At first glace the Chicago Bears appear to be a formidable foe with a 5-4 record. That record, however, is incredibly deceiving as it gives an inaccurate picture of the current state of the team. The Bears began the season 3-0 with what appeared to be quality wins over the Bengals, Vikings, and Steelers. Sadly for Chicagoans, the win over the Bengals ended up being the Bear's only win over a quality opponent from then on as the Steelers are currently 3-6 and the Vikings are 2-7. The Bears went on to lose 4 of their next 6 games, and their two wins during that period came against a particularly weak Giants team and the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, and Jermichael Finley. Last week the Bears lost to the Lions for the second time this season. It was a narrow loss to a good team, but it was also a home loss to a team with an absolutely atrocious pass defense. To make matters worse, the Bears lost their starting quarterback, Jay Cutler, to a sprained ankle and their best cornerback, Charles Tillman for the season with a triceps injury. Bears fans appear optimistic as Jay Cutler's backup, Josh McCown, has put up great statistics in the three games in which he's played this season. McCown's statistics, however, are misleading, and this Bears team has a lot to worry about for their upcoming showdown with the Ravens.
I can't criticize Josh McCown much about his performance this season. He's been asked to play in three games for an injured Jay Cutler, and McCown has put up some impressive passing numbers. McCown's QB rating on the season is 107, but there's a reason it's so high: the seconndaries that McCown faced in the three games in which he played this season were all rather poor. The first game in which McCown played was against the Redskins. Jay Cutler became injured and exited the game after throwing only 8 passes, so in came McCown who completed 14 of 20 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. The Bears ended up losing to the Redskins, but were still able to put up 41 points because of a big day from Matt Forte (3 touchdowns), a special teams touchdown from Devin Hester, and two field goals from Robbie Gould. This offensive performance from the Bears is impressive, but it was against an extremely unimpressive Redskins defensive unit. The Redskins rank nearly in the bottom of the league with the 26th ranked pass defense. Washington has allowed opponents to score an average 31.88 points per game, and it should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Bears were able to put up 41.
Fast forward to last week where McCown came in late in the game against the Lions for an injured Jay Cutler. Cutler had an ankle injury that got worse as the game went on, and McCown took the field and led a successful touchdown drive while completing 6 of 9 passes. On paper, McCown appears great as his quarterback and passer ratings are both impressive, but they're only impressive in his games in which he has played a limited number of snaps and only against poorly ranked pass defenses. The Lions are even worse than the Redskins with the 27th ranked pass defense in the league. Detroit's saving grace is their high-flying offense that allows them to score quickly and beat teams despite poor play in their secondary.
Now you'll have to bare with me for a moment as I've purposely gone out of order. McCown's only full game this season was his second game in which he faced a Packers team absolutely decimated with injuries. The Packers weren't only missing three of their best receivers, but they also missed their best pass rusher, Clay Matthews, and their most integral offensive cog, Aaron Rodgers. Surprise, surprise! The Packers rank 21st in the league in pass defense. It is also interesting, however, that McCown' completion percentage and passer rating went down dramatically when he actually had to play for a full game. No longer was this backup simply coming in with fresh legs after the guy in front of him took the brunt of the beating. Suddenly McCown completed 53% of his passes in a full game as compared to 69% of his passes in games where he only came in for a limited number of snaps. I was also not impressed with McCown's inability to score more against this Packers team without almost literally all of its star players. The Bears only barely edged the Packers 27-20, and I firmly believe a healthy Jay Cutler would have won that game by a far greater margin.
Did you notice something about the score of that Packers game? The Bears allowed Green Bay to score 20 points without Aaron Rodgers. The Ravens allowed the Packers to score 19 points WITH Aaron Rodgers playing the entire game. That brings us to an important point. The Bears won't only be slowed by the absence of Jay Cutler; they'll also be be hurt by their own horrendous defense. Eddie Lacy is a great young running back, but he was able to run for 6.8 yards per carry against the Bears, and that was without much threat of passing because of Aaron Rodgers absence. How did this happen? That's simple: the Bears possess the 31st ranked run defense in the league. Even when Chicago knew that Green Bay was going to run the ball, they simply couldn't stop them from doing so. Chicago has allowed an average of 129 yards per game on the ground this season, and this may mean a comparatively big day for Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce.
The Bears struggle to stop the run, so they may over-commit defenders to the box in order to prevent the Ravens running backs from getting into the open field. Now the Ravens have looked awful all year on the ground, but that is in large part because teams have brought up many defenders in run coverage. The formula against the Ravens has been simple: stack the box and stop the Ravens running backs for short gains on first and second down and then blitz Joe Flacco heavily on third down knowing that he has to throw the ball and no longer has his two most valuable possession receivers from last season. The Ravens, however, are in luck as this week they know they'll be going against a team with an already poorly ranked pass defense (23rd) that will be without its best cornerback in Charles Tillman. Gone are the days from last season where the Bears created many turnovers and finished the season in the top 5 in least points allowed. These Bears have had more interceptions than the Ravens, but that hasn't stopped them from allowing opposing teams to put up big scores recently. In their last 6 games, the Bears have allowed over 28 points per game, and they've allowed 27.4 points per game on the season. The Bears' identity this season has, instead, been offense. Jay Cutler has been responsible for a large part of their offense as he has averaged 268 yards per game in the 7 games in which he either played the entire game or saw significant snaps.
Without their best quarterback and with a porous defense, the Bears are going to have difficulties this weekend against the Ravens. The Ravens have struggled offensively, but they've gone up against much better defenses in many of their games than what the Bears possess. The Ravens have faced the Browns twice, the Texans, and the Bengals (all top ten ranked defenses). That isn't to say that the Bears still can't win this game. They have at least a capable backup quarterback in McCown and a pair of extremely talented, tall, physical wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey. The Bears will also utilize the rushing talents of Matt Forte. The question for this weekend will be whether the Ravens offense will be good enough on the road to score 3-4 touchdowns and maybe a field goal or two on the Bears, or whether the Bears will be good enough without Jay Cutler to outscore the Ravens. I don't want to rush to call this game in favor of the Ravens just yet as I have to see Friday's injury report to accurately predict this one, but I will say that the Ravens certainly have a lot of factors working in their favor.
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION
COLTS AT TITANS- This is a matchup of two teams that lost enormous upset games in embarrassing fashion last week. The Titans, however, lost more than the game, they lost their starting quarterback for the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a serviceable backup, but Andrew Luck hasn't lost consecutive games yet this season, and he almost certainly isn't about to do so now. The Colts are 3-1 on the road and their only road loss came, in large part, because of an astounding number of dropped passes from a typically sure-handed Colts receiving corps. The Titans simply don't have the offensive firepower to win this game. Luck will bounce back with a big win this evening. COLTS 31-17.
I feel as though it's simply bad luck for me to be overly optimistic about the Ravens. Both of the times this season that I've picked the Ravens to lose have been games where they've totally shocked us and won. I wasn't incredibly surprised when they won last week, but I did pick them to lose. That in no way means I'll be picking the Ravens to lose each week in hopes of being pleasantly surprised, but I'm going to attempt to be more objective in my analysis than at the beginning of the season and pay careful attention to Friday's injury report. I keep repeating that the Ravens simply have to weather the storm until Dennis Pitta gets back, and I'm sticking to that statement. If Pitta can be even just 80-90% of what he was last season then the Ravens should see a dramatic increase in offensive production. Do not underestimate the effect of a 6'5" receiver with great hands who has a knack for converting 3rd downs and keeping drives alive. Oh, and the Ravens defense is back in full swing with Lardarius Webb finally returning to form in time for a playoff push! Keep the faith Baltimore, a postseason berth isn't far off or far-fetched.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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