The NFL season has thus far been far from predictable. Teams such as the Seahawks, Patriots, Broncos, and Saints remain unbeaten as many expected, but many other teams assumed to be contenders have floundered at times. The Texans and Ravens both fell to 2-2 after losing close games that they likely would have won easily last season. The Bengals fell to the Browns despite all the early season hype about Cincinnati running away with the division this year. Let's also not forget that the 49ers are a mediocre 2-2 after beginning the season as Super Bowl favorites in the eyes of many. All of these facts, however, simply point to the validity of a philosophy I've developed over the past could of seasons of blogging: the first month of any given season is simply never going to be accurately predictable as no one yet knows the true identity most teams and not enough statistics have yet been accumulated in order to perform proper analysis.
What's that you say? The first four weeks of the season are gone now? Right you are! This is Week 5 and things should look a bit clearer from here on out. One major trend I noticed in the first four weeks was many teams that typically possess stout defenses are no longer particularly impressive on that front. The 49ers have allowed 23.75 points in 4 games. Ordinarily I would attribute such a lack of defensive production to a tough road schedule, but the 49ers allowed an average of 27.5 points at home thus far! The Bears have allowed 114 points through 4 games, and that puts them on pace to allow an astounding 456 points by the end of this season after allowing only 277 points in all of 2012. The longtime defensive powerhouse Steelers are not far behind the Bears as they've allowed 110 points thus far, and that puts them on pace for 440 points allowed by the end of this season.
The teams that have proven impressive defensively this season are actually quite surprising. The Carolina Panthers have allowed only 36 points through their first three games as they have already had a bye week. The Patriots have allowed only 57 points despite possessing mediocre pass and run defenses as far as yardage allowed is concerned. That can only mean that the Patriots' redzone defense is rather impressive. It must be noted, however, that there may be a drop off in the Patriots defense as Vince Wilfork is out for the rest of the season. The fact that the Chiefs defense has performed well is not surprising given the level of defensive talent on that team, but the upswing in the Chiefs' offensive production has helped to convert defensive talent into defensive production. The Seahawks have looked defensively dominant at times, but as I expected, they are FAR less defensively effective on the road as they are at home.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has also only been truly impressive at home. The Ravens allowed an average of 7.5 points in Baltimore, but they allowed a staggering average of 36 points per game on the road. It must be noted that the Ravens defense performed quite admirably in their last road game in Buffalo considering the sheer number of interceptions (5) Joe Flacco threw. The Ravens allowed only 3 points in the second half of the game, and that was without Lardarius Webb on the field. This is good news for Ravens fans as it means their team has the youthful energy and stamina to perform well despite staying out on the field for a large percentage of the game. If the Ravens' rushing attack and passing production gain momentum, this Ravens defense could prove to be a top 3 unit in the league.
This week's schedule features the least number of mismatches that we've seen thus far. At first glance, I see 9 games this week that could easily go either way. Thankfully, we've now seen enough games to have accumulated a usable amount of statistics that should hopefully make the probable winner of each game more apparent. Let's take a look!
WEEK 5 NFL PREDICTIONS
BILLS AT BROWNS- It would be a tad insulting of me to not say that the Bills impressed me in their win over the defending Super Bowl Champs, but the fact was that the Bills did a lot to try to lose that game--the Ravens simply did more. The Browns are hot off a beatdown of the Bengals, and I can't imagine Buffalo will have any more success than Cincinnati. BROWNS 21-16.
SAINTS AT BEARS- The Saints certainly appear to be a much better team than the Bears thus far, but I don't like how the Saints perform on the road. Three out of four of the Saints' games have been at home thus far, and their one road game was an embarrassingly close win over a horrible Buccaneers team in Tampa Bay. The Bears have produced an average of 27.5 points per game at home thus far and one of those games was against a defensively impressive Bengals team. The Saints' defense is simply not strong enough on the road to hold the Bear's down, and the Saints' offense isn't impressive enough on the road to put up enough points to win. BEARS 27-21.
PATRIOTS AT BENGALS- The Patriots will still finish the season with a MUCH better record than the Bengals, but the loss of Wilfork and the fact that Gronkowski likely won't be back until Week 6 is enough to make me believe the Bengals will bounce back with a win at home over the Pats. The Pats won't be able to contain the Bengals offense without one of the biggest pieces to their pass-rushing puzzle, and the Patriots offense is not yet nearly productive to overcome defensive struggles against this Bengals defense on the road. BENGALS 31-27.
LIONS AT PACKERS- The Packers have a bad 1-2 record thus far, but they're elite in a few notable statistical categories. Green has the 3rd ranked pass offense, the 9th ranked rush offense, and the 8th ranked rush offense. The Packers also have the 28th ranked pass defense, and that is how and why the Lions will find some success against them on Sunday. The Packers, however, are coming off of a bye week and their defense will get enough of a boost at home to win. There's no way Aaron Rodgers is losing a shootout at home to a divisional rival. PACKERS 35-24
JAGUARS AT RAMS- I...don't think this requires much of an explanation. RAMS 31-14.
SEAHAWKS AT COLTS- The Colts are picking up steam and the Seahawks are not a dominant road team. With a little Luck this game will go to the home team. COLTS 31-28.
RAVENS AT DOLPHINS- The Ravens have lost both of their road games thus far, and the Dolphins have been quite impressive at home with a big win over the typically mighty Atlanta Falcons. On the one hand, the Ravens typically bounce back from losses quite well. On the other hand, the Ravens' offensive woes might not be solved one week after one of the worst offensive showings in recent Ravens memory. The Ravens' running game should get a boost with the addition of talented young left tackle Eugene Monroe from the Jaguars, but that addition alone won't be enough to run the ball effectively on the Dolphins' 10th ranked run defense. If the Ravens are going to beat the Dolphins, they'll have to do so through the air as the Dolphins have the 24th ranked pass defense in the league. The Ravens availability of Ravens receivers will likely decide the outcome of this game. Jacoby Jones, Deonte Thompson, Marlon Brown, and Brandon Stokley are all questionable to return this week. Any single one (or two...or three...or four) of these receivers would provide a big boost for Joe Flacco who currently only has Torrey Smith playing well. The Ravens would be smart to set up Ray Rice with screen passes the way that the Saints did on Monday night with Darren Sproles quite effectively. The Ravens pass rush should be enough to give Tannehill problems, and after the game I believe the Ravens will attempt to trade away Bryant McKinnie to the Dolphins for who knows what. I know some may disagree with me here, but I can't picture Joe having two horrendous games in a row. RAVENS 27-20.
EAGLES AT GIANTS- It's a divisional game, so anything can happen....but the Giants are just plain bad and the Eagles are slightly better. The Giants also tend not to have a homefield advantage. Let's not over-think this one, folks. EAGLES 33-17.
PANTHERS AT CARDINALS- The Panthers are once again a couple of pieces short of a great team. They had two extremely narrow losses and one dominant win over the Giants before their by last weekend. The Carolina will keep this one close, but the Cardinals have the 2nd ranked rush defense in the league and the Panthers struggle to pass the ball. This is a bad matchup for an otherwise underrated Panthers team. CARDINALS 17-13.
COWBOYS AT BRONCOS- HA! BRONCOS 42-21.
TEXANS AT 49ERS- This is a tough call, but Anquan Boldin won't perform well matched up against Jonathan Joseph. The 49ers defense hasn't been strong enough at home to hold back Arian Foster, and they don't create turnovers well enough to change the game the way the Seahawks did last weekend. TEXANS 30-20.
CHARGERS AT RAIDERS- The Chargers will be without Dwight Freeney and Malcolm Floyd. Terrell Pryor has actually impressed me even when getting blown out by the Broncos (because pretty much everyone gets blown out by the Broncos). Phillip Rivers is having a great season, but not having Freeney will weaken the Chargers defense and the loss of Malcolm Floyd just takes away one more big bodied target. I have a hunch the Raiders will get this one done on the road. RAIDERS 24-21.
JETS AT FALCONS- The Jets have impressed me thus far, but the Falcons won't drop two in a row at home. This one will be close, but Matt Ryan will win this battle. FALCONS 28-27.
The Ravens could very well lose this week and send me into a shame spiral as I typically wear Ravens gear at least 3 days out of each week. I believe they'll get back on track with a tough fought road victory though, and Flacco will play with more confidence with an upgraded left tackle protecting his blind side. I'm excited to see how accurate I will be using the stats I evaluated when deciding the winner of each game for this week. Don't lose faith, Baltimore. We have a lot of football ahead of us.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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