This may sound like a strange question to some because of the fact that the Saints won a superbowl two years ago, but can the heavily favored Saints actually go thousands of miles across the country to one of the windiest stadiums in the NFL and beat one of the NFL's stingiest, toughest, defenses? This blogger believes that they could...but probably won't.
I hear and read on almost a daily basis about how "hot" the Saints are right now, and they certainly have some impressive wins as of late. Drew Brees and company are, after all, 13-3 and have won their last 9 games including last week's playoff rout of the Detroit Lions. No one can deny the sheer dominance of the Saints' offense and seemingly effortless way Drew Brees drives his offense over opposing defenses. There is, however, a stark contrast between the aformentioned offensive dominance at home in the Superdome and the still effective but far more pedestrian offensive road performance of this team. At home the Saints were undefeated and averaged a whopping 41.125 points per game during the regular season. That average would even be slightly higher counting their playoff victory over the Lions. In away games, however, the Saints went 5-3 and averaged 27.25 points per game. Such a disparity is certainly not uncommon as winning on the road in the NFL typically proves to be a difficult task. The Ravens, for example, are also undefeated at home and 4-4 on the road this year. The big difference is that the Ravens actually get to play at home this weekend against a team they already beat at home, and the Saints must make a long trip to the west coast in an environment far less conducive to big passing numbers for a team that typically plays well in a dome.
One might say that the average of 27.25 points per game on the road is usually enough to win most games, but the Saints also allowed an average of 24.5 points per game on the road which leaves a razor thin margin of victory from a statisical standpoint. The Saints win, on average, by less than a field goal on the road. The teams that the Saints have played on the road this year haven't been particularly challenging either with the exception of the Packers. The Saints, like the Ravens, lost a couple of letdown games against bottom of the barrel teams with losses to the Buccaneers and Rams. Even in their road wins, the Saints sometimes just barely squeaked by mediocre opponents such as the Carolina Pathers (30-27) and the Tennessee Titans (22-17).
Another equally important set of statistics to consider is the performance of the San Francisco 49ers at home. The 49ers are as close to an opposite but equal version of the Saints as one can find in the NFC. The 49ers rely far less on the passing game, and instead turn to stout, unyielding defense and solid run game. Alex Smith is no Drew Brees, but his passing touchdown to interception ratio (17-5) is phenomenal and has resulted in a 90.7 passer rating for the regular season. What the 49ers lack in offensive firepower they make up for in impressively consistent defense. Over the course of the entire regular season, the 49ers allowed an astounding 14.3 points per game. At home, the 49ers allowed a staggering average 10.875 points per game. They also beat their fair share of playoff teams with wins over the Steelers, Giants, Lions, and Bengals. Frank Gore has allowed the 49ers to control the clock with over 1200 yards rushing and averaging 4.8 yards per carry. The passing defense of the 49ers was not nearly as effective as the rush defense, but what the 49ers gave up in passing yardage they made up for with turnovers. The 49ers as a team had 23 interceptions to compliment their 20 forced fumbles. If all of those statistics weren't enough to convince you of the 49ers favorable odds of beating the Saints in San Francisco then consider this: the 49ers' margin of victory at home is 16.75 points as opposed to the Saints' margin of victory on the road of 2.75 points.
Season-long statistics are valuable tools in making educated analysis about the probable outcome of games, but they certainly don't give the analyst or sports fan everything they need to know to accurately predict the future. What a team did in the first half of the season, for example, may not be indicative of how they play down the stretch or in the playoffs. The Saints, for example, lost to one of the worst teams to ever enter the playoffs in the Seatle Seahawks last year. Another great example is the fact that the Patriots have had great regular season success in the last 3 seasons, but they're 0-2 in the playoffs during that timespan and lost both of those playoff games to teams that they beat during the regular season (the Ravens and Jets). The point is that the Saints could absolutely light up the 49ers en route to the NFC championship, but I simply don't like the odds. As always, GO RAVENS!
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