If Marshal Yanda retired today, he would undoubtedly go down as one of the most dominant Ravens at his particular position along with the likes of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Jonathan Ogden. Yanda's ferocious power and incredible motor have allowed him to dominate virtually anyone who has dared to line up in front of him or even 5 yards away from him over the last decade. Yanda played through a significant shoulder injury last year and even switched positions just so he could stay on the field. Last Sunday big number 73 seemed to get his leg tangled up in a pile at the end of a play and then called for the training staff. After a minute of being tended to by the Ravens medical staff, Yanda got up and shook off any assistance as he insisted on walking himself back to the sideline. It was at that point that many, including myself, must have assumed Yanda simply twisted his ankle or something of that nature and would likely be back on the field shortly.
If only Yanda's insistence on walking off the field without help truly meant he was fine. After the game John Harbaugh announced that his all-pro guard would need season ending surgery on his ankle. Fortunately for the Ravens, Ozzie Newsome had recently stocked up on guards for just such an event. Ozzie ironically traded for and signed backup guards more as insurance in case James Hurst failed to perform well on the left side. Hurst, despite being responsible for Joe Flacco's torn ACL in 2015, has actually been a part of an offensive line that has ranked 4th in the league thus far. Tony Bergstrom, Yanda's replacement in the second half of last week's game against the Browns, actually performed admirably down the stretch after a bit of a rocky start. The Ravens ran the ball 67 yards with Yanda on the field last week, and oddly enough, they ran the ball for 69 yards after he was forced to leave the game.
That isn't to say the Ravens are somehow better or even the same with Yanda on the field, but it at least means that their productivity doesn't fall sharply off of a cliff. Part of the Ravens' ability to continue to move the football on the ground without their top offensive lineman stems from an impressive new set of plays and formations that have been the result of a meeting of the minds between Greg Roman and Marty Mornhinweg. Mornhinweg wasn't necessarily a fan favorite last year, but I made note that the offensive production increased sharply in the second half of the season after he took over for Marc Trestman. The issue was that Mornhinweg was still operating Trestman's offense last year. This year we're seeing what Marty has been able to draw up, and it has fit the Ravens' personnel astoundingly well.
Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, and to a lesser extend Jeremy Maclin probably aren't thrilled with their roles thus far in the Ravens offense. Maclin has had one touchdown in each game, but Wallace and Perriman have been scarcely used. That does not, however, mean that they won't be utilized heavily going forward. In fact, if Flacco isn't throwing much to his wide receivers, it likely means the Ravens are playing with a lead. Baltimore's newfound ability to impose their will on the ground has meant far less passing, particularly in the second half of games. The use of tight ends has been so creative an efficient that it has helped to add extra protection for Joe, open up running lanes, and take advantage of wide open space over the middle of the field off of play action fakes. This is exactly what the Ravens need right now with the loss of an all-pro offensive linemen and a quarterback still slowly returning to form after being sidelined with a back injury during pre-season.
Just as impressive as the Ravens use of 2 and 3 tight end sets has been the fact that they've become the 3rd ranked rushing offense in the league without a top tier running back. Terrence West, Bush Allen, and newly acquired Alex Collins would be backups on most other teams, but they've come together to form a three-headed monster. Buck Allen leads the trio with only 137 rushing yards thus far--nothing spectacular. Combine that number with the rushing totals of his teammates, however, and you get a thunderous 293 yards in only two games. It helps that each of these backs has a different running style and different strengths, but it also helps that they've been put in situations to be successful. Alex Collins flashed serious speed, elusiveness, and burst last week, and despite his unfortunate fumble after what would have been an impressive spin move, he actually looks the most explosive of the three. Collins appeared dead to rites on three separate plays, but his incredible lateral movement allowed him to evade defenders and gain positive yardage in situations where many backs would have been tackled yards behind the line of scrimmage. While watching him break for a long run, it was tough not to imagine him emerging as the starter over the next month.
The rushing attack isn't the only elite part of the Ravens thus far. It's no secret that the defense has gotten off to a dominant start with 10 turnovers and only 10 total points allowed thus far this season. That isn't to say that they have totally suffocated offenses as the Browns moved the ball more than Ravens defenders would have preferred last week. Baltimore's defense, nevertheless, found ways to make impact plays and capitalize off of their opponents' mistakes. After all, when a team averages 5 turnovers per game, it's no sort of accident or blind luck. Just how good this Ravens defense is will be tested and potentially proven over the next 3 weeks. A week from Sunday the Ravens face the vaunted Steelers offense in Baltimore, and the week after that they head out to California to face an explosive Raiders offense. Before all of that, the Ravens will have to face an impressive young Jaguars running back, Leonard Fournette, and they'll have to face him without Brandon Williams.
It's difficult to imagine the Ravens losing a game to a team that is undeniably worse on paper. Sure, the Jaguars beat down the Texans in an incredibly sloppy, mistake laden matchup, but they were dominated a week later by the Titans...who were defeated at home the week before by the Raiders. Beating up on a Texans team that couldn't stop turning the ball over simply isn't predictive of success against a Ravens team that makes far fewer mistakes. I read that the Ravens could struggle to throw the football against the Jaguars' cornerback tandem, but Jalen Ramsey did not practice on Thursday and was only a limited participant on Friday's practice in England. In addition, the Ravens haven't relied much on their wide receivers thus far, and the Jags will likely have to do everything in their power just to stop the Ravens running game and tight ends. The Ravens also have three starting receivers with elite speed, so the idea that a pair of shutdown corners will stifle Baltimore's offense means on of the three could potentially abuse whichever poor soul finds himself lined up against Jeremy Maclin in the slot.
Another great matchup to watch will be Terrell Suggs against the young offensive tackle Cam Robinson. Robinson has been a limited participant in practice all week with a shoulder injury, and that can't be good with #55 playing as well as literally any point in his career. Suggs already has 3 sacks, two forced fumbles, and a pass defensed over the course of only two games. Pittsburgh fans marvel over James Harrison's ability to play admirably despite his advanced age, but Suggs is absolutely dominating and he turns 35 next month. Unfortunately for Blake Bortles, Terrell Suggs had 2 sacks including one that helped to seal a Ravens victory when these two teams faced on another last year. I fully expect to see another pair on Sunday and some ruthless hits from a good number of the Ravens pass rushers.
Blake Bortles has been bad enough already WITHOUT the threat of a ferocious Ravens pass rush and opportunistic Ravens secondary. Bortles has earned a disappointing QBR of 26 so far this season. He has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns (2), fumbled the football once, and his 56% completion isn't exactly elite. I heard while watching television that the Jaguars' offense is built around Leonard Fournette. Fournette is a serious talent, but the Ravens bottled up Joe Mixon who is, in my humble opinion, even more talented and elusive of a big back than Fournette. Even without Brandon Williams, the Ravens have more than enough talent in their defensive front 7 to limit Fournette on the ground and force Bortles into 3rd and long situations wherein Suggs and company will be able to pin their ears back and get after a lackluster quarterback. Allen Hurns is a talented receiver, but the Ravens held A.J. Green well under 100 yards, and he's far better than Hurns.
This isn't a game I see the Ravens losing, but it's also not a game they can take lightly--nor should they with any game. No team should ever overlook any team on its schedule, but the true test will come next week as the Ravens will have to deal with flying back to the United States before facing a Steelers team that appears to be finding a rhythm now that Martavis Bryant has begun to regain his form from two years ago. The week after that the Ravens will travel to the west coast to face the Raiders' vaunted offense. If the Ravens can win at least two out of their next three games, it will be safe to say that their defense is legitimately strong and their dominant performances in the first two weeks were not just a product of the low level of competition they faced within the first two weeks of this season.
It doesn't appear as though there are a ton of titanic matchups this week in the NFL, but there are at least a couple of games worth your attention aside, of course, of the Ravens game. There will also undoubtedly be an upset or two as we're still learning the true strength level of each team. Let's take a look at this week's predictions!
THE PICKS
BRONCOS AT BILLS- Trevor Siemian has had a sensational start to the season with 6 touchdowns passes in his first two games. The Bills were good enough to beat the Jets, but the Jets are also the NFL's only team that threw in the towel before the season already began (cuz even the Browns are at least trying to field a quality team). Defense typically travels well and this Broncos defense was good enough to limit the Cowboys--it'll be good enough to limit the Bills too. BRONCOS 31-20
STEELERS AT BEARS- The Bears played the Falcons relatively closely in Week 1, but they were crushed by the Buccaneers last week. I would like nothing more than to see da Bears upset the Steelers, but I am not delusional. STEELERS 35-17
FALCONS AT LIONS- This will be one of the more interesting games of the first quarter of the season. Both the Lions and Falcons have begun the season 2-0 with fairly dominant performances in each of their contests. The fact that the Falcons struggled as much as they did to put the Bears away on the road, however, gives me the impression that they'll struggle quite a bit more on a much better team's turf. I like the Falcons at home, but their defense has typically been weaker outside of Atlanta. LIONS 28-24
BROWNS AT COLTS- This game is essentially the opposite of the aforementioned Falcons-Lions game. The Browns are winless, and the Colts aren't only winless--they're temporarily decapitated with Andrew Luck out. Between Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, the Colts have spent nearly the last 20 years with such impossibly weak teams that they fall hopelessly apart without their quarterbacks. I've never seen an NFL team so inept without just a single player. The Browns will be without Corey Coleman but Deshone Kizer is good enough to make plays on an inadequate Colts defense. BROWNS 23-10
BUCCANEERS AT VIKINGS- As long as Sam Bradford is out, the Vikings are likely going to struggle to win games. The Buccaneers also happen to be a quality team. BUCCANEERS 27-14
TEXANS AT PATRIOTS- Congratulations to the Texans on barely beating the Bengals, but the Patriots will have home field advantage and Danny Amendola and Gronk back. PATRIOTS 38-21
DOLPHINS AT JETS- The Dolphins are rested and armed with a quarterback with on of the biggest arms in the NFL. He isn't perfect, but Jay Cutler should be able to better take advantage of the speed in the Dolphins receiving corps. What better game to get in rhythm than one against easily the worst team in the league. DOLPHINS 24-13
GIANTS AT EAGLES- There's still a chance they could turn things around, but until the Giants give me a reason, I can't pick them to beat a quality team. The Eagles might not yet be quite as good as I thought they'd be, but losing by a touchdown to the Chiefs in Kansas City is no reason to hang one's head in shame. The Giants need to learn how to put together offensive drives, but this is not the week they get things all figured out. EAGLES 30-16
SAINTS AT PANTHERS- Drew Brees probably longs for the days where he had chain-moving weapons such as Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham. A 9-3 win over the Bills wasn't particularly impressive last week, but the Panthers have had a lot of success against the Saints over the last 7 years. PANTHERS 20-17
SEAHAWKS AT TITANS- The era of Seahawks dominance is gone. It's still possible that they figure things out and make a push for the playoffs in an incredibly weak division this year, but I have to think they'll struggle to stop the Titans offense so far away from the 12th man in Seattle. TITANS 23-21
BENGALS AT PACKERS- I'm not too sold on the Packers after they were trounced by the Falcons last week in Atlanta, but the Bengals will have a tough time getting their first win in Green Bay. This, however, will likely be a closer game than many anticipate. PACKERS 21-20
CHIEFS AT CHARGERS- Going across the country to play a divisional rival is always tough. The Chargers have struggled thus far though, and I can't imagine they'll get their first win against what appears to be one of the top 5 strongest teams in the league. CHIEFS 27-20
RAIDERS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins had a nice win against the Rams last week, but the Raiders likely have more offensive firepower than Washington can handle. 31-24
COWBOYS AT CARDINALS- Just barely beating the Colts isn't enough to instill confidence in my mind about Arizona. The Cowboys will remember to feed Zeke this week, and they should be able to lock down a victory against a weak Cardinals team. COWBOYS 20-16
RAVENS AT JAGUARS- The Ravens may have discovered a secret weapon last week in Alex Collins. He ran with more burst, quickness, and better top speed than literally anyone who has run the ball for the Ravens since Ray Rice in his prime. Having Collins as one of the heads in a three headed monster will likely mean Baltimore won't struggle to convert first downs against the Jaguars. If Leonard Fournette is the biggest thing to worry about on the Jaguars offense, the Ravens defense will be just fine. The Ravens D bottled up Joe Mixon, and I believe he's actually better and more elusive. Problems in the Ravens defense have only come in pass coverage thus far, but expect Suggs to abuse an ailing rookie left tackle and expect Brent Urban to have a huge day with at least a deflected pass or two. This won't be a blow out because the Ravens will once again look to run down the clock once they have a comfortable lead, and then the Jags will score late, but it wont be enough. RAVENS 23-16
IT SHOULD BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE RAVENS AT 9:30 IN THE MORNING! LET'S HOPE RAVENS NATION GROWS IN MERRY OLD ENGLAND!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, September 23, 2017
Sunday, September 17, 2017
WEEK 2 NFL PREDICTIONS
The first week of the NFL season provided a reasonable degree of clarity to many with questions regarding the strength of the Ravens. Not only did the Ravens beat the Bengals, but they did so in Cincinatti 20-0. For the first time in half a decade, A.J. Green appeared mediocre when facing the Ravens secondary. Bengals rookie running back Joe Mixon flashed fantastic lateral movement and burst for a big back, but it wasn't before long that he found himself running into the figurative buzz-saw that is the Ravens defensive front 7. Andy Dalton had frustrated Ravens fans many times with late game heroics against Baltimore, but he did nothing of the sort last week. Suffice it to say that the off-season hype surrounding the Ravens bolstered, retooled defense proved quite justified with 5 sacks and 4 interceptions.
That isn't to say, however, that questions about the Ravens' true strengths and weaknesses don't still remain. Many sports analysts remarked about the fact that Joe Flacco only completed 9 passes in the game, and they insisted that he would need to do much more in the future to be able to seriously contend in the league. Reading statements like that made it clear that whoever wrote them didn't actually even watch the game. First, of COURSE Joe Flacco is going to have to complete more than 9 passes in most games going forward if the Ravens are going to have success this year, but it was Joe's first action against an opposing team since the previous season because Flacco missed all of this year's pre-season games. Second, the fact that the Ravens were able to get first downs in the second half and even complete a nearly 10 minute offensive drive in the third quarter without Joe completing a single second half pass means that questions about the Ravens ability to run the football at will were finally and unequivocally answered.
Baltimore made no secret about their intention to run the football on nearly every second half play, and yet the Bengals could do almost nothing to stop them. I can't remember a time since Ray Rice's rookie season that the Ravens have been able to impose their will on a team like that without mixing in passes to keep defenses from stacking the box. In essence, if a team knows basically what you're going to do, but they can't stop you from doing it, you must be quite dominant at that particular feat. Greg Roman's influence on the rushing attack was immediately apparent with a far greater and different variety of formations and plays than we've seen from the Ravens in recent years on the ground. This rushing style takes advantage of a Ravens offensive line that is much heavier and stronger than over the past 4 seasons.
The Ravens rushing attack certainly saw plenty of action, but little offensive emphasis was given to the Ravens trio of receivers including Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, and Jeremy Maclin. Maclin did however, put his speed and athleticism on display with a nearly 50 yard catch and run for a touchdown over the middle of the field that he made appear rather effortless. Seeing even just one such play from Maclin gave me comfort knowing the Ravens have a new proven veteran receiver in the tradition of Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith Sr. to make explosive plays and blow a game wide open. Smith Sr. will hopefully go into the hall of fame, and he made some absolutely spectacular plays as a Raven, but Maclin represents a significant upgrade over Steve in the departments of age and speed at this point. It is for this reason that I delight at the idea that teams will struggle to cover all three of the Ravens speedy top receivers at once--they'll have to essentially pick their poison.
The Browns will have their hands full with Ravens wide receiver speed as they'll undoubtedly feel compelled to commit to stopping a rushing attack that ran its way right down the throats of a strong Bengals defensive line on the road last week. The Browns may have committed too much to trying to make sure Le'veon Bell didn't run them over that they allowed Antonio Brown to light them up for 184 receiving yards. I don't expect any Ravens receiver to have that kind of a day considering Brown is one of the top 2 or 3 receivers in the league, but if the Browns secondary could do that little to stop one speedy threat, they're going to give up some big plays to 3 threats with elite game speed. Oh, and if the Browns DO drop most of their linebackers into pass coverage to double coverage the Ravens' speed merchants, expect Joe to hand the ball off and make Cleveland pay for their choice.
That isn't to say that the Browns aren't a vastly upgraded team from last season. The fact that their rookie quarterback kept them within a field goal of the Steelers would indicate major improvements over a team that failed to win more than a single game last season, though I would argue it also indicates the Steelers aren't quite as good as many assume they'd be right now, but we'll leave that discussion for another week. It certainly doesn't bode well for Cleveland that their first overall pick, Myles Garrett, is not going to play this weekend. Garrett is absolutely as good as advertised, and there's a good chance he would have given a still-recovering Flacco at least a shot or two over the course of the game. Without Garrett, however, and without a serious shutdown corner with the departure of Joe Haden, it's difficult Joe being under a tremendous amount of duress at home in Baltimore this Sunday. Even the shot that Flacco DID take against the Bengals didn't appear to do any significant damage to the veteran gunslinger.
As for the rest of the league, we appear to have gotten a bit of clarity with regards to several teams that may have been a tad overhyped or underestimated. The greatest example of both was the matchup between the Titans and Raiders. I must admit I bought into the Titans hype a tad too much, and I assumed that Derek Carr's ACL tear late last season would take away enough of his mobility to hamper the Raiders offense to the point where they'd lose this game. I also assumed the Raiders defense would not be good enough to make up for a less-effective-than-usual offense. I was, of course, incorrect as the Raiders handled business against the Titans and walked away with a 26-16 victory.
Elsewhere in the league, the Seahawks looked rather inept against the Packers in their 17-9 loss, the Rams absolutely smashed a Colts team that has run out of Luck (heh heh) 46-9, and the Falcons only barely beat the Bears in Chicago 23-17. I wasn't surprised by the Eagles beating the Redskins, and that game certainly was made controversial by the referees, but at 30-17 it didn't end up being close. It's safe to say that letting Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon leave in free agency meant less weapons for Kirk Cousins. I didn't predict the Jaguars would beat the Texans like a drum, but the Texans redeemed themselves on Thursday night by squeaking out a win over the Bengals after deciding to end the Bortles experiment and go with rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson.
It's certainly satisfying to get predictions mostly correct, but I wouldn't be unhappy with some early season surprises again this Sunday. With that said, let's take a look at this week's predictions!
THE PICKS
LIONS AT GIANTS- The Giants won't be dangerous until OBJ returns to health, and the Lions actually look pretty impressive thus far. LIONS 28-17
PACKERS AT FALCONS- This is always a shoot-out when Matt Ryan faces Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have a better defense, but the Falcons are at home. Hmmmmm... I know they'll be at home, but I wasn't crazy about how the Falcons offense moved the ball against an atrocious Bear team last week. The Packers are the more complete team and defense typically travels well. PACKERS 35-28
49ERS AT SEAHAWKS- This will give the Seahawks a chance to work out their frustration from last week. SEAHAWKS 28-10
REDSKINS AT RAMS- The Rams will continue this pleasantly surprising start to their season against a Redskins team trying to figure out how to become competitive again. RAMS 31-21
COWBOYS AT BRONCOS- This game will tell us a lot about the true strength of the Cowboys offense and the Broncos defense. I do believe in the end that the Broncos are the more complete team and they're playing at home in one of the physically most difficult environments to play in the world of sports due to atmospheric conditions. BRONCOS 21-17
JETS AT RAIDERS- Should there just be a forfeit option each week for the Jets? Letting all of their impact players go might have felt like some kind of rebuilding effort, but it was really just signifying to their fans that they've given up on this season before it even takes off (I'm full of bad jokes today). RAIDERS 38-13
DOLPHINS AT CHARGERS- Without a week 1 game it's difficult to know what to expect from the Dolphins. Sure would like to see Miami get a win here after what that poor state has been through with Irma. It's always tough to win when traveling across the country, especially when terrifying weather messes up your practice schedule. I hope they prove me wrong. CHARGERS 27-21
BEARS AT BUCCANEERS- BUCCANEERS 30-17
VIKINGS AT STEELERS- The Steelers got a gift with Sam Bradford as a game-time decision with a knee injury. The Vikings defense should be able to do a lot to keep the Steelers in check, but if Bradford is either out or hobbled by his injury, the Steelers upgraded pass rush will bring the pain. Ultimately the Steelers should find a way to win this game because Antonio Brown tends to make big plays late in games. If not, well then that would be awesome! I sure hope I'm wrong. STEELERS 24-14
PATRIOTS AT SAINTS- The Patriots often take roughly the first month of a regular season to figure things out before rounding into dominant form. Losing Edelman for the season and with Danny Amendola out, Tom Brady doesn't have his usual array of shifty receivers with which to execute precision timing passes on short and intermediate routes. The Saints have plenty of experience with Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan isn't likely going to be a devastating force without the likes of Edelman and Amendola to open things up. With that said, the Saints defense made Sam Bradford look like Tom Brady...imagine what they'll make Tom Brady look like. Gronk is still a matchup nightmare, and I expect to see Dion Lewis get utilized more as a pass-catcher with the smaller receivers all out. PATRIOTS 31-28
EAGLES AT CHIEFS- This will tell us a lot about the Eagles, and it will certainly tell us if what the Chiefs did against the Patriots was just a really good game for Kansas City or an indication of the emergence of a dominant new AFC power. CHIEFS 33-23
TITANS AT JAGUARS- I've often had trouble predicting the out come of games within this division, but let's see if the Jaguars defense can come up with another big performance this week. JAGUARS 24-21
CARDINALS AT COLTS- The Colts may be the most depressing team in the league until Andrew Luck gets healthy, and even then I don't believe his presence will be enough to salvage their season. I don't believe there are more than 1-2 teams who could go into Indy right now and lose a game. CARDINALS 28-14
BILLS AT PANTHERS- The Bills are capable of pulling an upset here, but as long as it took for them to pull away from a Jets team that gave up before the season even began, I can't see the Panthers losing. Carolina's defense appears to be back in working order, and it will come up with enough impact plays to put this one away at home. PANTHERS 23-20
BROWNS AT RAVENS- The last time the Browns visited Baltimore, they were blown out 28-7. The Steelers sacked DeShone Kizer a whopping 7 times last week, so I expect the Ravens to get a tremendous amount of pressure on the rookie QB as well. This Ravens defense is fast, physical, and opportunistic. With Suggs playing as well as he has ever played and the best safety tandem in the league going up against a rookie passer, it's safe to say I don't like Cleveland's chances in this game. I will, however, concede that the Ravens offense could stall at times if Flacco still finds himself mired in growing pains as he plays catch-up developing chemistry with his receivers. If the Ravens can go on the road and blank the Bengals, they should be able to win handedly at home against the Browns. RAVENS 27-13
WELL LETS SEE IF THE RAVENS DEFENSE CAN PUT UP ANOTHER DOMINANT PERFORMANCE, AND LET'S SEE IF THE RAVENS AERIAL ATTACK CAN DO SOME DAMAGE AGAINST A BROWNS TEAM THAT NO LONGER FEATURES JOE HADEN.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
That isn't to say, however, that questions about the Ravens' true strengths and weaknesses don't still remain. Many sports analysts remarked about the fact that Joe Flacco only completed 9 passes in the game, and they insisted that he would need to do much more in the future to be able to seriously contend in the league. Reading statements like that made it clear that whoever wrote them didn't actually even watch the game. First, of COURSE Joe Flacco is going to have to complete more than 9 passes in most games going forward if the Ravens are going to have success this year, but it was Joe's first action against an opposing team since the previous season because Flacco missed all of this year's pre-season games. Second, the fact that the Ravens were able to get first downs in the second half and even complete a nearly 10 minute offensive drive in the third quarter without Joe completing a single second half pass means that questions about the Ravens ability to run the football at will were finally and unequivocally answered.
Baltimore made no secret about their intention to run the football on nearly every second half play, and yet the Bengals could do almost nothing to stop them. I can't remember a time since Ray Rice's rookie season that the Ravens have been able to impose their will on a team like that without mixing in passes to keep defenses from stacking the box. In essence, if a team knows basically what you're going to do, but they can't stop you from doing it, you must be quite dominant at that particular feat. Greg Roman's influence on the rushing attack was immediately apparent with a far greater and different variety of formations and plays than we've seen from the Ravens in recent years on the ground. This rushing style takes advantage of a Ravens offensive line that is much heavier and stronger than over the past 4 seasons.
The Ravens rushing attack certainly saw plenty of action, but little offensive emphasis was given to the Ravens trio of receivers including Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, and Jeremy Maclin. Maclin did however, put his speed and athleticism on display with a nearly 50 yard catch and run for a touchdown over the middle of the field that he made appear rather effortless. Seeing even just one such play from Maclin gave me comfort knowing the Ravens have a new proven veteran receiver in the tradition of Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith Sr. to make explosive plays and blow a game wide open. Smith Sr. will hopefully go into the hall of fame, and he made some absolutely spectacular plays as a Raven, but Maclin represents a significant upgrade over Steve in the departments of age and speed at this point. It is for this reason that I delight at the idea that teams will struggle to cover all three of the Ravens speedy top receivers at once--they'll have to essentially pick their poison.
The Browns will have their hands full with Ravens wide receiver speed as they'll undoubtedly feel compelled to commit to stopping a rushing attack that ran its way right down the throats of a strong Bengals defensive line on the road last week. The Browns may have committed too much to trying to make sure Le'veon Bell didn't run them over that they allowed Antonio Brown to light them up for 184 receiving yards. I don't expect any Ravens receiver to have that kind of a day considering Brown is one of the top 2 or 3 receivers in the league, but if the Browns secondary could do that little to stop one speedy threat, they're going to give up some big plays to 3 threats with elite game speed. Oh, and if the Browns DO drop most of their linebackers into pass coverage to double coverage the Ravens' speed merchants, expect Joe to hand the ball off and make Cleveland pay for their choice.
That isn't to say that the Browns aren't a vastly upgraded team from last season. The fact that their rookie quarterback kept them within a field goal of the Steelers would indicate major improvements over a team that failed to win more than a single game last season, though I would argue it also indicates the Steelers aren't quite as good as many assume they'd be right now, but we'll leave that discussion for another week. It certainly doesn't bode well for Cleveland that their first overall pick, Myles Garrett, is not going to play this weekend. Garrett is absolutely as good as advertised, and there's a good chance he would have given a still-recovering Flacco at least a shot or two over the course of the game. Without Garrett, however, and without a serious shutdown corner with the departure of Joe Haden, it's difficult Joe being under a tremendous amount of duress at home in Baltimore this Sunday. Even the shot that Flacco DID take against the Bengals didn't appear to do any significant damage to the veteran gunslinger.
As for the rest of the league, we appear to have gotten a bit of clarity with regards to several teams that may have been a tad overhyped or underestimated. The greatest example of both was the matchup between the Titans and Raiders. I must admit I bought into the Titans hype a tad too much, and I assumed that Derek Carr's ACL tear late last season would take away enough of his mobility to hamper the Raiders offense to the point where they'd lose this game. I also assumed the Raiders defense would not be good enough to make up for a less-effective-than-usual offense. I was, of course, incorrect as the Raiders handled business against the Titans and walked away with a 26-16 victory.
Elsewhere in the league, the Seahawks looked rather inept against the Packers in their 17-9 loss, the Rams absolutely smashed a Colts team that has run out of Luck (heh heh) 46-9, and the Falcons only barely beat the Bears in Chicago 23-17. I wasn't surprised by the Eagles beating the Redskins, and that game certainly was made controversial by the referees, but at 30-17 it didn't end up being close. It's safe to say that letting Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon leave in free agency meant less weapons for Kirk Cousins. I didn't predict the Jaguars would beat the Texans like a drum, but the Texans redeemed themselves on Thursday night by squeaking out a win over the Bengals after deciding to end the Bortles experiment and go with rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson.
It's certainly satisfying to get predictions mostly correct, but I wouldn't be unhappy with some early season surprises again this Sunday. With that said, let's take a look at this week's predictions!
THE PICKS
LIONS AT GIANTS- The Giants won't be dangerous until OBJ returns to health, and the Lions actually look pretty impressive thus far. LIONS 28-17
PACKERS AT FALCONS- This is always a shoot-out when Matt Ryan faces Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have a better defense, but the Falcons are at home. Hmmmmm... I know they'll be at home, but I wasn't crazy about how the Falcons offense moved the ball against an atrocious Bear team last week. The Packers are the more complete team and defense typically travels well. PACKERS 35-28
49ERS AT SEAHAWKS- This will give the Seahawks a chance to work out their frustration from last week. SEAHAWKS 28-10
REDSKINS AT RAMS- The Rams will continue this pleasantly surprising start to their season against a Redskins team trying to figure out how to become competitive again. RAMS 31-21
COWBOYS AT BRONCOS- This game will tell us a lot about the true strength of the Cowboys offense and the Broncos defense. I do believe in the end that the Broncos are the more complete team and they're playing at home in one of the physically most difficult environments to play in the world of sports due to atmospheric conditions. BRONCOS 21-17
JETS AT RAIDERS- Should there just be a forfeit option each week for the Jets? Letting all of their impact players go might have felt like some kind of rebuilding effort, but it was really just signifying to their fans that they've given up on this season before it even takes off (I'm full of bad jokes today). RAIDERS 38-13
DOLPHINS AT CHARGERS- Without a week 1 game it's difficult to know what to expect from the Dolphins. Sure would like to see Miami get a win here after what that poor state has been through with Irma. It's always tough to win when traveling across the country, especially when terrifying weather messes up your practice schedule. I hope they prove me wrong. CHARGERS 27-21
BEARS AT BUCCANEERS- BUCCANEERS 30-17
VIKINGS AT STEELERS- The Steelers got a gift with Sam Bradford as a game-time decision with a knee injury. The Vikings defense should be able to do a lot to keep the Steelers in check, but if Bradford is either out or hobbled by his injury, the Steelers upgraded pass rush will bring the pain. Ultimately the Steelers should find a way to win this game because Antonio Brown tends to make big plays late in games. If not, well then that would be awesome! I sure hope I'm wrong. STEELERS 24-14
PATRIOTS AT SAINTS- The Patriots often take roughly the first month of a regular season to figure things out before rounding into dominant form. Losing Edelman for the season and with Danny Amendola out, Tom Brady doesn't have his usual array of shifty receivers with which to execute precision timing passes on short and intermediate routes. The Saints have plenty of experience with Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan isn't likely going to be a devastating force without the likes of Edelman and Amendola to open things up. With that said, the Saints defense made Sam Bradford look like Tom Brady...imagine what they'll make Tom Brady look like. Gronk is still a matchup nightmare, and I expect to see Dion Lewis get utilized more as a pass-catcher with the smaller receivers all out. PATRIOTS 31-28
EAGLES AT CHIEFS- This will tell us a lot about the Eagles, and it will certainly tell us if what the Chiefs did against the Patriots was just a really good game for Kansas City or an indication of the emergence of a dominant new AFC power. CHIEFS 33-23
TITANS AT JAGUARS- I've often had trouble predicting the out come of games within this division, but let's see if the Jaguars defense can come up with another big performance this week. JAGUARS 24-21
CARDINALS AT COLTS- The Colts may be the most depressing team in the league until Andrew Luck gets healthy, and even then I don't believe his presence will be enough to salvage their season. I don't believe there are more than 1-2 teams who could go into Indy right now and lose a game. CARDINALS 28-14
BILLS AT PANTHERS- The Bills are capable of pulling an upset here, but as long as it took for them to pull away from a Jets team that gave up before the season even began, I can't see the Panthers losing. Carolina's defense appears to be back in working order, and it will come up with enough impact plays to put this one away at home. PANTHERS 23-20
BROWNS AT RAVENS- The last time the Browns visited Baltimore, they were blown out 28-7. The Steelers sacked DeShone Kizer a whopping 7 times last week, so I expect the Ravens to get a tremendous amount of pressure on the rookie QB as well. This Ravens defense is fast, physical, and opportunistic. With Suggs playing as well as he has ever played and the best safety tandem in the league going up against a rookie passer, it's safe to say I don't like Cleveland's chances in this game. I will, however, concede that the Ravens offense could stall at times if Flacco still finds himself mired in growing pains as he plays catch-up developing chemistry with his receivers. If the Ravens can go on the road and blank the Bengals, they should be able to win handedly at home against the Browns. RAVENS 27-13
WELL LETS SEE IF THE RAVENS DEFENSE CAN PUT UP ANOTHER DOMINANT PERFORMANCE, AND LET'S SEE IF THE RAVENS AERIAL ATTACK CAN DO SOME DAMAGE AGAINST A BROWNS TEAM THAT NO LONGER FEATURES JOE HADEN.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, September 9, 2017
WEEK 1 NFL PREDICTIONS
I posted my first game prediction on Thursday night that the Patriots would soundly defeat the Chiefs who were notably without Tamba Hali. I included the caveat that the Patriots often begin the regular season poorly but make excellent adjustments after roughly the first 3-4 weeks and inevitably finish with 12-14 wins. The Chiefs' surprisingly dominant 42-27 win over Patriots was not, therefore, a surprise, but the fact that it happened in Foxborough undoubtedly raised some eyebrows.
I have since read sports writers question whether or not this is the beginning of the end of Tom Brady's dominance, and while I recognize that his career could decline precipitously as he is now north of 40 years old, I think the bigger lesson to take away from Thursday night is that no one truly knows just how good any NFL team is in Week 1--not even the Patriots. My predictions tend to become more accurate as the season progresses due to the greater volume of statistics at my disposal for analysis. It is, thus, only for amusement that I take slightly educated guesses as to which teams will win during the first few weeks of the season. I, after all, thought the Patriots would be even more dominant than last season with the addition of Brandin Cooks to a roster that just finished one of the most impressive wins in Super Bowl history.
As for the Ravens, I recognize that Joe Flacco's absence during the preseason has meant far less time for the veteran quarterback to develop a rhythm and chemistry with his receiving corps going into the regular season, but I can't help but be encouraged by what appears as though it could be the strongest, fastest Ravens defense in over a decade. The Ravens offense may not come out incredibly crisp at first, but it has the tools and weapons to ultimately be vastly upgraded over last year's unit. The addition of a healthy Jeremy Maclin, for example, gives Baltimore the fastest, potentially most explosive receiving corps it has ever had. With elite speed from all three top receivers as well as the pass-catching ability of Danny Woodhead, it's safe to say Joe will have an opportunity to revive the Ravens' vertical passing attack while still enjoying the presence a sure-handed chain mover as a safety net out of the backfield. Dennis Pitta may have had great receiving chemistry with Flacco, but he was woefully inadequate as a blocker. Getting Nick Boyle and Ben Watson back healthy means Flacco will have playmaking tight ends who aren't afraid to get a little dirty in the trenches.
My optimism for the Ravens offense is, nevertheless, accompanied by some lingering concerns. The offensive line has some quality pieces including Marshal Yanda, Ronnie Stanley, and recently acquired starting right tackle, Austin Howard, but the center and left guard positions still leave me with an uneasy feeling. James Hurst has reportedly improved markedly over the off-season, and Ryan Jensen has performed admirably in the pre-season, but neither is a truly proven starter. It was James Hurst, in fact, who was bulldozed into the side of Joe Flacco's knee in the 2015 season causing Flacco to tear his ACL. One thing is for sure: this is a much larger offensive line on average than that of the past several seasons. Jensen is far bigger than the man he replaced in Jeremy Zuttah, James Hurst is much bigger and stronger than Alex Lewis, though Lewis is a better athlete and likely has a much higher ceiling, and although Rick Wagner was the second ranked right tackle in the league last season, Austin Howard is even bigger. The Ravens definitely have the size and power to impose their will on the ground--now it's just a matter of execution.
The questions surrounding the Ravens offense should by no means suggest that the Bengals are an insurmountable obstacle. The Bengals won 6 games last season, and the last of those wins came as the result of a total lack of motivation on the part of the Ravens players following their elimination from playoff contention only a week earlier. The Bengals will not have two of their top defenders in Adam "Pacman" Jones and Vontaze Burfict, and they lost two of their best starting offensive linemen since last season. Cincy's offensive line has, in fact, been characterized as a significant weakness going into a game where it will face one of the fiercest defensive lines in the league. A.J. Green has given the Ravens fits in the past, but he has done so in years where the Ravens have had serious gaps in their secondary personnel. Baltimore now boasts the top rated safety tandem in the league and a vastly upgraded stable of corners. The Bengals also fared far better offensively before their previous offensive coordinator, Hue, Jackson, left to become the head coach of the Browns. Jackson's creativity allowed Andy Dalton to flourish in ways he has not done since Jackson's departure.
Does this mean I believe the Ravens will absolutely flatten the Bengals? Absolutely not. This will still be a difficult divisional matchup, but I think people overestimate the Bengals based on what they were before losing Hugh Jackson and even pieces such as Domata Peko and Muhammad Sanu. Joe Mixon doesn't appear ready to be the starting running back, and first round pick John Ross is not 100% healthy after a knee injury within the last week. The Ravens have appeared substantially banged up this pre-season, but they will take the field with only one real member of the 53 man roster not suiting up. The same cannot be said for the Bengals. The Ravens are -3 point underdogs in this matchup, and that's just the way they like it. Now let's take a look at this week's predictions!
THE PICKS
JETS AT BILLS- I can't imagine too many fans of either of these organizations have delusions that their team is going to the playoffs this season--let alone a Super Bowl. The Bills traded away Sammy Watkins, and the Jets appear to be purposefully dismantling their team in an effort to reboot and rebuild. If I had to take an educated guess, the Bills are still the better of these two teams and they're playing at home. BILLS 23-14
FALCONS AT BEARS- The Bears are horrible and the Falcons offense is absolutely devastatingly potent. FALCONS 35-17
RAVENS AT BENGALS- The Bengals haven't done enough to improve since last season, and I firmly believe the Ravens have done so. A losing team lost even most important pieces at the wrong time. The Ravens defensive line will stuff the run and bully a weakened Bengals offensive line. Joe Flacco will find his rhythm by the second half, and that will be enough to put down these kitties, but it will be close. Two important field goals from Justin Tucker will make the difference.
RAVENS 20-17
STEELERS AT BROWNS- The Browns will shock the world as they'll hang with the Steelers through much of this game, but the return of Martavis Bryant as a big deep threat will prove a deciding factor in this one. STEELERS 31-20
CARDINALS AT LIONS- Tough for me to believe the Lions will lose a home opener to a Cardinals team with a severely declining starting quarterback. LIONS 27-21
JAGUARS AT TEXANS- I'm not buying the Texans as a legitimate playoff contender until they get a real quarterback, but the Jaguars have to do something seriously this year to make me stop believing they're not almost totally useless despite a sizeable amount of hype over the last couple of seasons. TEXANS 24-10
RAIDERS AT TITANS- There are some who are quick to anoint the Raiders as an elite team once again after an impressive regular season in 2016. I, however, am not one of those people. Much of Derek Carr's talent as a quarterback depends on his mobility and athleticism to evade pressure and buy time to throw. Carr has simply not had enough time following a late-season ACL tear to be confident in his legs. I expect Marcus Marriota to take a big step forward this season, and it starts Week 1. The Raiders defense also still shouldn't scare anyone. TITANS 30-23
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- Nothing I've seen from the Redskins this off-season has made me think they could win their division, but we won't know until they play in a real game. The Eagles, on the other hand, have added a host of impact players, and Carson Wentz is pretty damn talented. EAGLES 24-13
COLTS AT RAMS- Andrew Luck isn't starting, and the Colts are going on the road. RAMS 17-10
SEAHAWKS AT PACKERS- No more Beastmode, and Earl Thomas is coming off of a season-ending injury. Russell Wilson is usually able to do some damage, but the Packers should open up well at home this season. PACKERS 28-21
PANTHERS AT 49ERS- The 49ers have very little to be excited about at this point but the Panthers have the potential to regain their footing in the NFC race. PANTHERS 26-23
GIANTS AT COWBOYS- The Giants were the only team in the league that truly appeared to have the Cowboys figured out last season, and this Cowboys team doesn't have all the same linemen from a unit that dominated just about everyone in 2016. Also no Ezekiel Elliot. GIANTS 24-21
SAINTS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings defense was fierce last season, and they'll probably do enough to allow their offense to edge the Saints. It's a long way from Nawlins. VIKINGS 27-21
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos don't impress me. The Chargers typically don't either, but Phillip Rivers seems to do reasonably well at the beginning of most seasons while his array of weapons is still healthy. CHARGERS 33-20
THIS IS IT, FOOTBALL FANS! WE ONCE AGAIN HAVE A REASON TO LOOK FORWARD TO SUNDAYS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
I have since read sports writers question whether or not this is the beginning of the end of Tom Brady's dominance, and while I recognize that his career could decline precipitously as he is now north of 40 years old, I think the bigger lesson to take away from Thursday night is that no one truly knows just how good any NFL team is in Week 1--not even the Patriots. My predictions tend to become more accurate as the season progresses due to the greater volume of statistics at my disposal for analysis. It is, thus, only for amusement that I take slightly educated guesses as to which teams will win during the first few weeks of the season. I, after all, thought the Patriots would be even more dominant than last season with the addition of Brandin Cooks to a roster that just finished one of the most impressive wins in Super Bowl history.
As for the Ravens, I recognize that Joe Flacco's absence during the preseason has meant far less time for the veteran quarterback to develop a rhythm and chemistry with his receiving corps going into the regular season, but I can't help but be encouraged by what appears as though it could be the strongest, fastest Ravens defense in over a decade. The Ravens offense may not come out incredibly crisp at first, but it has the tools and weapons to ultimately be vastly upgraded over last year's unit. The addition of a healthy Jeremy Maclin, for example, gives Baltimore the fastest, potentially most explosive receiving corps it has ever had. With elite speed from all three top receivers as well as the pass-catching ability of Danny Woodhead, it's safe to say Joe will have an opportunity to revive the Ravens' vertical passing attack while still enjoying the presence a sure-handed chain mover as a safety net out of the backfield. Dennis Pitta may have had great receiving chemistry with Flacco, but he was woefully inadequate as a blocker. Getting Nick Boyle and Ben Watson back healthy means Flacco will have playmaking tight ends who aren't afraid to get a little dirty in the trenches.
My optimism for the Ravens offense is, nevertheless, accompanied by some lingering concerns. The offensive line has some quality pieces including Marshal Yanda, Ronnie Stanley, and recently acquired starting right tackle, Austin Howard, but the center and left guard positions still leave me with an uneasy feeling. James Hurst has reportedly improved markedly over the off-season, and Ryan Jensen has performed admirably in the pre-season, but neither is a truly proven starter. It was James Hurst, in fact, who was bulldozed into the side of Joe Flacco's knee in the 2015 season causing Flacco to tear his ACL. One thing is for sure: this is a much larger offensive line on average than that of the past several seasons. Jensen is far bigger than the man he replaced in Jeremy Zuttah, James Hurst is much bigger and stronger than Alex Lewis, though Lewis is a better athlete and likely has a much higher ceiling, and although Rick Wagner was the second ranked right tackle in the league last season, Austin Howard is even bigger. The Ravens definitely have the size and power to impose their will on the ground--now it's just a matter of execution.
The questions surrounding the Ravens offense should by no means suggest that the Bengals are an insurmountable obstacle. The Bengals won 6 games last season, and the last of those wins came as the result of a total lack of motivation on the part of the Ravens players following their elimination from playoff contention only a week earlier. The Bengals will not have two of their top defenders in Adam "Pacman" Jones and Vontaze Burfict, and they lost two of their best starting offensive linemen since last season. Cincy's offensive line has, in fact, been characterized as a significant weakness going into a game where it will face one of the fiercest defensive lines in the league. A.J. Green has given the Ravens fits in the past, but he has done so in years where the Ravens have had serious gaps in their secondary personnel. Baltimore now boasts the top rated safety tandem in the league and a vastly upgraded stable of corners. The Bengals also fared far better offensively before their previous offensive coordinator, Hue, Jackson, left to become the head coach of the Browns. Jackson's creativity allowed Andy Dalton to flourish in ways he has not done since Jackson's departure.
Does this mean I believe the Ravens will absolutely flatten the Bengals? Absolutely not. This will still be a difficult divisional matchup, but I think people overestimate the Bengals based on what they were before losing Hugh Jackson and even pieces such as Domata Peko and Muhammad Sanu. Joe Mixon doesn't appear ready to be the starting running back, and first round pick John Ross is not 100% healthy after a knee injury within the last week. The Ravens have appeared substantially banged up this pre-season, but they will take the field with only one real member of the 53 man roster not suiting up. The same cannot be said for the Bengals. The Ravens are -3 point underdogs in this matchup, and that's just the way they like it. Now let's take a look at this week's predictions!
THE PICKS
JETS AT BILLS- I can't imagine too many fans of either of these organizations have delusions that their team is going to the playoffs this season--let alone a Super Bowl. The Bills traded away Sammy Watkins, and the Jets appear to be purposefully dismantling their team in an effort to reboot and rebuild. If I had to take an educated guess, the Bills are still the better of these two teams and they're playing at home. BILLS 23-14
FALCONS AT BEARS- The Bears are horrible and the Falcons offense is absolutely devastatingly potent. FALCONS 35-17
RAVENS AT BENGALS- The Bengals haven't done enough to improve since last season, and I firmly believe the Ravens have done so. A losing team lost even most important pieces at the wrong time. The Ravens defensive line will stuff the run and bully a weakened Bengals offensive line. Joe Flacco will find his rhythm by the second half, and that will be enough to put down these kitties, but it will be close. Two important field goals from Justin Tucker will make the difference.
RAVENS 20-17
STEELERS AT BROWNS- The Browns will shock the world as they'll hang with the Steelers through much of this game, but the return of Martavis Bryant as a big deep threat will prove a deciding factor in this one. STEELERS 31-20
CARDINALS AT LIONS- Tough for me to believe the Lions will lose a home opener to a Cardinals team with a severely declining starting quarterback. LIONS 27-21
JAGUARS AT TEXANS- I'm not buying the Texans as a legitimate playoff contender until they get a real quarterback, but the Jaguars have to do something seriously this year to make me stop believing they're not almost totally useless despite a sizeable amount of hype over the last couple of seasons. TEXANS 24-10
RAIDERS AT TITANS- There are some who are quick to anoint the Raiders as an elite team once again after an impressive regular season in 2016. I, however, am not one of those people. Much of Derek Carr's talent as a quarterback depends on his mobility and athleticism to evade pressure and buy time to throw. Carr has simply not had enough time following a late-season ACL tear to be confident in his legs. I expect Marcus Marriota to take a big step forward this season, and it starts Week 1. The Raiders defense also still shouldn't scare anyone. TITANS 30-23
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- Nothing I've seen from the Redskins this off-season has made me think they could win their division, but we won't know until they play in a real game. The Eagles, on the other hand, have added a host of impact players, and Carson Wentz is pretty damn talented. EAGLES 24-13
COLTS AT RAMS- Andrew Luck isn't starting, and the Colts are going on the road. RAMS 17-10
SEAHAWKS AT PACKERS- No more Beastmode, and Earl Thomas is coming off of a season-ending injury. Russell Wilson is usually able to do some damage, but the Packers should open up well at home this season. PACKERS 28-21
PANTHERS AT 49ERS- The 49ers have very little to be excited about at this point but the Panthers have the potential to regain their footing in the NFC race. PANTHERS 26-23
GIANTS AT COWBOYS- The Giants were the only team in the league that truly appeared to have the Cowboys figured out last season, and this Cowboys team doesn't have all the same linemen from a unit that dominated just about everyone in 2016. Also no Ezekiel Elliot. GIANTS 24-21
SAINTS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings defense was fierce last season, and they'll probably do enough to allow their offense to edge the Saints. It's a long way from Nawlins. VIKINGS 27-21
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos don't impress me. The Chargers typically don't either, but Phillip Rivers seems to do reasonably well at the beginning of most seasons while his array of weapons is still healthy. CHARGERS 33-20
THIS IS IT, FOOTBALL FANS! WE ONCE AGAIN HAVE A REASON TO LOOK FORWARD TO SUNDAYS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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