Saturday, May 26, 2012

STATE OF THE RAVENS DEFENSE



        The last 4 seasons both spoiled and tortured Ravens fans.  On the one hand, the Ravens were the only team that went to the playoffs in each of the last 4 seasons, and Flacco became the winningest quarterback in NFL history through the first four seasons of a career.  Flacco has also won at least one playoff game in each of his 4 seasons in the league, which is more than the vast majority of quarterbacks can say.  On the other hand, however, this consistent success has frustrated fans to no end as the Ravens have come painfully close to getting to the Superbowl twice, and both of their AFC Championship losses were hard-fought games that ended up being decided by one or two major 4th quarter plays. What made it even worse is that both AFC Championship losses came at the hands of the teams that Ravens fans and players alike hate with every bone in their respective bodies: THE STEELERS AND THE PATRIOTS. 
       During the last two seasons the Ravens defense has had to overcome the loss of its two greatest leaders for significant chunks of time.  Two years ago Ed Reed missed 6 games, and last season Ray Lewis missed 4.  Despite occasional criticism that Ray Lewis has become too slow and that Ed Reed no longer consistently tackles with his body, the Ravens defense performed better with both future hall-of-famers back in pads.  After missing 6 games in 2010, Ed Reed led the NFL in interceptions despite his lengthy absence.  Ray Lewis had an uneven 2011 season, but shined in the AFC Championship and even performed brilliantly in pass coverage against the NFL's best pass offense.  Lewis, despite his age, is the main reason that the Ravens' defense has remained dominant for over a decade.  His leadership, instincts, and experience compensate for decreases in speed over the last 5-6 years. 
       The Ravens will face a new challenge in 2012 that no one could have anticipated.  The 2011 Defensive Player of the Year (Terrell Suggs) tore his achilles tendon a day after Ozzie Newsome drafted the player (Courtney Upshaw) who will most likely act as his replacement during the rehabilitation process.  Anyone disappointed that the Ravens were not able to draft Donta Hightower as Ray Lewis' ultimate replacement should rethink their disappointment since Upshaw will almost certainly immediately fill an enormous void in the linebacker corps left by Suggs or possibly on the other side by Jarret Johnson. 
       Terrell Suggs is feared across the league as a powerful pass-rusher and a dominant run-stopper.  Upshaw likely won't perform to Suggs' level in his rookie season, but that doesn't mean the Ravens defense will take a massive statistical dive.  Possibly the biggest factor that will allow the Ravens to continue to generate a ferocious pass rush is the emergence of the Ravens secondary.  Not too long ago, Ravens fans cringed and whined about the performances of Dominique Foxworth, Fabian Washington, Frank Walker, and occasionally Dawan Landry. 
        Those days, however, seem like ancient history after the 2011 season.  Lardarius Webb is currently one of the AFC's elite cornerbacks, Cary Williams performed at a high level for most of the season, and Jimmy Smith showed in the playoffs why the Ravens were justified in picking him in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft.  The Ravens displayed plenty of depth at corner as Danny Gorer and Chykie Brown provided excellent coverage when subbing in for the starters.  The Ravens also replaced Dawan Landry with an even more intense strong safety, Bernard Pollard A.K.A the Angry Man.  Pollard's devastating hits provide the perfect compliment with Ed Reed's coverage and ball-hawking skills. 
        Now what does all of this talent, physicality, and experience in the secondary mean for the Ravens defense?  The answer is rather simple: the Ravens will be able to blitz with more players because they will trust the secondary to be able to jam receivers at the line of scrimmage and provide enough coverage to give defensive linemen and linebackers adequate time to get to opposing quarterbacks before the ball is released.  Quarterbacks were already incredibly wary of throwing the ball over the middle with #20 lurking in the backfield, but now they won't be able to pick on bad or inexperienced cornerbacks.  Quarterbacks may very well avoid throwing to Lardarius Webb's side of the field much the way that they avoid throwing in Ed Reed's direction after Webby had 5 spectacular interceptions during the regular season as well as a very Reed-like 3 interceptions during the playoffs. Webb, as a matter of fact, did not allow a touchdown during the entire 2011 season!!
        Assuming the secondary has another stellar season in 2012, the young defensive linemen and linebackers will need to step up and bully their way through opposing offensive lines.  Luckily, the Ravens had almost 50 regular season sacks last year and only 14 of them came from Suggs.  Obviously 14 is a LOT of sacks for one player, but it means that the rest of defensive players, including young standouts such as Paul Kruger and Pernell McPhee, are making a rather significant collective contribution of 34 sacks.  The previous year the Ravens totalled 27 sacks and 9 of them came from Suggs...so let's think of the 2011 season as a giant leap forward in pass-rushing.
       It's difficult to predict just how much of an impact Suggs' absence will have on the Ravens or how well Upshaw will perform in his place.  Will McPhee and Kruger get to quarterbacks as easily without Suggs occupying the blocks of 2-3 opposing linemen? Will Sergio Kindle finally get a chance to become the pass-rusher that we thought he would be?  These all have yet to be seen, but the solidified elite Ravens secondary will certainly allow the new defensive coordinator Dean Pees to send more blitzers on passing downs to generate pressure without the 2012 Defensive Player of the Year.  Let us also not forget that the true defensive coordinator (#52) will still be on the field.  Players and coordinators come and go, but somehow Ray has kept the Ravens defense elite for over a decade no matter who he's surrounded by, and we shouldn't expect 2012 to be any different. As always, GO RAVENS!

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

RAVENS DRAFT ANALYSIS PT. 2

Let's dive right back into the draft analysis:

CHRISTIAN THOMPSON, FS- This pick is much better than I think most fans probably assume.  Christian Thompson has already been mentored by Ed Reed for months now, and that gives him a huge advantage over most other safeties in this draft.  Lardarius Webb has been mentored by Ed Reed for the last few years, and the ball hawking star corner attributes his recent explosion of production to Ed Reed's teaching.  Thompson not only has the benefit of guidance from the greatest free safety of all time, he also has the physical talent to help convert the knowledge he gains into big plays on the field.  Thompson ran the fastest 40 time of any safety at the combine (4.50), and he bench pressed 18 reps with 225, which was the same number as Peter Konz (kinda glad the Ravens didn't pick him, by the way).  Thompson has good enough size to cover most receivers in the NFL (6'0", 211 pounds), and he tackles well against the pass.  He doesn't have the experience against tough competition that a top rated safety such as Mark Baron or Harrison Smith possesses, but he has the speed and athleticism to contribute immediately on special teams, and I have a strong hunch that it won't take long for him to turn into another Webb under the tutelage of number 20.

ASA JACKSON, CB- Jackson's combine stats are just a hair better than Christian Thompson's in a couple of notable ways.  He ran his official 40 in 4.49 seconds and performed 19 reps with 225 pounds despite weighing 20 pounds less than Thompson.  Asa Jackson is 5'10 and 191 pounds, and he also comes from a small school, Cal Poly in San Luis Obispo.  Jackson will certainly add to the already fairly deep pool of Ravens corner backs, but he was most likely selected to serve as a return specialist to spare the knee ligaments of Lardarius Webb.  At least for now, punt and kick returner would be a great job for Jackson.  His highlights show him to have good down-field vision and hands as he turns interceptions and forced fumbles into long runs: ASA JACKSON HIGHLIGHTS.  Jackson also displays some impressive tackling intensity for a guy who weighs under 200 pounds.  This is a solid 5th round pick and helps to fill a special teams need.

TOMMY STREETER, WR- This pick made me more pumped and excited than just about any 6th round pick initially ever has.  I had clamored for months that the Ravens should go out and get Stephen Hill because of his blinding speed and height.  I talked about what a tall deep threat could do for an offense that already has a quarterback with one of the strongest arms in football and one of the best young deep threats in the NFL.  In hindsight, taking Stephen Hill with the Ravens' first pick would have been risky even though it may have ultimately been quite productive.  Hill had limited experience in college with only 29 catches, and he probably wouldn't have been able to contribute immediately.  Courtney Upshaw, on the other hand will most likely be able to contribute from the start.  Tommy Streeter also may not be an immediate contributor....BUT THE RAVENS SNAGGED HIM IN THE 6TH ROUND!!!  It doesn't matter that Streeter may not an immediate impact player because he was such a low risk, late pick.  He did drop some passes at the combine, but he caught plenty more in actual games last year as a starting wideout for the Miami Hurricanes.  Take a look at some of his most impressive moments: TOMMY STREETER HIGHLIGHTS.   Streeter almost as fast as Hill and even an inch taller at 6'5".  As you can see, he gets behind defenses and catches passes that are far too high for a corner to reach.  He ran his official combine 40 in 4.40 seconds, which is right on par with Torrey Smith's from 2011.  Streeter fills a Ravens need for a speedy, big bodied receiver, and there are no longer any notable free agents of that kind on the market.   I don't think it'll be long before Touchdown Tommy becomes a household name in the greater Baltimore area.

 DEANGELO TYSON, DL- Taking a defensive lineman in the final round of the draft wasn't a total shock to me as the Ravens lost Cory Redding and Brandon McKinney in free agency to the Chuck Pagano and the Colts.  Tyson is an impressive physical specimen at 6'2", 315 pounds.  He ran his 40 yard dash in an impressive 5.0 seconds and bench pressed a strong 30 reps of 225 pounds. Tyson has a good work ethic to compliment his athleticism and strength.  His work ethic will most likely be a huge factor in his role with the team.  This pick isn't a huge steal, but it's solid and addresses depth concerns left by departed veterans.

PURPLE NIGHTMARE'S OVERALL DRAFT GRADE

     I don't think you can please everyone in any given year with a draft.  A draft is about choosing a handful of players from a group of hundreds.  Eric DeCosta remarked this morning on 105.7 that there was similar criticism from fans after the 2007 draft when the Ravens picked Ben Grubbs, Le'Ron McClain, and Marshall Yanda among others.  DeCosta pointed out, however, that all three of the aforementioned picks subsequently became pro-bowlers...think about that for a second. The 2011 draft proved better than expected as Pernell McPhee turned out to be a total monster on the field and Torrey Smith, despite heavy early criticism, set a franchise rookie record and led the team with 7 receiving touchdowns.  I would argue that many fans are so worried, hurt, and offended by the Ravens trading out of the first round that they will criticize just about anyone that Ozzie chooses from the second round on.  Many fans also get nervous and cringe every time a good player is picked by another team.
     If you are one of those people who panicked just because the Patriots got Donta Hightower or because the Steelers got David DeCastro, please understand that Ravens cannot pick all of the players you want in the draft.  There are far too many college programs and players that come out of them for the average fan to be truly aware of all of the talent in the draft.  Most fans become immediately enamored with players from big football schools whose games are widely televised.  Sometimes being a part of a good program will seriously maximize a player's NFL potential from a developmental standpoint.  Sometimes, however, a big name player looked good during college BECAUSE he was a part of a great college system and may have been surrounded by talented teammates and intelligent coaches.  In those cases, that player that you pined after and cursed your team for not picking up ultimately ends up being a total bust.
    The bottom line is that the Ravens are great evaluators of individual talent and potential.  They're able to put players into the context of the system they played in during college and determine how they'll fit into the Ravens' scheme.  I'm quite confident that the Ravens picked the best available player in each round that filled a need on their roster.  I still trust in Ozzie, and I think his patience is what makes him contrast so starkly with whoever it is that was responsible for mortgaging the Redskins' draft future away for the next few years simply to move up 4 spots in the first round.  Please note that I'm not saying that RG3 won't be a great player, but please think about what they gave up to move up FOUR SPOTS IN THE FIRST ROUND!!
     Anyway, Upshaw was a steal in the second round, Osemele and Gradkowski are both safer and less risky picks than the injury-prone Peter Konz, Pierce will be a good #2 behind Ray Rice even if he was picked a round too early, Thompson will add speed and depth behind Ed Reed, Jackson will provide a boost to special teams, Tommy Streeter could reveal himself to be a total draft gem sooner than many might think, and Tyson could see some playing time with his work ethic and intensity.

I give the 2012 Ravens draft a solid A overall for adding talent and physicality in every position of need on their team without taking huge, costly risks. As always GO RAVENS!!!