It's official, Cam Cameron will remain offensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens through the 2012 season. Many fans will undoubtedly punch their television, hit their steering wheel, or attempt to strangle an innocent bystander when they hear the news, but Harbaugh made it clear that Cameron is not going anywhere. This decision confuses me, however, as the Ravens got rid of Greg Mattison (thank GOD!) immediately after 1 season where the Ravens exhibitted a pattern of giving up 4th quarter leads and recorded only 27 sacks. Why then would the Ravens elect to keep Cam Cameron when the Raven's periodic offensive ineptitude led to road losses in 5 out of 9 away games this season?
I heard on the radio in the last 48 hours that the Ravens elected to keep Cam Cameron because they most likely would be too hesitant to head into the 2012 season with both a new offensive coordinator AND a new defensive coordinator as Chuck Pagano recently departed to Indianapolis to become the Colts' new head coach. Cameron will keep his job, but he will no longer serve as the quarterbacks coach as well. Flacco's noticable statistical decline during the 2011 season demonstrated that Cam Cameron simply wasn't up to that task. What task IS Cam Cameron up to though? He had a long list of offensive playmakers (Ray Rice, Vonta Leach, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, Ricky Williams, Dennis Pitta, and Joe Flacco) and a top ranked defense that gave the offense plenty of opportunities to make something happen, and yet somehow Cameron still called plays that left the Ravens with the 19th ranked passing offense and the 10th ranked rushing offense. Hindsight is 20/20, but this isn't just hindsight. These are issues that fans complained about before the beginning of this season. The Ravens did go 13-5 for the second year in a row, but it was not because of the offensive play calling... it was in spite of it.
As unhappy as I was to hear about Cam Cameron staying aboard the Ravens organization, I was equally happy to hear that Dean Pees is the new Ravens defense coordinator. Dean Pees has clearly overcome a childhood undoubtedly filled with ridicule regarding his name to become a fantastic defensive coordinator. During his 4 year stint in New England, the Patriots ranked in the top 10 in points allowed each season. Pees' defense recorded the fewest yards allowed per game in almost 30 years in 2007. Soon after Pees' departure, however, the Patriots' defense dropped to the second worst in the NFL, thus displaying his value as a coordinator.
In the end, players such as Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, and more recently Lardarius Webb, Cary Williams, Jimmy Smith, Bernard Pollard, and Pernell McPhee make coordinating the Ravens defense a relatively easy task compared to coordinating the defense of just about any other NFL team. Pees may even prove an upgrade over Pagano, though I don't intend to discount the job Chuck did in his short time as the Ravens' DC.
What have we learned today? Well that's easy. The Ravens will have a great defense in 2012 again, and Ravens fans will once again have to watch uneasily and hope Cam Cameron decides to change things up a bit. Let's hope the Ravens will be able to address their needs at linebacker and the offensive line as well as re-sign their most important players that just became free agents. Tune in on Monday as I'll be going over the value each one of the Ravens' free agents. As always, GO RAVENS...in the Probowl.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Monday, January 23, 2012
The State of the Ravens--there IS light at the end of this tunnel
I woke up this morning feeling as though last night was simply a bad dream. There's no way that the Ravens defense would hold Brady without a passing touchdown, that Joe Flacco would have a passer rating of 95.4 with two beautiful touchdowns, and the Ravens would still somehow LOSE THE GAME! The Ravens' young cornerbacks intercepted Tom Brady twice in spectacular fashion to keep the game painfully close. In fact, as I sat and watched Billy Cundiff and Lee Evans ruin my season, I realized the total irony of the name of this blog: that game was truly a Purple Nightmare.
As hard as it may be for Ravens' fans to see at this moment, there remains a fair number of things to be optimistic about going into the offseason. First, the Ravens finally have an elite secondary again. They have ball hawks all over the place and 3 highly talented, speedy corners that will only get better by next season. Ed Reed is still playing at an alarmingly high level, and I believe the offseason will be quite good for him to rehab further and come into the 2012 season in great shape. Bernard Pollard showed that he can be the hard hitting strong safety that the Ravens need, and if anything happens to Ed or Bernard, the Ravens have two talented young back-ups in Tom Zbikowski and Haruki Nakamura. The Ravens, therefore, finally have great depth, speed, talent, and experience at every position in the defensive backfield.
The Ravens' linebacker corps gives me less reason for optimism than the secondary, but there is still plenty to which I will look forward. I'm always happy to have Ray back, I don't think there's a single true Ravens fan that would have enjoyed hearing that Ray Lewis would retire after losing THAT game. Ray had 12 tackles, including a couple of punishing classic Ray Lewis hits, and he expertly defended a pass in the endzone to Wes Welker that otherwise would have resulted in a touchdown. It is clear, however, that Ray needs some support, and Jameel McClain showed last night that he is simply not consistent enough to provide it. Dannell Ellerbe couldn't tackle to save his life, and his abysmal performance helped to keep Patriot drives alive.
What then do we have to be optimistic about in this department? That's simple: the draft. Early mock drafts show two top college inside linebackers possibly being available to the Ravens close to the end of the 1st round. Dont'a Hightower of Alabama, and more interestingly, Vontaze Burfict of Arizona State would both be great draft picks to bolster the Ravens linebacker corps and provide depth at a position where there appears a bit of uncertainty as Ray Lewis comes 1 year closer to retirement. I believe Hightower will be drafted first out of those two players, but I believe Vontaze Burfict would be a much better fit and a total steal if the Ravens can get him with the 29th pick or whichever draft spot to which they made trade up. Here's an incredibly impressive highlight video for Burfict (#7): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7achvXsy3Q . Hightower is no slouch and he possesses great anticipatory skills that would be required to join Ray and the boys, but I don't see the same speed and intensity in his tape: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7achvXsy3Q . Both of these guys, however, come from colleges that Ozzie Newsome seems to favor in the draft. He selected Todd Heap and Terrell Suggs from Arizona state, and he selected Terrance Cody and Jarret Johnson from Alabama.
Terrance Cody and the rest of the defensive line dropped off in production late in the season, but that drop-off was due to a nagging leg injury that Haloti Ngata played through for most of the season. An off-season of training and rehab will be the only thing required to bring this otherwise strong group back to the form seen on Thanksgiving night as the Ravens sacked Alex Smith a record-tying 9 times. Pernell McPhee proved an incredible draft steal as he led NFL rookies with 6 sacks, and I seriously doubt the Ravens will look at this area of the team as a weak point when deciding who to draft.
It's often tough to predict who the Ravens will draft at which round because Ozzie Newsome's general philosophy is to draft the best player available rather than going after perceived positional needs, but if Hightower or Burfict fall close to the end of the first round, I believe either of those players WOULD be the best player available. What then, would the Ravens do with the rest of the draft? We can only speculate that the Ravens will go after a center or left tackle as Matt Birk appears to have overstayed his welcome on the Ravens, and Bryant McKinney, due to his age, is not a long term solution at the blind side. I can see the Ravens waiting to see who they are able to pick up in the draft before deciding whether or not to cut Birk and replace him with his back-up, Andre Gurode.
The Ravens may also draft a wide receiver or two depending on what is available in the later rounds, but I'm actually quite optimistic of what they have despite Lee Evans' inability to haul in a pass that would have altered the course of Ravens' history. With Pitta and Dickson, the Ravens now have two talented young tight ends with good experience. Pitta, in particular, showed his ability to catch just about everything that Flacco throws his way and caught one of the two Raven touchdowns in double coverage. Torrey Smith, showed that he can be a game changer all season and his ability to catch the ball and run short and intermediate routes became more apparent with each passing game. Boldin looked fantastic again after having his knee repaired and I can forsee fantastic chemistry between Flacco and both Boldin and Smith next year as they'll have an offseason to solidify their connection. Even Evans looked good down the stretch with some great catches in both playoff games. I doubt he'll be cut as the Ravens owe him a lot of money, but now that his ankle is healed, he'll provide a mixture of speed and experience that should make the Ravens passing offense even more impressive in 2012.
Perhaps the most important factor that will lead to an increase in production from the Ravens' pass offense next season will be the almost certain departure of the Ravens' offenseive coordinator, Cam Cameron. I naively held on to a belief that Cameron had simply withheld more creative plays from the regular season to be used in the playoffs. We saw a glimpse in week 1 of how explosive the Ravens' offense could be, and I simply assumed he left a few tricks up his sleeve that he didn't want the Patriots to see on tape. The Ravens DID move the ball in the second half of yesterday's game, but his offense still looked far too vanilla most of the season, and Flacco appears to have gone as far as he can within Cam's system.
Overall, the Ravens remained one of the elite teams in the NFL in 2011. In the past two season they showed that they have a defense that performs well even without Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, but I'm certainly happy that both of those future hall-of-famers will be back again as both demonstrated that they can play at a high level in big games. The Ravens will hopefully further bolster their offensive line which, along with the hiring of a better and more creative offensive coordinator, will help to take advantage of Flacco's cannon arm and a Ravens receiving corps that proudly includes one of the fastest (if not the fastest) deep threats in the league. Ray Rice only seems to get better each year, and at 25 years old, is smack dab in the middle of his prime. Yesterday broke our hearts, but if all goes well, I think we can look forward to a far more explosive, complete Ravens team in 2012 that will strike fear into the hearts of opponents everywhere. As a small consolation, now we get to watch 7 of them play in the Pro Bowl, so as always GO RAVENS!!
As hard as it may be for Ravens' fans to see at this moment, there remains a fair number of things to be optimistic about going into the offseason. First, the Ravens finally have an elite secondary again. They have ball hawks all over the place and 3 highly talented, speedy corners that will only get better by next season. Ed Reed is still playing at an alarmingly high level, and I believe the offseason will be quite good for him to rehab further and come into the 2012 season in great shape. Bernard Pollard showed that he can be the hard hitting strong safety that the Ravens need, and if anything happens to Ed or Bernard, the Ravens have two talented young back-ups in Tom Zbikowski and Haruki Nakamura. The Ravens, therefore, finally have great depth, speed, talent, and experience at every position in the defensive backfield.
The Ravens' linebacker corps gives me less reason for optimism than the secondary, but there is still plenty to which I will look forward. I'm always happy to have Ray back, I don't think there's a single true Ravens fan that would have enjoyed hearing that Ray Lewis would retire after losing THAT game. Ray had 12 tackles, including a couple of punishing classic Ray Lewis hits, and he expertly defended a pass in the endzone to Wes Welker that otherwise would have resulted in a touchdown. It is clear, however, that Ray needs some support, and Jameel McClain showed last night that he is simply not consistent enough to provide it. Dannell Ellerbe couldn't tackle to save his life, and his abysmal performance helped to keep Patriot drives alive.
What then do we have to be optimistic about in this department? That's simple: the draft. Early mock drafts show two top college inside linebackers possibly being available to the Ravens close to the end of the 1st round. Dont'a Hightower of Alabama, and more interestingly, Vontaze Burfict of Arizona State would both be great draft picks to bolster the Ravens linebacker corps and provide depth at a position where there appears a bit of uncertainty as Ray Lewis comes 1 year closer to retirement. I believe Hightower will be drafted first out of those two players, but I believe Vontaze Burfict would be a much better fit and a total steal if the Ravens can get him with the 29th pick or whichever draft spot to which they made trade up. Here's an incredibly impressive highlight video for Burfict (#7): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7achvXsy3Q . Hightower is no slouch and he possesses great anticipatory skills that would be required to join Ray and the boys, but I don't see the same speed and intensity in his tape: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7achvXsy3Q . Both of these guys, however, come from colleges that Ozzie Newsome seems to favor in the draft. He selected Todd Heap and Terrell Suggs from Arizona state, and he selected Terrance Cody and Jarret Johnson from Alabama.
Terrance Cody and the rest of the defensive line dropped off in production late in the season, but that drop-off was due to a nagging leg injury that Haloti Ngata played through for most of the season. An off-season of training and rehab will be the only thing required to bring this otherwise strong group back to the form seen on Thanksgiving night as the Ravens sacked Alex Smith a record-tying 9 times. Pernell McPhee proved an incredible draft steal as he led NFL rookies with 6 sacks, and I seriously doubt the Ravens will look at this area of the team as a weak point when deciding who to draft.
It's often tough to predict who the Ravens will draft at which round because Ozzie Newsome's general philosophy is to draft the best player available rather than going after perceived positional needs, but if Hightower or Burfict fall close to the end of the first round, I believe either of those players WOULD be the best player available. What then, would the Ravens do with the rest of the draft? We can only speculate that the Ravens will go after a center or left tackle as Matt Birk appears to have overstayed his welcome on the Ravens, and Bryant McKinney, due to his age, is not a long term solution at the blind side. I can see the Ravens waiting to see who they are able to pick up in the draft before deciding whether or not to cut Birk and replace him with his back-up, Andre Gurode.
The Ravens may also draft a wide receiver or two depending on what is available in the later rounds, but I'm actually quite optimistic of what they have despite Lee Evans' inability to haul in a pass that would have altered the course of Ravens' history. With Pitta and Dickson, the Ravens now have two talented young tight ends with good experience. Pitta, in particular, showed his ability to catch just about everything that Flacco throws his way and caught one of the two Raven touchdowns in double coverage. Torrey Smith, showed that he can be a game changer all season and his ability to catch the ball and run short and intermediate routes became more apparent with each passing game. Boldin looked fantastic again after having his knee repaired and I can forsee fantastic chemistry between Flacco and both Boldin and Smith next year as they'll have an offseason to solidify their connection. Even Evans looked good down the stretch with some great catches in both playoff games. I doubt he'll be cut as the Ravens owe him a lot of money, but now that his ankle is healed, he'll provide a mixture of speed and experience that should make the Ravens passing offense even more impressive in 2012.
Perhaps the most important factor that will lead to an increase in production from the Ravens' pass offense next season will be the almost certain departure of the Ravens' offenseive coordinator, Cam Cameron. I naively held on to a belief that Cameron had simply withheld more creative plays from the regular season to be used in the playoffs. We saw a glimpse in week 1 of how explosive the Ravens' offense could be, and I simply assumed he left a few tricks up his sleeve that he didn't want the Patriots to see on tape. The Ravens DID move the ball in the second half of yesterday's game, but his offense still looked far too vanilla most of the season, and Flacco appears to have gone as far as he can within Cam's system.
Overall, the Ravens remained one of the elite teams in the NFL in 2011. In the past two season they showed that they have a defense that performs well even without Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, but I'm certainly happy that both of those future hall-of-famers will be back again as both demonstrated that they can play at a high level in big games. The Ravens will hopefully further bolster their offensive line which, along with the hiring of a better and more creative offensive coordinator, will help to take advantage of Flacco's cannon arm and a Ravens receiving corps that proudly includes one of the fastest (if not the fastest) deep threats in the league. Ray Rice only seems to get better each year, and at 25 years old, is smack dab in the middle of his prime. Yesterday broke our hearts, but if all goes well, I think we can look forward to a far more explosive, complete Ravens team in 2012 that will strike fear into the hearts of opponents everywhere. As a small consolation, now we get to watch 7 of them play in the Pro Bowl, so as always GO RAVENS!!
Friday, January 20, 2012
NFC Championship PREDICTION!
As much time as I spent writing about the upcoming AFC championship, ultimately the NFC championship game is harder to analyze and predict. Much of my analysis comes after long hours spent looking over every possible relevant set of statistics between the two teams involved in any given game, but I ran into a bit of a roadblock with the New York Giants. The Giant's level of play has surged as of late, and because of that, it's tough to use regular season stats to predict their post-season future. The method to my statistical analysis has been to only look at what I deem to be relevant statistics and omit the rest. Thus far, this strategy has proven 100% successful. Now we get to the hard part: deciding which statistics are relevant in predicting a matchup between the two teams picked as underdogs of last week's divisional round games. One extremely helpful factor in all of this statistical madness is the fact that these two teams already played each other during the regular season. Now let's go over that game and then use the playoff games to predict how the newly enhanced play of the Giants will fare against a team that already beat them earlier this season.
During the week 10 road loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Giants out-gained Alex Smith and company absolutely stopped Frank Gore dead in his tracks as the Giants held the star running back to zero...that's right zero...rushing yards and only 8 yards receiving. One would think that totally bottling up Frank Gore would guarantee a win against the 49ers, but the 49ers defense ulimately proved too much too handle for the Giants. The Giants had 95 more total offensive yards, 5 more first downs, and had possession of the ball almost 10 minutes longer than the 49ers. The 49ers, however, intercepted Eli Manning twice, successfully converted a fourth quarter 2 point conversion, and stopped the Giants on their final drive to try to tie the game.
The 49ers' defensive success hinged on their employment of the same strategy that the Steelers used during the regular season to beat the Patriots. The 49ers sent 4 or fewer pass rushers against Eli Manning on nearly 75% of his dropbacks during the game. The 49ers pressured Eli with only 3 or 4 man rushes which caused Manning to make poor throws with many 49ers in pass coverage. Carlos Rogers had a huge day with both of the 49ers' interceptions. Both of those interceptions were on passes longer than 15 yards downfield which proved to be a trend for the 49ers even into the post season. The 49ers give up a significant chunk of passing yards per game (230.9), but allow an incredibly low number of touchdowns and have the habit of causing a headache-inducing number of turnovers.
Speaking of turnovers, the 49ers had 5 of them against the high octane Saints' offense. In one of the most exciting playoff games in recent years, the 49ers took the ball away from Drew Brees and his teammates enough times to tilt the odds in their favor and win 36-32, thus solidifying the 49ers spot as one of the top defenses in the NFL (please note that I have a hard time calling their defense the best in the NFL when the Ravens beat them 16-6 on Thanksgiving and had 9 sacks as well as an interception in the endzone right before half time, but who's counting...).
The 49ers just got done edging a team with a historically dominant offensive season, so they should be favored this weekend right? What's that you say? Oh yes I forgot to mention that the Giants just finished an even more impressive road stomping of the team that everyone (except me) assumed would return to the Superbowl. How did they do it? Well that's simple, they caused 4 turnovers and took advantage of a poor Packers' pass defense. Well darn, now it appears as though this prediction just got more difficult. Who do you choose? The team that edged a Saints team with consistently poor road performances all season? Or should you choose the team that somehow plays better on the road than at home as was evident in their metaphorical shellaking of the winningest team in the NFL during 2011? It appears as though both teams are peaking at the right time, but which peak is higher? To figure that out, we have to examine what has changed about the Giants since the first time both of these teams met.
No one can deny the value of a strong pass rushing ability in the NFL. In a regular season dominated by strong performances from the league's top quarterbacks, the ability to pressure and hit such offensive playmakers proved a critical asset in the post-season. Suddenly a team's total reliance on their ace quarterback proved more a liability than a strength. After all, if you get to Aaron Rodgers, who else do the Packers have to make plays? I'll give you a hint: the answer rhymes with '01. The Giants' pass rush increased dramatically upon the return of full health to Osi Umeniyora and Justin Tuck. A team that couldn't generate enough pressure to beat the Redskins (even once this season) suddenly found themselves tearing through far more competitive teams. To give you an example of the effect of the recent improvement of the Giants' pass rush, consider that Aaron Rodgers completed 84% of his passes and three touchdowns outside the numbers during the week 13 game against the Giants. Last week, Aaron Rodgers completed 47.8% of his passes with no touchdowns outside the numbers against the Giants. Much of the credit for this goes to a dominant defensive line and Justin Tuck. Their domiance at the line of scrimmage allowed Rodgers less time to make the clock-stopping sideline passes that would have been required to mount a comeback.
Tuck and Osi aren't the only Giants who returned to full health recently. Mario Manningham had been injured and saw limited playing time up until the playoffs. Suddenly Giants found themselves in possession of 3 healthy top wide receivers with which to spread the field (as though Nicks and Cruz weren't enough). Manningham caught 4 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons and will be yet another receiver that the 49ers will have to account for on Sunday.
The Giants barely lost to the Packers during the regular season, and went on to dominate the Pack in the post-season due to the return of several previously injured playmakers. The Giants also barely lost to the 49ers during the regular season, but I doubt they will dominate the 49ers the second time around because the 49ers still possess a great defense and play well at home. I do, however, believe the Giants will win this game as they now have the defense to both stop Frank Gore AND put pressure on Alex Smith to make bad throws. The 49ers will be able to get pressure on Eli Manning, but unlike Drew Brees, Eli has monumental success on the road and especially on the road in the playoffs. Eli now has 1,904 post season passing yards and is 4-1 in road playoff games. Eli also now has a full cast of top-notch receivers who can both beat the 49ers' defensive backs downfield as well as win jump ball situations (Hakeem Nicks rivals Megatron at this feat). I would be ecstatic to see a rematch of Harbaugh Bowl (mostly because I'm confident the Ravens would win handedly), but I'm equally excited by the idea of a rematch of the Ravens' only Superbowl. Now I just need the Ravens to once again handle their business and continue their flawless streak of beating playoff teams. My prediction: Giants 34-23. As always, GO RAVENS!
During the week 10 road loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Giants out-gained Alex Smith and company absolutely stopped Frank Gore dead in his tracks as the Giants held the star running back to zero...that's right zero...rushing yards and only 8 yards receiving. One would think that totally bottling up Frank Gore would guarantee a win against the 49ers, but the 49ers defense ulimately proved too much too handle for the Giants. The Giants had 95 more total offensive yards, 5 more first downs, and had possession of the ball almost 10 minutes longer than the 49ers. The 49ers, however, intercepted Eli Manning twice, successfully converted a fourth quarter 2 point conversion, and stopped the Giants on their final drive to try to tie the game.
The 49ers' defensive success hinged on their employment of the same strategy that the Steelers used during the regular season to beat the Patriots. The 49ers sent 4 or fewer pass rushers against Eli Manning on nearly 75% of his dropbacks during the game. The 49ers pressured Eli with only 3 or 4 man rushes which caused Manning to make poor throws with many 49ers in pass coverage. Carlos Rogers had a huge day with both of the 49ers' interceptions. Both of those interceptions were on passes longer than 15 yards downfield which proved to be a trend for the 49ers even into the post season. The 49ers give up a significant chunk of passing yards per game (230.9), but allow an incredibly low number of touchdowns and have the habit of causing a headache-inducing number of turnovers.
Speaking of turnovers, the 49ers had 5 of them against the high octane Saints' offense. In one of the most exciting playoff games in recent years, the 49ers took the ball away from Drew Brees and his teammates enough times to tilt the odds in their favor and win 36-32, thus solidifying the 49ers spot as one of the top defenses in the NFL (please note that I have a hard time calling their defense the best in the NFL when the Ravens beat them 16-6 on Thanksgiving and had 9 sacks as well as an interception in the endzone right before half time, but who's counting...).
The 49ers just got done edging a team with a historically dominant offensive season, so they should be favored this weekend right? What's that you say? Oh yes I forgot to mention that the Giants just finished an even more impressive road stomping of the team that everyone (except me) assumed would return to the Superbowl. How did they do it? Well that's simple, they caused 4 turnovers and took advantage of a poor Packers' pass defense. Well darn, now it appears as though this prediction just got more difficult. Who do you choose? The team that edged a Saints team with consistently poor road performances all season? Or should you choose the team that somehow plays better on the road than at home as was evident in their metaphorical shellaking of the winningest team in the NFL during 2011? It appears as though both teams are peaking at the right time, but which peak is higher? To figure that out, we have to examine what has changed about the Giants since the first time both of these teams met.
No one can deny the value of a strong pass rushing ability in the NFL. In a regular season dominated by strong performances from the league's top quarterbacks, the ability to pressure and hit such offensive playmakers proved a critical asset in the post-season. Suddenly a team's total reliance on their ace quarterback proved more a liability than a strength. After all, if you get to Aaron Rodgers, who else do the Packers have to make plays? I'll give you a hint: the answer rhymes with '01. The Giants' pass rush increased dramatically upon the return of full health to Osi Umeniyora and Justin Tuck. A team that couldn't generate enough pressure to beat the Redskins (even once this season) suddenly found themselves tearing through far more competitive teams. To give you an example of the effect of the recent improvement of the Giants' pass rush, consider that Aaron Rodgers completed 84% of his passes and three touchdowns outside the numbers during the week 13 game against the Giants. Last week, Aaron Rodgers completed 47.8% of his passes with no touchdowns outside the numbers against the Giants. Much of the credit for this goes to a dominant defensive line and Justin Tuck. Their domiance at the line of scrimmage allowed Rodgers less time to make the clock-stopping sideline passes that would have been required to mount a comeback.
Tuck and Osi aren't the only Giants who returned to full health recently. Mario Manningham had been injured and saw limited playing time up until the playoffs. Suddenly Giants found themselves in possession of 3 healthy top wide receivers with which to spread the field (as though Nicks and Cruz weren't enough). Manningham caught 4 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons and will be yet another receiver that the 49ers will have to account for on Sunday.
The Giants barely lost to the Packers during the regular season, and went on to dominate the Pack in the post-season due to the return of several previously injured playmakers. The Giants also barely lost to the 49ers during the regular season, but I doubt they will dominate the 49ers the second time around because the 49ers still possess a great defense and play well at home. I do, however, believe the Giants will win this game as they now have the defense to both stop Frank Gore AND put pressure on Alex Smith to make bad throws. The 49ers will be able to get pressure on Eli Manning, but unlike Drew Brees, Eli has monumental success on the road and especially on the road in the playoffs. Eli now has 1,904 post season passing yards and is 4-1 in road playoff games. Eli also now has a full cast of top-notch receivers who can both beat the 49ers' defensive backs downfield as well as win jump ball situations (Hakeem Nicks rivals Megatron at this feat). I would be ecstatic to see a rematch of Harbaugh Bowl (mostly because I'm confident the Ravens would win handedly), but I'm equally excited by the idea of a rematch of the Ravens' only Superbowl. Now I just need the Ravens to once again handle their business and continue their flawless streak of beating playoff teams. My prediction: Giants 34-23. As always, GO RAVENS!
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Final thoughts on the AFC Championship
I must admit that too many factors and thoughts consumed my mind whilst writing yesterday's blog post about the upcoming AFC championship game. The idea of finalizing a prediction began to make my head hurt, but for a number of good reasons. I know I said I'd provide more positional analysis of the linebacker corps of each team and evaluations of Joe Flacco and Tom Brady, but I'd prefer to take more of a big picture approach to today's post, and besides, we already know Tom Brady beats out Joe Flacco every which way. Instead, let's take a look at a number of points that made making a prediction so very difficult:
1. The Patriots and Ravens usually play their games in Foxborough, and while the Patriots are 6-1 against the Ravens, the Patriots' victories have all come by 6 points or less. The lone Ravens win was far more dominant, but that's just the point: it's the LONE Ravens win.
2. Despite some big letdown games against less than stellar teams, the Ravens played way up to their competition and won all 7 games they played against playoff teams. Five of those games were in Baltimore, but the Ravens did win convincingly in Cincinatti a few weeks ago, and even more importantly, they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh the week after the Steelers soundly defeated the Patriots.
3. Opposite to the Ravens, the Patriots won almost all of the games they played against losing teams, but lost both games against the only two teams they played that ended the 2011 regular season with a winning record, the Steelers and Giants. Note: Although the Broncos were a playoff team, they ended the regular season 8-8 and essentially backed into the playoffs because of their position atop an abysmal division.
4. The Patriots put up an astounding number of points this year...but they only played 4 games against teams with top 10 defenses. The Patriots played the Jets twice, the Steelers, and the Eagles. If you think the Ravens have had a poor offensive performance this year, please consider that they had the tall order of playing a total of 12 games against top 10 defenses including their playoff win against the Texans. Even the letdown games that the Ravens lost to losing teams came against two top 10 defenses in the Jaguars (6th ranked defense) and Seahawks (9th ranked defense) .
5. The Ravens are 13-4, but all 4 of their losses came on the road this year, and they're gearing up to travel to a stadium in which they've only ever won once. I would say that this is one of the most perplexing factors to take into consideration because the Ravens have had such a small amount of success in Gillette, but the Patriots have typically had a far more effective defense to match their high powered offense in the past. This is, however, a season of firsts for Baltimore under Harbaugh as the Ravens with Flacco at the helm had never beaten the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger playing, and this year they swept and outscored the Steelers 58-27. Could it be that this is the year that the Ravens have the personnel and drive to beat any top ranked opponent? 7-0 against playoff teams is hard to argue with as compared to the Patriots' 2-2.
6. The Patriots have come back from early deficits to win in the final 3 games of the regular season, but the Ravens are undefeated this season when they lead at the half. The Patriots were down 17-0 against the Dolphins at halftime and came back to win 27-24. The Patriots were down 21-0 at the end of the first quarter against the Bills and then proceeded to score 49 unanswered points to win in convincing fashion. Even the Broncos were beating the Patriots 13-7 at the beginning of the first quarter during their regular season game in Denver only to be silenced by the Patriots 41-23.
7. The Ravens' defense has not done well against teams with quarterbacks that have a quick release, but the Patriots poor performance against the Steelers gives a blueprint of how a similar team held the Patriots to only 17 points. Lamar Woodley was often able to harass Brady with help from only his D linemen. Suggs will have to be able to do the same. The odds are that Terrell Suggs will have a monumental day as he has shown up with huge plays against all of the top rated teams the Ravens played all season and typically relishes the chance to flatten Tom Brady. Ed Reed will have to be on top of his game as the Patriots won't shy away from throwing over the middle with their big tight ends. This should provide some serious opportunities for interceptions.
After careful consideration and about 12 and a half hours of looking at statistics and countless clips of Patriots and Ravens games from this season, I have arrived at a prediction. I'm picking the Ravens to win this game. Yes, I'm clearly biased, but I simply can't get past the fact that the Patriots haven't beaten a single team with a winning record during the regular season. The Ravens play up to their competition and they should be able to bully the Patriots at the line of scrimmage enough to scare Brady into making some spectacular passes....to Ed Reed and Lardarius Webb. With such a terrible defense, the Patriots will have trouble stopping the Ravens running game. Against an abysmal Patriots secondary, the Ravens should be able to complete deep passes to Torrey Smith. Anquan Boldin will be too much to handle for Patriots corners from a physical standpoint, and the Ravens will use Dennis Pitta when they need to move the chains on 3rd down. The Ravens have been able to score points on many top defenses and the Patriots have allowed even bottom-of-the-barrel offenses such as the Redskins, Colts, and Dolphins to score 24+ points on them in the last 6 weeks. When faced with the solid and occasionally explosive offense of the Ravens as well as the top notch Raven defense, the Patriots simply won't be able to provide an edge. RAVENS 31-21.
AS ALWAYS, GO RAVENS!!
1. The Patriots and Ravens usually play their games in Foxborough, and while the Patriots are 6-1 against the Ravens, the Patriots' victories have all come by 6 points or less. The lone Ravens win was far more dominant, but that's just the point: it's the LONE Ravens win.
2. Despite some big letdown games against less than stellar teams, the Ravens played way up to their competition and won all 7 games they played against playoff teams. Five of those games were in Baltimore, but the Ravens did win convincingly in Cincinatti a few weeks ago, and even more importantly, they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh the week after the Steelers soundly defeated the Patriots.
3. Opposite to the Ravens, the Patriots won almost all of the games they played against losing teams, but lost both games against the only two teams they played that ended the 2011 regular season with a winning record, the Steelers and Giants. Note: Although the Broncos were a playoff team, they ended the regular season 8-8 and essentially backed into the playoffs because of their position atop an abysmal division.
4. The Patriots put up an astounding number of points this year...but they only played 4 games against teams with top 10 defenses. The Patriots played the Jets twice, the Steelers, and the Eagles. If you think the Ravens have had a poor offensive performance this year, please consider that they had the tall order of playing a total of 12 games against top 10 defenses including their playoff win against the Texans. Even the letdown games that the Ravens lost to losing teams came against two top 10 defenses in the Jaguars (6th ranked defense) and Seahawks (9th ranked defense) .
5. The Ravens are 13-4, but all 4 of their losses came on the road this year, and they're gearing up to travel to a stadium in which they've only ever won once. I would say that this is one of the most perplexing factors to take into consideration because the Ravens have had such a small amount of success in Gillette, but the Patriots have typically had a far more effective defense to match their high powered offense in the past. This is, however, a season of firsts for Baltimore under Harbaugh as the Ravens with Flacco at the helm had never beaten the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger playing, and this year they swept and outscored the Steelers 58-27. Could it be that this is the year that the Ravens have the personnel and drive to beat any top ranked opponent? 7-0 against playoff teams is hard to argue with as compared to the Patriots' 2-2.
6. The Patriots have come back from early deficits to win in the final 3 games of the regular season, but the Ravens are undefeated this season when they lead at the half. The Patriots were down 17-0 against the Dolphins at halftime and came back to win 27-24. The Patriots were down 21-0 at the end of the first quarter against the Bills and then proceeded to score 49 unanswered points to win in convincing fashion. Even the Broncos were beating the Patriots 13-7 at the beginning of the first quarter during their regular season game in Denver only to be silenced by the Patriots 41-23.
7. The Ravens' defense has not done well against teams with quarterbacks that have a quick release, but the Patriots poor performance against the Steelers gives a blueprint of how a similar team held the Patriots to only 17 points. Lamar Woodley was often able to harass Brady with help from only his D linemen. Suggs will have to be able to do the same. The odds are that Terrell Suggs will have a monumental day as he has shown up with huge plays against all of the top rated teams the Ravens played all season and typically relishes the chance to flatten Tom Brady. Ed Reed will have to be on top of his game as the Patriots won't shy away from throwing over the middle with their big tight ends. This should provide some serious opportunities for interceptions.
After careful consideration and about 12 and a half hours of looking at statistics and countless clips of Patriots and Ravens games from this season, I have arrived at a prediction. I'm picking the Ravens to win this game. Yes, I'm clearly biased, but I simply can't get past the fact that the Patriots haven't beaten a single team with a winning record during the regular season. The Ravens play up to their competition and they should be able to bully the Patriots at the line of scrimmage enough to scare Brady into making some spectacular passes....to Ed Reed and Lardarius Webb. With such a terrible defense, the Patriots will have trouble stopping the Ravens running game. Against an abysmal Patriots secondary, the Ravens should be able to complete deep passes to Torrey Smith. Anquan Boldin will be too much to handle for Patriots corners from a physical standpoint, and the Ravens will use Dennis Pitta when they need to move the chains on 3rd down. The Ravens have been able to score points on many top defenses and the Patriots have allowed even bottom-of-the-barrel offenses such as the Redskins, Colts, and Dolphins to score 24+ points on them in the last 6 weeks. When faced with the solid and occasionally explosive offense of the Ravens as well as the top notch Raven defense, the Patriots simply won't be able to provide an edge. RAVENS 31-21.
AS ALWAYS, GO RAVENS!!
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
How does the Patriots' offense match up with the Ravens' defense (and vice versa)?
I don't pretend to be objective in my analysis of the upcoming AFC championship game between the Ravens and Patriots. Claiming objectivity would be a total farce and maybe cause me to lose the respect of my current and growing readership. I will, however, do my best to approach my analysis with as little bias and as much honesty as a devout Ravens fan could hope to muster against a team that I hate almost as much as the Steelers. After all, the Ravens are not invincible, and much of the fanbase appears uneasy after such an unconvincing offensive performance against the Houston Texans in the divisional round of the playoffs last Sunday. The Patriots offer almost a polar opposite challenge to the Ravens in contrast to the Texans. Unlike the divisional round, the Ravens will not have the heavy benefit of homefield advantage, nor will they face a rookie quarterback with less than half of a season's games under his belt. ThePatriots-Ravens game will, nevertheless, involve some intriguing favorable and unfavorable matchups for each team, and for that reason this game will be very tough to predict. Let's break it down:
I have heard some people saying that this game will pit Brady versus Flacco, and in that regard the Patriots have an advantage. This is true that Brady is better than Flacco by far, but Brady will not be matched up against Flacco. He and his vaunted group of receivers will, instead, be matched up against the Ravens pass defense which ranked 4th in the NFL during the regular season. The Ravens secondary boasts future hall-of-famer Ed Reed and has a hard-hitting strong safety, Bernard Pollard, and solid speedy and physical group of young cornerbacks in Lardarius Webb, Cary Williams, and Jimmy Smith. Flacco and his receivers, by contrast, will be matched up against possibly the worst pass defense in the NFL this year. Patriots' cornerbacks Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty have both given up alarming amounts of yardage this year despite Arrington's steller 7 interceptions. Starting safeties Patrick Chung and James Ihedigbo haven't exactly had tremendous success shutting down opposing pass offenses down either. I would love to speculate which Patriots corner will be matched up with Torrey Smith and which will be matched up with Anquan Boldin, but the Patriots play more of a zone scheme which would make such speculations irrelevant.
The Ravens secondary, though highly ranked and battle tested, will undoubtedly have its hands full with the Patriots receivers. The Patriots wide receivers won't have tremendous success in a foot race against the Ravens' cornerbacks, but straight away track speed isn't what makes Wes Welker great. Welker caught for over 1500 yards this season and is the only player in NFL history to have 3 or more seasons of at least 110 catches. Welker simply finds weakenesses in defenses and uses crisp route running ability, good lateral quickness, and surehanded catching ability to wreak havok on opposing teams. Brady's quick release allows Welker to consistently move the chains with short and intermediate catches.
Both Wes Welker and the Patriots other starting wide receiver, Deion Branch, are both 5'9" and don't pose height mismatches against Cary Williams (6'1"), Jimmy Smith (6'2"), or even Lardarius Webb (5'10"), but what Welker and Branch lack in stature is more than made up for by the Patriots' big, physical, spectacular tight ends. Rob Gronkowski is currently enjoying one of the best seasons of a tight end in the history of the NFL. In only his second season in the NFL, Gronkowski has amassed 1327 regular season receiving yards and 17 regular season touchdowns. Combine that with 3 amazing touchdowns and 145 yards gained through the air in the divisional round of the playoffs, and you get a season with close to 1500 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns.
What's even scarier than a tight end who has piled up close to 1500 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns?? Well that's simple: the Patriots have TWO amazing tight ends...not one. Aaron Hernandez does not have as many receiving yards and touchdowns as Gronkowski, but the young man is certainly no slouch. Hernandez accumulated 965 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns this season counting the first playoff game. Both tight ends, therefore, totalled a mind-boggling 2437 receiving yards, and 28 touchdowns thus far! As I alluded to earlier, both tight ends create height and physicality missmatches with almost everyone in the Ravens secondary. Rob Gronkowski, in particular, is 6'6" 265 pounds and Aaron Hernandez is 6'1" 245 pounds. These two young men combine size, athleticism, and great hands to help make the Patriots the most arguably the most dominant offense in the NFL this season.
The Ravens, in order to combat the efforts of a stellar Patriots' receiving corps, must harass Tom Brady to no end and play man coverage. I have no doubt that the Ravens will be able to take away the deep pass as the Ravens' secondary outmatches the Patriots' receiving corps in speed, but the Patriots have the power to use quick passes to march downfield at an astounding rate. To take away quick passes, the Ravens' front 7 will have to bully the Patriots inconsistent offensive line. This could be a problem for the Ravens as the extra bye week appears to have rejuvenated Brady's pass protection. Terrell Suggs has been quiet as of late, and if the Ravens hope to win in Foxborough, Suggs and his pass rushing teammates (Pernell McPhee, Cory Redding, Haloti Ngata, and Paul Kruger) MUST hit Brady hard, early, and often.
Though not nearly as explosive as that of the Patriots, the Ravens offense does boast an array of weapons used to win not 1, not 2, but 7 games against playoff teams this season. The Ravens center their offense around Ray Rice. Rice, as I'm sure most of you already know, led the NFL in all purpose yards from scrimmage this year with over 2000. Rice also had a career high 15 touchdowns. Little Ray displayed his playmaking ability during the last playoff meeting between these two teams two years ago as he sprinted 80 yards on the first play from scrimmage for a touchdown that stunned everyone in Gillette Stadium. Rice averaged 4.7 yards per carry during the regular season and that statistic is far more impressive when one considers that the Ravens played 8 games against top 10 rush defenses this season. Ray Rice is now one of two players in NFL history to have multiple seasons with both 1200 yards rushing and 700 yards receiving.
To compliment Rice, the Ravens start a newly recovered and rejuvinated Anquan Boldin and a speedy Torrey Smith at wide receiver. Smith has had a record setting rookie season for the Ravens with 7 touchdowns (beating Jamaal Lewis' rookie record of 6) and 850 yards on 51 receptions. Smith has shown an ability to get behind most secondaries as he appears to have a second gear of speed that he turns on late in his route to leave corners and safeties in his rear view. Smith's biggest weakness remains his hands. He made some impressive catches away from his body this season, but has dropped a large number of passes that could have been turned into touchdowns with his break-away speed. Boldin has had an uneven season. At times he has shined brilliantly, but he also dropped catchable balls at critical moments. Boldin recently revealed that he played most of the season on a torn mensicus, and after his rehabilitation Boldin returned in the first game of the playoffs with 4 solid catches for 73 yards and a strong 18.1 yards per catch. Boldin's physical presence and hands coupled with his recently regained health will undoubtedly created matchup problems in the Patriots' lackluster secondary.
Possibly the biggest set of questions going into Sunday's AFC matchup will be the performance of both the Ravens' and Patriots' offensive and defensive lines. If you had asked me a few weeks ago how the Ravens offensive line would fare against the Patriots defensive line, I probably would have told you something to the effect of "the Pats' D line poses little threat to the big athletic Ravens' O line." At the same time I probably would have mentioned that the Ravens defensive line would physically dominate the Patriots offensive line en route to several violent sacks of Tom Brady. After the first week in the playoffs, however, I can't be so sure. The Patriots defensive line appeared strong as it put substantial pressure on Tim Tebow, and both sides of the Ravens line appeared outclasses by the opposing lines of the Houston Texans. The Texans, however, boast possibly the strongest offensive line in the NFL, and their defensive line has looked strong and ferocious for the past two weeks. I must conclude that the Ravens lines should have at least a reasonable deal of success, but I would be surprised if the Patriots' lines give them a good fight.
Most sports commentators and pundits seem to favor the Patriots in this matchup. They point to the fact that the Ravens have gone 4-4 on the road and the Patriots have gone 7-1 at home during the regular season. Many Ravens fans would point out that the Patriots ended up with an incredibly easy schedule and lost the only two games they played against teams that finished the season with a winning record, the Steelers and Giants. Ravens fans will also proudly remind you that the Ravens are 7-0 versus teams that went to the playoffs this season with big road wins against the Steelers and Bengals. There is truly too much to be processed and analyzed for one blog post so I will continue evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of each team tomorrow. I'll do a thorough analysis of Flacco and Brady as well as an evaluation of the recent performance of each team's linebacker corps. So hang tight, and as always, Go Ravens!
I have heard some people saying that this game will pit Brady versus Flacco, and in that regard the Patriots have an advantage. This is true that Brady is better than Flacco by far, but Brady will not be matched up against Flacco. He and his vaunted group of receivers will, instead, be matched up against the Ravens pass defense which ranked 4th in the NFL during the regular season. The Ravens secondary boasts future hall-of-famer Ed Reed and has a hard-hitting strong safety, Bernard Pollard, and solid speedy and physical group of young cornerbacks in Lardarius Webb, Cary Williams, and Jimmy Smith. Flacco and his receivers, by contrast, will be matched up against possibly the worst pass defense in the NFL this year. Patriots' cornerbacks Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty have both given up alarming amounts of yardage this year despite Arrington's steller 7 interceptions. Starting safeties Patrick Chung and James Ihedigbo haven't exactly had tremendous success shutting down opposing pass offenses down either. I would love to speculate which Patriots corner will be matched up with Torrey Smith and which will be matched up with Anquan Boldin, but the Patriots play more of a zone scheme which would make such speculations irrelevant.
The Ravens secondary, though highly ranked and battle tested, will undoubtedly have its hands full with the Patriots receivers. The Patriots wide receivers won't have tremendous success in a foot race against the Ravens' cornerbacks, but straight away track speed isn't what makes Wes Welker great. Welker caught for over 1500 yards this season and is the only player in NFL history to have 3 or more seasons of at least 110 catches. Welker simply finds weakenesses in defenses and uses crisp route running ability, good lateral quickness, and surehanded catching ability to wreak havok on opposing teams. Brady's quick release allows Welker to consistently move the chains with short and intermediate catches.
Both Wes Welker and the Patriots other starting wide receiver, Deion Branch, are both 5'9" and don't pose height mismatches against Cary Williams (6'1"), Jimmy Smith (6'2"), or even Lardarius Webb (5'10"), but what Welker and Branch lack in stature is more than made up for by the Patriots' big, physical, spectacular tight ends. Rob Gronkowski is currently enjoying one of the best seasons of a tight end in the history of the NFL. In only his second season in the NFL, Gronkowski has amassed 1327 regular season receiving yards and 17 regular season touchdowns. Combine that with 3 amazing touchdowns and 145 yards gained through the air in the divisional round of the playoffs, and you get a season with close to 1500 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns.
What's even scarier than a tight end who has piled up close to 1500 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns?? Well that's simple: the Patriots have TWO amazing tight ends...not one. Aaron Hernandez does not have as many receiving yards and touchdowns as Gronkowski, but the young man is certainly no slouch. Hernandez accumulated 965 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns this season counting the first playoff game. Both tight ends, therefore, totalled a mind-boggling 2437 receiving yards, and 28 touchdowns thus far! As I alluded to earlier, both tight ends create height and physicality missmatches with almost everyone in the Ravens secondary. Rob Gronkowski, in particular, is 6'6" 265 pounds and Aaron Hernandez is 6'1" 245 pounds. These two young men combine size, athleticism, and great hands to help make the Patriots the most arguably the most dominant offense in the NFL this season.
The Ravens, in order to combat the efforts of a stellar Patriots' receiving corps, must harass Tom Brady to no end and play man coverage. I have no doubt that the Ravens will be able to take away the deep pass as the Ravens' secondary outmatches the Patriots' receiving corps in speed, but the Patriots have the power to use quick passes to march downfield at an astounding rate. To take away quick passes, the Ravens' front 7 will have to bully the Patriots inconsistent offensive line. This could be a problem for the Ravens as the extra bye week appears to have rejuvenated Brady's pass protection. Terrell Suggs has been quiet as of late, and if the Ravens hope to win in Foxborough, Suggs and his pass rushing teammates (Pernell McPhee, Cory Redding, Haloti Ngata, and Paul Kruger) MUST hit Brady hard, early, and often.
Though not nearly as explosive as that of the Patriots, the Ravens offense does boast an array of weapons used to win not 1, not 2, but 7 games against playoff teams this season. The Ravens center their offense around Ray Rice. Rice, as I'm sure most of you already know, led the NFL in all purpose yards from scrimmage this year with over 2000. Rice also had a career high 15 touchdowns. Little Ray displayed his playmaking ability during the last playoff meeting between these two teams two years ago as he sprinted 80 yards on the first play from scrimmage for a touchdown that stunned everyone in Gillette Stadium. Rice averaged 4.7 yards per carry during the regular season and that statistic is far more impressive when one considers that the Ravens played 8 games against top 10 rush defenses this season. Ray Rice is now one of two players in NFL history to have multiple seasons with both 1200 yards rushing and 700 yards receiving.
To compliment Rice, the Ravens start a newly recovered and rejuvinated Anquan Boldin and a speedy Torrey Smith at wide receiver. Smith has had a record setting rookie season for the Ravens with 7 touchdowns (beating Jamaal Lewis' rookie record of 6) and 850 yards on 51 receptions. Smith has shown an ability to get behind most secondaries as he appears to have a second gear of speed that he turns on late in his route to leave corners and safeties in his rear view. Smith's biggest weakness remains his hands. He made some impressive catches away from his body this season, but has dropped a large number of passes that could have been turned into touchdowns with his break-away speed. Boldin has had an uneven season. At times he has shined brilliantly, but he also dropped catchable balls at critical moments. Boldin recently revealed that he played most of the season on a torn mensicus, and after his rehabilitation Boldin returned in the first game of the playoffs with 4 solid catches for 73 yards and a strong 18.1 yards per catch. Boldin's physical presence and hands coupled with his recently regained health will undoubtedly created matchup problems in the Patriots' lackluster secondary.
Possibly the biggest set of questions going into Sunday's AFC matchup will be the performance of both the Ravens' and Patriots' offensive and defensive lines. If you had asked me a few weeks ago how the Ravens offensive line would fare against the Patriots defensive line, I probably would have told you something to the effect of "the Pats' D line poses little threat to the big athletic Ravens' O line." At the same time I probably would have mentioned that the Ravens defensive line would physically dominate the Patriots offensive line en route to several violent sacks of Tom Brady. After the first week in the playoffs, however, I can't be so sure. The Patriots defensive line appeared strong as it put substantial pressure on Tim Tebow, and both sides of the Ravens line appeared outclasses by the opposing lines of the Houston Texans. The Texans, however, boast possibly the strongest offensive line in the NFL, and their defensive line has looked strong and ferocious for the past two weeks. I must conclude that the Ravens lines should have at least a reasonable deal of success, but I would be surprised if the Patriots' lines give them a good fight.
Most sports commentators and pundits seem to favor the Patriots in this matchup. They point to the fact that the Ravens have gone 4-4 on the road and the Patriots have gone 7-1 at home during the regular season. Many Ravens fans would point out that the Patriots ended up with an incredibly easy schedule and lost the only two games they played against teams that finished the season with a winning record, the Steelers and Giants. Ravens fans will also proudly remind you that the Ravens are 7-0 versus teams that went to the playoffs this season with big road wins against the Steelers and Bengals. There is truly too much to be processed and analyzed for one blog post so I will continue evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of each team tomorrow. I'll do a thorough analysis of Flacco and Brady as well as an evaluation of the recent performance of each team's linebacker corps. So hang tight, and as always, Go Ravens!
Monday, January 16, 2012
Weekend recap and a look ahead at the AFC Championship!
I will begin this blog post by making note of the fact that I correctly predicted all 4 divisional round wins over the weekend. I don't say this to sound boisterous, but I'm more proud that the straight forward statistical analysis provided in all 4 of my blog posts last week proved effective and accurate. Blogging about each one of the matchups forced me to look up statistical trends to a greater degree than I would have in most other. I am also proud that I didn't pick the easy, heavily favored teams to win in 2 of the 4 games. After reviewing all of the statistics for each of the teams in the divisional round, I found it surprising that the Packers and Saints could be widely predicted to win by the Las Vegas odds-makers and sports commentators everywhere. After all, the Saints have never ever won a road playoff game, and the Giants are a much improved version of the team that only barely lost to the Packers earlier in the season. Enough about last week. Let's look ahead to the AFC Championship!
One particular statistic that jumped out at me today was the fact that the Patriots have not beaten a team this year with a winning record. The only teams that the Patriots played that finished their season with a winning record were the Giants and Steelers, and the Patriots lost to both of them. The Patriots did beat one playoff team, but that playoff team (the Broncos) finished their regular season 8-8 and only backed into the playoffs because they happened to play in an extremely poor division this season.
This fact in no way discounts the Patriots offensive performance during the 2011 season, but it does reveal the Patriots to be a relatively untested team going into the AFC championship. The Ravens, by contrast, have played 7 games against playoff teams and won every single one of them. The Ravens swept the Steelers, Bengals, and Texans, and beat the 49ers in an exciting 16-6 Thanksgiving night slugfest. The Ravens went up against a team with an elite quarterback and a talented speedy group of receivers twice in the Steelers, and the Ravens also went up against just about all of the top 10 defenses in the league over the course of the season. So if the Ravens' offensive numbers don't appear extremely impressive, please make note of their opponents over the last 17 games.
I could make a prediction about the outcome of the AFC Championship game at this point, but it would be nothing more than an uninformed guess without first viewing the injury report for both teams on Wednesday or Thursday at the latest. Please stay tuned this week as I will provide updates and in depth analysis to the two upcoming conference championship games. As always, GO RAVENS!
One particular statistic that jumped out at me today was the fact that the Patriots have not beaten a team this year with a winning record. The only teams that the Patriots played that finished their season with a winning record were the Giants and Steelers, and the Patriots lost to both of them. The Patriots did beat one playoff team, but that playoff team (the Broncos) finished their regular season 8-8 and only backed into the playoffs because they happened to play in an extremely poor division this season.
This fact in no way discounts the Patriots offensive performance during the 2011 season, but it does reveal the Patriots to be a relatively untested team going into the AFC championship. The Ravens, by contrast, have played 7 games against playoff teams and won every single one of them. The Ravens swept the Steelers, Bengals, and Texans, and beat the 49ers in an exciting 16-6 Thanksgiving night slugfest. The Ravens went up against a team with an elite quarterback and a talented speedy group of receivers twice in the Steelers, and the Ravens also went up against just about all of the top 10 defenses in the league over the course of the season. So if the Ravens' offensive numbers don't appear extremely impressive, please make note of their opponents over the last 17 games.
I could make a prediction about the outcome of the AFC Championship game at this point, but it would be nothing more than an uninformed guess without first viewing the injury report for both teams on Wednesday or Thursday at the latest. Please stay tuned this week as I will provide updates and in depth analysis to the two upcoming conference championship games. As always, GO RAVENS!
Friday, January 13, 2012
Can the Saints win playoff games on the road?
This may sound like a strange question to some because of the fact that the Saints won a superbowl two years ago, but can the heavily favored Saints actually go thousands of miles across the country to one of the windiest stadiums in the NFL and beat one of the NFL's stingiest, toughest, defenses? This blogger believes that they could...but probably won't.
I hear and read on almost a daily basis about how "hot" the Saints are right now, and they certainly have some impressive wins as of late. Drew Brees and company are, after all, 13-3 and have won their last 9 games including last week's playoff rout of the Detroit Lions. No one can deny the sheer dominance of the Saints' offense and seemingly effortless way Drew Brees drives his offense over opposing defenses. There is, however, a stark contrast between the aformentioned offensive dominance at home in the Superdome and the still effective but far more pedestrian offensive road performance of this team. At home the Saints were undefeated and averaged a whopping 41.125 points per game during the regular season. That average would even be slightly higher counting their playoff victory over the Lions. In away games, however, the Saints went 5-3 and averaged 27.25 points per game. Such a disparity is certainly not uncommon as winning on the road in the NFL typically proves to be a difficult task. The Ravens, for example, are also undefeated at home and 4-4 on the road this year. The big difference is that the Ravens actually get to play at home this weekend against a team they already beat at home, and the Saints must make a long trip to the west coast in an environment far less conducive to big passing numbers for a team that typically plays well in a dome.
One might say that the average of 27.25 points per game on the road is usually enough to win most games, but the Saints also allowed an average of 24.5 points per game on the road which leaves a razor thin margin of victory from a statisical standpoint. The Saints win, on average, by less than a field goal on the road. The teams that the Saints have played on the road this year haven't been particularly challenging either with the exception of the Packers. The Saints, like the Ravens, lost a couple of letdown games against bottom of the barrel teams with losses to the Buccaneers and Rams. Even in their road wins, the Saints sometimes just barely squeaked by mediocre opponents such as the Carolina Pathers (30-27) and the Tennessee Titans (22-17).
Another equally important set of statistics to consider is the performance of the San Francisco 49ers at home. The 49ers are as close to an opposite but equal version of the Saints as one can find in the NFC. The 49ers rely far less on the passing game, and instead turn to stout, unyielding defense and solid run game. Alex Smith is no Drew Brees, but his passing touchdown to interception ratio (17-5) is phenomenal and has resulted in a 90.7 passer rating for the regular season. What the 49ers lack in offensive firepower they make up for in impressively consistent defense. Over the course of the entire regular season, the 49ers allowed an astounding 14.3 points per game. At home, the 49ers allowed a staggering average 10.875 points per game. They also beat their fair share of playoff teams with wins over the Steelers, Giants, Lions, and Bengals. Frank Gore has allowed the 49ers to control the clock with over 1200 yards rushing and averaging 4.8 yards per carry. The passing defense of the 49ers was not nearly as effective as the rush defense, but what the 49ers gave up in passing yardage they made up for with turnovers. The 49ers as a team had 23 interceptions to compliment their 20 forced fumbles. If all of those statistics weren't enough to convince you of the 49ers favorable odds of beating the Saints in San Francisco then consider this: the 49ers' margin of victory at home is 16.75 points as opposed to the Saints' margin of victory on the road of 2.75 points.
Season-long statistics are valuable tools in making educated analysis about the probable outcome of games, but they certainly don't give the analyst or sports fan everything they need to know to accurately predict the future. What a team did in the first half of the season, for example, may not be indicative of how they play down the stretch or in the playoffs. The Saints, for example, lost to one of the worst teams to ever enter the playoffs in the Seatle Seahawks last year. Another great example is the fact that the Patriots have had great regular season success in the last 3 seasons, but they're 0-2 in the playoffs during that timespan and lost both of those playoff games to teams that they beat during the regular season (the Ravens and Jets). The point is that the Saints could absolutely light up the 49ers en route to the NFC championship, but I simply don't like the odds. As always, GO RAVENS!
I hear and read on almost a daily basis about how "hot" the Saints are right now, and they certainly have some impressive wins as of late. Drew Brees and company are, after all, 13-3 and have won their last 9 games including last week's playoff rout of the Detroit Lions. No one can deny the sheer dominance of the Saints' offense and seemingly effortless way Drew Brees drives his offense over opposing defenses. There is, however, a stark contrast between the aformentioned offensive dominance at home in the Superdome and the still effective but far more pedestrian offensive road performance of this team. At home the Saints were undefeated and averaged a whopping 41.125 points per game during the regular season. That average would even be slightly higher counting their playoff victory over the Lions. In away games, however, the Saints went 5-3 and averaged 27.25 points per game. Such a disparity is certainly not uncommon as winning on the road in the NFL typically proves to be a difficult task. The Ravens, for example, are also undefeated at home and 4-4 on the road this year. The big difference is that the Ravens actually get to play at home this weekend against a team they already beat at home, and the Saints must make a long trip to the west coast in an environment far less conducive to big passing numbers for a team that typically plays well in a dome.
One might say that the average of 27.25 points per game on the road is usually enough to win most games, but the Saints also allowed an average of 24.5 points per game on the road which leaves a razor thin margin of victory from a statisical standpoint. The Saints win, on average, by less than a field goal on the road. The teams that the Saints have played on the road this year haven't been particularly challenging either with the exception of the Packers. The Saints, like the Ravens, lost a couple of letdown games against bottom of the barrel teams with losses to the Buccaneers and Rams. Even in their road wins, the Saints sometimes just barely squeaked by mediocre opponents such as the Carolina Pathers (30-27) and the Tennessee Titans (22-17).
Another equally important set of statistics to consider is the performance of the San Francisco 49ers at home. The 49ers are as close to an opposite but equal version of the Saints as one can find in the NFC. The 49ers rely far less on the passing game, and instead turn to stout, unyielding defense and solid run game. Alex Smith is no Drew Brees, but his passing touchdown to interception ratio (17-5) is phenomenal and has resulted in a 90.7 passer rating for the regular season. What the 49ers lack in offensive firepower they make up for in impressively consistent defense. Over the course of the entire regular season, the 49ers allowed an astounding 14.3 points per game. At home, the 49ers allowed a staggering average 10.875 points per game. They also beat their fair share of playoff teams with wins over the Steelers, Giants, Lions, and Bengals. Frank Gore has allowed the 49ers to control the clock with over 1200 yards rushing and averaging 4.8 yards per carry. The passing defense of the 49ers was not nearly as effective as the rush defense, but what the 49ers gave up in passing yardage they made up for with turnovers. The 49ers as a team had 23 interceptions to compliment their 20 forced fumbles. If all of those statistics weren't enough to convince you of the 49ers favorable odds of beating the Saints in San Francisco then consider this: the 49ers' margin of victory at home is 16.75 points as opposed to the Saints' margin of victory on the road of 2.75 points.
Season-long statistics are valuable tools in making educated analysis about the probable outcome of games, but they certainly don't give the analyst or sports fan everything they need to know to accurately predict the future. What a team did in the first half of the season, for example, may not be indicative of how they play down the stretch or in the playoffs. The Saints, for example, lost to one of the worst teams to ever enter the playoffs in the Seatle Seahawks last year. Another great example is the fact that the Patriots have had great regular season success in the last 3 seasons, but they're 0-2 in the playoffs during that timespan and lost both of those playoff games to teams that they beat during the regular season (the Ravens and Jets). The point is that the Saints could absolutely light up the 49ers en route to the NFC championship, but I simply don't like the odds. As always, GO RAVENS!
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
NFC Showdown: Are the Giants getting hot at the right time?
I must admit that I am truly far less qualified to comment on the NFC having watched far fewer NFC games over the course of this season than AFC games. I did, however, get a chance to see a fair number of Giants and Packers games, including the last meeting between those two teams. I believe the Giants have a serious chance upsetting the Packers. Let's take a look at why.
The Giants' season looked hopeful through the first 8 games. They finished the midway point of the season with a 6-2 record and appeared to have a commanding lead in their own division. In their 8th game they went so far as to beat the Patriots in Foxborough 24-20. Like any team, they possessed significant weaknesses such as a lackluster secondary, but Eli Manning and his young explosive receiving corps along with a strong pass rush allowed the G-Men to move down the field with ease and put up an average of 24.75 points per game. Manning himself finished the first half of the season with 2377 passing yards which had him on pace to have over 4700 yards by the end of the season. What lay ahead of the Giants, however, was a harrowing month of opponents.
The Giants played the 49ers, Eagles, Saints, and Packers all in a row. Three out of four of those opponents make up the numbers 1, 2, and 3 seeds in the NFC side of the playoffs this post season, and their other opponent is a divisional rival. The Giants lost all 4 games, but they lost 3 of them by a touchdown or less. The final of these 4 games was against the Green Bay Packers and ended in heartbreaking fashion to the fans wearing blue and red that filled MetLife Stadium. The Giants lost 38-35 after Aaron Rodgers drove his offense down the field to score the winning field goal in the final minute of the game. Despite the loss, this game may have been the best thing that happened to the Giants during the regular season from an educational standpoint.
During their narrow loss to the Packers the Giants were missing a number of key players, all of whom are currently reported to be healthy. Osi Umeniyora, Justin Tuck, and Mario Manningham all dealt with injuries over the course of this season, and only recently did all three return to their top playing form. The return of Osi and Tuck has meant a drastic increase in the speed and dominance of the Giants' pass rush, and Manningham's return has meant a valuable addition to a receiving corps that already boasts two of the league's top receiving threats in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. The result of this is a team that went into the first round of the playoffs simply dominating a formidable Atlanta Falcons team. No playoff team in the the history of the NFL had ever been held to 2 points before. It appeared as though the Giants were simply toying with Matt Ryan and company.
Despite a convincing win over the Falcons, the Giants are not favored to win in their upcoming match against the team that only narrowly beat them a month ago. Because of Aaron Rodgers ability to seemingly drive and score at will on his opponents, the Packers will most likely to be favored in any other game they play this post season. The Packers also have the home field advantage which typically proves rather advantageous especially this late in the season when most teams are not used to playing in the frigid temperatures of Green Bay, Wisconsin. I believe, however, that the Giants have the best shot of any team in the NFC (that's right I said any team) to beat the Packers at Lambeau. I have not bought into the Saints as they have only proven their ability to win big games at home and I cannot think of a more hostile environment for a dome team to play in than Green Bay. The Giants are not foreign to bad weather as New York becomes very cold at this time of year as well (though not usually to the same degree). Defense, namely the pass rush, is the factor that separates the Giants from other teams with high octane passing offenses, and the Giant's defense has improved considerably since the last time the G-men and the Pack met. Call me crazy, but I am picking both the 49ers and Giants to win this week and meet in the NFC championship the following week. And yes, I realize that I'll look quite foolish if the exact opposite happens. Please let me know what your predictions are, and as always, GO RAVENS!
The Giants' season looked hopeful through the first 8 games. They finished the midway point of the season with a 6-2 record and appeared to have a commanding lead in their own division. In their 8th game they went so far as to beat the Patriots in Foxborough 24-20. Like any team, they possessed significant weaknesses such as a lackluster secondary, but Eli Manning and his young explosive receiving corps along with a strong pass rush allowed the G-Men to move down the field with ease and put up an average of 24.75 points per game. Manning himself finished the first half of the season with 2377 passing yards which had him on pace to have over 4700 yards by the end of the season. What lay ahead of the Giants, however, was a harrowing month of opponents.
The Giants played the 49ers, Eagles, Saints, and Packers all in a row. Three out of four of those opponents make up the numbers 1, 2, and 3 seeds in the NFC side of the playoffs this post season, and their other opponent is a divisional rival. The Giants lost all 4 games, but they lost 3 of them by a touchdown or less. The final of these 4 games was against the Green Bay Packers and ended in heartbreaking fashion to the fans wearing blue and red that filled MetLife Stadium. The Giants lost 38-35 after Aaron Rodgers drove his offense down the field to score the winning field goal in the final minute of the game. Despite the loss, this game may have been the best thing that happened to the Giants during the regular season from an educational standpoint.
During their narrow loss to the Packers the Giants were missing a number of key players, all of whom are currently reported to be healthy. Osi Umeniyora, Justin Tuck, and Mario Manningham all dealt with injuries over the course of this season, and only recently did all three return to their top playing form. The return of Osi and Tuck has meant a drastic increase in the speed and dominance of the Giants' pass rush, and Manningham's return has meant a valuable addition to a receiving corps that already boasts two of the league's top receiving threats in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. The result of this is a team that went into the first round of the playoffs simply dominating a formidable Atlanta Falcons team. No playoff team in the the history of the NFL had ever been held to 2 points before. It appeared as though the Giants were simply toying with Matt Ryan and company.
Despite a convincing win over the Falcons, the Giants are not favored to win in their upcoming match against the team that only narrowly beat them a month ago. Because of Aaron Rodgers ability to seemingly drive and score at will on his opponents, the Packers will most likely to be favored in any other game they play this post season. The Packers also have the home field advantage which typically proves rather advantageous especially this late in the season when most teams are not used to playing in the frigid temperatures of Green Bay, Wisconsin. I believe, however, that the Giants have the best shot of any team in the NFC (that's right I said any team) to beat the Packers at Lambeau. I have not bought into the Saints as they have only proven their ability to win big games at home and I cannot think of a more hostile environment for a dome team to play in than Green Bay. The Giants are not foreign to bad weather as New York becomes very cold at this time of year as well (though not usually to the same degree). Defense, namely the pass rush, is the factor that separates the Giants from other teams with high octane passing offenses, and the Giant's defense has improved considerably since the last time the G-men and the Pack met. Call me crazy, but I am picking both the 49ers and Giants to win this week and meet in the NFC championship the following week. And yes, I realize that I'll look quite foolish if the exact opposite happens. Please let me know what your predictions are, and as always, GO RAVENS!
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
How long will Tebow Time last?
I heard conjecture over the last couple of days about Tim Tebow's chances of continuing his trend of surprising upsets. Tebow just took it to the Steeler defense like no other quarterback has done yet this year, but I have serious doubts that the Broncos can beat a team that only recently thumped them 41-23 in Denver. Were the Steelers simply that broken? Or has Tim Tebow truly stepped up his game that much? It appears as though Tebow did take a big step in the right direction with a passing performance of 2 touchdowns, 316 passing yards, and no interceptions. The jury is still out, however, on whether or not his completions were the product of the Steeler defense simply not taking him seriously or if they were the product of his actual growth as a passer. It must be a combination of the two and here's why:
Anyone paying close attention to the Steelers' defense during Sunday night's game could see that the Steelers were committed to stopping the running game of the Broncos. The Broncos, after all, possessed the #1 ranked rushing attack of the regular season with Willis McGahee having a resurgance in his productivity with nearly 1200 rushing yards and Tebow rushing for 660 yards and 5.4 yards per carry. Tim Tebow also never came close to 300 yards passing, let alone against the NFL's highest rated pass defense. Conventional wisdom would therefore suggest that if you stop the run, you beat the Broncos. Maybe it was the pep talk given to him by one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, or perhaps it was simply the knowledge that the playoffs are truly a do or die situation, but Tim Tebow used every single weapon in his personal arsenal to make the Steeler defense look like just an average group. He ran the ball well and had a beautiful rushing touchdown, he evaded a pass rush that looked as though it would have taken down any other quarterback in the league at times, and he rolled out of the pocket to make deep, high pressure, accurate throws to his speedy wide receivers. In other words...he looked like a more athletic (non-sex offender) version of Ben Roethlistberger with an unorthodox throwing motion. For that, we must give the young guy credit; that was a fantastic performance.
Tebow's performance, however, was made a lot easier by the massive number of major injuries to the Steelers' roster. Injuries to Mendenhall and Roethlisberger took away the Steelers' ability to sustain long drives, keep their defense fresh, and actually find the endzone rather than settling for field goals. Injuries to Keisel, Hampton, and Woodley greatly decreased the Steelers ability to both contain Tebow and put pressure on him. The absence of Ryan Clark proved extremely costly as it meant a serious void in a secondary that had looked quite strong earlier in the season. Suddenly without Clark, Ike Taylor looked woefully underprepared to line up against Demaryius Thomas, and we all know how poor Troy Polamalu is in pass coverage at this point. On top of the injuries, the Steelers defensive coordinator, Dick LeBeau, did something rather unusual: he coordinated a game poorly. LeBeau seemed to have a handle on the game as his defense slowed the Broncos scoring substantially in the second half, limiting Tebow and the Broncos to a single field goal. The Steelers appeared to have momentum on their side as they drove down the field with only less than two minutes left in regulation. A poor snap and a vicious Broncos pass rush put a halt to that momentum and the game went into overtime. This is where LeBeau made an absolutely horrendous error in judgement.
LeBeau had paid careful attention to the Bronco's pattern of play calling all game. All too frequently, the Broncos handed the ball off to McGahee on first down. Knowing this, LeBeau had the box stacked with nearly the entire defense just prior to the snap. As a result, the relatively slow members of the Steeler secondary found themselves chasing the Broncos biggest receiving playmaker rather than taking an angle on him and tackling him the way they would have been able to do had they been sitting further back in coverage. One quick footrace and stiff arm later, Broncos knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs and pulled out a win in a game they were widely assumed to lose.
The biggest question remaining, however, is whether or not such a spectacular first round upset win will have any bearing on the outcome of next weeks difficult matchup against the Patriots in New England. The biggest things Tebow gained from beating the Steelers are self-confidence and increased confidenced from his teammates and coaching staff. It's entirely probable that the Broncos coaches will look to use what Tebow did successfully and try to duplicate it against a defense that allowed far more passing yards and points per game than the Steelers during regular season. The offensive line in combination with the ability to scramble gave Tim Tebow a ton of time to find open receivers, and when he did, he was accurate with deep passes. When he didn't find anyone open, he was still able to run for substantial yardage or wisely throw the ball away at times. I'm actually quite condifent in Tebow's ability to score on the Patriots...but then again, many teams have scored 20+ points on the Patriots (including the Broncos) and still lost the game.
The reason, of course, is the sophisticated high powered passing attack of the Patriots coupled with the solid running game of Benjarvus Green-Ellis. I'm far from a Patriot fan, but one has to marvel at the play of their two young tight ends and the amazing play-making ability of Wes Welker. At the helm of the vaunted Patriots' offense is, of course, Tom Brady. Brady, though not successful in his last two playoff appearances, is no stranger to post-season success. Brady has a cannon of an arm and the ability to score rapidly when it would appear as though his team has already lost a game. I'll refer you back to September 14, 2009 when the Patriots hosted the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo led 24-10 late in the 4th quarter and Tom Brady, with the aid of a Buffalo Bills' fumbled kick off return, scored two touchdowns with one successful 2 point conversion in the final 2:06 of the game. Think about that for a minute. Just when you think the Patriots are about to lose, they score more in the last two minutes and 6 seconds of the game than they did for the first 57 minutes and 54 seconds. THAT is what Tim Tebow is up against. One can not stay content to get a lead on the Patriots and simply sit on it hoping that you'll hold them for the rest of the game. Consider the last time the Miami Dolphins played the Patriots a few weeks ago. The Dolphins led the Patriots 17-0 at halftime and ended up losing 27-24. This is simply what the Patriots do. They haven't won every game this season, but at 13-3 they haven't had too many losses.
Ultimately, I believe we can expect a closer game than the last meeting of the Broncos and Patriots, but it'll take a LOT of Tebow magic to score enough points to keep up with the Patriots. The Broncos are going to have to study what the Steelers and Giants did to beat the Patriots, and hope they can find a way to force turnovers and control the clock to keep Brady off the field. I wish the Broncos the best of luck, but I won't bet money on them winning this one.
Anyone paying close attention to the Steelers' defense during Sunday night's game could see that the Steelers were committed to stopping the running game of the Broncos. The Broncos, after all, possessed the #1 ranked rushing attack of the regular season with Willis McGahee having a resurgance in his productivity with nearly 1200 rushing yards and Tebow rushing for 660 yards and 5.4 yards per carry. Tim Tebow also never came close to 300 yards passing, let alone against the NFL's highest rated pass defense. Conventional wisdom would therefore suggest that if you stop the run, you beat the Broncos. Maybe it was the pep talk given to him by one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, or perhaps it was simply the knowledge that the playoffs are truly a do or die situation, but Tim Tebow used every single weapon in his personal arsenal to make the Steeler defense look like just an average group. He ran the ball well and had a beautiful rushing touchdown, he evaded a pass rush that looked as though it would have taken down any other quarterback in the league at times, and he rolled out of the pocket to make deep, high pressure, accurate throws to his speedy wide receivers. In other words...he looked like a more athletic (non-sex offender) version of Ben Roethlistberger with an unorthodox throwing motion. For that, we must give the young guy credit; that was a fantastic performance.
Tebow's performance, however, was made a lot easier by the massive number of major injuries to the Steelers' roster. Injuries to Mendenhall and Roethlisberger took away the Steelers' ability to sustain long drives, keep their defense fresh, and actually find the endzone rather than settling for field goals. Injuries to Keisel, Hampton, and Woodley greatly decreased the Steelers ability to both contain Tebow and put pressure on him. The absence of Ryan Clark proved extremely costly as it meant a serious void in a secondary that had looked quite strong earlier in the season. Suddenly without Clark, Ike Taylor looked woefully underprepared to line up against Demaryius Thomas, and we all know how poor Troy Polamalu is in pass coverage at this point. On top of the injuries, the Steelers defensive coordinator, Dick LeBeau, did something rather unusual: he coordinated a game poorly. LeBeau seemed to have a handle on the game as his defense slowed the Broncos scoring substantially in the second half, limiting Tebow and the Broncos to a single field goal. The Steelers appeared to have momentum on their side as they drove down the field with only less than two minutes left in regulation. A poor snap and a vicious Broncos pass rush put a halt to that momentum and the game went into overtime. This is where LeBeau made an absolutely horrendous error in judgement.
LeBeau had paid careful attention to the Bronco's pattern of play calling all game. All too frequently, the Broncos handed the ball off to McGahee on first down. Knowing this, LeBeau had the box stacked with nearly the entire defense just prior to the snap. As a result, the relatively slow members of the Steeler secondary found themselves chasing the Broncos biggest receiving playmaker rather than taking an angle on him and tackling him the way they would have been able to do had they been sitting further back in coverage. One quick footrace and stiff arm later, Broncos knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs and pulled out a win in a game they were widely assumed to lose.
The biggest question remaining, however, is whether or not such a spectacular first round upset win will have any bearing on the outcome of next weeks difficult matchup against the Patriots in New England. The biggest things Tebow gained from beating the Steelers are self-confidence and increased confidenced from his teammates and coaching staff. It's entirely probable that the Broncos coaches will look to use what Tebow did successfully and try to duplicate it against a defense that allowed far more passing yards and points per game than the Steelers during regular season. The offensive line in combination with the ability to scramble gave Tim Tebow a ton of time to find open receivers, and when he did, he was accurate with deep passes. When he didn't find anyone open, he was still able to run for substantial yardage or wisely throw the ball away at times. I'm actually quite condifent in Tebow's ability to score on the Patriots...but then again, many teams have scored 20+ points on the Patriots (including the Broncos) and still lost the game.
The reason, of course, is the sophisticated high powered passing attack of the Patriots coupled with the solid running game of Benjarvus Green-Ellis. I'm far from a Patriot fan, but one has to marvel at the play of their two young tight ends and the amazing play-making ability of Wes Welker. At the helm of the vaunted Patriots' offense is, of course, Tom Brady. Brady, though not successful in his last two playoff appearances, is no stranger to post-season success. Brady has a cannon of an arm and the ability to score rapidly when it would appear as though his team has already lost a game. I'll refer you back to September 14, 2009 when the Patriots hosted the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo led 24-10 late in the 4th quarter and Tom Brady, with the aid of a Buffalo Bills' fumbled kick off return, scored two touchdowns with one successful 2 point conversion in the final 2:06 of the game. Think about that for a minute. Just when you think the Patriots are about to lose, they score more in the last two minutes and 6 seconds of the game than they did for the first 57 minutes and 54 seconds. THAT is what Tim Tebow is up against. One can not stay content to get a lead on the Patriots and simply sit on it hoping that you'll hold them for the rest of the game. Consider the last time the Miami Dolphins played the Patriots a few weeks ago. The Dolphins led the Patriots 17-0 at halftime and ended up losing 27-24. This is simply what the Patriots do. They haven't won every game this season, but at 13-3 they haven't had too many losses.
Ultimately, I believe we can expect a closer game than the last meeting of the Broncos and Patriots, but it'll take a LOT of Tebow magic to score enough points to keep up with the Patriots. The Broncos are going to have to study what the Steelers and Giants did to beat the Patriots, and hope they can find a way to force turnovers and control the clock to keep Brady off the field. I wish the Broncos the best of luck, but I won't bet money on them winning this one.
Monday, January 9, 2012
What time is it? GAME TIME!
So this is the first of undoubtedly many posts regarding the Ravens and their quest for their second Lombardi Trophy. I am going to operate under the assumption that all of you reading this have been following the NFL religiously this season, and I will trust that you watched the entire wildcard round of the playoffs this last weekend. Ok, now let's get down to the important stuff.
I have had several conversations over the course of the last week with fans of many different teams almost everywhere I go. I can attribute this at least partially to my tendency to wear black and purple as often as my laundry will allow. I plastered my cubicle with Ravens decals and magnets the day after starting my new job to make sure that there is never any question as to the placement of my gridiron allegiance. One major thing stuck in my mind after my conversations with fans of various different teams: most people doubt the Ravens' chances of beating the Patriots in Foxborough.
Beating the Patriots in Foxborough (or anywhere for that matter!) always proves a daunting task. Not only are they well coached, but they are stocked with enough offensive fire power to put double digit points up against just about anyone. This year, however, they lack one thing that proves critical to post-season success year after year...DEFENSE. The Patriots have not only allowed the most passing yards per game (293.9) in the AFC, they have also allowed more points (342) than every other AFC playoff team except their next opponent, the Broncos. The Broncos, however, have a valid excuse for allowing 390 points during the regular season: they lost HALF OF THEIR GAMES. During the Harbaugh/Flacco era, the Ravens are 1-2 against the Patriots. All three of the games played between these two teams during that span have been played in New England. The Patriots, however, have never beaten the Ravens by more than 6 points, and the Ravens have actually outscored the Pats 74-64 over the course of those three recent meetings. For the sake of comparison, let's have a look at the two most recent of these games, shall we?
January 10, 2010 The Playoffs
The Ravens came out swinging with an 83 yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage. That set the tone for the rest of the game as Ed Reed and the Ravens defense intercepted Brady 3 times and held the future hall of famer to 154 passing yards. The Ravens, as I'm sure you all will recall, won 33-14.
What the Ravens did right was run the ball right down the Patriot's throats all day. Ray Rice averaged 7.2 yards per carry and he had two touchdowns while Willis McGahee added another. Terrell Suggs terrified Tom Brady to the point where Brady actually collapsed to the ground and it appeared as though he was ready to curl up in the fetal position if he thought it would have protected him from the wrath of T. Sizzle. The Ravens did not need Joe Flacco to throw the ball much, but when he had to do so, he connected with Mark Clayton on a critical 3rd down conversion to help run out the clock and seal the Patriots playoff doom.
October 17, 2010 Regular Season
At their most recent meeting, the Ravens appeared to have everything in the bag going into the final 10 minutes of the game. They led the Patriots 17-10 and had looked dominant on both offense and defense all game long. The Patriots, however, battled back during the latter 2/3 of the 4th quarter to send the game into overtime. Overtime began with one 3 and out after another for both teams with little progress in either direction. It was not until Tom Brady connected on 3rd down with a newly re-signed Deion Branch that the Patriots got within field goal range to win the game.
What the Ravens did wrong in that game was to stop bringing pressure on Brady late in the game. If you recall, Greg Mattison was a huge proponent of dropping many players into coverage and employing a 3-man rush during the 4th quarter of games. This was ironically termed a "prevent defense". This horrendous strategy failed time and again last season and ultimately led to the end of Mattison's short lived career as the Ravens' defensive coordinator.
What have we learned from all of this? The Ravens dominate teams when they score early, run the ball successful, and bring plenty of pressure to opposing quarterbacks. The Patriots have shown that they cannot stop Ray Rice and the Ravens' rushing attack. The Ravens will undoubtedly run the ball on the Patriots, but in light of the Patriots' horrendous pass defense this season, the Ravens will also utilize their new young receiving options in Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta, and Ed Dickson to compliment Anquan Boldin and the ever-present dump-off option to Ray Rice. The major question that remains is whether or not the Ravens can stop the likes of Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and Deion Branch. They will increase their chances of doing so with a strong showing from Lardarius Webb (who will undoubtedly be lined up across from Wes Welker), Cary Williams, and Jimmy Smith. Ed Reed has shown a great ability to read Tom Brady, and Brady will most certainly avoid frequently throwing over the middle of the field. The Ravens' front seven will also be fresh and healthy and ready to manhandle an injured and broken Patriots' offensive line.
What's that you say? The Ravens have to play the Texans at home first? Yes I know that, but I was simply addressing the topic of discussion that seemed most prevalent in every conversation I've had in the last week regarding the NFL playoffs. The Ravens will, of course, first have to handle their business against T.J. Yates and a team that the Ravens already beat earlier in the season, but I have full faith that they will remain unbeaten at home this season. I expect all of you Ravens fans to wear purple and black when at all possible and appropriate all week. GO RAVENS.
I have had several conversations over the course of the last week with fans of many different teams almost everywhere I go. I can attribute this at least partially to my tendency to wear black and purple as often as my laundry will allow. I plastered my cubicle with Ravens decals and magnets the day after starting my new job to make sure that there is never any question as to the placement of my gridiron allegiance. One major thing stuck in my mind after my conversations with fans of various different teams: most people doubt the Ravens' chances of beating the Patriots in Foxborough.
Beating the Patriots in Foxborough (or anywhere for that matter!) always proves a daunting task. Not only are they well coached, but they are stocked with enough offensive fire power to put double digit points up against just about anyone. This year, however, they lack one thing that proves critical to post-season success year after year...DEFENSE. The Patriots have not only allowed the most passing yards per game (293.9) in the AFC, they have also allowed more points (342) than every other AFC playoff team except their next opponent, the Broncos. The Broncos, however, have a valid excuse for allowing 390 points during the regular season: they lost HALF OF THEIR GAMES. During the Harbaugh/Flacco era, the Ravens are 1-2 against the Patriots. All three of the games played between these two teams during that span have been played in New England. The Patriots, however, have never beaten the Ravens by more than 6 points, and the Ravens have actually outscored the Pats 74-64 over the course of those three recent meetings. For the sake of comparison, let's have a look at the two most recent of these games, shall we?
January 10, 2010 The Playoffs
The Ravens came out swinging with an 83 yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage. That set the tone for the rest of the game as Ed Reed and the Ravens defense intercepted Brady 3 times and held the future hall of famer to 154 passing yards. The Ravens, as I'm sure you all will recall, won 33-14.
What the Ravens did right was run the ball right down the Patriot's throats all day. Ray Rice averaged 7.2 yards per carry and he had two touchdowns while Willis McGahee added another. Terrell Suggs terrified Tom Brady to the point where Brady actually collapsed to the ground and it appeared as though he was ready to curl up in the fetal position if he thought it would have protected him from the wrath of T. Sizzle. The Ravens did not need Joe Flacco to throw the ball much, but when he had to do so, he connected with Mark Clayton on a critical 3rd down conversion to help run out the clock and seal the Patriots playoff doom.
October 17, 2010 Regular Season
At their most recent meeting, the Ravens appeared to have everything in the bag going into the final 10 minutes of the game. They led the Patriots 17-10 and had looked dominant on both offense and defense all game long. The Patriots, however, battled back during the latter 2/3 of the 4th quarter to send the game into overtime. Overtime began with one 3 and out after another for both teams with little progress in either direction. It was not until Tom Brady connected on 3rd down with a newly re-signed Deion Branch that the Patriots got within field goal range to win the game.
What the Ravens did wrong in that game was to stop bringing pressure on Brady late in the game. If you recall, Greg Mattison was a huge proponent of dropping many players into coverage and employing a 3-man rush during the 4th quarter of games. This was ironically termed a "prevent defense". This horrendous strategy failed time and again last season and ultimately led to the end of Mattison's short lived career as the Ravens' defensive coordinator.
What have we learned from all of this? The Ravens dominate teams when they score early, run the ball successful, and bring plenty of pressure to opposing quarterbacks. The Patriots have shown that they cannot stop Ray Rice and the Ravens' rushing attack. The Ravens will undoubtedly run the ball on the Patriots, but in light of the Patriots' horrendous pass defense this season, the Ravens will also utilize their new young receiving options in Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta, and Ed Dickson to compliment Anquan Boldin and the ever-present dump-off option to Ray Rice. The major question that remains is whether or not the Ravens can stop the likes of Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and Deion Branch. They will increase their chances of doing so with a strong showing from Lardarius Webb (who will undoubtedly be lined up across from Wes Welker), Cary Williams, and Jimmy Smith. Ed Reed has shown a great ability to read Tom Brady, and Brady will most certainly avoid frequently throwing over the middle of the field. The Ravens' front seven will also be fresh and healthy and ready to manhandle an injured and broken Patriots' offensive line.
What's that you say? The Ravens have to play the Texans at home first? Yes I know that, but I was simply addressing the topic of discussion that seemed most prevalent in every conversation I've had in the last week regarding the NFL playoffs. The Ravens will, of course, first have to handle their business against T.J. Yates and a team that the Ravens already beat earlier in the season, but I have full faith that they will remain unbeaten at home this season. I expect all of you Ravens fans to wear purple and black when at all possible and appropriate all week. GO RAVENS.
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