It's not technically mid-season as the Ravens have not yet played 8 games. It is, however, the middle of the 16 week season and the Ravens just returned to practice after a much needed bye week. At 3-4 it's tough to be excited about the Ravens going forward. Having a losing record feels awful for a team that has done almost nothing but win most of its games for the last 5 years. It certainly feels awful for a team that just went wild in the playoffs and beat the best two quarterbacks of a generation in their respective home stadiums en route to a Super Bowl victory. There are, however, 4 main reasons that truly loyal Ravens fans have to be optimistic about the Ravens chances of winning most of the rest of their games on their remaining schedule and earning their 6th straight playoffs appearance.
The first of the aforementioned reasons for optimism is the Ravens redzone defense. The Ravens have only allowed 5 touchdowns in their last 6 games. Let that sink in for a moment. After the calamitous Week 1 rout in Denver, the Ravens have tightened up their defense in the redzone and have only allowed 5 touchdowns after even having faced Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. In fact, in weeks 2-7 the Ravens only allowed an average of 16.5 points per game. The defense isn't perfect as it has sometimes struggled to stop teams from driving late in games, but that may have more to do with the fact that the Ravens have almost never played with a lead this season and the offense often struggles to sustain drives for the first three quarters of games. Make no mistake, this Ravens defense is an impressive unit. It may not be elite in the categories of passing and rushing yards allowed, but the scoreboard is what matters, and the Ravens defense has kept opposing teams from scoring much of anything other than field goals even in their recent losses.
As I just mentioned, the Ravens offense has struggled early in games to sustain drives and score. There is, however, reason for hope that this trend will soon be a thing of the past. I've complained many times in previous posts that Juan Castillo's blocking schemes and "run game coordination" are to blame for the Ravens offensive woes. Well the Ravens got away at least partially from Juan Castillo's schemes against the Steelers and saw noticeable improvement in pass protection and run blocking. The major problem was that the Raven lacked the personnel to truly take advantage of such improvements to the offensive line as Bernard Pierce has suffered through a hamstring injury and Ray Rice is only beginning to return to form after a hip flexor strain suffered weeks ago. Both of these talented backs should be healthy this Sunday against the Browns, and that should help establish a running game that will force opponents to bring up at least one safety in run coverage and, thus, clear the way for the return of the deep passes that made Joe Flacco famous. Success on the ground should also allow the Ravens to sell the play action fake and only further create opportunities for bombs to the likes of Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones.
The Ravens won't necessarily have an easy time moving the ball this weekend as they face a rather stout Browns defense on the road. The Ravens, however, will have a favorable matchup as they already beat the Browns once this season and have never lost in Cleveland during the Flacco/Harbaugh era. That brings us to the next reason for Ravens optimism: a favorable schedule going forward. The Raven still have some serious tests ahead of them. They face the Bengals, Lions, Jets, and Patriots, but the Lions appear to be the only truly challenging road matchup until the final week of the season in Cincinnati. The Ravens have the good fortune of getting to face the Patriots, Jets, Bengals, Steelers, and Vikings at home in Baltimore, and they face a broken Bears team, a somewhat offensively scary Lions team, and the Bengals on the road. The Bengals looked great last week against the Jets, but the Jets are so up and down in their performances from week to week that I think their depressing 49-9 loss to the Bengals was more about the Jets inconsistency than the Bengals' dominance. The Bengals, after all, will be without shutdown corner Leon Hall when they face the Ravens this season, and that could mean a big couple of days for Flacco and his targets.
The 4th and final major reason for optimism going forward is that the Ravens organization typically makes good adjustments when their collective back is up against the wall. Sometimes narrow wins over poor or mediocre teams make them complacent and lull them into a false sense of security, but there is certainly no sense of security as the Ravens have lost 3 out of their last 4 games. The Ravens, in fact, went through almost an identical situation last season when they lost 3 games in a row after starting out red hot with a 9-2 record through the first 11 weeks. The string of 3 losses ended up being the best thing that could have possibly happened to the Ravens as it forced them to fire a coach whose offensive schemes and play-calling held the team back in pivotal moments. The Ravens are in a similar predicament right now, and like last season, it's abundantly clear which coach is to blame for issues with offensive schemes. The Ravens have not yet fired Juan Castillo and maybe they don't plan to do so in the near future, but they are now acutely aware that his changes to the Ravens offense are largely to blame for the sharp drop off in rushing production the likes of which have never been seen in this organization. Enough is enough, and I'm quite sure Harbaugh feels the same way at this point. There's no more room for error and no more room to experiment with Juan Castillo's system. It's simply not a good fit here and we almost certainly won't see much of it anymore.
If I had to make an overly optimistic guess right now, I'd say the Ravens will likely beat the Browns, Bengals, Steelers, Bears, Vikings, Patriots, and Jets while losing on the road to the Lions and Bengals late in the season. If the Ravens stand nothing to gain by winning in the final week of the season, they may very well once again sit their starters and take a loss to the Bengals to gain the same effect as a bye week with a 10-6 record. That, however, is totally presumptuous as it all totally depends on how the divisional and wildcard races pan out. The Ravens may NEED to win an 11th game to get into the playoffs, or maybe they will have lost another one of the games they played and reaching 10 wins will require they play their starters every week. Regardless of what the future holds, the Ravens have few games that appear truly daunting. The Lions aren't unbeatable and they play defense poorly, but the Ravens aren't a great road team and Megatron is a matchup nightmare for anyone. I'll be thrilled if the Ravens can win in Detroit but I won't be even mildly surprised if they lose. The Baltimore Ravens don't have to be perfect in the last 9 games of the season, but they only have room for 1-2 losses. They need only to make minor corrections to change this offensive unit back to one capable of scoring 30+ points in any given game. The question is, will they ACTUALLY make those corrections? We will know in only a few short days.
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION
BENGALS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins began the year red hot but have simmered down as of late. In their last 3 games, the Dolphins have had major chances to win and even appeared to finally have figured out the Patriots last weekend...and then the second half of the game happened. The Dolphins lost their last 3 close games while the Bengals have won some very close games against some of the same opponents to which the Dolphins narrowly lost. That isn't to say that this couldn't be a trap game for the Bengals. They'll be on the road on an extremely short week against a team with a talented young quarterback and some solid receivers. The Bengals will be without their star cornerback Leon Hall for the rest of the season and that may open things up for the Dolphins' aerial attack. The Dolphins also recently helped solidify their pass protection in a trade for Bryant McKinnie, so the Bengals will have a bit more to deal with when getting after Ryan Tannehill. I would love to see the Dolphins win this one and surprise the world, but the Bengals are clicking too much on offense recently. Andy Dalton is having a breakout year and A.J. Green will give headaches to the Dolphins defensive backs. On top of that, even with the acquisition of Bryant McKinnie, the Dolphins will face a harrowing Bengals pass rush that will almost certainly get to Ryan Tannehill multiple times and force some poor throws. This will be close, but the Bengals have found a way to win close games while the Dolphins have found ways to lose them. BENGALS 27-21.
Members of the Ravens and their coaching staff have said this is a "must win game" against the Browns. They are correct. It is a must win game because it's one of the easiest matchups the Ravens have left. The Browns aren't an easy opponent and usually play the Ravens closely, but they're a team that often lacks the edge to put teams away late. The Ravens have played many close games against the Browns in the last 6 seasons, but they have always found a way to win. The Browns will be playing with their third quarterback and with lackluster running backs. If the Ravens CAN'T win this game, then there's little reason to expect them to beat any of the tougher opponents on their remaining schedule let alone win playoff games. If the Ravens coaching staff hasn't solved the schematic puzzle that has held this offense back by this weekend, it's safe to assume they simply won't do so this season. This is essentially the Ravens last stand, I have faith they'll come through....at least this week. DON'T LOSE HOPE, BALTIMORE.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment