It's not technically mid-season as the Ravens have not yet played 8 games. It is, however, the middle of the 16 week season and the Ravens just returned to practice after a much needed bye week. At 3-4 it's tough to be excited about the Ravens going forward. Having a losing record feels awful for a team that has done almost nothing but win most of its games for the last 5 years. It certainly feels awful for a team that just went wild in the playoffs and beat the best two quarterbacks of a generation in their respective home stadiums en route to a Super Bowl victory. There are, however, 4 main reasons that truly loyal Ravens fans have to be optimistic about the Ravens chances of winning most of the rest of their games on their remaining schedule and earning their 6th straight playoffs appearance.
The first of the aforementioned reasons for optimism is the Ravens redzone defense. The Ravens have only allowed 5 touchdowns in their last 6 games. Let that sink in for a moment. After the calamitous Week 1 rout in Denver, the Ravens have tightened up their defense in the redzone and have only allowed 5 touchdowns after even having faced Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. In fact, in weeks 2-7 the Ravens only allowed an average of 16.5 points per game. The defense isn't perfect as it has sometimes struggled to stop teams from driving late in games, but that may have more to do with the fact that the Ravens have almost never played with a lead this season and the offense often struggles to sustain drives for the first three quarters of games. Make no mistake, this Ravens defense is an impressive unit. It may not be elite in the categories of passing and rushing yards allowed, but the scoreboard is what matters, and the Ravens defense has kept opposing teams from scoring much of anything other than field goals even in their recent losses.
As I just mentioned, the Ravens offense has struggled early in games to sustain drives and score. There is, however, reason for hope that this trend will soon be a thing of the past. I've complained many times in previous posts that Juan Castillo's blocking schemes and "run game coordination" are to blame for the Ravens offensive woes. Well the Ravens got away at least partially from Juan Castillo's schemes against the Steelers and saw noticeable improvement in pass protection and run blocking. The major problem was that the Raven lacked the personnel to truly take advantage of such improvements to the offensive line as Bernard Pierce has suffered through a hamstring injury and Ray Rice is only beginning to return to form after a hip flexor strain suffered weeks ago. Both of these talented backs should be healthy this Sunday against the Browns, and that should help establish a running game that will force opponents to bring up at least one safety in run coverage and, thus, clear the way for the return of the deep passes that made Joe Flacco famous. Success on the ground should also allow the Ravens to sell the play action fake and only further create opportunities for bombs to the likes of Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones.
The Ravens won't necessarily have an easy time moving the ball this weekend as they face a rather stout Browns defense on the road. The Ravens, however, will have a favorable matchup as they already beat the Browns once this season and have never lost in Cleveland during the Flacco/Harbaugh era. That brings us to the next reason for Ravens optimism: a favorable schedule going forward. The Raven still have some serious tests ahead of them. They face the Bengals, Lions, Jets, and Patriots, but the Lions appear to be the only truly challenging road matchup until the final week of the season in Cincinnati. The Ravens have the good fortune of getting to face the Patriots, Jets, Bengals, Steelers, and Vikings at home in Baltimore, and they face a broken Bears team, a somewhat offensively scary Lions team, and the Bengals on the road. The Bengals looked great last week against the Jets, but the Jets are so up and down in their performances from week to week that I think their depressing 49-9 loss to the Bengals was more about the Jets inconsistency than the Bengals' dominance. The Bengals, after all, will be without shutdown corner Leon Hall when they face the Ravens this season, and that could mean a big couple of days for Flacco and his targets.
The 4th and final major reason for optimism going forward is that the Ravens organization typically makes good adjustments when their collective back is up against the wall. Sometimes narrow wins over poor or mediocre teams make them complacent and lull them into a false sense of security, but there is certainly no sense of security as the Ravens have lost 3 out of their last 4 games. The Ravens, in fact, went through almost an identical situation last season when they lost 3 games in a row after starting out red hot with a 9-2 record through the first 11 weeks. The string of 3 losses ended up being the best thing that could have possibly happened to the Ravens as it forced them to fire a coach whose offensive schemes and play-calling held the team back in pivotal moments. The Ravens are in a similar predicament right now, and like last season, it's abundantly clear which coach is to blame for issues with offensive schemes. The Ravens have not yet fired Juan Castillo and maybe they don't plan to do so in the near future, but they are now acutely aware that his changes to the Ravens offense are largely to blame for the sharp drop off in rushing production the likes of which have never been seen in this organization. Enough is enough, and I'm quite sure Harbaugh feels the same way at this point. There's no more room for error and no more room to experiment with Juan Castillo's system. It's simply not a good fit here and we almost certainly won't see much of it anymore.
If I had to make an overly optimistic guess right now, I'd say the Ravens will likely beat the Browns, Bengals, Steelers, Bears, Vikings, Patriots, and Jets while losing on the road to the Lions and Bengals late in the season. If the Ravens stand nothing to gain by winning in the final week of the season, they may very well once again sit their starters and take a loss to the Bengals to gain the same effect as a bye week with a 10-6 record. That, however, is totally presumptuous as it all totally depends on how the divisional and wildcard races pan out. The Ravens may NEED to win an 11th game to get into the playoffs, or maybe they will have lost another one of the games they played and reaching 10 wins will require they play their starters every week. Regardless of what the future holds, the Ravens have few games that appear truly daunting. The Lions aren't unbeatable and they play defense poorly, but the Ravens aren't a great road team and Megatron is a matchup nightmare for anyone. I'll be thrilled if the Ravens can win in Detroit but I won't be even mildly surprised if they lose. The Baltimore Ravens don't have to be perfect in the last 9 games of the season, but they only have room for 1-2 losses. They need only to make minor corrections to change this offensive unit back to one capable of scoring 30+ points in any given game. The question is, will they ACTUALLY make those corrections? We will know in only a few short days.
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION
BENGALS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins began the year red hot but have simmered down as of late. In their last 3 games, the Dolphins have had major chances to win and even appeared to finally have figured out the Patriots last weekend...and then the second half of the game happened. The Dolphins lost their last 3 close games while the Bengals have won some very close games against some of the same opponents to which the Dolphins narrowly lost. That isn't to say that this couldn't be a trap game for the Bengals. They'll be on the road on an extremely short week against a team with a talented young quarterback and some solid receivers. The Bengals will be without their star cornerback Leon Hall for the rest of the season and that may open things up for the Dolphins' aerial attack. The Dolphins also recently helped solidify their pass protection in a trade for Bryant McKinnie, so the Bengals will have a bit more to deal with when getting after Ryan Tannehill. I would love to see the Dolphins win this one and surprise the world, but the Bengals are clicking too much on offense recently. Andy Dalton is having a breakout year and A.J. Green will give headaches to the Dolphins defensive backs. On top of that, even with the acquisition of Bryant McKinnie, the Dolphins will face a harrowing Bengals pass rush that will almost certainly get to Ryan Tannehill multiple times and force some poor throws. This will be close, but the Bengals have found a way to win close games while the Dolphins have found ways to lose them. BENGALS 27-21.
Members of the Ravens and their coaching staff have said this is a "must win game" against the Browns. They are correct. It is a must win game because it's one of the easiest matchups the Ravens have left. The Browns aren't an easy opponent and usually play the Ravens closely, but they're a team that often lacks the edge to put teams away late. The Ravens have played many close games against the Browns in the last 6 seasons, but they have always found a way to win. The Browns will be playing with their third quarterback and with lackluster running backs. If the Ravens CAN'T win this game, then there's little reason to expect them to beat any of the tougher opponents on their remaining schedule let alone win playoff games. If the Ravens coaching staff hasn't solved the schematic puzzle that has held this offense back by this weekend, it's safe to assume they simply won't do so this season. This is essentially the Ravens last stand, I have faith they'll come through....at least this week. DON'T LOSE HOPE, BALTIMORE.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Sunday, October 27, 2013
WEEK 8 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Ravens won't suit up this weekend, but that doesn't mean Week 8 isn't vitally important to their playoff chances. The Ravens are still in the hunt to win their division, but they've found themselves two wins behind the Bengals and dead even in the loss column with the Steelers. With that said, the Steelers still only have two wins, but that could all change tomorrow. The Steelers are 1-2 versus the Raiders since 2009, and there's actually a solid chance that the Raiders could once again take down Big Ben and company in Oakland on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Bengals play the Jets in Cincinnati. Both teams are coming off of close wins, but the Bengals have won 5 of their last 6 while the Jets have followed each one of their wins with a loss thus far this season. The Browns appear to be finished as they will start Jason Campbell in place of Brandon Weeden, but the Browns still possess an impressive defense that could make things tough for a relatively lackluster Chiefs offense.
Equally important to how the Ravens rivals fare during Week 8 is how the Ravens recover during their time off. The Ravens made some strides in a number of areas despite their loss to the Steelers. The offensive line looked improved even if the Ravens offense didn't look particularly explosive. One must remember that AFC North teams always play each other closely regardless of their overall records, and the Steelers still possess an elite pass defense. The Steelers also appear to have made strong adjustments as they've won their last two games against at least somewhat legitimate teams.
The bye week will allow the Ravens to get healthy and make further adjustments to revert further back to their old style of blocking and running from before Juan Castillo took over the offensive line. I'm no longer optimistic to the point of bias about the Ravens chances to get to the playoffs, but I still believe there is hope. I refuse, however, to become hopeful unless the Ravens win their next two games. If the Ravens lose to the Browns, Bengals, or both, there is little reason to believe they'll make the playoffs. One huge factor is that Dennis Pitta is on schedule to return sometime before the end of November. If the Ravens lose their next two games, they'll fall to 3-6 and Pitta will be told not to even attempt to return this season. If the Ravens can win their next two games, then one of Joe Flacco's favorite targets will return to provide a huge boost to the Ravens offense in time for mid-late season push for the playoffs. In this way, winning will beget more winning.
The biggest key to winning will be offensive production. If the Ravens can fix their running game and find ways to play with a lead, their defense will prove far more effective. Right now, the teams have typically played with a lead over the Ravens, and this has meant that opponents tend to run the ball far more against the birds. The Ravens have struggled to defend the run, but they excel at rushing the passer. If the Ravens can run the ball well and once again unleash a balanced offensive attack wherein they find the end zone early, then opposing teams will be forced to pass against the Ravens far more and will find themselves under siege by Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, Arthur Jones, and company.
As I said earlier this week, the Ravens defense has allowed only 4 touchdowns in their last 6 games. They struggle to stop teams from going on long drives late in games, but they typically hold teams out of the endzone and make opponents settle for field goals. The Ravens simply have to score touchdowns instead of field goals, and they'll win many games going forward. Ok, enough about the Ravens, let's get to the Week 8 NFL PREDICTIONS!
WEEK 8 NFL PREDICTIONS
COWBOYS AT LIONS- These teams are incredibly similar. They both possess top 5 pass offenses and horrendous pass defenses. The Cowboys are coming off of a win over a sorry Eagles team, while the Lions lost a hard fought win to the Bengals last week. The Cowboys are 1-2 on the road this season and the Lions are 2-1 at home...I know that's not exactly complicated analysis, but I simply couldn't find enough else to tilt this game in favor of one team or another. The Lions defensive line should give Romo problems. This is going to be a shootout with VERY little defense played. This one could go either way, but I'm going with the home team here. LIONS 42-38.
BROWNS AT CHIEFS- Hmmmm, Jason Campbell throwing against the Chiefs defense in Arrowhead Stadium. One the one hand...wait no there's only one hand. The Chiefs won't break their winning streak against a Browns team with this joker starting, but this also won't be a blowout win as the Browns defense is serious. CHIEFS 20-13.
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- I would LOVE to see the Dolphins beat the Patriots, and they might do so this season, but not in Foxboro. Gronk is back in a big way and he'll be on the field on Sunday, that's enough for me. I am curious to see how Bryant McKinnie does for the Fins, but I don't think he'll be enough protection to win this game. PATRIOTS 24-17.
BILLS AT SAINTS- The Saints are looking quite impressive this season, I can't see any scenario where the Bills upset them at home unless Drew Brees is somehow taken out of the game. SAINTS 35-21.
GIANTS AT EAGLES- I don't have much faith in the Eagles, but I have less faith in the Giants on road this season. I would call this the "who cares bowl" except that the NFC East is so bad that this game actually somehow means something. Michael Vick will be back and that should be enough to take down the Giants. EAGLES 33-23.
49ERS AT JAGUARS- At what point will the Jags simply forfeit games? They might as well do so this week. 49ERS 36-10.
JETS AT BENGALS- The Jets won a huge game against the Patriots last week, but they simply can't seem to string together two wins in a row and they've only won a single road game thus far this season against an extremely weak Falcons team. I like the Jets defense and running game, but Geno turns the ball over too often and the Bengals will capitalize since they have quite an impressive defense and running game themselves. This Bengals team is strong in every phase of the game and they won't lose at home to the Jets...I really hope they do though. BENGALS 24-23.
STEELERS AT RAIDERS- I was impressed with the Steelers over the last two weeks. This is not the same team that went 0-4 in the first month of the season. The Raiders' offense is simply too one-dimensional and that will be easy for Dick LaBeau's guys to stop. The only things the Raiders have going for them are the facts that they're coming off of a bye week and will be playing at home. STEELERS 21-16.
REDSKINS AT BRONCOS- What an incredible mismatch. The Redskins have a terrible secondary and Peyton Manning is the greatest regular season quarterback in a generation. BRONCOS 45-31.
FALCONS AT CARDINALS- Bravo Falcons, you beat one of the two worst teams in the league last week. You will lose this week, but who even cares? CARDINALS 30-20.
PACKERS AT VIKINGS- The Packers have numerous injuries to their top receivers, but the Vikings simply couldn't be a worse team with Josh Freeman starting at QB. Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson is suffering from hamstring issues. PACKERS 35-10.
SEAHAWKS AT RAMS- The Rams tend to play divisional opponents tough...but not without Sam Bradford. SEAHAWKS 27-13.
As I said before, there is still hope that the Ravens can get healthy, make the correct offensive adjustments, and then explode into the late part of the season once Dennis Pitta comes, back, but they first must win the next two games against divisional opponents. I will no longer give them the benefit of a doubt, but the Ravens tend to come out swinging after a bye week. One other side note: the Bengals lost Leon Hall with an achilles injury. This could make a trip to Baltimore in two weeks MUCH tougher as the Bengals will no longer have a shutdown corner to stick Torrey Smith all day. That will still undoubtedly be a tough, hard-fought game, but the Ravens will definitely gain an advantage since the Bengals will be without their top defensive back. Stay optimistic, Baltimore, but let's just be happy Ray and the boys won the Super Bowl last season.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Equally important to how the Ravens rivals fare during Week 8 is how the Ravens recover during their time off. The Ravens made some strides in a number of areas despite their loss to the Steelers. The offensive line looked improved even if the Ravens offense didn't look particularly explosive. One must remember that AFC North teams always play each other closely regardless of their overall records, and the Steelers still possess an elite pass defense. The Steelers also appear to have made strong adjustments as they've won their last two games against at least somewhat legitimate teams.
The bye week will allow the Ravens to get healthy and make further adjustments to revert further back to their old style of blocking and running from before Juan Castillo took over the offensive line. I'm no longer optimistic to the point of bias about the Ravens chances to get to the playoffs, but I still believe there is hope. I refuse, however, to become hopeful unless the Ravens win their next two games. If the Ravens lose to the Browns, Bengals, or both, there is little reason to believe they'll make the playoffs. One huge factor is that Dennis Pitta is on schedule to return sometime before the end of November. If the Ravens lose their next two games, they'll fall to 3-6 and Pitta will be told not to even attempt to return this season. If the Ravens can win their next two games, then one of Joe Flacco's favorite targets will return to provide a huge boost to the Ravens offense in time for mid-late season push for the playoffs. In this way, winning will beget more winning.
The biggest key to winning will be offensive production. If the Ravens can fix their running game and find ways to play with a lead, their defense will prove far more effective. Right now, the teams have typically played with a lead over the Ravens, and this has meant that opponents tend to run the ball far more against the birds. The Ravens have struggled to defend the run, but they excel at rushing the passer. If the Ravens can run the ball well and once again unleash a balanced offensive attack wherein they find the end zone early, then opposing teams will be forced to pass against the Ravens far more and will find themselves under siege by Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, Arthur Jones, and company.
As I said earlier this week, the Ravens defense has allowed only 4 touchdowns in their last 6 games. They struggle to stop teams from going on long drives late in games, but they typically hold teams out of the endzone and make opponents settle for field goals. The Ravens simply have to score touchdowns instead of field goals, and they'll win many games going forward. Ok, enough about the Ravens, let's get to the Week 8 NFL PREDICTIONS!
WEEK 8 NFL PREDICTIONS
COWBOYS AT LIONS- These teams are incredibly similar. They both possess top 5 pass offenses and horrendous pass defenses. The Cowboys are coming off of a win over a sorry Eagles team, while the Lions lost a hard fought win to the Bengals last week. The Cowboys are 1-2 on the road this season and the Lions are 2-1 at home...I know that's not exactly complicated analysis, but I simply couldn't find enough else to tilt this game in favor of one team or another. The Lions defensive line should give Romo problems. This is going to be a shootout with VERY little defense played. This one could go either way, but I'm going with the home team here. LIONS 42-38.
BROWNS AT CHIEFS- Hmmmm, Jason Campbell throwing against the Chiefs defense in Arrowhead Stadium. One the one hand...wait no there's only one hand. The Chiefs won't break their winning streak against a Browns team with this joker starting, but this also won't be a blowout win as the Browns defense is serious. CHIEFS 20-13.
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- I would LOVE to see the Dolphins beat the Patriots, and they might do so this season, but not in Foxboro. Gronk is back in a big way and he'll be on the field on Sunday, that's enough for me. I am curious to see how Bryant McKinnie does for the Fins, but I don't think he'll be enough protection to win this game. PATRIOTS 24-17.
BILLS AT SAINTS- The Saints are looking quite impressive this season, I can't see any scenario where the Bills upset them at home unless Drew Brees is somehow taken out of the game. SAINTS 35-21.
GIANTS AT EAGLES- I don't have much faith in the Eagles, but I have less faith in the Giants on road this season. I would call this the "who cares bowl" except that the NFC East is so bad that this game actually somehow means something. Michael Vick will be back and that should be enough to take down the Giants. EAGLES 33-23.
49ERS AT JAGUARS- At what point will the Jags simply forfeit games? They might as well do so this week. 49ERS 36-10.
JETS AT BENGALS- The Jets won a huge game against the Patriots last week, but they simply can't seem to string together two wins in a row and they've only won a single road game thus far this season against an extremely weak Falcons team. I like the Jets defense and running game, but Geno turns the ball over too often and the Bengals will capitalize since they have quite an impressive defense and running game themselves. This Bengals team is strong in every phase of the game and they won't lose at home to the Jets...I really hope they do though. BENGALS 24-23.
STEELERS AT RAIDERS- I was impressed with the Steelers over the last two weeks. This is not the same team that went 0-4 in the first month of the season. The Raiders' offense is simply too one-dimensional and that will be easy for Dick LaBeau's guys to stop. The only things the Raiders have going for them are the facts that they're coming off of a bye week and will be playing at home. STEELERS 21-16.
REDSKINS AT BRONCOS- What an incredible mismatch. The Redskins have a terrible secondary and Peyton Manning is the greatest regular season quarterback in a generation. BRONCOS 45-31.
FALCONS AT CARDINALS- Bravo Falcons, you beat one of the two worst teams in the league last week. You will lose this week, but who even cares? CARDINALS 30-20.
PACKERS AT VIKINGS- The Packers have numerous injuries to their top receivers, but the Vikings simply couldn't be a worse team with Josh Freeman starting at QB. Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson is suffering from hamstring issues. PACKERS 35-10.
SEAHAWKS AT RAMS- The Rams tend to play divisional opponents tough...but not without Sam Bradford. SEAHAWKS 27-13.
As I said before, there is still hope that the Ravens can get healthy, make the correct offensive adjustments, and then explode into the late part of the season once Dennis Pitta comes, back, but they first must win the next two games against divisional opponents. I will no longer give them the benefit of a doubt, but the Ravens tend to come out swinging after a bye week. One other side note: the Bengals lost Leon Hall with an achilles injury. This could make a trip to Baltimore in two weeks MUCH tougher as the Bengals will no longer have a shutdown corner to stick Torrey Smith all day. That will still undoubtedly be a tough, hard-fought game, but the Ravens will definitely gain an advantage since the Bengals will be without their top defensive back. Stay optimistic, Baltimore, but let's just be happy Ray and the boys won the Super Bowl last season.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, October 24, 2013
WEEK 7 NFL RAVENS REACTION AND THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
I'm simply done giving the Ravens the benefit of a doubt. It's not that they don't have the play-makers or depth to win games, it's that the coaching simply isn't what it needs to be. The Ravens have suffered their last three losses to mediocre teams by painfully narrow margins. In each of these games, coaching has been a major factor that tipped the scales in favor of the opposition, and it's coaching that has left the Ravens 3-4 rather than 6-1. There are some troubling trends in each of these three most recent losses that we must examine to fully understand just exactly what it is the Ravens need to correct in their bye week.
The first such trend is the number six. For some reason the Ravens have possessed only six points (or less) in the first half of most of the games they've played this season. Much of this can be attributed to early attempts to establish the running game that have, for a few different reasons, led to early and frequent three-and-outs for the offense. The Ravens newly installed zone blocking scheme was largely to blame, but the Ravens went away from that scheme against Pittsburgh last week and still only rushed for 82 yards. As soon as the blocking improved, the health of the Ravens running backs became an extremely apparent issue. Ray Rice is beginning to get over his hip flexor strain, but Bernard Pierce is out with a nagging hamstring injury that meant Vonta Leach had to carry the ball late in the game against the Steelers. The Raven appear to be interested in signing former Bengals running back Bernard Scott if Pierce's injury takes a long time to heal, and this would be a great time to do so since the Ravens have extra time to get him adjusted into the offense. If the Ravens can re-establish the running game then they can utilize something that the Ravens have gotten away from this season: deep play action passes.
It's possible that the lack of deep passes off of play action is simply the result of poor pass protection for Joe and a lack of good run blocking to effectively sell the play action fake, but I would wager that play-calling differences from last year to this year are also largely to blame. Jim Caldwell clearly doesn't have faith in the Ravens deep passing ability at the moment. That, however, doesn't mean he should abandon it the way he appears to have done thus far. The Ravens have literally never had this much speed in their wide receiving corps between Jacoby Jones, Torrey Smith, Deonte Thompson, and Marlon Brown. I get the sense that Caldwell simply wants to get Flacco into a rhythm with first downs early in games and so he looks to move the chains with short and intermediate passes. That strategy, however, hasn't worked. The ONE thing I liked about Cam Cameron's play calling was his tendency to have Joe go deep early and often in games. I would greatly prefer Flacco attempting a deep pass or two in early drives rather than attempting unsuccessfully to run the ball. The result, of course, could end up being the same with a 3 and out, but maybe Joe actually connects with one of his speedy wideouts downfield and that play opens up things for the running game. Joe's arm strength is what he was originally drafted for, and it's the offensive factor that ultimately wins games for the Ravens--it must be utilized.
Offense alone can't win games for the Ravens. I believed the Ravens defense had improved over the 2012 version, and in many ways it has improved greatly. The Ravens have allowed an extremely low number of touchdowns in all but one of their games. In fact, if you exclude the first game of the season, the Ravens have allowed only 4 touchdowns through 6 games. That's incredible. What has not been incredible, however, is that the Ravens defense has allowed far too much yardage and that has given the Ravens offense far fewer opportunities to score. The Ravens run defense was gashed by Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and even Green Bay. The Steelers had a poor running game up until last week, but that had a lot to do with the absence of their starting running back, Le'Veon Bell. The Ravens couldn't stop the Steelers on major clock-eating drives that ultimately ended in enough field goals to edge the Ravens. This Ravens defense simply doesn't possess the run-stuffing ability it did for well over a decade behind the leadership of Ray Lewis. Jameel McClain just returned to action, but most of the linebacker corps is totally new and never played under the guidance of Ray. The Ravens starting safeties also don't appear as good in run support as Bernard Pollard or as good in pass coverage as Ed Reed.
Thankfully, the Ravens defense still dominates in the redzone. If the offense can simply turn early field goals in for early touchdowns then opposing teams won't run the ball nearly as much, and the Ravens can unleash the full fury of their talented pass rushers. Flacco has found Dallas Clark for two late game touchdowns in the last two games, and hopefully their chemistry will continue to develop. That chemistry may not be as strong as the chemistry Joe shared with Dennis Pitta, but that's fine because Pitta is reportedly only 3-4 weeks away from a return to the field for the Ravens. The Ravens simply have to take the bye week to get healthy and ready for a three week span in which they face a broken and desperate Browns team in Cleveland, a strong but not elite Bengals team in Baltimore, and an extremely troubled Bears team in Chicago. If the Ravens can win those two road games against teams with key injuries and win home game against a good team, then they'll get Pitta back just in time for a three game homestand against the Jets, Steelers, and woeful Vikings. It's tough to be terrifically optimistic while the Ravens are 3-4, but 3 of their four losses have been by 3 points or less and it should only take a bye week for the Ravens to get healthy and make the minor adjustments that should turn field goals into touchdowns and narrow losses into comfortable victories.
THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
PANTHERS AT BUCCANEERS- Neither of these teams is exactly what one would call elite, but the Panthers are picking up steam with 3 wins in their last 4 games. The Panthers' defense is a top five unit with the fourth ranked run defense and the fifth ranked pass offense in the league. The Panthers also rank 7th in rushing offense. The only category in which the Panthers find themselves lacking is in passing yards per game wherein they rank 28th. That last statistic is what keeps them from being able to beat serious contenders, but the Panthers will manhandle just about mediocre or poor team...and that includes the Bucs. PANTHERS 33-13.
I know many fans are losing faith in the Ravens at this point. We've grown accustomed to a winning team in the last 5 years, and it's painful to see them lose games they easily could have won had they avoided minor coaching and execution mistakes. The Ravens simply shouldn't let a game be decided by a couple of coaching an execution errors as they should be putting up enough points so that an extra field goal or turnover simply wouldn't be enough to take them down. Hopefully we'll see the return of the Ravens running game and the Ravens deep passing game in week 9 against the Browns. If the Ravens can finally put together a legitimate offensive blow out win over a legitimate Browns defense then I'll be comfortable with them going forward. If not...well let's just hope they pull it off. DON'T LOSE FAITH BALTIMORE, THE RAVENS ARE GREAT AFTER BYE WEEKS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The first such trend is the number six. For some reason the Ravens have possessed only six points (or less) in the first half of most of the games they've played this season. Much of this can be attributed to early attempts to establish the running game that have, for a few different reasons, led to early and frequent three-and-outs for the offense. The Ravens newly installed zone blocking scheme was largely to blame, but the Ravens went away from that scheme against Pittsburgh last week and still only rushed for 82 yards. As soon as the blocking improved, the health of the Ravens running backs became an extremely apparent issue. Ray Rice is beginning to get over his hip flexor strain, but Bernard Pierce is out with a nagging hamstring injury that meant Vonta Leach had to carry the ball late in the game against the Steelers. The Raven appear to be interested in signing former Bengals running back Bernard Scott if Pierce's injury takes a long time to heal, and this would be a great time to do so since the Ravens have extra time to get him adjusted into the offense. If the Ravens can re-establish the running game then they can utilize something that the Ravens have gotten away from this season: deep play action passes.
It's possible that the lack of deep passes off of play action is simply the result of poor pass protection for Joe and a lack of good run blocking to effectively sell the play action fake, but I would wager that play-calling differences from last year to this year are also largely to blame. Jim Caldwell clearly doesn't have faith in the Ravens deep passing ability at the moment. That, however, doesn't mean he should abandon it the way he appears to have done thus far. The Ravens have literally never had this much speed in their wide receiving corps between Jacoby Jones, Torrey Smith, Deonte Thompson, and Marlon Brown. I get the sense that Caldwell simply wants to get Flacco into a rhythm with first downs early in games and so he looks to move the chains with short and intermediate passes. That strategy, however, hasn't worked. The ONE thing I liked about Cam Cameron's play calling was his tendency to have Joe go deep early and often in games. I would greatly prefer Flacco attempting a deep pass or two in early drives rather than attempting unsuccessfully to run the ball. The result, of course, could end up being the same with a 3 and out, but maybe Joe actually connects with one of his speedy wideouts downfield and that play opens up things for the running game. Joe's arm strength is what he was originally drafted for, and it's the offensive factor that ultimately wins games for the Ravens--it must be utilized.
Offense alone can't win games for the Ravens. I believed the Ravens defense had improved over the 2012 version, and in many ways it has improved greatly. The Ravens have allowed an extremely low number of touchdowns in all but one of their games. In fact, if you exclude the first game of the season, the Ravens have allowed only 4 touchdowns through 6 games. That's incredible. What has not been incredible, however, is that the Ravens defense has allowed far too much yardage and that has given the Ravens offense far fewer opportunities to score. The Ravens run defense was gashed by Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and even Green Bay. The Steelers had a poor running game up until last week, but that had a lot to do with the absence of their starting running back, Le'Veon Bell. The Ravens couldn't stop the Steelers on major clock-eating drives that ultimately ended in enough field goals to edge the Ravens. This Ravens defense simply doesn't possess the run-stuffing ability it did for well over a decade behind the leadership of Ray Lewis. Jameel McClain just returned to action, but most of the linebacker corps is totally new and never played under the guidance of Ray. The Ravens starting safeties also don't appear as good in run support as Bernard Pollard or as good in pass coverage as Ed Reed.
Thankfully, the Ravens defense still dominates in the redzone. If the offense can simply turn early field goals in for early touchdowns then opposing teams won't run the ball nearly as much, and the Ravens can unleash the full fury of their talented pass rushers. Flacco has found Dallas Clark for two late game touchdowns in the last two games, and hopefully their chemistry will continue to develop. That chemistry may not be as strong as the chemistry Joe shared with Dennis Pitta, but that's fine because Pitta is reportedly only 3-4 weeks away from a return to the field for the Ravens. The Ravens simply have to take the bye week to get healthy and ready for a three week span in which they face a broken and desperate Browns team in Cleveland, a strong but not elite Bengals team in Baltimore, and an extremely troubled Bears team in Chicago. If the Ravens can win those two road games against teams with key injuries and win home game against a good team, then they'll get Pitta back just in time for a three game homestand against the Jets, Steelers, and woeful Vikings. It's tough to be terrifically optimistic while the Ravens are 3-4, but 3 of their four losses have been by 3 points or less and it should only take a bye week for the Ravens to get healthy and make the minor adjustments that should turn field goals into touchdowns and narrow losses into comfortable victories.
THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
PANTHERS AT BUCCANEERS- Neither of these teams is exactly what one would call elite, but the Panthers are picking up steam with 3 wins in their last 4 games. The Panthers' defense is a top five unit with the fourth ranked run defense and the fifth ranked pass offense in the league. The Panthers also rank 7th in rushing offense. The only category in which the Panthers find themselves lacking is in passing yards per game wherein they rank 28th. That last statistic is what keeps them from being able to beat serious contenders, but the Panthers will manhandle just about mediocre or poor team...and that includes the Bucs. PANTHERS 33-13.
I know many fans are losing faith in the Ravens at this point. We've grown accustomed to a winning team in the last 5 years, and it's painful to see them lose games they easily could have won had they avoided minor coaching and execution mistakes. The Ravens simply shouldn't let a game be decided by a couple of coaching an execution errors as they should be putting up enough points so that an extra field goal or turnover simply wouldn't be enough to take them down. Hopefully we'll see the return of the Ravens running game and the Ravens deep passing game in week 9 against the Browns. If the Ravens can finally put together a legitimate offensive blow out win over a legitimate Browns defense then I'll be comfortable with them going forward. If not...well let's just hope they pull it off. DON'T LOSE FAITH BALTIMORE, THE RAVENS ARE GREAT AFTER BYE WEEKS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Friday, October 18, 2013
WEEK 7 NFL PREDICTIONS
Week 7 features some great divisional rivalries, especially in the AFC. The Dolphins travel to Buffalo to face the Bills, the Cowboys travel to Philly to play the Eagles, and the Buccaneers travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons, but two much bigger rivalries will undoubtedly garner far more attention. The Patriots and Jets have surprised fans with a strong amount of success despite major losses in personnel. The Patriots lost Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and now Vince Wilfork, but they also haven't yet seen the return of Rob Gronkowski. Lo and behold, the Patriots are 5-1 and stand atop to AFC East. The Jets lost their best defensive weapon, Darrell Revis, and their starting quarterback of the last 5 years, but somehow have found a way to stay in the playoff hunt at 3-3. The Jets will have homefield advantage, but they'll also have one less Patriots star to deal with as the Pats just lost their leading tackler, Jerod Mayo.
A bit further west of the Patriots-Jets game will be the Ravens-Steelers matchup in Pittsburgh on Sunday evening. These two teams have had a fierce and fairly evenly matched rivalry through the years. These two teams may not be the powerhouses they once were only one or two years prior, but that doesn't mean that Sunday's game won't feature intense physicality and bone-crushing hits. The Steelers still have a number of strong defensive stars and their secondary is ranked 4th in the NFL in passing yards allowed. The Ravens, on the other hand, actually once again have a revamped defense with an incredible pass rush on pace to be the best in Ravens history. This Ravens defense, in fact, could end up being one of the best in recent memory if the Ravens offensive players can pick up the pace and keep their defensive counterparts off the field.
The Ravens and Steelers defenses are still strong...so why are these teams a combined 4-7? The answer, of course, is offensive lines. The Ravens have talented, pro bowl-caliber offensive linemen, but they've been crippled by a new blocking scheme that simply doesn't work for the Ravens offense. The Steelers offensive line has also struggled, but for an entirely different reason. The Steelers have lacked a serious offensive line for a long time, but found a way to produce through the air and on the ground with a talented, surprisingly mobile quarterback and strong running backs. The Steelers offensive line is particularly this this season and so is the Steelers stable of running backs.
Whatever the reason, the Ravens and Steelers simply haven't been able to run the ball well. The Ravens offensive problems are far more easily correctable than those of the Steelers, but somehow it has been 6 weeks and the Ravens have failed to correct them. I would say that the Ravens have some sort of edge in this game, but the Steelers just finished dominating the Jets on the road last week and it might be that they've simply finally found a winning game plan. The bottom line is that personnel seldom seems to matter in divisional rivalries. The Steelers beat the Ravens in Baltimore last year without Ben Roethlisberger, and the Ravens dominated the Steelers in 2011 despite the Steelers' strong healthy staff. This, as always, should be a violent battle that people all over the U.S. tune in to watch.
WEEK 7 NFL PREDICTIONS
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- I told myself I'd stop picking the Falcons after they lost to the Jets, but the Bucs are totally winless and have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Their pass offense is, in fact, the worst in the NFL. No Julio Jones for the Falcons, but they still have enough firepower to beat a team that can't beat ANYONE. FALCONS 30-17.
BENGALS AT LIONS- This is an interesting matchup between two teams that don't share a division or even a conference, but have managed to play a few of the same opponents in 6 weeks. The weird thing is that the Lions of beaten some of the opponents the Bengals lost to and the the Bengals have beaten some of the opponents to which the Lions have lost. As far as yardage produced and allowed is concerned, the Bengals appear to be a more balanced team. The Bengals defense has also allowed 19 points less than the Lions D. The Lions offense, however, has produced 41 more points than that of the Bengals. The Lions' pass rush and a strong Detroit crowd should give Andy Dalton problems. Reggie Bush and Megatron should have decent production against a Bengals defense that has, at times, looked confused against some less than impressive teams such as the Browns and Bears. Going with the home team on this one. LIONS 27-24.
BILLS AT DOLPHINS- Despite last weeks loss to the Bengals, the Bills still impressed me. They can go toe to toe with top teams without question. The Dolphins, however, are coming off of a bye week and they're certainly no pushover. The Dolphins are, in fact, in 2nd place in the AFC East behind the Patriots at 3-2. I won't read to far into statistics with this prediction. Matt Flynn is starting for the Bills and that means they'll almost certainly lose. I'm picking the home team with the better record coming off of a bye in this divisional matchup. DOLPHINS 28-20.
PATRIOTS AT JETS- The last time the Patriots faced the Jets, they played in New England and barely beat Gang Green 13-10. This time the game will be in New Jersey and the Patriots will be missing their best defensive lineman, best linebackers, and best defensive back as Talib will also not play. The Jets will certainly have an easier time moving the ball on the Patriots, but one enormous factor may yet keep the Patriots in this game. Rob Gronkowski has finally been cleared by all doctors to play this weekend. When healthy this tight end is one of the most dominant receiving threats the NFL has ever seen. Gronk has reportedly been "dominant" in practice and should take the Patriots to the next level this weekend. I simply can't bet against the Patriots with a healthy Gronkowski as much as I want an upset here. PATRIOTS 30-24.
COWBOYS AT EAGLES- The Eagles are 31st in the league in pass defense. That's a pity because the Cowboys are a solid passing team that can be downright explosive against poor pass defenses such a that of the Broncos. The Eagles run the ball well and you never can tell what'll happen in a divisional matchup, but I simply can't see a Nick Foles-led Eagles beating the Cowboys right now. COWBOYS 38-31.
BEARS AT REDSKINS- The Bears have made a habit of narrowly beating mediocre and bad teams this season. At 4-2 one would assume they should beat the Redskins. The Bears lost by a touchdown to the high-flying Saints two weeks ago and then only barely managed to beat the winless Giants by the same margin. The Redskins, nevertheless, have not shown the ability to put up big points against other teams with lackluster pass defenses and seriously compete in a shootout. The Redskins defense is near the bottom of the league in both passing and rushing yards allowed. The Redskins offense ranks 10th in both passing and rushing yards produced, but that hasn't translated into a great number of points as the Redskins have allowed 36 more points than they've scored on the season. The Bears don't impress me that much, but the Redskins simply impress me even less. I'll be rooting for an upset here, but I won't be betting on it. BEARS 33-20.
RAMS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers have a bad record at 2-3, but they've been very impressive at home as they took apart the Giants 38-0 and only narrowly lost to a dominant Seahawks team 12-7. The Rams are 3-3, but two of their wins came against two of the very worst teams in the league, the Texans and Jaguars. The Panthers defense should keep the Rams off the field, and their rushing attack should be able to control the clock and win the field position battle. PANTHERS 17-10.
CHARGERS AT JAGUARS- No explanation is needed here. CHARGERS 38-14.
49ERS AT TITANS- Last year this pick would have been a no-brainer. This season, however, the 49ers find themselves without Michael Crabtree and Aldon Smith. The 49ers have been great against mediocre teams, but the Titans will likely be without Jake Locker, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of winning football games too. The problem for the 49ers is that they have one of the worst pass offenses in the league and the Titans have a top 10 ranked pass defense. Boldin has not fared well against the Titans in recent memory, and if the Titans are able to make the 49ers one-dimensional, then I don't see anyway Kaepernick and company walk out with a win. The Titans gave both the Seahawks and Chiefs a solid run for their money and those teams are on a totally different level than the 49ers. Don't let the records fool you. TITANS 24-21.
BROWNS AT PACKERS- This won't be an EASY game by any stretch of the imagination as the Packers are down two receivers and the Browns have a good defense. The Packers, however, will not lose this game at home. PACKERS 28-17.
TEXANS AT CHIEFS- The Texans are among the three worst teams in the league right now. The Chiefs are unbeaten and will be playing at home in the loudest environment in the NFL. CHIEFS 23-9.
RAVENS AT STEELERS- It doesn't surprise me that many members of the media have picked the Steelers to win this game...that doesn't mean I think they're on to something, it just doesn't surprise me. Roethlisberger will be terrorized by the best pass rush in Ravens history and the Ravens will get back to offensive business by reverting to their old blocking schemes this week. The Steelers usually have a way of making this a good game, but I simply don't think they have the offensive personnel to score much on an extremely effective Ravens defense. This game should see the return of the real Ray Rice. RAVENS 24-17.
BRONCOS AT COLTS- I would love to see the Colts be the team to finally take down the Broncos, but the Broncos will get Von Miller back this week and that should provide their bottom-ranked pass defense with enough of a boost to ensure another victory for Peyton Manning. I really--REALLY hope I'm wrong about this. BRONCOS 42-31.
VIKINGS AT GIANTS- The Giants will get their first win this week. They could have won last week, but they were playing a tougher opponent. The Vikings are even weaker than the Giants at this point and the return of Brandon Jacobs should secure a loss for the Vikings. This makes me extremely sad to say, of course, because my heart broke when I heard about Adrian Peterson's little boy, but there's no way a Josh Freeman-led team is going to be beat even the winless G-men. GIANTS 28-19.
This weekend all eyes will be on the Patriots-Jets, Broncos-Colts, and Ravens-Steelers matchups. These games won't likely won't prove pivotal in the overall outcome of this season, but they will tell us much about some teams with rather pressing questions about their current strengths. Will the Ravens offensive line finally be able to break open running lanes for Ray Rice and company and protect Flacco? Will the Rob Gronkowski prove enough of an offensive factor to overcome numerous major defensive personnel losses for the Patriots? Will Von Miller be enough to revamp the Broncos pass defense, and will the Colts pass offense be enough to finally take down Peyton Manning in his old home field? Oh, and in case I haven't mentioned it enough already, IT'S RAVENS-STEELERS WEEK!!!! IT'S ALSO PURPLE FRIDAY, SO PUT YOUR JERSEY ON AND REP YOUR CITY, BALTIMORE!!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
A bit further west of the Patriots-Jets game will be the Ravens-Steelers matchup in Pittsburgh on Sunday evening. These two teams have had a fierce and fairly evenly matched rivalry through the years. These two teams may not be the powerhouses they once were only one or two years prior, but that doesn't mean that Sunday's game won't feature intense physicality and bone-crushing hits. The Steelers still have a number of strong defensive stars and their secondary is ranked 4th in the NFL in passing yards allowed. The Ravens, on the other hand, actually once again have a revamped defense with an incredible pass rush on pace to be the best in Ravens history. This Ravens defense, in fact, could end up being one of the best in recent memory if the Ravens offensive players can pick up the pace and keep their defensive counterparts off the field.
The Ravens and Steelers defenses are still strong...so why are these teams a combined 4-7? The answer, of course, is offensive lines. The Ravens have talented, pro bowl-caliber offensive linemen, but they've been crippled by a new blocking scheme that simply doesn't work for the Ravens offense. The Steelers offensive line has also struggled, but for an entirely different reason. The Steelers have lacked a serious offensive line for a long time, but found a way to produce through the air and on the ground with a talented, surprisingly mobile quarterback and strong running backs. The Steelers offensive line is particularly this this season and so is the Steelers stable of running backs.
Whatever the reason, the Ravens and Steelers simply haven't been able to run the ball well. The Ravens offensive problems are far more easily correctable than those of the Steelers, but somehow it has been 6 weeks and the Ravens have failed to correct them. I would say that the Ravens have some sort of edge in this game, but the Steelers just finished dominating the Jets on the road last week and it might be that they've simply finally found a winning game plan. The bottom line is that personnel seldom seems to matter in divisional rivalries. The Steelers beat the Ravens in Baltimore last year without Ben Roethlisberger, and the Ravens dominated the Steelers in 2011 despite the Steelers' strong healthy staff. This, as always, should be a violent battle that people all over the U.S. tune in to watch.
WEEK 7 NFL PREDICTIONS
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- I told myself I'd stop picking the Falcons after they lost to the Jets, but the Bucs are totally winless and have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Their pass offense is, in fact, the worst in the NFL. No Julio Jones for the Falcons, but they still have enough firepower to beat a team that can't beat ANYONE. FALCONS 30-17.
BENGALS AT LIONS- This is an interesting matchup between two teams that don't share a division or even a conference, but have managed to play a few of the same opponents in 6 weeks. The weird thing is that the Lions of beaten some of the opponents the Bengals lost to and the the Bengals have beaten some of the opponents to which the Lions have lost. As far as yardage produced and allowed is concerned, the Bengals appear to be a more balanced team. The Bengals defense has also allowed 19 points less than the Lions D. The Lions offense, however, has produced 41 more points than that of the Bengals. The Lions' pass rush and a strong Detroit crowd should give Andy Dalton problems. Reggie Bush and Megatron should have decent production against a Bengals defense that has, at times, looked confused against some less than impressive teams such as the Browns and Bears. Going with the home team on this one. LIONS 27-24.
BILLS AT DOLPHINS- Despite last weeks loss to the Bengals, the Bills still impressed me. They can go toe to toe with top teams without question. The Dolphins, however, are coming off of a bye week and they're certainly no pushover. The Dolphins are, in fact, in 2nd place in the AFC East behind the Patriots at 3-2. I won't read to far into statistics with this prediction. Matt Flynn is starting for the Bills and that means they'll almost certainly lose. I'm picking the home team with the better record coming off of a bye in this divisional matchup. DOLPHINS 28-20.
PATRIOTS AT JETS- The last time the Patriots faced the Jets, they played in New England and barely beat Gang Green 13-10. This time the game will be in New Jersey and the Patriots will be missing their best defensive lineman, best linebackers, and best defensive back as Talib will also not play. The Jets will certainly have an easier time moving the ball on the Patriots, but one enormous factor may yet keep the Patriots in this game. Rob Gronkowski has finally been cleared by all doctors to play this weekend. When healthy this tight end is one of the most dominant receiving threats the NFL has ever seen. Gronk has reportedly been "dominant" in practice and should take the Patriots to the next level this weekend. I simply can't bet against the Patriots with a healthy Gronkowski as much as I want an upset here. PATRIOTS 30-24.
COWBOYS AT EAGLES- The Eagles are 31st in the league in pass defense. That's a pity because the Cowboys are a solid passing team that can be downright explosive against poor pass defenses such a that of the Broncos. The Eagles run the ball well and you never can tell what'll happen in a divisional matchup, but I simply can't see a Nick Foles-led Eagles beating the Cowboys right now. COWBOYS 38-31.
BEARS AT REDSKINS- The Bears have made a habit of narrowly beating mediocre and bad teams this season. At 4-2 one would assume they should beat the Redskins. The Bears lost by a touchdown to the high-flying Saints two weeks ago and then only barely managed to beat the winless Giants by the same margin. The Redskins, nevertheless, have not shown the ability to put up big points against other teams with lackluster pass defenses and seriously compete in a shootout. The Redskins defense is near the bottom of the league in both passing and rushing yards allowed. The Redskins offense ranks 10th in both passing and rushing yards produced, but that hasn't translated into a great number of points as the Redskins have allowed 36 more points than they've scored on the season. The Bears don't impress me that much, but the Redskins simply impress me even less. I'll be rooting for an upset here, but I won't be betting on it. BEARS 33-20.
RAMS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers have a bad record at 2-3, but they've been very impressive at home as they took apart the Giants 38-0 and only narrowly lost to a dominant Seahawks team 12-7. The Rams are 3-3, but two of their wins came against two of the very worst teams in the league, the Texans and Jaguars. The Panthers defense should keep the Rams off the field, and their rushing attack should be able to control the clock and win the field position battle. PANTHERS 17-10.
CHARGERS AT JAGUARS- No explanation is needed here. CHARGERS 38-14.
49ERS AT TITANS- Last year this pick would have been a no-brainer. This season, however, the 49ers find themselves without Michael Crabtree and Aldon Smith. The 49ers have been great against mediocre teams, but the Titans will likely be without Jake Locker, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of winning football games too. The problem for the 49ers is that they have one of the worst pass offenses in the league and the Titans have a top 10 ranked pass defense. Boldin has not fared well against the Titans in recent memory, and if the Titans are able to make the 49ers one-dimensional, then I don't see anyway Kaepernick and company walk out with a win. The Titans gave both the Seahawks and Chiefs a solid run for their money and those teams are on a totally different level than the 49ers. Don't let the records fool you. TITANS 24-21.
BROWNS AT PACKERS- This won't be an EASY game by any stretch of the imagination as the Packers are down two receivers and the Browns have a good defense. The Packers, however, will not lose this game at home. PACKERS 28-17.
TEXANS AT CHIEFS- The Texans are among the three worst teams in the league right now. The Chiefs are unbeaten and will be playing at home in the loudest environment in the NFL. CHIEFS 23-9.
RAVENS AT STEELERS- It doesn't surprise me that many members of the media have picked the Steelers to win this game...that doesn't mean I think they're on to something, it just doesn't surprise me. Roethlisberger will be terrorized by the best pass rush in Ravens history and the Ravens will get back to offensive business by reverting to their old blocking schemes this week. The Steelers usually have a way of making this a good game, but I simply don't think they have the offensive personnel to score much on an extremely effective Ravens defense. This game should see the return of the real Ray Rice. RAVENS 24-17.
BRONCOS AT COLTS- I would love to see the Colts be the team to finally take down the Broncos, but the Broncos will get Von Miller back this week and that should provide their bottom-ranked pass defense with enough of a boost to ensure another victory for Peyton Manning. I really--REALLY hope I'm wrong about this. BRONCOS 42-31.
VIKINGS AT GIANTS- The Giants will get their first win this week. They could have won last week, but they were playing a tougher opponent. The Vikings are even weaker than the Giants at this point and the return of Brandon Jacobs should secure a loss for the Vikings. This makes me extremely sad to say, of course, because my heart broke when I heard about Adrian Peterson's little boy, but there's no way a Josh Freeman-led team is going to be beat even the winless G-men. GIANTS 28-19.
This weekend all eyes will be on the Patriots-Jets, Broncos-Colts, and Ravens-Steelers matchups. These games won't likely won't prove pivotal in the overall outcome of this season, but they will tell us much about some teams with rather pressing questions about their current strengths. Will the Ravens offensive line finally be able to break open running lanes for Ray Rice and company and protect Flacco? Will the Rob Gronkowski prove enough of an offensive factor to overcome numerous major defensive personnel losses for the Patriots? Will Von Miller be enough to revamp the Broncos pass defense, and will the Colts pass offense be enough to finally take down Peyton Manning in his old home field? Oh, and in case I haven't mentioned it enough already, IT'S RAVENS-STEELERS WEEK!!!! IT'S ALSO PURPLE FRIDAY, SO PUT YOUR JERSEY ON AND REP YOUR CITY, BALTIMORE!!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
WEEK 6 RAVENS REACTION AND THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
I usually begin my weekly NFL reactions with a recap of the most interesting games around the league. This week, however, I must address the state of the Ravens after their home loss to the Green Bay Packers. I was worried after the Ravens beat the Miami Dolphins because they did so only because two of the Dolphins best defensive players exited the game with injuries. Probably the most important of these two players was former Raven Dannell Ellerbe. Before Ellerbe left the game, the Ravens struggled woefully to run the football. Aften Ellerbe left the game, the Ravens ran the football relatively well and finished with over 130 yards rushing. These numbers may have given the Ravens hope that Juan Castillo's new blocking schemes were finally working. It became clear, however, that the Ravens had fixed almost nothing in this department as they totaled a mere 47 yards on the ground the next week at home against a Green Bay Packers team that lacked its greatest defensive weapon, Clay Matthews.
The Ravens could have easily beaten a mediocre Packers team had they simply kicked a field goal on 4th and 1 from the goal line and elected to kneel the ball with 20 seconds left in the first half. That 6 point swing would have ultimately likely put the game out of reach for the Packers, and the Ravens would have been deluded once more into believing that their offense is making progress. The narrow 19-17 loss has, instead, forced the Ravens to re-evaluate their horrendous zone blocking schemes recently installed by Juan Castillo.
Though no one in the organization outright detailed what is going to change, John Harbaugh made comments to the press that alluded to fact that major changes are coming in order to get the running game back on track. In the long run, this could actually be the best thing to happen to the Ravens this season as the running game is the only glaring weakness on this Ravens team. Flacco has had too many interceptions thus far, but he had no picks against the Packers and that was most likely due to increased chemistry with new receivers and a return to the field for Jacoby Jones. Flacco had, in fact, 342 passing yards and 2 touchdowns last weekend; the Ravens should win most games where he puts up that kind of stat line considering the strength of the defense.
All of Flacco's first half passing yardage, however, came in vain as it produced zero points. The Ravens elected to run the ball 4 times in a row on first and goal from the 5 yard line and simply couldn't out-muscle the Packers defensive line. It didn't matter which running back the Ravens used, and it certainly didn't matter that the Ravens had the best fullback in the NFL leading the way because the offensive line simply didn't create enough room for Ray Rice or Bernard Pierce to get 5 yards in 4 plays.
The Ravens have never been this bad at running the football, and it has nothing to do with on-the-field personnel. I've said it before, and now everyone appears to be talking about it. The Ravens offensive woes are due to Juan Castillo's changes in blocking schemes--and I can prove it. The Ravens actually sbandoned Castillo's blocking schemes and reverted back to last year's schemes in the second half against the Packers and suddenly they began to move the ball. Both Rice and Pierce produced some fairly long runs on draw plays and Flacco unleashed a late fury through the air. Unfortunately, the Ravens defense had been out on the field so much in the first half that they were visibly exhausted by the time the Ravens needed them to force quick 3-and-outs in the 4th quarter. The Packers used their powerful young running back, Eddie Lacy, to grind out a drive that ate up nearly 8 minutes and sunk almost any hope of a Ravens comeback.
The silver lining to this heartbreaking loss is that the Ravens have now had serious reason to not only evaluate their major weaknesses but to make sweeping changes in order to correct them. This wouldn't be the first time something of this nature happened. One has only to look at last season when the Ravens went on a three game losing streak which forced them to do that which fans had begged them to do for years: fire Cam Cameron. I'm not assuming that they'll necessarily fire Juan Castillo immediately, but they certainly won't let him have the reigns when it comes to the offensive line anymore. He was brought in to be the "run game coordinator" and he has failed miserably. If the Ravens had pulled off narrow victories against the Bills and Packers, the Ravens would be 5-1 right now and Castillo would not likely be in the hot seat despite a lack of production on the ground.
The bottom line is that sometimes teams learn far more from losses than wins, and the Ravens clearly have the personnel to run the ball, pass the ball, stop the run, stop the pass, and play special teams. Ironically, this is arguably the most complete Ravens team I've seen in years from a player personnel standpoint, but like last season, one coach is clearly holding them back in a big way. The Ravens have 3 consecutive games against divisional opponents coming up. If the coaching staff makes the correct adjustments, there's no reason the Ravens shouldn't go 3-0 in those games and retake the divisional lead with a 6-3 record. This weekend, however, will be quite telling. If the Ravens can come out and totally dominate the worst Steelers team in decades, then I'll be optimistic about their chances of winning the division and gaining a 6th consecutive playoff berth. If, however, the Ravens are only barely able to edge the Steelers or they somehow lose, I think it's safe to assume our favorite team is in real trouble. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS- The Seahawks aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home...this is nothing new. The Cardinals, however, are simply not strong enough offensively or defensively to stop the Hawks. The Cardinals have the 5th ranked run defense and will likely do a decent job of bottling up Marshawn Lynch at times, but I doubt they'll be able to keep Beastmode out of the endone entirely. The Seahawks defense will get the ball back to the their offense enough times that the Seahawks will ultimately win a battle of field position. This won't be a big win, but the Cardinals simply don't have the offensive firepower to pull the kind of upset win that the Colts did two weeks ago. SEAHAWKS 20-17.
I will be publishing my Sunday and Monday predictions on Friday so stay turned and stay positive about the Ravens. I have faith that the Ravens organization will make immediate corrections to a relatively simple problem to fix. Keep the faith, Baltimore.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Ravens could have easily beaten a mediocre Packers team had they simply kicked a field goal on 4th and 1 from the goal line and elected to kneel the ball with 20 seconds left in the first half. That 6 point swing would have ultimately likely put the game out of reach for the Packers, and the Ravens would have been deluded once more into believing that their offense is making progress. The narrow 19-17 loss has, instead, forced the Ravens to re-evaluate their horrendous zone blocking schemes recently installed by Juan Castillo.
Though no one in the organization outright detailed what is going to change, John Harbaugh made comments to the press that alluded to fact that major changes are coming in order to get the running game back on track. In the long run, this could actually be the best thing to happen to the Ravens this season as the running game is the only glaring weakness on this Ravens team. Flacco has had too many interceptions thus far, but he had no picks against the Packers and that was most likely due to increased chemistry with new receivers and a return to the field for Jacoby Jones. Flacco had, in fact, 342 passing yards and 2 touchdowns last weekend; the Ravens should win most games where he puts up that kind of stat line considering the strength of the defense.
All of Flacco's first half passing yardage, however, came in vain as it produced zero points. The Ravens elected to run the ball 4 times in a row on first and goal from the 5 yard line and simply couldn't out-muscle the Packers defensive line. It didn't matter which running back the Ravens used, and it certainly didn't matter that the Ravens had the best fullback in the NFL leading the way because the offensive line simply didn't create enough room for Ray Rice or Bernard Pierce to get 5 yards in 4 plays.
The Ravens have never been this bad at running the football, and it has nothing to do with on-the-field personnel. I've said it before, and now everyone appears to be talking about it. The Ravens offensive woes are due to Juan Castillo's changes in blocking schemes--and I can prove it. The Ravens actually sbandoned Castillo's blocking schemes and reverted back to last year's schemes in the second half against the Packers and suddenly they began to move the ball. Both Rice and Pierce produced some fairly long runs on draw plays and Flacco unleashed a late fury through the air. Unfortunately, the Ravens defense had been out on the field so much in the first half that they were visibly exhausted by the time the Ravens needed them to force quick 3-and-outs in the 4th quarter. The Packers used their powerful young running back, Eddie Lacy, to grind out a drive that ate up nearly 8 minutes and sunk almost any hope of a Ravens comeback.
The silver lining to this heartbreaking loss is that the Ravens have now had serious reason to not only evaluate their major weaknesses but to make sweeping changes in order to correct them. This wouldn't be the first time something of this nature happened. One has only to look at last season when the Ravens went on a three game losing streak which forced them to do that which fans had begged them to do for years: fire Cam Cameron. I'm not assuming that they'll necessarily fire Juan Castillo immediately, but they certainly won't let him have the reigns when it comes to the offensive line anymore. He was brought in to be the "run game coordinator" and he has failed miserably. If the Ravens had pulled off narrow victories against the Bills and Packers, the Ravens would be 5-1 right now and Castillo would not likely be in the hot seat despite a lack of production on the ground.
The bottom line is that sometimes teams learn far more from losses than wins, and the Ravens clearly have the personnel to run the ball, pass the ball, stop the run, stop the pass, and play special teams. Ironically, this is arguably the most complete Ravens team I've seen in years from a player personnel standpoint, but like last season, one coach is clearly holding them back in a big way. The Ravens have 3 consecutive games against divisional opponents coming up. If the coaching staff makes the correct adjustments, there's no reason the Ravens shouldn't go 3-0 in those games and retake the divisional lead with a 6-3 record. This weekend, however, will be quite telling. If the Ravens can come out and totally dominate the worst Steelers team in decades, then I'll be optimistic about their chances of winning the division and gaining a 6th consecutive playoff berth. If, however, the Ravens are only barely able to edge the Steelers or they somehow lose, I think it's safe to assume our favorite team is in real trouble. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS- The Seahawks aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home...this is nothing new. The Cardinals, however, are simply not strong enough offensively or defensively to stop the Hawks. The Cardinals have the 5th ranked run defense and will likely do a decent job of bottling up Marshawn Lynch at times, but I doubt they'll be able to keep Beastmode out of the endone entirely. The Seahawks defense will get the ball back to the their offense enough times that the Seahawks will ultimately win a battle of field position. This won't be a big win, but the Cardinals simply don't have the offensive firepower to pull the kind of upset win that the Colts did two weeks ago. SEAHAWKS 20-17.
I will be publishing my Sunday and Monday predictions on Friday so stay turned and stay positive about the Ravens. I have faith that the Ravens organization will make immediate corrections to a relatively simple problem to fix. Keep the faith, Baltimore.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, October 13, 2013
WEEK 6 NFL PICKS
These are about as last minute as any picks I've ever posted, but here goes!
BENGALS AT BILLS- The Bengals should win this game with the Bills starting quarterback still out, but don't expect it to be a total blowout. BENGALS 24-21.
LIONS AT BROWNS- Without Hoyer, I simply can't see the Browns winning much. Calvin Johnson is back, and that means Lions aerial fireworks. LIONS 33-17.
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- I like the Raiders with Terrell Pryor at the helm, but the Chiefs defense is simply too strong at home to lose this game. I expect something close though. CHIEFS 20-14.
PANTHERS AT VIKINGS- Sadly, this should be an inspired Vikings team. I can't fathom the deep sadness in the heart of Adrian Peterson, but I'm sure he and his team are ready to win one for his little boy. R.I.P, little guy. VIKINGS 28-23.
STEELERS AT JETS- I didn't believe in the Jets early, but they've beaten much better teams than the winless Steelers. I'm looking for the Jets to run the ball right down the throat of the Steeler defense, control the clock, and put this one away safely. JETS 23-10.
EAGLES AT BUCCANEERS- The Eagles aren't great this season and they will be without Michael Vick, but Nick Foles has enough starting experience to beat the Bucs. EAGLES 21-16.
PACKERS AT RAVENS- Joe Flacco is 10-0 at home against NFC teams. The Ravens will also have a good number of receiving weapons back and a new, strong left tackle. The Packers will be without a number of integral defensive cogs including Clay Matthews. The Ravens defense has not allowed a touchdown at home this season--they will today, but they'll also score a lot on an injured Packers pass defense. Expect a shootout. RAVENS 33-28.
RAMS AT TEXANS- The Texans should finally bounce back in this game against a mediocre opponent. TEXANS 30-24.
JAGS AT BRONCOS- Yeaaaaahhh...I guess it's a question of just how hard to the Broncos wanna push this before finally just having Peyton Manning hand the ball off and run the clock down ad nauseum. I expect Manning to be able to throw at least 5 TDs before the 4th quarter. BRONCOS 42-6.
TITANS AT SEAHAWKS- Always pick the Seahawks at home. SEAHAWKS 27-10.
CARDINALS AT 49ERS- This should be a 49ers win, but I have a hard time thinking that it'll be a blowout. Both of these teams are 3-2 and the 49ers haven't been as strong at home this season. 49ERS 23-20.
SAINTS AT PATRIOTS- As soon as the Patriots get Gronk back I will start picking them again. Until then, however, I can't see the Patriots defense, even at home, slowing down the Saints offense. When Gronk gets back, this will totally change, but until then Jimmy Graham is the best tight end in the league. SAINTS 37-28.
REDSKINS AT COWBOYS- Divisional games are always tough to predict, but the Cowboys are the only NFC East team that has truly shown impressive flashes at this point. The Redskins secondary isn't strong enough to contain the Cowboys offense. COWBOYS 35-21.
COLTS AT CHARGERS- The Colts are finally a good road team. Get 'em, Andrew. COLTS 26-19.
I, again, apologize for just how late these picks are being posted, but thanks for reading!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
BENGALS AT BILLS- The Bengals should win this game with the Bills starting quarterback still out, but don't expect it to be a total blowout. BENGALS 24-21.
LIONS AT BROWNS- Without Hoyer, I simply can't see the Browns winning much. Calvin Johnson is back, and that means Lions aerial fireworks. LIONS 33-17.
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- I like the Raiders with Terrell Pryor at the helm, but the Chiefs defense is simply too strong at home to lose this game. I expect something close though. CHIEFS 20-14.
PANTHERS AT VIKINGS- Sadly, this should be an inspired Vikings team. I can't fathom the deep sadness in the heart of Adrian Peterson, but I'm sure he and his team are ready to win one for his little boy. R.I.P, little guy. VIKINGS 28-23.
STEELERS AT JETS- I didn't believe in the Jets early, but they've beaten much better teams than the winless Steelers. I'm looking for the Jets to run the ball right down the throat of the Steeler defense, control the clock, and put this one away safely. JETS 23-10.
EAGLES AT BUCCANEERS- The Eagles aren't great this season and they will be without Michael Vick, but Nick Foles has enough starting experience to beat the Bucs. EAGLES 21-16.
PACKERS AT RAVENS- Joe Flacco is 10-0 at home against NFC teams. The Ravens will also have a good number of receiving weapons back and a new, strong left tackle. The Packers will be without a number of integral defensive cogs including Clay Matthews. The Ravens defense has not allowed a touchdown at home this season--they will today, but they'll also score a lot on an injured Packers pass defense. Expect a shootout. RAVENS 33-28.
RAMS AT TEXANS- The Texans should finally bounce back in this game against a mediocre opponent. TEXANS 30-24.
JAGS AT BRONCOS- Yeaaaaahhh...I guess it's a question of just how hard to the Broncos wanna push this before finally just having Peyton Manning hand the ball off and run the clock down ad nauseum. I expect Manning to be able to throw at least 5 TDs before the 4th quarter. BRONCOS 42-6.
TITANS AT SEAHAWKS- Always pick the Seahawks at home. SEAHAWKS 27-10.
CARDINALS AT 49ERS- This should be a 49ers win, but I have a hard time thinking that it'll be a blowout. Both of these teams are 3-2 and the 49ers haven't been as strong at home this season. 49ERS 23-20.
SAINTS AT PATRIOTS- As soon as the Patriots get Gronk back I will start picking them again. Until then, however, I can't see the Patriots defense, even at home, slowing down the Saints offense. When Gronk gets back, this will totally change, but until then Jimmy Graham is the best tight end in the league. SAINTS 37-28.
REDSKINS AT COWBOYS- Divisional games are always tough to predict, but the Cowboys are the only NFC East team that has truly shown impressive flashes at this point. The Redskins secondary isn't strong enough to contain the Cowboys offense. COWBOYS 35-21.
COLTS AT CHARGERS- The Colts are finally a good road team. Get 'em, Andrew. COLTS 26-19.
I, again, apologize for just how late these picks are being posted, but thanks for reading!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, October 10, 2013
WEEK 5 NFL REACTION AND THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
Week 5 of the 2013 NFL season went almost entirely as I had hoped and predicted with only a few exceptions. I assumed that a Patrick Willisless 49ers would struggle to stop Arian Foster and company even at home in San Fransisco--I was wrong. I thought the Bears would create more turnovers at home against the Saints, and I assumed the Saints wouldn't be nearly as dominant on the road--I, again, was wrong. I also believed the Falcons were strong enough at home to squeak by the Jets 28-27--I was exactly right until the Jets kicked a field goal with 3 seconds left on the clock to make it 30-28 and totally stun the crowd in Atlanta.
I went 11-3 overall and was quite pleased that the statistics accumulated in the first 4 weeks proved substantial enough to make mostly accurate picks. Thus far, Purple Nightmare is 51-26 in predictions. That number can definitely be improved upon, but it's nearly a 2-1 ratio of correct to incorrect predictions, and that's not bad this early in the season. It must be noted that I didn't post my Week 4 predictions on the blog as I had no access to a computer, but instead I posted my predicted winners on facebook for at least some of my readers to see.
Five weeks of NFL football has led me to a few major conclusions. The first is that the Saints are back to being a dominant team, and they've developed a new ability to win convincingly on the road. Sure, the Saints have won on the road in the past regular seasons, but I've been impressed that some of those road wins have been against divisional rivals against which the Saints have struggled in recent years. This simply illustrates how integral Sean Payton's coaching is to the success of that franchise. The second major conclusion is that the Patriots are a quality franchise that finds a way to win despite the loss of major offensive weapons. The Patriots will likely get Rob Gronkowski back this week, and that's not a moment too soon as Vince Wilfork just went down for the season. Will the Patriots increased offensive production more than make up for the loss of possibly their best defensive player? Only time will tell, but I believe so. The third conclusion is that the Broncos are vulnerable defensively speaking, but that could change in one more week as Von Miller returns in Week 7. It's tough to come to grips with the fact that the Cowboys stood toe to toe with the Broncos, but maybe that game will provide a blueprint for future pass-heavy opponents to finally take down Peyton Manning.
For all those who believe the Broncos are simply too good to be stopped: beware the Peyton Manning pattern. Manning is the greatest regular season quarterback of all time. I can remember almost no season where he hasn't led his team to at least 12 wins. This regular season average is, however, over-shadowed by Peyton's mere 9 playoff wins over the course of 15 seasons and 4 of those wins came in 2006. In order words, Peyton manning has had 5 playoff wins in 14 of his 15 total seasons in the league despite a spectacular average regular season record. Manning's one weakness is his body's inability to function well in cold weather. It is for that reason that Tom Brady will forever win the debate about who was a better QB between the two future hall-of-famers. Peyton is a better leader on the field and possibly the most intelligent player to ever play the game, but Tom isn't far behind in either of those categories and his body doesn't fail him in harsh playoff environments.
This certainly isn't the first time we've seen Peyton Manning look unstoppable during the regular season, but this may be the most talented team of which he's ever been a part. The 2013 Broncos, like the 2007 Patriots, may find themselves in more and more close games and shootouts as the season wears on. One thing is for sure: the Cowboys aren't a great football team and they showed the league exactly how to score over and over and over on the most dominant team in football.
RAVENS RECAP AND LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY
Sunday's win over the Dolphins was a thrilling end to an otherwise disappointing weekend (Terp fans, you know what I'm talking about). The Ravens beat a 3-1 team on the road, and they did it in large part by getting back to what Ravens football is all about: running the ball, stopping the run, and getting after the quarterback. I, however, was left at least somewhat unsatisfied and a bit worried about the Ravens going forward. Luckily, a few upcoming changes to the roster should erase my concerns.
The most worrisome aspect of Sunday's game was the lack of pass protection from the Ravens offensive line. Bryant McKinnie looked as though he almost WANTED Flacco to get hit, and A.Q. Shipley performed rather poorly at left guard. Good news! The Ravens will almost certainly start Eugene Monroe at left tackle and hopefully start Kelechi Osemele at left guard this week against the Packers.
The second most worrisome aspect of the game was the fact that the offense didn't TRULY get going until the Dolphins lost two of their best defensive players, Dannell Ellerbe and Nolan Carroll. The Dolphins are a solid team, but I'm still waiting to see the Ravens break out in offensive fireworks against...well...anyone! Good news! With Jacoby Jones, Marlon Brown, and Brandon Stokley all likely to return to action, we can expect the Ravens to have no shortage of offensive weapons on the field at any given moment this weekend.
It's not only the offense that has struggled at times. The Ravens defense has made many plays and done a great job as a whole considering how much time it has spent on the field. The secondary, however, has given up rather big plays that most likely would not have happened in years past with Ed Reed patrolling field. I'd like to see improvement from Matt Elam and James Ihedigbo, especially before playing pass-heavy teams such as the Packers, Patriots, and even the Bengals. Lardarius Webb has looked impressive, but he's clearly not playing at 100%. Jimmy Smith has been a pleasant surprise, but the biggest disappointment has been Corey Graham. Graham demonstrated weakness in coverage early in the season against the Broncos, and teams have been picking on him ever since. I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to do exactly that, but hopefully there will be enough safety help to prevent the Packers from scoring quickly as they're known to do.
One surefire way to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field is to be able to run the football. Ray Rice had his best day with 74 yards and two touchdowns in Miami, but he still lacked the explosiveness and elusiveness we're used to seeing year after year. It's possible that his hip flexor is not yet 100%, but I fear that we're beginning to see the decline of one of the greatest playmakers in Ravens history. I believe the Ravens will continue to run the ball better as the season progresses, but how Ray Rice performs following the bye week in less than a month will tell us much about his true physical state going forward. If we see a resurgence in Rice's movement and productivity, then we'll know he was simply dealing with a minor injury. If Ray continues to look slow and continues to fumble the ball with the same frequency, then it's likely that #27 is simply wearing down from carrying this offense on his shoulders for half a decade.
The Packers are somehow narrowly favored to win this weekend despite the Ravens' flawless home record and the Packers inability to win their last 4 road games dating back to last season. Without Clay Matthews and with Kelechi Osemele at left guard and Eugene Monroe at left tackle, I can't see the Packers generating much of any pass rush on the road. The Ravens will have a full arsenal of field-stretching wide receivers with Deonte Thompson, Jacoby Jones, Marlon Brown, and Torrey Smith all healthy against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Packers simply aren't what they once were and the Ravens are still dominant at home.
THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
GIANTS AT BEARS- The Bears have been up and down thus far this season. The Bears defense didn't shut down the Saints offense like I predicted, but the Saints offense is quite good and the Bears still lost by only 6 points. The Giants, on the other hand, are in shambles and could very well tank this season at this point in order to get a high draft pick. I've just been informed that the Giants will start Brandon Jacobs...let that sink in. The Giants offensive line is too poor to hold up to a relatively strong Bears pass rush, and the Giants defense won't be able to stop the Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and the Bears passing attack. BEARS 38-24.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
I went 11-3 overall and was quite pleased that the statistics accumulated in the first 4 weeks proved substantial enough to make mostly accurate picks. Thus far, Purple Nightmare is 51-26 in predictions. That number can definitely be improved upon, but it's nearly a 2-1 ratio of correct to incorrect predictions, and that's not bad this early in the season. It must be noted that I didn't post my Week 4 predictions on the blog as I had no access to a computer, but instead I posted my predicted winners on facebook for at least some of my readers to see.
Five weeks of NFL football has led me to a few major conclusions. The first is that the Saints are back to being a dominant team, and they've developed a new ability to win convincingly on the road. Sure, the Saints have won on the road in the past regular seasons, but I've been impressed that some of those road wins have been against divisional rivals against which the Saints have struggled in recent years. This simply illustrates how integral Sean Payton's coaching is to the success of that franchise. The second major conclusion is that the Patriots are a quality franchise that finds a way to win despite the loss of major offensive weapons. The Patriots will likely get Rob Gronkowski back this week, and that's not a moment too soon as Vince Wilfork just went down for the season. Will the Patriots increased offensive production more than make up for the loss of possibly their best defensive player? Only time will tell, but I believe so. The third conclusion is that the Broncos are vulnerable defensively speaking, but that could change in one more week as Von Miller returns in Week 7. It's tough to come to grips with the fact that the Cowboys stood toe to toe with the Broncos, but maybe that game will provide a blueprint for future pass-heavy opponents to finally take down Peyton Manning.
For all those who believe the Broncos are simply too good to be stopped: beware the Peyton Manning pattern. Manning is the greatest regular season quarterback of all time. I can remember almost no season where he hasn't led his team to at least 12 wins. This regular season average is, however, over-shadowed by Peyton's mere 9 playoff wins over the course of 15 seasons and 4 of those wins came in 2006. In order words, Peyton manning has had 5 playoff wins in 14 of his 15 total seasons in the league despite a spectacular average regular season record. Manning's one weakness is his body's inability to function well in cold weather. It is for that reason that Tom Brady will forever win the debate about who was a better QB between the two future hall-of-famers. Peyton is a better leader on the field and possibly the most intelligent player to ever play the game, but Tom isn't far behind in either of those categories and his body doesn't fail him in harsh playoff environments.
This certainly isn't the first time we've seen Peyton Manning look unstoppable during the regular season, but this may be the most talented team of which he's ever been a part. The 2013 Broncos, like the 2007 Patriots, may find themselves in more and more close games and shootouts as the season wears on. One thing is for sure: the Cowboys aren't a great football team and they showed the league exactly how to score over and over and over on the most dominant team in football.
RAVENS RECAP AND LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY
Sunday's win over the Dolphins was a thrilling end to an otherwise disappointing weekend (Terp fans, you know what I'm talking about). The Ravens beat a 3-1 team on the road, and they did it in large part by getting back to what Ravens football is all about: running the ball, stopping the run, and getting after the quarterback. I, however, was left at least somewhat unsatisfied and a bit worried about the Ravens going forward. Luckily, a few upcoming changes to the roster should erase my concerns.
The most worrisome aspect of Sunday's game was the lack of pass protection from the Ravens offensive line. Bryant McKinnie looked as though he almost WANTED Flacco to get hit, and A.Q. Shipley performed rather poorly at left guard. Good news! The Ravens will almost certainly start Eugene Monroe at left tackle and hopefully start Kelechi Osemele at left guard this week against the Packers.
The second most worrisome aspect of the game was the fact that the offense didn't TRULY get going until the Dolphins lost two of their best defensive players, Dannell Ellerbe and Nolan Carroll. The Dolphins are a solid team, but I'm still waiting to see the Ravens break out in offensive fireworks against...well...anyone! Good news! With Jacoby Jones, Marlon Brown, and Brandon Stokley all likely to return to action, we can expect the Ravens to have no shortage of offensive weapons on the field at any given moment this weekend.
It's not only the offense that has struggled at times. The Ravens defense has made many plays and done a great job as a whole considering how much time it has spent on the field. The secondary, however, has given up rather big plays that most likely would not have happened in years past with Ed Reed patrolling field. I'd like to see improvement from Matt Elam and James Ihedigbo, especially before playing pass-heavy teams such as the Packers, Patriots, and even the Bengals. Lardarius Webb has looked impressive, but he's clearly not playing at 100%. Jimmy Smith has been a pleasant surprise, but the biggest disappointment has been Corey Graham. Graham demonstrated weakness in coverage early in the season against the Broncos, and teams have been picking on him ever since. I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to do exactly that, but hopefully there will be enough safety help to prevent the Packers from scoring quickly as they're known to do.
One surefire way to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field is to be able to run the football. Ray Rice had his best day with 74 yards and two touchdowns in Miami, but he still lacked the explosiveness and elusiveness we're used to seeing year after year. It's possible that his hip flexor is not yet 100%, but I fear that we're beginning to see the decline of one of the greatest playmakers in Ravens history. I believe the Ravens will continue to run the ball better as the season progresses, but how Ray Rice performs following the bye week in less than a month will tell us much about his true physical state going forward. If we see a resurgence in Rice's movement and productivity, then we'll know he was simply dealing with a minor injury. If Ray continues to look slow and continues to fumble the ball with the same frequency, then it's likely that #27 is simply wearing down from carrying this offense on his shoulders for half a decade.
The Packers are somehow narrowly favored to win this weekend despite the Ravens' flawless home record and the Packers inability to win their last 4 road games dating back to last season. Without Clay Matthews and with Kelechi Osemele at left guard and Eugene Monroe at left tackle, I can't see the Packers generating much of any pass rush on the road. The Ravens will have a full arsenal of field-stretching wide receivers with Deonte Thompson, Jacoby Jones, Marlon Brown, and Torrey Smith all healthy against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Packers simply aren't what they once were and the Ravens are still dominant at home.
THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
GIANTS AT BEARS- The Bears have been up and down thus far this season. The Bears defense didn't shut down the Saints offense like I predicted, but the Saints offense is quite good and the Bears still lost by only 6 points. The Giants, on the other hand, are in shambles and could very well tank this season at this point in order to get a high draft pick. I've just been informed that the Giants will start Brandon Jacobs...let that sink in. The Giants offensive line is too poor to hold up to a relatively strong Bears pass rush, and the Giants defense won't be able to stop the Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and the Bears passing attack. BEARS 38-24.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
WEEK 5 NFL PREDICTIONS
The NFL season has thus far been far from predictable. Teams such as the Seahawks, Patriots, Broncos, and Saints remain unbeaten as many expected, but many other teams assumed to be contenders have floundered at times. The Texans and Ravens both fell to 2-2 after losing close games that they likely would have won easily last season. The Bengals fell to the Browns despite all the early season hype about Cincinnati running away with the division this year. Let's also not forget that the 49ers are a mediocre 2-2 after beginning the season as Super Bowl favorites in the eyes of many. All of these facts, however, simply point to the validity of a philosophy I've developed over the past could of seasons of blogging: the first month of any given season is simply never going to be accurately predictable as no one yet knows the true identity most teams and not enough statistics have yet been accumulated in order to perform proper analysis.
What's that you say? The first four weeks of the season are gone now? Right you are! This is Week 5 and things should look a bit clearer from here on out. One major trend I noticed in the first four weeks was many teams that typically possess stout defenses are no longer particularly impressive on that front. The 49ers have allowed 23.75 points in 4 games. Ordinarily I would attribute such a lack of defensive production to a tough road schedule, but the 49ers allowed an average of 27.5 points at home thus far! The Bears have allowed 114 points through 4 games, and that puts them on pace to allow an astounding 456 points by the end of this season after allowing only 277 points in all of 2012. The longtime defensive powerhouse Steelers are not far behind the Bears as they've allowed 110 points thus far, and that puts them on pace for 440 points allowed by the end of this season.
The teams that have proven impressive defensively this season are actually quite surprising. The Carolina Panthers have allowed only 36 points through their first three games as they have already had a bye week. The Patriots have allowed only 57 points despite possessing mediocre pass and run defenses as far as yardage allowed is concerned. That can only mean that the Patriots' redzone defense is rather impressive. It must be noted, however, that there may be a drop off in the Patriots defense as Vince Wilfork is out for the rest of the season. The fact that the Chiefs defense has performed well is not surprising given the level of defensive talent on that team, but the upswing in the Chiefs' offensive production has helped to convert defensive talent into defensive production. The Seahawks have looked defensively dominant at times, but as I expected, they are FAR less defensively effective on the road as they are at home.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has also only been truly impressive at home. The Ravens allowed an average of 7.5 points in Baltimore, but they allowed a staggering average of 36 points per game on the road. It must be noted that the Ravens defense performed quite admirably in their last road game in Buffalo considering the sheer number of interceptions (5) Joe Flacco threw. The Ravens allowed only 3 points in the second half of the game, and that was without Lardarius Webb on the field. This is good news for Ravens fans as it means their team has the youthful energy and stamina to perform well despite staying out on the field for a large percentage of the game. If the Ravens' rushing attack and passing production gain momentum, this Ravens defense could prove to be a top 3 unit in the league.
This week's schedule features the least number of mismatches that we've seen thus far. At first glance, I see 9 games this week that could easily go either way. Thankfully, we've now seen enough games to have accumulated a usable amount of statistics that should hopefully make the probable winner of each game more apparent. Let's take a look!
WEEK 5 NFL PREDICTIONS
BILLS AT BROWNS- It would be a tad insulting of me to not say that the Bills impressed me in their win over the defending Super Bowl Champs, but the fact was that the Bills did a lot to try to lose that game--the Ravens simply did more. The Browns are hot off a beatdown of the Bengals, and I can't imagine Buffalo will have any more success than Cincinnati. BROWNS 21-16.
SAINTS AT BEARS- The Saints certainly appear to be a much better team than the Bears thus far, but I don't like how the Saints perform on the road. Three out of four of the Saints' games have been at home thus far, and their one road game was an embarrassingly close win over a horrible Buccaneers team in Tampa Bay. The Bears have produced an average of 27.5 points per game at home thus far and one of those games was against a defensively impressive Bengals team. The Saints' defense is simply not strong enough on the road to hold the Bear's down, and the Saints' offense isn't impressive enough on the road to put up enough points to win. BEARS 27-21.
PATRIOTS AT BENGALS- The Patriots will still finish the season with a MUCH better record than the Bengals, but the loss of Wilfork and the fact that Gronkowski likely won't be back until Week 6 is enough to make me believe the Bengals will bounce back with a win at home over the Pats. The Pats won't be able to contain the Bengals offense without one of the biggest pieces to their pass-rushing puzzle, and the Patriots offense is not yet nearly productive to overcome defensive struggles against this Bengals defense on the road. BENGALS 31-27.
LIONS AT PACKERS- The Packers have a bad 1-2 record thus far, but they're elite in a few notable statistical categories. Green has the 3rd ranked pass offense, the 9th ranked rush offense, and the 8th ranked rush offense. The Packers also have the 28th ranked pass defense, and that is how and why the Lions will find some success against them on Sunday. The Packers, however, are coming off of a bye week and their defense will get enough of a boost at home to win. There's no way Aaron Rodgers is losing a shootout at home to a divisional rival. PACKERS 35-24
JAGUARS AT RAMS- I...don't think this requires much of an explanation. RAMS 31-14.
SEAHAWKS AT COLTS- The Colts are picking up steam and the Seahawks are not a dominant road team. With a little Luck this game will go to the home team. COLTS 31-28.
RAVENS AT DOLPHINS- The Ravens have lost both of their road games thus far, and the Dolphins have been quite impressive at home with a big win over the typically mighty Atlanta Falcons. On the one hand, the Ravens typically bounce back from losses quite well. On the other hand, the Ravens' offensive woes might not be solved one week after one of the worst offensive showings in recent Ravens memory. The Ravens' running game should get a boost with the addition of talented young left tackle Eugene Monroe from the Jaguars, but that addition alone won't be enough to run the ball effectively on the Dolphins' 10th ranked run defense. If the Ravens are going to beat the Dolphins, they'll have to do so through the air as the Dolphins have the 24th ranked pass defense in the league. The Ravens availability of Ravens receivers will likely decide the outcome of this game. Jacoby Jones, Deonte Thompson, Marlon Brown, and Brandon Stokley are all questionable to return this week. Any single one (or two...or three...or four) of these receivers would provide a big boost for Joe Flacco who currently only has Torrey Smith playing well. The Ravens would be smart to set up Ray Rice with screen passes the way that the Saints did on Monday night with Darren Sproles quite effectively. The Ravens pass rush should be enough to give Tannehill problems, and after the game I believe the Ravens will attempt to trade away Bryant McKinnie to the Dolphins for who knows what. I know some may disagree with me here, but I can't picture Joe having two horrendous games in a row. RAVENS 27-20.
EAGLES AT GIANTS- It's a divisional game, so anything can happen....but the Giants are just plain bad and the Eagles are slightly better. The Giants also tend not to have a homefield advantage. Let's not over-think this one, folks. EAGLES 33-17.
PANTHERS AT CARDINALS- The Panthers are once again a couple of pieces short of a great team. They had two extremely narrow losses and one dominant win over the Giants before their by last weekend. The Carolina will keep this one close, but the Cardinals have the 2nd ranked rush defense in the league and the Panthers struggle to pass the ball. This is a bad matchup for an otherwise underrated Panthers team. CARDINALS 17-13.
COWBOYS AT BRONCOS- HA! BRONCOS 42-21.
TEXANS AT 49ERS- This is a tough call, but Anquan Boldin won't perform well matched up against Jonathan Joseph. The 49ers defense hasn't been strong enough at home to hold back Arian Foster, and they don't create turnovers well enough to change the game the way the Seahawks did last weekend. TEXANS 30-20.
CHARGERS AT RAIDERS- The Chargers will be without Dwight Freeney and Malcolm Floyd. Terrell Pryor has actually impressed me even when getting blown out by the Broncos (because pretty much everyone gets blown out by the Broncos). Phillip Rivers is having a great season, but not having Freeney will weaken the Chargers defense and the loss of Malcolm Floyd just takes away one more big bodied target. I have a hunch the Raiders will get this one done on the road. RAIDERS 24-21.
JETS AT FALCONS- The Jets have impressed me thus far, but the Falcons won't drop two in a row at home. This one will be close, but Matt Ryan will win this battle. FALCONS 28-27.
The Ravens could very well lose this week and send me into a shame spiral as I typically wear Ravens gear at least 3 days out of each week. I believe they'll get back on track with a tough fought road victory though, and Flacco will play with more confidence with an upgraded left tackle protecting his blind side. I'm excited to see how accurate I will be using the stats I evaluated when deciding the winner of each game for this week. Don't lose faith, Baltimore. We have a lot of football ahead of us.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
What's that you say? The first four weeks of the season are gone now? Right you are! This is Week 5 and things should look a bit clearer from here on out. One major trend I noticed in the first four weeks was many teams that typically possess stout defenses are no longer particularly impressive on that front. The 49ers have allowed 23.75 points in 4 games. Ordinarily I would attribute such a lack of defensive production to a tough road schedule, but the 49ers allowed an average of 27.5 points at home thus far! The Bears have allowed 114 points through 4 games, and that puts them on pace to allow an astounding 456 points by the end of this season after allowing only 277 points in all of 2012. The longtime defensive powerhouse Steelers are not far behind the Bears as they've allowed 110 points thus far, and that puts them on pace for 440 points allowed by the end of this season.
The teams that have proven impressive defensively this season are actually quite surprising. The Carolina Panthers have allowed only 36 points through their first three games as they have already had a bye week. The Patriots have allowed only 57 points despite possessing mediocre pass and run defenses as far as yardage allowed is concerned. That can only mean that the Patriots' redzone defense is rather impressive. It must be noted, however, that there may be a drop off in the Patriots defense as Vince Wilfork is out for the rest of the season. The fact that the Chiefs defense has performed well is not surprising given the level of defensive talent on that team, but the upswing in the Chiefs' offensive production has helped to convert defensive talent into defensive production. The Seahawks have looked defensively dominant at times, but as I expected, they are FAR less defensively effective on the road as they are at home.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has also only been truly impressive at home. The Ravens allowed an average of 7.5 points in Baltimore, but they allowed a staggering average of 36 points per game on the road. It must be noted that the Ravens defense performed quite admirably in their last road game in Buffalo considering the sheer number of interceptions (5) Joe Flacco threw. The Ravens allowed only 3 points in the second half of the game, and that was without Lardarius Webb on the field. This is good news for Ravens fans as it means their team has the youthful energy and stamina to perform well despite staying out on the field for a large percentage of the game. If the Ravens' rushing attack and passing production gain momentum, this Ravens defense could prove to be a top 3 unit in the league.
This week's schedule features the least number of mismatches that we've seen thus far. At first glance, I see 9 games this week that could easily go either way. Thankfully, we've now seen enough games to have accumulated a usable amount of statistics that should hopefully make the probable winner of each game more apparent. Let's take a look!
WEEK 5 NFL PREDICTIONS
BILLS AT BROWNS- It would be a tad insulting of me to not say that the Bills impressed me in their win over the defending Super Bowl Champs, but the fact was that the Bills did a lot to try to lose that game--the Ravens simply did more. The Browns are hot off a beatdown of the Bengals, and I can't imagine Buffalo will have any more success than Cincinnati. BROWNS 21-16.
SAINTS AT BEARS- The Saints certainly appear to be a much better team than the Bears thus far, but I don't like how the Saints perform on the road. Three out of four of the Saints' games have been at home thus far, and their one road game was an embarrassingly close win over a horrible Buccaneers team in Tampa Bay. The Bears have produced an average of 27.5 points per game at home thus far and one of those games was against a defensively impressive Bengals team. The Saints' defense is simply not strong enough on the road to hold the Bear's down, and the Saints' offense isn't impressive enough on the road to put up enough points to win. BEARS 27-21.
PATRIOTS AT BENGALS- The Patriots will still finish the season with a MUCH better record than the Bengals, but the loss of Wilfork and the fact that Gronkowski likely won't be back until Week 6 is enough to make me believe the Bengals will bounce back with a win at home over the Pats. The Pats won't be able to contain the Bengals offense without one of the biggest pieces to their pass-rushing puzzle, and the Patriots offense is not yet nearly productive to overcome defensive struggles against this Bengals defense on the road. BENGALS 31-27.
LIONS AT PACKERS- The Packers have a bad 1-2 record thus far, but they're elite in a few notable statistical categories. Green has the 3rd ranked pass offense, the 9th ranked rush offense, and the 8th ranked rush offense. The Packers also have the 28th ranked pass defense, and that is how and why the Lions will find some success against them on Sunday. The Packers, however, are coming off of a bye week and their defense will get enough of a boost at home to win. There's no way Aaron Rodgers is losing a shootout at home to a divisional rival. PACKERS 35-24
JAGUARS AT RAMS- I...don't think this requires much of an explanation. RAMS 31-14.
SEAHAWKS AT COLTS- The Colts are picking up steam and the Seahawks are not a dominant road team. With a little Luck this game will go to the home team. COLTS 31-28.
RAVENS AT DOLPHINS- The Ravens have lost both of their road games thus far, and the Dolphins have been quite impressive at home with a big win over the typically mighty Atlanta Falcons. On the one hand, the Ravens typically bounce back from losses quite well. On the other hand, the Ravens' offensive woes might not be solved one week after one of the worst offensive showings in recent Ravens memory. The Ravens' running game should get a boost with the addition of talented young left tackle Eugene Monroe from the Jaguars, but that addition alone won't be enough to run the ball effectively on the Dolphins' 10th ranked run defense. If the Ravens are going to beat the Dolphins, they'll have to do so through the air as the Dolphins have the 24th ranked pass defense in the league. The Ravens availability of Ravens receivers will likely decide the outcome of this game. Jacoby Jones, Deonte Thompson, Marlon Brown, and Brandon Stokley are all questionable to return this week. Any single one (or two...or three...or four) of these receivers would provide a big boost for Joe Flacco who currently only has Torrey Smith playing well. The Ravens would be smart to set up Ray Rice with screen passes the way that the Saints did on Monday night with Darren Sproles quite effectively. The Ravens pass rush should be enough to give Tannehill problems, and after the game I believe the Ravens will attempt to trade away Bryant McKinnie to the Dolphins for who knows what. I know some may disagree with me here, but I can't picture Joe having two horrendous games in a row. RAVENS 27-20.
EAGLES AT GIANTS- It's a divisional game, so anything can happen....but the Giants are just plain bad and the Eagles are slightly better. The Giants also tend not to have a homefield advantage. Let's not over-think this one, folks. EAGLES 33-17.
PANTHERS AT CARDINALS- The Panthers are once again a couple of pieces short of a great team. They had two extremely narrow losses and one dominant win over the Giants before their by last weekend. The Carolina will keep this one close, but the Cardinals have the 2nd ranked rush defense in the league and the Panthers struggle to pass the ball. This is a bad matchup for an otherwise underrated Panthers team. CARDINALS 17-13.
COWBOYS AT BRONCOS- HA! BRONCOS 42-21.
TEXANS AT 49ERS- This is a tough call, but Anquan Boldin won't perform well matched up against Jonathan Joseph. The 49ers defense hasn't been strong enough at home to hold back Arian Foster, and they don't create turnovers well enough to change the game the way the Seahawks did last weekend. TEXANS 30-20.
CHARGERS AT RAIDERS- The Chargers will be without Dwight Freeney and Malcolm Floyd. Terrell Pryor has actually impressed me even when getting blown out by the Broncos (because pretty much everyone gets blown out by the Broncos). Phillip Rivers is having a great season, but not having Freeney will weaken the Chargers defense and the loss of Malcolm Floyd just takes away one more big bodied target. I have a hunch the Raiders will get this one done on the road. RAIDERS 24-21.
JETS AT FALCONS- The Jets have impressed me thus far, but the Falcons won't drop two in a row at home. This one will be close, but Matt Ryan will win this battle. FALCONS 28-27.
The Ravens could very well lose this week and send me into a shame spiral as I typically wear Ravens gear at least 3 days out of each week. I believe they'll get back on track with a tough fought road victory though, and Flacco will play with more confidence with an upgraded left tackle protecting his blind side. I'm excited to see how accurate I will be using the stats I evaluated when deciding the winner of each game for this week. Don't lose faith, Baltimore. We have a lot of football ahead of us.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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