Wednesday, February 29, 2012

POST-COMBINE ANALYSIS

          I found myself far more hopeful and excited during this combine than any in the last few years.  Maybe it was the fact that the Ravens were a dropped pass away from a trip to the Superbowl, but the 2011 season gave me serious hope for the 2012 season and beyond.  The Ravens gambled and got rid of a sizeable group of veterans that included Joe Flacco's two favorite receiving weapons who also happened to be the most productive receivers in franchise history.  Before 2011, people frequently brought up the average age of Ravens players and hypothesized that their window to win a Superbowl was closing.  The Ravens, responded by utilizing youthful draft gems to demonstrate that the Ravens' true strength lies in their ability to assess and develop young talent year after year, despite the loss of veteran stars. 
          Players drafted over the last few years made a HUGE splash during the 2011 season.  Lardarius Webb solidified his status as an elite shutdown corner and a leading ballhawk in the AFC. Torrey Smith played almost the entire 2011 season with a hernia and torn groin muscle, but you wouldn't have known it with his shocking speed and spectacular plays.  Dennis Pitta turned into the team's new Heap (he's even Mormon!), and with some offseason strength training he should improve his blocking ability to become a complete tight end.  Pernell McPhee proved a fierce pass rusher and was a total STEAL as the Ravens selected him in the 5th round of the 2011 draft.  Jimmy Smith missed a lot of the season early, but eventually got back into the mix and showed a lot of raw talent and finished the year with 3 interceptions including a jawdropping pick in the playoffs that few other players would have been able to haul in before the ball hit the turf.
         The Ravens roster seems to be just bursting with talent.  The best part, however, is that we've seen in the last two seasons the Ravens have played quite well with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis sidelined for significant chunks of the season.  Now, of course, as soon as they return, Ed and Ray remind the world that they're still elite and the Ravens are simply better when they're both on the field.  Nevertheless, as long as Ozzie Newsome is evaluating young talent, the Ravens will continue to find the next great defensive superstars long after Ravens are forced to bid a tearful farewell to their two most beloved leaders....makes me sick to my stomach just thinking about that...moving on. 
         The Ravens displayed one of the most complete teams in the league in 2011.  They, like any other team, still have personnel needs to fill in order to finally become a team dominant enough to simply bully their way through the season and playoffs to the Superbowl.  The Ravens need a big-bodied, speedy wide receiver with great hands (which team doesn't right?) to finally give Joe Flacco a complete, elite, wide receiving corps.  The Ravens need interior offensive linemen, though it's not clear if they'll need a center or guard as the statuses of Ben Grubbs and Matt Birk or Andre Gurode are all questionable at this point.  The Ravens could use a talented, intense middle linebacker to learn from Ray during the last couple of years Ray's career, and there's always room for more pass rushers as Cory Redding's status isn't entirely clear at this point either.  With all of that said, let's take a look at some combine standouts that could be available to the Ravens at each of these positions!

WIDE RECEIVER:

Stehpen Hill- I had not heard of this guy before the combine, but this numbers speak for themselves.  Hill ran an official 4.36 forty yard dash, he displayed excellent hands and agility, and at 6'4" he has the height to make catches even in tight coverage by cornerbacks.  Hill didn't have standout statistical totals in college, but he averaged over 29 yards per catch...let me repeat myself: HE AVERAGED OVER 29 YARDS PER CATCH.  His low totals can also be heavily attributed to being a part of the Georgia Tech offense that puts up massive rushing yardage and still somehow manages to produce incredibly talented receivers such as Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas.  I would love for the Ravens to pull the trigger on this guy in the first round, but they may find him available in the second round instead.

Alshon Jeffrey- There has been recent criticism of Jeffery's speed and ability to separate from defenders.  Reports that Jeffery had gained weight as of late left some wondering if he would even go in the first round of the draft.  Jeffery did not even run his 40 yard dash at the combine, and that only further reinforced the point of critics who questioned his speed.  I, however, am not one of critics.  I watched Alshon Jeffrey's highlight video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fljiaojL5fM) and came to the conclusion that his physicality, catching ability, and height (he's 6'4" by the way) would be a fantastic compliment to Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin and could quite possibly prove the missing cog in the Ravens' passing game that could take them to a level that the team has never experienced.  Alshon is another receiver that could possibly be available to the Ravens in the second round of the draft.

MIDDLE LINEBACKER:

Dont'a Hightower:  If he falls to the 29th pick, the Ravens simply must select this man.  He ran an official 4.68 forty yard dash, and that is made even more impressive by the fact that he weighed in at 265 pounds and stands over 6'2".  Hightower has rather long arms and uses his superior anticipation to make up for being somewhat heavy.  I have no doubt that Hightower could drop to the 245-250 range and get even better at covering sideline to sideline as well as pass coverage.  This guy won't fall to the second round, so if you can get him at the end of the first, you damn well better do it!

Mychal Kendricks:  If the Ravens don't select a middle linebacker in the first round, then it's entirely possible that they look for one in the second.  Mychal Kendricks displayed incredible speed at the combine with an official 4.47 forty yard dash.  He is exactly the same height as Ray Lewis (6'1") and about 10 pounds lighter at 240.  Like Ray Lewis, Kendricks is a brutal tackler, and his speed would allow him to cover sideline to sideline the way that Ray did for the first decade of his career.  Kendricks wasn't part of an elite college defense the way that Hightower was, but a player of his speed and intensity would almost certainly turn into an absolute animal under the tutelage of Ray Lewis.  If this guy is available by the end of the second round, he absolutely needs to wear a purple draft hat.

OFFENSIVE LINEMAN:

Peter Konz- Many mock drafts already have the Ravens selecting Konz in the first round.  Konz has the size, strength, and leadership ability to put him ahead of the rest of the pack in this year's draft.  Konz is 6'5" and 314 pounds.  He may not be much of a bench presser as he only hit 18 reps with 225 pounds at the combine, but he derives his on-field strength from the power of his hips and legs.  I wouldn't complain if the Ravens selected Konz in the first round of the draft, but with Matt Birk announcing that he's not retiring and fellow probowl center Andre Gurode as his backup, I don't feel that the Ravens are in as dire a need for a center as many have speculated.

PASS RUSHER:

Zach Brown- It wouldn't be right of me not to mention a talented young player from my own high school.  Brown is an exceptional athlete with surprising speed for his size.  He ran a official 4.5 forty yard dash at the combine and weighed in at 244 pounds.  His athletic potential makes him almost a lock for the first round.  With the guidance of Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis, Brown could tap into all of his potential as an NFL athlete.  After a great showing at the combine, I can't see Brown falling to the Ravens at the 29th pick.  The Ravens have decent depth as far as OLB/DE type players are concerned so this isn't an area of dire need, but Ozzie Newsome made it clear that he's looking for pass rushers, and Zach Brown has the speed to chase down just about any quarterback whose name doesn't rhyme with Trychael Vick or Bram Newton.  This Maryland native would look fantastic in purple and black, no doubt.

There are some more players that deserve to be mentioned, but sadly, I have run out of time to write for the day and will continue with more combine analysis tomorrow, so stay tuned!  As always, GO RAVENS!

Thursday, February 9, 2012

BRING ON THE DRAFT!!!! (Part 2)

    So there have been some interesting recent developments in NFL news in the past few days.  Ricky Williams announced his retirement from the NFL, Rob Gronkowski was seen dancing out at a club a day or two after losing the superbowl, fans in Boston demonstrated the definition of what it means to be poor losers, and Gisele Bundchen responded angrily towards criticism of her hubby's late-game Superbowl performance and placed the blame of the loss squarely in the hands of the Patriots' receiving corps. 
    Only one of those stories, however, is serious news that will have any effect on the NFL next season.  The Ravens will have an important decision to make regarding their running back depth in light of Ricky Williams' retirement.  Ricky provided exactly what the Ravens needed in a backup: he was experienced and proven, he was content to serve as the 2nd string back behind Ray Rice, and he provided good speed burst and substantial size to muscle through tacklers when necessary.  The Ravens could opt to give Anthony Allen a try at being Rice's backup.  Allen displayed impressive speed and size in the 2011 pre-season, and he rushed for over 1800 yards in his final season of college.  Allen would be quite a cheap option on a team that could use all of the salary cap space in a year where the Ravens will be looking to sign and retain Ray Rice, Joe Flacco, Ben Grubbs, and Lardarius Webb.  Ozzie Newsome also made it clear that the Ravens will be looking to improve at wide receiver.  This could mean utilizing young receivers such as Tandon Doss and LaQuan Williams, or it could mean going after a big name free agent...and, maaaan, there are some big names out there to choose from!
        The list of unrestricted free agent wide receivers is a who's who of NFL playmakers.  Here are the top 13 options:

1. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
2. Marques Colston, Saints
3. Wes Welker, Patriots.
4. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
5. Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
6. Stevie Johnson, Bills
7. DeSean Jackson,  Eagles
8. Reggie Wayne, Colts
9. Brandon Lloyd, Rams
10. Mario Manningham, Giants
11. Pierre Garcon, Colts
12.  Jerome Simpson, Bengals
13. Robert Meachem,  Saints
        
     Clearly, Ravens fans will be begging their beloved team to pick up the likes of Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, or Dwayne Bowe.  A big receiver with proven hands and great speed would put the Ravens receiving corps into elite status.  Suddenly the Ravens would be able to put Anquan back in the slot where he plays most naturally, they would have Torrey Smith to take the top off opposing defenses, and they'd have a wide receiver who can win jump ball situations and also spread the field.  A Vincent Jackson type receiver could offer the speed, size, and hands to bring the Ravens into the top 10 in total offensive production as added firepower to the passing game would open things up further for Ray Rice and the Ravens' rushing attack.  "GREAT!!! Where do we sign up?", you're probably asking.  Well not so fast.  Receivers of this caliber come with hefty price tags, and "the right player at the right price" has always been the motto of the Ravens' free agent acquisition process.
     Nevertheless, the idea of Vincent Jackson in purple and black is an intriguing one.  We've seen Philip Rivers launch bombs to Jackson for years, and one could only imagine that Flacco's arm strength would allow Jackson's role on the Ravens to be nearly identical.  Only time will tell which of these many free agents will fall into the Ravens' price range and which will simply get re-signed by their current teams. 
     A big, speedy, sure-handed wide receiver would be an enormous piece to the puzzle of the Ravens' pass offense, but acquiring one won't mean much without an solid offensive line to give Flacco time to find his targets.  The Ravens most likely will have to draft a center within the first 2-3 rounds of the draft, but more questions remain because of Ben Grubbs' free agency.  Grubbs is a pro bowl lineman and one that the Ravens should do everything within their power to retain.  Because of his performance, however, Grubbs will have the power to command a high salary and will undoubtedly entertain bids from other teams.  Some have recently mentioned the possibility of Jah Reid moving from back-up tackle to guard and taking Grubbs' place.  Guard is not an easy position for a tackle to play, and Grubbs has the speed and athleticism that Jah Reid may lack at that position.  Reid is, after all, prototypical tackle size at 6'7" and roughly 340 pounds.  Grubbs, by contrast, is 6'3" and much faster at 310 pounds.
     Hopefully the Ravens will be able to free up enough salary cap room to sign Flacco, Rice, Webb and Grubbs to long term deals and still have enough left over to make a serious bid for a big name wide reciever.  Ricky Williams departure will mean that the Ravens will most likely replace him with a much younger and cheaper back in Anthony Allen.  Lee Evans will most likely become a salary cap casualty unless he agrees to play for FAR less money than was agreed upon in his original Raven contract.  Paul Kruger may also take the starting position of veteran linebacker Jarret Johnson, but Kruger has mostly displayed pass rushing abilities and lacks strong run-stopping ability that JJ has provided for close to a decade.  We'll know a lot more by the time the 2012 draft is over, but I have no doubt that Ravens fans across the state will excitedly ponder the possibilites!
As always, GO RAVENS!

Monday, February 6, 2012

BRING ON THE DRAFT!!

   I'm pleased to announce that Purple Nightmare went 6-1 in playoff predictions this season.  My lone incorrect prediction was regrettably that of the AFC Championship.  Alas, what could have been...

   Enough of all of that.  Hats off to the Giants as they clearly earned their second ring in 5 years to become the hottest playoff team of the last half decade. The New York Giants and Green Bay Packers proved 3 out of the last 5 years that the best team of the year doesn't always win the Superbowl.  It is, instead, the best team of the playoffs that wins the Superbowl.  The Ravens, in their lone superbowl win,  proved that very same statement to be true.  The Ravens' 2000 regular season appeared almost completely hopeless at one point, but sometimes losses prove valuable learning tools on the road to late season success.

   The Ravens didn't peak at the right time this year.  Haloti Ngata had a nagging injury in the second half that prevented him from being the dominant force we've all come to know over the past 6 years. Without Ngata bulldozing his way through the middle of opposing offensive lines, Terrell Suggs was given more attention and was rendered almost completely ineffective as a pass rusher for the final 5 games of the season (Suggs had 1 sack during that time span).  Matt Birk truly began to show his age when faced with the task of keeping Vince Wilfork off of Joe Flacco.  Billy Cundiff's leg injury may or may not have had something to do with his missing what should have been one of the easiest field goals of his NFL career.  Lee Evans took far too long to return to good form and, despite some solid catches in the playoffs, he dropped a perfectly placed touchdown pass that would have brought the Ravens to a game that both their organization and fanbase have been dreaming of for 11 years.
   Because of such serious late season issues, the Superbowl simply wasn't in the cards for the Ravens this season.  There were, however, some major bright spots that must be acknowledged and should have Ravens fans counting the seconds to the 2012 NFL Draft.  Ed Reed and Ray Lewis remain elite players at their respective positions and will most likely continue to be big contributors and, at times, game changers next season.  Lardarius Webb solidified himself as the best ball-hawking cornerback in the AFC and 3rd overall cornerback in the conference behind Jonathan Joseph and Darrell Revis.  Jimmy Smith also displayed serious hands with numerous interceptions this year including one spectacular grab against Tom Brady in the playoffs.  Ray Rice was the NFL's greatest all-purpose weapon this year with over 2000 yards from scrimmage and 15 regular season touchdowns.  Pernell McPhee proved to be an absolute late round draft steal with 6.5 sacks in his rookie season.  Dennis Pitta came out of his shell to establish himself as the most reliable pair of hands on the team.  Joe Flacco got over a HUGE hump and swept the Steelers in grand fashion with Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu playing in both games.  Aaaaand last but DEFINITELY not least, Torrey Smith went his first two games as an NFL receiver without a catch, only to answer his many critics with 3 touchdowns for his first 3 NFL receptions.  Smith set a Ravens record with 7 touchdowns by a rookie.
    With so many things going well in 2011, we must look back to the things that went wrong when discussing draft needs.  In their "State of the Ravens" address, members of the Ravens organization mentioned addressing needs at wide receiver, offensive line as well as acquiring more pass rushers and possibly drafting a middle linebacker in the first or second round.  The Ravens' draft policy has long been to draft the best player available so sometimes it's difficult to predict who they'll take.  Along with weaknesses this past season, one must also take into account the Ravens that are now free agents and which players the Ravens can afford to release because of youth and depth behind them at their position.

THIS ARTICLE WILL BE CONTINUED TOMORROW WITH PART II

Friday, February 3, 2012

SUPERBOWL PREDICTION!!!!

    It's that time of the year again.  A time where the Ravens are no longer playing football and yet somehow the season isn't over.  That's right, it's the Superbowl.  As much as it pains me to see the Patriots in the Superbowl, I have very little doubt in my mind that the Lombardi Trophy will not return to New England in 2012.  Let's go over why:

The Gronk Factor (or lack thereof)

    Rob Gronkowski is an enormous reason that the Patriots' offense achieved such a level of dominance this season.  His presence gave Tom Brady a big, mighty, surehanded target in the endzone, and defensive backs and linebackers struggled to bring the 6'6" behemoth down.  Statistically, Gronk had the greatest regular season of any NFL tight end in the history of the game...but the post season has been far less fortunate thus far. 
   Gronkowski obliterated the Broncos with 3 spectacular touchdowns in the divisional round of the playoffs.  There appeared to be nothing that could truly stop him.  Nothing, that is, until the Ravens came to down.  The Ravens starting strong safety this season was a man who, in previous years, personally ended the season of the Patriots' biggest weapons in Tom Brady and Wes Welker.  That trend, unfortunately for the Pats, continued in the AFC Championship as Bernard Pollard tackled Rob Gronkowski around the knees, causing Gronk to come down hard on a painfully bent ankle. 
   Since that injury, many fans and sports pundits have speculated that Gronk will play.  The game-changing tight end practiced on a limited basis on Thursday, but his trainers still have yet to determine whether or not he will be healthy enough to suit up for the big game.  The Patriots' staff could have Gronk's ankle reinforced with tape and/or a brace, and they'll undoubtedly shoot him with enough painkillers to bring down Robert Downey Jr., but Rob Gronkowski will still be injured and will NOT play at nearly the same level that fans are accustomed to seeing.  He'll be slower, he'll be easier to take down, and more importantly, the Giants defensive backs will tackle him low frequently to key in on his weak spot. 
    The New York Giants, on the other hand, are relatively healthy and have seemingly unstoppable momentum.  They already demolished a high powered Green Bay Packers' offense, and they showed they could even go toe to toe on the road with the NFL's stingiest defense.  They ALSO showed, that they could beat a team with a giant, athletic (probably much moreso that Gronk) tight end, Vernon Davis.  The Giants have taken down the best offense and the best defense in the NFL already, they'll now go up against another high octane offense, but THAT will be severly crippled without its biggest weapon playing at 100%.
    In the end, the Giants already beat the Patriots in Foxborough earlier this season.  They proved that, even before they hit their playoff stride, they could take down Brady and the mighty Pats.  The Patriots were stronger back then, and the Giants were weaker.  Now the Patriots will be much weaker, and with the recent surge in the Giants' pass rush, the G-Men will be stronger.  I could go into a lot of statistical reasons why the Patriots will most likely lose, but I have a feeling that stats aren't required in this instance to back up my contention. 

Prediction Time:

-The Giants will sack Brady 3 or more times and force at least 2 turnovers.

-With Rob Gronkowski either out of the game or slowed by his injury, Brady will have less than 300 yards passing and he'll be held to two passing TDs or less.

- Eli Manning, let's not forget, has had a career year throwing close to 5000 yards in the regular season, that that trend won't end tonight as the Giants will have 375+ passing yards and at least 4 passing touchdowns against the worst pass defense in the NFL this season.  Manningham, Cruz, and Nicks will embarrass the Patriots' secondary.

FINAL PREDICTION: 38-20 GIANTS
AND AS ALWAYS, GO RAVENS!!!(Go get some great draft picks and free agents)