There has only been two weeks since the Ravens faced the Chargers in L.A., and somehow it doesn't matter that Philip Rivers has historically had almost no success in the playoffs; many pundits still predict a win for a team that just lost at home to the Ravens 22-10. It's not that the Chargers aren't a good team--they are. It's simply that they lack what it takes to beat the Ravens: a reasonably mobile quarterback.
Evading the Ravens pressure is no easy feat, but it certainly has been done this season. Patrick Mahomes did it juuuust enough to make one more play than the Ravens needed to allow to win in Kansas City, and Drew Brees did it repeatedly on 3rd and 4th downs to find Michael Thomas for critical drive-extending passes that ultimately made the difference in a game the Ravens lost by a single point. Two weeks ago, however, the Philip Rivers found no such luck. He looked slow and utterly bewildered by the ways the Ravens brought pressure to the point that his otherwise high-flying offense was held to a pedestrian 10 points.
It's highly likely that the Chargers will attempt to run an up-tempo offense in hopes of getting the Ravens defense on its heels and to prevent Baltimore from executing more sophisticated blitzes, but that will likely be hindered by deafening noise from what may prove to be one of the most motivated, raucous crowds in recent Ravens home game history. Beyond crowd noise, this game will feel as though it's being played at 10:00 AM for the Chargers as they are traveling nearly 3000 miles to play a 1:00PM game in the Eastern time zone. No one should be surprised if a team used to playing in southern California struggles to find an offensive rhythm against the top defense in the league in a cold, wet playoff environment in what functionally feels like the morning to them.
I have heard all week how the Chargers will have figured out the Ravens offense having already faced it once before. I am not entirely sure how they have some kind of advantage on that front considering the Ravens have also already seen the Chargers offense and will have had even more time to prepare for it as the Ravens never had to take a day to travel for this game. It certainly does make me nervous that Lamar Jackson has struggled to finish drives, but the Ravens still managed to dominate in total yards with 361 versus a disappointing 198 for the Chargers. The Ravens also had a slightly greater number of first downs and won the time of possession battle.
Despite appearing to be the better team nearly all night in their last meeting with the Chargers, the Ravens still found themselves being driven on by Philips Rivers and company before Patrick Onwassor had one of the most timely forced fumbles taken back for a touchdown in Ravens team history. The same was true last week against the Browns when it took an interception on 4th down to beat a Browns team that came storming back to make the city of Baltimore hold its collective breath. I would say that these isolated occurrences, but critical turnovers and defensive points have been so frequent in the second half of this season that they seem likely rather than lucky.
Many would point to the Ravens offense's ability to sustain drives and keep its defense well-rested and off the field as a reason for an increase in big-time impact defensive plays. I'm sure that has played a major factor, but I would actually point to the fact that this is the first stretch this season where both a healthy Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey have taken the field together. Before Lamar Jackson took over as starting quarterback, the Ravens had a healthy Marlon until he was injured. With Marlon out, the Ravens turned to Jimmy Smith, but he struggled in his first few weeks back and didn't start to round into form until he had played for about a month. As Jimmy got back up to speed and Marlon returned to the field, the Ravens defense suddenly started to look like the dominant unit it should have been all year, and having a pair of quality corners on the outside goes a long way to allow your pass-rushers to hunt and allows a defensive coordinator to bring pressure with more confidence.
There's simply no way the Chargers have gotten so significantly better in two weeks that they'll be able to totally flip the script of the last game and dominate the Ravens--right? Well there is one factor that must be accounted for when analyzing the Ravens: fumbles. Lamar Jackson has had a troubling number of fumbles that have stifled drives and allowed games to stay much closer than they could be. The fumble at the goal line last week against the Browns was baffling as it was only inches away from being a touchdown had Lamar not perplexingly pulled the ball back just as it was about to break the plane of the end zone. A major focus this week by the Ravens staff has to be reduce the odds of such mistakes and utilizing running backs and receivers more to take the pressure off of Lamar. The Ravens won the turnover battle 3-1 last time they played the Chargers, and they need to do it again.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'm not worried because even if the Chargers come out swinging and the Ravens find themselves down by 10-14 points late, they still have a quarterback sitting on the sidelines who can run an effective two-minute drill and is has ice in his veins in the playoffs. I'm confident the Ravens won't be forced to resort to putting Flacco back in, but if they need him, he's there. In the end, that's the reason the Ravens can run the offense they run without fear that they lose their starting quarterback. If they do lose their starting quarterback...well they have their starting quarterback who has more playoff wins than any quarterback in the league other than Tom Brady right now. Whatever happens here, the Ravens are prepared.
PREDICTION:
RAVENS 23-17
GET LOUD, BALTIMORE, THIS IS THE MOMENT WE'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR!!!
STAY TUNED TOMORROW FOR THE EAGLES-BEARS ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, January 5, 2019
NFL PLAYOFFS WILDCARD ROUND: SEAHAWKS AT COWBOYS
With the exception of the Patriots, no team has had as much post-season success during this decade as the Seahawks. There was a time where Seattle's success seemed to be securely rooted in its defensive prowess with a historically outrageous amount of talent suffocating even historically great offenses such as that of the 2013 Denver Broncos. The legendary Legion of Boom is, however, now a thing of the past with nearly all of its members retired or on different teams. It is because of this Pete Carroll should be revered for his ability to overcome the loss of some of the biggest names in the game and find away to redefine the identity of his team, overcome a poor start to the season, and ultimately earn a playoff berth.
The Dallas Cowboys had to overcome a similarly poor start to their own season to find their way to a division championship and a home playoff game. Their offense finished ranked a disappointing 22nd in the league in both yards and points per game, but Dallas' defense finished the season ranked an impressive 7th. Dallas' offensive ranking, however, is at least somewhat misleading as their ability to move the football changed drastically following a trade for Amari Cooper. It wasn't necessarily an increase in the Cowboys' average points per game, because that was itself a misleading statistic prior to the arrival of Cooper as the Cowboys produced big time against poor opponents during their few early victories, but they produced little against almost anyone else. Instead one could look to the quality of opponent the Cowboys were finding a way to beat. With better offensive production, their offense sustained drives and kept their defense fresher. The Cowboys held the electric Saints offense to a shocking 10 points, and the Cowboys offense give them enough support to sweep the playoff-bound Eagles, and put up major points in always-tough divisional matchups against the Redskins and Giants.
The Seahawks experienced their own offensive upswing, but they did so seemingly on the sheer will of Russell Wilson who I contend might actually be the most valuable quarterback in the NFL at this point regardless of impressive performances by the likes of Brees, Brady, and Rodgers on any given year. After narrow losses to the powerhouse Chargers and Rams, the Seahawks went on 5-1 run to finish their season in which they averaged an outrageous 34.83 points. The Seahawks even put up a monster 38 points on the Chiefs in a game wherein Wilson out-dueled the sensational Patrick Mahomes.
Now the Seahawks and Cowboys did meet earlier this season, but the Cowboys were still without Amari Cooper and had not yet found their groove. That game was also on the road in Seattle, and few football fans are unaware of exactly what a difficult road environment it typically is. The Seahawks will not have the advantage of a thunderous crowd behind them, and they won't have any remnants of the legion of boom to help shut down a revived Dallas offense. What will the Seahawks have? They will have Russell Wilson, his underrated receivers, and the league's top rushing attack (the Ravens are ranked 2nd). They will have an offense that has found a way to score on even the elite defense of the Vikings while putting up major points on lesser teams such as the 49ers.
The Cowboys will come to this fight with their guns loaded and shouldn't themselves be underestimated. The Cowboys only lost a single game at home this season. Their road record is significantly worse, and that may come into play should they move on to the next round, but tonight is the game is in Arlington. Dak Prescott isn't remotely as talented as Russell Wilson, but he has an impressive running back to help take pressure off of him and just enough receiving weapons to whom he can distribute the ball. Add to that a defense that has stifled some impressive offenses this year and you officially have a more balanced team that the Seattle Seahawks.
On paper one could point to a better defense, home-field advantage, and an offense that can grind down the clock to take away offensive opportunities for the opposing team as reasons to pick the Dallas Cowboys. I'm hesitant commit to that seemingly safe assessment because of just how incredibly experienced and intelligent the Seahawks have been in the playoffs during this decade. As highly ranked as the Cowboys defense finished this season, it never totally shut down even lesser opponents down the stretch. Decisions, decisions. In the end I think I have to go with the better coaching staff, better quarterback, and the offense that finds a way to put up points on essentially anyone.
PREDICTION:
SEAHAWKS 30-24
STAY TUNED FOR TOMORROW'S PREDICTIONS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
The Dallas Cowboys had to overcome a similarly poor start to their own season to find their way to a division championship and a home playoff game. Their offense finished ranked a disappointing 22nd in the league in both yards and points per game, but Dallas' defense finished the season ranked an impressive 7th. Dallas' offensive ranking, however, is at least somewhat misleading as their ability to move the football changed drastically following a trade for Amari Cooper. It wasn't necessarily an increase in the Cowboys' average points per game, because that was itself a misleading statistic prior to the arrival of Cooper as the Cowboys produced big time against poor opponents during their few early victories, but they produced little against almost anyone else. Instead one could look to the quality of opponent the Cowboys were finding a way to beat. With better offensive production, their offense sustained drives and kept their defense fresher. The Cowboys held the electric Saints offense to a shocking 10 points, and the Cowboys offense give them enough support to sweep the playoff-bound Eagles, and put up major points in always-tough divisional matchups against the Redskins and Giants.
The Seahawks experienced their own offensive upswing, but they did so seemingly on the sheer will of Russell Wilson who I contend might actually be the most valuable quarterback in the NFL at this point regardless of impressive performances by the likes of Brees, Brady, and Rodgers on any given year. After narrow losses to the powerhouse Chargers and Rams, the Seahawks went on 5-1 run to finish their season in which they averaged an outrageous 34.83 points. The Seahawks even put up a monster 38 points on the Chiefs in a game wherein Wilson out-dueled the sensational Patrick Mahomes.
Now the Seahawks and Cowboys did meet earlier this season, but the Cowboys were still without Amari Cooper and had not yet found their groove. That game was also on the road in Seattle, and few football fans are unaware of exactly what a difficult road environment it typically is. The Seahawks will not have the advantage of a thunderous crowd behind them, and they won't have any remnants of the legion of boom to help shut down a revived Dallas offense. What will the Seahawks have? They will have Russell Wilson, his underrated receivers, and the league's top rushing attack (the Ravens are ranked 2nd). They will have an offense that has found a way to score on even the elite defense of the Vikings while putting up major points on lesser teams such as the 49ers.
The Cowboys will come to this fight with their guns loaded and shouldn't themselves be underestimated. The Cowboys only lost a single game at home this season. Their road record is significantly worse, and that may come into play should they move on to the next round, but tonight is the game is in Arlington. Dak Prescott isn't remotely as talented as Russell Wilson, but he has an impressive running back to help take pressure off of him and just enough receiving weapons to whom he can distribute the ball. Add to that a defense that has stifled some impressive offenses this year and you officially have a more balanced team that the Seattle Seahawks.
On paper one could point to a better defense, home-field advantage, and an offense that can grind down the clock to take away offensive opportunities for the opposing team as reasons to pick the Dallas Cowboys. I'm hesitant commit to that seemingly safe assessment because of just how incredibly experienced and intelligent the Seahawks have been in the playoffs during this decade. As highly ranked as the Cowboys defense finished this season, it never totally shut down even lesser opponents down the stretch. Decisions, decisions. In the end I think I have to go with the better coaching staff, better quarterback, and the offense that finds a way to put up points on essentially anyone.
PREDICTION:
SEAHAWKS 30-24
STAY TUNED FOR TOMORROW'S PREDICTIONS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
NFL PLAYOFFS WILDCARD ROUND: COLTS AT TEXANS
Neither of Saturday's games feature the Ravens, but that actually gives fans in Baltimore a chance to relax and simply enjoy watching football without the inevitable anxiety that I am deadly certain I'm not alone in feeling on any given weekend during the season. Saturday's matchups feature two pairs of teams that all started the season rather poorly. The Cowboys began the season 3-5, the Colts began the season 1-5, the Seahawks were 4-5 after 9 weeks, and the Texans were 0-3 early one before winning their next 9 straight. It is for that reason that football fans should avoid proclamations about teams after a fast start or an early slump. The hottest team through the first 3/4 of the regular season is often not nearly the most dominant team when the post-season rolls around. A good coaching staff will evaluate weaknesses and make adjustments after losses, and teams such as the Seahawks and Patriots almost always begin the season with a losing record through the first month before getting on track.
The other major factor beyond simple coaching adjustments is the health and available personnel of a team late in the season. The Chiefs, for example, appeared nearly unstoppable for much of the season, but they then lost one of their most dominant weapons when video surfaced of star running back Kareem Hunt getting into an altercation with a woman in a hotel. That isn't to say that the Chiefs aren't still a major Super Bowl contender, but their ability to grind down the clock to keep their own inept defense off the field has definitely taken a major hit without Hunt. Meanwhile the Cowboys traded for Amari Cooper, and not a moment too soon. Their offense suddenly began to function again, and like the Ravens, their offensive success helped their defense to become more well rested and explosive to close out games.
I've heard many people give cliche predictions about who they expect to see in the Super Bowl such as the Saints, Chiefs, Rams, and Patriots, but I it would not shock me to see one or even two teams from today's games make it to the AFC and NFC Championship. After all, some of the strongest teams in the league at this moment had some of the poorest starts to the regular season.
COLTS AT TEXANS
Of the five remaining teams, the Texans have taken the biggest hit as of late when they lost Demaryius Thomas to a tore Achilles in December. After winning 9 straight games, the Texans went 2-2 to finish the season including a 24-21 loss to the Colts in Houston. The Colts, meanwhile, haven't lost in over a month and won 9 of their last 10 games. It would be easy to point to the last matchup between these two teams and crown the Colts the champion, but it was such an incredibly close game that it would be far wiser to examine what has happened since.
Heading into today's game, the Colts have only a single lesser-known player listed as questionable, but even he is slated to play. The Texans have no injuries reported, but they are, of course, without Demaryius Thomas. Thomas' effect on the the Texans offense may not have appeared particularly profound as his stats didn't jump off the page, but his presence at the very least helps to take pressure off of DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins, however, may struggle for a different reason.
Despite not appearing on the team's official injury report today, DeAndre Hopkins has dealt with an ankle injury all week. The elite receiver will definitely play, but a major part of his effectiveness comes from his ability to stick his foot in the ground and cut. It's safe to wonder just how much his ankle will hinder his ability to perform.
The Colts, meanwhile, have found success with T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron leading the way in the receiving corps along with a handful of supporting receivers with between 300 to nearly 500 receiving yards a piece. Andrew Luck has enough weapons with which to spread the ball around, and a decent rushing attack to compliment them with Marlon Mack totally 908 rushing yards on the season and an impressive 4.7 yards per carry. The Colts offensive line has been instrumental in the revival of Luck's career but will have its hands full facing the likes of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney.
The Colts and Texans defenses ranked 11th and 12th in the league respectively. From a matchup standpoint, however, the Texans ranked near the bottom of the league in pass defense while the Colts pass defense fell in the middle of the pack at #16. This will likely prove pivotal as I don't foresee the Texans defense having quite enough to stop a balanced Colts passing attack considering just how dangerous Andrew Luck is when he has time to sit in the pocket and throw.
PREDICTION:
Like both of the regular season games between these two teams, this will come down to a single score, but with DeAndre Hopkins not 100% and the recent loss of DeMaryius Thomas, it's difficult to imagine the Texans having quite enough offensive firepower to come out on top.
COLTS 27-24
STAY TUNED FOR THE PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT'S SEAHAWKS-COWBOYS MATCHUP!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The other major factor beyond simple coaching adjustments is the health and available personnel of a team late in the season. The Chiefs, for example, appeared nearly unstoppable for much of the season, but they then lost one of their most dominant weapons when video surfaced of star running back Kareem Hunt getting into an altercation with a woman in a hotel. That isn't to say that the Chiefs aren't still a major Super Bowl contender, but their ability to grind down the clock to keep their own inept defense off the field has definitely taken a major hit without Hunt. Meanwhile the Cowboys traded for Amari Cooper, and not a moment too soon. Their offense suddenly began to function again, and like the Ravens, their offensive success helped their defense to become more well rested and explosive to close out games.
I've heard many people give cliche predictions about who they expect to see in the Super Bowl such as the Saints, Chiefs, Rams, and Patriots, but I it would not shock me to see one or even two teams from today's games make it to the AFC and NFC Championship. After all, some of the strongest teams in the league at this moment had some of the poorest starts to the regular season.
COLTS AT TEXANS
Of the five remaining teams, the Texans have taken the biggest hit as of late when they lost Demaryius Thomas to a tore Achilles in December. After winning 9 straight games, the Texans went 2-2 to finish the season including a 24-21 loss to the Colts in Houston. The Colts, meanwhile, haven't lost in over a month and won 9 of their last 10 games. It would be easy to point to the last matchup between these two teams and crown the Colts the champion, but it was such an incredibly close game that it would be far wiser to examine what has happened since.
Heading into today's game, the Colts have only a single lesser-known player listed as questionable, but even he is slated to play. The Texans have no injuries reported, but they are, of course, without Demaryius Thomas. Thomas' effect on the the Texans offense may not have appeared particularly profound as his stats didn't jump off the page, but his presence at the very least helps to take pressure off of DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins, however, may struggle for a different reason.
Despite not appearing on the team's official injury report today, DeAndre Hopkins has dealt with an ankle injury all week. The elite receiver will definitely play, but a major part of his effectiveness comes from his ability to stick his foot in the ground and cut. It's safe to wonder just how much his ankle will hinder his ability to perform.
The Colts, meanwhile, have found success with T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron leading the way in the receiving corps along with a handful of supporting receivers with between 300 to nearly 500 receiving yards a piece. Andrew Luck has enough weapons with which to spread the ball around, and a decent rushing attack to compliment them with Marlon Mack totally 908 rushing yards on the season and an impressive 4.7 yards per carry. The Colts offensive line has been instrumental in the revival of Luck's career but will have its hands full facing the likes of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney.
The Colts and Texans defenses ranked 11th and 12th in the league respectively. From a matchup standpoint, however, the Texans ranked near the bottom of the league in pass defense while the Colts pass defense fell in the middle of the pack at #16. This will likely prove pivotal as I don't foresee the Texans defense having quite enough to stop a balanced Colts passing attack considering just how dangerous Andrew Luck is when he has time to sit in the pocket and throw.
PREDICTION:
Like both of the regular season games between these two teams, this will come down to a single score, but with DeAndre Hopkins not 100% and the recent loss of DeMaryius Thomas, it's difficult to imagine the Texans having quite enough offensive firepower to come out on top.
COLTS 27-24
STAY TUNED FOR THE PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT'S SEAHAWKS-COWBOYS MATCHUP!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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