Wednesday, November 27, 2013

RAVENS VS. STEELERS...ARE YOU READY FOR A WAR??

     With just over 24 hours to go before the Ravens and Steelers kick off in front of a national audience, it's hard to not feel at least a little bit nervous.  It wasn't long ago that the Steelers appeared incapable of winning a game and doomed to finish in last place in a division saturated with mediocrity, but now they appear to be the hottest team in the AFC North with 5 wins in their last 7 games.  It's not that the Steelers suddenly appear unbeatable.  They did suffer their third loss in the last 5 years to the Oakland Raiders in Week 8, and the Patriots thoroughly exposed what was thought to be an elite Steelers pass defense at Foxborough in Week 9.  Since then, however, the Steelers beat the Bills and Lions in convincing wins in Pittsburgh and beat the Browns in Cleveland last week.  The Ravens, meanwhile, won their last two home games against teams that were, at that time, in possession of a playoff spot based on their respective records.  The Ravens, in fact, have only lost a single home game on the season, and that loss came at the hands of arguably the most talented quarterback in the NFL during the last 3 years, Aaron Rodgers.  The question remains: which is a stronger indicator of a possible win tomorrow, the Ravens' strong home record and recent home success or the Steelers' current 3-game winning streak?
     I've always preached that in order to have success analyzing and predicting the outcome of NFL games one must ignore irrelevant statistics.  That philosophy has led me to a near-spotless playoff prediction record wherein I picked against Las Vegas oddsmakers from week one of the playoffs and accurately predicted the last two Super Bowl winners despite the Ravens and Giants being underdogs in almost every single post-season game they played.  It's easy to say one should ignore irrelevant statistics, but the hard part is correctly determining which statistics are truly relevant to a particular matchup.  Homefield advantage in the NFL is often a huge factor, especially with the Ravens.  With that said, the Steelers have still managed to win in Baltimore numerous times during the Joe Flacco era.  One of those wins came last season as James Harrison strip-sacked Joe Flacco to give the Steelers a short field that set up what ended up being the game winning score in a game the Ravens appeared to have wrapped up.
     Last season, however, the Ravens and Steelers were both much different teams than the ones that will square off tomorrow night.  Hell, the Ravens and Steelers are even both somewhat different teams than the ones that faced one another earlier this season.  Last season the Steelers possessed the strongest defense in the NFL as it pertained to yardage allowed per game.  Despite the lengthy absence of Troy Polamalu, the Steelers secondary proved quite strong.  There was even a time during the middle of last season that analysts considered the Steelers to be a serious playoffs contender based on some impressive wins.  The Ravens, meanwhile, went 9-2 through the first 11 weeks of last season in large part because of a higher octane Ravens offense that was forced to pick up the slack for a Ravens defense that lacked a healthy Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, and Lardarius Webb for long stretches.  Fortunately for the Ravens, they set a franchise scoring record and averaged just over 30 points per game.  Maybe the Ravens also had just a touch of luck with incredibly close plays such as the world's closest game-winning field goal against the Patriots and the conversion on 4th and 29 that saved what would have been a heartbreaking loss in San Diego.
     Fast forward to 2013 where we've seen a Steelers team whose defense has fallen off significantly, but whose offense has more than made up for defensive shortcomings as of late.  Meanwhile, the Ravens suddenly find themselves unable to consistently and effectively block which has led to a catastrophic dip in their offensive production despite a return to top 10 status for their defense.  Joe Flacco no longer has reliable targets to which he can pass or a strong power running game on which his team can lean when the passing game simply isn't clicking.  Flacco no longer enjoys the incredible protection he had during a dominant playoff run that ended in Super Bowl victory.  The Ravens don't even currently have an elite defense by their own historical standards even if it is statistically much improved from last season.
     What the Ravens DO currently possess is a team that has consistently won at home this season and a defense that has recently found success shutting down some impressive offensive weapons.  The Ravens secondary no longer has the greatest free safety of a generation, but it DOES have two rather impressive cornerbacks, Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb.  Those corners have recently held their own against the likes of A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffrey.  The Ravens defense, in fact, held the high octane offense of the Bears to only 16 points in Chicago.  If it weren't for 7 points scored by the Bears' defense, the ravens would have won with a rather impressive defensive road performance.  Against the Bengals, the Ravens defense proved dominant once more.  If it weren't for a bizarre batted ball on what would have ordinarily been an unsuccessful hair mary attempt, the Ravens would have only allowed a typically dominant Bengals offense to score 10 points in the entire game.
     Maybe the Ravens defense hasn't exactly shut down opponents on the road, but at home, the Ravens have allowed an average of only 10.4 points per game this season.  The Ravens have also scored an average of exactly 20 points per game at home, and that has been against some of the league's most impressive defenses.  The Ravens faced the Texans, Browns, Jets, and Bengals at home, all of whom rank in the top ten in total defense this season.  The only non-elite defense the Ravens have faced at home has been the Packers, and they were, at the time, effective enough on offense to take advantage of some serious mistakes on the part of the Ravens coaching staff and beat the Ravens in a venue where few teams have in the last 5 seasons.
     The Ravens won't face a top ten ranked defense tomorrow, but they will face 13th ranked defense in the NFL.  The Steelers pass defense is ranked 10th in the NFL in total passing yards allowed, but that hasn't stopped teams from scoring on them.  The Steelers have allowed an average of 24.5 points per game on the road this season.  Even if one simply counts the games after their bye week, the the Steelers still have allowed an average of 23.25 points per road game.  More importantly, the Steelers have only two road wins this season, and those wins came against the Browns last week and the Jets in Week 6.  The Browns certainly beat the Ravens in Cleveland earlier this season, but that was with a different quarterback than the one that the Steelers faced for most of last week's game.  The Ravens suffocated the Browns when led by Brandon Weeden earlier this year, and it's simply no surprise that the Steelers also able to do so once Jason Campbell left the game.
     As for the Jets, neither the Ravens nor the Steelers should pat themselves on the back too hard for shutting down Geno Smith.  Smith has played so inconsistently that a win against his team isn't some sort of indication that the Steelers or Ravens are back on track.  Both the Ravens and Steelers struggled to move the ball consistently against the Jets and had to settle for field goals from the redzone many more times than they would have preferred.  The point remains, however, that the Steelers have only won two of their six road games this season, and both of those road wins came against offensively anemic teams.  The Jets, after all, have only scored scored an average of 16.9 points per game this season, and the Browns have only scored 18.45 points per game.  More importantly, however, the Browns have only averaged 13.66 points per game when Brandon Weeden has had more than 30 passing attempts.
     One important group of statistics that I should not forget to mention is that which was compiled in Week 7...when the Steelers beat the Ravens in Pittsburgh.  The Ravens, at that point in the season, struggled each week to score points early in games.  They quickly found themselves losing to the Steelers 7-0 as the Steelers drove rapidly downfield on their first drive and scored a touchdown off of a shovel pass to Heath Miller.  The Ravens defense tightened up from that point on, and only allowed the Steelers to score field goals for the rest of the game, but the Ravens offense failed to put the ball into the endzone in critical opportunities that would have given Baltimore a much needed win.  The Ravens had more first downs (19) than the Steelers (17), and they also had one more offensive yard.  The Steelers, however, had more yards per play (5.2) than the Ravens (4.7).  The Steelers out-gained the Ravens on the ground with a 141 rushing yards while the Ravens only amassed 82. 
     Regardless, the Ravens still only lost to the Steelers 19-16 off of a last second field goal.  The Steelers likely won't have nearly the same offensive success in Baltimore, and they also likely won't have nearly as much defensive success keeping the Ravens out of the endzone with major injuries to members of their defensive line.  The Ravens have scored more points on better defenses this season in Baltimore, and they've also shut down more impressive offensive weapons than anything the Steelers possess. Beyond all of that, the Steelers will be without their starting defensive tackle, Steve McClendon, as well as Lamar Woodley.  Brett Keisel will play, but he's not 100%.  On a short week, the healthier team and the home team usually possess a huge advantage.  Fortunately for Baltimore, both the healthier and home team happen to be the Ravens.
     Maybe statistics don't always matter in Ravens-Steelers matchups, but they're basically all we have to go off of when predicting this game.  Both the Ravens and Steelers have looked at least somewhat better recently, and this could end up being another slobber-knocker match with a razor-thin margin of victory.  In a season where wins have been hard to come by for the Ravens and Steelers, this Thanksgiving showdown feels almost as nerve-racking and important as a playoff game.  I've said it many times before this season, but this game is truly do or die for Joe Flacco and company.  The Ravens must beat the Steelers to have any chance to get into the playoffs.  A loss would surely put them too far behind the field of contenders with some difficult opponents still left on the schedule.  The Baltimore fans are behind you, Ravens.  Now go take care of business.

THANKSGIVING PREDICTIONS

PACKERS AT LIONS-  Without Aaron Rodgers there's simply no way the Packers win this game in Detroit.  LION 38-17.

RAIDERS AT COWBOYS-  The Cowboys aren't unbeatable, but the Raiders certainly can't beat them in Dallas.  There's not a whole lot to this game except that the Cowboys will put up some serious points. COWBOYS 42-21. 

STEELERS AT RAVENS-  Divisional matchups are difficult to predict, but the Ravens only narrowly lost to the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and the Ravens have been vastly better at home than on the road this season.  This could be another close game with a 3 point margin of victory, but I believe the Ravens will have far less trouble running the ball this week facing a largely injured Steelers defensive line. The Steelers will prove rather vulnerable in pass defense as Troy Polamalu has been exposed numerous times this season for his inability to perform in pass coverage.  Antonio Brown is having a great season, but was limited to 50 receiving yards last time the Ravens faced the Steelers and was held out of the endzone.  The Steelers, in fact, were limited to only 145 passing yards in total against the Ravens earlier this season, and that was with a homefield advantage.  The Baltimore crowd will enhance the performance of the Ravens defense, and the Ravens pass rush will likely have a big day harassing Big Ben.  This won't be a monumental blowout, but it should be a solid win with a comfortable margin of victory for a Ravens team that has won 4 out of 5 home games this season.  RAVENS 23-16.

THIS IS IT, BALTIMORE
THE MOMENT WE'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR...
IT'S TIME FOR CHARM CITY TO GET LOUD!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! 

Sunday, November 24, 2013

WEEK 12 NFL PICKS

     Peyton Manning is 4-9 against Tom Brady and the Patriots in his career.  With that said, I've talked to a great many people who firmly believe the Broncos will beat the Patriots this Sunday night in Foxborough.  The problem with this prediction is that the Broncos possess a poor defense that performs especially poorly on the road.  The Patriots aren't perfect this season, but their strength of schedule has been tougher than that of the Broncos.   This matchup, nevertheless, will the two greatest quarterbacks of our generation against one another in what could be one of the final years they're both still playing in the NFL.  Peyton Manning is still a great field general, but his body no longer appears strong enough to withstand the punishment of a regular season.  Tom Brady is still effective and healthy, but his team is only a shadow of its former dominant form.  It's been nearly a decade since the Patriots won their last Super Bowl, and despite their consistent winning, it's fair to wonder if they'll get back to championship form before Brady retires.
     For now, the Patriots and Broncos appear to be the best teams in the AFC.  That may be largely due to the copious amount of mediocrity that appears to have enveloped this typically strong half of the NFL, but at 9-1 and 7-3, the Broncos and Patriots are far from mediocre.  Peyton continues to win games despite numerous injuries, and Brady continues to win despite the loss of some of his most potent receiving weapons and defensive supporting cast.  It is for this reason that the Broncos-Patriots game is unquestionably the game of the week and could end up being the best game of the regular season. 
     There are a handful of other notable games that are well worth paying attention to this weekend.  The first of which is the Steelers-Brown game.  Both teams find themselves 4-6 and yet somehow still right in the thick of the playoff hunt.  Both of these teams will also be uncharacteristically rooting for a Ravens win as it would prevent the Jets from distancing themselves from the field of other teams in the hunt for the final wildcard spot.  The Steelers are one of the hottest teams of all of the 4-6 AFC teams, and they beat an impressive Detroit Lions team last week by a solid margin.  The second notable game is the Chargers at Kansas City.  I don't believe the Chargers are a playoff team as they have been awful on the road this season and will soon find themselves in the loudest environment in the AFC.  Next, of course, is the Ravens-Jets game.  This is the Ravens' absolute last stand.  A loss would put the playoffs almost totally out of reach and put the Jets in the driver's seat for the final spot.  We'll see if Dennis Pitta suits up, but I highly doubt it.  We'll see if the Giants can continue their recent winning streak against the Cowboys in New Jersey.  If the Giants can pull out a win, the NFC East race will be incredibly tight with the Eagles barely leading the charge.  The Colts have a tough matchup on the road in Arizona.  It's tough to know which Colts team will show up from week to week, but I believe in Andrew Luck.  The Redskins could beat the 49ers on Monday night, but that will be a tough task as the 49ers are a strong, fairly complete team.  Well without further ado, let's get to the picks!

WEEK 12 NFL PREDICTIONS

STEELERS AT BROWNS-  The Browns have an elite defense this season and play well at home, but the Steelers appear to have found an offensive groove recently.  Jason Campbell has finally started to look like the crappy quarterback we remember from several years ago, and the Steelers have an elite pass defense that should be enough to stifle the Browns offense.  STEELERS 24-17.

BUCCANEERS AT LIONS- The Bucs have looked better lately, but the Lions should get a boost with the return of Nate Burleson and play very well at home.  Let Revis try to cover Megatron...LIONS 34-20.

VIKINGS AT PACKERS- The Vikings have improved enough with the return of Christian Ponder to be able to beat a Rodgersless Packers team.  VIKINGS 28-21.

CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- If the Chargers couldn't beat the Redskins or Dolphins on the road, I have no idea how they'll beat the Chiefs.  CHIEFS 27-19.

BEARS AT RAMS-  The Rams have been the victims of a difficult schedule.  The Bears have a battered, porous defense, but their receiving weapons are simply too potent to not put up enough points to win this game.  The last Rams win was a total anomaly.  BEARS 31-23.

PANTHERS AT DOLPHINS-  The Panthers are on a roll right now that the Dolphins are simply not strong enough to stop.  The Panthers have arguably the best defense in the NFC and Cam Newton is playing out of his mind.  PANTHERS 35-16.

JETS AT RAVENS-  The Ravens are at their best when their backs are against the wall.  The Ravens have only lost one home game this season and the Jets have only won one game this season.  The Jets offense simply doesn't have enough to get it done against a hard-nosed Ravens defense.  As soon as the Ravens take a lead and force Geno to throw the ball, it's over.  The Jets don't have the wide receivers or quarterback execute big plays down field on the Ravens secondary, and the Jets don't have good enough cornerbacks to stop the Ravens' speedy wideouts from beating them deep.  Get ready to run, Dee Milliner.  RAVENS 27-20.

JAGUARS AT TEXANS-  I honestly don't care who wins this game, but without any glimmer of hope or major reason to pick one of these losers or the other, I guess I'll go with the home team.  TEXANS 17-14.

TITANS AT RAIDERS-  The Titans aren't a terrible team, but the Raiders are solid at home.  I like Terrell Pryor in this matchup.  RAIDERS 31-26.

COLTS AT CARDINALS- I know I said I believed in Andew Luck...but I don't believe in the Colts on the road against a winning team.  The Cardinals have won 5 of their last 7 games with their only losses during that time period to the 49ers and Seahawks.  I think the Colts are still a better team, but if they allowed the Titans to put up 27 points, I believe they'll allow Larry Fitzgerald and company to put up at least as much.  CARDINALS 28-24.

COWBOYS AT GIANTS-  The Giants have finally gotten better defensively.  They're on an impressive winning streak that followed an embarrassing losing streak to begin the season.  The Cowboys will be much healthier coming off of a bye week, but their defense will still be woefully inadequate.  This will be a shootout.  The Giants have rounded into a more complete team and the Cowboys have only won a single road game this season.  GIANTS 34-31.

BRONCOS AT PATRIOTS-  I've learned not to bet against the Patriots at home...unless it's the playoffs and the Ravens are in town.  The Peyton Manning has some impressive receiving weapons at his command, but his defense is simply atrocious.  I expect a big game from Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots defense to hold the Broncos to field goals at critical moments.  This game should be frigid and we all know how poorly Peyton Manning's body holds up in cold weather.  PATRIOTS 42-34.

49ERS AT REDSKINS- The 49ers don't have great receivers, but they don't NEED great receivers against the Redskins.  I have a weird feeling that RG3 will come out of this game as soon as he's taken a couple of major hits.  Protect your future investment, Washington, this season is done anyway.   49ERS 26-13.


AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! 

 

 
    

Thursday, November 21, 2013

A LOOK AHEAD TO THE JETS AND THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION

     The New York Jets are the first team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 games a season.  If that trend continues, then the Ravens' playoff hopes will be dashed this Sunday.  Is this alternating trend really something that will continue or does are the Jets' wins and losses simply the result of the types of teams they've been matched up against each week?
     The Jets currently hold the final playoff seed in the AFC.  They have one more win than the Ravens and one less loss.  The Jets have signature wins against the Saints and Patriots, but have been absolutely dominated by lesser teams.  Some have characterized the Jets as inconsistent, any maybe that's true in certain ways.  The Jets have, however, been consistent with the types of opponents they've beaten and the types of opponents to which they've lost.  The Jets have a single road win this season, and that win was against one of the very worst teams in the NFL, the Atlanta Falcons.  The Jets also have a single home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Otherwise, the Jets have lost all of their road games and won all of their home games. 
     In addition to being a poor road team, the Jets seem to struggle against reasonably stout defenses.  The Jets lost to the Titans (ranked 9th in total defense), the Steelers (ranked 13th in total defense), the Bengals (6th in points allowed), and the Patriots (7th in points allowed).  The Jets' most recent loss was on the road to the Buffalo Bills whose defensive stats are skewed by home much better the Bills' defense performs at home than on the road.
     The Jets losses were all against strong defensive teams, and their wins have had a definite pattern as well.  The Jets' wins have typically come against teams that struggle to to stop the run.  The Jets beat the Patriots (27th ranked run defense), the Saints (17th ranked run defense), the Falcons (30th ranked run defense), and the Bills (24th ranked run defense).  The only team the Jets beat with a good run defense was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Jets only barely beat the Buccaneers 18-17.  Additionally, beating the Bucs wasn't exactly impressive as Tampa Bay went on from there to lose their next seven straight games.  Otherwise, the Jets simply haven't been able to win games when they didn't have a dominant enough running game to take pressure off of Geno Smith.  The Bengals held the Jets under 100 rushing yards and forced the Jets to put the ball in Geno Smith's hands.  Smith proved not to be up to the task as he threw for only 4 yards per pass with two interceptions and zero touchdowns.
     The Ravens should have an advantage at home against a Jets team that struggles hard on the road, but that doesn't mean the Jets don't have the capability of making trouble for the defending Super Bowl Champions.  The Jets have arguably the best defensive line in the league, and part of the reason they were able to beat such elite passing teams as the Patriots and Saints is that they were able to put pressure on two of the greatest quarterbacks in the league and force them into throwing key interceptions.  Joe Flacco has had a year filled with interceptions, hits, and pressure due in large part to poor protection and performance from his offensive line.  If the Ravens win, it will likely be because their defense forced Geno Smith to make big mistakes rather than because the Ravens put on an offensive clinic.
    The Jets have a lackluster secondary, and if the Ravens offensive line can give Flacco enough time to get the ball out cleanly, they should have success through the air against Dee Milliner and Antonio Cromartie.  I don't expect Ed Reed to be any more of a factor with the Jets than he was with the #1 ranked defense of the Houston Texans.  If anything Reed will be a liability as he's far slower than in the past, and Joe Flacco spent most of his career practicing against him. 
     The bottom line is that the Jets can run the ball, stop the run, and rush the passer.  The Ravens have a good run defense and should have success if they can stop the Jets from running the ball early and put up points to make the Jets play catch-up and put the ball in the hands of their mistake-prone rookie quarterback.  The Ravens have lost to lesser opponents, but this is a game the Ravens can and should win.

THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION

SAINTS AT FALCONS-  The Falcons have simply shown me nothing this season to make me think they can win this game.  Yes, the Saints aren't as good on the road, but the Falcons are unusually bad on defense this year and have lost much of what made their offense great to injuries.  SAINTS 38-20.

IT'S DO OR DIE FOR THE RAVENS THIS WEEK, LET'S HOPE THEY LIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY...

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!  
     
    

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

COULD THE RETURN OF DENNIS PITTA SAVE THE RAVENS' SEASON?

     Dennis Pitta practiced with his team today for the first time since dislocating his hip during the preseason.  Many Ravens fans undoubtedly became excited at the prospect of seeing Pitta back on the field in the coming weeks to potentially add a missing piece to the Ravens offensive puzzle that could push narrow losses into the win column.  Other fans immediately clamored for the Ravens to sit Pitta out as the team will need him fully healthy for 2014,  but which of these courses of action is more realistic and prudent?  Also, what effect will a healthy Pitta have on the Ravens offense if he's able to come back at close to full strength?   Well let's take a look at the facts.
     Dennis Pitta is in a contract year.  It behooves Pitta to play at least some games this season to show any potentially interested teams that he's healthy and capable of playing next season.  If he sits out entirely then teams will assume his injury was extremely serious and his value as a free agent will likely drop at least somewhat.  It is for this reason that John Harbaugh stated that Pitta, barring any setbacks, will play at some point this season.  The idea of sitting him longer to make sure he's healthy is apparently unnecessary as Pitta's injury simply wasn't as serious as originally feared.  There was no damage to connective tissue, and that means that there was only muscular damage which heals much more quickly than ligaments or tendons.
    Assuming that Pitta has healed completely upon taking the field during a game for the first time this season, his presence should immediately help the Ravens in a couple of noticeable ways.  The first of which is Pitta's pass-catching ability.  Pitta has undoubtedly the best hands on the team.  He is a proven chain mover and great on third downs.  During the Ravens spectacular 23-20 win over the Steelers in the the 2011 regular season, Pitta caught six catches that all converted on third downs.  Part of Pitta's talent for converting third downs is his hands, but the other major part is his ability to find soft spots in opposing defenses and get yards after the catch.  Pitta stands at 6'5", and while he's not known for his speed, he uses great moves, vertical leaping ability, and strength to break tackles and continue up field.  The Ravens have often struggled to sustain drives because of a lack of consistent tight end play this season, and that should no longer be a problem when #88 makes his return.
     Because of Dennis Pitta's physical talent and ability to find weaknesses in opposing defenses, other teams have to account for him on every play.  Pitta's presence in the middle of the field prompts opposing teams to drop linebackers back into pass coverage as safeties are typically physically outmatched by the big tight end.  That presence in the middle means less defenders to blitz Flacco and to stop Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce.  Flacco has been statistically the most frequently and heavily blitzed quarterback in the NFL this season, and that's in large part due to the absence of a serious tight end receiving threat.  A healthy Dennis Pitta adds an entirely new dimension to the Ravens offense, and thus, should allow other receivers and running backs to be more successful as well.
     The biggest questions that remain are how healthy Dennis Pitta is and how quickly he can return to actual playing shape.  It's a contract year for Dennis, so there's little doubt that he's going to make all efforts to take the field and demonstrate what he can do for the Ravens and any potential future teams if Baltimore let's Dennis test the free agent market before offering him a serious deal.  The question that no one can definitively answer ahead of time is whether or not the Ravens will win enough games prior to Pitta's return to make his participation useful for the team as far as the playoff hunt is concerned.  If the Ravens lose this week, they're almost certainly out of the playoff race.  If they lose to the Steelers four days later, they're also likely out of the playoff race.  The Ravens have a great opportunity to put together a 3 game home winning streak against 3 teams without winning records.  If they can accomplish that, then Dennis Pitta's return should mean the Ravens can be competitive on the road against the Lions, at home against the Patriots, and on the road once more against the Bengals.
     The odds of the Ravens putting together a three game winning streak before Pitta comes back are low.  The Ravens have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and their next two matchups are against opponents that are entirely capable of beating them.  With all of that said, the Ravens have been extremely competitive in every loss they've had with the exception of their first, and it wouldn't take much to change their losses into wins.  Every single game of the next three games is basically the Ravens last stand.  Whether or not they get into the playoffs depends on their ability to handle their own business and on how well other mediocre wildcard contenders perform during that time frame.   I've said it before, and I'll say it again: the Ravens simply have to remain in the hunt and weather the storm until the return of a healthy Dennis Pitta.  When #88 is back in action, this team can beat anyone.  Don't lose faith, Baltimore...the Ravens are still in the hunt.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

    

Sunday, November 17, 2013

WEEK 11 NFL PREDICTIONS

    This is an interesting week in NFL football as it features the two teams with the best records in the league facing off against one another.   Even more interesting is the fact that both of these teams are in the same division.  There's one more factor that makes this matchup even more interesting...neither one of these teams has beaten a single team that currently possesses a winning record.  That isn't to say that having a flawless or nearly flawless record through ten weeks in the NFL isn't impressive--because it is extremely impressive.  The Broncos-Chiefs game will, however, show just how impressive their respective records truly are. 
     The Broncos-Chiefs game may just be the most watched game of the weekend, but that doesn't mean there aren't many other interesting divisional and non-divisional matchups to which we should pay attention.  The Bengals face the Browns at home in Cincinnati, and that game could go a long way to deciding which team or teams ultimately go to the playoffs from the AFC North.  The same goes for the Eagles-Redskins game.  The Redskins are 3-6 and currently only hanging on by a statistical thread as travel to Philly to face an improved and red-hot Nick Foles who has more touchdowns than Tom Brady and has yet to throw a single pick.  The 49ers travel to the Big Easy to face a fiercely dominant Saints team in a place the Saints seldom lose.  The a flawed Ravens team faces a wounded Bears team in Chicago without Jay Cutler.
     Monday night's game may be just as exciting if not more so than any other game in Week 11.  The Patriots travel to play the Panthers, and THIS Panthers team might just be ready for them.  The Panthers possess what I believe to be the league's best defense.  What's more, the Panthers, while 5-3, have only a single blowout loss on the season.  They barely lost to the Seahawks and Bills, and they've won 6 of their last 7 games including last week's surprise win in San Francisco.  This game is such an interesting matchup because the Patriots are near the bottom of the league in run defense, and the Panthers are near the top of the league in rushing offense.  Both of the Patriots' losses came on the road against defensively stout teams, but the Patriots are also coming off of a bye week.  This one will be tough to predict.  Speaking of predictions, let's get to it!

WEEK 11 NFL PREDICTIONS

JETS AT BILLS- The Jets haven't won consecutive games all season, but they're coming off of a bye week and that should prove the deciding factor in this game.  The Bills have looked strong at times this season and often play close games against good teams, but the Jets can stop the run better than anyone, and that will cripple the Bills.  JETS 24-16.

RAVENS AT BEARS- This prediction simply doesn't mean much.  The weather will be rainy and disgusting, and that means anything can happen.  The Ravens struggled against much worse road teams this season including the Steelers and Bills, but those teams weren't missing their starting quarterback and almost all of their best defensive players.  Even if the Ravens get an early lead, their play-calling will simply become too conservative to make this a blowout win.  Again, weather will make this a sloppy game, but the Ravens should beat this team, just not by much.  RAVENS 23-21.

BROWNS AT BENGALS-  The Browns already beat the Bengals, and that was before the Bengals lost Leon Hall and Geno Atkins.  This should be a solid win that continues what I believe will be an extremely long Bengals losing streak.  BROWNS 27-17.

REDSKINS AT EAGLES-  The Eagles are simply too offensively potent right now to lose to a Redskins team that gives up huge amounts of points and passing yards.  There will be little defense in this game.  EAGLES 38-31.

LIONS AT STEELERS- This Lions team put up 31 points against the Browns in Cleveland.  It doesn't matter that the Steelers have the 4th ranked pass defense in the league because Calvin Johnson is nearly impossible to cover.  Reggie Bush should have his way with this Steelers run defense.  The Steelers should also put up points, but the Lions will hit Big Ben harder than the Steelers will hit Matthew Stafford.  LIONS 34-26.

FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS-  The Buccaneers are have finally hit their stride.  BUCS 31-28.

CARDINALS AT JAGUARS-  I dunno how, but the Jaguars figured out how to win a football game.  I don't have any great statistical reason to believe this, but I think they'll do it against against the Cardinals.  JAGUARS 21-13.

RAIDERS AT TEXANS-  The Raiders aren't a good road team this year.  The Texans are just plain bad, but their defense is still one of the best in the league and the Texans' backup quarterback has impressed me recently.  TEXANS 33-21.

CHARGERS AT DOLPHINS-  The Chargers are a poor road team this season, but the Dolphins simply can't protect their quarterback.  If the Bucs beat the Dolphins, then the Chargers will beat the Dolphins.  CHARGERS 42-20.

49ERS AT SAINTS-  The Saints are simply too strong at home to lose this one.  SAINTS 35-19.

PACKERS AT GIANTS-  The Packers aren't good enough without Aaron Rodgers and most of their receiving weapons to win on the road. The Giants are on a little roll recently and it'll continue this week when they get their 4th win and keep their playoff hopes alive--surprisingly.  GIANTS 30-17.

VIKINGS AT SEAHAWKS- Yawn.  SEAHAWKS 31-14.

CHIEFS AT BRONCOS-  The Chiefs are good, but they're not good enough to beat the Broncos in Denver.  They'll probably beat the Broncos in Kansas City, but we'll have to wait another couple of weeks to see that happen.  Manning's release is too quick to be affected enough by a strong Chiefs pass rush.  The Broncos are also quite good at stopping the run but bad at stopping the pass.  That's good for the Broncos because the Chiefs are a great running team and aren't much to speak of in the passing realm.  The teams that beat the Broncos are the ones with high-powered pass offenses.  The Chiefs are simply not one of those teams.  BRONCOS 27-23.

PATRIOTS AT PANTHERS-  The Patriots struggle to stop the run, but the Panthers simply won't be able to contend with a Patriots team with a healthy Rob Gronkowski.  The bye week will have done wonders for the Pats as their offense will score enough points to win this thriller.  PATRIOTS 34-26.

     This is the last road game for the Ravens before a 3 game long homestand that should give them an opportunity to catch up to or possibly pass a Bengals team that has struggled as of late.  I worry about the weather, but I'm optimistic that the team with the better defense will win in the rain.  The Ravens should be able to run for a collective 100+ yards even if Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce don't each have breakout days.  Even the Ravens can win this game, then their odds of making the playoffs and winning the division improve dramatically.  Stay positive, Baltimore.  Chicago is weak right now.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

Thursday, November 14, 2013

WEEK 11 RAVENS ROADTRIP: BREAKING DOWN THE BEARS AND THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION

     At first glace the Chicago Bears appear to be a formidable foe with a 5-4 record.  That record, however, is incredibly deceiving as it gives an inaccurate picture of the current state of the team.  The Bears began the season 3-0 with what appeared to be quality wins over the Bengals, Vikings, and Steelers. Sadly for Chicagoans, the win over the Bengals ended up being the Bear's only win over a quality opponent from then on as the Steelers are currently 3-6 and the Vikings are 2-7.  The Bears went on to lose 4 of their next 6 games, and their two wins during that period came against a particularly weak Giants team and the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, and Jermichael Finley.  Last week the Bears lost to the Lions for the second time this season.  It was a narrow loss to a good team, but it was also a home loss to a team with an absolutely atrocious pass defense.  To make matters worse, the Bears lost their starting quarterback, Jay Cutler, to a sprained ankle and their best cornerback, Charles Tillman for the season with a triceps injury.  Bears fans appear optimistic as Jay Cutler's backup, Josh McCown, has put up great statistics in the three games in which he's played this season.  McCown's statistics, however, are misleading, and this Bears team has a lot to worry about for their upcoming showdown with the Ravens.
     I can't criticize Josh McCown much about his performance this season.  He's been asked to play in three games for an injured Jay Cutler, and McCown has put up some impressive passing numbers.  McCown's QB rating on the season is 107, but there's a reason it's so high: the seconndaries that McCown faced in the three games in which he played this season were all rather poor.  The first game in which McCown played was against the Redskins.  Jay Cutler became injured and exited the game after throwing only 8 passes, so in came McCown who completed 14 of 20 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions.  The Bears ended up losing to the Redskins, but were still able to put up 41 points because of a big day from Matt Forte (3 touchdowns), a special teams touchdown from Devin Hester, and two field goals from Robbie Gould.  This offensive performance from the Bears is impressive, but it was against an extremely unimpressive Redskins defensive unit.  The Redskins rank nearly in the bottom of the league with the 26th ranked pass defense.  Washington has allowed opponents to score an average 31.88 points per game, and it should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Bears were able to put up 41.
     Fast forward to last week where McCown came in late in the game against the Lions for an injured Jay Cutler.  Cutler had an ankle injury that got worse as the game went on, and McCown took the field and led a successful touchdown drive while completing 6 of 9 passes.  On paper, McCown appears great as his quarterback and passer ratings are both impressive, but they're only impressive in his games in which he has played a limited number of snaps and only against poorly ranked pass defenses.  The Lions are even worse than the Redskins with the 27th ranked pass defense in the league.  Detroit's saving grace is their high-flying offense that allows them to score quickly and beat teams despite poor play in their secondary. 
      Now you'll have to bare with me for a moment as I've purposely gone out of order.  McCown's only full game this season was his second game in which he faced a Packers team absolutely decimated with injuries.  The Packers weren't only missing three of their best receivers, but they also missed their best pass rusher, Clay Matthews, and their most integral offensive cog, Aaron Rodgers.  Surprise, surprise!  The Packers rank 21st in the league in pass defense.  It is also interesting, however, that McCown' completion percentage and passer rating went down dramatically when he actually had to play for a full game.  No longer was this backup simply coming in with fresh legs after the guy in front of him took the brunt of the beating.  Suddenly McCown completed 53% of his passes in a full game as compared to 69% of his passes in games where he only came in for a limited number of snaps.  I was also not impressed with McCown's inability to score more against this Packers team without almost literally all of its star players.  The Bears only barely edged the Packers 27-20, and I firmly believe a healthy Jay Cutler would have won that game by a far greater margin.
     Did you notice something about the score of that Packers game?  The Bears allowed Green Bay to score 20 points without Aaron Rodgers.  The Ravens allowed the Packers to score 19 points WITH Aaron Rodgers playing the entire game.  That brings us to an important point.  The Bears won't only be slowed by the absence of Jay Cutler; they'll also be be hurt by their own horrendous defense.  Eddie Lacy is a great young running back, but he was able to run for 6.8 yards per carry against the Bears, and that was without much threat of passing because of Aaron Rodgers absence.  How did this happen?  That's simple: the Bears possess the 31st ranked run defense in the league. Even when Chicago knew that Green Bay was going to run the ball, they simply couldn't stop them from doing so. Chicago has allowed an average of 129 yards per game on the ground this season, and this may mean a comparatively big day for Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. 
     The Bears struggle to stop the run, so they may over-commit defenders to the box in order to prevent the Ravens running backs from getting into the open field.  Now the Ravens have looked awful all year on the ground, but that is in large part because teams have brought up many defenders in run coverage.  The formula against the Ravens has been simple: stack the box and stop the Ravens running backs for short gains on first and second down and then blitz Joe Flacco heavily on third down knowing that he has to throw the ball and no longer has his two most valuable possession receivers from last season.  The Ravens, however, are in luck as this week they know they'll be going against a team with an already poorly ranked pass defense (23rd) that will be without its best cornerback in Charles Tillman.  Gone are the days from last season where the Bears created many turnovers and finished the season in the top 5 in least points allowed.  These Bears have had more interceptions than the Ravens, but that hasn't stopped them from allowing opposing teams to put up big scores recently.  In their last 6 games, the Bears have allowed over 28 points per game, and they've allowed 27.4 points per game on the season.  The Bears' identity this season has, instead, been offense.  Jay Cutler has been responsible for a large part of their offense as he has averaged 268 yards per game in the 7 games in which he either played the entire game or saw significant snaps. 
     Without their best quarterback and with a porous defense, the Bears are going to have difficulties this weekend against the Ravens.  The Ravens have struggled offensively, but they've gone up against much better defenses in many of their games than what the Bears possess.  The Ravens have faced the Browns twice, the Texans, and the Bengals (all top ten ranked defenses).  That isn't to say that the Bears still can't win this game.  They have at least a capable backup quarterback in McCown and a pair of extremely talented, tall, physical wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey.  The Bears will also utilize the rushing talents of Matt Forte.  The question for this weekend will be whether the Ravens offense will be good enough on the road to score 3-4 touchdowns and maybe a field goal or two on the Bears, or whether the Bears will be good enough without Jay Cutler to outscore the Ravens.  I don't want to rush to call this game in favor of the Ravens just yet as I have to see Friday's injury report to accurately predict this one, but I will say that the Ravens certainly have a lot of factors working in their favor.
    
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION

COLTS AT TITANS-  This is a matchup of two teams that lost enormous upset games in embarrassing fashion last week.  The Titans, however, lost more than the game, they lost their starting quarterback for the season.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is a serviceable backup, but Andrew Luck hasn't lost consecutive games yet this season, and he almost certainly isn't about to do so now.  The Colts are 3-1 on the road  and their only road loss came, in large part, because of an astounding number of dropped passes from a typically sure-handed Colts receiving corps.  The Titans simply don't have the offensive firepower to win this game.  Luck will bounce back with a big win this evening.  COLTS 31-17.

     I feel as though it's simply bad luck for me to be overly optimistic about the Ravens.  Both of the times this season that I've picked the Ravens to lose have been games where they've totally shocked us and won.  I wasn't incredibly surprised when they won last week, but I did pick them to lose.  That in no way means I'll be picking the Ravens to lose each week in hopes of being pleasantly surprised, but I'm going to attempt to be more objective in my analysis than at the beginning of the season and pay careful attention to Friday's injury report.  I keep repeating that the Ravens simply have to weather the storm until Dennis Pitta gets back, and I'm sticking to that statement.  If Pitta can be even just 80-90% of what he was last season then the Ravens should see a dramatic increase in offensive production.  Do not underestimate the effect of a 6'5" receiver with great hands who has a knack for converting 3rd downs and keeping drives alive.  Oh, and the Ravens defense is back in full swing with Lardarius Webb finally returning to form in time for a playoff push!  Keep the faith Baltimore, a postseason berth isn't far off or far-fetched.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! 

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

RAVENS REVIVED: SHOULD A WIN OVER THE BENGALS GIVE FANS HOPE GOING FORWARD?

     There's nothing wrong with a Ravens win.  The Ravens did something against the Bengals last Sunday that they haven't done since Week 1 of this season: score first.  Jim Caldwell called creative plays in the first half of the game in order to find ways to get the Ravens offense down the field quickly including an early flea-flicker that drew a pass interference penalty inside the red zone and set up a touchdown pass to Dallas Clark.  The Ravens were impressive on defense with a pass rush that terrorized Andy Dalton all game, a stout run defense, and a secondary that made A.J. Green look almost like a non-factor.  Even after an impossibly frustrating error that gave the Bengals a last second touchdown to tie the game, the Ravens defense held the Bengals scoreless in overtime and the Ravens offense drove down the field with well-timed clutch passes from Joe Flacco to a pair of players that haven't made many clutch plays this season.  I must applaud the Ravens for their unflinching determination to do whatever it took to beat a division-leading rival with the fate of their season on the line.  They never gave up, and ultimately, they won the Ravens way.  This win, however, demonstrated that major glaring weaknesses still exist on the Ravens offense.  With the schemes, coaching, and personnel currently active on this squad, the Ravens probably have little shot of getting to the playoffs, let alone winning playoff games.  Fortunately for the Ravens, one major addition in the personnel department is on its way, and that along with a few other major factors should give fans reason for hope.
     The Ravens reported roughly one month ago that Dennis Pitta would likely return to the field in mid to late November.  Well, it's November 11th, and the next Ravens game will be played on November 17th.  The Ravens then play at home against the Jets on the 24th, and then they face the Steelers at home on Thanksgiving night (the 28th).  Pitta most certainly won't be back for next weekend's game, but it would not surprise me to see him active and on the field against the Jets or more likely against the Steelers.  What would Dennis Pitta's return mean for the Ravens?  First, it would mean the addition of a sure-handed possession receiver in whom Joe Flacco has the utmost trust.  Pitta and Flacco are great friends, and their bond carries over to the field.  The Ravens don't currently have a go-to possession receiver the way they had for the first 5 years of Flacco's career.  Flacco always had Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, and more recently, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta.  The Ravens currently posses big play speed and young talent in their receiving corps along with an aging veteran tight end with a recent knack for catching touchdowns.  That same veteran, however, has an unfortunate habit of dropping at least one great pass per game.  Pitta, on the other hand, rarely ever drops passes, is in the prime age of his career, and has proven tough enough to get outstanding yards after the catch.  Pitta also has a habit of finding soft spots in opposing defenses, and I can't underscore the importance of that skill enough.
     The question remains: how exactly will Pitta's return affect the Ravens offense?  The effect of Pitta largely depends on just how healthy he actually is when he takes the field, but I'd like to assume that he is doing fairly well considering that his injury included no damage to connective tissue and was purely muscular.  Pitta is also not known as an incredibly speedy receiver, but an instinctive, big-bodied receiver with a high football I.Q.  With that said, for the sake of speculation, we'll operate under the assumption that Pitta returns to the field at 80-90% of his peak ability.  Pitta's presence will likely have a positive effect on the Ravens running game.  I'm not talking about explosive improvements, but it's possible his presence could push the Ravens closer to 4 yards per carry going forward.  Having Pitta on the field provides a receiver to keep the chains moving, but it also forces teams to drop more linebackers into coverage, and thus, out of run support.  The lack of consistent tight end play is a big reason that teams have been able to commit a large number of defenders to stopping Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce this season.  The Ravens blocking schemes have, of course, been horrendous under the guidance and design of Juan Castillo, but I'm confident that both previously premier running backs will find more and bigger holes through which to run with Pitta running intermediate routes.
     Improvements to the Ravens offense aren't the only things that should give the Baltimore fans hope for a possible playoff berth.  The Ravens also face a favorable schedule for the remainder of the regular season with three out of their next four games at home.  Part of what makes the remainder of this schedule favorable is the current condition of the upcoming Ravens opponents.  The Bears, for example, will be without Jay Cutler against the Ravens.  Bears fans seem to think their backup quarterback, McCown, will be just as effective if not more so, but there's no question that Jay Cutler has far more experience and impressive wins under his belt than anyone in line behind him.  The Bears will also be missing their best cornerback in Charles Tillman.  This means an already weak Bears pass defense will be particularly shorthanded when facing the likes of Torrey Smith.  The Bears one-mighty defensive front seven is currently hampered by the loss of Lance Briggs and nagging injuries to Julius Peppers.  If the Bears are going to win the game, they'll have to do so with a huge offensive performance against a revamped Ravens defense that just got done battering Andy Dalton and mostly shutting down A.J. Green.
     The Ravens still have some difficult upcoming opponents such as the Jets, Patriots, Steelers, Lions, and Bengals once again in Cincinnati.  Fortunately for the Ravens, the Jets, Steelers, and Patriots will all face the Joe Flacco and company in Baltimore, and that gives them a far better chance to win any or all three of those games.  Thankfully, the Ravens may not have to win all of those games to get into the playoffs.  The Ravens are, believe it or not, still in the hunt for the AFC North crown.  The Bengals currently have a game and a half lead on both the Ravens and Browns, but the Bengals have lost two games in a row in similar fashion and aren't nearly as defensively dominant without Leon Hall and Geno Atkins.  The Bengals had found ways to win in close games earlier in the season, but season ending injuries to their aforementioned defensive stars have tilted close games in favor of the Bengals' opponents.  The road doesn't get much easier for the Bengals from here on out either.  The Bengals face a Browns team that thumped them earlier in the season 17-6...and that was when the Bengals still had Hall and Atkins.  The Bengals appear to currently have little in the way of a pass rush as they only occasionally got pressure on both Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill, and both of those quarterbacks are protected by less-than-stellar offensive lines.  The Bengals will have even more trouble getting after a more mobile Jason Campbell protected by a comparatively stronger and more well rested Browns offensive line that will be coming off of a bye week.  The Bengals then have to play the Chargers in San Diego and then the Colts and the Steelers.  There's a strong chance that the Bengals could lose 2,3, or even all four of their games in the next month and find themselves with a 6-8 record only days before Christmas.
     The Bengals might be getting weaker, but the Steelers and Browns appear to be getting stronger.  Fortunately for the Ravens, the Browns and Steelers both appear to have tougher schedules ahead of them.  The Browns have some serious road tests ahead as they have to travel to Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, New England, and New York to face the Jets.  They also have a home games against the Steelers, Bears, and Jaguars, but the Browns are 1-3 on the road this season, and 4 of their remaining 7 games are away.  As strong as the Browns looked at home against the Ravens, I simply can't see them winning anymore than 4 of the remaining games on their schedule to finish the season 8-8 and likely out of the playoff race.
     The Steelers are coming off of a sound defeat of the Bills, but they've already dug themselves into a serious hole.  The Steelers already have 6 losses and must face an explosive Lions offense at home next week. They then must face the Browns and Ravens on the road all in 4 day period.  The Steelers then have to play the Dolphins and Bengals in Pittsburgh and those are two games I believe they'll win.  Black and yellow then must travel to Green Bay where they'll face a Packers team that will, by that time, once again have Aaron Rodgers leading the charge.  The Steelers finish up the season at home against the Browns, but because of their current 6 losses, the Steelers must win ALL of their remaining games to go 10-6 to likely secure the division title, or they must win all but one game to go 9-7.  The Steelers have only won a single road game this season to the mindbogglingly inconsistent Jets after coming off of a bye week.  I can't imagine the Steelers playing 4 divisional rival games (two on the road) and going into Green Bay and only losing one or two games in the final 7 of the season.
     Simply by virtue of a waning Bengals team and tough upcoming schedules for the Steelers and Browns, I believe it will only take 9 or 10 victories to secure the AFC North title this season.  The Ravens don't currently appears stronger than the Browns or Steelers as they still lack the ability to consistently run the ball and sustain offensive drives.  The Ravens, however, have the advantage of the return of their best tight end in time for the final playoff push, and that should be enough to keep them ahead of the rest of their division.  I realize, of course, that this sounds extremely optimistic, and it all totally hinges on Dennis Pitta's return to effective form in a timely fashion, but that's what this entire article is about--reasons for Ravens fans to hope.  Keep faith alive, Baltimore, this is the time of the year when the Ravens show the rest of the league what it means to play Ravens football.  The Ravens have just as good a shot (if not better) than any of the other teams in their division to win the AFC North title in 2013.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

Friday, November 8, 2013

WEEK 10 NFL PREDICTIONS

     Last night's game went pretty much as I predicted which didn't make Redskins fans happy.  At this point both Maryland area football teams each only have 3 wins.  Neither is likely going to make the playoffs as both are too far behind their division leaders with only half the season left.  In the case of the Redskins, it wouldn't be inconceivable for them to catch up to the Cowboys except for one major limiting factor: the Redskins have an impossibly tough schedule ahead of them.  The Ravens, on the other hand, have a more reasonable schedule, but simply appear too offensively anemic and inconsistent to put enough points up on any given week to win.  The Redskins at least have the potential to score enough points to stay competitive and win games, but lack an effective enough defense to limit the daunting list of upcoming opponents' offenses.  Whatever the reason, these two teams are bad this season after both having been dominant last season.  Fans will hopefully hold out faith and keep their unflinching loyalty as they have for years, but I see little reason for objective optimism at this point.
     The Ravens and Redskins may not give us much reason to cheer, but true football fans will enjoy the rest of this season regardless.  Part of the reason that this season should prove enjoyable for football fans is the lack of truly dominant teams.  Some may point to the Broncos, but they've demonstrated clear weaknesses from a defensive standpoint and Peyton Manning is beginning to be heavily affected by injuries.  Others may point to the Seahawks or Chiefs, but both of those teams have been nearly defeated by rather unimpressive franchises recently.  I would have brought up the Saints, but the Jets absolutely took them to task last week.  The 49ers, on the other hand, struggled early but have gotten back to a rather impressive form as of late.  San Fran will also being getting back help in their receiving corps with the return of Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham.  The return of these two wideouts will likely take this offense to a totally new level and allow for the likes of Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis to see more success as well.
     Another team that appeared to struggle a bit earlier in the season but that appears to have gotten back on track is the Patriots.  The return of a healthy Rob Gronkowski does so much for the Patriots offense that is comes as no surprise that the Patriots put up 55 point on the Steelers defense in a week that Gronk finally looked back in form.  The Patriots lost a couple of key defenders in Jerrod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, and they may be without Aqib Talib for a little while longer.  The increased power of the Patriots offense, however, should more than make up for such defensive absences, and upon the return of Talib the Patriots defense should get a huge boost that could take them all the way through the playoffs to the Super Bowl. 
     I don't like to make early Super Bowl predictions because the NFL is too unpredictable as far as injuries are concerned. If I had to pick, however, I would say that the Patriots and 49ers will be the two most dominant teams down the stretch because they performed well and weathered the storm without major key players, and those key players will all be returning to bolster their respective teams in the second half of the season in time for a strong post-season push.
     Week 10 features a great many games that will be extremely tough to predict because of just how evenly matched each game appears to be.  Divisional matchups are always tough to predict, but there isn't a tremendous number of them this week.  This week as I look over the NFL schedule I simply don't see more than one or two games where the likely winner is apparent just by looking at the names of the two teams involved.  This is a job for more in-depth analysis!  Let's take a look.


WEEK 10 NFL PREDICTIONS

SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS-  At first glance this game appears as though it should be an easy win for the Seahawks, but they haven't looked dominant since playing the Jaguars in week 3.  The Seahawks still have a great record at 8-1, but they haven't beaten a single team that currently possesses a winning record since Week 2 against the 49ers.  The only winning team the Seahawks have even played in the last 6 weeks is the Colts and they lost to Andrew Luck and company in Indianapolis.  Hell, the winless Buccaneers took the Seahawks into OVERTIME last week.  The Falcons are also 2-2 at home with their 2 home losses only by a combined 9 points to the Jets and Patriots.  Nevertheless, the Falcons are still too banged up to win this game.  Roddy White will play, but he won't be at 100% as he's dealing with a hamstring injury, and Julio Jones is now out for the season.  This should be yet another squeaker for the Seahawks against a bottom-of-the-barrel team.  SEAHAWKS 30-28.

LIONS AT BEARS-  This should be the most exciting matchup of the week as it features two 5-3 divisional rivals in their second meeting of the season.  The last meeting ended in a 40-32 win for the Lions in Detroit.  The Lions are also coming off of a bye week and should be healthier than the Bears.  This should be a typical NFC North slugfest, but I simply can't see the Bears defense stopping the high-flying Lions offense.  The Lions defense isn't spectacular outside of Detroit, but they already showed that they can play just well enough to outlast the likes of the Cowboys in Dallas.  I'm confident the Lions will do the same this week in Chicago. LIONS 38-31.

EAGLES AT PACKERS-  No Aaron Rodgers?  That'll be a big problem.  Eddie Lacy is a great young running back, but the Packers will be far too one-dimensional without Rodgers.  The Eagles aren't great, but they're certainly capable of beating the Packers without their most important players.  EAGLES 31-20.

JAGUARS AT TITANS- This is the one prediction that just jumped off the page as easy to predict.  TITANS 33-13.

RAMS AT COLTS- The Rams simply aren't strong enough on the road to beat the Colts.  This is the OTHER prediction that jumped off the page as an easy prediction.  COLTS 35-17.

RAIDERS AT GIANTS- The Raiders aren't consistent enough to win this one on the road.  If this were in Oakland it would be a totally different story.  The Giant are coming off a bye week and should have a balanced enough offensive attack to put this one away by early in the 4th quarter.  GIANTS 24-14.

 BILLS AT STEELERS- The Bills should win this game, but I have a feeling the Steelers organization will be in utter chaos if they can't win at home this week against a mediocre team.  E.J. Manuel should be starting for the Bills and that will make this tough, but I think the Steelers are offensively strong enough to win this game.  The Steelers put up 30 points on the Patriots.  If they can put up that same number at home this week then they'll win.  STEELERS 31-27.

BENGALS AT RAVENS-  The Ravens have been slightly better at home this season than on the road, but they will not be able to stop A.J. Green for the first time in since he came into the league.  The Bengals have too many passing weapons and the Ravens simply can't win without a balanced offensive attack that includes a serious running game.  The Bengals will be without Leon hall and Geno Atkins, but they're still too strong for a Ravens team crippled by mistakes and poor coaching.  Nevertheless, this should be another close, disappointing loss for the Ravens.  I hope to the football gods that I'm wrong.  BENGALS 24-20.

PANTHERS AT 49ERS-  If this game wasn't in San Francisco I might predict a Panthers win, but the 49ers are hitting their stride right now.  The Panthers defense is still strong enough to make this a grinder, but I a big game from Frank Gore and a strong performance from Kaepernick to make this a narrow win.  49ERS 17-13.

TEXANS AT CARDINALS-  The Texans lost a disappointing game to the Colts last week, but the Cardinals are not nearly as good as the Colts.  The Texans made the right move in benching Ed Reed and they'll find more success without his broken, aging body as the last line of defense.  TEXANS 26-17.

BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are strong at home and they should give the Broncos a tough time, but the Broncos offense is high powered enough to simply outscore the Chargers.  BRONCOS 38-35.

COWBOYS AT SAINTS-  Apparently Dez Bryant's back injury issues are beginning to reappear.  The Saints are extremely strong at home and Bryant being less than 100% will even further tilt this one in favor of Drew Brees and company.  SAINTS 35-27.

DOLPHINS AT BUCCANEERS-  The Dolphins should ordinary win this one, but recent controversial events have decimated their offensive line, and I fear that they might just end up being the first casualty against the Buccaneers this season.  The Bucs almost beat the Seahawks last week, so it's possible they're getting back on track.  BUCCANEERS 21-17.

     This should be another disappointing week for Ravens fans if things go the way I predict (Steelers win and Ravens lose) but let's hope I'm totally wrong in both cases and the exact opposite happens.  After all, the Ravens have been a couple of mistakes or big plays away from beating each of the last 4 teams to which they've lost.  I know they've been consistently disappointing, but it really wouldn't take much to turn their losing ways into winning ways.  The problem is that the Ravens coaching staff doesn't seem to realize just what they need to do to correct these mistakes.  If anyone in the organization DOES realize what they need to do, they're simply not doing it.  Even so, remember that if it weren't for a muffed punt last week, the Ravens simply would have beaten the Browns.  I love what we're seeing from Marlon Brown and the rest of the Ravens young receivers.  If Pitta comes back in the last two weeks then that might just be the factor that pushes them over the winning edge.  If the Ravens can't win before he gets back, however, it simply won't matter.  Here's to hoping I'm wrong.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! 

 
 

 

 
 

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

WEEK 9 RAVENS RECAP AND THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION

     Week 9 was a horrible week for Purple Nightmare predictions.  Not only did I overestimate the Ravens coaching staff's ability to make obvious corrections, but I also incorrectly predicted 8 of the total 13 games.  A member of the Browns said last week that these are not the "Ravens of old" and he was totally correct.  It's not that these Ravens can't play defense, because they absolutely can.  The Ravens currently rank 8th in run defense and 14th in pass defense.  It's also not because Joe Flacco can't put up enough yards in the passing game, because Joe is on pace to FAR exceed his best regular season total.  It's because this Ravens offensive line can't run-block.  There have been years where the Ravens have struggled in one capacity or another, but they've simply never struggled this hard at this particular task. 
     Is the reason that the Ravens struggle because they simply don't have good enough lineman?  No, of course not.  The reason is because the Ravens simply refuse to abandon Juan Castillo's blocking schemes and running plays.  I found out recently that Jim Caldwell is no longer the sole play caller of this team.  John Harbaugh explained to a member of the press that play calling is a collaborative effort between Castillo, Caldwell and himself....and it's simply not working.  Harbaugh can come out after every game and talk about how the defense has to put up a stop and get off the field late in games to give the offense a chance to win, but the offense has had ALL GAME to win and hasn't done so because of poor coaching.  The players even complained about the blocking schemes after the loss to Green Bay, and the Ravens coaching staff responded by switching at times away from a zone blocking scheme to a man blocking scheme with a reasonable amount of success.
     The Ravens, however, lost to the Steelers going into the bye week and I believe that gave Harbaugh the impression that switching away from Castillo's blocking schemes wasn't the answer to winning football games.  I firmly believe that Juan Castillo came to Harbaugh and insisted that if he was given the bye week to correct mistakes in the way the players were executing his system then the Ravens would find success on the ground and beat the Browns in Week 9.  No such luck.  The Ravens running backs actually performed WORSE after the bye week as there are clear fundamental flaws in Castillo's run offense.  This first flaw is that Castillo likes to run the ball up the middle of the offensive line.  Unfortunately for the Ravens, their weakest lineman, Gino Gradkowski, is the center and this means Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce find little success running in the 1 or the 2 hole on either side of Gradkowski.  The other major flaw we witnessed on Sunday was the Ravens attempting to run the ball when Flacco was in the shotgun.  This meant that Flacco handed the ball of to Ray deep in the backfield.  Castillo may have thought this would give Ray more space to make defenders miss, but his blocking scheme allowed defenders to get into the backfield so quickly that Ray often was tackled before he could even approach the line of scrimmage. 
     Contrary to some speculation, the Ravens rushing struggles have little do with the health of their running backs.  I entertained that idea briefly, but even Ray Rice at 75-80% should normally gain far more yards than 259 through 8 games.  Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce haven't both magically become bad at the same time, they simply have nowhere to run because of poor scheming.  I have waited months for the Ravens to totally abandon Juan Castillo's run-coordination, and it happened briefly in Pittsburgh, but that didn't last long.  I now see Harbaugh for what he truly is: a coach that inherited an extremely talented team just a it drafted its franchise quarterback. 
     Harbaugh doesn't know enough about offense or defense to step in when the likes of Juan Castillo, Cam Cameron, or Greg Mattison have put the Ravens players in poor schemes and positions to win football games.  When people speak about Bill Belichick, they always regard him as one of the best if not the best coach in the NFL.  Why?  Because assistant coaches and coordinators come and they go, but the Patriots stay consistently strong under Belichick's guidance.  Even when Brady was out for most of the season in 2008 the Patriots went 11-5 with Matt Cassel as their starting quarterback.  Harbaugh simply isn't nearly involved, skilled, or in control of his own team to have that kind of consistent success despite major personnel losses and coaching turnover.  Sure, the Ravens were great for the first five years of Harbaugh's head coaching career, but did he really have much to do with that success?  I'm starting to realize that the answer is no. 
     I'll never stop being a Ravens fan, but I've lost faith in John Harbaugh's ability to coach his team and make tough decisions at the correct times to fix flaws that lead to losses.  I gave Harbaugh credit for ousting Cam Cameron after the Ravens lost 3 straight games last season.  That decision proved to be the one that ultimately led to the Ravens winning a Super Bowl, but the more I think about it, the more apparent it becomes that Harbaugh took entirely too long to replace Cameron, and the Ravens could have taken the next step towards winning a Super Bowl much earlier if Harbaugh had sooner made that move.
     If John Harbaugh truly wants to take command of his team and stop the metaphorical bleeding, he will make the executive decision that his team's offense will revert to last year's blocking schemes.  The ravens need to be able to have at least a moderate amount of success running the football to set up 2nd and manageable and 3rd and short situations for Joe Flacco and company.  The Ravens need to be able to establish the run to consistently score in the redzone, and Joe Flacco needs Ray Rice to run well in order to set up deep play action passes to the speedy Ravens wideouts.  I've totally given up hope that any of this will happen, and my hopes will not be renewed unless the Ravens find a way to put up a decisive win this week at home against a Bengals team that will be playing without three integral defensive cogs.  I will not be predicting a Ravens win, but I'll be glued to my T.V. in case they decide to surprise us all.  There's still a possibility the Ravens could turn things around, but I'm not holding my breath.  This is all just too depressing to continue to discuss, so let's move on to the the Thursday night game.

THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION

REDSKINS AT VIKINGS- It's difficult to know which Vikings team the Redskins will face this Thursday night.  The Vikings have at times appeared to be the second worst team in football right behind the Jaguars.  The return of Christian Ponder, however, appeared to have flipped a switch that transformed the Vikings into a tougher team to beat last week against the Cowboys.  Sure the Vikings ultimately lost the game, but they did so just barely and on the road against a formidable Cowboys offense.  The Redskins had a good home victory against the Chargers, but the Chargers have been absolutely horrendous on the road this season.  This game will be close, but the Vikings defense will show up at home, and Adrian Peterson should give the Redskins enough trouble to tip this one in favor of the the Vikings.  VIKINGS 28-24.

     There is little I can say to my fellow Ravens fans at this point to give them much realistic hope for the remainder of the season.  The Ravens last 4 losses have been close ones, so it wouldn't take much to change any one of those losses into wins, but the fact that they lose close games so consistently only further points to a lack of coaching to correct these minor mistakes that lead to major disappointment.  In the NFL, a loss is a loss no matter the score.  Don't give up your fanhood, Baltimore, but let's just be happy the Ravens won the Super Bowl last year and be hopeful that they can get back on track in 2014.

AS ALWAYS (BUT NOW WITH LESS OPTIMISM)
GO RAVENS!!!  


Friday, November 1, 2013

WEEK 9 NFL PREDICTIONS

     What a Halloween treat it was to watch the Bengals lose to the Dolphins in a dramatic overtime finish.  There are few times when I'm happy to be wrong about my predictions, but that was definitely one of them.  Not only did the Bengals lose their third game but they lost yet another star defender when Geno Atkins went down with a torn ACL.  I'm not saying that I celebrate an injury, but the Ravens chances of beating the Bengals in two weeks improve significantly without the ferocious pass rush of Atkins.  The Bengals, in fact, will be without Atkins, shutdown corner Leon Hall, and possibly Rey Maualuga.  The Bengals will still possess a potent offense, but suddenly they don't appear to be nearly as complete of a team. 
     The first game of Week 9 was quite a thriller, but it certainly won't be the only one.  Some teams with fantastic records will be seriously tested by teams with poor records, and we will also see some interesting matchups between divisional rivals.  Without further ado, let's take a look at this week's picks!

WEEK 9 NFL PREDICTIONS

CHIEFS AT BILLS- This could be a total trap game for an undefeated Chiefs team that only narrowly defeated the Browns and Texans in the last two weeks.  The Bills lack a serious pass offense, they lack a serious pass offense or defense, but they rank 7th in rush offense.  The Chiefs also lack a serious passing game, but they have an elite defense and also the 11th ranked rush offense.  On paper, the Chiefs should win this game, but the Chiefs have only narrowly beat poor teams recently and the Bills have a habit of staying in games against good teams this year.  It's only been a couple of weeks since the Bengals narrowly beat the Bengals in overtime 27-24.  There is little statistical evidence I have to back up this prediction, but if the Bills can take the Bengals into overtime at home, I believe they'll beat a Chiefs team that hasn't impressed me for the last two weeks.  This will be a close one.  BILLS 23-20.

VIKINGS AT COWBOYS- Why waste time explaining this one? COWBOYS 42-17.

TITANS AT RAMS- The Titans aren't a bad football team.  They have a losing record, but mostly because their last 3 games have come against elite teams.  The Titan will be coming off of a bye and the Rams will be starting Kellen Clemons again.  The Rams rushing attack looked potent against the Seahawks for most of the game, but their inability to gain yardage on 3rd or 4th and short situations is troubling.  Zac Stacy looked explosive, but he almost certainly won't be 100%, and the Rams haven't had a single rushing touchdown this season.  The Titans coming off of a bye will win this one with slightly better passing and comparable defense.  TITANS 24-17.

 SAINTS AT JETS- The Jets will put up a fight in the first half, but I don't see any way they match the firepower of the Saints offense.  Jimmy Graham should be good to go and he just might be the second best offensive weapon in the league behind Megatron.  The Saints should pick off Geno Smith 2 or more times.  SAINTS 27-19.

CHARGERS AT REDSKINS- The Chargers have only beaten horrendous teams on the road thus far with wins over the Jaguars and Eagles.  They, however, have lost to both of the mediocre teams they've played on the road.  I would like to say that the Redskins should win this game, but thus far the Redskins have only won two games and both of those wins have come against teams playing without their starting quarterback.  The Chargers should be able to light up the Redskins secondary and play defense just well enough to edge the Skins in D.C. this weekend.  High powered pass offenses simply thrive against the Skins and I don't see that changing anytime soon.  CHARGERS 31-21.

FALCONS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers are a good team and the Falcons are not.  The Falcons can't stop the run and the Panthers can DEFINITELY run the ball.  The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 games against crappy teams, this should make 5 of 6.  PANTHERS 33-14.

EAGLES AT RAIDERS-  The Raiders have only lost one home game this season and that was when Terrell Pryor was out.  The Eagles have little offense to speak of and even less defense.  Michael Vick is injured, and this should be the year that the Eagles finally realize that they need to cut ties to a quarterback that has never stayed healthy for them.  RAIDERS 26-10.

BUCCANEERS AT SEAHAWKS- Well the NFL certainly made this won easy for me.  Thanks, guys.  SEAHAWKS 38-13.

RAVENS AT BROWNS- Jason Campbell didn't look bad against the Chiefs last week.  With that said, the Ravens are going to be stronger after their bye week and didn't allow the Browns to score a single touchdown in their last meeting.  The Browns no longer have a running back that should have much success against the Ravens defense, and the Ravens should sack Campbell at least 3-4 times.  I have read that the Ravens have taken away Juan Castillo's power in the organization, and that paired with the return to health of Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce should mean a decent offensive day for the Ravens.  I don't think this will be a blowout, but the Ravens should make this a relatively comfortable win.  I feat the birds will once against start relatively slow, but the second half should be big.  RAVENS 24-13.

STEELERS AT PATRIOTS- The Steelers have looked impressive at times in the past 3 weeks.  They, however, won't be able to beat the Steelers in Foxborough.  It's not because the Patriots are unbeatable, it's because they're too strong at home and the Steelers aren't strong enough on the road.  The Steelers should be tough for the Patriots defensively speaking as they have the 2nd ranked pass defense in the league.  That doesn't mean the Patriots won't score, because they will.  If the Steelers were healthy I might even give them a shot to win this.  The Steelers are not healthy.  David DeCastro will be out with an ankle injury, and that will be enough to stifle the Steelers offense.  This game could still be close though, but if the Saints can't win in New England, the Steelers most certainly will not.  PATRIOTS 27-23.

COLTS AT TEXANS-  This could be a trap game for the Colts.  They'll be without Reggie Wayne for the first time in a long time, and they'll be playing on the road.  The Texans still have a solid defense and can still run the ball.  The Texans have the highest rated pass defense in the NFL by yardage allowed, and that could stifle a quarterback who acts as the lynchpin of his team's offense.  The Colts will be without one of their starting cornerbacks to matters worse.  The Colts struggle to stop the run, and Arian Foster should give them fits.  I wouldn't ordinarily pick the Texans, but with both of these team coming off of bye weeks, I have to give this one to the home team that can run the ball.  TEXANS 21-17.

BEARS AT PACKERS-  This isn't the usual hard-nosed rivalry we've come to know between these two teams.  The Bears are bad and the Packers are pretty good.  The Bears will not and cannot beat the Packers at home.  PACKERS 31-17.

     Well, this is it, Ravens fans.  It's do or die.  If the Ravens can't beat the Browns in Cleveland with Jason Campbell at the helm, then there's simply not reason to believe that they can win enough games in the regular season to secure a playoff spot, let alone win a playoff game.  I have faith that the Ravens can beat a team they haven't lost to since Kyle Boller was quarterback and Brian Billick was head coach.  There's really not much else to say; it's simply do or die.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!