahawks probably hit a peak when they went into Foxboro earlier this season and beat the Patriots, but they haven't flashed that level of dominance on the road since. Seattle has, in fact, been offensively atrocious on the road for quite some time.
Since beating the Patriots in Foxboro 9 weeks ago, the Seahawks have played 3 road games against the Buccaneers, Packers, and 49ers. The Seahawks lost to the Buccaneers 14-5, got dominated by the Packers 38-10, and barely squeaked by a terrible 49ers team 25-23. That means that the Seahawks have averaged just 13.33 points per game on the road in the second half of the regular season. That average might be a lot lower if their final road win hadn't been against the 49ers. The 49ers, after all, have the worst scoring defense in the league and allowed a depressing 30 points per game this season. The fact that the Seahawks couldn't even score as much as the 49ers allow on average is truly telling about Seattle's road offense.
The more I look at the drop-off in the Seahawks offense takes on the road, the more profound it appears. The Seahawks offense scored a commanding 28.375 points per game at home, but that number dropped to an alarming 15.875 on the road this season--that's nearly a 2 touchdown disparity! That's one of the most pronounced home-road disparities of any winning team in the NFL this year. It's difficult to know why that is the case, but it's a horrible sign for Seattle.
Now the Falcons don't boast a high powered defense. Atlanta ranks 25th in overall offensive yards allowed this season, 28th in passing yards allowed, and 17th in rushing yards allowed. Most importantly, the Falcons ranked 27th in points allowed, and that has been reflected in the close, high scoring games they've played this season. The Falcons have also allowed a staggering 27.75 points per game at home and went 5-3 in the Georgia Dome this season. The key is that the Falcons scored an average of exactly 35 points per game at home this season.
PREDICTION:
It's difficult to insist that this game will be a blowout because of all the close games the Falcons have played this season, but the Seahawks offense has been so perplexingly bad on the road for the past couple of months that it's difficult to imagine them being able to keep up with the NFL's most potent offense. The Falcons didn't exactly struggle to score on the Seahawks in Seattle earlier this season, and now they'll be facing that same Seahawks defense without the 12th man and without Earl Thomas. Seattle has stated that they aim to put big pressure on Matt Ryan, but it's difficult to imagine them having great success doing so with Devonta Freeman running the football. The Falcons defense may not be great, but it's around the middle of the pack against the run, and that should help them against a run-heavy Seahawks offense. The bottom line is that the Seahawks offense can't help their own defense out enough on the road to ultimately outscore the top offense in football. The Seahawks are a force at home, but just plain bad on the road in recent months.
FALCONS 27-20
TEXANS AT PATRIOTS
I really don't feel compelled to dignify this matchup with statistical analysis. Some people will points to the Texans defense as a reason that this game could be interesting, but those same people forget that the Patriots defense allowed fewer points than the Texans defense this season. The Patriots defense, in fact, allowed the fewest points of any team in the NFL this season. It is, therefore, difficult to give any unit on the Texans team any sort of advantage over any particular unit of the Patriots.
Let's not forget that the Patriots used their third string quarterback to beat this Texans team 27-0 in Week 3 of the regular season. This is a Texans team that only went 9-7 and still managed to win an incredibly weak AFC South division. Much like the Seahawks the Texans are not an offensive power on the road. The Texans, in fact, average a disturbing 12.25 points on the road, and they're about to go up against the NFL's stingiest defense. The Texans are 2-6 on the road this season with their only road wins coming against the Jaguars and Colts.
No team can go into Foxborough having only scored 98 points in 8 road games over the course of a regular season and expect to beat a Patriots team coming off of a bye week. This game will be fun to watch only for Patriots fans (and even they might get bored after a little while) and anyone who bet that the Patriots will win by even MORE than the current 15 point spread. Ironically, the Texans may once again see a Patriots backup quarterback, but it will only be because Bill Belichick decides to sit Brady as the man will undoubtedly be exhausted from beating the Texans mercilessly.
PREDICTION:
If a third string Patriots quarterback can lead New England to a 27-0 victory against the Texans, Tom Brady will likely put up nearly the same type of points before the 4th quarter. The Texans offense simply can't stay on the field long enough to give the Houston's defense a chance to breathe. The Texans won't even begin to score (if they score at all) until Bill starts to rest even many of his defensive starters in the 4th quarter. Gotta save some for next week. Just because I'm being cavalier in my assessment of this upcoming blowout doesn't mean the Patriots didn't spend every minute of the past two weeks zeroing in on how to ensure a decisive victory. Expect a focused Patriots team looking to take care of business before moving on to the next, presumably more challenging game.
PATRIOTS 34-10
As far as the Ravens are concerned, it appears as though the brain trust of Ozzie Newsome, Eric DeCosta, John Harbaugh, Steve Bisciotti and several others will adjourn to Florida to map out the gameplan for the off-season. The biggest off-season concerns will be bolstering the offensive line, adding a reliable veteran in the general mold of Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith, finding serious cornerbacks via trade, the draft, or free agency, and figuring out how to create maneuverability in the salary cap by cutting, trading, or renegotiating with veterans.
The Ravens never truly had the pieces to make a push for a Super Bowl this season, but they certainly added a handful of necessary pieces. Eric Weddle and Mike Wallace added comparable veteran production to what the Ravens had with Torrey Smith and Ed Reed several years ago, and Baltimore can expect to get at least good 1-2 quality seasons out of each player. Pressure on Joe Flacco to work with and develop chemistry with his receivers should yield good results in the coming months. Joe didn't have an off-season to train in 2016 as he spent all of his time recovering from a torn ACL. Flacco will have far more time and pressure to correct habitual mistakes seen over the past season, and he'll be able to work with Marty Mornhinweg as well.
What we do know about this Ravens team is that it was able to be far more competitive on the road against many of the best teams in the league this year than a good number of the teams that actually made the playoffs. The 4-game losing streak of the first half of the season took away the ability of what ultimately turned out to be a reasonably good team to make the playoffs. When I met John Harbaugh last April and he took a brief look at this website, he asked me if I had been one of the writers to criticize harshly for a 5-11 season in 2015. I told him that no team could withstand that level of injuries and be successful, and I told him that sometimes a team needs to take one step back in order to take two steps forward.
The Ravens did take a couple of steps forward this season as they won 3 more games and improved their defense overall. By only winning 8 games, the Ravens set themselves up to pick in the middle of the draft order, and that may very well yield the next Ravens Pro Bowler whether it be an outstanding offensive lineman, a talented cornerback, an elite running back with breakaway speed, or a ferocious pass rushing outside linebacker.
Baltimore had a host of questions and a tremendous about of uncertainty following the 2015 season. This time around they no longer have to wonder about key veterans coming back from major injuries, and they know quite well that they're only a couple of plays in several games away from being 10-6, 11-5, or even 12-4. Their new strength coach, Steve Saunders, did an amazing job helping to make sure athletes took the preventative measures to reduce the chances of ACL tears, and surprise surprise....there were none to speak of in 2016. This team is in a good place going into 2017, and the organization has shown in the past how well it can do under pressure.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, January 8, 2017
PURPLE NIGHTMARE WILDCARD PREDICTIONS: GIANTS AT PACKERS
GIANTS AT PACKERS
This is the first truly challenging prediction of the wildcard weekend. Both the Giants and the Packers have been on an absolute tear as of late, and Eli Manning has won his last two playoff games against the Packers in Green Bay. The questions that remain are whether or not the Giants defense is good enough to stifle Aaron Rodgers this time around and whether or not the Packers have enough defensively to slow down a dangerous stable of Giants receivers.
The Giants and Packers have both played close games against many of the same opponents, but the style of play has been profoundly different. Over the course of their current 6 game winning streak, the Packers have had to rely heavily on their prolific offense to beat opponents. The Packers have averaged 30.83 points per game during that 6-game stretch, and have allowed some teams to keep things close. The Packers only beat the Bears 30-27, and they only beat the Lions 31-24. Those games, however, were played on the road. The Packers defense fared much better in home games during the last 6 weeks. The Packers absolutely dominated the mighty Seahawks 38-10, they made a mockery of the Vikings elite defense 38-25, and they soundly defeated a Texans team that finished the season with the #1 ranked defense in the league 21-13.
The Vikings and Texans have little offense to speak of, and the Seahawks aren't nearly the same team, especially on the road, without Earl Thomas, but it's difficult to deny the fact that Aaron Rodgers has been utterly spectacular during the Packers push for a playoff berth. There was a point in this season where the Packers were thought to have virtually no chance of turning their season around, but Rodgers threw 40 touchdown passes with only 7 interceptions to erased all doubts. Meanwhile, Eli Manning has thrown for significantly fewer touchdowns (26) and over double the interceptions (16) but his defense has helped tremendously as they've won 9 of their last 11 games including victories over the Cowboys, Lions and Ravens. The Giants have been far worse on the road that at home, though, and that could be a major problem today.
The Giants already lost to the Packers in Green Bay earlier this season 23-16. That was the last game before the Giants began their hot streak, but it can't be ignored statistically. The Giants have, in fact, struggled hard against relatively competitive teams on the road. During their current hot streak, the only resounding road win the Giants had was 27-13 over the Browns. Other than that, the Giants narrowly defeated the Redskins 19-10, lost to the Eagles 24-19, and lost to the Steelers 24-14. The rest of their games over the last 11 weeks have been at home where the G-men have fared quite well. There's no question that this is a quality Giants team, but they're not the same road warriors that bullied their way through the playoffs in the 2011-2012 post-season.
The Packers on the other hand, are 6-2 at home this season. They had a rocky first couple of months of the regular season, but they haven't lost in 6 weeks. The Packers' mid-season losses to the Colts and Cowboys had far more to do with defensive injuries than anything else, and Rodgers simply had not yet found any sort of rhythm. Rodgers had little trouble moving the ball at home against the Giants, and as hot as he is right now, it's difficult he'll struggle tonight. I would love to be able to predict a Giants upset here because I dream about them upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowl for a third time, but the Giants teams that achieved those miraculous upsets were literally better on the road than at home for one reason or another. This group hasn't demonstrated that trait.
I thought the Giants stats for this season would give me some kind of hope that they could upset the Packers, but that was only because I hadn't yet examined their road record. This game shouldn't be a blowout as the Giants still play great defense, but I doubt we'll see the Giants offense put on a fireworks display in the coldest stadium in the league...at night. We may have to wait another week for truly competitive playoff football.
PREDICTION:
Eli has shown in the past that he needs only to get INTO the playoffs to make a run, but he hasn't shown enough this season to suggest he can carry his team on the road. The x-factor in 2011 was the return of Osi Umeniyora to bolster the Giants' pass rushing capability just in time for the playoffs, but no such x-factor will be returning today. Aaron Rodgers may not be able to take his team on the road and beat the Cowboys, they could lose to a team such as the Falcons, but today he'll continue his late-season winning streak for one more game.
PACKERS 24-20
WHATEVER HAPPENS, LET'S HOPE FOR SOME EXCITEMENT!
AS ALWAYS!!
GO RAVENS!!!
This is the first truly challenging prediction of the wildcard weekend. Both the Giants and the Packers have been on an absolute tear as of late, and Eli Manning has won his last two playoff games against the Packers in Green Bay. The questions that remain are whether or not the Giants defense is good enough to stifle Aaron Rodgers this time around and whether or not the Packers have enough defensively to slow down a dangerous stable of Giants receivers.
The Giants and Packers have both played close games against many of the same opponents, but the style of play has been profoundly different. Over the course of their current 6 game winning streak, the Packers have had to rely heavily on their prolific offense to beat opponents. The Packers have averaged 30.83 points per game during that 6-game stretch, and have allowed some teams to keep things close. The Packers only beat the Bears 30-27, and they only beat the Lions 31-24. Those games, however, were played on the road. The Packers defense fared much better in home games during the last 6 weeks. The Packers absolutely dominated the mighty Seahawks 38-10, they made a mockery of the Vikings elite defense 38-25, and they soundly defeated a Texans team that finished the season with the #1 ranked defense in the league 21-13.
The Vikings and Texans have little offense to speak of, and the Seahawks aren't nearly the same team, especially on the road, without Earl Thomas, but it's difficult to deny the fact that Aaron Rodgers has been utterly spectacular during the Packers push for a playoff berth. There was a point in this season where the Packers were thought to have virtually no chance of turning their season around, but Rodgers threw 40 touchdown passes with only 7 interceptions to erased all doubts. Meanwhile, Eli Manning has thrown for significantly fewer touchdowns (26) and over double the interceptions (16) but his defense has helped tremendously as they've won 9 of their last 11 games including victories over the Cowboys, Lions and Ravens. The Giants have been far worse on the road that at home, though, and that could be a major problem today.
The Giants already lost to the Packers in Green Bay earlier this season 23-16. That was the last game before the Giants began their hot streak, but it can't be ignored statistically. The Giants have, in fact, struggled hard against relatively competitive teams on the road. During their current hot streak, the only resounding road win the Giants had was 27-13 over the Browns. Other than that, the Giants narrowly defeated the Redskins 19-10, lost to the Eagles 24-19, and lost to the Steelers 24-14. The rest of their games over the last 11 weeks have been at home where the G-men have fared quite well. There's no question that this is a quality Giants team, but they're not the same road warriors that bullied their way through the playoffs in the 2011-2012 post-season.
The Packers on the other hand, are 6-2 at home this season. They had a rocky first couple of months of the regular season, but they haven't lost in 6 weeks. The Packers' mid-season losses to the Colts and Cowboys had far more to do with defensive injuries than anything else, and Rodgers simply had not yet found any sort of rhythm. Rodgers had little trouble moving the ball at home against the Giants, and as hot as he is right now, it's difficult he'll struggle tonight. I would love to be able to predict a Giants upset here because I dream about them upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowl for a third time, but the Giants teams that achieved those miraculous upsets were literally better on the road than at home for one reason or another. This group hasn't demonstrated that trait.
I thought the Giants stats for this season would give me some kind of hope that they could upset the Packers, but that was only because I hadn't yet examined their road record. This game shouldn't be a blowout as the Giants still play great defense, but I doubt we'll see the Giants offense put on a fireworks display in the coldest stadium in the league...at night. We may have to wait another week for truly competitive playoff football.
PREDICTION:
Eli has shown in the past that he needs only to get INTO the playoffs to make a run, but he hasn't shown enough this season to suggest he can carry his team on the road. The x-factor in 2011 was the return of Osi Umeniyora to bolster the Giants' pass rushing capability just in time for the playoffs, but no such x-factor will be returning today. Aaron Rodgers may not be able to take his team on the road and beat the Cowboys, they could lose to a team such as the Falcons, but today he'll continue his late-season winning streak for one more game.
PACKERS 24-20
WHATEVER HAPPENS, LET'S HOPE FOR SOME EXCITEMENT!
AS ALWAYS!!
GO RAVENS!!!
NFL WILDCARD PREDICTIONS: DOLPHINS AT STEELERS
DOLPHINS AT STEELERS
Analyzing the Steelers from a statistical standpoint has been tricky this season. The same could easily be said of the Dolphins as well. Key injuries for both teams have meant the difference between dominant performances and perplexing losses. With a healthy offensive line, the Dolphins appeared unstoppable as Jay Ajayi rumbled over teams such as the Steelers. With deep threats on the field to compliment Antontio Brown, the Steelers appeared offensively elite as Ben Roethlisberger skillfully distributes the ball to a handful of receivers to open things up for Le'veon Bell on the ground. Without a healthy offensive line for the Dolphins and a healthy receiving corps for the Steelers, however, both teams struggled mightily. The Steelers went on a 4 game losing streak and the Dolphins got absolutely blasted by a Ravens team clicking on all cylinders.
Well now both of these teams are as healthy as they're going to be leading into the wildcard round matchup in Pittsburgh, and the question is which team will be stronger than the other with their current available personnel. In order to determine this, we'll have to examine the personnel of each these teams in their last meeting as compared to what will take the field this weekend. We'll also have to examine how each team has done at home as opposed to on the road this season as the last meeting between these teams took place in a different venue with vastly different physical conditions.
The Steelers are 6-2 at home this season, and the Miami Dolphins went 4-4 on the road. The only home games the Steelers lost were against the two top teams in the league this season, the Patriots and Cowboys. Against the Patriots, the Steelers started Landry Jones in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger and still only lost 27-16. Against the Cowboys, the Steelers lost in arguably the most explosive 4th quarter ending to a game of the season. The Steelers don't have many home losses from which to draw conclusions, and the loss to the Patriots can immediately be dismissed from a statistical standpoint because of the absence of Ben Roethlisberger. The loss to the Cowboys, however, is another story.
The Steelers' loss in Pittsburgh to the Dallas Cowboys demonstrated a fundamental weakness against teams with strong run-blocking offensive lines. To be fair, nearly every team except the Giants has fallen victim to the strength and talent of the Cowboys offensive line, and the Steelers played them as closely as any team in the league outside of New York. The Dolphins, when healthy, have an impressive offensive line of their own. Miami, in fact, hasn't lost a game this season when all five of their starting offensive linemen have been healthy. So will all five of those linemen be healthy today? Well that idea is impossible as starting center Mike Pouncey was placed on injured reserve this season. The Dolphins offensive line is, nevertheless, still mostly healthy. One would think that would point to a big day on the ground for the Dolphins reminiscent of their last matchup wherein Jay Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards. Not so fast.
One key defensive absence from the last meeting between these teams was speedy linebacker Ryan Shazier. Shazier's absence against the Dolphins earlier this season was an absolute game-changer. The biggest knock on Shazier during his career thus far has been his tendency to find himself on the injury report, but his health over the past two months has helped to solidify the Steelers front 7 against the run. One might ask how the Ravens were then able to essentially impose their will on the ground for a handful of drives in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but that had to do with another major injury.
Stephon Tuitt is one of two starting defensive ends for the Steelers that played against the Ravens earlier this season and absolutely shut down Baltimore's running game in the first meeting. Since then, the Steelers lost their other starting defensive end, Cameron Heyward, and they played their second game against the Ravens without Tuitt who suffered from a sprained knee at the time. With two more weeks of rest, Tuitt has been a full participant at practice this week, and his presence will be a big factor in slowing the Dolphins' ground attack.
The Dolphins will be without Ryan Tannehill for the second straight week, but Tannehill's backup, Matt Moore, proved himself more than capable in the Dolphins' overtime win over the Bills in Buffalo on Christmas Eve Day. I actually believe Moore throws a better deep ball than Tannehill, and in that regard he may be better suited to take advantage of a potent array of speedy Dolphins receivers. The Steelers, despite the health of Shazier and Tuitt, will have to commit a lot to stopping Jay Ajayi. Ajayi's incredible burst and tackle-breaking physical running style makes him frustratingly difficult to bring down with only a single tackler. It is for this reason that the Dolphins should be able to put up a productive, balanced offensive attack in Pittsburgh today.
The problem for Miami will be that the Steelers' offensive attack will likely be more effective against a Dolphins' secondary without its top cornerback, Byron Maxwell. The Steelers didn't exactly light up the Ravens for the first three quarters on Christmas Day, but they embarrassed Baltimore with 3 forth quarter touchdowns when running a hurry-up offense. That Baltimore defense, despite it's flaws, was simply better than that of the Dolphins--especially without Byron Maxwell. The Dolphins linebackers struggle in pass coverage, and the tandem of Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh haven't nearly been dominant enough as of late to suggest they can consistently pressure Ben Roethlisberger. Suh had a red-hot start to the season with 5 passes defensed, 6 tackles for a loss, and 2.5 sacks though the first 10 weeks of the season. Through the last 6 games, however, Suh has one pass defenses, 1 tackle for a loss, and another 2.5 sacks. The sack total isn't terrible, but Suh has been far less of an all-around threat. Through Cameron Wake's first 10 weeks he had a whopping 10 sacks, but over the course of his last 6 weeks Wake has totaled only 1.5.
It's possible that both Wake and Suh have simply become worn down by the lengthy season, but the more likely reason behind a drop-off in production from these defenders is a banged up Dolphins secondary. With key members of the secondary absent for roughly the last month and a half of the season, opposing quarterbacks have been able to get rid of the football much quicker and, thus, neutralize the pass rush. The Steelers' offensive line has been vastly improved this season, and Pittsburgh has easily enough receiving/rushing threats to whom Ben can distribute the ball quickly and keep Suh and Wake at bay.
More significant to this game than all other injuries to personnel is the fact that Ben Roethlisberger will be healthy at kickoff. Ben tore his meniscus during the last meeting between these teams and despite the fact that he returned to the game, he was unquestionably hobbled by the injury. If Ben doesn't incur another injury today, the Dolphins will have a tall task stopping him with their defensive personnel. The temperature in Pittsburgh is well below freezing today, and that should make conditions difficult for a Dolphins team that is used to playing in one of the consistently warmest climates in the country.
There would be nothing I'd love more on this cold January Sunday than to be proven totally wrong by the Dolphins, but there's simply too much working against them. The Steelers are coming off of a virtual bye week as they rested their starters last week and still managed to beat the Brows. The Dolphins should be able to move the football, but it's unreasonable to expect them to be able to topple the Steelers in Pittsburgh with a backup quarterback and a banged up secondary. The Steelers have the edge offensively and they have a big advantage defensively. It's simply a bad matchup for Miami.
PREDICTION:
I won't discount the possibility of major injuries in extreme cold weather that could greatly affect the outcome of this game, but there's simply no way to predict them. The Steelers simply appear healthier and better prepared for this matchup. Jay Ajayi should rush for over 100 yards, but he won't rush for 200. Rushing for 200 yards may not even be enough to win this game. The Dolphins would need a major aerial assault on a Steelers secondary that has improved greatly over the course of this season. This is a pick-your-poison situation for the Dolphins. If they commit to stopping Le'veon Bell, Ben will light them up through the air. If they drop everyone back into pass coverage to stop Antonio Brown and company, Le'veon Bell will gash them on the ground.
STEELERS 33-21
STAY TUNED FOR MY SUNDAY NFC PREDICTION!
LET'S HOPE FOR GREAT PLAYOFF FOOTBALL
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
GO GET BETTER SO YOU TOO CAN PARTAKE IN PLAYOFF FOOTBALL...
Analyzing the Steelers from a statistical standpoint has been tricky this season. The same could easily be said of the Dolphins as well. Key injuries for both teams have meant the difference between dominant performances and perplexing losses. With a healthy offensive line, the Dolphins appeared unstoppable as Jay Ajayi rumbled over teams such as the Steelers. With deep threats on the field to compliment Antontio Brown, the Steelers appeared offensively elite as Ben Roethlisberger skillfully distributes the ball to a handful of receivers to open things up for Le'veon Bell on the ground. Without a healthy offensive line for the Dolphins and a healthy receiving corps for the Steelers, however, both teams struggled mightily. The Steelers went on a 4 game losing streak and the Dolphins got absolutely blasted by a Ravens team clicking on all cylinders.
Well now both of these teams are as healthy as they're going to be leading into the wildcard round matchup in Pittsburgh, and the question is which team will be stronger than the other with their current available personnel. In order to determine this, we'll have to examine the personnel of each these teams in their last meeting as compared to what will take the field this weekend. We'll also have to examine how each team has done at home as opposed to on the road this season as the last meeting between these teams took place in a different venue with vastly different physical conditions.
The Steelers are 6-2 at home this season, and the Miami Dolphins went 4-4 on the road. The only home games the Steelers lost were against the two top teams in the league this season, the Patriots and Cowboys. Against the Patriots, the Steelers started Landry Jones in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger and still only lost 27-16. Against the Cowboys, the Steelers lost in arguably the most explosive 4th quarter ending to a game of the season. The Steelers don't have many home losses from which to draw conclusions, and the loss to the Patriots can immediately be dismissed from a statistical standpoint because of the absence of Ben Roethlisberger. The loss to the Cowboys, however, is another story.
The Steelers' loss in Pittsburgh to the Dallas Cowboys demonstrated a fundamental weakness against teams with strong run-blocking offensive lines. To be fair, nearly every team except the Giants has fallen victim to the strength and talent of the Cowboys offensive line, and the Steelers played them as closely as any team in the league outside of New York. The Dolphins, when healthy, have an impressive offensive line of their own. Miami, in fact, hasn't lost a game this season when all five of their starting offensive linemen have been healthy. So will all five of those linemen be healthy today? Well that idea is impossible as starting center Mike Pouncey was placed on injured reserve this season. The Dolphins offensive line is, nevertheless, still mostly healthy. One would think that would point to a big day on the ground for the Dolphins reminiscent of their last matchup wherein Jay Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards. Not so fast.
One key defensive absence from the last meeting between these teams was speedy linebacker Ryan Shazier. Shazier's absence against the Dolphins earlier this season was an absolute game-changer. The biggest knock on Shazier during his career thus far has been his tendency to find himself on the injury report, but his health over the past two months has helped to solidify the Steelers front 7 against the run. One might ask how the Ravens were then able to essentially impose their will on the ground for a handful of drives in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but that had to do with another major injury.
Stephon Tuitt is one of two starting defensive ends for the Steelers that played against the Ravens earlier this season and absolutely shut down Baltimore's running game in the first meeting. Since then, the Steelers lost their other starting defensive end, Cameron Heyward, and they played their second game against the Ravens without Tuitt who suffered from a sprained knee at the time. With two more weeks of rest, Tuitt has been a full participant at practice this week, and his presence will be a big factor in slowing the Dolphins' ground attack.
The Dolphins will be without Ryan Tannehill for the second straight week, but Tannehill's backup, Matt Moore, proved himself more than capable in the Dolphins' overtime win over the Bills in Buffalo on Christmas Eve Day. I actually believe Moore throws a better deep ball than Tannehill, and in that regard he may be better suited to take advantage of a potent array of speedy Dolphins receivers. The Steelers, despite the health of Shazier and Tuitt, will have to commit a lot to stopping Jay Ajayi. Ajayi's incredible burst and tackle-breaking physical running style makes him frustratingly difficult to bring down with only a single tackler. It is for this reason that the Dolphins should be able to put up a productive, balanced offensive attack in Pittsburgh today.
The problem for Miami will be that the Steelers' offensive attack will likely be more effective against a Dolphins' secondary without its top cornerback, Byron Maxwell. The Steelers didn't exactly light up the Ravens for the first three quarters on Christmas Day, but they embarrassed Baltimore with 3 forth quarter touchdowns when running a hurry-up offense. That Baltimore defense, despite it's flaws, was simply better than that of the Dolphins--especially without Byron Maxwell. The Dolphins linebackers struggle in pass coverage, and the tandem of Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh haven't nearly been dominant enough as of late to suggest they can consistently pressure Ben Roethlisberger. Suh had a red-hot start to the season with 5 passes defensed, 6 tackles for a loss, and 2.5 sacks though the first 10 weeks of the season. Through the last 6 games, however, Suh has one pass defenses, 1 tackle for a loss, and another 2.5 sacks. The sack total isn't terrible, but Suh has been far less of an all-around threat. Through Cameron Wake's first 10 weeks he had a whopping 10 sacks, but over the course of his last 6 weeks Wake has totaled only 1.5.
It's possible that both Wake and Suh have simply become worn down by the lengthy season, but the more likely reason behind a drop-off in production from these defenders is a banged up Dolphins secondary. With key members of the secondary absent for roughly the last month and a half of the season, opposing quarterbacks have been able to get rid of the football much quicker and, thus, neutralize the pass rush. The Steelers' offensive line has been vastly improved this season, and Pittsburgh has easily enough receiving/rushing threats to whom Ben can distribute the ball quickly and keep Suh and Wake at bay.
More significant to this game than all other injuries to personnel is the fact that Ben Roethlisberger will be healthy at kickoff. Ben tore his meniscus during the last meeting between these teams and despite the fact that he returned to the game, he was unquestionably hobbled by the injury. If Ben doesn't incur another injury today, the Dolphins will have a tall task stopping him with their defensive personnel. The temperature in Pittsburgh is well below freezing today, and that should make conditions difficult for a Dolphins team that is used to playing in one of the consistently warmest climates in the country.
There would be nothing I'd love more on this cold January Sunday than to be proven totally wrong by the Dolphins, but there's simply too much working against them. The Steelers are coming off of a virtual bye week as they rested their starters last week and still managed to beat the Brows. The Dolphins should be able to move the football, but it's unreasonable to expect them to be able to topple the Steelers in Pittsburgh with a backup quarterback and a banged up secondary. The Steelers have the edge offensively and they have a big advantage defensively. It's simply a bad matchup for Miami.
PREDICTION:
I won't discount the possibility of major injuries in extreme cold weather that could greatly affect the outcome of this game, but there's simply no way to predict them. The Steelers simply appear healthier and better prepared for this matchup. Jay Ajayi should rush for over 100 yards, but he won't rush for 200. Rushing for 200 yards may not even be enough to win this game. The Dolphins would need a major aerial assault on a Steelers secondary that has improved greatly over the course of this season. This is a pick-your-poison situation for the Dolphins. If they commit to stopping Le'veon Bell, Ben will light them up through the air. If they drop everyone back into pass coverage to stop Antonio Brown and company, Le'veon Bell will gash them on the ground.
STEELERS 33-21
STAY TUNED FOR MY SUNDAY NFC PREDICTION!
LET'S HOPE FOR GREAT PLAYOFF FOOTBALL
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
GO GET BETTER SO YOU TOO CAN PARTAKE IN PLAYOFF FOOTBALL...
Saturday, January 7, 2017
NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS: SATURDAY GAMES
RAIDERS AT TEXANS
Seldom do we see a 9-7 team secure homefield advantage over a team that finished the season 12-4. The Houston Texans won their division and, therefore, finished with a higher playoff seed than a Raiders team that was ultimately edged by the Chiefs for the AFC West division crown. A strong case could be made that final regular season record, not a divisional crown, should be the sole decider in playoff seeding, but that's simply how the system works right now.
To add insult to literally injury for the Raiders, Oakland's starting quarterback, Derek Carr, broke his leg and will not suit up for the playoffs. Carr should have been in top contention for the league MVP award given his fantastic performance this season coupled with the incredible drop-off in performance his team experienced in his absence last week against a Broncos team that the Raiders previously soundly defeated 30-20 with Carr at the helm. Carr's replacement, Connor Cook, had never started a single NFL game prior to last week. The Raiders, as a matter of fact, lost to the Broncos 24-6 in a game that WOULD have given Oakland the division crown had they won.
One has but to look at Cook's performance last week to see the profound drop-off the Raider's offense experiences in Carr's absence. Connor Cook finished with 150 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Derek Carr, by contrast, averaged 262 passing yards per game over the course of the season, and he led his offense to a top 10 ranking in both yardage and points scored. Let's be clear though about one point though: the Raiders didn't simply lose because Connor Cook isn't great. The Raiders were blown out because the Raiders have little defense to speak of beyond Khalil Mack, and because they can't lean on any sort of running game without Carr to spread defenses out with his receivers. Carr, in fact, may have been able to make a much better case for MVP in the minds of those voting for the award if his defense had been slightly better in order to give him more possessions and offensive opportunities per game. Sadly for Oakland, the Raiders run defense ranked 23rd in the league and their pass defense ranked 24th. Oakland's defense, ironically, benefitted heavily from their offense's success in that it helped to keep them off the field. The Raiders defense could have easily been ranked much lower if it weren't for Derek Carr's talent and execution.
The Houston Texans aren't exactly in love with their starting quarterback. Brock Osweiler has been nothing short of a disappointment in the 2016 season and has nowhere NEAR justified his $72 million payday. The Texans, however, finished the season with the highest rated defense in the league in terms of average yards allowed per game and 11th in the league in points allowed per game. That defensive ranking is made all the more impressive by the fact that the Texans offense finished the season 29th in the NFL in yards per game and 28th in points scored. The Texans did excel in one particular offensive area; they ran the football quite well. Houston finished ranked 8th in rushing yards per game this season, and their ability to both run the football and play hard-nosed defense should help them just as much as their homefield advantage in this game.
Oakland finished the season with an even higher ranked rushing offense than Houston. The Raiders averaged roughly 9 more yards per game than the Texans, but much of that had to do with the Raiders' aforementioned ability to spread out opposing defenses with their aerial attack and open things up for the run. Without Carr last week, the Raiders were only able to rush for 57 yards against Denver. When the Raiders faced the Broncos earlier this season with Derek Carr leading the charge, Oakland rushed for a whopping 218 yards. Even when Carr doesn't throw for incredible yardage, his mobility and his effectiveness as a passer creates far more opportunities for his team's rushing attack.
This is a rather disappointing matchup for the playoffs. The Raiders' reliance on a currently injured quarterback means almost certain victory for the Texans, but the Texans have little chance to advance beyond a win this week. The AFC playoff field features at least 2-3 teams that have little to no shot of unseating the Patriots in Foxborough, and won't exactly help the NFL in a season where ratings have been uncharacteristically low for one reason or another. Let's hope the NFC offers a decent deal more excitement.
PREDICTION:
The Raiders will struggle to move the ball consistently against one of the top defenses in the league. Oakland only barely edged Houston in the last meeting between these teams, and that was with a healthy Derek Carr. Expect the Texans to lean on their rushing attack, and expect a decent performance from DeAndre Hopkins.
TEXANS 23-13
LIONS AT SEAHAWKS
Now THIS is a far more difficult matchup to predict. The Lions made the playoffs at 9-7, but they both started and ended the season on three-game losing streaks. Meanwhile the Seahawks defense simply hasn't been the same since all-pro safety Earl Thomas went on injured reserve several weeks ago as was evidenced by the fact that Seattle only barely beat the bottom-feeding 49ers 25-23 in the final week of the regular season.
In order to correctly predict this game we must discard all irrelevant statistical information. For the Seahwaks, that means determining exactly what kind of a drop-off the Seahawks defense experienced with the loss of Earl Thomas, and then it may possibly mean totally ignoring defensive statistics from all the games in which he played this season. Earl Thomas played in 11 of the first 12 games of the season, and during that time the Seahawks went 8-2-1. Thomas himself collected 48 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 10 passes defensed. Thomas missed games late in the season against the Buccaneers, Packers, Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers, and the Seahawks went 2-3 in those games. More troubling was how poorly the Seahawks defense performed without Earl Thomas in games against foes they had already handled easily in earlier games.
The Seahawks beat the 49ers resoundingly 37-18 early in the season, but barely squeaked by San Francisco 25-23 last week. In last week's game, the 49ers actually edged the Seahawks in time of possession by roughly one minute, and they converted on 4th down in two of their 3 attempts. The 49ers were successful in scoring in all three of their trips into the redzone, and kept the game incredibly close despite turning the ball over twice. In Earl Thomas' absence, a nearly useless Colin Kaepernick threw for 215 passing yards. With Earl Thomas present earlier in the season, the 49ers were held to 119 passing yards and the Seahawks dominated the time of possession by roughly 11 minutes--and that was even after Russell Wilson exited the game with an injury.
The more profound and telling contrast between Earl Thomas' presence and absence can be seen in the Seahawks' two games against the Cardinals this season. Thomas was present for the Seahawks' 6-6 overtime tie in Arizona in the middle of the season. With Thomas patrolling the defensive backfield, Carson Palmer was held entirely out of the endzone. Without Thomas, however, things were quite different. The Seahawks lost to the Cardinals a startling 34-31 after the Seahawks lost their starting free safety. Not only did the Seahawks lose their first home game of the season, but Earl Thomas' absence allowed the Cardinals to put up 17 passing first downs and 20 forth quarter points. The Cardinals also dominated time of possession by roughly 7 minutes, and outscored the Seahawks 14-3 in the first half of the game.
Earl Thomas' presence both helps take away opposing receiving threats and gives Seahawks pass rushers more opportunity to get to opposing quarterbacks. With Thomas the Seahawks sacked Carson Palmer 4 times and pressured him heavily all game. Without Thomas, the Seahawks only sacked Carson Palmer once. Without their star safety, the Seahawks had to commit more manpower from their linebacker corps to try to stop the Cardinals passing attack, but in doing so the Seahawks gave up much of their ability to stop the Cardinals on the ground and they allowed three rushing touchdowns. Mind you--all of this happened at home--in Seattle.
Now the Lions haven't exactly been road warriors. Their only road victories came against the Colts, Vikings, and Saints, and all three of those teams have struggled this season. One might say a 3-5 road record would spell doom for a team heading into Seattle in the playoffs, but let's not forget for one second assume that this game will be a rout without arguably the most important member of the legion of boom missing. The Seahawks are 7-1 at home on the year, but their only home loss came since Earl Thomas' season-ending injury. The Lions also performed better against a common opponent recently. Detroit lost 31-24 in a tight game against the Packers to finish the regular season. The Seahawks, on the other hand, were blown out by the Packers 38-10 only one month ago.
The Lions haven't exactly had an easy schedule to finish their season. They faced the Packers, Giants, and Cowboys, and those are literally the hottest teams in the NFC and arguably the league. Neither the Seahawks nor the Lions are strong enough to go on the road and beat the Giants, Cowboys, or Packers, but this should actually prove a fairly evenly matched game. Seattle and Detroit have averaged almost exactly the same number of points per game this season, and neither team has played particularly impressive defense as of late.
PREDICTIONS:
Seattle's defense isn't nearly the same as it was for most of the regular season without Earl Thomas, but Russell Wilson should be able to put together some critical drives to put this game away. The biggest weakness the of the Lions will be their dome team identity. Two of the Lions three road wins this season were inside dome stadiums. There are few harsher outdoor road venues than Seattle in the playoffs.
SEATTLE 27-23
Most Ravens fans feel justifiably deflated after a 4th quarter collapse on Christmas Day to the Steelers, but no one should feel particularly upset about losing to the Bengals last week. It's understandable that many felt the Ravens should give Steve Smith Sr. one last triumphant win for his career, but it's more important for the team that the highest draft position is attained. The only way the Ravens will make it back to the playoffs is an incredibly strong draft position as they organization only has so much maneuvering they can achieve through free agency because of a relatively tight salary cap situation. Corner, offensive line, wide receiver, and pass rusher need to be the major points of emphasis in the draft. With the 16th spot, the Ravens will hopefully be able address most of those needs and fill any other gaps with reasonably priced veteran free agents. This team is, despite what many think, trending in the right direction, but they need a strong draft, and losing to the Bengals was the best way to ensure that.
LET'S HOPE THE PLAYOFFS ARE EXCITING!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!! (GO GET SOME CORNERS!!)
Seldom do we see a 9-7 team secure homefield advantage over a team that finished the season 12-4. The Houston Texans won their division and, therefore, finished with a higher playoff seed than a Raiders team that was ultimately edged by the Chiefs for the AFC West division crown. A strong case could be made that final regular season record, not a divisional crown, should be the sole decider in playoff seeding, but that's simply how the system works right now.
To add insult to literally injury for the Raiders, Oakland's starting quarterback, Derek Carr, broke his leg and will not suit up for the playoffs. Carr should have been in top contention for the league MVP award given his fantastic performance this season coupled with the incredible drop-off in performance his team experienced in his absence last week against a Broncos team that the Raiders previously soundly defeated 30-20 with Carr at the helm. Carr's replacement, Connor Cook, had never started a single NFL game prior to last week. The Raiders, as a matter of fact, lost to the Broncos 24-6 in a game that WOULD have given Oakland the division crown had they won.
One has but to look at Cook's performance last week to see the profound drop-off the Raider's offense experiences in Carr's absence. Connor Cook finished with 150 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Derek Carr, by contrast, averaged 262 passing yards per game over the course of the season, and he led his offense to a top 10 ranking in both yardage and points scored. Let's be clear though about one point though: the Raiders didn't simply lose because Connor Cook isn't great. The Raiders were blown out because the Raiders have little defense to speak of beyond Khalil Mack, and because they can't lean on any sort of running game without Carr to spread defenses out with his receivers. Carr, in fact, may have been able to make a much better case for MVP in the minds of those voting for the award if his defense had been slightly better in order to give him more possessions and offensive opportunities per game. Sadly for Oakland, the Raiders run defense ranked 23rd in the league and their pass defense ranked 24th. Oakland's defense, ironically, benefitted heavily from their offense's success in that it helped to keep them off the field. The Raiders defense could have easily been ranked much lower if it weren't for Derek Carr's talent and execution.
The Houston Texans aren't exactly in love with their starting quarterback. Brock Osweiler has been nothing short of a disappointment in the 2016 season and has nowhere NEAR justified his $72 million payday. The Texans, however, finished the season with the highest rated defense in the league in terms of average yards allowed per game and 11th in the league in points allowed per game. That defensive ranking is made all the more impressive by the fact that the Texans offense finished the season 29th in the NFL in yards per game and 28th in points scored. The Texans did excel in one particular offensive area; they ran the football quite well. Houston finished ranked 8th in rushing yards per game this season, and their ability to both run the football and play hard-nosed defense should help them just as much as their homefield advantage in this game.
Oakland finished the season with an even higher ranked rushing offense than Houston. The Raiders averaged roughly 9 more yards per game than the Texans, but much of that had to do with the Raiders' aforementioned ability to spread out opposing defenses with their aerial attack and open things up for the run. Without Carr last week, the Raiders were only able to rush for 57 yards against Denver. When the Raiders faced the Broncos earlier this season with Derek Carr leading the charge, Oakland rushed for a whopping 218 yards. Even when Carr doesn't throw for incredible yardage, his mobility and his effectiveness as a passer creates far more opportunities for his team's rushing attack.
This is a rather disappointing matchup for the playoffs. The Raiders' reliance on a currently injured quarterback means almost certain victory for the Texans, but the Texans have little chance to advance beyond a win this week. The AFC playoff field features at least 2-3 teams that have little to no shot of unseating the Patriots in Foxborough, and won't exactly help the NFL in a season where ratings have been uncharacteristically low for one reason or another. Let's hope the NFC offers a decent deal more excitement.
PREDICTION:
The Raiders will struggle to move the ball consistently against one of the top defenses in the league. Oakland only barely edged Houston in the last meeting between these teams, and that was with a healthy Derek Carr. Expect the Texans to lean on their rushing attack, and expect a decent performance from DeAndre Hopkins.
TEXANS 23-13
LIONS AT SEAHAWKS
Now THIS is a far more difficult matchup to predict. The Lions made the playoffs at 9-7, but they both started and ended the season on three-game losing streaks. Meanwhile the Seahawks defense simply hasn't been the same since all-pro safety Earl Thomas went on injured reserve several weeks ago as was evidenced by the fact that Seattle only barely beat the bottom-feeding 49ers 25-23 in the final week of the regular season.
In order to correctly predict this game we must discard all irrelevant statistical information. For the Seahwaks, that means determining exactly what kind of a drop-off the Seahawks defense experienced with the loss of Earl Thomas, and then it may possibly mean totally ignoring defensive statistics from all the games in which he played this season. Earl Thomas played in 11 of the first 12 games of the season, and during that time the Seahawks went 8-2-1. Thomas himself collected 48 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 10 passes defensed. Thomas missed games late in the season against the Buccaneers, Packers, Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers, and the Seahawks went 2-3 in those games. More troubling was how poorly the Seahawks defense performed without Earl Thomas in games against foes they had already handled easily in earlier games.
The Seahawks beat the 49ers resoundingly 37-18 early in the season, but barely squeaked by San Francisco 25-23 last week. In last week's game, the 49ers actually edged the Seahawks in time of possession by roughly one minute, and they converted on 4th down in two of their 3 attempts. The 49ers were successful in scoring in all three of their trips into the redzone, and kept the game incredibly close despite turning the ball over twice. In Earl Thomas' absence, a nearly useless Colin Kaepernick threw for 215 passing yards. With Earl Thomas present earlier in the season, the 49ers were held to 119 passing yards and the Seahawks dominated the time of possession by roughly 11 minutes--and that was even after Russell Wilson exited the game with an injury.
The more profound and telling contrast between Earl Thomas' presence and absence can be seen in the Seahawks' two games against the Cardinals this season. Thomas was present for the Seahawks' 6-6 overtime tie in Arizona in the middle of the season. With Thomas patrolling the defensive backfield, Carson Palmer was held entirely out of the endzone. Without Thomas, however, things were quite different. The Seahawks lost to the Cardinals a startling 34-31 after the Seahawks lost their starting free safety. Not only did the Seahawks lose their first home game of the season, but Earl Thomas' absence allowed the Cardinals to put up 17 passing first downs and 20 forth quarter points. The Cardinals also dominated time of possession by roughly 7 minutes, and outscored the Seahawks 14-3 in the first half of the game.
Earl Thomas' presence both helps take away opposing receiving threats and gives Seahawks pass rushers more opportunity to get to opposing quarterbacks. With Thomas the Seahawks sacked Carson Palmer 4 times and pressured him heavily all game. Without Thomas, the Seahawks only sacked Carson Palmer once. Without their star safety, the Seahawks had to commit more manpower from their linebacker corps to try to stop the Cardinals passing attack, but in doing so the Seahawks gave up much of their ability to stop the Cardinals on the ground and they allowed three rushing touchdowns. Mind you--all of this happened at home--in Seattle.
Now the Lions haven't exactly been road warriors. Their only road victories came against the Colts, Vikings, and Saints, and all three of those teams have struggled this season. One might say a 3-5 road record would spell doom for a team heading into Seattle in the playoffs, but let's not forget for one second assume that this game will be a rout without arguably the most important member of the legion of boom missing. The Seahawks are 7-1 at home on the year, but their only home loss came since Earl Thomas' season-ending injury. The Lions also performed better against a common opponent recently. Detroit lost 31-24 in a tight game against the Packers to finish the regular season. The Seahawks, on the other hand, were blown out by the Packers 38-10 only one month ago.
The Lions haven't exactly had an easy schedule to finish their season. They faced the Packers, Giants, and Cowboys, and those are literally the hottest teams in the NFC and arguably the league. Neither the Seahawks nor the Lions are strong enough to go on the road and beat the Giants, Cowboys, or Packers, but this should actually prove a fairly evenly matched game. Seattle and Detroit have averaged almost exactly the same number of points per game this season, and neither team has played particularly impressive defense as of late.
PREDICTIONS:
Seattle's defense isn't nearly the same as it was for most of the regular season without Earl Thomas, but Russell Wilson should be able to put together some critical drives to put this game away. The biggest weakness the of the Lions will be their dome team identity. Two of the Lions three road wins this season were inside dome stadiums. There are few harsher outdoor road venues than Seattle in the playoffs.
SEATTLE 27-23
Most Ravens fans feel justifiably deflated after a 4th quarter collapse on Christmas Day to the Steelers, but no one should feel particularly upset about losing to the Bengals last week. It's understandable that many felt the Ravens should give Steve Smith Sr. one last triumphant win for his career, but it's more important for the team that the highest draft position is attained. The only way the Ravens will make it back to the playoffs is an incredibly strong draft position as they organization only has so much maneuvering they can achieve through free agency because of a relatively tight salary cap situation. Corner, offensive line, wide receiver, and pass rusher need to be the major points of emphasis in the draft. With the 16th spot, the Ravens will hopefully be able address most of those needs and fill any other gaps with reasonably priced veteran free agents. This team is, despite what many think, trending in the right direction, but they need a strong draft, and losing to the Bengals was the best way to ensure that.
LET'S HOPE THE PLAYOFFS ARE EXCITING!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!! (GO GET SOME CORNERS!!)
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