I don't pretend to be objective in my analysis of the upcoming AFC championship game between the Ravens and Patriots. Claiming objectivity would be a total farce and maybe cause me to lose the respect of my current and growing readership. I will, however, do my best to approach my analysis with as little bias and as much honesty as a devout Ravens fan could hope to muster against a team that I hate almost as much as the Steelers. After all, the Ravens are not invincible, and much of the fanbase appears uneasy after such an unconvincing offensive performance against the Houston Texans in the divisional round of the playoffs last Sunday. The Patriots offer almost a polar opposite challenge to the Ravens in contrast to the Texans. Unlike the divisional round, the Ravens will not have the heavy benefit of homefield advantage, nor will they face a rookie quarterback with less than half of a season's games under his belt. ThePatriots-Ravens game will, nevertheless, involve some intriguing favorable and unfavorable matchups for each team, and for that reason this game will be very tough to predict. Let's break it down:
I have heard some people saying that this game will pit Brady versus Flacco, and in that regard the Patriots have an advantage. This is true that Brady is better than Flacco by far, but Brady will not be matched up against Flacco. He and his vaunted group of receivers will, instead, be matched up against the Ravens pass defense which ranked 4th in the NFL during the regular season. The Ravens secondary boasts future hall-of-famer Ed Reed and has a hard-hitting strong safety, Bernard Pollard, and solid speedy and physical group of young cornerbacks in Lardarius Webb, Cary Williams, and Jimmy Smith. Flacco and his receivers, by contrast, will be matched up against possibly the worst pass defense in the NFL this year. Patriots' cornerbacks Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty have both given up alarming amounts of yardage this year despite Arrington's steller 7 interceptions. Starting safeties Patrick Chung and James Ihedigbo haven't exactly had tremendous success shutting down opposing pass offenses down either. I would love to speculate which Patriots corner will be matched up with Torrey Smith and which will be matched up with Anquan Boldin, but the Patriots play more of a zone scheme which would make such speculations irrelevant.
The Ravens secondary, though highly ranked and battle tested, will undoubtedly have its hands full with the Patriots receivers. The Patriots wide receivers won't have tremendous success in a foot race against the Ravens' cornerbacks, but straight away track speed isn't what makes Wes Welker great. Welker caught for over 1500 yards this season and is the only player in NFL history to have 3 or more seasons of at least 110 catches. Welker simply finds weakenesses in defenses and uses crisp route running ability, good lateral quickness, and surehanded catching ability to wreak havok on opposing teams. Brady's quick release allows Welker to consistently move the chains with short and intermediate catches.
Both Wes Welker and the Patriots other starting wide receiver, Deion Branch, are both 5'9" and don't pose height mismatches against Cary Williams (6'1"), Jimmy Smith (6'2"), or even Lardarius Webb (5'10"), but what Welker and Branch lack in stature is more than made up for by the Patriots' big, physical, spectacular tight ends. Rob Gronkowski is currently enjoying one of the best seasons of a tight end in the history of the NFL. In only his second season in the NFL, Gronkowski has amassed 1327 regular season receiving yards and 17 regular season touchdowns. Combine that with 3 amazing touchdowns and 145 yards gained through the air in the divisional round of the playoffs, and you get a season with close to 1500 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns.
What's even scarier than a tight end who has piled up close to 1500 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns?? Well that's simple: the Patriots have TWO amazing tight ends...not one. Aaron Hernandez does not have as many receiving yards and touchdowns as Gronkowski, but the young man is certainly no slouch. Hernandez accumulated 965 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns this season counting the first playoff game. Both tight ends, therefore, totalled a mind-boggling 2437 receiving yards, and 28 touchdowns thus far! As I alluded to earlier, both tight ends create height and physicality missmatches with almost everyone in the Ravens secondary. Rob Gronkowski, in particular, is 6'6" 265 pounds and Aaron Hernandez is 6'1" 245 pounds. These two young men combine size, athleticism, and great hands to help make the Patriots the most arguably the most dominant offense in the NFL this season.
The Ravens, in order to combat the efforts of a stellar Patriots' receiving corps, must harass Tom Brady to no end and play man coverage. I have no doubt that the Ravens will be able to take away the deep pass as the Ravens' secondary outmatches the Patriots' receiving corps in speed, but the Patriots have the power to use quick passes to march downfield at an astounding rate. To take away quick passes, the Ravens' front 7 will have to bully the Patriots inconsistent offensive line. This could be a problem for the Ravens as the extra bye week appears to have rejuvenated Brady's pass protection. Terrell Suggs has been quiet as of late, and if the Ravens hope to win in Foxborough, Suggs and his pass rushing teammates (Pernell McPhee, Cory Redding, Haloti Ngata, and Paul Kruger) MUST hit Brady hard, early, and often.
Though not nearly as explosive as that of the Patriots, the Ravens offense does boast an array of weapons used to win not 1, not 2, but 7 games against playoff teams this season. The Ravens center their offense around Ray Rice. Rice, as I'm sure most of you already know, led the NFL in all purpose yards from scrimmage this year with over 2000. Rice also had a career high 15 touchdowns. Little Ray displayed his playmaking ability during the last playoff meeting between these two teams two years ago as he sprinted 80 yards on the first play from scrimmage for a touchdown that stunned everyone in Gillette Stadium. Rice averaged 4.7 yards per carry during the regular season and that statistic is far more impressive when one considers that the Ravens played 8 games against top 10 rush defenses this season. Ray Rice is now one of two players in NFL history to have multiple seasons with both 1200 yards rushing and 700 yards receiving.
To compliment Rice, the Ravens start a newly recovered and rejuvinated Anquan Boldin and a speedy Torrey Smith at wide receiver. Smith has had a record setting rookie season for the Ravens with 7 touchdowns (beating Jamaal Lewis' rookie record of 6) and 850 yards on 51 receptions. Smith has shown an ability to get behind most secondaries as he appears to have a second gear of speed that he turns on late in his route to leave corners and safeties in his rear view. Smith's biggest weakness remains his hands. He made some impressive catches away from his body this season, but has dropped a large number of passes that could have been turned into touchdowns with his break-away speed. Boldin has had an uneven season. At times he has shined brilliantly, but he also dropped catchable balls at critical moments. Boldin recently revealed that he played most of the season on a torn mensicus, and after his rehabilitation Boldin returned in the first game of the playoffs with 4 solid catches for 73 yards and a strong 18.1 yards per catch. Boldin's physical presence and hands coupled with his recently regained health will undoubtedly created matchup problems in the Patriots' lackluster secondary.
Possibly the biggest set of questions going into Sunday's AFC matchup will be the performance of both the Ravens' and Patriots' offensive and defensive lines. If you had asked me a few weeks ago how the Ravens offensive line would fare against the Patriots defensive line, I probably would have told you something to the effect of "the Pats' D line poses little threat to the big athletic Ravens' O line." At the same time I probably would have mentioned that the Ravens defensive line would physically dominate the Patriots offensive line en route to several violent sacks of Tom Brady. After the first week in the playoffs, however, I can't be so sure. The Patriots defensive line appeared strong as it put substantial pressure on Tim Tebow, and both sides of the Ravens line appeared outclasses by the opposing lines of the Houston Texans. The Texans, however, boast possibly the strongest offensive line in the NFL, and their defensive line has looked strong and ferocious for the past two weeks. I must conclude that the Ravens lines should have at least a reasonable deal of success, but I would be surprised if the Patriots' lines give them a good fight.
Most sports commentators and pundits seem to favor the Patriots in this matchup. They point to the fact that the Ravens have gone 4-4 on the road and the Patriots have gone 7-1 at home during the regular season. Many Ravens fans would point out that the Patriots ended up with an incredibly easy schedule and lost the only two games they played against teams that finished the season with a winning record, the Steelers and Giants. Ravens fans will also proudly remind you that the Ravens are 7-0 versus teams that went to the playoffs this season with big road wins against the Steelers and Bengals. There is truly too much to be processed and analyzed for one blog post so I will continue evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of each team tomorrow. I'll do a thorough analysis of Flacco and Brady as well as an evaluation of the recent performance of each team's linebacker corps. So hang tight, and as always, Go Ravens!
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