Week 5 of the 2013 NFL season went almost entirely as I had hoped and predicted with only a few exceptions. I assumed that a Patrick Willisless 49ers would struggle to stop Arian Foster and company even at home in San Fransisco--I was wrong. I thought the Bears would create more turnovers at home against the Saints, and I assumed the Saints wouldn't be nearly as dominant on the road--I, again, was wrong. I also believed the Falcons were strong enough at home to squeak by the Jets 28-27--I was exactly right until the Jets kicked a field goal with 3 seconds left on the clock to make it 30-28 and totally stun the crowd in Atlanta.
I went 11-3 overall and was quite pleased that the statistics accumulated in the first 4 weeks proved substantial enough to make mostly accurate picks. Thus far, Purple Nightmare is 51-26 in predictions. That number can definitely be improved upon, but it's nearly a 2-1 ratio of correct to incorrect predictions, and that's not bad this early in the season. It must be noted that I didn't post my Week 4 predictions on the blog as I had no access to a computer, but instead I posted my predicted winners on facebook for at least some of my readers to see.
Five weeks of NFL football has led me to a few major conclusions. The first is that the Saints are back to being a dominant team, and they've developed a new ability to win convincingly on the road. Sure, the Saints have won on the road in the past regular seasons, but I've been impressed that some of those road wins have been against divisional rivals against which the Saints have struggled in recent years. This simply illustrates how integral Sean Payton's coaching is to the success of that franchise. The second major conclusion is that the Patriots are a quality franchise that finds a way to win despite the loss of major offensive weapons. The Patriots will likely get Rob Gronkowski back this week, and that's not a moment too soon as Vince Wilfork just went down for the season. Will the Patriots increased offensive production more than make up for the loss of possibly their best defensive player? Only time will tell, but I believe so. The third conclusion is that the Broncos are vulnerable defensively speaking, but that could change in one more week as Von Miller returns in Week 7. It's tough to come to grips with the fact that the Cowboys stood toe to toe with the Broncos, but maybe that game will provide a blueprint for future pass-heavy opponents to finally take down Peyton Manning.
For all those who believe the Broncos are simply too good to be stopped: beware the Peyton Manning pattern. Manning is the greatest regular season quarterback of all time. I can remember almost no season where he hasn't led his team to at least 12 wins. This regular season average is, however, over-shadowed by Peyton's mere 9 playoff wins over the course of 15 seasons and 4 of those wins came in 2006. In order words, Peyton manning has had 5 playoff wins in 14 of his 15 total seasons in the league despite a spectacular average regular season record. Manning's one weakness is his body's inability to function well in cold weather. It is for that reason that Tom Brady will forever win the debate about who was a better QB between the two future hall-of-famers. Peyton is a better leader on the field and possibly the most intelligent player to ever play the game, but Tom isn't far behind in either of those categories and his body doesn't fail him in harsh playoff environments.
This certainly isn't the first time we've seen Peyton Manning look unstoppable during the regular season, but this may be the most talented team of which he's ever been a part. The 2013 Broncos, like the 2007 Patriots, may find themselves in more and more close games and shootouts as the season wears on. One thing is for sure: the Cowboys aren't a great football team and they showed the league exactly how to score over and over and over on the most dominant team in football.
RAVENS RECAP AND LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY
Sunday's win over the Dolphins was a thrilling end to an otherwise disappointing weekend (Terp fans, you know what I'm talking about). The Ravens beat a 3-1 team on the road, and they did it in large part by getting back to what Ravens football is all about: running the ball, stopping the run, and getting after the quarterback. I, however, was left at least somewhat unsatisfied and a bit worried about the Ravens going forward. Luckily, a few upcoming changes to the roster should erase my concerns.
The most worrisome aspect of Sunday's game was the lack of pass protection from the Ravens offensive line. Bryant McKinnie looked as though he almost WANTED Flacco to get hit, and A.Q. Shipley performed rather poorly at left guard. Good news! The Ravens will almost certainly start Eugene Monroe at left tackle and hopefully start Kelechi Osemele at left guard this week against the Packers.
The second most worrisome aspect of the game was the fact that the offense didn't TRULY get going until the Dolphins lost two of their best defensive players, Dannell Ellerbe and Nolan Carroll. The Dolphins are a solid team, but I'm still waiting to see the Ravens break out in offensive fireworks against...well...anyone! Good news! With Jacoby Jones, Marlon Brown, and Brandon Stokley all likely to return to action, we can expect the Ravens to have no shortage of offensive weapons on the field at any given moment this weekend.
It's not only the offense that has struggled at times. The Ravens defense has made many plays and done a great job as a whole considering how much time it has spent on the field. The secondary, however, has given up rather big plays that most likely would not have happened in years past with Ed Reed patrolling field. I'd like to see improvement from Matt Elam and James Ihedigbo, especially before playing pass-heavy teams such as the Packers, Patriots, and even the Bengals. Lardarius Webb has looked impressive, but he's clearly not playing at 100%. Jimmy Smith has been a pleasant surprise, but the biggest disappointment has been Corey Graham. Graham demonstrated weakness in coverage early in the season against the Broncos, and teams have been picking on him ever since. I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to do exactly that, but hopefully there will be enough safety help to prevent the Packers from scoring quickly as they're known to do.
One surefire way to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field is to be able to run the football. Ray Rice had his best day with 74 yards and two touchdowns in Miami, but he still lacked the explosiveness and elusiveness we're used to seeing year after year. It's possible that his hip flexor is not yet 100%, but I fear that we're beginning to see the decline of one of the greatest playmakers in Ravens history. I believe the Ravens will continue to run the ball better as the season progresses, but how Ray Rice performs following the bye week in less than a month will tell us much about his true physical state going forward. If we see a resurgence in Rice's movement and productivity, then we'll know he was simply dealing with a minor injury. If Ray continues to look slow and continues to fumble the ball with the same frequency, then it's likely that #27 is simply wearing down from carrying this offense on his shoulders for half a decade.
The Packers are somehow narrowly favored to win this weekend despite the Ravens' flawless home record and the Packers inability to win their last 4 road games dating back to last season. Without Clay Matthews and with Kelechi Osemele at left guard and Eugene Monroe at left tackle, I can't see the Packers generating much of any pass rush on the road. The Ravens will have a full arsenal of field-stretching wide receivers with Deonte Thompson, Jacoby Jones, Marlon Brown, and Torrey Smith all healthy against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Packers simply aren't what they once were and the Ravens are still dominant at home.
THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
GIANTS AT BEARS- The Bears have been up and down thus far this season. The Bears defense didn't shut down the Saints offense like I predicted, but the Saints offense is quite good and the Bears still lost by only 6 points. The Giants, on the other hand, are in shambles and could very well tank this season at this point in order to get a high draft pick. I've just been informed that the Giants will start Brandon Jacobs...let that sink in. The Giants offensive line is too poor to hold up to a relatively strong Bears pass rush, and the Giants defense won't be able to stop the Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and the Bears passing attack. BEARS 38-24.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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