My predictions for week 12 were solid but certainly not perfect. I went 10-6 and then correctly predicted a Falcons win last night to improve to 71-29 on the year. Week 13 doesn't have any games that will decide who leads a division, but there are still some decent rivalry games. It started last night with a sound beating of the Saints by the Falcons in Atlanta. Yeah, Atlanta is going to win that division without question, but they were still facing the only team that beat them so far this season. There will be two NFC East showdowns, but only one of them will be worth watching. The Eagles are broken in spirit and in personnel and have little chance of beating a mediocre Cowboys team. The Redskins and Giants, however, should provide each other with tough competition. The last time these two teams faced was in the Meadowlands early in the season and the game came down to an unlikely touchdown pass and run to Victor Cruz to win the game for the Giants. This time the game will be in Landover, MD and both teams are coming off of big wins. The Redskins don't have a great record, but they didn't have a great record last year and still managed to sweep the Giants. The Packers will be playing the Vikings, and the Texans will go to Tennessee to face the Titans in what could be a closer game than many people expect. New England head to Miami to face the Dolphins, and I truly hope the Fins make that game interesting. What ordinarily is touted as the biggest, most physical rivalry in the NFL, however, simply doesn't feel as critical or pivitol as in previous seasons.
The Steelers will limp into Baltimore on Sunday to face their most hated rival in a venue where the home team hasn't lost in two years. Two years ago, the Steelers beat the Ravens in Baltimore, and they were the last team to do so. The Ravens have since overtaken the Steelers as the clear-cut division leader, and appear poised to sweep the Steelers and the entire AFC North for the second year in a row. Ben Roethlisberger will not play this weekend, but even if he did, his level play likely wouldn't be up to par with that of the middle of this season. The Steelers defense is still strong and will get back a player that it once could not win games without: Troy Polamalu. Those days are over as the Steelers' secondary has actually looked vastly stronger this season without Polamalu. Troy had become a liability in pass coverage for a few years now, but he made a couple of spectacularly memorable plays at the line of scrimmage in 2010 that propelled him to a Defensive Player of the Year award. Since then, his presence has done little to scare the Ravens who outscored the Steelers 58-27 last season. Lamarr Woodley is not going to play on Sunday and that will offset any possible advantage gained by the return of Polamalu. Woodley is a fantastic pass rusher. His replacement, Jason Worilds, has performed well with two sacks in the last couple of games, but Woodley is definitely a big step up.
You would think that Ravens fans would be excited by the strong odds in favor of their team trouncing their most hated rivals. I work 3 blocks away from Camden yards, and I can tell you that there simply isn't a feeling in the city that a major battle is about to be waged. I was the only one in my office proudly wearing a Ravens jersey today, and at no point this week have I heard a single person arguing with the lone Steelers fan about the possible outcome of a game that is often decided by only 3 points. That's probably a big reason that this game doesn't feel the same--even Steelers fans aren't predicting a win for their team this time around.
Ultimately, the best part of this rivarly has been obnoxious Steelers fans. Their team has been quite successful in the last 7 years. The Steelers frustrated the Ravens to no end for the first three years of the Flacco-Harbaugh era, and Steelers fans made sure to be quite vocal about it to people such as myself. We had to hear that awful song by Wiz Khalifa ad nauseum, and almost nothing was more annoying than hear Steelers fans ask "got rings?" as though we don't hear enough of that B.S. from Yankees fans. Yes, being a Ravens fan was disappointing for the first few years of the Flacco era...but then came opening day of 2011.
The Ravens beat the Steelers down in a fashion that Pittsburgh simply didn't anticipate and simply wasn't equipped to handle. The Ravens then swept the Steelers with a thrilling last minute comeback victory in Pittsburgh that squashed the Steelers' hopes of possibly getting hopefield advantage through the playoffs. Steelers' fans still made idiotic statements such as "come see us in the playoffs", but that never happened because the Steelers were knocked out of the first round by a quarterback with the lowest competion percentage in NFL playoff history. Yes, nothing was sweeter than finally being able to proudly celebrate utter dominance over a team that had historically manhandled our beloved team. A once angry rivalry has now been reduced to just another game that the Ravens should probably win at home. I never thought I'd say this, but I miss Big Ben and cocky Steelers fans...come back...I need you! Baltimore needs you!! I'll always relish in the Ravens beating the Steelers, but let's hope this game is exciting one way or another.
WEEK 13 NFL PREDICTIONS
JAGUARS AT BILLS- The Jaguars have a new look with Chad Henne as their starting QB. They also just acquired all-pro D lineman Jason Babin though he may not immediately be a factor with less than a week of practice with his new team. MY PREDICTION: JAGUARS 31-23.
SEAHAWKS AT BEARS- This should be a competitive matchup, but the Seahawks are missing starting defensive players due to suspensions and the Bears have Jay Cutler back and in good form. MY PREDICTION: BEARS 24-17.
49ERS AT RAMS- These teams tied last time they met a few weeks ago. The 49ers have since become more dynamic with Colin Kaepernick as quarterback and should have an upper hand despite this game being played in St. Louis. MY PREDICTION: 49ERS 26-20.
PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS- I would love to watch the Patriots lose this game. That, unfortunately, will not happen. Man I hope I'm somehow wrong about this. MY PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 37-21.
CARDINALS AT JETS- The Jets will be looking to redeem themselves after an embarrassing loss. If there's one thing the Jets have done this year it's put together a solid win here and there to puntucate their otherwise impressive string of losses. MY PREDICTION: JETS 20-13.
COLTS AT LIONS- Many analysts are predicting a Lions win after watching them lose a game that they should have legitimately won on Thanksgiving Day. Their reasoning is sound as the three out of the four Colts' losses have come on the road. The Lions, however, have not exactly enjoyed an incredible homefield advantage this year, and I think the Colts are a better team overall. This should prove a nail-biter. MY PREDICTION: COLTS 33-27.
VIKINGS AT PACKERS- Packers will get a boost with Greg Jennings back and they should bounce back after a big loss last Sunday. MY PREDICTION: PACKERS 28-13.
TEXANS AT TITANS- The Texans haven't looked good in the last two games, but they'll be coming off of an extended period of rest and that should provide a much needed boost to their defense. They won't beat the Patriots next week, but the Texans should win this game. The Titans simply don't have the defense to stop the Texans' offense, but this could be a shootout. MY PREDICTION: TEXANS 34-26.
PANTHERS AT CHIEFS- The Chiefs have lost some hard fought games against very good teams. They could win this one over a disappointing Panthers squad. This is a tough pick because the Panthers appear to be a stronger team in statistical categories, but they are near the bottom in the league in rush defense and running the ball is what the Chiefs do best...besides lose. The Panthers aren't a great road team in that they only have a pair of road wins--but that's two thirds of their total wins. All of the road games the Panthers have lost have been close losses against solid or good teams. In fact, as I look over the Panthers' schedule, they appear to have just about the toughest schedule in the NFL. They lost to the Falcons, Buccanners, and Bears by a combined 10 points. MY PREDICTION: PANTHERS 28-17.
BUCCANEERS AT BRONCOS- The Bucs don't have the secondary to stop Peyton Manning. This game is just a mismatch even though the Bucs are a good team. I hope they make a game of it, but I don't expect them to do so. MY PREDICTION: BRONCOS 24-16.
BROWNS AT RAIDERS- The Browns are on the rise and Brandon Weeden plays better on the road than at home. The return of Joe Haden makes this Browns defense simply too much for a slumping Carson Palmer. MY PREDICTION: BROWNS 21-17.
BENGALS AT CHARGERS- The Bengals have certainly looked better in recent weeks, but the Chargers will be looking to bounce back after a heartbreaking (for San Diego) loss to the Ravens. Eric Weddle has practiced on a limited basis after getting a concussion from a monster block by Anquan Boldin on the famous 4 and 29 play but is questionable. The Chargers defense did look pretty good against the Ravens and limited them to 16 points in an overtime battle. When I began this paragraph, I was ready to give this one to the Bengals, but something tells me the Chargers won't let this one get away from them. I'm not too terribly confident about this one, but here goes. MY PREDICTION: CHARGERS 24-21.
STEELERS AT RAVENS- No Ben, no chance. The Steelers defense looked good against the Ravens on the road...but then again so did the Chiefs defense. Steelers defense without Lamarr Woodley will struggle against a Ravens offense at home with a healthy Dennis Pitta. This Ravens defense has also played extremely well on the road after the bye week and they should be even better in Baltimore. Believe it or not, I hope it's a closer game than this, but I don't believe it will be. MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 31-9.
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- Cowboys will beat an Eagles team that is down about half of its starters from the beginning of the season. MY PREDICTION: COWBOYS 28-10.
GIANTS AT REDSKINS- The Giants and Redskins are both coming off of big wins. The Giants looked more dominant than the Redskins and their defense appears to have regained its form from the last post-season. The Giants also seem to perform rather well on the road. I expect Eli to turn it on in this one during the final push for the playoffs. Pass-rushing RG3 won't be an easy task though. MY PREDICTION: GIANTS 24-20.
I can't stress enough how disappointed I am that Big Ben won't be playing this weekend. There is, however, a silver lining. The Steelers are making the right decision by sitting Ben as an extra week to rehab will hopefully mean he'll be able to return the following week to make a push for a wildcard spot. This means that the Steelers could potentially come to Baltimore in the playoffs where the Ravens will hopefully get a chance to finally beat their rivals in the playoffs with Ben at the helm. Either way, the Ravens should end this week 10-2 with plenty of momentum heading into their upcoming beltway battle against the Skins! As always GO RAVENS!!
Friday, November 30, 2012
Thursday, November 29, 2012
WEEK 13 NFL POWER RANKINGS AND THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
ESPN's Skip Bayless was at it again. He discredited the Ravens' 9-2 season and stated it to be "fraudulent" as the Ravens only barely beat the Patriots, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers, and Steelers. The problem with this logic is that many great teams in the NFL have numerous games in which they barely beat poor or average teams. No great teams simply dominate every single game they play start to finish in this era of football. By Skip's logic, the 2008 Steelers were fraudulent after only barely squeaking by the Ravens twice in the regular season. Or what about the 2007 Patriots? They were one of the greatest scoring offenses and most dominant regular season teams of all time, but they only barely beat a losing Ravens team 27-24, the Eagles 31-28, and finished the season with a 38-35 win over the eventual Superbowl champ Giants. Or what about both teams that are currently tied at 10-1 for the best record in the NFL? Seven of the ten Falcons wins have been by a touchdown or less, and the Houston Texans won their last two games in overtime against losing teams...hell, the first of those two games was at home against a team with only a single win on the season up to that point!
The fact is that you could run down the list of other supposedly elite teams and you'll find close games and even losses to mediocre teams. The Patriots, for example, only barely beat the Bills 37-31, they only barely beat the Jets in overtime in Foxboro (though they certainly made up for it the second time around). Then there's the 49ers who barely beat the Seahawks 13-6, tied the loser Rams 24-24, got absolutely destroyed by the Giants 26-3, and lost handedly to a Vikings team that ranks 30th in the NFL in passing yards per game. Lastly we come to Skip's precious Steelers. The Steelers aren't 9-2, but a lot of people will blame that on Big Ben's absence. In Big Ben's presence, however, the Steelers only barely beat an Eagles team with a decimated offensive line, they lost to a losing Titans team 26-23, beat the Bengals by a touchdown, squeaked by the then slumping Giants, and lost to the Oakland Raiders 34-31. Then, with Ben out the Steelers lost to the Ravens 13-10 in Pittsburgh and then lost in embarrassing fashion to the Browns last week in Cleveland.
The point is that the nature of the NFL is such that teams do what it takes to win games. Sometimes teams have decisive victories, but often times victories are gained by a touchdown, a field goal, or just a single point. Skip denounced the Ravens for only barely beating the Patriots...but it's the Patriots. I'm sure he didn't denounce the Patriots last year when they barely beat the Ravens after a missed field goal that would have sent the game into overtime. The point is that the Patriots won that playoff game. They didn't cheat or get bogus calls in their favor. This season, the Ravens beat the Patriots...just barely with the closest field goal I've ever seen that has ever been deemed to be good. Whether you win by an inch or a mile, however, you did better than the team you were up against in the end, and that means a big fat W. I really think the public needs to skip Bayless.
With all of that said, one cannot simply look at numerical wins and losses when deciding the order of power rankings. The analyst must take into account scores, opponents, current injuries, and recent levels of performance to accurately rank teams from week to week. It's not an exact science, more just a reaction. Power rankings mean absolutely nothing in deciding playoff seeding so it's all just for fun. Enjoy!
WEEK 13 NFL POWER RANKINGS
1. 49ERS- I put the 49ers at the top of this list not because they have the best record or even the second best record in the league. They don't. Their current ranking is based on how the 49ers have played since they began starting Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. The 49ers absolutely flattened the vaunted Bear's defense during a 32-7 win in week 11, and they soundly beat the Saints 31-21 in New Orleans. The Saints had looked quite strong recently winning 5 out of their last 6 before facing the 49ers at home. Kaepernick isn't RG3 or Andrew Luck, but he's probably more talented than Alex Smith. Whatever he is, he's good enough to push this team to a new level where it dominates good teams in tough situations. He'll be tested against Patriots and Seahawks in a few weeks, so the 49ers will have plenty of opportunity to defend this ranking and a achieve a high seed in the playoffs.
2. PATRIOTS- The Patriots have won 7 out of their last 8 games, and have recently put on a scoring clinic as they've averaged 47.5 points per game in their last 4 games. Yes, they have 3 losses, and yes they have a poor pass defense, but what recently impressed me with this team was their ability to lose two of their most important offensive players (Logan Mankins and Rob Gronkowski) without seeing even a slight dip in their level of play. This Patriots team is 10th in the league in rushing yards allowed which helps to preserve game clock when they need it and give the Pats more opportunities to drive down the field and score. They are also 6th in rushing offense which makes them a far more balanced and dangerous offense than they were last season. On top of all of this, they have averaged 38.3 points on the road this season which will make them probably the most dangerous road team in the AFC down the stretch. I hate the Patriots and I'm happy Ravens beat them, but, man, they have my respect.
3. FALCONS- The Falcons are 10-1 and I'm sure many of you think they should be ranked a spot or two higher in light of that. I would agree if it weren't for their strength of schedule. The Falcons have only played two teams this entire season that currently possess winning records. They edged the Broncos early on in the season when the Broncos were struggling to find their footing and get adjusted to Peyton Manning, and they came back to beat the now 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccanneers this weekend 24-23. With that said, they only have a single loss to their division rivals (the Saints), and they have a chance tonight to avenge that loss and possibly move back up to #2 or #1 on next week's power rankings depending on the score.
4. RAVENS- The Ravens haven't blown teams out on the road like the Patriots, and their offense has truly struggled away from M and T Bank Stadium. They have, however, won 9 games and have only been convincingly beaten once. Most recently, the Ravens defense has been the best in the league in the last 4 weeks following their bye. The Ravens defense, like the Patriots offense, has found ways to become and stay effective despite the loss of two of their key players (Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb). Joe Flacco has been labelled as inconsistent, and many have stated that the Ravens never truly established an identity. I disagree wholeheartedly. The Ravens identity is a team that is tough to beat because of its ability to win in different ways. They can win in an offensive shootout against the Patriots when the defense struggled early, they can win in a defensive struggle against the Steelers when the offense was having a hard time finding its rhythm. Most importantly, Joe Flacco has, once again, displayed an uncanny ability to put together game winning drives. He led impressive drives to beat the Patriots, the Browns, and the Chargers, When the pressure is on, Joe Flacco goes off. That's the Ravens identity, they find ways to win.
6. TEXANS- The Texans used to be the strongest team in the league. At 10-1, there's an argument to be made that they're still the strongest team in the league. Recently, however, their defense has fallen from the elite status that it held not long ago. They went into overtime in the last two games against losing teams and they legitimately should have lost the most recent of those two overtime wins. The Texans have a tough schedule going forward. They have to play the Patriots in Foxboro and two games against the Colts. I believe they're lose two out of those three games and only further justify this ranking or possibly a lower one. I know they beat the Ravens, but recently the Texans have displayed serious vulnerability that much better teams will almost certainly exploit. Their offense was still strong enough to keep them in the last two games, but that was against two rather poor defenses. The Texans better revamp their defense quickly or their impressive season will end in disaster.
6. BRONCOS- The Broncos should possibly be higher on this list than the Texans, but I said before that I wanted to see how they would do without Willis McGahee. Without Willis, the Broncos appeared far less dominant in their 8 point win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Peyton Manning and an elite defense that has a knack for creating turnovers makes this team a unit that should still be feared by everyone they play, but they lost a great weapon when the former Raven went down for the season with an injury. This offense is now officially one dimensional, but the one dimension it possesses is still led by the greatest quarterback of our time.
7. BEARS- Jay Cutler's return confirmed my contention from a couple of weeks ago that his team's offense and defense are largely dependent on his presence. This team rises and falls with its quarterback. Their 28-10 win against the Vikings was a nice bounce-back win after losing to two of the league's top teams in a row, but it's not enough to put them into the top 5 on this list. Another solid win against the Seahawks this weekend and then a home win against the Packers in a few weeks will solidify this team's place in the playoffs and move them way up in my rankings.
8. GIANTS- The Giants are racing back up this list after a total beatdown of the Packers following their bye week. This team is up and down at times, but I put them at 7th on this list because of their ability to absolutely dominate other NFC playoff contenders. Eli and the G-men seem to be able to turn it on against the toughest of opponents when it really counts. Expect this team to win at least a playoff game or two.
9. PACKERS- This team looked unstoppable in the regular season last year with a 15-1 record. They were then soundly thumped by the Giants in the playoffs and haven't been the same team since. At 7-4 they're still a contender, and Aaron Rodgers is still having a solid season. The Packers defense has looked poor, especially without Clay Matthews, but the offense is about to get one big weapon back this week with the return of Greg Jennings. I expect them to move up my rankings down the stretch, but I'll always be wary of putting them too high without a solid running game and defense.
10. BENGALS- This team has quietly found its rhythm after a rather rocky start. The Bengals' defense is now 8th in the NFL in average passing yards allowed per game. The Bengals have won their last 3 straight games in impressive fashion by beating down a Giants team that the Steelers only barely edged a week earlier, handling a sorry Raiders team, and stomping a Chiefs team on the road that both the Ravens and Steelers struggled to edge. Andy Dalton has, during this time, been extremely efficient as he has scored in all but two of his trips to the redzone. This is a team that could beat out the Steelers for a wildcard spot, and shock the world with two consecutive playoff appearances for the first time in decades for the Bengals.
11. COLTS- This team will likely win 3 out of it's last 5 games to finish 10-6 and secure a wildcard spot. They'll beat the Titans at home, the Chiefs on the road, and they'll either beat the Lions on the road or the Texans at home. Almost all of their wins have been extremely close or else I'd have them ranked higher. Andrew Luck has turned out to be everything that he was built up to be leading up to this season. He now has more passing yards than any other rookie QB in history by this point in the season. I doubt he'll win more than a single playoff game if he wins one at all, but Luck is a QB that the Colts will be able to build around exactly the way they did with Manning. Fear this man.
12. BUCCANEERS- I have to admit that I was sad to see the Bucs lose by a point to the Falcons last week. I still believe they're a good team though, and I believe they have a great shot at proving it in Denver on Sunday. Peyton may feast on their pass defense, but they'll run the ball well enough to limit his opportunities...wait...I gotta save those predictions for tomorrow. Ok well I still have faith in the Bucs as a top 12 team, but they've got a lot of tough opponents coming up and they could very easily miss the playoffs.
THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
SAINTS AT FALCONS- The Saints edged the Falcons last time these two teams met, but that was in New Orleans. I still believe this game will be close, but the Falcons definitely have a powerful homefield advantage whereas the Saints will no longer have theirs tonight. Drew Brees is clearly better than Matt Ryan by leaps and bounds, but the Saints' defense won't be enough to stop the Falcons at home. Matt Ryan has been pretty shakey lately though...hmm I want to say the Saints will upset a Falcons team that hasn't looked particularly dominant recently, but I just can't bet against the Falcons at home. I really hope I'm wrong about this. MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 33-31.
UPDATE ON BIG BEN
If you have not already read, Ben Roethlisberger is reportedly still experiencing pain and difficulty throwing the football. This upsets me as I was looking forward to seeing him suit up and get spanked by Terrell Suggs on live TV. Ben left open the possibility that he could play, but didn't sound optimistic as when he was asked if the biggest concern was pain or arm strength, the quarterback replied "both." There's nothing I want more than a Ravens win, but that win would be oh so much sweeter if Skip Bayless and the rest of the Steelers Nation had no excuse as to why their team lost. Even Troy Polamalu appears as though he'll return for this game, but I actually believe that'll be to the detriment of the Steelers secondary as it has performed far better without him getting burnt in coverage and trucked by Ray Rice. The Steelers will probably say that Ben will be a gametime decision, but I have a feeling that we'll know who is going to play definitively by tomorrow. It sounds pretty certain that the Steelers don't wanna ruin Ben's recovery in a game that they will have little chance of winning no matter who starts. It would be better for the Steelers to take an almost certain loss and have a much healthier Ben return next week than to have Ben risk getting reinjured by a team that has a history of physical aggression towards him. Fun fact: Terrell Suggs has more sacks on Ben Roethlisberger than any entire NFL team. Suggs put it perfectly, "God can have his soul, but his ass belongs to ME." Enjoy the Thursday night game, everyone. And as always GO RAVENS!!
The fact is that you could run down the list of other supposedly elite teams and you'll find close games and even losses to mediocre teams. The Patriots, for example, only barely beat the Bills 37-31, they only barely beat the Jets in overtime in Foxboro (though they certainly made up for it the second time around). Then there's the 49ers who barely beat the Seahawks 13-6, tied the loser Rams 24-24, got absolutely destroyed by the Giants 26-3, and lost handedly to a Vikings team that ranks 30th in the NFL in passing yards per game. Lastly we come to Skip's precious Steelers. The Steelers aren't 9-2, but a lot of people will blame that on Big Ben's absence. In Big Ben's presence, however, the Steelers only barely beat an Eagles team with a decimated offensive line, they lost to a losing Titans team 26-23, beat the Bengals by a touchdown, squeaked by the then slumping Giants, and lost to the Oakland Raiders 34-31. Then, with Ben out the Steelers lost to the Ravens 13-10 in Pittsburgh and then lost in embarrassing fashion to the Browns last week in Cleveland.
The point is that the nature of the NFL is such that teams do what it takes to win games. Sometimes teams have decisive victories, but often times victories are gained by a touchdown, a field goal, or just a single point. Skip denounced the Ravens for only barely beating the Patriots...but it's the Patriots. I'm sure he didn't denounce the Patriots last year when they barely beat the Ravens after a missed field goal that would have sent the game into overtime. The point is that the Patriots won that playoff game. They didn't cheat or get bogus calls in their favor. This season, the Ravens beat the Patriots...just barely with the closest field goal I've ever seen that has ever been deemed to be good. Whether you win by an inch or a mile, however, you did better than the team you were up against in the end, and that means a big fat W. I really think the public needs to skip Bayless.
With all of that said, one cannot simply look at numerical wins and losses when deciding the order of power rankings. The analyst must take into account scores, opponents, current injuries, and recent levels of performance to accurately rank teams from week to week. It's not an exact science, more just a reaction. Power rankings mean absolutely nothing in deciding playoff seeding so it's all just for fun. Enjoy!
WEEK 13 NFL POWER RANKINGS
1. 49ERS- I put the 49ers at the top of this list not because they have the best record or even the second best record in the league. They don't. Their current ranking is based on how the 49ers have played since they began starting Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. The 49ers absolutely flattened the vaunted Bear's defense during a 32-7 win in week 11, and they soundly beat the Saints 31-21 in New Orleans. The Saints had looked quite strong recently winning 5 out of their last 6 before facing the 49ers at home. Kaepernick isn't RG3 or Andrew Luck, but he's probably more talented than Alex Smith. Whatever he is, he's good enough to push this team to a new level where it dominates good teams in tough situations. He'll be tested against Patriots and Seahawks in a few weeks, so the 49ers will have plenty of opportunity to defend this ranking and a achieve a high seed in the playoffs.
2. PATRIOTS- The Patriots have won 7 out of their last 8 games, and have recently put on a scoring clinic as they've averaged 47.5 points per game in their last 4 games. Yes, they have 3 losses, and yes they have a poor pass defense, but what recently impressed me with this team was their ability to lose two of their most important offensive players (Logan Mankins and Rob Gronkowski) without seeing even a slight dip in their level of play. This Patriots team is 10th in the league in rushing yards allowed which helps to preserve game clock when they need it and give the Pats more opportunities to drive down the field and score. They are also 6th in rushing offense which makes them a far more balanced and dangerous offense than they were last season. On top of all of this, they have averaged 38.3 points on the road this season which will make them probably the most dangerous road team in the AFC down the stretch. I hate the Patriots and I'm happy Ravens beat them, but, man, they have my respect.
3. FALCONS- The Falcons are 10-1 and I'm sure many of you think they should be ranked a spot or two higher in light of that. I would agree if it weren't for their strength of schedule. The Falcons have only played two teams this entire season that currently possess winning records. They edged the Broncos early on in the season when the Broncos were struggling to find their footing and get adjusted to Peyton Manning, and they came back to beat the now 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccanneers this weekend 24-23. With that said, they only have a single loss to their division rivals (the Saints), and they have a chance tonight to avenge that loss and possibly move back up to #2 or #1 on next week's power rankings depending on the score.
4. RAVENS- The Ravens haven't blown teams out on the road like the Patriots, and their offense has truly struggled away from M and T Bank Stadium. They have, however, won 9 games and have only been convincingly beaten once. Most recently, the Ravens defense has been the best in the league in the last 4 weeks following their bye. The Ravens defense, like the Patriots offense, has found ways to become and stay effective despite the loss of two of their key players (Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb). Joe Flacco has been labelled as inconsistent, and many have stated that the Ravens never truly established an identity. I disagree wholeheartedly. The Ravens identity is a team that is tough to beat because of its ability to win in different ways. They can win in an offensive shootout against the Patriots when the defense struggled early, they can win in a defensive struggle against the Steelers when the offense was having a hard time finding its rhythm. Most importantly, Joe Flacco has, once again, displayed an uncanny ability to put together game winning drives. He led impressive drives to beat the Patriots, the Browns, and the Chargers, When the pressure is on, Joe Flacco goes off. That's the Ravens identity, they find ways to win.
6. TEXANS- The Texans used to be the strongest team in the league. At 10-1, there's an argument to be made that they're still the strongest team in the league. Recently, however, their defense has fallen from the elite status that it held not long ago. They went into overtime in the last two games against losing teams and they legitimately should have lost the most recent of those two overtime wins. The Texans have a tough schedule going forward. They have to play the Patriots in Foxboro and two games against the Colts. I believe they're lose two out of those three games and only further justify this ranking or possibly a lower one. I know they beat the Ravens, but recently the Texans have displayed serious vulnerability that much better teams will almost certainly exploit. Their offense was still strong enough to keep them in the last two games, but that was against two rather poor defenses. The Texans better revamp their defense quickly or their impressive season will end in disaster.
6. BRONCOS- The Broncos should possibly be higher on this list than the Texans, but I said before that I wanted to see how they would do without Willis McGahee. Without Willis, the Broncos appeared far less dominant in their 8 point win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Peyton Manning and an elite defense that has a knack for creating turnovers makes this team a unit that should still be feared by everyone they play, but they lost a great weapon when the former Raven went down for the season with an injury. This offense is now officially one dimensional, but the one dimension it possesses is still led by the greatest quarterback of our time.
7. BEARS- Jay Cutler's return confirmed my contention from a couple of weeks ago that his team's offense and defense are largely dependent on his presence. This team rises and falls with its quarterback. Their 28-10 win against the Vikings was a nice bounce-back win after losing to two of the league's top teams in a row, but it's not enough to put them into the top 5 on this list. Another solid win against the Seahawks this weekend and then a home win against the Packers in a few weeks will solidify this team's place in the playoffs and move them way up in my rankings.
8. GIANTS- The Giants are racing back up this list after a total beatdown of the Packers following their bye week. This team is up and down at times, but I put them at 7th on this list because of their ability to absolutely dominate other NFC playoff contenders. Eli and the G-men seem to be able to turn it on against the toughest of opponents when it really counts. Expect this team to win at least a playoff game or two.
9. PACKERS- This team looked unstoppable in the regular season last year with a 15-1 record. They were then soundly thumped by the Giants in the playoffs and haven't been the same team since. At 7-4 they're still a contender, and Aaron Rodgers is still having a solid season. The Packers defense has looked poor, especially without Clay Matthews, but the offense is about to get one big weapon back this week with the return of Greg Jennings. I expect them to move up my rankings down the stretch, but I'll always be wary of putting them too high without a solid running game and defense.
10. BENGALS- This team has quietly found its rhythm after a rather rocky start. The Bengals' defense is now 8th in the NFL in average passing yards allowed per game. The Bengals have won their last 3 straight games in impressive fashion by beating down a Giants team that the Steelers only barely edged a week earlier, handling a sorry Raiders team, and stomping a Chiefs team on the road that both the Ravens and Steelers struggled to edge. Andy Dalton has, during this time, been extremely efficient as he has scored in all but two of his trips to the redzone. This is a team that could beat out the Steelers for a wildcard spot, and shock the world with two consecutive playoff appearances for the first time in decades for the Bengals.
11. COLTS- This team will likely win 3 out of it's last 5 games to finish 10-6 and secure a wildcard spot. They'll beat the Titans at home, the Chiefs on the road, and they'll either beat the Lions on the road or the Texans at home. Almost all of their wins have been extremely close or else I'd have them ranked higher. Andrew Luck has turned out to be everything that he was built up to be leading up to this season. He now has more passing yards than any other rookie QB in history by this point in the season. I doubt he'll win more than a single playoff game if he wins one at all, but Luck is a QB that the Colts will be able to build around exactly the way they did with Manning. Fear this man.
12. BUCCANEERS- I have to admit that I was sad to see the Bucs lose by a point to the Falcons last week. I still believe they're a good team though, and I believe they have a great shot at proving it in Denver on Sunday. Peyton may feast on their pass defense, but they'll run the ball well enough to limit his opportunities...wait...I gotta save those predictions for tomorrow. Ok well I still have faith in the Bucs as a top 12 team, but they've got a lot of tough opponents coming up and they could very easily miss the playoffs.
THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
SAINTS AT FALCONS- The Saints edged the Falcons last time these two teams met, but that was in New Orleans. I still believe this game will be close, but the Falcons definitely have a powerful homefield advantage whereas the Saints will no longer have theirs tonight. Drew Brees is clearly better than Matt Ryan by leaps and bounds, but the Saints' defense won't be enough to stop the Falcons at home. Matt Ryan has been pretty shakey lately though...hmm I want to say the Saints will upset a Falcons team that hasn't looked particularly dominant recently, but I just can't bet against the Falcons at home. I really hope I'm wrong about this. MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 33-31.
UPDATE ON BIG BEN
If you have not already read, Ben Roethlisberger is reportedly still experiencing pain and difficulty throwing the football. This upsets me as I was looking forward to seeing him suit up and get spanked by Terrell Suggs on live TV. Ben left open the possibility that he could play, but didn't sound optimistic as when he was asked if the biggest concern was pain or arm strength, the quarterback replied "both." There's nothing I want more than a Ravens win, but that win would be oh so much sweeter if Skip Bayless and the rest of the Steelers Nation had no excuse as to why their team lost. Even Troy Polamalu appears as though he'll return for this game, but I actually believe that'll be to the detriment of the Steelers secondary as it has performed far better without him getting burnt in coverage and trucked by Ray Rice. The Steelers will probably say that Ben will be a gametime decision, but I have a feeling that we'll know who is going to play definitively by tomorrow. It sounds pretty certain that the Steelers don't wanna ruin Ben's recovery in a game that they will have little chance of winning no matter who starts. It would be better for the Steelers to take an almost certain loss and have a much healthier Ben return next week than to have Ben risk getting reinjured by a team that has a history of physical aggression towards him. Fun fact: Terrell Suggs has more sacks on Ben Roethlisberger than any entire NFL team. Suggs put it perfectly, "God can have his soul, but his ass belongs to ME." Enjoy the Thursday night game, everyone. And as always GO RAVENS!!
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
4TH AND 29 REACTION AND STEELERS WEEK COUNTDOWN
HEY DIDDLE DIDDLE...DID HE REALLY MAKE IT??
I've seen message boards on various sites and still photos from chargers fans trying to prove that Ray Rice didn't and couldn't have made it on his famous 4th and 29 play. I'd like to put their doubts and allegations to rest. I've read statements to the effect of "how in the world could the ball be spotted at the 33 and a half yard line when his knee was down just in front of the 35?!?!" The answer to that is quite simple. First, the ball wasn't spotted at the 33 and a half. They ref said it would be verbally, but then proceeded to spot the ball just inches in front of the 34. Beyond that, there was a discrepancy as to where Rice had to be in order to get a first down. Lil' Ray did not need to make it past the 34 to get to a first down as was originally indicated by the unofficial yellow line on TV. Part of the reason that everything took so incredibly long was because the officials had to correct the point from which they needed to measure. Then there are blurry still frames that people have pulled up where they claim Ray's knee was down. It's tough to tell at what point the knee actually makes contact with the ground in those pictures in the way that it was tough to tell if Santonio Holmes second foot was touching the turf or just touching the back of his other foot in the 2009 Superbowl against the Cardinals. One has to assume that Gene Steratore has better angles and crisper views than an incredibly blurry picture by CBS.
Even if you refuse to believe my points, as I'm sure some of you will, there is the matter of there not being enough conclusive evidence to overturn a call on the field. The referees watched the tape ad nauseum, moved the ball back just about an entire yard, determined where exactly it was that they needed to measure from, and then had the crew pull the chains taught... The result was a clear first down. If you still believe that the corrected spot was incorrect, please consider that the play which led to the Chargers' final field goal was clearly bogus, and thus, the game could have been tied at 10 or the Ravens could have gotten the ball back and been given a chance to win in regulation. The call on the field was that Bernard Pollard "led with his helmet" on a hit to a receiver on the sidelines. That receiver was not even close to catching the ball, and more importantly, Bernard Pollard hit the receiver in the middle of his torso--and led with his shoulder. So if Chargers fans want to whine about the refs giving the Ravens a chance to tie the game, consider that the Chargers' final points in regulation came as the result of a penalty that didn't even approach being possibly legitimate.
Ray Rice's play was deemed a first down after careful judgement and deliberation by the crew of referees. They had every angle on the play, and corrected the initial erroneous spot. Regardless of the spot correction, Ray still had enough for a first down because of the careful determination of the spot from which they measured with the chains. This was the play of the season for the Ravens and one that will live in Ravens history as one of the greatest moments in one of the most miraculous comebacks this organization has ever managed.
STEELERS WEEK COUNTDOWN: WILL BEN PLAY?
The Ravens very well may have lost in Pittsburgh had the Steelers been led by a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Though, to be fair, injuries are a part of the game and football is not a game of what-ifs, it's a game of what IS. In this case, Ben was injured as were many players on both teams. Instead of thinking of Big Ben's injured state is a fluke or extenuating circumstances, fans should start to come to grips with the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is rather likely to be seriously injured on any given season. The fact that the Ravens have played against Ben's back-ups 5 times during the 9 seasons he has been in the league and then 3 times during the last 4 years should indicate that the Steelers simply can't count on their quarterback staying healthy with the amount of protection they give him and his style of play.
Ben is known across the league as being just about the toughest quarterback out there for his will and ability to play through serious injuries. Ben has played with a broken foot, a broken nose (thank Haloti Ngata for that bear paw swipe), and even played almost all of last season with a broken thumb on his throwing hand. One can't help but wonder if his insistance on toughing it out and playing through incredible pain (or sometimes getting numbed up at halftime by the doctors) only makes him more prone to ultimately missing games. I can't say I like Ben as I am still convinced he is a sexual predator and he is the leader of the team that I loathe with all of my heart. I do recognize, however, that he is undoubtedly an elite quarterback and when he's healthy he's absolutely dangerous (watch out, ladies! haha just kidding...but not really).
My respect for Ben's quarterbacking skill is exactly why I'd like to see the Ravens play against him in this weekend's upcoming game in Baltimore. The thing that made last season so incredibly thrilling was that the Ravens absolutely dominated the Steelers at home to open up the season, and then Flacco put the team on his back and methodically drove down the field to connect with Torrey Smith on one of the most exciting scoring plays of 2011. Those games felt satisfying because the Ravens finally beat and swept the Steelers with Big Ben AND Troy Polamalu playing. No more excuses, just winning in Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
I don't think there are many fans of either team who wouldn't want to see the Ravens play Ben Roethlisberger. Maybe some Ravens fans would prefer an easier win, but if the Ravens can beat the Patriots in Baltimore, I'm more than confident they'll beat the Steelers in Baltimore. Aside of Ben, the Steelers are incredibly banged up at this point. They've lost tons of offensive linemen and are about to start a rookie offensive lineman (David DeCastro) who has never played a regular season NFL snap against a Ravens pass rush that has looked rather fierce in the last couple of weeks.
The question remains: will big Ben play? Ben has yet to practice, and I actually believe his coaching staff might even prefer him sit this one out as he could use another week to get back to form rather than risking reinjury in a game that the Steelers aren't likely to win with the way the Ravens have played at home this year. With that said, I would be heartbroken if Ben doesn't play. I live for the Ravens-Steelers rivalry--it's one of those things that I think about all year long.
I typically tell myself before the beginning of each season that I won't be too disappointed if the Ravens don't make it to or win the Superbowl as long as they beat the Steelers. I was, of course, heartbroken when the Ravens missed a Superbowl appearance because Lee Evans failed to hold onto the ball and Billy Cundiff effectively cut himself from the team. With that said, I soon looked back on the 2011 regular season with pride for my city, pride for my team, and pride in the greatest academic institution of football in the NFL...BALL SO HARD UNIVERSITY! Let's hope Big Ben is ready to go this weekend because beating the Steelers wouldn't be the same without him. I would rather the Ravens win a 23-20 squeaker against a full Steelers squad led by our most hated villain (now that Hines Ward is retired) than an absolute blowout against Charlie Batch--wouldn't you? Time to get hyped, Baltimore! AS ALWAYS GO RAVENS!!!
I've seen message boards on various sites and still photos from chargers fans trying to prove that Ray Rice didn't and couldn't have made it on his famous 4th and 29 play. I'd like to put their doubts and allegations to rest. I've read statements to the effect of "how in the world could the ball be spotted at the 33 and a half yard line when his knee was down just in front of the 35?!?!" The answer to that is quite simple. First, the ball wasn't spotted at the 33 and a half. They ref said it would be verbally, but then proceeded to spot the ball just inches in front of the 34. Beyond that, there was a discrepancy as to where Rice had to be in order to get a first down. Lil' Ray did not need to make it past the 34 to get to a first down as was originally indicated by the unofficial yellow line on TV. Part of the reason that everything took so incredibly long was because the officials had to correct the point from which they needed to measure. Then there are blurry still frames that people have pulled up where they claim Ray's knee was down. It's tough to tell at what point the knee actually makes contact with the ground in those pictures in the way that it was tough to tell if Santonio Holmes second foot was touching the turf or just touching the back of his other foot in the 2009 Superbowl against the Cardinals. One has to assume that Gene Steratore has better angles and crisper views than an incredibly blurry picture by CBS.
Even if you refuse to believe my points, as I'm sure some of you will, there is the matter of there not being enough conclusive evidence to overturn a call on the field. The referees watched the tape ad nauseum, moved the ball back just about an entire yard, determined where exactly it was that they needed to measure from, and then had the crew pull the chains taught... The result was a clear first down. If you still believe that the corrected spot was incorrect, please consider that the play which led to the Chargers' final field goal was clearly bogus, and thus, the game could have been tied at 10 or the Ravens could have gotten the ball back and been given a chance to win in regulation. The call on the field was that Bernard Pollard "led with his helmet" on a hit to a receiver on the sidelines. That receiver was not even close to catching the ball, and more importantly, Bernard Pollard hit the receiver in the middle of his torso--and led with his shoulder. So if Chargers fans want to whine about the refs giving the Ravens a chance to tie the game, consider that the Chargers' final points in regulation came as the result of a penalty that didn't even approach being possibly legitimate.
Ray Rice's play was deemed a first down after careful judgement and deliberation by the crew of referees. They had every angle on the play, and corrected the initial erroneous spot. Regardless of the spot correction, Ray still had enough for a first down because of the careful determination of the spot from which they measured with the chains. This was the play of the season for the Ravens and one that will live in Ravens history as one of the greatest moments in one of the most miraculous comebacks this organization has ever managed.
STEELERS WEEK COUNTDOWN: WILL BEN PLAY?
The Ravens very well may have lost in Pittsburgh had the Steelers been led by a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Though, to be fair, injuries are a part of the game and football is not a game of what-ifs, it's a game of what IS. In this case, Ben was injured as were many players on both teams. Instead of thinking of Big Ben's injured state is a fluke or extenuating circumstances, fans should start to come to grips with the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is rather likely to be seriously injured on any given season. The fact that the Ravens have played against Ben's back-ups 5 times during the 9 seasons he has been in the league and then 3 times during the last 4 years should indicate that the Steelers simply can't count on their quarterback staying healthy with the amount of protection they give him and his style of play.
Ben is known across the league as being just about the toughest quarterback out there for his will and ability to play through serious injuries. Ben has played with a broken foot, a broken nose (thank Haloti Ngata for that bear paw swipe), and even played almost all of last season with a broken thumb on his throwing hand. One can't help but wonder if his insistance on toughing it out and playing through incredible pain (or sometimes getting numbed up at halftime by the doctors) only makes him more prone to ultimately missing games. I can't say I like Ben as I am still convinced he is a sexual predator and he is the leader of the team that I loathe with all of my heart. I do recognize, however, that he is undoubtedly an elite quarterback and when he's healthy he's absolutely dangerous (watch out, ladies! haha just kidding...but not really).
My respect for Ben's quarterbacking skill is exactly why I'd like to see the Ravens play against him in this weekend's upcoming game in Baltimore. The thing that made last season so incredibly thrilling was that the Ravens absolutely dominated the Steelers at home to open up the season, and then Flacco put the team on his back and methodically drove down the field to connect with Torrey Smith on one of the most exciting scoring plays of 2011. Those games felt satisfying because the Ravens finally beat and swept the Steelers with Big Ben AND Troy Polamalu playing. No more excuses, just winning in Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
I don't think there are many fans of either team who wouldn't want to see the Ravens play Ben Roethlisberger. Maybe some Ravens fans would prefer an easier win, but if the Ravens can beat the Patriots in Baltimore, I'm more than confident they'll beat the Steelers in Baltimore. Aside of Ben, the Steelers are incredibly banged up at this point. They've lost tons of offensive linemen and are about to start a rookie offensive lineman (David DeCastro) who has never played a regular season NFL snap against a Ravens pass rush that has looked rather fierce in the last couple of weeks.
The question remains: will big Ben play? Ben has yet to practice, and I actually believe his coaching staff might even prefer him sit this one out as he could use another week to get back to form rather than risking reinjury in a game that the Steelers aren't likely to win with the way the Ravens have played at home this year. With that said, I would be heartbroken if Ben doesn't play. I live for the Ravens-Steelers rivalry--it's one of those things that I think about all year long.
I typically tell myself before the beginning of each season that I won't be too disappointed if the Ravens don't make it to or win the Superbowl as long as they beat the Steelers. I was, of course, heartbroken when the Ravens missed a Superbowl appearance because Lee Evans failed to hold onto the ball and Billy Cundiff effectively cut himself from the team. With that said, I soon looked back on the 2011 regular season with pride for my city, pride for my team, and pride in the greatest academic institution of football in the NFL...BALL SO HARD UNIVERSITY! Let's hope Big Ben is ready to go this weekend because beating the Steelers wouldn't be the same without him. I would rather the Ravens win a 23-20 squeaker against a full Steelers squad led by our most hated villain (now that Hines Ward is retired) than an absolute blowout against Charlie Batch--wouldn't you? Time to get hyped, Baltimore! AS ALWAYS GO RAVENS!!!
Monday, November 26, 2012
WEEK 12 NFL REACTION AND ANALYSIS
I had planned to write my next post after the Monday night game, but I am writing to you now because the Monday night game is of literally no consequence to the playoffs race...or just about anything. I clearly had to immediately address the set of events that transpired between Thursday and Sunday in the NFL. My week 12 predictions were an absolute disaster as I predicted about half incorrectly. I'm happy that I got some of the predictions wrong, upset that I predicted two correctly, angry that I got a handful of them right, and thrilled that I got another handful right. Let's take a look at the 8 games that kept me on an emotional rollercoaster this Thanksgiving weekend.
TEXANS AT LIONS- This game made countless fans want to pull their hair out. Nothing was more frustrating than watching the Texans come back to tie the game and send it into overtime because of a totally blown call and a bizarre rule technicality that allowed a bogus 81 yard touchdown run to go unreviewed. The Texans' defense is in total disarray and allowed 68 points over the last two games. The real surprise is that they allowed 68 points to two teams that have a combined 5 wins. I'll give credit to Matt Schaub and the offense for keeping them in both games, but this kind of performance simply won't win playoff games. Beyond all of that, the unreviewed bogus touchdown means that the Texans still have plenty of opportunity to get a #1 seed in the playoffs as they came away from a bogus win with a 10-1 record. I have never screamed so hard at an NFL game that didn't involve the Ravens.
PATRIOTS AT JETS- I knew I was taking a total gamble when I picked the Jets to upset the Patriots. To my credit, the Jets just barely lost to the Patriots in Foxboro earlier this year, and this time the Pats were without Gronk and Logan Mankins. The problem, however, is that the Jets occassionally have a good game when they minimize mistakes, but more often than not they totally blow it and look absolutely pathetic. The moment that best exemplified the pathetic nature of the Jets' performance was when Mark Sanchez ran smack into the back of his right tackle and crashed comically backward to the turf whilst simultaneously fumbling the football which New England easily recovered. The Patriots scored 3 touchdowns within 52 seconds and demolished a Jets team that is arguably the worst team in the league when they're having a bad day. The Patriots are a dangerous team, but they're VERY dangerous when their opponent simply hands them the ball repeatedly (yeah Shonne Green, I'm talking about you). Shame on me for picking the Jets against my better judgement.
VIKINGS AT BEARS- Now to be fair, I didn't believe that Jay Cutler was going to play and they didn't announce he was going to do so until after I had made my picks. This is actually making me consider writing my Thursday night pick first by itself and then writing my Sunday and Monday night pick on friday when teams have a better idea of who is going to start. As I wrote last week, Jay Cutler simply plays in a way that proves time and again conducive to the Bears' success this season. They're tough to beat when he's playing. I also wouldn't have bet against them had I known he was going to play. Oh well.
STEELERS AT BROWNS- I was thrilled that I got this prediction correct, but not even slightly surprised. The Browns are better than their record suggests and the Steelers simply can't win games this year without a healthy Roethlisberger. The great thing for the Ravens is that Roethlisberger may possibly attempt to play against the Ravens next weekend, and that will be fun for Ravens fans to watch because the Steelers fans will no longer be able to use the excuse that their team only lost because Big Ben wasn't in...because the Steelers will lose big time with him in when they come to Charm City. 8 turnovers, Steelers? C'mon, that's beyond embarrassing.
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- I predicted this game correctly, but man I'm upset that I did. The Falcons are a very good team in that they win games. They win close games, and most of them have been against bad teams, but they win. The Buccaneers are not a bad team. They're a pretty strong team as of late. I still doubt that the Falcons will win a playoff game, but they've proven now that they can beat a decent team on the road. They've got some big tests coming up against the Saints, Giants, and a rematch vs. the Buccaneers. I believe they'll lose 1 out of those three games and will secure the #1 seed in the playoffs for the NFC...they'll lose their first playoff game though.
RAVENS AT CHARGERS- The Ravens defense is back in a big way. They got torched by the Texans, but since then, the Ravens have allowed only 14.5 points per game and haven't allowed a touchdown from the redzone in 3 games. The Ravens are now 7th in the NFL in points allowed per game and that makes them an elite defense. Expect them to move to 5th in the NFL in this catergory and first in the AFC after next weekend. The defense played its collective heart out all game despite what some would have assumed would have been receiving matchup issues. The Chargers have multiple receivers that are 6'5" and in the 220+ range, but that didn't mean much as the Ravens held the Chargers to a single touchdown and two field goals. This is a Chargers team that averaged 23.5 points per game against the Broncos defense this season.
Suffocating defensive play allowed Joe Flacco and Ray Rice to lead 3 offensive scoring drives with very little time left to win a game that I must admit I almost didn't even have hope that they could pull out at times. Ray Rice deserves a medal for his 4th and 29 conversion and Torrey Smith's mid-air back shoulder catch to put the Ravens in position to make the game winning field goal solidifies him as an elite receiver in my mind despite having some down games this season. I would say this is an ugly win, but it's not. This was a pretty win in that it was clutch. It was clutch in the way that Peyton Manning is clutch, More importantly, it was clutch in the way that Joe Flacco is clutch. Flacco had 355 yards yesterday and the vast majority of them came from the 4th quarter onward. He's amassed 2850 yards and is averaging 246.5 yards per game. At this rate, Joe will finish the season with a career best of 4082 passing yards, but he could very well have more as 3 out of the last 5 regular season Ravens games will be played in Baltimore. The Ravens are 9-2....oh and reports are that Ray Lewis may actually return to practice this Thursday and possibly be ready to play when the Broncos come to town.
49ERS AT SAINTS- I still believe I made a sound prediction when I picked the Saints to win at home against the 49ers. I did not, however, anticipate Drew Brees to throw multiple pick-6's. Drew Brees is an amazing quarterback, but it's almost impossible for any quarterback to win a game after making those kinds of mistakes against a team of San Francisco's caliber. The 49ers, like the Ravens, are heating up in time for the playoffs, and I'm sure there are plenty of fans out there that would relish the idea of a Harbaugh Bowl in early February. Colin Kaepernick wasn't electric, but the 49ers don't need their quarterback to be electric to win games with their defense and running game. Kaepernick will most likely get much better as he develops with time, but right now he's good enough. If nothing else, it should be comforting to the '9ers that they have two Trent Dilfers in case one of them goes down.
PACKERS AT GIANTS- I didn't pick the Giants to win this game, but I'm not at all surprised that they did. Coming off of a bye week, the Giants were facing a Packers team with no Clay Matthews. Eli looked fresh, rested, and dominant. The Giants' pass rush was back in full force, and the Packers' lack of a running game once again proved a major weakness in a team that many people consider a Superbowl contender. Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic QB, but his team will not win another Superbowl until it becomes multi-dimensional and closer to complete. I should have known the Giants were due, especially coming off of a bye week. They simply own the 49ers and Packers.
Week 12 was, if nothing else, exciting and spectacular (especially if you're a Ravens fan). It's a travesty that the Texans are 10-1 instead of 9-2 at the moment, but their defensive play against inferior oppenents simply won't fly in the remainder of the season as they have to face the Patriots in Foxboro and the Colts twice. Expect the Texans to lose 2-3 of their final 5 games. They're still a good team, but their defense is falling off of a cliff at the wrong time. It's Steelers week here in Baltimore and Big Ben looks like he's planning to return. After watching the Ravens sack Philip Rivers 6 times, I would be cautious of coming back if I were Ben. After all, they're not likely to beat the Ravens in Baltimore if Ben is fully healthy, and now he'll be coming off of an injury that could prove potentially fatal if he's hit the in the ribs...and there's no way the Ravens will be avoiding his ribs. Weee reeeady, WEEE REEEEAADDY, WEEEE REAAAAAADY, FOR Y'AAAAALL! As always
GO RAVENS!!
TEXANS AT LIONS- This game made countless fans want to pull their hair out. Nothing was more frustrating than watching the Texans come back to tie the game and send it into overtime because of a totally blown call and a bizarre rule technicality that allowed a bogus 81 yard touchdown run to go unreviewed. The Texans' defense is in total disarray and allowed 68 points over the last two games. The real surprise is that they allowed 68 points to two teams that have a combined 5 wins. I'll give credit to Matt Schaub and the offense for keeping them in both games, but this kind of performance simply won't win playoff games. Beyond all of that, the unreviewed bogus touchdown means that the Texans still have plenty of opportunity to get a #1 seed in the playoffs as they came away from a bogus win with a 10-1 record. I have never screamed so hard at an NFL game that didn't involve the Ravens.
PATRIOTS AT JETS- I knew I was taking a total gamble when I picked the Jets to upset the Patriots. To my credit, the Jets just barely lost to the Patriots in Foxboro earlier this year, and this time the Pats were without Gronk and Logan Mankins. The problem, however, is that the Jets occassionally have a good game when they minimize mistakes, but more often than not they totally blow it and look absolutely pathetic. The moment that best exemplified the pathetic nature of the Jets' performance was when Mark Sanchez ran smack into the back of his right tackle and crashed comically backward to the turf whilst simultaneously fumbling the football which New England easily recovered. The Patriots scored 3 touchdowns within 52 seconds and demolished a Jets team that is arguably the worst team in the league when they're having a bad day. The Patriots are a dangerous team, but they're VERY dangerous when their opponent simply hands them the ball repeatedly (yeah Shonne Green, I'm talking about you). Shame on me for picking the Jets against my better judgement.
VIKINGS AT BEARS- Now to be fair, I didn't believe that Jay Cutler was going to play and they didn't announce he was going to do so until after I had made my picks. This is actually making me consider writing my Thursday night pick first by itself and then writing my Sunday and Monday night pick on friday when teams have a better idea of who is going to start. As I wrote last week, Jay Cutler simply plays in a way that proves time and again conducive to the Bears' success this season. They're tough to beat when he's playing. I also wouldn't have bet against them had I known he was going to play. Oh well.
STEELERS AT BROWNS- I was thrilled that I got this prediction correct, but not even slightly surprised. The Browns are better than their record suggests and the Steelers simply can't win games this year without a healthy Roethlisberger. The great thing for the Ravens is that Roethlisberger may possibly attempt to play against the Ravens next weekend, and that will be fun for Ravens fans to watch because the Steelers fans will no longer be able to use the excuse that their team only lost because Big Ben wasn't in...because the Steelers will lose big time with him in when they come to Charm City. 8 turnovers, Steelers? C'mon, that's beyond embarrassing.
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- I predicted this game correctly, but man I'm upset that I did. The Falcons are a very good team in that they win games. They win close games, and most of them have been against bad teams, but they win. The Buccaneers are not a bad team. They're a pretty strong team as of late. I still doubt that the Falcons will win a playoff game, but they've proven now that they can beat a decent team on the road. They've got some big tests coming up against the Saints, Giants, and a rematch vs. the Buccaneers. I believe they'll lose 1 out of those three games and will secure the #1 seed in the playoffs for the NFC...they'll lose their first playoff game though.
RAVENS AT CHARGERS- The Ravens defense is back in a big way. They got torched by the Texans, but since then, the Ravens have allowed only 14.5 points per game and haven't allowed a touchdown from the redzone in 3 games. The Ravens are now 7th in the NFL in points allowed per game and that makes them an elite defense. Expect them to move to 5th in the NFL in this catergory and first in the AFC after next weekend. The defense played its collective heart out all game despite what some would have assumed would have been receiving matchup issues. The Chargers have multiple receivers that are 6'5" and in the 220+ range, but that didn't mean much as the Ravens held the Chargers to a single touchdown and two field goals. This is a Chargers team that averaged 23.5 points per game against the Broncos defense this season.
Suffocating defensive play allowed Joe Flacco and Ray Rice to lead 3 offensive scoring drives with very little time left to win a game that I must admit I almost didn't even have hope that they could pull out at times. Ray Rice deserves a medal for his 4th and 29 conversion and Torrey Smith's mid-air back shoulder catch to put the Ravens in position to make the game winning field goal solidifies him as an elite receiver in my mind despite having some down games this season. I would say this is an ugly win, but it's not. This was a pretty win in that it was clutch. It was clutch in the way that Peyton Manning is clutch, More importantly, it was clutch in the way that Joe Flacco is clutch. Flacco had 355 yards yesterday and the vast majority of them came from the 4th quarter onward. He's amassed 2850 yards and is averaging 246.5 yards per game. At this rate, Joe will finish the season with a career best of 4082 passing yards, but he could very well have more as 3 out of the last 5 regular season Ravens games will be played in Baltimore. The Ravens are 9-2....oh and reports are that Ray Lewis may actually return to practice this Thursday and possibly be ready to play when the Broncos come to town.
49ERS AT SAINTS- I still believe I made a sound prediction when I picked the Saints to win at home against the 49ers. I did not, however, anticipate Drew Brees to throw multiple pick-6's. Drew Brees is an amazing quarterback, but it's almost impossible for any quarterback to win a game after making those kinds of mistakes against a team of San Francisco's caliber. The 49ers, like the Ravens, are heating up in time for the playoffs, and I'm sure there are plenty of fans out there that would relish the idea of a Harbaugh Bowl in early February. Colin Kaepernick wasn't electric, but the 49ers don't need their quarterback to be electric to win games with their defense and running game. Kaepernick will most likely get much better as he develops with time, but right now he's good enough. If nothing else, it should be comforting to the '9ers that they have two Trent Dilfers in case one of them goes down.
PACKERS AT GIANTS- I didn't pick the Giants to win this game, but I'm not at all surprised that they did. Coming off of a bye week, the Giants were facing a Packers team with no Clay Matthews. Eli looked fresh, rested, and dominant. The Giants' pass rush was back in full force, and the Packers' lack of a running game once again proved a major weakness in a team that many people consider a Superbowl contender. Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic QB, but his team will not win another Superbowl until it becomes multi-dimensional and closer to complete. I should have known the Giants were due, especially coming off of a bye week. They simply own the 49ers and Packers.
Week 12 was, if nothing else, exciting and spectacular (especially if you're a Ravens fan). It's a travesty that the Texans are 10-1 instead of 9-2 at the moment, but their defensive play against inferior oppenents simply won't fly in the remainder of the season as they have to face the Patriots in Foxboro and the Colts twice. Expect the Texans to lose 2-3 of their final 5 games. They're still a good team, but their defense is falling off of a cliff at the wrong time. It's Steelers week here in Baltimore and Big Ben looks like he's planning to return. After watching the Ravens sack Philip Rivers 6 times, I would be cautious of coming back if I were Ben. After all, they're not likely to beat the Ravens in Baltimore if Ben is fully healthy, and now he'll be coming off of an injury that could prove potentially fatal if he's hit the in the ribs...and there's no way the Ravens will be avoiding his ribs. Weee reeeady, WEEE REEEEAADDY, WEEEE REAAAAAADY, FOR Y'AAAAALL! As always
GO RAVENS!!
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
WEEK 12 NFL PREDICTIONS (THANKSGIVING EDITION)
There's no better way to celebrate that to which we give thanks in America than stuffing our faces with food and sitting down with family to watch football. I, for one, give thanks for football... Seriously, what other major entertainment in America is so exciting as our national obsession? It gets us pumped up all week, it forces us to talk trash and debate to no end, and it gives people pride for their city or region of the country. Football, unlike all of the other major televised professional sports, features a season with comparatively few games. Instead of 162 games in baseball, football has 16 in the regular season. That means that each game means so very much more than one in the NBA or the Major Leagues. On top of that, football features single elimination playoffs. A team is out of the dance as soon as they lose a single game rather than a series of games as with other sports. This can make the pain and misery of a single defeat sting for months, but it can also make the high of victory so much higher.
The appeal of football stems from rather primal feelings and desires in the human brain. So strong is the urge to prove physical dominance that people go absolutely crazy when they see someone on their team absolutely level an opponent with a brutal hit or a pancake block. Civilized society dictates that violence toward others is wrong and illegal. Football, however, gives Americans a healthy outlet to watch and participate in violence that would otherwise get someone prosecuted were they not wearing a helmet and pads. Football allows men to go be gladiators once a week and give everything they have in the hopes of achieving glory that they'll carry with them for the rest of their lives.
Yes, there are ulgy aspects to football as well. One can incur any number of debilitating injuries, and NFL careers are only an average of 3 years long as a result. The probabilities of suffering from some level of brain trauma appear higher and higher as scientists discover more and more about the effects of repeated blows to the head. This will undoubtedly keep many parents from allowing or encouraging their children to play the sport. For many others, however, these are risks they're willing to take to play a game they love so much. It is, after all, the intense physical nature of football that creates such an incredible bond between teammates. Players feel close to one another knowing that they've endured incredible pain and exhaustion together all for the one common goal of getting that oddly shaped ball across an imaginary plane. Teammates stand up for one another, block for one another, and protect one another even when winning is no longer a possibility. Football takes just about everything out of you, but that's what makes winning all the more fulfilling. Vince Lombardi probably said it best: "I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." With that, I'd like to wish all of my readers HAPPY THANKSGIVING!! Now let's get to the Week 12 Predictions!
WEEK 12 NFL PREDICTIONS
Last week I went 13-1 in my predictions to improve to 60-23 in my predictions on the season. I guess I just underestimated the ability of the Jets to occassionally put together a good win and dominate another team. They're a tough team to predict as they've been so up and down this year that one simply has no idea what to expect from week to week. Either way, this is my best prediction week ever, but also the easiest as I didn't predict any upsets correctly. I was hoping to be wrong about the Texans, but they found a way to come back late and beat an inferior team. No matter, the Texans have 3 road trips in a row and I know they'll lose at least one of them.
TEXANS AT LIONS- The Texans appeared vulnerable at home last week against the Jaguars. Analysts pointed out something that I thought would have benefitted the Ravens weeks ago in that the Texans have little pass rush if J.J. Watt is double teamed. The Texans, are still a much better team than the Lions and I have a hard time believing that the Lions will be able to keep up with the Texans on offense without a serious running game and limited receiving options. I really hope the Lions prove me wrong here. MY PREDICTION: TEXANS 29-17.
REDSKINS AT COWBOYS- I'll be rooting for the Redskins here, but I simply think the Cowboys are a more complete team. Please prove me wrong, Redskins! MY PREDICTION: COWBOYS 28-23.
PATRIONS AT JETS- The Jets almost upset the Patriots in Foxboro when these teams last met and the Pats have since lost Rob Gronkowski and running back Brandon Bolden. My brain tells me not to bet against the Patriots regardless, but this will be my upset of the week. Tom Brady and company may make me look like a fool with this one. MY PREDICTION: JETS 24-20.
VIKINGS AT BEARS- I strongly doubt the Bears can win with Jason Campbell at the helm. MY PREDICTION: VIKINGS 17-13.
RAIDERS AT BENGALS- This will be an interesting homecoming for Carson Palmer, but he certainly won't enjoy it. MY PREDICTION: BENGALS 38-21.
STEELERS AT BROWNS- The Browns seldom get blown out even by top teams. Without Big Ben and while playing outside of Pittsburgh, the Steelers are not a top team. I can't WAIT to watch this one. Have at it, Trent! MY PREDICTION: BROWNS 23-16.
BILLS AT COLTS- Andrew Luck does very well at home. The Colts will bounce back from an embarrassing loss to handle their business against the mediocre boys from Buffalo. MY PREDICTION: COLTS 31-20.
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- I'm sure the Broncos would love us to believe that they'll be able to run the ball just as well without Willis McGahee, but that was still a serious loss. With that said, Peyton Manning doesn't need a running game to win, and especially not to beat the Chiefs. MY PREDICTION: BRONCOS 33-10.
SEAHAWKS AT DOLPHINS- This will be an interesting game, but the Seahawks are simply a stronger team this year. MY PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 23-14.
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- The Buccaneers could totally surprise me with this one, but I'm picking the Falcons because the Bucs have such a poorly ranked pass defense and Matt Ryan will be able to pick them apart. The Bucs will be able to move the ball and score points though, I just don't believe it'll be quite enough. MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 37-31.
TITANS AT JAGUARS- Divisional matchups are always tough to predict, but I love how the Jags played with Chad Henne against the Texans. They should win this one, but it'll be a shootout. MY PREDICTION: JAGUARS 42-35.
RAVENS AT CHARGERS- I remember very well what happened last year when the Ravens traveled to San Diego. The offense sputtered as it often has on the road in the last two seasons, and the defense got torched by one of the most annoying quarterbacks in the league. The Chargers aren't the offensive powerhouse they were last year as they lose Vincent Jackson and have had recent troubles with their offensive line. The Ravens' are going to have to win this one the way they won their last game against the Browns. Run the football well to set up the pass. Having Dennis Pitta back will help and Torrey Smith will once again need to be a big factor against these guys. With all of that said, the Chargers have only won 2 of their last 8 games and both of those wins were against the Chiefs. Don't let us down, guys!! MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 24-21.
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Rams haven't won many games, but they're still better than the Cardinals. MY PREDICTION: RAMS 28-17.
49ERS AT SAINTS- The 49ers looked amazing against the Bears. They, however, don't match up near as well against the Saints. It's tough for me to bet against the Saints at home and I'm not about to start today. MY PREDICTION: SAINTS 33-23.
PACKERS AT GIANTS- The Giants simply don't play well at home and the Packers are on a tear recently. This one will still be closer than most people expect. MY PREDICTION: PACKERS 24-17.
PANTHERS AT EAGLES- This is the "who cares?" bowl of the week. Both of these teams are totally doomed. Nick Foles is young...and bad. MY PREDICTION: PANTHERS 35-21.
ONCE AGAIN, HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE! AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The appeal of football stems from rather primal feelings and desires in the human brain. So strong is the urge to prove physical dominance that people go absolutely crazy when they see someone on their team absolutely level an opponent with a brutal hit or a pancake block. Civilized society dictates that violence toward others is wrong and illegal. Football, however, gives Americans a healthy outlet to watch and participate in violence that would otherwise get someone prosecuted were they not wearing a helmet and pads. Football allows men to go be gladiators once a week and give everything they have in the hopes of achieving glory that they'll carry with them for the rest of their lives.
Yes, there are ulgy aspects to football as well. One can incur any number of debilitating injuries, and NFL careers are only an average of 3 years long as a result. The probabilities of suffering from some level of brain trauma appear higher and higher as scientists discover more and more about the effects of repeated blows to the head. This will undoubtedly keep many parents from allowing or encouraging their children to play the sport. For many others, however, these are risks they're willing to take to play a game they love so much. It is, after all, the intense physical nature of football that creates such an incredible bond between teammates. Players feel close to one another knowing that they've endured incredible pain and exhaustion together all for the one common goal of getting that oddly shaped ball across an imaginary plane. Teammates stand up for one another, block for one another, and protect one another even when winning is no longer a possibility. Football takes just about everything out of you, but that's what makes winning all the more fulfilling. Vince Lombardi probably said it best: "I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." With that, I'd like to wish all of my readers HAPPY THANKSGIVING!! Now let's get to the Week 12 Predictions!
WEEK 12 NFL PREDICTIONS
Last week I went 13-1 in my predictions to improve to 60-23 in my predictions on the season. I guess I just underestimated the ability of the Jets to occassionally put together a good win and dominate another team. They're a tough team to predict as they've been so up and down this year that one simply has no idea what to expect from week to week. Either way, this is my best prediction week ever, but also the easiest as I didn't predict any upsets correctly. I was hoping to be wrong about the Texans, but they found a way to come back late and beat an inferior team. No matter, the Texans have 3 road trips in a row and I know they'll lose at least one of them.
TEXANS AT LIONS- The Texans appeared vulnerable at home last week against the Jaguars. Analysts pointed out something that I thought would have benefitted the Ravens weeks ago in that the Texans have little pass rush if J.J. Watt is double teamed. The Texans, are still a much better team than the Lions and I have a hard time believing that the Lions will be able to keep up with the Texans on offense without a serious running game and limited receiving options. I really hope the Lions prove me wrong here. MY PREDICTION: TEXANS 29-17.
REDSKINS AT COWBOYS- I'll be rooting for the Redskins here, but I simply think the Cowboys are a more complete team. Please prove me wrong, Redskins! MY PREDICTION: COWBOYS 28-23.
PATRIONS AT JETS- The Jets almost upset the Patriots in Foxboro when these teams last met and the Pats have since lost Rob Gronkowski and running back Brandon Bolden. My brain tells me not to bet against the Patriots regardless, but this will be my upset of the week. Tom Brady and company may make me look like a fool with this one. MY PREDICTION: JETS 24-20.
VIKINGS AT BEARS- I strongly doubt the Bears can win with Jason Campbell at the helm. MY PREDICTION: VIKINGS 17-13.
RAIDERS AT BENGALS- This will be an interesting homecoming for Carson Palmer, but he certainly won't enjoy it. MY PREDICTION: BENGALS 38-21.
STEELERS AT BROWNS- The Browns seldom get blown out even by top teams. Without Big Ben and while playing outside of Pittsburgh, the Steelers are not a top team. I can't WAIT to watch this one. Have at it, Trent! MY PREDICTION: BROWNS 23-16.
BILLS AT COLTS- Andrew Luck does very well at home. The Colts will bounce back from an embarrassing loss to handle their business against the mediocre boys from Buffalo. MY PREDICTION: COLTS 31-20.
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- I'm sure the Broncos would love us to believe that they'll be able to run the ball just as well without Willis McGahee, but that was still a serious loss. With that said, Peyton Manning doesn't need a running game to win, and especially not to beat the Chiefs. MY PREDICTION: BRONCOS 33-10.
SEAHAWKS AT DOLPHINS- This will be an interesting game, but the Seahawks are simply a stronger team this year. MY PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 23-14.
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- The Buccaneers could totally surprise me with this one, but I'm picking the Falcons because the Bucs have such a poorly ranked pass defense and Matt Ryan will be able to pick them apart. The Bucs will be able to move the ball and score points though, I just don't believe it'll be quite enough. MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 37-31.
TITANS AT JAGUARS- Divisional matchups are always tough to predict, but I love how the Jags played with Chad Henne against the Texans. They should win this one, but it'll be a shootout. MY PREDICTION: JAGUARS 42-35.
RAVENS AT CHARGERS- I remember very well what happened last year when the Ravens traveled to San Diego. The offense sputtered as it often has on the road in the last two seasons, and the defense got torched by one of the most annoying quarterbacks in the league. The Chargers aren't the offensive powerhouse they were last year as they lose Vincent Jackson and have had recent troubles with their offensive line. The Ravens' are going to have to win this one the way they won their last game against the Browns. Run the football well to set up the pass. Having Dennis Pitta back will help and Torrey Smith will once again need to be a big factor against these guys. With all of that said, the Chargers have only won 2 of their last 8 games and both of those wins were against the Chiefs. Don't let us down, guys!! MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 24-21.
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Rams haven't won many games, but they're still better than the Cardinals. MY PREDICTION: RAMS 28-17.
49ERS AT SAINTS- The 49ers looked amazing against the Bears. They, however, don't match up near as well against the Saints. It's tough for me to bet against the Saints at home and I'm not about to start today. MY PREDICTION: SAINTS 33-23.
PACKERS AT GIANTS- The Giants simply don't play well at home and the Packers are on a tear recently. This one will still be closer than most people expect. MY PREDICTION: PACKERS 24-17.
PANTHERS AT EAGLES- This is the "who cares?" bowl of the week. Both of these teams are totally doomed. Nick Foles is young...and bad. MY PREDICTION: PANTHERS 35-21.
ONCE AGAIN, HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE! AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
WEEK 12 POWER RANKINGS AND ANALYSIS
MONDAY NIGHT ANALYSIS AND RAVENS RECAP
This has been an unpredictable season for the NFL. In sharp contrast to 2011 and 2010, this season has seen the rise of a number teams with high powered defenses and strong running games. The Ravens and Steelers are no longer the best examples of this type of team in the NFL, and teams such as the 49ers, Seahawks, Texans, and Bears have demonstrated the ability to win games and in some cases even lead their respective divisions without a single Superbowl-winning quarterback among them. Last night demonstrated just how easily replaced the 49ers' starting quarterback Alex Smith was as Colin Kaepernick stepped in and threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns to beat the Bears 32-7. The 49ers are such a well balanced team stocked with tons of defensive stars and offensive weapons that all they need on any given day is a reasonably sound quarterback to win games. It reminds me a bit of the Ravens for the last decade. They had pro-bowlers almost everywhere you looked, but mediocre or poor quarterback play. Then they acquired Steve McNair who performed admirably though not at an elite level (he only threw for 3051 yards during his lone full season with the Ravens) and suddenly they went 13-3 during the regular season.
You may have been as shocked as I was to see the 49ers run roughshod over the vaunted Bears defense last night, but the more I thought about it, the less it surprised me. First, playing in Candlestick Park is never easy for a visiting team. The 49ers have a great home crowd, and thus, a great homefield advantage. Beyond that, the Bears defense is the same as that of the 49ers. The Bears defense has found success because of turnovers. Turnovers are a great thing for any defense to excel at creating, but they're not a statistic that a team can reliably count on. The Bears certainly haven't been lucky as they've consistently created turnovers all season long to lead the NFL with 36. That does not mean, however, that they can always count on other teams to fumble the ball or throw interceptions. Last night was an example of what happens to the Bears defense when an opposing a team secures the football. In contrast, the 49ers are just about the best in the league at suffocating opposing offenses with vicious pass rushers (Alson Smith) and powerful run stuffers (Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis). The 49ers have only forced 14 turnovers on the season with 5 interceptions and 9 forced fumbles, but they have held opposing quarterbacks to 182.9 yards per game, and opposing teams to 94.3 yards per game on the ground.
Aside of defense, the 49ers simply have more offensive weapons than the Bears. Both teams started back-up quarterbacks, but Kaepernick had Vernon Davis, Mario Manningham, and Michael Crabtree at his disposal and the Bears' quarterback, Jason Campbell, had only Brandon Marshall. The 49ers also outclassed the Bears in the running department as Frank Gore averaged 4.6 yards per carry in contrast to Matt Forte of the Bears with 3 yards per carry. As with just about any defense, the longer they're on the field, the worse they perform. The Bears offense could not sustain drives for almost the entire game, and that resulted in a totally exhausted Bears defense that most likely had little energy and explosion that typically results in the creation of turnovers. In fact, the Bears usual starting Quarterback, Jay Cutler, has a curve of success over the course of each game that proves condusive to keeping the defense well rested and ready to make plays. At the beginning of November, Cutler led the NFL with a forth quarter QB rating of 132 and a 73.9 completion percentage. His average quarterback rating in the first quarter was less than half of that and it increased by leaps an bounds with each successive quarter. This worked perfectly as it meant the offense took over games late to give the defense a break. Fast forward to last night and Jason Campbell simply couldn't duplicate that type of success. The 49ers proved a more complete team in every phase of the game and totally dominated a Bears team that desperately needs its starting QB back.
With all of that said, the Bears are still 7-3 and they remain contenders for the playoffs and Superbowl. The NFC only has one team with more than 7 wins, and that team, the Atlanta Falcons, has shown that even poor teams can stand toe to toe with them play games that come right down to the wire. On the AFC side, the Texans are still leading the conference with 9 wins, but they also have shown their vulnerablility as they narrowly beat a team with only a single win and allowed that team to score 37 points on their highly touted defense in an overtime nailbiter on Sunday afternoon. The team with the second best record in the AFC is the Ravens. They're the only team in the NFL with 8 wins, and won a defensive battle against the Steelers on Sunday night to solidify their spot atop the AFC North. I've read, however, a startling number of fans and commentators describe the Ravens as "pretenders" or "worse than their record suggests" as a result of the disparity between the quality of play on the road and at home. This disparity is quite apparent as the Ravens offense has scored an average 36.8 points per game, but that very same offense has only managed 16.6 points on the road. Fortunately for the Ravens, 16.6 points per game on the road has been enough to give them a winning road record of 3-2 that could easily be 4-1 if not for a bogus penalty from replacement referees that nullified what would have been a game-winning touchdown in week two against the Eagles.
When you hear Ravens players and staff comment on their offensive woes on the road, they often try to suggest that there is really no good reason why their offense doesn't work nearly as well on the road as it does in M and T Bank Stadium. They chalk it up to execution problems and not having a home crowd behind them. This is partly true, but it's also partly a total crock. Yes, it's always great to have a strong home crowd behind you, and yes the Ravens appear to have execution problems on the road, but it's quite clear that Cam Cameron and the rest of the coaching staff are totally oblivious as to WHY there are such problems executing on the road. Anyone who watched Sunday night's game could see glaring issues in the game plan, not the execution, of the Ravens offense. The offensive line did have trouble opening up holes for Ray Rice, and Joe Flacco appeared off the mark on a number of throws, but the biggest issue appeared to be the routes that Cam Cameron's plays required of the receivers. In situations where the Ravens needed only 2, 4, or 7 yards, Cameron had the Ravens wideouts running deep routes. This total lunacy as the Steelers excel at taking away the deep pass and are far more vulnerable to quick passes on short and intermediate routes. The Ravens such shorter routes extremely well last year and converted many 3rd and even on some critical 4th downs in Pittsburgh to sustain drives and get into the endzone. Completing these short and intermediate passes ultimately opened things up for the deep ball late in the game and ultimately led to the dramatic late game touchdown pass to Torrey Smith.
The Ravens will fortunately not have to face another elite defense on the road during the rest of the regular season. They may, however, have to play on the road at some point in the playoffs, and such a game could very easily be against the Texans. The Ravens simply have to tweak their game plan on the road and put together dominant wins against the likes of the Chargers, Redskins, and Bengals and continue to handle business at home in order to change the minds of those who consider them "pretenders" rather than Superbowl contenders. Now lets get to the WEEK 12 POWER RANKINGS!!
WEEK 12 NFL POWER RANKINGS
I generally see little point in ranking all 32 teams as it's difficult and trivial to try to argue that one bad team is slightly worse or better than another. With that said, I'll rank the top 12 teams as that is the number of teams that advance to the playoffs. Mind you that these are power rankings, not simply a list of teams ranked by record, so dont' be surprised when some teams get outranked by other with less wins and more losses. I take injuries, strength of schedule, and current performance level into account with these. I place less stock in overall record as this season saw a good number of losses for great teams during the first month under the watch of replacement referees. Enjoy!
1. HOUSTON TEXANS- The Texans have shown their vulnerability a few times this season, but only one of those times has resulted in a loss. Even a close win over a bad team such as the Jaguars is still a a win. The Jaguars will also be a tough team to beat going forward if Chad Henne can continue to play at that level. The remainder of the regular season will be a big test for the Texans as they play 4 of their next 6 games on the road including difficult matchups with the Patriots and Colts.
2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- The 49ers may have just got a lot better last night when they started Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. He looked athletic, mobile, and accurate enough to take this team to the next level. On top of that, he did so against a typically dominant Bears defense. I have a STRONG hunch we'll see these guys in the NFC Championship game.
3. ATLANTA FALCONS- I'm not usually sold on the Falcons despite great regular season statistics and record. It is, however, impossible to argue with 9-1 as there are no easy teams to beat in the NFL. The Falcons have faced only one team all season that currently has a winning record (the Broncos) and that team had not yet found its offensive rhythm at the time. The Falcons will have plenty of chances to prove themselves as they face the red-hot Buccaneers twice, the Saints again, the Giants, and the Lions in Detroit for the remainder of the regular season. I have a feeling they'll lose at least 2 more games during that stretch though.
4. DENVER BRONCOS- Yes this team has 3 losses, but Peyton Manning has taken charge of the offense after a rocky start, and the Broncos defense is strong enough and creates enough turnovers to give the future hall-of-famer plenty of opportunities to score. This ranking could change rapidly, however, as Willis McGahee will not play for the rest of the regular season with a torn MCL. We'll have to see how Denver is able to play without him against the Chiefs and Buccaneers over the next two weeks. They might have been my choice for #1 had it not been for this major blow to their running game.
5. BALTIMORE RAVENS- There may be a number of you who disagree with this ranking. You might think their road performances warrant them a lower ranking, but the Ravens are rapidly improving on defense despite major injuries, and they could get a lot better with the return of Pernell McPhee this week. There's also a possibility that James Ihedigbo will be an improvement over an injured Ed Reed. Ed has had a tough season with a torn labrum since week 3, and it's possible that James could provide added speed and power because of his health and youth though he won't command the same respect from opposing QBs that #20 always does. Sunday's matchup against the Chargers will prove if the Ravens are really deserving of this ranking.
6. GREEN BAY PACKERS- The Packers have won their last 5 games. They had an impressive beat down of the Texans in the game following Brian Cushings' ACL tear. Since then, however, they've failed to really dominate lesser teams. This is not the high-flying Packers team of 2011, but they're winning games and that's all you can ask for in the NFL. They head to the Meadowlands this week to face a Giants team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. I expect the Packers to win this game, but if they don't, I doubt they'll go far in the playoffs as they have a virtually nonexistant running game that reders them once again one dimensional on offense.
7. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- The Patriots might be ranked higher except that they're a lot like the Ravens in that they occassionally put on an offensively dominant performance but then barely squeak by lesser teams such as the Bills and Jets. Add to that the major loss of Rob Gronkowski to a broken arm and suddenly this team could be in trouble as they head for a Thanksgiving showdown with the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Patriots will be without Bolden because of his suspension for testing positive for PEDs and of course without Gronk, but they still have enough weapons to win this game and climb the rankings.
8. CHICAGO BEARS- The Bears are 7-3, but I believe they'll fall off the map with the remainder of their schedule. They have 4 tough divisional matchups left and they could easily lose 4 or 5 of their final 6 games to finish 10-6 or 9-7. They win most likely get a wildcard spot, but this team needs to re-establish a running game to convince me that they're still Superbowl contenders. Maybe I'm being too hard on them...
9. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- The Saints are only 5-5, but all 5 of their wins have come in the last 6 games. The Saints have to play the 49ers, the Falcons in Atlanta, the Giants in New York, the Buccaneers, the Cowboys in Dallas, and the Panthers. If they can win 4 or 5 of those last 6 games, they could secure a wildcard spot, but I'm still not sold on them as a legitimate playoff contender as they fare poorly in bad weather conditions.
10. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- This team continues to impress me week after week. After losing 3 of their first 4 games, the Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 to improve to 6-4 on the year. They have done this by running the ball and stopping the run with the leagues best rush defense. Josh Freeman has been on fire with over 2500 passing yards and 21 touchdowns. Doug Martin has exactly 1000 rushing yards so far and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The Bucs' glaring weakness is their 32nd ranked pass defense, and that will be tested to the fullest extent as the Bucs still have to face such pass-heavy offenses as the Saints, Broncos, and Falcons (twice). I believe, however that there's a good chance they'll win 3 or maybe even 4 of their last 6 games to possibly secure a wildcard spot.
11. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Andrew Luck has impressed me a lot this season. He has stepped in and performed far better than two more experienced veterans were able to do with mostly the same team last season. The Colts have had to deal with the temporary loss of their head coach due to cancer treatment, and they've faced a good number of tough opponents thus far in their schedule, but getting so beat down by the Patriots showed that this team still has work to do.
12. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- I really hate this team and I hate putting them on this list. I do, however, have to acknowledge just how good this team is with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. The problem is that he's not currently healthy, and the Steelers could easily lose their next two games in a row while they wait for him to return and fall to 6-6. Assuming that Ben gets healthy, however, the Steelers could then proceed to win out their final 4 games to get to a 10-6 record that will likely secure them a wildcard spot. They're better without Troy Polamalu as he's a total liability in coverage and not much of a tackler anymore. The Steelers also run the ball and stop the run well and that will make them a dangerous team if they can make it to the playoffs. They probably won't win much starting Charlie Batch though...
We shall see this week just which teams are truly deserving of their spots on this list. I only hope the Ravens can improve to 9-2 going into their big home showdown with the Steelers. I hope everyone has a happy Thanksgiving, and make sure to watch plenty of football! AS ALWAYS GO RAVENS!!!
This has been an unpredictable season for the NFL. In sharp contrast to 2011 and 2010, this season has seen the rise of a number teams with high powered defenses and strong running games. The Ravens and Steelers are no longer the best examples of this type of team in the NFL, and teams such as the 49ers, Seahawks, Texans, and Bears have demonstrated the ability to win games and in some cases even lead their respective divisions without a single Superbowl-winning quarterback among them. Last night demonstrated just how easily replaced the 49ers' starting quarterback Alex Smith was as Colin Kaepernick stepped in and threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns to beat the Bears 32-7. The 49ers are such a well balanced team stocked with tons of defensive stars and offensive weapons that all they need on any given day is a reasonably sound quarterback to win games. It reminds me a bit of the Ravens for the last decade. They had pro-bowlers almost everywhere you looked, but mediocre or poor quarterback play. Then they acquired Steve McNair who performed admirably though not at an elite level (he only threw for 3051 yards during his lone full season with the Ravens) and suddenly they went 13-3 during the regular season.
You may have been as shocked as I was to see the 49ers run roughshod over the vaunted Bears defense last night, but the more I thought about it, the less it surprised me. First, playing in Candlestick Park is never easy for a visiting team. The 49ers have a great home crowd, and thus, a great homefield advantage. Beyond that, the Bears defense is the same as that of the 49ers. The Bears defense has found success because of turnovers. Turnovers are a great thing for any defense to excel at creating, but they're not a statistic that a team can reliably count on. The Bears certainly haven't been lucky as they've consistently created turnovers all season long to lead the NFL with 36. That does not mean, however, that they can always count on other teams to fumble the ball or throw interceptions. Last night was an example of what happens to the Bears defense when an opposing a team secures the football. In contrast, the 49ers are just about the best in the league at suffocating opposing offenses with vicious pass rushers (Alson Smith) and powerful run stuffers (Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis). The 49ers have only forced 14 turnovers on the season with 5 interceptions and 9 forced fumbles, but they have held opposing quarterbacks to 182.9 yards per game, and opposing teams to 94.3 yards per game on the ground.
Aside of defense, the 49ers simply have more offensive weapons than the Bears. Both teams started back-up quarterbacks, but Kaepernick had Vernon Davis, Mario Manningham, and Michael Crabtree at his disposal and the Bears' quarterback, Jason Campbell, had only Brandon Marshall. The 49ers also outclassed the Bears in the running department as Frank Gore averaged 4.6 yards per carry in contrast to Matt Forte of the Bears with 3 yards per carry. As with just about any defense, the longer they're on the field, the worse they perform. The Bears offense could not sustain drives for almost the entire game, and that resulted in a totally exhausted Bears defense that most likely had little energy and explosion that typically results in the creation of turnovers. In fact, the Bears usual starting Quarterback, Jay Cutler, has a curve of success over the course of each game that proves condusive to keeping the defense well rested and ready to make plays. At the beginning of November, Cutler led the NFL with a forth quarter QB rating of 132 and a 73.9 completion percentage. His average quarterback rating in the first quarter was less than half of that and it increased by leaps an bounds with each successive quarter. This worked perfectly as it meant the offense took over games late to give the defense a break. Fast forward to last night and Jason Campbell simply couldn't duplicate that type of success. The 49ers proved a more complete team in every phase of the game and totally dominated a Bears team that desperately needs its starting QB back.
With all of that said, the Bears are still 7-3 and they remain contenders for the playoffs and Superbowl. The NFC only has one team with more than 7 wins, and that team, the Atlanta Falcons, has shown that even poor teams can stand toe to toe with them play games that come right down to the wire. On the AFC side, the Texans are still leading the conference with 9 wins, but they also have shown their vulnerablility as they narrowly beat a team with only a single win and allowed that team to score 37 points on their highly touted defense in an overtime nailbiter on Sunday afternoon. The team with the second best record in the AFC is the Ravens. They're the only team in the NFL with 8 wins, and won a defensive battle against the Steelers on Sunday night to solidify their spot atop the AFC North. I've read, however, a startling number of fans and commentators describe the Ravens as "pretenders" or "worse than their record suggests" as a result of the disparity between the quality of play on the road and at home. This disparity is quite apparent as the Ravens offense has scored an average 36.8 points per game, but that very same offense has only managed 16.6 points on the road. Fortunately for the Ravens, 16.6 points per game on the road has been enough to give them a winning road record of 3-2 that could easily be 4-1 if not for a bogus penalty from replacement referees that nullified what would have been a game-winning touchdown in week two against the Eagles.
When you hear Ravens players and staff comment on their offensive woes on the road, they often try to suggest that there is really no good reason why their offense doesn't work nearly as well on the road as it does in M and T Bank Stadium. They chalk it up to execution problems and not having a home crowd behind them. This is partly true, but it's also partly a total crock. Yes, it's always great to have a strong home crowd behind you, and yes the Ravens appear to have execution problems on the road, but it's quite clear that Cam Cameron and the rest of the coaching staff are totally oblivious as to WHY there are such problems executing on the road. Anyone who watched Sunday night's game could see glaring issues in the game plan, not the execution, of the Ravens offense. The offensive line did have trouble opening up holes for Ray Rice, and Joe Flacco appeared off the mark on a number of throws, but the biggest issue appeared to be the routes that Cam Cameron's plays required of the receivers. In situations where the Ravens needed only 2, 4, or 7 yards, Cameron had the Ravens wideouts running deep routes. This total lunacy as the Steelers excel at taking away the deep pass and are far more vulnerable to quick passes on short and intermediate routes. The Ravens such shorter routes extremely well last year and converted many 3rd and even on some critical 4th downs in Pittsburgh to sustain drives and get into the endzone. Completing these short and intermediate passes ultimately opened things up for the deep ball late in the game and ultimately led to the dramatic late game touchdown pass to Torrey Smith.
The Ravens will fortunately not have to face another elite defense on the road during the rest of the regular season. They may, however, have to play on the road at some point in the playoffs, and such a game could very easily be against the Texans. The Ravens simply have to tweak their game plan on the road and put together dominant wins against the likes of the Chargers, Redskins, and Bengals and continue to handle business at home in order to change the minds of those who consider them "pretenders" rather than Superbowl contenders. Now lets get to the WEEK 12 POWER RANKINGS!!
WEEK 12 NFL POWER RANKINGS
I generally see little point in ranking all 32 teams as it's difficult and trivial to try to argue that one bad team is slightly worse or better than another. With that said, I'll rank the top 12 teams as that is the number of teams that advance to the playoffs. Mind you that these are power rankings, not simply a list of teams ranked by record, so dont' be surprised when some teams get outranked by other with less wins and more losses. I take injuries, strength of schedule, and current performance level into account with these. I place less stock in overall record as this season saw a good number of losses for great teams during the first month under the watch of replacement referees. Enjoy!
1. HOUSTON TEXANS- The Texans have shown their vulnerability a few times this season, but only one of those times has resulted in a loss. Even a close win over a bad team such as the Jaguars is still a a win. The Jaguars will also be a tough team to beat going forward if Chad Henne can continue to play at that level. The remainder of the regular season will be a big test for the Texans as they play 4 of their next 6 games on the road including difficult matchups with the Patriots and Colts.
2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- The 49ers may have just got a lot better last night when they started Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. He looked athletic, mobile, and accurate enough to take this team to the next level. On top of that, he did so against a typically dominant Bears defense. I have a STRONG hunch we'll see these guys in the NFC Championship game.
3. ATLANTA FALCONS- I'm not usually sold on the Falcons despite great regular season statistics and record. It is, however, impossible to argue with 9-1 as there are no easy teams to beat in the NFL. The Falcons have faced only one team all season that currently has a winning record (the Broncos) and that team had not yet found its offensive rhythm at the time. The Falcons will have plenty of chances to prove themselves as they face the red-hot Buccaneers twice, the Saints again, the Giants, and the Lions in Detroit for the remainder of the regular season. I have a feeling they'll lose at least 2 more games during that stretch though.
4. DENVER BRONCOS- Yes this team has 3 losses, but Peyton Manning has taken charge of the offense after a rocky start, and the Broncos defense is strong enough and creates enough turnovers to give the future hall-of-famer plenty of opportunities to score. This ranking could change rapidly, however, as Willis McGahee will not play for the rest of the regular season with a torn MCL. We'll have to see how Denver is able to play without him against the Chiefs and Buccaneers over the next two weeks. They might have been my choice for #1 had it not been for this major blow to their running game.
5. BALTIMORE RAVENS- There may be a number of you who disagree with this ranking. You might think their road performances warrant them a lower ranking, but the Ravens are rapidly improving on defense despite major injuries, and they could get a lot better with the return of Pernell McPhee this week. There's also a possibility that James Ihedigbo will be an improvement over an injured Ed Reed. Ed has had a tough season with a torn labrum since week 3, and it's possible that James could provide added speed and power because of his health and youth though he won't command the same respect from opposing QBs that #20 always does. Sunday's matchup against the Chargers will prove if the Ravens are really deserving of this ranking.
6. GREEN BAY PACKERS- The Packers have won their last 5 games. They had an impressive beat down of the Texans in the game following Brian Cushings' ACL tear. Since then, however, they've failed to really dominate lesser teams. This is not the high-flying Packers team of 2011, but they're winning games and that's all you can ask for in the NFL. They head to the Meadowlands this week to face a Giants team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. I expect the Packers to win this game, but if they don't, I doubt they'll go far in the playoffs as they have a virtually nonexistant running game that reders them once again one dimensional on offense.
7. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- The Patriots might be ranked higher except that they're a lot like the Ravens in that they occassionally put on an offensively dominant performance but then barely squeak by lesser teams such as the Bills and Jets. Add to that the major loss of Rob Gronkowski to a broken arm and suddenly this team could be in trouble as they head for a Thanksgiving showdown with the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Patriots will be without Bolden because of his suspension for testing positive for PEDs and of course without Gronk, but they still have enough weapons to win this game and climb the rankings.
8. CHICAGO BEARS- The Bears are 7-3, but I believe they'll fall off the map with the remainder of their schedule. They have 4 tough divisional matchups left and they could easily lose 4 or 5 of their final 6 games to finish 10-6 or 9-7. They win most likely get a wildcard spot, but this team needs to re-establish a running game to convince me that they're still Superbowl contenders. Maybe I'm being too hard on them...
9. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- The Saints are only 5-5, but all 5 of their wins have come in the last 6 games. The Saints have to play the 49ers, the Falcons in Atlanta, the Giants in New York, the Buccaneers, the Cowboys in Dallas, and the Panthers. If they can win 4 or 5 of those last 6 games, they could secure a wildcard spot, but I'm still not sold on them as a legitimate playoff contender as they fare poorly in bad weather conditions.
10. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- This team continues to impress me week after week. After losing 3 of their first 4 games, the Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 to improve to 6-4 on the year. They have done this by running the ball and stopping the run with the leagues best rush defense. Josh Freeman has been on fire with over 2500 passing yards and 21 touchdowns. Doug Martin has exactly 1000 rushing yards so far and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The Bucs' glaring weakness is their 32nd ranked pass defense, and that will be tested to the fullest extent as the Bucs still have to face such pass-heavy offenses as the Saints, Broncos, and Falcons (twice). I believe, however that there's a good chance they'll win 3 or maybe even 4 of their last 6 games to possibly secure a wildcard spot.
11. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Andrew Luck has impressed me a lot this season. He has stepped in and performed far better than two more experienced veterans were able to do with mostly the same team last season. The Colts have had to deal with the temporary loss of their head coach due to cancer treatment, and they've faced a good number of tough opponents thus far in their schedule, but getting so beat down by the Patriots showed that this team still has work to do.
12. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- I really hate this team and I hate putting them on this list. I do, however, have to acknowledge just how good this team is with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. The problem is that he's not currently healthy, and the Steelers could easily lose their next two games in a row while they wait for him to return and fall to 6-6. Assuming that Ben gets healthy, however, the Steelers could then proceed to win out their final 4 games to get to a 10-6 record that will likely secure them a wildcard spot. They're better without Troy Polamalu as he's a total liability in coverage and not much of a tackler anymore. The Steelers also run the ball and stop the run well and that will make them a dangerous team if they can make it to the playoffs. They probably won't win much starting Charlie Batch though...
We shall see this week just which teams are truly deserving of their spots on this list. I only hope the Ravens can improve to 9-2 going into their big home showdown with the Steelers. I hope everyone has a happy Thanksgiving, and make sure to watch plenty of football! AS ALWAYS GO RAVENS!!!
Monday, November 19, 2012
RAVENS DEFENSE STARTS TO CREEP BACK TO DOMINANCE
The title of this post might leave some people wondering how I could use dominance and Ravens defense in the same sentence right now. They allowed the Steelers to rush for 134 yards and let Byron Leftwich run the ball in for a touchdown from 31 yards out. The Ravens have, however, gone 3 games without allowing a single touchdown when opposing teams have been in the redzone, and they're the best team in the NFL by far in redzone defense. This has all taken place without Lardarius Webb, without Ray Lewis, and even without a healthy Pernell McPhee (please note that the pass rush will likely improve further as Mcphee will hopefully return to the field next week against the Chargers). On top of all of that, the Ravens have tightened up to be a top ten defense in points allowed (9th). One might wonder how the Ravens have been able to achieve such improvements with major losses in defensive personnel. Let's take a look, shall we?
Terrell Suggs is not yet at his form from last season. He only has a 13 tackles and a single sack in 4 games back. Last night he admitted that his achilles must not have been quite as good as he originally thought after he failed to run down Byron Leftwich who then took off for a 31 yard touchdown run. With that said, Suggs physical presence helps to stuff the run and forces teams to use two blockers to handle him. You combine that with Haloti Ngata's improved health, and suddenly even if Ngata and Suggs aren't getting to the QB, they force teams to account for them, and that makes way for Paul Kruger and company to rush the passer. Fortunately, Haloti Ngata did have a sack last night, and it appears as though his injuries are mostly healed or at least greatly improved. Pernell McPhee reported feeling 100 percent in practice last week, but was held out against the Steelers. Hopefully he'll be ready to go and will be back to his old, high-motor form of last year that added 6 sacks to the Ravens' season sack total.
The improved Ravens pass rush helped the secondary keep the ball out of the hands of some of the fastest deep threats in the NFL, but the secondary deserves a lot of credit for stepping up in the absence of its most talented cornerback (Webb...not Jimmy Smith). Corey Graham had a beautiful interception to kill a Steelers drive that could have tied the game or given the Steelers the lead. After missing a tackle on Byron Leftwich early on, Pollard returned to wrecking ball form that he utilized to helped stop another late drive with a huge hit that dislodged the ball from Jericho Cotchery's hands. Ed Reed recovered a fumble and then hurdled a tackler on a nice return to set up a Ravens field goal that took momentum away from the Steelers. Cary Williams looked great in pass coverage numerous times, and most certainly should not have been flagged for pass interference on the first pass of the game for minimal contact with the receiver before diving to bat the pass down. Let's also not forget James Ihedigbo's punishing sack late in the game to help crush Pittsburgh's hopes of a late game comeback.
The only area that the Ravens struggled to defend was the run. They allowed 134 yards on the ground and one rushing TD. With that said, they kept the Steelers' running backs out of the endzone and allowed far less rushing yardage than in many of their previous games. Let's not forget how the Chiefs and Cowboys absolutely gashed the Ravens on the ground. Let's also not forget how good the Steelers running game has looked for the past 6 games before last night, and that makes the Ravens defensive performance still appear to be a great improvement.
The Ravens will have their hands full next week in San Diego. Yes, the Chargers have only won two of their last eight games, and both of those wins came against the Chiefs. The Chargers have, however, averaged 22 points per game in their last 6 games, and that's significantly more points than the Ravens have averaged on the road this season. The Ravens are going to have to keep Philip Rivers and company out of the endzone and find away to get an offensive rhythm going against a Chargers defense that is ranked 3rd in the NFL against the run. This does not mean that they should keep the ball out of Ray Rice's hands. On the contrary, they're going to need to put it in his hands frequently to open things up for the pass. The Chargers don't have an amazing pass defense and they've allowed 21.25 points per game at home this season, but they've only played 4 home games thus far, and two have been against high-flying pass offenses led by Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan. It's now on Cam Cameron to put together a game plan to exploit a 23rd ranked Chargers pass defense and secure another road victory before the Steelers come to Baltimore. If the Ravens defense plays as well next week as they did last night, then the Ravens should be in good position to win. At 8-2, I think it's time people starting betting on Baltimore. AS ALWAYS GO RAVENS!!!
Terrell Suggs is not yet at his form from last season. He only has a 13 tackles and a single sack in 4 games back. Last night he admitted that his achilles must not have been quite as good as he originally thought after he failed to run down Byron Leftwich who then took off for a 31 yard touchdown run. With that said, Suggs physical presence helps to stuff the run and forces teams to use two blockers to handle him. You combine that with Haloti Ngata's improved health, and suddenly even if Ngata and Suggs aren't getting to the QB, they force teams to account for them, and that makes way for Paul Kruger and company to rush the passer. Fortunately, Haloti Ngata did have a sack last night, and it appears as though his injuries are mostly healed or at least greatly improved. Pernell McPhee reported feeling 100 percent in practice last week, but was held out against the Steelers. Hopefully he'll be ready to go and will be back to his old, high-motor form of last year that added 6 sacks to the Ravens' season sack total.
The improved Ravens pass rush helped the secondary keep the ball out of the hands of some of the fastest deep threats in the NFL, but the secondary deserves a lot of credit for stepping up in the absence of its most talented cornerback (Webb...not Jimmy Smith). Corey Graham had a beautiful interception to kill a Steelers drive that could have tied the game or given the Steelers the lead. After missing a tackle on Byron Leftwich early on, Pollard returned to wrecking ball form that he utilized to helped stop another late drive with a huge hit that dislodged the ball from Jericho Cotchery's hands. Ed Reed recovered a fumble and then hurdled a tackler on a nice return to set up a Ravens field goal that took momentum away from the Steelers. Cary Williams looked great in pass coverage numerous times, and most certainly should not have been flagged for pass interference on the first pass of the game for minimal contact with the receiver before diving to bat the pass down. Let's also not forget James Ihedigbo's punishing sack late in the game to help crush Pittsburgh's hopes of a late game comeback.
The only area that the Ravens struggled to defend was the run. They allowed 134 yards on the ground and one rushing TD. With that said, they kept the Steelers' running backs out of the endzone and allowed far less rushing yardage than in many of their previous games. Let's not forget how the Chiefs and Cowboys absolutely gashed the Ravens on the ground. Let's also not forget how good the Steelers running game has looked for the past 6 games before last night, and that makes the Ravens defensive performance still appear to be a great improvement.
The Ravens will have their hands full next week in San Diego. Yes, the Chargers have only won two of their last eight games, and both of those wins came against the Chiefs. The Chargers have, however, averaged 22 points per game in their last 6 games, and that's significantly more points than the Ravens have averaged on the road this season. The Ravens are going to have to keep Philip Rivers and company out of the endzone and find away to get an offensive rhythm going against a Chargers defense that is ranked 3rd in the NFL against the run. This does not mean that they should keep the ball out of Ray Rice's hands. On the contrary, they're going to need to put it in his hands frequently to open things up for the pass. The Chargers don't have an amazing pass defense and they've allowed 21.25 points per game at home this season, but they've only played 4 home games thus far, and two have been against high-flying pass offenses led by Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan. It's now on Cam Cameron to put together a game plan to exploit a 23rd ranked Chargers pass defense and secure another road victory before the Steelers come to Baltimore. If the Ravens defense plays as well next week as they did last night, then the Ravens should be in good position to win. At 8-2, I think it's time people starting betting on Baltimore. AS ALWAYS GO RAVENS!!!
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
WEEK 11 NFL PREDICTIONS...IT'S RAVENS-STEELERS WEEK!!!
The Steelers played poorly at home against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night. Mike Wallace hauled in a spectacular one-armed grab for the Steelers only touchdown, but other than that, the boys in black and yellow simply could do little against a team that had never led during regulation before this particular game...and this was all before Ben Roethlisberger came out due to a shoulder injury. Word just surfaced that Big Ben won't play, and the Steelers are set to start Byron Leftwich. The Ravens are 4-0 against Big Ben's back-ups, and I have little doubt that first digit will change to a 5 on Sunday night.
Yes, the Steelers' defense has improved, and yes they're leading the NFL in defense--but only if you measure defense by yardage allowed. If one measures defense based on points allowed then the Steelers rank 7th, and they haven't faced many impressive teams thus far. The best team they faced was the Broncos, but that was during a period where Peyton Manning had not yet gotten in synch with his receivers and taken control of his offense (the Broncos still scored 31 points on the Steelers). The Broncos and the Giants are, in fact, the only two teams with winning records that the Steelers have faced. The Ravens have only faced two teams that currently have winning records (the Patriots and Texans), but no one is bringing the Ravens up in a conversation about the league's best defense. Well, CLOSE to no one is bringing up the Ravens in a conversation about the league's best defense.
Mike Tomlin stated yesterday that the Ravens have the best redzone defense in the NFL, and that is accurate. It's an important statistic as it is the reason the Ravens have only allowed 2.11 points per game more than Pittsburgh's supposedly league-leading D. Dannell Ellerbe is truly stepping up in place of Ray Lewis, Cary Williams is finally starting to make plays on the ball, Terrell Suggs' presense has elevated the pass rush and run defense, Bernard Pollard is once again punishing anyone who dares to possess the ball, and Courtney Upshaw gets better by leaps and bounds every week. There's still a void left by Lardarius Webb, and Ed Reed is rendered far less effective by his torn labrum, but #20 should have a big week with at least 1-2 picks against Byron Leftwich's painfully slow release.
Troy Polamalu has long been compared to Ed Reed and the debate over which safety is better has raged for years. Ed is unquestionably better, but that's a moot point as Troy is not even playing this season, and that is one big factor about which Joe Flacco will no longer have to worry. The Head and Shoulders spokesman picked off Flacco to end #5's rookie campaign to get to the Superbowl and strip-sacked the same QB in Baltimore a few years later to take a home playoff game away from the Ravens. Suddenly that crazy-haired Samoan will be watching from the sidelines instead of lurking near the line of scrimmage.
In addition to Troy P. and Big Ben, the Steelers will be dealing with the absence of Antonio Brown. The speedy young receiver hasn't had the numbers that many expected from him this season, but he helps to spread the field and must always be accounted for when he is in the game. He'll once again be replaced by the slower Jericho Cotchery. Cotchery is liable to catch a ball or two per game, but he's not a game-breaker the way Brown could be. People thought the Ravens were crippled by injuries to Ray Lewis, Lardarius Webb, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, and Haloti Ngata, but the injuries to Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu, and Antonio Brown will almost certainly prove more costly. The games between these teams are seldom blowouts, especially in Pittsburgh, but this particular contest should tilt in favor of the Ravens, and I don't think there are many who would argue with that. SUNDAY NIGHT CAN'T COME FAST ENOUGH!!! Ok, now let's get to the weekly predictions.
WEEK 11 NFL PREDICTIONS
Last week I went 10-4 in my predictions to put the total on the year to 47-22. I again apologize for neglecting to post my week 9 predictions, but week 10 went pretty well. Only one game had me truly frustrated as the 49ers tied the Rams 24-24 to rob me of another correct prediction. Let's hope nothing that dumb happens this week.
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- It's tough to tell who's going to show up on any given week in the AFC East, but I have a feeling the Bills are going to get this one done at home. MY PREDICTION: BILLS 21-13.
CARDINALS AT FALCONS- *YAAAAAAWWWN* MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 38-17.
BROWNS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys are starting to look better and they've had a VERY tough schedule. This game will mark the first time this season that the Cowboys will have had consecutive wins this season. Who knows? They might just overtake the Giants if they can minimize their mistakes going forward. MY PREDICTION: COWBOYS 28-16.
PACKERS AT LIONS- Aaron Rodgers will take care of business here, and if he doesn't, well then I dunno what to think about the Packers. MY PREDICTION: PACKERS 28-20.
BENGALS AT CHIEFS- The Bengals shouldn't look at this game as an easy one. The Chiefs have lost to incredibly close games to the top two AFC North teams. In the end, the thigh injury that I saw to Dwayne Bowe will probably play a big factor here. The Bengals should find a way to win this one, but I wouldn't be even a little surprised if the Chiefs pull an upset here. MY PREDICTION: BENGALS 17-13.
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- This is gonna be a week where RG3 wins big against an Eagles team that's starting a rookie QB who threw two pick 6's inside a minute against the Cowboys last week. MY PREDICTION: REDSKINS 33-10.
BUCCANEERS AT PANTEHRS- The Bucs are really warming up and I have a feeling they could even win a playoff game at the rate they're going. MY PREDICTION: BUCCANEERS 42-23.
JAGUARS AT TEXANS- So I guess I'll get a second nap after the Cardinals Falcons game...I'll need my rest for later that night! MY PREDICTION: TEXANS 35-9.
JETS AT RAMS- The Jets are falling apart and the Rams can still win a game or two. MY PREDICTION: RAMS 24-16.
SAINTS AT RAIDERS- The Saints are really hot right now and the Raiders lack a running game. MY PREDICTION: SAINTS 35-23.
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- Peyton Manning finally found his rhythm the last time these two teams met. Phillip Rivers also completed a lot of passes...to the Broncos secondary. I see no reason why the Chargers should win this game. MY PREDICTION: BRONCOS 31-19.
COLTS AT PATRIOTS- This should be quite a game, and the Patriots aren't dominant the way they were last year, but I simply don't like to bet against the Patriots at home. I really hope Andrew Luck proves me wrong here. MY PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 33-27.
RAVENS AT STEELERS- The Steelers have never beat the Ravens with Big Ben's back-ups and they're not going to start now. This will continue the Ravens second straight sweep of their division. MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 24-17.
BEARS AT 49ERS- Both of these teams have fantastic defenses and concussed quarterbacks. The 49ers, however, have a better running game and homefield advantage. MY PREDICTION: 49ERS 17-13.
I'd like to say that I'm looking forward to watching a lot of football this week, but every game that ISN'T the Sunday night game is just going to feel meaningless. AS ALWAYS GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, November 8, 2012
WEEK 10 NFL PREDICTIONS
I can't say that I'm excited about tonight's matchup between the Jaguars and Colts. Yes, Andrew Luck has proved just as good as many thought he'd be, but few predicted that he would have exactly the same number of passing yards (2,404) as Manning with the exact same team record (5-3). No, Luck is nowhere near the offensive general that Peyton Manning has been for so many years, but he certainly has the potential to turn into such an elite quarterback--and soon.
Unfortunately for us, Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning are not facing off this evening. Instead, the Colts are facing a team that has won a single game thus far. That single win, however, came against the Colts in week. Since then, the Colts have improved to 5-3 as Luck has continued his rapid development, and the Jaguars have dropped the last 5 straight games to enter this week 1-7. Divisional games are tough to predict, but I have little doubt that the Colts will make short work of possibly the worst team in football.
Despite a boring Thursday night matchup, there are some games for which I am anxious to watch this weekend. The biggest matchup of week 10 will also be the last. The Houston Texans will travel to Chicago to face off against a Bears team with the same record of 7-1. Aside of matching records, the Bears and Texans both suffered their only loss to the Green Bay Packers. Both teams possess strong defenses, but the Texans have a better quarterback and more overall offensive firepower. The Bears' defense has shown that it can consistently make up for a lack of offensive might by scoring defensive points and giving its own offense a short field with turnovers. This should be quite a game.
The second most exciting matchup should be the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons traveling to play the Saints in New Orleans. The Falcons haven't played a single team with a winning record yet, and it is for this reason that a lot of analysts and fans have a difficult time referring to them as the league's best team despite their flawless record. The Saints have fallen far from the dominant team that crushed teams last season, but they've picked up a bit of an offensive rhythm recently and have won three out of their last four games. Both teams play well in domes, but New Orleans is going to have a big advantage being at home. This is a divisional battle that you don't want to miss.
Another interesting though less exciting matchup will be the recently surging Detroit Lions facing the Vikings in Minnesota. The Vikings began the year by going 4-1 through their first 5 games, but have since lost 3 out of their last 4 and may soon cease to be relevant in the playoff conversation with other teams in their division looking quite strong as of late. The Lions probably won't go to the playoffs with the schedule that's ahead of them. If they win this game, however, they'll improve to 5-4 with a fighting chance of winning a wildcard spot. This isn't a monumental game, but it'll still be worth watching.
I will, of course, also be excited to watch the Ravens play the Raiders in Baltimore, but it will hardly be an exciting matchup if Darren McFadden can't play. Two out of the three Raiders' wins have come against teams with only one win on the season. The Raiders beat the Steelers in Oakland, but the Steelers were still trying to find their footing while dealing with injuries to major starters. Carson Palmer certainly knows the Ravens well, but he no longer has the benefit of an outstanding receiving corps, a solid running game, and a stout defense to give him an edge over the Ravens--especially in Baltimore. I'm hoping this game will be more about the Ravens putting together a complete and dominant performance on both offense and defense to build some momentum going into Pittsburgh the following week. The Raiders shouldn't be overlooked, but they're clearly not a team to be feared--especially in Baltimore. Now on to the week 10 predictions!!
WEEK 10 NFL PREDICTIONS
COLTS AT JAGUARS- You neve know what can happen in divisional games, and the Jaguars did already beat the Colts earlier this season, but Andrew Luck has simply looked to good in the last month to lose another game to this awful team. MY PREDICTION: COLTS 24-12.
GIANTS AT BENGALS- The Giants looked pretty bad against the Steelers, but the Giants often play quite poorly at home and brilliantly on the road...who the hell knows why. 2 out of the Giants 3 losses have been at home, and the only road loss they've had was a divisional matchup against the Eagles wherein the Giants missed what would have been a game-winning field goal. The Bengals have lost their last four games, but the last two were close losses to strong Steelers and Broncos teams. Bengals don't have the defense to stop the Giants offense, and they don't have the receiving corps or the quarterback needed to shred the Giants defense. MY PREDICTION: GIANTS 31-24.
TITANS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins are simply a stronger team than the Titans this year and should come away with a win at home in this one. Expect the Titans to try to pick on the Dolphins secondary, and but also expect the Titans to struggle to stop the Dolphins rushing attack. MY PREDICTION: DOLPHINS 26-23.
LIONS AT VIKINGS- Stafford is back on track right now, and the Vikings will have problems with Percy Harvin less than 100% if he plays at all. MY PREDICTION: LIONS 31-17.
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- Hmmmmmm *scratches head*. MY PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 42-21.
FALCONS AT SAINTS- This will certainly be a close game as almost none of the Falcons' games have been decisive victories thus far. I think their winning streak will come to an end in New Orleans this week. MY PREDICTION: SAINTS 35-30.
CHARGERS AT BUCCANEERS- I like the Bucs in this matchup. The Chargers simply aren't what they once were offensively. I'm hoping for a good game from Vincent Jackson against this former team. MY PREDICTION: BUCCANEERS 33-21.
BRONCOS AT PANTHERS- The Broncos should win this game, but it should be noted that Panthers have only barely lost to some serious teams in the last 5 weeks and they beat the Redskins pretty soundly last weekend. I assume this game will be decided by a touchdown or less, but this could be a big upset for the Broncos, especially since they'll be playing on the road. MY PREDICTION: BRONCOS 28-21.
RAIDERS AT RAVENS- The Ravens should win this game. They tend to run the ball more heavily in the second half of the season under the play-calling of Cam Cameron, and last weekend was a good example. Expect Ray Rice to touch the ball 25+ times and Flacco to involve Dennis Pitta more than in the last 4-5 weeks. This game should help to prepare the Ravens for other upcoming games against teams gunslinger QBs that will likely look to exploit a weakened Ravens secondary. I hope to see more "bend but don't break defense" and a solid dose of the no-huddle from Flacco. MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 28-17.
JETS AT SEAHAWKS- The Jets offense is simply not strong enough to put many points up on the Seattle defense. The Jets also have serious issues stopping the run and I fully expect Marshawn Lynch to exploit that to a great degree. The Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Now, granted, 3 of those games have come against some pretty dangerous opponents, but their 30-9 loss against the Dolphins showed just how vulnerable they can be to teams that can run the football well. MY PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 20-13.
COWBOYS AT EAGLES- This is a classic showdown of two teams I couldn't possibly care less about at this point. Each team has talented players and over-hyped QBs that we tend to never see in the playoffs. This is a divisional matchup that could go either way, but somehow I see the Cowboys squeaking this one out in the end. MY PREDICTION: COWBOYS 27-21
RAMS AT 49ERS- Good luck, Rams...you'll need it. MY PREDICTION: 49ERS 35-12.
TEXANS AT BEARS- This one is tough to predict. Most of the Texans' home games have been rather convincing wins, but they've only played 3 games thus far on the road and two of them have been rather close. The Bears' last two home games, however, have been rather narrow wins against lesser opponents. The Bears have had most of their dominant wins on the road this season and don't appear to have a particularly strong homefield advantage. A team must have a very good quarterback to find the weaknesses in this Texans' defense (hint: there are very few) and that's not something the Bears have. I'll be rooting for the Bears here, but I expect the Texans to squeak this one out in dramatic fashion. MY PREDICTION: TEXANS 24-17.
CHIEFS AT STEELERS- I hate it when I have to say this, but the Steelers are going to win this game. MY PREDICTION: STEELERS 35-10.
Obviously, nothing will be more exciting than see the Ravens truly unleash their offense the way they did in week one. I just hope that's actually what they do. They're going to need practice at being explosive on offense at home to get ready to outscore a surging Steelers team and the Manning brothers down the stretch. Winning on the road is going to be tough, but some of their toughest opponents will be at home as well and they'll need to be able to win regardless of the setting in the second half. As always GO RAVENS!!!
Unfortunately for us, Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning are not facing off this evening. Instead, the Colts are facing a team that has won a single game thus far. That single win, however, came against the Colts in week. Since then, the Colts have improved to 5-3 as Luck has continued his rapid development, and the Jaguars have dropped the last 5 straight games to enter this week 1-7. Divisional games are tough to predict, but I have little doubt that the Colts will make short work of possibly the worst team in football.
Despite a boring Thursday night matchup, there are some games for which I am anxious to watch this weekend. The biggest matchup of week 10 will also be the last. The Houston Texans will travel to Chicago to face off against a Bears team with the same record of 7-1. Aside of matching records, the Bears and Texans both suffered their only loss to the Green Bay Packers. Both teams possess strong defenses, but the Texans have a better quarterback and more overall offensive firepower. The Bears' defense has shown that it can consistently make up for a lack of offensive might by scoring defensive points and giving its own offense a short field with turnovers. This should be quite a game.
The second most exciting matchup should be the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons traveling to play the Saints in New Orleans. The Falcons haven't played a single team with a winning record yet, and it is for this reason that a lot of analysts and fans have a difficult time referring to them as the league's best team despite their flawless record. The Saints have fallen far from the dominant team that crushed teams last season, but they've picked up a bit of an offensive rhythm recently and have won three out of their last four games. Both teams play well in domes, but New Orleans is going to have a big advantage being at home. This is a divisional battle that you don't want to miss.
Another interesting though less exciting matchup will be the recently surging Detroit Lions facing the Vikings in Minnesota. The Vikings began the year by going 4-1 through their first 5 games, but have since lost 3 out of their last 4 and may soon cease to be relevant in the playoff conversation with other teams in their division looking quite strong as of late. The Lions probably won't go to the playoffs with the schedule that's ahead of them. If they win this game, however, they'll improve to 5-4 with a fighting chance of winning a wildcard spot. This isn't a monumental game, but it'll still be worth watching.
I will, of course, also be excited to watch the Ravens play the Raiders in Baltimore, but it will hardly be an exciting matchup if Darren McFadden can't play. Two out of the three Raiders' wins have come against teams with only one win on the season. The Raiders beat the Steelers in Oakland, but the Steelers were still trying to find their footing while dealing with injuries to major starters. Carson Palmer certainly knows the Ravens well, but he no longer has the benefit of an outstanding receiving corps, a solid running game, and a stout defense to give him an edge over the Ravens--especially in Baltimore. I'm hoping this game will be more about the Ravens putting together a complete and dominant performance on both offense and defense to build some momentum going into Pittsburgh the following week. The Raiders shouldn't be overlooked, but they're clearly not a team to be feared--especially in Baltimore. Now on to the week 10 predictions!!
WEEK 10 NFL PREDICTIONS
COLTS AT JAGUARS- You neve know what can happen in divisional games, and the Jaguars did already beat the Colts earlier this season, but Andrew Luck has simply looked to good in the last month to lose another game to this awful team. MY PREDICTION: COLTS 24-12.
GIANTS AT BENGALS- The Giants looked pretty bad against the Steelers, but the Giants often play quite poorly at home and brilliantly on the road...who the hell knows why. 2 out of the Giants 3 losses have been at home, and the only road loss they've had was a divisional matchup against the Eagles wherein the Giants missed what would have been a game-winning field goal. The Bengals have lost their last four games, but the last two were close losses to strong Steelers and Broncos teams. Bengals don't have the defense to stop the Giants offense, and they don't have the receiving corps or the quarterback needed to shred the Giants defense. MY PREDICTION: GIANTS 31-24.
TITANS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins are simply a stronger team than the Titans this year and should come away with a win at home in this one. Expect the Titans to try to pick on the Dolphins secondary, and but also expect the Titans to struggle to stop the Dolphins rushing attack. MY PREDICTION: DOLPHINS 26-23.
LIONS AT VIKINGS- Stafford is back on track right now, and the Vikings will have problems with Percy Harvin less than 100% if he plays at all. MY PREDICTION: LIONS 31-17.
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- Hmmmmmm *scratches head*. MY PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 42-21.
FALCONS AT SAINTS- This will certainly be a close game as almost none of the Falcons' games have been decisive victories thus far. I think their winning streak will come to an end in New Orleans this week. MY PREDICTION: SAINTS 35-30.
CHARGERS AT BUCCANEERS- I like the Bucs in this matchup. The Chargers simply aren't what they once were offensively. I'm hoping for a good game from Vincent Jackson against this former team. MY PREDICTION: BUCCANEERS 33-21.
BRONCOS AT PANTHERS- The Broncos should win this game, but it should be noted that Panthers have only barely lost to some serious teams in the last 5 weeks and they beat the Redskins pretty soundly last weekend. I assume this game will be decided by a touchdown or less, but this could be a big upset for the Broncos, especially since they'll be playing on the road. MY PREDICTION: BRONCOS 28-21.
RAIDERS AT RAVENS- The Ravens should win this game. They tend to run the ball more heavily in the second half of the season under the play-calling of Cam Cameron, and last weekend was a good example. Expect Ray Rice to touch the ball 25+ times and Flacco to involve Dennis Pitta more than in the last 4-5 weeks. This game should help to prepare the Ravens for other upcoming games against teams gunslinger QBs that will likely look to exploit a weakened Ravens secondary. I hope to see more "bend but don't break defense" and a solid dose of the no-huddle from Flacco. MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 28-17.
JETS AT SEAHAWKS- The Jets offense is simply not strong enough to put many points up on the Seattle defense. The Jets also have serious issues stopping the run and I fully expect Marshawn Lynch to exploit that to a great degree. The Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Now, granted, 3 of those games have come against some pretty dangerous opponents, but their 30-9 loss against the Dolphins showed just how vulnerable they can be to teams that can run the football well. MY PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 20-13.
COWBOYS AT EAGLES- This is a classic showdown of two teams I couldn't possibly care less about at this point. Each team has talented players and over-hyped QBs that we tend to never see in the playoffs. This is a divisional matchup that could go either way, but somehow I see the Cowboys squeaking this one out in the end. MY PREDICTION: COWBOYS 27-21
RAMS AT 49ERS- Good luck, Rams...you'll need it. MY PREDICTION: 49ERS 35-12.
TEXANS AT BEARS- This one is tough to predict. Most of the Texans' home games have been rather convincing wins, but they've only played 3 games thus far on the road and two of them have been rather close. The Bears' last two home games, however, have been rather narrow wins against lesser opponents. The Bears have had most of their dominant wins on the road this season and don't appear to have a particularly strong homefield advantage. A team must have a very good quarterback to find the weaknesses in this Texans' defense (hint: there are very few) and that's not something the Bears have. I'll be rooting for the Bears here, but I expect the Texans to squeak this one out in dramatic fashion. MY PREDICTION: TEXANS 24-17.
CHIEFS AT STEELERS- I hate it when I have to say this, but the Steelers are going to win this game. MY PREDICTION: STEELERS 35-10.
Obviously, nothing will be more exciting than see the Ravens truly unleash their offense the way they did in week one. I just hope that's actually what they do. They're going to need practice at being explosive on offense at home to get ready to outscore a surging Steelers team and the Manning brothers down the stretch. Winning on the road is going to be tough, but some of their toughest opponents will be at home as well and they'll need to be able to win regardless of the setting in the second half. As always GO RAVENS!!!
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