GIANTS AT PACKERS
This is the first truly challenging prediction of the wildcard weekend. Both the Giants and the Packers have been on an absolute tear as of late, and Eli Manning has won his last two playoff games against the Packers in Green Bay. The questions that remain are whether or not the Giants defense is good enough to stifle Aaron Rodgers this time around and whether or not the Packers have enough defensively to slow down a dangerous stable of Giants receivers.
The Giants and Packers have both played close games against many of the same opponents, but the style of play has been profoundly different. Over the course of their current 6 game winning streak, the Packers have had to rely heavily on their prolific offense to beat opponents. The Packers have averaged 30.83 points per game during that 6-game stretch, and have allowed some teams to keep things close. The Packers only beat the Bears 30-27, and they only beat the Lions 31-24. Those games, however, were played on the road. The Packers defense fared much better in home games during the last 6 weeks. The Packers absolutely dominated the mighty Seahawks 38-10, they made a mockery of the Vikings elite defense 38-25, and they soundly defeated a Texans team that finished the season with the #1 ranked defense in the league 21-13.
The Vikings and Texans have little offense to speak of, and the Seahawks aren't nearly the same team, especially on the road, without Earl Thomas, but it's difficult to deny the fact that Aaron Rodgers has been utterly spectacular during the Packers push for a playoff berth. There was a point in this season where the Packers were thought to have virtually no chance of turning their season around, but Rodgers threw 40 touchdown passes with only 7 interceptions to erased all doubts. Meanwhile, Eli Manning has thrown for significantly fewer touchdowns (26) and over double the interceptions (16) but his defense has helped tremendously as they've won 9 of their last 11 games including victories over the Cowboys, Lions and Ravens. The Giants have been far worse on the road that at home, though, and that could be a major problem today.
The Giants already lost to the Packers in Green Bay earlier this season 23-16. That was the last game before the Giants began their hot streak, but it can't be ignored statistically. The Giants have, in fact, struggled hard against relatively competitive teams on the road. During their current hot streak, the only resounding road win the Giants had was 27-13 over the Browns. Other than that, the Giants narrowly defeated the Redskins 19-10, lost to the Eagles 24-19, and lost to the Steelers 24-14. The rest of their games over the last 11 weeks have been at home where the G-men have fared quite well. There's no question that this is a quality Giants team, but they're not the same road warriors that bullied their way through the playoffs in the 2011-2012 post-season.
The Packers on the other hand, are 6-2 at home this season. They had a rocky first couple of months of the regular season, but they haven't lost in 6 weeks. The Packers' mid-season losses to the Colts and Cowboys had far more to do with defensive injuries than anything else, and Rodgers simply had not yet found any sort of rhythm. Rodgers had little trouble moving the ball at home against the Giants, and as hot as he is right now, it's difficult he'll struggle tonight. I would love to be able to predict a Giants upset here because I dream about them upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowl for a third time, but the Giants teams that achieved those miraculous upsets were literally better on the road than at home for one reason or another. This group hasn't demonstrated that trait.
I thought the Giants stats for this season would give me some kind of hope that they could upset the Packers, but that was only because I hadn't yet examined their road record. This game shouldn't be a blowout as the Giants still play great defense, but I doubt we'll see the Giants offense put on a fireworks display in the coldest stadium in the league...at night. We may have to wait another week for truly competitive playoff football.
PREDICTION:
Eli has shown in the past that he needs only to get INTO the playoffs to make a run, but he hasn't shown enough this season to suggest he can carry his team on the road. The x-factor in 2011 was the return of Osi Umeniyora to bolster the Giants' pass rushing capability just in time for the playoffs, but no such x-factor will be returning today. Aaron Rodgers may not be able to take his team on the road and beat the Cowboys, they could lose to a team such as the Falcons, but today he'll continue his late-season winning streak for one more game.
PACKERS 24-20
WHATEVER HAPPENS, LET'S HOPE FOR SOME EXCITEMENT!
AS ALWAYS!!
GO RAVENS!!!
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