The Pittsburgh Steelers have appeared explosive and dominant at times during every season during this decade. With only 3 playoff wins in the last 6 seasons, the Steelers dominance hasn't proved nearly consistent enough to yield the post-season success they enjoyed from 2005-2010, but this season could totally change that trend.
There's no denying the offensive talent level of the Steelers. An improved offensive line has allowed Le'veon Bell, Antonio Brown to put up monster yardage and score quickly and frequently. Even lesser known players such as Eli Rogers have shown their ability to greatly impact games at times as a part of a potent array of weapons for Ben Roethlisberger. The problem isn't a lack of big name playmakers; it's a perplexing drop-off in performance when on the road.
The Steelers didn't find the endzone once against the Chiefs last weekend in their narrow win at Arrowhead Stadium. I predicted that homefield advantage for the Chiefs wouldn't be able to totally turn the tables against a Steelers team that beat them in Pittsburgh 43-14 earlier in the regular season, but I also didn't think the Steelers would only win by an incredibly narrow margin.
In order to accurately predict tonight's Steelers-Patriots matchup, we must examine what exactly makes the Steelers so much worse on the road and determine if the potential return of Ladarius Green could help Pittsburgh overcome their road issues. We must examine exactly how the Patriots have played at home this season, and we can even take a look at the last time these two teams met in the regular season (note: Ben Roethlisberger did not play in that game, so any analysis will strictly pertain to how the Patriots attacked the Steelers defense).
As a matter of record, Mike Tomlin's Steelers have not fared well against Tom Brady. Brady is 5-1 against Tomlin-led Steelers teams, and he has thrown 19 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in those 6 games (I guess old Troy didn't scare Tom like Ed did). Brady's 91.1 quarterback rating is the highest rating against any coach in the league with a minimum of 3 games played. I generally don't like to predict anything based on records from past years and previous teams, but that certainly is telling.
After calculating the road scoring differential for the Steelers this season, I've come to a surprising realization: the Steelers allowed just barely more points (actually the differential is 23.66 scored versus 23.88 allowed) than they scored on the road this season. Yes, they won road games, but not against most of the good or even some of the mid-level teams. The Dolphins, Ravens, and Eagles all put up big point totals on the Steelers defense away from Pittsburgh, and the Steelers really only made up ground in the road scoring differential department against the Colts without Andrew Luck, the Browns, and a strong season opener against a Redskins team that had not yet found its footing. Struggling teams such as the Bills and Bengals only lost narrowly to Big Ben and company.
The question remains as to what exactly is it that makes this Steelers team look so incredibly dominant against the Miami Dolphins at home, and then barely escape Kansas City the next week by two points. The answer isn't so clear or simple. Much of the Steelers' road problems came as the result of injured offensive personnel. Big Ben's injury undoubtedly played a part in the road loss to the Ravens as well as the road loss to the Dolphins, and the lengthy absences of Sammie Coates and Ladarius Green stripped the Steelers of deep threats to take pressure off of Antonio Brown for a significant portion of the regular season. Ladarius Green, as a matter of fact, practiced Friday in limited capacity, but he has been in concussion protocol for nearly a month and recently suffered from illness to boot.
I think it's safe to expect that Ladarius Green will take the field if at all humanly possible today, but he and the Steelers offense will have the tall task of keeping up with a Patriots offense that has shown the ability to function quite well even without Rob Gronkowski this season. Gronkowski's season-ending occurred on a massive hit to the midsection during the home loss to the Seahawks. It took a few weeks of struggling for doctors to fully conclude that Gronk's season needed to end after discovering a significant spinal injury, so we'll example how the Patriots have done at home in their biggest weapon's absence.
Rob Gronkowski existed for the last time in the Patriots narrow win over the Jets on November 27th. After that point, the Patriots went 4-0 at home, including last week's 34-13 defeat of the Texans, and they allowed a mere 12.25 points per game while scoring an average of 32.75 points per game with two 30 or more point performances against two of the league's top defenses. Part of the reason the Patriots haven't skipped a beat is their renewed defensive might which has ranked first in the NFL in points allowed this season. The Patriots have allowed 15.6 points per game in 2016, and that's even after trading their best pass rusher, Jamie Collins. The Patriots have a disciplined defense that swarms to the football and appears extremely familiarized with the tendencies of its opponent. I have little doubt that the Steelers will be able to move the ball on the Patriots, but Patriots defense could prove even more difficult than that of the Chiefs, and no one beats the Patriots without getting into the endzone.
PREDICTION:
I had originally hoped that something about the statistics would lead me to believe I could predict an upset here. For the record, I always hope that the Steelers lose, and I'm absolutely no fan of the Patriots. I, however, hoped that I'd find evidence that I should predict a Steelers win and then I'd have at least some reason to be happy that my prediction was incorrect. In good conscience, I simply can't do that. Nothing about the Steelers' road record this season against quality teams and quality defenses suggests they can outscore the Patriots in Foxborough. The Patriots put up 27 points in Pittsburgh, and while Ben didn't play in that game, it demonstrates that the Steelers defense has no sort of grasp on the Patriots offense. The best Steelers can hope for is a monumental shootout performance where Roethlisberger comes out on top, but that kind of scenario seems unlikely considering the illnesses plaguing the Steelers locker room and even some dirty tricks by Patriots fans to deprive the Steelers players of restful sleep the night before the big game. Tom Brady has never been picked off by a Tomlin-led Steelers team, and he has recently acquired deep threat Michael Floyd to serve at the very least as a speedy, big-bodied decoy to help open things up for Martellus Bennett, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, Dion Lewis, and LaGarrette Blount.
PATRIOTS 31-24
LETS HOPE FOR GREAT PLAYOFF FOOTBALL TODAY IN BOTH GAMES. IT'S NOT NEARLY AS FUN WITH THE RAVENS NOT INVOLVED, BUT TRUE FOOTBALL FANS MUST APPRECIATE THE INCREDIBLE COLLECTION OF TALENT AMASSED AT THE QUARTERBACK POSITION ON THIS CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY. ONLY TWO TEAMS WILL BE LEFT STANDING LATER TONIGHT AND THEN IT'S TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE SUPER BOWL!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!
No comments:
Post a Comment