For all the criticism the Ravens coaching staff has received over the past 5 seasons following Super Bowl glory, it appears as though few appreciate what John Harbaugh and his crew have managed to accomplish down the stretch of what appeared to be an absolutely snake-bitten season from the beginning. Losing both starting offensive guards, a starting slot corner, a starting running back, a starting tight end, and having a starting quarterback with a back injury is not exactly how the Ravens coaching staff envisioned the beginning of the 2017 season. With a 4-5 record going into the bye week, it was difficult for many to imagine the Ravens possibly earning a playoff berth. Now there is one game standing between Baltimore post-season excitement. Oh, and Joe Flacco? Yeah he's back to his old late season form--imagine that.
Joe Flacco's consistently efficient recent production has demonstrated just how much of a role injury, not his own apathy, played in the rough first half of the 2017. It also demonstrates how tough Flacco is for playing though a season of quarterback hits despite what must've been a rather painful back issue. Thankfully, every self-purported expert that called into sports talk radio or commented online with some statement to the effect of "you know a back issue never goes away" was unaware that the back is a large, complex part of the body with a host of different possible injuries. Some back issues can stay with someone for years if not forever to some degree, but Flacco's injury could have been simply a muscular strain that took a few months to fully heal. Whatever his injury might have been, Joe Flacco appears to have no observable lingering symptoms as he has gone from throwing 8 touchdowns and 11 interceptions before the bye week to throwing 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions FOLLOWING the bye week.
Flacco's improved play has been a major factor in the Ravens' late-season surge, but a ton of credit needs to be given to an offensive line with new starters at 4 out of 5 positions this season, and a pair of running backs who were either cast away or largely forgotten before the season began. The one-two punch of Alex Collins and Buck Allen has made many fans forget that last season featured two totally different backs in Kenneth Dixon and Terrence West. Buck Allen, despite proving himself an impressive starter in 2015 after Justin Forsett broke his arm, found himself the off man out in 2016 behind Dixon and West. A couple of injuries later, Buck has made it back on the field, and he's been good enough to prompt the Ravens to keep Terrence West on the bench for many weeks now. Even more surprising than Buck Allen has been the explosive play of the Ravens' starting running back, Alex Collins. Collins was cut by the Seahawks during the preseason, and I'm sure nearly every football fan in Seattle is wondering how on earth their beloved team could have made such a blunderous mistake. Collins has amassed 895 rushing yards on only 192 carries with 5 touchdowns. This shifty, explosive tailback could finish with close to or just over 1000 rushing yards in the regular season with one more big day on the ground.
Sunday could, in fact, be a big day for Alex Collins. The Cincinnati Bengals rank 31st in the league in run defense with an average of 128.5 rushing yards allowed per game. In the first week of the season, the Ravens controlled the clock in Cincinnati by putting together time consuming, methodical drives that included little or no passes thrown. It didn't matter that the Bengals knew the Ravens planned to run the football--they simply couldn't stop it. Last week the Bengals put on a heroic display at home against a Lions team with an explosive pass offense but a rushing attack that ranks dead last in the league with an average of only 78 yards per game on the ground. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Bengals were able to find a way to force mistakes from a team with a one-dimensional offense. It also should not come as a shock that Cincy was able to put up 26 points on a Lions defense that ranks 24th in the league in yards allowed as well as 25th in the league in points allowed per game. Unfortunately for the Bengals, the Baltimore Ravens are not the Detroit Lions.
Last Saturday's uncomfortably close game against the Colts was likely the result of rather sloppy weather conditions and not a reflection of the Ravens current strength as a team. The Colts actually played a handful of other playoff contending teams closely this season including losses by less than a touchdown to the Steelers, Titans, and Bills. The Colts also only lost to the Bengals in Cincinnati by a single point two months ago. There was a time this season where it appeared as though the Bengals might have had a fighting chance to make a late push for the playoffs. That chance came crashing down the Steelers handed the Bengals a crushing defeat that took both a physical as well as an emotional toll on the team. The centerpiece of the Bengals defense, Vontaze Burfict, was knocked out of the game by a somewhat overenthusiastic JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Cincinnati suddenly couldn't stop the run to save its season. After losing 23-20 to the Steelers, the Bengals allowed Jordan Howard of the Bears to rush for 147 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-7 beat-down.
The Bengals didn't fare any better the following week as they were absolutely suffocated by the Vikings defense in a 34-7 rout to eliminate Cincinnati from the slightest hope of playoff contention. Now Cincy has to go on the road and face a Ravens team hell-bent on doing nothing more right now than erasing all doubts with a regular season finale win at home to send themselves into the playoffs. Not only did the Ravens blank the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season, but they've gotten better by leaps and bounds since that point. How much better are the Ravens? Well they've gone from scoring 18.56 points per game and allowing 21.14 points per game over their first 7 games to scoring 29.75 points per game and allowing 15.5 points per game over the last 8 games of the season. That means that the Ravens went from outscored by opponents by almost 2.5 points per game to outscoring opponents over 14 points per game. If that doesn't demonstrate a massive improvement from the first to second half of the season, then I don't know what would.
John Harbaugh may not be a schematic guru, and his clock management has been bewilderingly poor on countless occasions over the past decade, but his ability to keep a group motivated and driven is exceeded by no one in this league. Harbaugh has helped foster an environment where players can be themselves, and they enjoy their time in Baltimore so much that they often gush to free agent friends of theirs to come to Charm City to see exactly what it means to be a Raven. No one is going to accuse Harbaugh of being a tactical genius like Bill Belichick, and his win-loss record as a coach since winning a Super Bowl has been resoundingly mediocre. Harbaugh has, nevertheless, urged his men onward with a clear goal in their sights. The Ravens locker room could have been consumed with feelings of hopelessness after going 4-5 before the bye week, but Harbaugh challenged his players to ask themselves "why not us?" in reference to the idea that they could get hot and win 6 of their last 7 games to get to the benchmark 10-6 record that typically wins teams at least a wildcard berth in the AFC.
Now the Ravens stand one game away from achieving their regular season goal, and nothing, not the cold, and DEFINITELY not the Bengals, will stop them. Without Jimmy Smith on the field, it's difficult to predict another shutout, but the Ravens feast on teams with weak run defenses, and there's just about no one worse against the run in the NFL than the Cincinnati Bengals. Now let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 17 PICKS
PACKERS AT LIONS- Few things are more depressing than a game that features two teams eliminated from playoff contention. This game simply doesn't matter, but I expect the Lions to take out their frustrations from last week against the Rodgersless Packers. LIONS 31-23
TEXANS AT COLTS- The good news for Texans fans is that their starting quarterback next season will be a beast. The bad news is that it's not next season yet. The Texans won't be able to do nearly enough with their 3rd string quarterback, so I'm giving a slight edge to the home team in Chuck Pagano's farewell to Indianapolis. COLTS 20-17
BEARS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings can't rest their starters this week because their loss to the Panthers earlier this season means that the 11-4 Panthers could possibly take their 2-seed spot if Minnesota doesn't win their final game. The Vikings starters will get rest, but it will come next week instead of this week. VIKINGS 27-14
JETS AT PATRIOTS- James Harrison isn't the player he was 10 years ago, but he'll give at least somewhat of a defensive boost to a Patriots team desperately in need of a strong presence off the edge. The Jets have no reason to even try to win this game as another win only likely hurts their draft order. PATRIOTS 33-20
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- The last time these teams met was a miserably boring matchup on Thanksgiving. This game might be just as bad, and the overall outcome shouldn't change either. REDSKINS 24-21
COWBOYS AT EAGLES- Tough to imagine the Eagles having too much to play for after they already clinched the first seed in the playoffs. I assume they'll bench their starters and kick the tires on their previously injured draft pick, Sidney Jones. If Jones shows out against the Cowboys, he could ultimately be a major factor in the Eagles' quest to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since Donovan McNabb led them. The Cowboys' playoff hopes came crashing down last week with their loss to the Seahawks, but I have a hard time believing Jerry Jones won't want to see his guys end on a high note--even if it is against mostly backups. COWBOYS 21-13
BROWNS AT STEELERS- The Steelers don't believe the Jets have any real chance to beat the Patriots, so Mike Tomlin has elected to sit his starters against the winless Browns to both minimize the chance to further injuries and give Big Ben and company some invaluable rest. If the Steelers face the Patriots in the post-season, it will almost certainly be in Foxborough, but at least they'll be relatively well rested when they head up there. I'm not positive about how many starting Steelers will sit this game out. Landry Jones could still win this game, but a healthy Steelers team only barely edged the Browns earlier this season. The Browns have already clinched the first round pick in the draft, so they should be motivated to win and end their season on SOME kind of high note. BROWNS 24-20
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- These two teams played one another in an extremely close game earlier this season with the Panthers coming out on top 20-17. The Falcons desperately need to win to clinch the final wildcard spot, but they'll do so possibly without Pro Bowl center Alex Mack as he's dealing with a calf strain. The Panthers would also like nothing more than to keep a divisional rival out of the post-season while also potentially leapfrogging the Rams or Saints or both in the event that either or both teams loses this week. The Rams are reportedly set to rest their starters against San Francisco, and that would mean the Panthers could get to at least the 4th seed if they pounce on the Falcons. Carolina has been on a scoring tear as of late, and their defensive line should give Matt Ryan major problems with Alex Mack out or playing injured. PANTHERS 23-20
CHIEFS AT BRONCOS- The Chiefs have clinched their division and will sit their starters this week. This will give Brock Osweiler another chance at an impassioned speech for his teammates to ignore, but the Broncos will want to take any win they can get at this point. BRONCOS 24-10
JAGUARS AT TITANS- The Jaguars don't want to drop two games in a row going into the playoffs, and they'd prefer not to let a divisional rival squeak in...especially not a divisional rival that beat them 37-16 earlier this season. Allen Hurns returns this week to help provide and offensive boost while Marquise Lee is out. The Titans have lost three straight close games coming into this matchup, and its difficult to imagine that a rather banged up Titans team will be able to move the ball nearly as well at this point in the season. JAGUARS 28-24
49ERS AT RAMS- Rams are resting their starters. 49ERS 38-17
BILLS AT DOLPHINS- The Bills must win to go to the playoffs, and they just beat the Dolphins two weeks ago. Something tells me this game will be quite a bit closer though. BILLS 24-21
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- The Raiders have absolutely nothing to play for, and the Chargers need to win to have an outside chance to get into the playoffs with some help from other teams. CHARGERS 34-14
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS- The 12th man will be thumping louder than at any time this season. Russell Wilson will do whatever it takes to win this game. SEAHAWKS 31-21
SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS- The Saints will be all business. They need a win to ensure a division title. The Bucs simply need to hit the restart button and try again next season. SAINTS 35-23
BENGALS AT RAVENS- Several years of watching A.J. Green make big plays on the Ravens has left a lot of fans in Baltimore always terrified that Green will continue to do so. What many of them fail to realize is exactly how good Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu were to take pressure off Green. When those players left before the 2016 season along with offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, the Bengals offense was never the same. A.J. Green is still a great wide receiver, but he doesn't have any help. Tyler Eifert is done for the season, John Ross is done and he barely ever even got started, and Joe Mixon hasn't been nearly as good as one might have expected. The Ravens will dial up a ferocious pass rush against Red Rocket, and Giovanni Bernard won't be enough to save a Bengals offense that has scored 17.12 points per game over their last 8 games. During that 8 game stretch, the Bengals defense has allowed an average of 23.375 points per game, and that means that Cincinnati is losing by about a touchdown per game. The Ravens won't hold the Bengals scoreless, but they'll dominate the time of possession with a strong presence on the ground, and they'll hold the Bengals to field goals at critical moments. RAVENS 27-16
I COULD BE GIVING THE BENGALS TOO MUCH CREDIT, BUT IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE BALTIMORE TOTALLY SHUTTING THE BENGALS DOWN AGAIN. A WIN IS ALL WE CAN ASK FOR ON A FRIGID NEW YEAR'S EVE.
AS ALWAYS AND ESPECIALLY NOW
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, December 31, 2017
Sunday, December 24, 2017
WEEK 16 NFL PREDICTIONS (SUNDAY AND MONDAY GAMES)
The rain made for a sloppy game on the part of the Ravens defense on Saturday night. Frank Gore looked like he was 10 years younger at times as he rumbled and dove acrobatically for the Colts' lone touchdown of the game. Broken tackles and a pair of dropped interceptions turned what could have been a defensively dominant outing into a one-score game with only a few minutes left in the 4th quarter.
I'm hesitant to characterize the Ravens' offensive performance as disappointing because they moved the ball all evening with relative ease. It's regrettable that 3 of their drives ended in field goals, but it's possible that they might have been more aggressive in the redzone if they weren't facing a team that lost 9 of its last 10 games. It was encouraging to see Flacco distribute the ball to virtually all of his available receiving weapons, and it was even MORE encouraging to see them make rather spectacular grabs in driving rain. Getting use of Michael Campanaro, Maxx Williams, Danny Woodhead, Chris Moore, and even Breshad Perriman means that teams can simply key in on Mike Wallace to stifle the Ravens' passing attack.
I'd like to think that a shaky performance in sloppy weather was simply due to the weather, because the Ravens defensive line looked atrocious, and the offensive line struggled horribly to open up running lanes for Alex Collins. It's possible that Chuck Pagano had enough schematic familiarity with the Ravens offense to give his ragtag crew a defensive blueprint for stopping the run. Let's hope that the physical struggles up front were simply an aberration and not indicative of what the Ravens will accomplish in the trenches in the weeks to come. My 34-0 score prediction was unquestionably way off, but a win is a win and the Ravens have a high likelihood of reaching the playoffs with a 5-seed. The Ravens certainly aren't the first playoff-bound team that the Colts played closely as of late. The Colts took the Bills into overtime in the snow in Buffalo, they lose by 4 points to the Titans, and they took the Steelers right down to the wire in a 20-17 loss. Their 3-12 record may not indicate it, but the Colts are definitely capable of giving a quality team a scare.
Sunday and Monday offer the opportunity to pay attention to some key games that concern the Ravens in the AFC playoff race. The Titans play the Rams, and if the Titans lose to the Rams this week and the Jaguars next week, they will likely miss the playoffs entirely and the Ravens clinch a playoff berth even if they drop their final game at home next week against the Bengals. The Bills are also still in wildcard contention, but they face the Patriots today in Foxborough. The Pats soundly humiliated the Bills 23-3 in Buffalo weeks ago, and it's highly likely that the outcome won't tremendously different in New England today. If the Bills lose to the Dolphins in Miami next week, the Ravens also clinch the final wildcard spot even they don't beat the Bengals. Let's hope it doesn't come to that because the 6-seed is not what the Ravens want.
It appears as though whichever team finishes with the 6-seed will have to travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars defense in the wildcard round. I have no doubt the Ravens would put together a more competitive performance against the Jaguars in a second meeting, but the Jags have arguably the best corner tandem in the NFL, and their defensive line is fierce--let them be another team's problem in the first round.
Another major advantage of securing the 5th seed over the 6th seed is that the Ravens would likely face the Steelers in the second round of the playoffs if they manage to beat the Chiefs first. John Harbaugh and his guys know full well that they're capable of going into Pittsburgh and putting on a show after just barely losing 39-38 a few weeks ago. The big advantage this time around is that Antonio Brown would be coming off of a rather significant calf tear. Without Antonio Brown, the Steelers are an entirely different team. They do still have a nice group of receivers with Martavis Bryant, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Eli Rogers, but Brown is the one piece that is capable of putting a figurative dagger in the heart of the Ravens defense. Without Antonio Brown, it's difficult to imagine the Steelers even coming close to beating the Ravens in their last meeting. It is, thus, vitally important that the Ravens secure the 5-seed to put them on a tract to face the Chiefs and Steelers instead of the Jaguars and Patriots.
WEEK 16 NFL PICKS
BROWNS AT BEARS- The Bears SHOULD be able to put this one away in the end. The Browns are simply too careless with the football. BEARS 24-17
LIONS AT BENGALS- For the last two weeks the Bengals have appeared too decimated by injuries and crushed by the news that their head coach is going to leave at the end of the season. LIONS 31-10
RAMS AT TITANS- Mariota simply isn't healthy enough to lead his team to victory against the Rams in their current condition. RAMS 34-20
DOLPHINS AT CHIEFS- You never know what you're going to get with Dolphins as Jay Cutler is capable of putting up a great game but also capable of looking lost and concussed without incurring a major head injury. If this game were in Miami I would give the Fins a great shot, but the Chiefs seem to be hitting their stride at the right time. Don't let two consecutive games against divisional rivals fool you, though; the Chiefs still aren't a great team. This one will be close. CHIEFS 23-20
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- The animosity aimed at Rob Gronkowski could very well lead to players blatantly trying to injure him today, but there's little reason to believe the Bills can win in Foxborough--no matter how angry they might be.
FALCONS AT SAINTS- The Falcons could supplant the Saints as NFC South division leader with a win in New Orleans. They found a way to stifle the vaunted Saints offense weeks ago in Atlanta, but the dirty birds get a fairly sizeable defensive edge from playing at home, and being on the road will tip the scales in favor of the Saints. The Saints are 6-1 at home this season. This should still be a great game. SAINTS 31-28
CHARGERS AT JETS- The Chargers are incredibly banged up, but they SHOULD still have enough to beat the Jets. The Jets will not have Muhammad Wilkerson playing, and Philip Rivers will move methodically down the field at the right times. Wouldn't surprise me to see the Jets make a game of this though. CHARGERS 28-23
BRONCOS AT REDSKINS- This is a totally irrelevant game, but I'm going out on a limp and saying the Broncos continue their recent upswing in production with Osweiler at QB. BRONCOS 26-17
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- The Bucs are the biggest disappointment in the league this season given the talent they have. PANTHERS 33-20
JAGUARS AT 49ERS- This game is no longer a slam dunk, but defense travels well, and I can't imagine the 49ers will be able to move the ball with the Jaguars corners and pass rushers clamping down. JAGUARS 27-21
SEAHAWKS AT COWBOYS- The Seahawks defense is simply too decimated to stop the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliot back. The boys will control the line of scrimmage and the clock. Russell Wilson will give a heroic effort, but they won't be able to stop the Cowboys from scoring on nearly every drive. COWBOYS 30-28
GIANTS AT CARDINALS- Eh, who knows, who cares, right? Just kidding--kind of. CARDINALS 17-14
STEELERS AT TEXANS- Antonio Brown's absence won't be enough to turn the Steelers into a team that would lose to Houston at this point in the year. Big Ben still has enough weapons and enough protection from Clowney with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. STEELERS 24-7
RAIDERS AT EAGLES- The Raiders have little defense to speak of this season, and that won't bode well for them in a cross-country trip to face the team with the best record in the NFL. Without Carson Wentz, I no longer believe the Eagles have a great shot at winning the Super Bowl or even getting there, but I do believe they'll easily dispose of the disappointing Raiders. EAGLES 38-21
MERRY CHRISTMAS, FOOTBALL FANS!
THIS TRULY IS THE MOST WONDERFUL TIME OF THE YEAR!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
I'm hesitant to characterize the Ravens' offensive performance as disappointing because they moved the ball all evening with relative ease. It's regrettable that 3 of their drives ended in field goals, but it's possible that they might have been more aggressive in the redzone if they weren't facing a team that lost 9 of its last 10 games. It was encouraging to see Flacco distribute the ball to virtually all of his available receiving weapons, and it was even MORE encouraging to see them make rather spectacular grabs in driving rain. Getting use of Michael Campanaro, Maxx Williams, Danny Woodhead, Chris Moore, and even Breshad Perriman means that teams can simply key in on Mike Wallace to stifle the Ravens' passing attack.
I'd like to think that a shaky performance in sloppy weather was simply due to the weather, because the Ravens defensive line looked atrocious, and the offensive line struggled horribly to open up running lanes for Alex Collins. It's possible that Chuck Pagano had enough schematic familiarity with the Ravens offense to give his ragtag crew a defensive blueprint for stopping the run. Let's hope that the physical struggles up front were simply an aberration and not indicative of what the Ravens will accomplish in the trenches in the weeks to come. My 34-0 score prediction was unquestionably way off, but a win is a win and the Ravens have a high likelihood of reaching the playoffs with a 5-seed. The Ravens certainly aren't the first playoff-bound team that the Colts played closely as of late. The Colts took the Bills into overtime in the snow in Buffalo, they lose by 4 points to the Titans, and they took the Steelers right down to the wire in a 20-17 loss. Their 3-12 record may not indicate it, but the Colts are definitely capable of giving a quality team a scare.
Sunday and Monday offer the opportunity to pay attention to some key games that concern the Ravens in the AFC playoff race. The Titans play the Rams, and if the Titans lose to the Rams this week and the Jaguars next week, they will likely miss the playoffs entirely and the Ravens clinch a playoff berth even if they drop their final game at home next week against the Bengals. The Bills are also still in wildcard contention, but they face the Patriots today in Foxborough. The Pats soundly humiliated the Bills 23-3 in Buffalo weeks ago, and it's highly likely that the outcome won't tremendously different in New England today. If the Bills lose to the Dolphins in Miami next week, the Ravens also clinch the final wildcard spot even they don't beat the Bengals. Let's hope it doesn't come to that because the 6-seed is not what the Ravens want.
It appears as though whichever team finishes with the 6-seed will have to travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars defense in the wildcard round. I have no doubt the Ravens would put together a more competitive performance against the Jaguars in a second meeting, but the Jags have arguably the best corner tandem in the NFL, and their defensive line is fierce--let them be another team's problem in the first round.
Another major advantage of securing the 5th seed over the 6th seed is that the Ravens would likely face the Steelers in the second round of the playoffs if they manage to beat the Chiefs first. John Harbaugh and his guys know full well that they're capable of going into Pittsburgh and putting on a show after just barely losing 39-38 a few weeks ago. The big advantage this time around is that Antonio Brown would be coming off of a rather significant calf tear. Without Antonio Brown, the Steelers are an entirely different team. They do still have a nice group of receivers with Martavis Bryant, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Eli Rogers, but Brown is the one piece that is capable of putting a figurative dagger in the heart of the Ravens defense. Without Antonio Brown, it's difficult to imagine the Steelers even coming close to beating the Ravens in their last meeting. It is, thus, vitally important that the Ravens secure the 5-seed to put them on a tract to face the Chiefs and Steelers instead of the Jaguars and Patriots.
WEEK 16 NFL PICKS
BROWNS AT BEARS- The Bears SHOULD be able to put this one away in the end. The Browns are simply too careless with the football. BEARS 24-17
LIONS AT BENGALS- For the last two weeks the Bengals have appeared too decimated by injuries and crushed by the news that their head coach is going to leave at the end of the season. LIONS 31-10
RAMS AT TITANS- Mariota simply isn't healthy enough to lead his team to victory against the Rams in their current condition. RAMS 34-20
DOLPHINS AT CHIEFS- You never know what you're going to get with Dolphins as Jay Cutler is capable of putting up a great game but also capable of looking lost and concussed without incurring a major head injury. If this game were in Miami I would give the Fins a great shot, but the Chiefs seem to be hitting their stride at the right time. Don't let two consecutive games against divisional rivals fool you, though; the Chiefs still aren't a great team. This one will be close. CHIEFS 23-20
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- The animosity aimed at Rob Gronkowski could very well lead to players blatantly trying to injure him today, but there's little reason to believe the Bills can win in Foxborough--no matter how angry they might be.
FALCONS AT SAINTS- The Falcons could supplant the Saints as NFC South division leader with a win in New Orleans. They found a way to stifle the vaunted Saints offense weeks ago in Atlanta, but the dirty birds get a fairly sizeable defensive edge from playing at home, and being on the road will tip the scales in favor of the Saints. The Saints are 6-1 at home this season. This should still be a great game. SAINTS 31-28
CHARGERS AT JETS- The Chargers are incredibly banged up, but they SHOULD still have enough to beat the Jets. The Jets will not have Muhammad Wilkerson playing, and Philip Rivers will move methodically down the field at the right times. Wouldn't surprise me to see the Jets make a game of this though. CHARGERS 28-23
BRONCOS AT REDSKINS- This is a totally irrelevant game, but I'm going out on a limp and saying the Broncos continue their recent upswing in production with Osweiler at QB. BRONCOS 26-17
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- The Bucs are the biggest disappointment in the league this season given the talent they have. PANTHERS 33-20
JAGUARS AT 49ERS- This game is no longer a slam dunk, but defense travels well, and I can't imagine the 49ers will be able to move the ball with the Jaguars corners and pass rushers clamping down. JAGUARS 27-21
SEAHAWKS AT COWBOYS- The Seahawks defense is simply too decimated to stop the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliot back. The boys will control the line of scrimmage and the clock. Russell Wilson will give a heroic effort, but they won't be able to stop the Cowboys from scoring on nearly every drive. COWBOYS 30-28
GIANTS AT CARDINALS- Eh, who knows, who cares, right? Just kidding--kind of. CARDINALS 17-14
STEELERS AT TEXANS- Antonio Brown's absence won't be enough to turn the Steelers into a team that would lose to Houston at this point in the year. Big Ben still has enough weapons and enough protection from Clowney with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. STEELERS 24-7
RAIDERS AT EAGLES- The Raiders have little defense to speak of this season, and that won't bode well for them in a cross-country trip to face the team with the best record in the NFL. Without Carson Wentz, I no longer believe the Eagles have a great shot at winning the Super Bowl or even getting there, but I do believe they'll easily dispose of the disappointing Raiders. EAGLES 38-21
MERRY CHRISTMAS, FOOTBALL FANS!
THIS TRULY IS THE MOST WONDERFUL TIME OF THE YEAR!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, December 23, 2017
SATURDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 16
No team should ever be overlooked on any given day in the world of NFL football. No one should overlook a team seemingly decimated by injuries to key players, and no one should ever overlook a team with a poor record. When all is said and done, they're all still professionals, and a few mistakes made by the favored team can suddenly lead to a baffling upset. With that said, there is no good reason for the Baltimore Ravens to lose to THIS Colts team this weekend. That certainly doesn't mean it couldn't happen, but it shouldn't happen.
One thing many fans may not have noticed is the rather imposing lineup of opponents with top ranked defenses that the Ravens have faced over the course of this season. Many have focused on the absence of elite opposing quarterbacks and suggested the Ravens have had an easy schedule because of it. There is definitely merit to that argument as injuries meant that Baltimore dodged having to face Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers, but one thing the Ravens weren't able to dodge was facing the fearsome 2nd ranked Vikings defense on the road, the 3rd ranked Jaguars defense on the road, the 4th ranked Steelers defense twice, and the 8th ranked Bears defense. It's no wonder that the Ravens offense struggled early on as half of their opponents in the first half of the season were ranked in the top 10 in defense. Combine that with major injuries to the offensive line as well as Joe Flacco's back and you've got yourself a unit that unsurprisingly struggled to put points on the board.
The Indianapolis Colts do not have a top 10 defense--they don't have a top 20 defense either. They don't have a top 25 defense. The Colts rank 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per game, and they rank 31st in points allowed per game. To make matters worse for Chuck Pagano's crew, the Ravens' once-stagnant offense is now one of the most productive in the league in points scored during the second half of the season. Even on the road against the Steelers 4th ranked defense, Joe Flacco and Alex Collins led a spectacular series of drives to amass a total of 38 points which would have felt so much more triumphant if the Ravens defense hadn't allowed Antonio Brown to catch for over 200 yards.
Beyond a poor defensive ranking, the Colts will likely play unmotivated, uninspired football without many starting pieces. This game would be more useful for Indy as an evaluation/experience game for many younger players that haven't seen much time yet thus far this season rather than a serious effort to win a football game. The Colts, in fact, would suffer as a franchise by winning any games from here on out as it would affect their spot in the 2018 NFL Draft. As it stands, the 3-win are behind only the zero-win Browns and the 2-win Giants in the draft order, but winning a 4th game could put them potentially even with the Texans, Bears, Buccaneers, and 49ers who all have 4 wins on the season. Suffice it to say that this won't be an organization hell-bent on achieving a major upset today.
There is a chance that the Bengals could have more motivation to play spoiler and beat the Ravens next week, but with their available player personnel such an upset appears unlikely. The Bengals, in fact, have put so many key players on injured reserve at this point that they've been outscored 67-14 over the last two weeks. To make matters worse, the Bengals head coach, Marvin Lewis, is reportedly leaving to pursue other coaching endeavors after the season ends, and news of his upcoming departure has been tough on his players to say the least. It's difficult to rally a group to put their bodies on the line week in and week out once the players have found out that you've essentially already moved on from them mentally. Besides, even when the Bengals were mostly healthy in Week 1, the Ravens still held them scoreless in Cincinnati to kick off the season.
If there was ever a time to be zeroed in and focused, it would be over the two weeks. The Ravens have looked far from perfect this season, but they've won 5 of their last 7 games, and they appear to be hitting their stride just in time for the playoffs. Now it's just a matter of handling business and GETTING to the playoffs. The Ravens weren't fortunate enough to have circumstances where they could clinch a playoff berth with a win this week, but they appear to have an excellent shot at finishing the regular season with the 5th seen in the AFC playoff bracket. To attain this spot, the Ravens will absolutely need to win their final two games, and they will need the Bills to lose in Foxborough this week as well as the Titans to simply lose one of their final two games to either the Rams or the Jaguars. The likelihood of these things happening is high enough that Baltimore finishing with the 5th seed has been named by ESPN as the most probable playoff seeding for them.
If the Ravens finish with the 5th seed in the playoffs, they stand to face the Chiefs in Kansas City in the wildcard round, and that appears to be a far more favorable matchup for Baltimore than having to go into Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team that dominated the Ravens in London earlier this season. I am certainly getting ahead of myself here, but let's just say that the Ravens beat the Chiefs and the 6th seed loses to the Jaguars. That would presumably mean that the Ravens would then go to face the Steelers again in Pittsburgh while the Jaguars head to Foxborough to face the Patriots. The Steelers did edge the Ravens in their last meeting, but Pittsburgh has since lost its top weapon as Antonio Brown partially tore his calf muscle in the loss to the Patriots last week. The Steelers organization is optimistic that Brown will be back for the playoffs, but it's difficult to imagine he'll be back to full speed if he does end up playing. Brown's injury status as well as recently improved offensive production from the Ravens offense makes me reasonably optimistic that Joe and the boys could head into Pittsburgh and find a way to topple Big Ben and company for the first time this season--but again, I'm getting way ahead of myself right now.
It has already begun to rain in the Baltimore on the morning of this home gameday, and there are more rain showers in the forecast for the area at the time of kickoff. This could make for a sloppy, turnover-laden game; let's just hope that the turnovers favor the birds. I have enough faith in the Ravens rushing attack to trust that Alex Collins and Buck Allen will given the Ravens enough of a presence on the ground today that Joe Flacco won't be forced to air it out in sloppy conditions. If Baltimore goes up big by halftime, it might be a good idea to give Breshad Perriman some targets in the second half to see if Joe can re-establish the connection they had last season. As bad as Breshad has looked in 2017, one has to remember that every Ravens receiver looked quite bad for most of the season up until after the bye week. Since the Ravens have opened their playbook back up because of Flacco's return to health, the next two weeks might help get Perriman's confidence back up while Jeremy Maclin sits out with a knee injury. Remember that Perriman averaged over 15 yards per catch last year and made some absolutely spectacular plays. There's no reason to believe he can't contribute going forward now that Flacco is healthy.
The second game this evening is similar to the first in that it features one playoff contender versus a team that has been eliminated from the post-season race. Divisional rivalries are often quite fierce, but the fact that the Packers put Aaron Rodgers on injured reserve before this game means they're essentially conceding defeat. Brett Hundley isn't exactly useless, but if the Packers had any real motivation to win this game, they would've put one of the NFL's greatest quarterbacks on the field to face a hated foe. The Vikings have clinched the NFC North division, but they must continue to win in order to maintain their 2-seed or potentially supplant the Eagles as the 1-seed in the NFC. It is for this reason that Minnesota will be just as motivated as ever to put away a hopeless Packers team.
Stay tuned as I will post predictions for tomorrow and Monday later tonight. For now, let's take a look at today's picks!
THE PICKS
VIKINGS AT PACKERS- The Vikings have won 9 of their last 10 games, and despite recent injuries, their defense is still suffocating enough to make this a very unmerry Christmas for Packers fans. Case Keenum has played well enough to justify being the starter for the Vikings for the foreseeable future, and the Packers don't have enough in the way of defense to stop a fairly strong, balanced Vikings offense. VIKINGS 28-17
COLTS AT RAVENS- Donte Moncrief, Rashaan Melvin, Denzelle Good, Jason Vander Laan, and Brandon Williams are all ruled out for the Colts. Indy hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game in the last 5 weeks, and they've lost 8 of their last 9 games. The Colts rank 29th against the run and 30th against the pass. The Ravens haven't faced an opponent this defensively wounded and anemic since...well...pretty sure this is the worst defense they will have faced this season. Only Jeremy Maclin is sitting this one out, and this is a Ravens team laser-focused on dominating their opponent and getting out quickly and as healthy as possible to take care of business next week. Oh and Baltimore has averaged 36.33 points per game over the last 3 contests. RAVENS 34-0
FUN FACT: IF BALTIMORE SCORES 28+ POINTS PER GAME OVER THEIR FINAL TWO REGULAR SEASON MATCHUPS, 2017 WILL RANK AS THEIR 2ND MOST PRODUCTIVE SCORING SEASON IN TEAM HISTORY. IF THEY SCORE 33+ POINTS IN BOTH OF THEIR FINAL GAMES, THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST SCORING TEAM IN RAVENS HISTORY! KINDA FUNNY TO IMAGINE, RIGHT?
MERRY CHRISTMAS, EVERYONE!
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
One thing many fans may not have noticed is the rather imposing lineup of opponents with top ranked defenses that the Ravens have faced over the course of this season. Many have focused on the absence of elite opposing quarterbacks and suggested the Ravens have had an easy schedule because of it. There is definitely merit to that argument as injuries meant that Baltimore dodged having to face Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers, but one thing the Ravens weren't able to dodge was facing the fearsome 2nd ranked Vikings defense on the road, the 3rd ranked Jaguars defense on the road, the 4th ranked Steelers defense twice, and the 8th ranked Bears defense. It's no wonder that the Ravens offense struggled early on as half of their opponents in the first half of the season were ranked in the top 10 in defense. Combine that with major injuries to the offensive line as well as Joe Flacco's back and you've got yourself a unit that unsurprisingly struggled to put points on the board.
The Indianapolis Colts do not have a top 10 defense--they don't have a top 20 defense either. They don't have a top 25 defense. The Colts rank 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per game, and they rank 31st in points allowed per game. To make matters worse for Chuck Pagano's crew, the Ravens' once-stagnant offense is now one of the most productive in the league in points scored during the second half of the season. Even on the road against the Steelers 4th ranked defense, Joe Flacco and Alex Collins led a spectacular series of drives to amass a total of 38 points which would have felt so much more triumphant if the Ravens defense hadn't allowed Antonio Brown to catch for over 200 yards.
Beyond a poor defensive ranking, the Colts will likely play unmotivated, uninspired football without many starting pieces. This game would be more useful for Indy as an evaluation/experience game for many younger players that haven't seen much time yet thus far this season rather than a serious effort to win a football game. The Colts, in fact, would suffer as a franchise by winning any games from here on out as it would affect their spot in the 2018 NFL Draft. As it stands, the 3-win are behind only the zero-win Browns and the 2-win Giants in the draft order, but winning a 4th game could put them potentially even with the Texans, Bears, Buccaneers, and 49ers who all have 4 wins on the season. Suffice it to say that this won't be an organization hell-bent on achieving a major upset today.
There is a chance that the Bengals could have more motivation to play spoiler and beat the Ravens next week, but with their available player personnel such an upset appears unlikely. The Bengals, in fact, have put so many key players on injured reserve at this point that they've been outscored 67-14 over the last two weeks. To make matters worse, the Bengals head coach, Marvin Lewis, is reportedly leaving to pursue other coaching endeavors after the season ends, and news of his upcoming departure has been tough on his players to say the least. It's difficult to rally a group to put their bodies on the line week in and week out once the players have found out that you've essentially already moved on from them mentally. Besides, even when the Bengals were mostly healthy in Week 1, the Ravens still held them scoreless in Cincinnati to kick off the season.
If there was ever a time to be zeroed in and focused, it would be over the two weeks. The Ravens have looked far from perfect this season, but they've won 5 of their last 7 games, and they appear to be hitting their stride just in time for the playoffs. Now it's just a matter of handling business and GETTING to the playoffs. The Ravens weren't fortunate enough to have circumstances where they could clinch a playoff berth with a win this week, but they appear to have an excellent shot at finishing the regular season with the 5th seen in the AFC playoff bracket. To attain this spot, the Ravens will absolutely need to win their final two games, and they will need the Bills to lose in Foxborough this week as well as the Titans to simply lose one of their final two games to either the Rams or the Jaguars. The likelihood of these things happening is high enough that Baltimore finishing with the 5th seed has been named by ESPN as the most probable playoff seeding for them.
If the Ravens finish with the 5th seed in the playoffs, they stand to face the Chiefs in Kansas City in the wildcard round, and that appears to be a far more favorable matchup for Baltimore than having to go into Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team that dominated the Ravens in London earlier this season. I am certainly getting ahead of myself here, but let's just say that the Ravens beat the Chiefs and the 6th seed loses to the Jaguars. That would presumably mean that the Ravens would then go to face the Steelers again in Pittsburgh while the Jaguars head to Foxborough to face the Patriots. The Steelers did edge the Ravens in their last meeting, but Pittsburgh has since lost its top weapon as Antonio Brown partially tore his calf muscle in the loss to the Patriots last week. The Steelers organization is optimistic that Brown will be back for the playoffs, but it's difficult to imagine he'll be back to full speed if he does end up playing. Brown's injury status as well as recently improved offensive production from the Ravens offense makes me reasonably optimistic that Joe and the boys could head into Pittsburgh and find a way to topple Big Ben and company for the first time this season--but again, I'm getting way ahead of myself right now.
It has already begun to rain in the Baltimore on the morning of this home gameday, and there are more rain showers in the forecast for the area at the time of kickoff. This could make for a sloppy, turnover-laden game; let's just hope that the turnovers favor the birds. I have enough faith in the Ravens rushing attack to trust that Alex Collins and Buck Allen will given the Ravens enough of a presence on the ground today that Joe Flacco won't be forced to air it out in sloppy conditions. If Baltimore goes up big by halftime, it might be a good idea to give Breshad Perriman some targets in the second half to see if Joe can re-establish the connection they had last season. As bad as Breshad has looked in 2017, one has to remember that every Ravens receiver looked quite bad for most of the season up until after the bye week. Since the Ravens have opened their playbook back up because of Flacco's return to health, the next two weeks might help get Perriman's confidence back up while Jeremy Maclin sits out with a knee injury. Remember that Perriman averaged over 15 yards per catch last year and made some absolutely spectacular plays. There's no reason to believe he can't contribute going forward now that Flacco is healthy.
The second game this evening is similar to the first in that it features one playoff contender versus a team that has been eliminated from the post-season race. Divisional rivalries are often quite fierce, but the fact that the Packers put Aaron Rodgers on injured reserve before this game means they're essentially conceding defeat. Brett Hundley isn't exactly useless, but if the Packers had any real motivation to win this game, they would've put one of the NFL's greatest quarterbacks on the field to face a hated foe. The Vikings have clinched the NFC North division, but they must continue to win in order to maintain their 2-seed or potentially supplant the Eagles as the 1-seed in the NFC. It is for this reason that Minnesota will be just as motivated as ever to put away a hopeless Packers team.
Stay tuned as I will post predictions for tomorrow and Monday later tonight. For now, let's take a look at today's picks!
THE PICKS
VIKINGS AT PACKERS- The Vikings have won 9 of their last 10 games, and despite recent injuries, their defense is still suffocating enough to make this a very unmerry Christmas for Packers fans. Case Keenum has played well enough to justify being the starter for the Vikings for the foreseeable future, and the Packers don't have enough in the way of defense to stop a fairly strong, balanced Vikings offense. VIKINGS 28-17
COLTS AT RAVENS- Donte Moncrief, Rashaan Melvin, Denzelle Good, Jason Vander Laan, and Brandon Williams are all ruled out for the Colts. Indy hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game in the last 5 weeks, and they've lost 8 of their last 9 games. The Colts rank 29th against the run and 30th against the pass. The Ravens haven't faced an opponent this defensively wounded and anemic since...well...pretty sure this is the worst defense they will have faced this season. Only Jeremy Maclin is sitting this one out, and this is a Ravens team laser-focused on dominating their opponent and getting out quickly and as healthy as possible to take care of business next week. Oh and Baltimore has averaged 36.33 points per game over the last 3 contests. RAVENS 34-0
FUN FACT: IF BALTIMORE SCORES 28+ POINTS PER GAME OVER THEIR FINAL TWO REGULAR SEASON MATCHUPS, 2017 WILL RANK AS THEIR 2ND MOST PRODUCTIVE SCORING SEASON IN TEAM HISTORY. IF THEY SCORE 33+ POINTS IN BOTH OF THEIR FINAL GAMES, THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST SCORING TEAM IN RAVENS HISTORY! KINDA FUNNY TO IMAGINE, RIGHT?
MERRY CHRISTMAS, EVERYONE!
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, December 16, 2017
WEEK 15 NFL PREDICTIONS
We have discussed for weeks that it wasn't absolutely necessary for the Ravens to beat the Steelers to go to the playoffs, but MAN that was tough to watch 11 point and 9 point leads slip away in the forth quarter. The absences of Jimmy Smith and Ryan Shazier proved disturbingly profound as the Ravens ran all over the Steelers, and the Steelers passed for an ungodly number of yards against a Ravens secondary that hadn't allowed even just a 300 yard passer all season. Unlike last Christmas' last second gut-wrenching loss in Pittsburgh, this season's gut-wrenching loss does not knock the Ravens out of playoff contention. It does hurt the Ravens odds of being able to manufacture a Week 17 semi-bye week in which they could rest their starters against the Bengals. There are, however, still some circumstances that would allow for that to happen, and they're not tremendously unlikely.
A Colts win last weekend in the snow over a weakened Bills team would have gone a long way to potentially allowing the Ravens to clinch a wildcard spot by simply winning their next two games. Sadly, however, Adam Vinatieri missed what would have been a game-winning field goal as time expired in regulation, and the Bills ended up winning the game in overtime. Now Buffalo technically possesses the final wildcard spot for the moment, and they find themselves staring down 3 divisional matchups to finish their season. The return of Tyrod Taylor will certainly give the Bills an offensive boost, but they face the Dolphins in Buffalo, the Patriots, and then the Dolphins in Miami to finish the season. No one is going to accuse the Dolphins of being playoff contenders at this point, but they have looked better as of late with a dominant 35-9 win over the Broncos two weeks ago and a surprising 27-20 win over the Patriots last weekend. If the Dolphins can continue their recent momentum with a win this weekend in Buffalo, the implications would be tremendous for Baltimore. One would then have to assume the Patriots would take care of the Bills easily in Foxborough, and then the best Buffalo could do is finish the season 8-8. Every Ravens fan, thus, needs to root hard for the Dolphins this weekend.
Beyond a Dolphins win this weekend, the Ravens would need either the Chiefs or Chargers to lose their next two games in order to potentially be able to rest their starters in Week 17. The fortunate thing for the Ravens is that the Chiefs and Chargers play one another this weekend, and that guarantees that at least ONE of them will lose. The Chiefs could easily lose their next two games against a red-hot Chargers team and a Dolphins team that has come on as of late. If the Chiefs find a way to beat the Chargers, Philip Rivers and his crew will then have to go back out to East coast to face a Jets team that is has a poor road record but goes toe to toe with contenders at home in New Jersey. The odds appear much stronger that the Chiefs, not the Chargers, would drop their next two games, but we'll know Saturday night whether or not Andy Reid and his crew can take a big step towards righting the ship in time to save their season.
The Titans are one of the other wildcard contenders, but at 8-5 with a head-to-head win over the Ravens, the Titans own a tiebreaker over Baltimore if both teams finish the season 9-7. Even if the Titans lose their next two games and drop to 8-7 (as they very well could) their losses would not afford the Ravens the ability to rest their starters in the final week of the regular season. This is because the Titans and Ravens final games are at the same time on the same day. If the Titans played at 1:00 and the Ravens played at 4:25 or 8:30, then the Ravens would know if the Titans had lost out ahead of time and could sit their starters if the Titans lost out. That, unfortunately, will not be the case. The remainder of the Titans' season should, however, still be monitored as Tennessee actually faces three tough games, and if they lose out, could afford the Ravens the ability to snag a wildcard spot even if they drop one of their final three games.
Tennessee has dropped 2 of their last 4 games, and Marcus Mariota's health has played a major factor in the recent dip in production. Last week's perplexing 12-9 loss to the irrelevant Cardinals in conjunction with three dangerous remaining games means that the Titans, once a shoe-in for at least a wildcard spot, now face the possibility of being eliminated entirely. The Titans travel across the country this week to face a revamped 49ers team that has won 3 of its last 4 games with recent acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. If the Titans lose to the 49ers this weekend, they will travel back home to face a ferocious Rams team, and then they'll face a highly motivated Jaguars for the regular season finale. As poorly as the Titans have played as of late, it's entirely possible that they lose all three of these games, and that would dramatically increase the Ravens' odds of squeaking into the playoffs if they finish the regular season 9-7.
Baltimore can ensure a playoff berth by simply winning all three of their remaining games. Losing to the Steelers 39-38 was painful, but it demonstrated that Marty Mornhinweg has truly got the Ravens offense back on track. The defensive letdown was worrisome, but the mistakes that led to the loss are entirely correctable. I doubt there's any Ravens fan that came away from that game thinking that the Ravens wouldn't have a great shot to beat the Steelers if the teams met once again in the post-season. With that said, if the Ravens hope to be physically ready to even GET to the second round of the playoffs to face the Steelers or possibly the Patriots, it would be tremendously helpful to be able to rest their starters in Week 17. Baltimore fans should, therefore, root for both the Bills, and Chiefs or Chargers to lose their next two games, and the Ravens, meanwhile, absolutely MUST handle their own business against a winless Browns team and a Colts team that appears at this point to have given up.
WEEK 15 NFL PICKS
SATURDAY NIGHT
BEARS AT LIONS- It's difficult to imagine a desperate and not-yet-totally-eliminated Lions team losing at home to a Bears team that they beat on the road earlier this season. Sure, the Bears have had 3 rather perplexing wins over AFC North teams and one surprisingly dominant win over the Panthers, but they've been otherwise useless and winless against the rest of the league this season. LIONS 31-24
CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- This is the game of the week to watch for Ravens fans as it will likely have a tremendous impact on the wildcard race. The Chargers have looked sensational from both and offensive and defensive standpoint for most of the last 9 weeks. The Chiefs, on the other hand, recognize that this is their last stand. If they can't win at home tonight, their odds of getting into the playoffs, let alone winning the division, will be quite poor. The Chiefs did surprise me with a sound win against the Raiders last week, but the Chargers have a MUCH better defense than the Chiefs, and their offense is humming to boot. It's difficult to imagine Andy Reid will be able to muster enough to stifle Philip Rivers and score enough against an extremely opportunistic Chargers defense. CHARGERS 23-17
SUNDAY
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- This may just be the most difficult game to predict this weekend. The Bills will have Tyrod Taylor back, but even with him playing, Buffalo has struggled for quite a while now. The Dolphins have only won 2 road games on the season, and they'll be out of their element tomorrow with a high of 28 degrees. The Fins will be motivated because if they win out, they have a decent shot at a wildcard berth, but the Bills also have their backs against the wall and should likely consider this the most winnable game left on their schedule. I hope the Dolphins prove me wrong on this one. C'mon Cutler, show us something. BILLS 27-20
BENGALS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings lost on the road in a close game against a formidable Panthers team last week, but it would be bizarre for them to drop two in a row, especially with the Bengals coming to town. The Bengals gave the Steelers a good fight a couple of weeks ago, but they'll limp wounded into Minnesota after losing 33-7 at home to the Bears last week. The Bengals have had to put Tyler Eifert, Adam Jones, Jeremy Hill, Kevin Minter, and John Ross on injured reserve as of late, while Vontaze Burfict, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Nick Vigil are all ruled out for this week. Marvin Lewis knows he'll lose his job as head coach after this season...but a spot might just open up in Baltimore for either him or Chuck Pagano to return as defensive coordinator. VIKINGS 28-13
JETS AT SAINTS- The Saints will handle their business this week, but the Jets might put up a little bit of a fight. SAINTS 34-24
EAGLES AT GIANTS- The Eagles with Nick Foles are still dramatically superior to the Giants, but I doubt the Eagles have a great shot to win a Super Bowl without Carson Wentz. EAGLES 31-17
CARDINALS AT REDSKINS- The Cardinals have won two of their last 3 games, and they did so against some of the strongest teams in the AFC. Both games, however, were at home. The Redskins have been eliminated from playoff contention and have lost their last 2 games in embarrassing fashion. Hell, let's just go with the Cardinals here. CARDINALS 21-17
PACKERS AT PANTHERS- It's difficult to know just how the Packers will play with Aaron Rodgers back...on the road...against a playoff contender. The Packers have found a rhythm as of late though, and Rodgers totally transforms this team when he's on. If the Jets can take the Panthers right down to the wire, than so can the Packers with Rodgers back. PACKERS 34-30
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars should be able to force enough mistakes to make this a solid win, but it's still a divisional matchup. The Jags clinch a playoff berth with a victory on Sunday--something they haven't done in 10 years. JAGUARS 30-10
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- The Rams have compiled a dominant 5-1 road record, but they lost at home to the Seahawks much earlier this season. Seattle has continued to find a way to win games this season, but their defensive personnel has grown impossibly thin. The Seahawks have lost 3 of their last 6 games, and two of those losses came at home. Pro Bowl Seahawks linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright were injured last week against the Jaguars, and it's difficult to imagine they'll both play. This means the Seahawks will be short-staffed in their ability to stop the thunderous running game of the Rams, and that is in addition to the major losses to the Seahawks secondary that have piled up over the course of this season. RAMS 24-21
PATRIOTS AT STEELERS- The Steelers haven't matched up well against the Patriots in many years. With Rob Gronkowski returning the Patriots lineup, it's difficult to imagine that the Steelers will be able to stop Tom Brady and company considering how many points they gave up to the Ravens offense last week. The Steelers dropped a game to divisional rivals last week, but they were without their biggest weapon. I can't see the Patriots dropping two games in a row when conference supremacy is on the line. This game will, nevertheless, be quite exciting. PATRIOTS 42-34
TITANS AT 49ERS- The Titans have become motivated and dangerous as of late, and the Titans have struggled without Marcus Mariota at full strength. I picked the 49ers to lose twice in the last few weeks, and they made me look stupid. 49ERS 23-21
COWBOYS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders defense won't be able to stop the Cowboys rushing attack, and the Raiders offense is not what it was last season. COWBOYS 35-24
RAVENS AT BROWNS- The return of Josh Gordon has allowed the Browns to look far more competitive in recent weeks, but they don't yet have the might to put teams away. The Ravens handled this team earlier in the season without much from Joe Flacco, but the Ravens have vastly improved their offensive production as they've scored an average of 27.5 points per game over the last 6 weeks after only averaging 18.57 points per game over their first 7 weeks. The Ravens didn't pick off Big Ben once last week, though they had their chances to do so. Expect them to force a far greater number of mistakes from Kizer on Sunday. Get em, Sizzle. RAVENS 28-17
MONDAY
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- I truly believed the Buccaneers would be at least a decent team this season, but with 4 wins on the season and none in over a month, they've been an utter disappointment. The Falcons already beat them soundly in Atlanta, and Tampa Bay isn't exactly a major departure from a distance or weather standpoint. FALCONS 35-23
THE RAVENS CAN PICK THE SPIRITS OF THEIR FANS UP BY TROUNCING THEIR NEXT TWO PATHETIC OPPONENTS. THIS BY NO MEANS SUGGESTS THAT THE BROWNS OR COLTS SHOULD BE TAKEN LIGHTLY, BUT IF THE RAVENS CAN'T BEAT THEM, THEY DON'T DESERVE TO EVEN THINK ABOUT THE POST-SEASON. THE RAVENS SHOWED THEY COULD GO TOE TO TOE WITH ONE OF THE AFC'S TOP TEAMS LAST WEEK, SO IT'S TIME TO DOMINATE AGAINST THREE REMAINING OPPONENTS THAT HAVE A COMBINED WIN TOTAL OF 8 GAMES.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
A Colts win last weekend in the snow over a weakened Bills team would have gone a long way to potentially allowing the Ravens to clinch a wildcard spot by simply winning their next two games. Sadly, however, Adam Vinatieri missed what would have been a game-winning field goal as time expired in regulation, and the Bills ended up winning the game in overtime. Now Buffalo technically possesses the final wildcard spot for the moment, and they find themselves staring down 3 divisional matchups to finish their season. The return of Tyrod Taylor will certainly give the Bills an offensive boost, but they face the Dolphins in Buffalo, the Patriots, and then the Dolphins in Miami to finish the season. No one is going to accuse the Dolphins of being playoff contenders at this point, but they have looked better as of late with a dominant 35-9 win over the Broncos two weeks ago and a surprising 27-20 win over the Patriots last weekend. If the Dolphins can continue their recent momentum with a win this weekend in Buffalo, the implications would be tremendous for Baltimore. One would then have to assume the Patriots would take care of the Bills easily in Foxborough, and then the best Buffalo could do is finish the season 8-8. Every Ravens fan, thus, needs to root hard for the Dolphins this weekend.
Beyond a Dolphins win this weekend, the Ravens would need either the Chiefs or Chargers to lose their next two games in order to potentially be able to rest their starters in Week 17. The fortunate thing for the Ravens is that the Chiefs and Chargers play one another this weekend, and that guarantees that at least ONE of them will lose. The Chiefs could easily lose their next two games against a red-hot Chargers team and a Dolphins team that has come on as of late. If the Chiefs find a way to beat the Chargers, Philip Rivers and his crew will then have to go back out to East coast to face a Jets team that is has a poor road record but goes toe to toe with contenders at home in New Jersey. The odds appear much stronger that the Chiefs, not the Chargers, would drop their next two games, but we'll know Saturday night whether or not Andy Reid and his crew can take a big step towards righting the ship in time to save their season.
The Titans are one of the other wildcard contenders, but at 8-5 with a head-to-head win over the Ravens, the Titans own a tiebreaker over Baltimore if both teams finish the season 9-7. Even if the Titans lose their next two games and drop to 8-7 (as they very well could) their losses would not afford the Ravens the ability to rest their starters in the final week of the regular season. This is because the Titans and Ravens final games are at the same time on the same day. If the Titans played at 1:00 and the Ravens played at 4:25 or 8:30, then the Ravens would know if the Titans had lost out ahead of time and could sit their starters if the Titans lost out. That, unfortunately, will not be the case. The remainder of the Titans' season should, however, still be monitored as Tennessee actually faces three tough games, and if they lose out, could afford the Ravens the ability to snag a wildcard spot even if they drop one of their final three games.
Tennessee has dropped 2 of their last 4 games, and Marcus Mariota's health has played a major factor in the recent dip in production. Last week's perplexing 12-9 loss to the irrelevant Cardinals in conjunction with three dangerous remaining games means that the Titans, once a shoe-in for at least a wildcard spot, now face the possibility of being eliminated entirely. The Titans travel across the country this week to face a revamped 49ers team that has won 3 of its last 4 games with recent acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. If the Titans lose to the 49ers this weekend, they will travel back home to face a ferocious Rams team, and then they'll face a highly motivated Jaguars for the regular season finale. As poorly as the Titans have played as of late, it's entirely possible that they lose all three of these games, and that would dramatically increase the Ravens' odds of squeaking into the playoffs if they finish the regular season 9-7.
Baltimore can ensure a playoff berth by simply winning all three of their remaining games. Losing to the Steelers 39-38 was painful, but it demonstrated that Marty Mornhinweg has truly got the Ravens offense back on track. The defensive letdown was worrisome, but the mistakes that led to the loss are entirely correctable. I doubt there's any Ravens fan that came away from that game thinking that the Ravens wouldn't have a great shot to beat the Steelers if the teams met once again in the post-season. With that said, if the Ravens hope to be physically ready to even GET to the second round of the playoffs to face the Steelers or possibly the Patriots, it would be tremendously helpful to be able to rest their starters in Week 17. Baltimore fans should, therefore, root for both the Bills, and Chiefs or Chargers to lose their next two games, and the Ravens, meanwhile, absolutely MUST handle their own business against a winless Browns team and a Colts team that appears at this point to have given up.
WEEK 15 NFL PICKS
SATURDAY NIGHT
BEARS AT LIONS- It's difficult to imagine a desperate and not-yet-totally-eliminated Lions team losing at home to a Bears team that they beat on the road earlier this season. Sure, the Bears have had 3 rather perplexing wins over AFC North teams and one surprisingly dominant win over the Panthers, but they've been otherwise useless and winless against the rest of the league this season. LIONS 31-24
CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- This is the game of the week to watch for Ravens fans as it will likely have a tremendous impact on the wildcard race. The Chargers have looked sensational from both and offensive and defensive standpoint for most of the last 9 weeks. The Chiefs, on the other hand, recognize that this is their last stand. If they can't win at home tonight, their odds of getting into the playoffs, let alone winning the division, will be quite poor. The Chiefs did surprise me with a sound win against the Raiders last week, but the Chargers have a MUCH better defense than the Chiefs, and their offense is humming to boot. It's difficult to imagine Andy Reid will be able to muster enough to stifle Philip Rivers and score enough against an extremely opportunistic Chargers defense. CHARGERS 23-17
SUNDAY
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- This may just be the most difficult game to predict this weekend. The Bills will have Tyrod Taylor back, but even with him playing, Buffalo has struggled for quite a while now. The Dolphins have only won 2 road games on the season, and they'll be out of their element tomorrow with a high of 28 degrees. The Fins will be motivated because if they win out, they have a decent shot at a wildcard berth, but the Bills also have their backs against the wall and should likely consider this the most winnable game left on their schedule. I hope the Dolphins prove me wrong on this one. C'mon Cutler, show us something. BILLS 27-20
BENGALS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings lost on the road in a close game against a formidable Panthers team last week, but it would be bizarre for them to drop two in a row, especially with the Bengals coming to town. The Bengals gave the Steelers a good fight a couple of weeks ago, but they'll limp wounded into Minnesota after losing 33-7 at home to the Bears last week. The Bengals have had to put Tyler Eifert, Adam Jones, Jeremy Hill, Kevin Minter, and John Ross on injured reserve as of late, while Vontaze Burfict, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Nick Vigil are all ruled out for this week. Marvin Lewis knows he'll lose his job as head coach after this season...but a spot might just open up in Baltimore for either him or Chuck Pagano to return as defensive coordinator. VIKINGS 28-13
JETS AT SAINTS- The Saints will handle their business this week, but the Jets might put up a little bit of a fight. SAINTS 34-24
EAGLES AT GIANTS- The Eagles with Nick Foles are still dramatically superior to the Giants, but I doubt the Eagles have a great shot to win a Super Bowl without Carson Wentz. EAGLES 31-17
CARDINALS AT REDSKINS- The Cardinals have won two of their last 3 games, and they did so against some of the strongest teams in the AFC. Both games, however, were at home. The Redskins have been eliminated from playoff contention and have lost their last 2 games in embarrassing fashion. Hell, let's just go with the Cardinals here. CARDINALS 21-17
PACKERS AT PANTHERS- It's difficult to know just how the Packers will play with Aaron Rodgers back...on the road...against a playoff contender. The Packers have found a rhythm as of late though, and Rodgers totally transforms this team when he's on. If the Jets can take the Panthers right down to the wire, than so can the Packers with Rodgers back. PACKERS 34-30
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars should be able to force enough mistakes to make this a solid win, but it's still a divisional matchup. The Jags clinch a playoff berth with a victory on Sunday--something they haven't done in 10 years. JAGUARS 30-10
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- The Rams have compiled a dominant 5-1 road record, but they lost at home to the Seahawks much earlier this season. Seattle has continued to find a way to win games this season, but their defensive personnel has grown impossibly thin. The Seahawks have lost 3 of their last 6 games, and two of those losses came at home. Pro Bowl Seahawks linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright were injured last week against the Jaguars, and it's difficult to imagine they'll both play. This means the Seahawks will be short-staffed in their ability to stop the thunderous running game of the Rams, and that is in addition to the major losses to the Seahawks secondary that have piled up over the course of this season. RAMS 24-21
PATRIOTS AT STEELERS- The Steelers haven't matched up well against the Patriots in many years. With Rob Gronkowski returning the Patriots lineup, it's difficult to imagine that the Steelers will be able to stop Tom Brady and company considering how many points they gave up to the Ravens offense last week. The Steelers dropped a game to divisional rivals last week, but they were without their biggest weapon. I can't see the Patriots dropping two games in a row when conference supremacy is on the line. This game will, nevertheless, be quite exciting. PATRIOTS 42-34
TITANS AT 49ERS- The Titans have become motivated and dangerous as of late, and the Titans have struggled without Marcus Mariota at full strength. I picked the 49ers to lose twice in the last few weeks, and they made me look stupid. 49ERS 23-21
COWBOYS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders defense won't be able to stop the Cowboys rushing attack, and the Raiders offense is not what it was last season. COWBOYS 35-24
RAVENS AT BROWNS- The return of Josh Gordon has allowed the Browns to look far more competitive in recent weeks, but they don't yet have the might to put teams away. The Ravens handled this team earlier in the season without much from Joe Flacco, but the Ravens have vastly improved their offensive production as they've scored an average of 27.5 points per game over the last 6 weeks after only averaging 18.57 points per game over their first 7 weeks. The Ravens didn't pick off Big Ben once last week, though they had their chances to do so. Expect them to force a far greater number of mistakes from Kizer on Sunday. Get em, Sizzle. RAVENS 28-17
MONDAY
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- I truly believed the Buccaneers would be at least a decent team this season, but with 4 wins on the season and none in over a month, they've been an utter disappointment. The Falcons already beat them soundly in Atlanta, and Tampa Bay isn't exactly a major departure from a distance or weather standpoint. FALCONS 35-23
THE RAVENS CAN PICK THE SPIRITS OF THEIR FANS UP BY TROUNCING THEIR NEXT TWO PATHETIC OPPONENTS. THIS BY NO MEANS SUGGESTS THAT THE BROWNS OR COLTS SHOULD BE TAKEN LIGHTLY, BUT IF THE RAVENS CAN'T BEAT THEM, THEY DON'T DESERVE TO EVEN THINK ABOUT THE POST-SEASON. THE RAVENS SHOWED THEY COULD GO TOE TO TOE WITH ONE OF THE AFC'S TOP TEAMS LAST WEEK, SO IT'S TIME TO DOMINATE AGAINST THREE REMAINING OPPONENTS THAT HAVE A COMBINED WIN TOTAL OF 8 GAMES.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, December 10, 2017
WEEK 14 NFL PREDICTIONS AND RAVENS PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
Recent optimism about Baltimore's chances of snagging a wildcard berth has Ravens fans feeling quite a bit better about their team than they did only one month ago. Only four weeks ago, Harbaugh and company found themselves staring down yet another year without a trip to the post season. It seemed as though injuries to starters had derailed what could have been a strong season. The Ravens, however, were not the only team to be bitten hard by the injury bug. A string of Ravens opponents experienced monumental losses of key personnel including starting elite quarterbacks and former defensive pro bowlers. Suddenly daunting games against the Texans and Packers that many fans penciled in as certain losses ended up being strong wins. The Ravens then built enough momentum to put together a convincing win last week against the Detroit Lions, and now here they sit with a 7-5 record going into Steelers week. A fairly pessimistic friend of mine recently expressed concern that the Ravens still wouldn't get into the playoffs, so I felt compelled to map out the various scenarios that would lead to the Ravens making or not making the playoffs in the 2017 season.
With a 7-5 record, the Ravens are the clear-cut frontrunners for the final wildcard spot in the AFC. Equally important to their current record is the schedule that lies before them. The Steelers game tonight certainly won't be easy, but after this weekend, the Ravens come home to face a homeless 3-9 Colts team. They then pack up and head to face a winless Cleveland Browns team before coming back home to play a banged up Bengals team that the Ravens held scoreless on the road in the first week of the season. Even if the Ravens lose to the Steelers tonight, Baltimore still has a fantastic chance of finishing 10-6 or at 9-7. They could technically finish 11-5, but it wouldn't be advisable. This is because if the Ravens win their next three games and stand at 10-5 going into the final week of the season, it would behoove them to rest their starters against the Bengals before heading into the post season the same way they did in 2012. Eleven wins likely won't secure a the division lead as the Steelers currently stand at 10-2. It would take a serious injury to Ben Roethlisberger to stop the Steelers from winning at least two of their remaining 4 games.
The Steelers' next two opponents certainly will be tough. They, of course, face a Ravens team that appears to have found its rhythm as of late, and then they face a Patriots team that hasn't lost a game since the first month of the season. Pittsburgh will take on these opponents without their starting Mike linebacker, Ryan Shazier, or his backup, Tyler Matakevich. Shazier, when healthy, is one of the most dynamic linebackers in the game. His speed is unmatched at his position as he ran a 4.3 forty yard dash at the NFL combine. Since entering the league, however, Shazier has not been able to stay healthy for an entire season. 2017 was shaping up to be Shazier's first fully healthy season in his career before he was tragically carted off the field with a major spinal injury that could potentially mean the end of his football career. Regardless of team affiliation, no one wants to see a young man lose the use of his legs, and the Steelers-Ravens rivalry is made better with the presence of great players on both sides. Purple Nightmare wishes Shazier a speedy full recovery.
Shazier isn't the only elite defender who won't suit up for the Steelers tonight. Pro Bowl corner Joe Haden has not yet resumed practicing since breaking his fibula weeks ago, and his status next week against the Patriots is in doubt as well. Haden's presence made a tremendous difference in the Steelers' ability to limit opponents' scoring. The Steelers allowed an average 16.44 points per game with a healthy Joe Haden, and that number has risen to 21.66 points per game during his absence. More troublesome for Pittsburgh has been the nature of their recent wins. A last second field goal was required to beat an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers team in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, and that came only one week after the Ravens held the same team scoreless in Green Bay. Then last Monday night the Steelers needed a last second field goal to beat a Bengals team that the Ravens held scoreless earlier in the season. That game might not have been close were it not for a phantom holding call on a beautiful bomb touchdown pass to A.J. Green as well as the Le'veon Bell being allowed to scamper free up the sidelines by a brainless Bengal instead of simply being pushed out of bounds. One must, of course, give the Steelers credit for finding a way to continue to win, but extremely close games against crappy teams implies this Pittsburgh squad isn't as ferocious as their record would suggest at the moment.
The Ravens have suffered their own serious injury as of late with Jimmy Smith tearing his Achilles against the Lions. Smith's absence was immediately felt as the Lions suddenly began to mount a comeback and picked on Smith's replacement, Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey was out-hustled and out-muscled by Marvin Jones, and he'll face a far more daunting task tonight anytime he finds himself lined up across from Antonio Brown. The Ravens defensive coordinator will likely not feel as comfortable bringing as many defensive backs on blitzes without Smith in the game to lock down his side, so the Ravens will need to find ways to consistently generate pressure from their front 4 and front 7. One thing has helped prepare the Ravens to defend opponents without Jimmy Smith at their disposal, and that has been Jimmy Smith's consistent absence. Despite his high level of play this season, a nagging Achilles injury forced Jimmy Smith to play a portion of the defensive snaps on any given game over the past few months. Beyond this season, the Ravens have, of course, dealt with consistent injuries in all but one of Jimmy Smith's seasons in the league. In only 2013 did Jimmy Smith play all 16 games, and he played at a Pro Bowl level as a result. The team is, nevertheless, unquestionably better when he can suit up.
Because of Jimmy Smith's injury history, the Ravens staff made absolutely sure to load up on quality corners for this season. Marlon Humphrey, despite struggling at times last week, has played extremely well this season, and Brandon Carr delivered a consistent quality of coverage as well as 3 impressive interceptions. Maurice Canady finally became healthy this season, and his presence gives the Ravens a corner who can be plugged in both on the outside and against slot receivers. These three corners make up a better trio than those that took the field for the Ravens in the heartbreaking last minute loss to the Steelers last Christmas. This group certainly won't shut the Steelers defense down, but hopefully they'll be better able to limit a second-half surge by the Steelers offense that we have seen over the past couple of weeks.
The Steelers and Ravens will both be missing their aforementioned most frequently injured defensive stars tonight, but that won't necessarily mean a high scoring affair. Despite spectacular weapons such as Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, the Steelers have averaged just 23.4 points per game, which is barely more than the Ravens' 23.3 point average. The Ravens have also struggled offensively for most of the season, but have come on as of late. Baltimore has won four of their last 5 games, and during that stretch, they've scored an average of exactly 30 points per game and held opponents over that stretch to a staggering 11.8 points per game. The Steelers, over their last 5 contests, have scored 26.8 points per game and allowed an average of 19.7 points per game. That means the Steelers scoring differential has been roughly a touchdown while the Ravens scoring differential has been just over 18 points per game. Before anyone suggests that this has to do with who the Ravens have played over the last 5 games, let's remember that the Ravens have Steelers have faced numerous common opponents over their last 5 games including the Titans, Packers, and Lions.
Many will cite the close nature of the vast majority of Ravens-Steelers games as a reason why season records should be thrown out the window. This line of reasoning holds merit as the Ravens swept the Steelers in 2015 despite only winning 5 games total on the season. A level of familiarity exists between these teams that makes statistics gathered during games against other opponents decidedly less significant. Neither of these teams NEEDS a win tonight to make the playoffs, but a win for the Steelers would clinch the division, and a win for the Ravens could ultimately afford them the ability to have a virtual bye week in Week 17. The Steelers would LIKE to win tonight to help keep pace for the conference lead with the Patriots, but if the Steelers lose tonight and then find a way to beat the Patriots next week, they'll still have the inside track for the #1 seed in the playoffs if they can win the rest of their regular season games.
Ok, we have gotten a bit sidetracked, but I assure you that all this information is absolutely necessary for the full picture. The Ravens still do have some other teams chasing them for wildcard spots including all of the current 6-win teams in the AFC: the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders. The Chiefs currently hold their division lead and the 4th seed, but they've dropped 6 of their last 7 games and simply don't appear equipped to turn their once promising season around. If, however, the Chiefs do turn things around and maintain their division lead, it only means that they will have knocked off two of their divisional rivals who also happen to by wildcard contenders in the Chargers and Raiders. I firmly the believe the Raiders will, in fact, beat a very different Chiefs team today than the one that beat the Raiders earlier this season. The Chargers will also likely beat the hapless Chiefs next week, and that would likely eliminate the Chiefs both from divisional and wildcard contention.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have won 6 of their last 8 games, and can prove themselves as well as likely win their division by winning 3 of their remaining 4 games. With upcoming games against the already-eliminated-from-contention Redskins, the freefalling Chiefs, the Jets, and the Raiders, the Chargers absolutely have a clear path to the playoffs. This doesn't mean the Chargers are exactly sensational as they only beat the Browns last week 19-10, but they've displayed some serious offensive fireworks at times with Philip Rivers leading the...heh...charge. All bad jokes aside, this team could be a serious dark horse in the playoffs, and every other AFC team knows it. The Chargers aren't the only AFC West team to have an upswing in play after dip earlier in the season. The Raiders have won 3 of their last 4 games, but unlike the Chargers, they face a far tougher road ahead. The Raiders will be getting Amari Cooper back healthy this week, but the only relatively soft left on the their schedule is the Chiefs. The Oakland still has to face the Cowboys, Eagles, and then the Chargers to finish out the regular season, and they could easily lose all three of those games to finish the season with a disappointing 7-9 record. Even if the Raiders find a way to beat both the Chiefs and Cowboys, it seems unlikely they'll beat both the Eagles and Chargers as well. Oh, and even if the Raiders finish 9-7 and the Ravens also finish 9-7, the Raiders won't be able to occupy the final wildcard spot because of the Ravens' head to head victory in Oakland earlier this season.
Ok, so what does all of this mean? It means that for any one of the AFC West teams to get hot and take hold of their division, they have to knock out the other two division contenders. In that way, they're doing the Ravens a favor. Also, by knocking off the other wildcard contenders in the division, the Chargers, for example, would take themselves out of wildcard contention by winning their own division and occupying an entirely different playoff spot. The only non-AFC West 6-win wildcard contender remaining is the Buffalo Bills, and they will be without their starting quarterback today in a game they will likely lose as a result. That will leave them 6-7 heading into a three-game stretch against the Dolphins, Patriots, and Dolphins again. The Bills could sweep the Dolphins and still be virtually eliminated from playoff contention by one more loss to a highly motivated Patriots team. The moral of this story? The Ravens likely only need to win 3 of their remaining 4 games to secure a playoff spot, and hopefully the first of those three will come tonight against a formidable but banged up Steelers team.
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
COLTS AT BILLS- Tyrod Taylor hasn't exactly had a flawless season, but with him out, the Bills have nothing to give--and he's out today. COLTS 24-14
BEARS AT BENGALS- The Bears would do everyone a favor by winning their first game in weeks and knocking off the Bengals entirely, but that simply doesn't seem likely here. The Bears can't make the playoffs, but the Bengals have a tiny sliver of hope to do so, and they'll be motivated at home to keep that sliver of hope alive. The Bengals are quite banged up, but they still have more firepower than the Bears. Hope I'm wrong about this one. BENGALS 28-17
PACKERS AT BROWNS- The Browns have steadily improved, but they haven't improved enough to win a game. The Packers aren't exactly setting the league on fire without Aaron Rodgers, but they still have good enough wide receivers and enough talent from their backup quarterback to outscore a team that has yet to outscore any opponent on the season. DeShone Kiser has a tendency to turn the ball over. This will be a little close for comfort, however. PACKERS 23-19
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- The return of Amari Cooper and the absence of Marcus Peters will spell doom for a Chiefs team that has won 1 out of their last 7 games after beginning the season in spectacular 5-0 fashion. The Chiefs have proven that it's truly not how you begin the season but how you finish. RAIDERS 20-17
COWBOYS AT GIANTS- Only one of these teams has even the smallest of outside chances to go to the playoffs, and it's not the Giants. Sure, it's possible Eli Manning might have a chip on his shoulder after being recently benched, but it's not as though he was leading his team to numerous victories earlier this season. The Giants have won 2 games--that's it. The Cowboys proved earlier this season that they match up quite well with this depressing Giants team. COWBOYS 31-14
LIONS AT BUCCANEERS- Matthew Stafford may still have some pain in his throwing hand after it was stepped on last weekend, but I'm still going to pick him to have a rebound game against a relatively useless Bucs team. LIONS 27-21
VIKINGS AT PANTHERS- Regardless of the Eagles' record, the Vikings are the strongest team in the NFC as they've beaten more teams with winning records than any other franchise in the league this season. The Panthers aren't bad, but they haven't been impressive against playoff caliber teams this season. Two major injuries to the Vikings offensive line, however, will keep this game much closer than the Vikings would prefer. VIKINGS 17-14
49ERS AT TEXANS-the 49ers' first glimmer of hope on the season was last week's 1-point win over the Bears with their new starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo offering the promise of stability at a position that has haunted San Francisco since 2013. With that said, the Texans still have enough weapons on both sides of the ball to beat the 49ers at home, but this will actually be a good game against two teams that could become much better next season. TEXANS 24-20
JETS AT BRONCOS- The Jets will not make the playoffs with a 5-7 record and the Saints, Chargers, and Patriots still remaining on their schedule. They are, however, good enough to put up a strong performance against one of the very worst teams in the league. There isn't a rational explanation for why the Broncos are as bad as they are--but they are. JETS 34-21
TITANS AT CARDINALS- Losers of 3 of their last 4 games, the Cardinals simply don't have the clout to consistently take down quality teams. Tennessee is highly motivated and loaded with weapons. They must maintain their pace to keep the Jaguars from wrestling the division title away. The Titans are only 3-3 on the road, so I don't expect this to be a piece of cake. TITANS 30-24
REDSKINS AT CHARGERS- The Redskins can no longer make the playoffs, and despite their win in Seattle over the Seahawks several weeks ago, it's tough to imagine them traveling across country again and upsetting a contender--especially one as hot as the Chargers right now. CHARGERS 31-27
EAGLES AT RAMS- The Eagles have had a great season, but they've done so in large part to their strength of schedule. Philly has only beaten a single team this season that currently possesses a winning record. The Rams have absolutely dominated the bad teams, but they've also had some impressive wins over other top contenders including the Saints and Jaguars. RAMS 26-21
SEAHAWKS AT JAGUARS- The Seahawks have performed admirably with so many of their defensive stars out, but they will be out of their element when traveling across country to take on an incredibly opportunistic Jaguars defense. JAGUARS 21-17
PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS- It's tough to see the Patriots losing another game unless they rest their starters after clinching the #1 seed. The Steelers' 10-2 record will likely mean the Patriots will have to wait until the first round of the playoffs to rest. PATRIOTS 34-21
RAVENS AT STEELERS- This will be a far more evenly matched game than the first meeting of these teams in the first quarter of the season. The Ravens and Steelers are both out their best corners, but the Steelers are playing on a slightly shorter week and will be without their best linebacker and his backup. The Ravens have started to produce well on offense, and their defense, though it will be without Jimmy Smith, will have a healthy Brandon Williams. Williams didn't suit up for the last matchup between these two teams, and he should help limit Le'veon Bell to a much lower rushing total than the 144 yards he put up in Week 4. Joe Flacco's back is finally healthy, and his accuracy, especially on deep passes, has reflected it. The Ravens offensive line has finally become solidified with Matt Skura healthy and fully adjusted to his position, and the fumbling issues Alex Collins experienced early this season have totally disappeared. I know the Steelers have emotional motivation to win this game for their fallen comrade, but the Ravens need the win more from a playoff hunt standpoint. Pittsburgh has looked sluggish in the first halves of games and barely beaten some mediocre teams over the last couple of weeks. The Ravens are not a mediocre team. The season isn't over the Ravens lose this game, but as banged up as the Steelers defense is right now this is their opportunity to prove themselves to the league. Justin Tucker has another big day. RAVENS 26-24.
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THIS IS WHAT WE LIVE FOR. IT'S STEELERS WEEK!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
With a 7-5 record, the Ravens are the clear-cut frontrunners for the final wildcard spot in the AFC. Equally important to their current record is the schedule that lies before them. The Steelers game tonight certainly won't be easy, but after this weekend, the Ravens come home to face a homeless 3-9 Colts team. They then pack up and head to face a winless Cleveland Browns team before coming back home to play a banged up Bengals team that the Ravens held scoreless on the road in the first week of the season. Even if the Ravens lose to the Steelers tonight, Baltimore still has a fantastic chance of finishing 10-6 or at 9-7. They could technically finish 11-5, but it wouldn't be advisable. This is because if the Ravens win their next three games and stand at 10-5 going into the final week of the season, it would behoove them to rest their starters against the Bengals before heading into the post season the same way they did in 2012. Eleven wins likely won't secure a the division lead as the Steelers currently stand at 10-2. It would take a serious injury to Ben Roethlisberger to stop the Steelers from winning at least two of their remaining 4 games.
The Steelers' next two opponents certainly will be tough. They, of course, face a Ravens team that appears to have found its rhythm as of late, and then they face a Patriots team that hasn't lost a game since the first month of the season. Pittsburgh will take on these opponents without their starting Mike linebacker, Ryan Shazier, or his backup, Tyler Matakevich. Shazier, when healthy, is one of the most dynamic linebackers in the game. His speed is unmatched at his position as he ran a 4.3 forty yard dash at the NFL combine. Since entering the league, however, Shazier has not been able to stay healthy for an entire season. 2017 was shaping up to be Shazier's first fully healthy season in his career before he was tragically carted off the field with a major spinal injury that could potentially mean the end of his football career. Regardless of team affiliation, no one wants to see a young man lose the use of his legs, and the Steelers-Ravens rivalry is made better with the presence of great players on both sides. Purple Nightmare wishes Shazier a speedy full recovery.
Shazier isn't the only elite defender who won't suit up for the Steelers tonight. Pro Bowl corner Joe Haden has not yet resumed practicing since breaking his fibula weeks ago, and his status next week against the Patriots is in doubt as well. Haden's presence made a tremendous difference in the Steelers' ability to limit opponents' scoring. The Steelers allowed an average 16.44 points per game with a healthy Joe Haden, and that number has risen to 21.66 points per game during his absence. More troublesome for Pittsburgh has been the nature of their recent wins. A last second field goal was required to beat an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers team in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, and that came only one week after the Ravens held the same team scoreless in Green Bay. Then last Monday night the Steelers needed a last second field goal to beat a Bengals team that the Ravens held scoreless earlier in the season. That game might not have been close were it not for a phantom holding call on a beautiful bomb touchdown pass to A.J. Green as well as the Le'veon Bell being allowed to scamper free up the sidelines by a brainless Bengal instead of simply being pushed out of bounds. One must, of course, give the Steelers credit for finding a way to continue to win, but extremely close games against crappy teams implies this Pittsburgh squad isn't as ferocious as their record would suggest at the moment.
The Ravens have suffered their own serious injury as of late with Jimmy Smith tearing his Achilles against the Lions. Smith's absence was immediately felt as the Lions suddenly began to mount a comeback and picked on Smith's replacement, Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey was out-hustled and out-muscled by Marvin Jones, and he'll face a far more daunting task tonight anytime he finds himself lined up across from Antonio Brown. The Ravens defensive coordinator will likely not feel as comfortable bringing as many defensive backs on blitzes without Smith in the game to lock down his side, so the Ravens will need to find ways to consistently generate pressure from their front 4 and front 7. One thing has helped prepare the Ravens to defend opponents without Jimmy Smith at their disposal, and that has been Jimmy Smith's consistent absence. Despite his high level of play this season, a nagging Achilles injury forced Jimmy Smith to play a portion of the defensive snaps on any given game over the past few months. Beyond this season, the Ravens have, of course, dealt with consistent injuries in all but one of Jimmy Smith's seasons in the league. In only 2013 did Jimmy Smith play all 16 games, and he played at a Pro Bowl level as a result. The team is, nevertheless, unquestionably better when he can suit up.
Because of Jimmy Smith's injury history, the Ravens staff made absolutely sure to load up on quality corners for this season. Marlon Humphrey, despite struggling at times last week, has played extremely well this season, and Brandon Carr delivered a consistent quality of coverage as well as 3 impressive interceptions. Maurice Canady finally became healthy this season, and his presence gives the Ravens a corner who can be plugged in both on the outside and against slot receivers. These three corners make up a better trio than those that took the field for the Ravens in the heartbreaking last minute loss to the Steelers last Christmas. This group certainly won't shut the Steelers defense down, but hopefully they'll be better able to limit a second-half surge by the Steelers offense that we have seen over the past couple of weeks.
The Steelers and Ravens will both be missing their aforementioned most frequently injured defensive stars tonight, but that won't necessarily mean a high scoring affair. Despite spectacular weapons such as Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, the Steelers have averaged just 23.4 points per game, which is barely more than the Ravens' 23.3 point average. The Ravens have also struggled offensively for most of the season, but have come on as of late. Baltimore has won four of their last 5 games, and during that stretch, they've scored an average of exactly 30 points per game and held opponents over that stretch to a staggering 11.8 points per game. The Steelers, over their last 5 contests, have scored 26.8 points per game and allowed an average of 19.7 points per game. That means the Steelers scoring differential has been roughly a touchdown while the Ravens scoring differential has been just over 18 points per game. Before anyone suggests that this has to do with who the Ravens have played over the last 5 games, let's remember that the Ravens have Steelers have faced numerous common opponents over their last 5 games including the Titans, Packers, and Lions.
Many will cite the close nature of the vast majority of Ravens-Steelers games as a reason why season records should be thrown out the window. This line of reasoning holds merit as the Ravens swept the Steelers in 2015 despite only winning 5 games total on the season. A level of familiarity exists between these teams that makes statistics gathered during games against other opponents decidedly less significant. Neither of these teams NEEDS a win tonight to make the playoffs, but a win for the Steelers would clinch the division, and a win for the Ravens could ultimately afford them the ability to have a virtual bye week in Week 17. The Steelers would LIKE to win tonight to help keep pace for the conference lead with the Patriots, but if the Steelers lose tonight and then find a way to beat the Patriots next week, they'll still have the inside track for the #1 seed in the playoffs if they can win the rest of their regular season games.
Ok, we have gotten a bit sidetracked, but I assure you that all this information is absolutely necessary for the full picture. The Ravens still do have some other teams chasing them for wildcard spots including all of the current 6-win teams in the AFC: the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders. The Chiefs currently hold their division lead and the 4th seed, but they've dropped 6 of their last 7 games and simply don't appear equipped to turn their once promising season around. If, however, the Chiefs do turn things around and maintain their division lead, it only means that they will have knocked off two of their divisional rivals who also happen to by wildcard contenders in the Chargers and Raiders. I firmly the believe the Raiders will, in fact, beat a very different Chiefs team today than the one that beat the Raiders earlier this season. The Chargers will also likely beat the hapless Chiefs next week, and that would likely eliminate the Chiefs both from divisional and wildcard contention.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have won 6 of their last 8 games, and can prove themselves as well as likely win their division by winning 3 of their remaining 4 games. With upcoming games against the already-eliminated-from-contention Redskins, the freefalling Chiefs, the Jets, and the Raiders, the Chargers absolutely have a clear path to the playoffs. This doesn't mean the Chargers are exactly sensational as they only beat the Browns last week 19-10, but they've displayed some serious offensive fireworks at times with Philip Rivers leading the...heh...charge. All bad jokes aside, this team could be a serious dark horse in the playoffs, and every other AFC team knows it. The Chargers aren't the only AFC West team to have an upswing in play after dip earlier in the season. The Raiders have won 3 of their last 4 games, but unlike the Chargers, they face a far tougher road ahead. The Raiders will be getting Amari Cooper back healthy this week, but the only relatively soft left on the their schedule is the Chiefs. The Oakland still has to face the Cowboys, Eagles, and then the Chargers to finish out the regular season, and they could easily lose all three of those games to finish the season with a disappointing 7-9 record. Even if the Raiders find a way to beat both the Chiefs and Cowboys, it seems unlikely they'll beat both the Eagles and Chargers as well. Oh, and even if the Raiders finish 9-7 and the Ravens also finish 9-7, the Raiders won't be able to occupy the final wildcard spot because of the Ravens' head to head victory in Oakland earlier this season.
Ok, so what does all of this mean? It means that for any one of the AFC West teams to get hot and take hold of their division, they have to knock out the other two division contenders. In that way, they're doing the Ravens a favor. Also, by knocking off the other wildcard contenders in the division, the Chargers, for example, would take themselves out of wildcard contention by winning their own division and occupying an entirely different playoff spot. The only non-AFC West 6-win wildcard contender remaining is the Buffalo Bills, and they will be without their starting quarterback today in a game they will likely lose as a result. That will leave them 6-7 heading into a three-game stretch against the Dolphins, Patriots, and Dolphins again. The Bills could sweep the Dolphins and still be virtually eliminated from playoff contention by one more loss to a highly motivated Patriots team. The moral of this story? The Ravens likely only need to win 3 of their remaining 4 games to secure a playoff spot, and hopefully the first of those three will come tonight against a formidable but banged up Steelers team.
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
COLTS AT BILLS- Tyrod Taylor hasn't exactly had a flawless season, but with him out, the Bills have nothing to give--and he's out today. COLTS 24-14
BEARS AT BENGALS- The Bears would do everyone a favor by winning their first game in weeks and knocking off the Bengals entirely, but that simply doesn't seem likely here. The Bears can't make the playoffs, but the Bengals have a tiny sliver of hope to do so, and they'll be motivated at home to keep that sliver of hope alive. The Bengals are quite banged up, but they still have more firepower than the Bears. Hope I'm wrong about this one. BENGALS 28-17
PACKERS AT BROWNS- The Browns have steadily improved, but they haven't improved enough to win a game. The Packers aren't exactly setting the league on fire without Aaron Rodgers, but they still have good enough wide receivers and enough talent from their backup quarterback to outscore a team that has yet to outscore any opponent on the season. DeShone Kiser has a tendency to turn the ball over. This will be a little close for comfort, however. PACKERS 23-19
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- The return of Amari Cooper and the absence of Marcus Peters will spell doom for a Chiefs team that has won 1 out of their last 7 games after beginning the season in spectacular 5-0 fashion. The Chiefs have proven that it's truly not how you begin the season but how you finish. RAIDERS 20-17
COWBOYS AT GIANTS- Only one of these teams has even the smallest of outside chances to go to the playoffs, and it's not the Giants. Sure, it's possible Eli Manning might have a chip on his shoulder after being recently benched, but it's not as though he was leading his team to numerous victories earlier this season. The Giants have won 2 games--that's it. The Cowboys proved earlier this season that they match up quite well with this depressing Giants team. COWBOYS 31-14
LIONS AT BUCCANEERS- Matthew Stafford may still have some pain in his throwing hand after it was stepped on last weekend, but I'm still going to pick him to have a rebound game against a relatively useless Bucs team. LIONS 27-21
VIKINGS AT PANTHERS- Regardless of the Eagles' record, the Vikings are the strongest team in the NFC as they've beaten more teams with winning records than any other franchise in the league this season. The Panthers aren't bad, but they haven't been impressive against playoff caliber teams this season. Two major injuries to the Vikings offensive line, however, will keep this game much closer than the Vikings would prefer. VIKINGS 17-14
49ERS AT TEXANS-the 49ers' first glimmer of hope on the season was last week's 1-point win over the Bears with their new starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo offering the promise of stability at a position that has haunted San Francisco since 2013. With that said, the Texans still have enough weapons on both sides of the ball to beat the 49ers at home, but this will actually be a good game against two teams that could become much better next season. TEXANS 24-20
JETS AT BRONCOS- The Jets will not make the playoffs with a 5-7 record and the Saints, Chargers, and Patriots still remaining on their schedule. They are, however, good enough to put up a strong performance against one of the very worst teams in the league. There isn't a rational explanation for why the Broncos are as bad as they are--but they are. JETS 34-21
TITANS AT CARDINALS- Losers of 3 of their last 4 games, the Cardinals simply don't have the clout to consistently take down quality teams. Tennessee is highly motivated and loaded with weapons. They must maintain their pace to keep the Jaguars from wrestling the division title away. The Titans are only 3-3 on the road, so I don't expect this to be a piece of cake. TITANS 30-24
REDSKINS AT CHARGERS- The Redskins can no longer make the playoffs, and despite their win in Seattle over the Seahawks several weeks ago, it's tough to imagine them traveling across country again and upsetting a contender--especially one as hot as the Chargers right now. CHARGERS 31-27
EAGLES AT RAMS- The Eagles have had a great season, but they've done so in large part to their strength of schedule. Philly has only beaten a single team this season that currently possesses a winning record. The Rams have absolutely dominated the bad teams, but they've also had some impressive wins over other top contenders including the Saints and Jaguars. RAMS 26-21
SEAHAWKS AT JAGUARS- The Seahawks have performed admirably with so many of their defensive stars out, but they will be out of their element when traveling across country to take on an incredibly opportunistic Jaguars defense. JAGUARS 21-17
PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS- It's tough to see the Patriots losing another game unless they rest their starters after clinching the #1 seed. The Steelers' 10-2 record will likely mean the Patriots will have to wait until the first round of the playoffs to rest. PATRIOTS 34-21
RAVENS AT STEELERS- This will be a far more evenly matched game than the first meeting of these teams in the first quarter of the season. The Ravens and Steelers are both out their best corners, but the Steelers are playing on a slightly shorter week and will be without their best linebacker and his backup. The Ravens have started to produce well on offense, and their defense, though it will be without Jimmy Smith, will have a healthy Brandon Williams. Williams didn't suit up for the last matchup between these two teams, and he should help limit Le'veon Bell to a much lower rushing total than the 144 yards he put up in Week 4. Joe Flacco's back is finally healthy, and his accuracy, especially on deep passes, has reflected it. The Ravens offensive line has finally become solidified with Matt Skura healthy and fully adjusted to his position, and the fumbling issues Alex Collins experienced early this season have totally disappeared. I know the Steelers have emotional motivation to win this game for their fallen comrade, but the Ravens need the win more from a playoff hunt standpoint. Pittsburgh has looked sluggish in the first halves of games and barely beaten some mediocre teams over the last couple of weeks. The Ravens are not a mediocre team. The season isn't over the Ravens lose this game, but as banged up as the Steelers defense is right now this is their opportunity to prove themselves to the league. Justin Tucker has another big day. RAVENS 26-24.
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THIS IS WHAT WE LIVE FOR. IT'S STEELERS WEEK!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, December 3, 2017
WEEK 13 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Detroit Lions present a problem not seen by the Ravens in quite some time: an elite starting quarterback. Matthew Stafford does not yet and may not ever possess a Super Bowl ring, but he ranks 5th in the NFL this season in passing yards. The Ravens schedule has been so incredibly devoid of elite starting quarterbacks, with the exception of Ben Roethlisberger, that it's possible their pass defense's ranking is at least somewhat over-inflated. That isn't to say that the Ravens defense isn't good this season; it's just that it hasn't been tested to the same degree as other defenses around the league.
Last Monday's win over a thoroughly broken Texans squad displayed some glaring weaknesses in Baltimore's defensive unit. One of the top 3 most talented receivers in the league found ways to embarrass the Ravens' top corner, Jimmy Smith, despite the fact that Houston was missing both its starting quarterback and #2 receiver to help take pressure off of the #1. For the first time in my memory, Jimmy Smith was physically dominated and repeatedly humiliated by DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins didn't find the endzone, and he didn't put up Antonio Brown caliber numbers, but that's because what the Ravens sometimes lack in coverage skills they make up for with turnovers. This isn't a Ravens defense that just stonewalls an opponent. They've nearly all of their worst opponents to move the ball--sometimes with startling ease. Teams have run the ball right through the teeth of the Ravens front seven many times this season, and they even did so at times after Brandon Williams returned to health.
A huge part of what made the Ravens run defense more dominant early on in the season was the physical dominance of Brent Urban. Urban has since gone on injured reserve, and his run stuffing ability has been sorely missed for much of the 2017 season. Fortunately for the Ravens, the Lions run the football quite poorly. Detroit ranks 30th in the league in rushing, and that will help Baltimore turn them into a relatively one-dimensional opponent. Most of the Ravens losses have come against teams with top 10 rushing offenses. The Jaguars rank first in the league running the football, the Vikings rank 7th, the Bears rank 8th, and despite not ranking in the top 10, the Steelers have one of the best running backs in the game who had a particularly strong game against Baltimore earlier this season. Fittingly, nearly all of the Ravens' wins have come against opponents ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing as the Bengals rank 31st, the Miami ranks 29th, Oakland ranks 27th, Green Bay ranks 22nd, and Cleveland ranks 18th.
Not only is Detroit's rush offense weak this year, but they also struggle to stop the run...and the pass. Detroit ranks 22nd against the pass and 22nd against the run. If there's one thing the Ravens have faced this season it's elite defenses, so a defense ranked in the bottom third of the league will be a merciful break for a Baltimore offense ranked near dead last in total yardage. The Ravens have had to face the top ranked defense of the Jaguars, the 4th ranked defense of the Steelers, the 5th ranked defense of the Vikings, the 9th ranked defense of the Browns, the 11th ranked defense of the Titans, the 12th ranked defense of the Bears, and the 13th ranked defense of the Bengals. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Ravens offense has struggled. Detroit's defense is ranked 24th overall, and if Baltimore can't move the football this week, they probably won't find a ton of success against the 3 remaining defenses in the top half of the league they're scheduled to face going forward.
If the Ravens offense is going to find success, it will need the defense to keep the Lions' offense off the field. Two factors bode well for the Ravens defense's odds of limiting time of possession for Matthew Stafford and company. The first factor is that the Lions haven't protected Stafford particularly well. They have, in fact, given up the third most sacks in the league this season with 36. The Ravens, by contrast, have only allowed Flacco to be sacked 23 times. That lead's us to the other factor. Stafford endured an ankle injury on Thanksgiving, and though he has been reported to be a full participant in practice, the gunslinger was limping on the field just over a week ago. It would be a reasonable assumption that Stafford will be at least somewhat limited in his mobility, and that could easily leave him a sitting duck against a Ravens defense that is tied for 10th in the league with 30 sacks thus far on the season. To add to that, a lack of an effective rushing attack will allow the Ravens to pin their ears back and go after him. Terrell Suggs could easily have another 2-sack game against a team that has given up an average of 3.27 sacks per game on the season.
The Lions road record is a surprisingly strong 4-1 at the moment. It's unusual for a dome team to win almost all its games on the road and only a third of its games at home. That may have less to do with the Lions' status as road warriors and more to do with which opponents they actually faced on the road as opposed to in Detroit. The 4 Lions road wins came against a useless Giants team, the Vikings right after they nearly simultaneously lost Sam Bradford, Dalvin Cook, and Stephon Diggs (temporarily) to injuries, a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers, and a Bears team with an inexperienced rookie at quarterback. Now compare that schedule to the Lions' home schedule which included losses to teams such as the Steelers, healthier Vikings, Panthers, and Falcons. That isn't to say that the Lions haven't had some quality road wins. They beat two teams that beat the Ravens in the Bears and Vikings, but those are also opponents with which the Lions have divisional familiarity.
The Ravens aren't in the Lions' division, but there will be a degree of familiarity as the Lions' head coach used to be the Ravens offensive coordinator, and the Lions defensive coordinator used to be a Ravens defensive assistant. Detroit could, thus, have some insight into the Ravens defensive schemes, and the Ravens could have insight into much of what Detroit does on both sides of the ball. The Lions will be coming off of a longer rest period than the Ravens, but the Baltimore doesn't have to travel and is reportedly is a healthier team than possibly at any other point in the season. The Lions have a quarterback coming off of an aforementioned ankle injury, and they'll be missing their starting strong safety. This should open things up for a Ravens rushing offense that has already found a good deal of success this season, and it should help open things up for a Ravens passing game that has been worse this year than nearly any other point in team history.
It's important for fans in Baltimore to remember that this game isn't a must-win contest. It would be huge if the Ravens could put down a team with a weak defense and a one-dimensional offense, but if Stafford has a big day and the Ravens can't manage to force any meaningful turnovers, this could be a shootout Baltimore simply isn't equipped to win. With that said, if the Browns can put up 24 points on this Lions defense, I have no doubt the Ravens can do better considering their homefield advantage and strong rushing offense. Even if Baltimore doesn't win tomorrow, the Ravens still have extremely winnable games coming up against the Colts, Browns, and Bengals, and winning just those three games would give the Ravens a 9-7 record and likely a wildcard berth in the playoffs. If the Ravens CAN manage to win on Sunday, they could potentially reach 9 wins by the second to last week of the season. If getting to 9 wins before the end of the season allows the Ravens to clinch a playoff spot a week early, as I have mentioned in previous posts, Harbaugh could afford to rest his starters in the final game of the regular season the way he did the last time the Ravens won a Super Bowl. I'm not saying this team is anywhere remotely as good as the one that emerged victorious in February of 2013, but an extra by week before the wildcard round of the playoffs would likely go a long way to ensure Joe Flacco doesn't make his very first early playoff exit.
THE PICKS
VIKINGS AT FALCONS- The Falcons have heated up as of late, but they're not strong enough to put up big points on this defense, and their not stout enough defensively to stop a surprisingly impressive Vikings offense. VIKINGS 31-24
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- The two remaining games against the Patriots are a big reason the Ravens will likely maintain their lead in the playoff push over the Bills. The Patriots have averaged over 36 points per game in the last 3 weeks, and they've won their last 7 straight...good luck Tyrod. PATRIOTS 42-23
49ERS AT BEARS- Jimmy Garoppolo will ultimately be an improvement over the crappy quarterbacks the 49ers have used this season, but he's still learning San Francisco's offense. The Bears aren't a particularly great team, but they're better than the 49ers, and they own homefield advantage this week. BEARS 26-17
BUCCANEERS AT PACKERS- The Packers found a nice rhythm last week against the Steelers even they did ultimately lose. I truly liked what a I saw on the road against a top defense. This is the week where Green Bay beats up on an opponent much lesser than Pittsburgh. Oh and Aaron Jones is reportedly going to return to add a dimension to the Green Bay offense. PACKERS 34-21
TEXANS AT TITANS- The Titans have won 5 of their last 6 games and will out pace the Texans offensively. TITANS 23-13
BRONCOS AT DOLPHINS- This is an evenly matched game because both of these teams are doing so incredibly poorly right now. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Broncos, who have scored an average of 14 points per game and allowed an average of just over 29 points per game during their current 7 game losing streak, are not going to win this game. DOLPHINS 27-19
CHIEFS AT JETS- Both of these teams have only a single win over their last 6 games. It's difficult, however, to know why a Chiefs team that is struggling so hard to score each week would be favored to win this game. The Chiefs appear to be given too much credit for their dominant streak with which they began the season, but one particular factor appears to have derailed their season, and it's not one that many people would expect. Speedy young wide receiver Chris Conley didn't put up monster statistics this season, but his presence helped to stretch the field and take pressure off of the Chiefs' other weapons. Conley last played against the Texans, and that was the last game of the Chiefs' winning streak. With Conley on the field, the Chiefs scored an average of 32.8 points per game, and without Conley, the Chiefs have scored an average of only 18 points per game. The Jets haven't fared much better, but they haven't been quite as offensively anemic as of late. I'm going with the home team here. JETS 21-17
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have lost a pair of upset games this season, but they dominated the Colts 27-0 in Indianapolis earlier, and it's unreasonable to assume the Colts will find significantly more success in Jacksonville. JAGUARS 30-7
BROWNS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are red-hot at the moment and they know very well they can overtake the Chiefs for their division lead. The Browns will get Josh Gordon back, so this will be a more competitive game than many realize, but it's difficult to think that the Browns will be able to travel across the country and outscore Philip Rivers the way he he's playing right now. The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7 games with their two losses coming in narrow fashion against the Patriots and Jaguars. The Chargers have found a particular offensive rhythm over the past couple of weeks with a total of 82 points scored. This team is dangerous. CHARGERS 38-24
GIANTS AT RAIDERS- Geno Smith? Well that made this one quite easy. RAIDERS 21-13
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers have an excellent road record of 5-1 this season, but the way they played against a losing Jets squad last week, it's difficult to thing the Saints offense won't rack up a ton of points in this one. Oh and the Saints already beat the Panthers in Charlotte earlier this season--badly (34-13). SAINTS 42-24
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Rams already beat the Cardinals 33-0 a little over a month ago. RAMS 28-13
EAGLES AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks are a shell of their formers selves without an intact legion of boom. The Eagles are the most complete team in the league and shouldn't struggle to move the ball against a team that has lost at home to both the Falcons and Redskins over the last month. EAGLES 31-21
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals don't have nearly enough firepower to keep this competitive against a Steelers offense that's hitting its stride as of late. The Bengals will also be without a pair of starting linebackers going into a game where they'll need all the defensive playmakers they can muster. STEELERS 33-17
LIONS AT RAVENS- The Lions will be without their starting center and their starting strong safety today. Matthew Stafford is also just over a week removed from an ankle injury, and after he incurred that injury, he was 3-6 for 7 passing yards against the Vikings last week. I'm sure he's feeling someone better and he's been shot full of pain killers, but it's difficult to imagine that Stafford will be 100% in the mobility department. The Ravens are as healthy as they're going to be at this time of year, and they shouldn't struggle to move the ball against a team that struggles to stop the run the way Detroit does. With that said, this will be a long day if Baltimore can't get pressure on Stafford. Justin Tucker will come up big today with 4 critical field goals. RAVENS 26-24
BUCKLE UP, BALTIMORE. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE RAVENS PLAY THEIR BEST, MOST PHYSICAL FOOTBALL! HEEEERE KITTY-KITTY-KITTY...
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Last Monday's win over a thoroughly broken Texans squad displayed some glaring weaknesses in Baltimore's defensive unit. One of the top 3 most talented receivers in the league found ways to embarrass the Ravens' top corner, Jimmy Smith, despite the fact that Houston was missing both its starting quarterback and #2 receiver to help take pressure off of the #1. For the first time in my memory, Jimmy Smith was physically dominated and repeatedly humiliated by DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins didn't find the endzone, and he didn't put up Antonio Brown caliber numbers, but that's because what the Ravens sometimes lack in coverage skills they make up for with turnovers. This isn't a Ravens defense that just stonewalls an opponent. They've nearly all of their worst opponents to move the ball--sometimes with startling ease. Teams have run the ball right through the teeth of the Ravens front seven many times this season, and they even did so at times after Brandon Williams returned to health.
A huge part of what made the Ravens run defense more dominant early on in the season was the physical dominance of Brent Urban. Urban has since gone on injured reserve, and his run stuffing ability has been sorely missed for much of the 2017 season. Fortunately for the Ravens, the Lions run the football quite poorly. Detroit ranks 30th in the league in rushing, and that will help Baltimore turn them into a relatively one-dimensional opponent. Most of the Ravens losses have come against teams with top 10 rushing offenses. The Jaguars rank first in the league running the football, the Vikings rank 7th, the Bears rank 8th, and despite not ranking in the top 10, the Steelers have one of the best running backs in the game who had a particularly strong game against Baltimore earlier this season. Fittingly, nearly all of the Ravens' wins have come against opponents ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing as the Bengals rank 31st, the Miami ranks 29th, Oakland ranks 27th, Green Bay ranks 22nd, and Cleveland ranks 18th.
Not only is Detroit's rush offense weak this year, but they also struggle to stop the run...and the pass. Detroit ranks 22nd against the pass and 22nd against the run. If there's one thing the Ravens have faced this season it's elite defenses, so a defense ranked in the bottom third of the league will be a merciful break for a Baltimore offense ranked near dead last in total yardage. The Ravens have had to face the top ranked defense of the Jaguars, the 4th ranked defense of the Steelers, the 5th ranked defense of the Vikings, the 9th ranked defense of the Browns, the 11th ranked defense of the Titans, the 12th ranked defense of the Bears, and the 13th ranked defense of the Bengals. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Ravens offense has struggled. Detroit's defense is ranked 24th overall, and if Baltimore can't move the football this week, they probably won't find a ton of success against the 3 remaining defenses in the top half of the league they're scheduled to face going forward.
If the Ravens offense is going to find success, it will need the defense to keep the Lions' offense off the field. Two factors bode well for the Ravens defense's odds of limiting time of possession for Matthew Stafford and company. The first factor is that the Lions haven't protected Stafford particularly well. They have, in fact, given up the third most sacks in the league this season with 36. The Ravens, by contrast, have only allowed Flacco to be sacked 23 times. That lead's us to the other factor. Stafford endured an ankle injury on Thanksgiving, and though he has been reported to be a full participant in practice, the gunslinger was limping on the field just over a week ago. It would be a reasonable assumption that Stafford will be at least somewhat limited in his mobility, and that could easily leave him a sitting duck against a Ravens defense that is tied for 10th in the league with 30 sacks thus far on the season. To add to that, a lack of an effective rushing attack will allow the Ravens to pin their ears back and go after him. Terrell Suggs could easily have another 2-sack game against a team that has given up an average of 3.27 sacks per game on the season.
The Lions road record is a surprisingly strong 4-1 at the moment. It's unusual for a dome team to win almost all its games on the road and only a third of its games at home. That may have less to do with the Lions' status as road warriors and more to do with which opponents they actually faced on the road as opposed to in Detroit. The 4 Lions road wins came against a useless Giants team, the Vikings right after they nearly simultaneously lost Sam Bradford, Dalvin Cook, and Stephon Diggs (temporarily) to injuries, a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers, and a Bears team with an inexperienced rookie at quarterback. Now compare that schedule to the Lions' home schedule which included losses to teams such as the Steelers, healthier Vikings, Panthers, and Falcons. That isn't to say that the Lions haven't had some quality road wins. They beat two teams that beat the Ravens in the Bears and Vikings, but those are also opponents with which the Lions have divisional familiarity.
The Ravens aren't in the Lions' division, but there will be a degree of familiarity as the Lions' head coach used to be the Ravens offensive coordinator, and the Lions defensive coordinator used to be a Ravens defensive assistant. Detroit could, thus, have some insight into the Ravens defensive schemes, and the Ravens could have insight into much of what Detroit does on both sides of the ball. The Lions will be coming off of a longer rest period than the Ravens, but the Baltimore doesn't have to travel and is reportedly is a healthier team than possibly at any other point in the season. The Lions have a quarterback coming off of an aforementioned ankle injury, and they'll be missing their starting strong safety. This should open things up for a Ravens rushing offense that has already found a good deal of success this season, and it should help open things up for a Ravens passing game that has been worse this year than nearly any other point in team history.
It's important for fans in Baltimore to remember that this game isn't a must-win contest. It would be huge if the Ravens could put down a team with a weak defense and a one-dimensional offense, but if Stafford has a big day and the Ravens can't manage to force any meaningful turnovers, this could be a shootout Baltimore simply isn't equipped to win. With that said, if the Browns can put up 24 points on this Lions defense, I have no doubt the Ravens can do better considering their homefield advantage and strong rushing offense. Even if Baltimore doesn't win tomorrow, the Ravens still have extremely winnable games coming up against the Colts, Browns, and Bengals, and winning just those three games would give the Ravens a 9-7 record and likely a wildcard berth in the playoffs. If the Ravens CAN manage to win on Sunday, they could potentially reach 9 wins by the second to last week of the season. If getting to 9 wins before the end of the season allows the Ravens to clinch a playoff spot a week early, as I have mentioned in previous posts, Harbaugh could afford to rest his starters in the final game of the regular season the way he did the last time the Ravens won a Super Bowl. I'm not saying this team is anywhere remotely as good as the one that emerged victorious in February of 2013, but an extra by week before the wildcard round of the playoffs would likely go a long way to ensure Joe Flacco doesn't make his very first early playoff exit.
THE PICKS
VIKINGS AT FALCONS- The Falcons have heated up as of late, but they're not strong enough to put up big points on this defense, and their not stout enough defensively to stop a surprisingly impressive Vikings offense. VIKINGS 31-24
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- The two remaining games against the Patriots are a big reason the Ravens will likely maintain their lead in the playoff push over the Bills. The Patriots have averaged over 36 points per game in the last 3 weeks, and they've won their last 7 straight...good luck Tyrod. PATRIOTS 42-23
49ERS AT BEARS- Jimmy Garoppolo will ultimately be an improvement over the crappy quarterbacks the 49ers have used this season, but he's still learning San Francisco's offense. The Bears aren't a particularly great team, but they're better than the 49ers, and they own homefield advantage this week. BEARS 26-17
BUCCANEERS AT PACKERS- The Packers found a nice rhythm last week against the Steelers even they did ultimately lose. I truly liked what a I saw on the road against a top defense. This is the week where Green Bay beats up on an opponent much lesser than Pittsburgh. Oh and Aaron Jones is reportedly going to return to add a dimension to the Green Bay offense. PACKERS 34-21
TEXANS AT TITANS- The Titans have won 5 of their last 6 games and will out pace the Texans offensively. TITANS 23-13
BRONCOS AT DOLPHINS- This is an evenly matched game because both of these teams are doing so incredibly poorly right now. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Broncos, who have scored an average of 14 points per game and allowed an average of just over 29 points per game during their current 7 game losing streak, are not going to win this game. DOLPHINS 27-19
CHIEFS AT JETS- Both of these teams have only a single win over their last 6 games. It's difficult, however, to know why a Chiefs team that is struggling so hard to score each week would be favored to win this game. The Chiefs appear to be given too much credit for their dominant streak with which they began the season, but one particular factor appears to have derailed their season, and it's not one that many people would expect. Speedy young wide receiver Chris Conley didn't put up monster statistics this season, but his presence helped to stretch the field and take pressure off of the Chiefs' other weapons. Conley last played against the Texans, and that was the last game of the Chiefs' winning streak. With Conley on the field, the Chiefs scored an average of 32.8 points per game, and without Conley, the Chiefs have scored an average of only 18 points per game. The Jets haven't fared much better, but they haven't been quite as offensively anemic as of late. I'm going with the home team here. JETS 21-17
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have lost a pair of upset games this season, but they dominated the Colts 27-0 in Indianapolis earlier, and it's unreasonable to assume the Colts will find significantly more success in Jacksonville. JAGUARS 30-7
BROWNS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are red-hot at the moment and they know very well they can overtake the Chiefs for their division lead. The Browns will get Josh Gordon back, so this will be a more competitive game than many realize, but it's difficult to think that the Browns will be able to travel across the country and outscore Philip Rivers the way he he's playing right now. The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7 games with their two losses coming in narrow fashion against the Patriots and Jaguars. The Chargers have found a particular offensive rhythm over the past couple of weeks with a total of 82 points scored. This team is dangerous. CHARGERS 38-24
GIANTS AT RAIDERS- Geno Smith? Well that made this one quite easy. RAIDERS 21-13
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers have an excellent road record of 5-1 this season, but the way they played against a losing Jets squad last week, it's difficult to thing the Saints offense won't rack up a ton of points in this one. Oh and the Saints already beat the Panthers in Charlotte earlier this season--badly (34-13). SAINTS 42-24
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Rams already beat the Cardinals 33-0 a little over a month ago. RAMS 28-13
EAGLES AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks are a shell of their formers selves without an intact legion of boom. The Eagles are the most complete team in the league and shouldn't struggle to move the ball against a team that has lost at home to both the Falcons and Redskins over the last month. EAGLES 31-21
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals don't have nearly enough firepower to keep this competitive against a Steelers offense that's hitting its stride as of late. The Bengals will also be without a pair of starting linebackers going into a game where they'll need all the defensive playmakers they can muster. STEELERS 33-17
LIONS AT RAVENS- The Lions will be without their starting center and their starting strong safety today. Matthew Stafford is also just over a week removed from an ankle injury, and after he incurred that injury, he was 3-6 for 7 passing yards against the Vikings last week. I'm sure he's feeling someone better and he's been shot full of pain killers, but it's difficult to imagine that Stafford will be 100% in the mobility department. The Ravens are as healthy as they're going to be at this time of year, and they shouldn't struggle to move the ball against a team that struggles to stop the run the way Detroit does. With that said, this will be a long day if Baltimore can't get pressure on Stafford. Justin Tucker will come up big today with 4 critical field goals. RAVENS 26-24
BUCKLE UP, BALTIMORE. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE RAVENS PLAY THEIR BEST, MOST PHYSICAL FOOTBALL! HEEEERE KITTY-KITTY-KITTY...
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, November 26, 2017
WEEK 12 NFL PREDICTIONS
Thanksgiving didn't feature much in the way of exciting NFL football. The Redskins-Giants game was one of the most painful displays of professional football in the last several decades, the Cowboys scored only a single touchdown for the 3rd straight week without Ezekiel Elliott, and the Vikings tightened their stranglehold on the NFC North with their win in Detroit. These games might appear to have nothing to do with the Ravens, but there are at least a couple of points that may prove pertinent to the Ravens' upcoming schedule.
The Detroit Lions will play the Ravens in Week 13, and if Thanksgiving's first game was any indication, that won't be an easy task. It certainly seemed at times as though the Vikings dominated the Lions on Thursday, but Detroit finished only one touchdown behind. One shouldn't glean too much from a divisional game considering they're often competitive despite a disparity in the overall strength of the teams playing, but the Lions are no sort of pushovers. Not only will the Lions be coming off of nearly a week and a half of rest, but they also boast a 4-1 road record on the season, and the Ravens haven't been invincible at home in years.
Beating the Lions could very well be a tough task, but it also might not be necessary considering the rest of the Ravens remaining schedule. It will likely take only 9 wins to clinch a wildcard spot, and the other teams within striking distance have much tougher upcoming opponents. One team thought to be totally out of the running for a playoff spot is the Chargers. Philip Rivers and company lost 6 of their first 9 games, but they have now won 5 of their last 7 to improve to 5-6 on the season. What has been even more impressive is just how explosive the Chargers offense has been for the past two weeks. They scored a whopping 54 points against the Bills, and then Rivers threw for well over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving night.
The Chargers now find themselves one game back from a wilting but division-leading Chiefs team that appeared to be the most dominant force in the AFC through the first 6 weeks of the season. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Chargers could easily overtake them as division leader in the AFC West as every team left on their schedule is quite beatable. If that happens, it's quite possible that the Ravens could find themselves faced with a road trip to California in the first round of the playoffs. This all only goes to show that one shouldn't get too high or low about a team's early struggles in an NFL season. The regular season is 4 months long and injuries and adjustments to opponents' schemes can change the landscape of competition profoundly over only a handful of weeks.
The Ravens, unlike the Chargers, don't have a great opportunity to overtake their most hated rivals, the Steelers, for the lead in their division, but, like the Chargers, they're starting to heat up at the right time. Suggs and company have pitched two shutouts in their last 3 games, and they have the highest margin of victory of any team in the NFL as they've outscored opponents 137-27 in their five wins. The Ravens have struggled against many of the better teams in the league, but they've shown unquestionably that they can dominate mediocre and bad teams. That's quite convenient as the Texans happen to be a bad team since the season-ending injury to Deshaun Watson's knee.
Just how bad ARE the Texans? Well they lost 4 of their last 6 games, but their only win over the last month came against a Cardinals team that has essentially lost all hope without Carson Palmer. The Texans also lost the most dominant defensive player in the league when J.J. Watt went down with a season ending injury. The Texans will be without two starting offensive linemen on Monday night, and wide receiver Will Fuller has been ruled out as well. DeAndre Hopskins is the only true offensive weapon the Texans have left, and he has even been dealing with a foot injury of his own though he is expected to play on Monday night.
There was a bit of a scare earlier this week that the Ravens would be missing two of their own starting offensive linemen with Ronnie Stanley still in concussion protocol and Austin Howard held out of practice with a reported knee injury. Both men, however, returned to practice by Friday on a full participant level, and that's relieving considering the fact that a ferocious pass rusher will soon take the field with his sights on Joe Flacco.
Jadeveon Clowney is the only remaining pass rusher left this season of the Watt-Mercilus-Clowney trio. He, nevertheless, has found a way to generate a consistent pass rush and be disruptive to opposing offenses by himself. With 8 sacks on the year, Clowney has more than any Ravens pass rusher as Terrell Suggs leads Baltimore with 7.5. Teams have trouble keying in on the young, dynamic playmaker because the Texans line him up all over the defensive front seven. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Texans have Clowney pick on the Ravens' comparatively weak guards considering the strength and track record of the Baltimore tackles and center this season. Clowney is not, however, the best pass rusher the Ravens have faced this season, and his location simply needs to be identified prior to the snap so he can be properly accounted for and double-teamed.
Another Texans player that will likely require a double team all night is DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins is easily one of the top 3 receivers in the league this season, and despite not having a legitimate starting quarterback to deliver him the ball, he has still managed to amass 879 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Hopkins' production hasn't waned since Deshaun Watson went down for the season, but that might change profoundly this week as the Texans #2 receiver and best deep threat with 19.2 yards per catch, Will Fuller, will not play. Fuller caught 7 touchdown passes in 2017 which is 30% of the Texans' total 23 receiving touchdowns. The speedy Notre Dame product ran a 4.32 official NFL combine 40 yard dash in 2016, and his absence will allow the Ravens to zero in on Hopkins all game.
There are two things the Texans have done unquestionably well this season: running the football and stopping the run. Houston ranks 6th in the league in rushing yards per game, and rank 7th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. That doesn't mean that it's impossible to run the football on them, and it certainly doesn't mean that their running game can't be stopped, but I don't expect a monstrous day on the ground for Alex Collins and company. The Texans will likely put forth the bulk of their defensive efforts to stacking the box and stopping the Ravens rushing attack. This, they likely hope, will force Flacco to throw the football in a year where he has struggled mightily to do so. The issue with that strategy is that the Texans rank 23rd in the league in passing yards allowed, and they rank dead last in passing touchdowns allowed. If there was ever a day where Ravens wide receivers, tight ends, and pass-catching running backs would feast on an opposing pass defense, it would be Monday night.
The Ravens offense may still struggle early to find a rhythm and pull away from the Texans until the second half, but I fully expect the Ravens defense to hold the Texans nearly scoreless, if not entirely scoreless. With a full staff, this Texans team is dangerous, but this roster is a shell of its former self with over half of its top playmakers on injured reserve. If Baltimore can't put this wounded animal down in primetime on Monday night, they're going to struggle hard the following week against a much better Detroit Lions squad. Let's just consider this week to be phase one of Operation Beat-the-Teams-They're-Supposed-to-Beat. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- The Buccanners' road record has been an absolutely abysmal 1-4 this season, and the Falcons are heating up at the right time winning 3 of their last 4 games including a major upset of the Seahawks in Seattle last week. This is a divisional game, however, so it will be closer than many expect. FALCONS 31-28
BROWNS AT BENGALS- The Bengals will keep fairly dim playoff hopes alive with a win over the winless Browns this week. BENGALS 24-14
TITANS AT COLTS- The Colts have still fought hard despite being basically eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time. The Titans handled the Colts 36-22 in Nashville, and I expect a similar performance this week as Marcus Mariota isn't hobbled the way he was the first time these two teams faced one another. TITANS 33-17
BILLS AT CHIEFS- This is an interesting matchup because it features two teams that looked dominant earlier this season, but have fallen off as of late and desperately need a win. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Bills have lost their last 3 straight. Tyrod Taylor will start, but he will be without the recently acquired target Kelvin Benjamin. The Bills defense has been so insanely poor as of late that I have to give the edge to the Chiefs at home. The Bills defense has, in fact, allowed an average of 45 points per game over the last 3 weeks. CHIEFS 34-23
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- It was only a matter of time before Brandin Cooks became familiarize with the Patriots offensive system and began to flourish. He has more than made up for Julian Edelman's absence with 786 receiving yards thus far this season. The Dolphins have sadly lost their last 4 games, and with two upcoming games against the Patriots their playoff chances are slim to none. The question going forward will be whether they draft a QB or stick with a recovered Tannehill for the foreseeable future. PATRIOTS 38-20
PANTHERS AT JETS- The Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 games and the Panthers are 7-3. The Panthers have lost a letdown game or two this season, but it's difficult to imagine them dropping one to this team. PANTHERS 24-17
BEARS AT EAGLES- The Eagles are the most complete team in the NFL. EAGLES 35-21
SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS- These teams are usually competitive when playing one another, but it's difficult to believe the 49ers will be able to contain Russell Wilson. SEAHAWKS 28-24
BRONCOS AT RAIDERS- This is a matchup of two of the best teams from the previous couple of seasons...and they both now suck. The edge has to go to the Raiders who have at least won 2 of their last 4 games. RAIDERS 30-23
SAINTS AT RAMS- This is easily the best, most intriguing matchup of the week. Both the Rams and Saints have been strong for months now. The Rams' only losses have come against the Seahawks when the Seahawk's defense still had its biggest pieces and then last week against a defensively ferocious Vikings. The Saints haven't been pitted against an elite defense in quite some time, and the Rams rank 7th in points allowed this season. Considering how close the Redskins came last week to beating the Saints in New Orleans, I have to believe the Rams will be strong enough to knock them off in Los Angeles on Sunday. RAMS 31-28
JAGUARS AT CARDINALS- Jalen Ramsey WILL be playing, and the Cardinals will be losing. JAGUARS 37-13
PACKERS AT STEELERS- This is the weakest Packers team I've ever known. The Steelers defense is top 3 in the league and will easily stifle this decapitated group from Green Bay. STEELERS 42-10
TEXANS AT RAVENS- The Texans are down to essentially one offensive weapon, and they're about to go against the second rated secondary in the league. The Ravens shouldn't allow Tom Savage to breathe, and they'll likely pick him off as he tries to force the ball to DeAndre Hopkins in double and triple coverage. The Texans will do whatever they can to stop the Ravens rushing attack, and that means we'll see what Joe Flacco can do. I have a feeling Danny Woodhead will catch at least 5-6 passes and allow Joe to get rid of the ball quick enough to neutralize pressure. If the Ravens offense can't open up through the air against this team, they're going to have a hard time against any playoff team they might face assuming they make it that far. RAVENS 24-3
IT'S BLACKOUT TIME AT THE BANK ON MONDAY NIGHT! TIME FOR THE RAVENS DEFENSE TO FEAST! I HOPE EVERYONE HAD A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Detroit Lions will play the Ravens in Week 13, and if Thanksgiving's first game was any indication, that won't be an easy task. It certainly seemed at times as though the Vikings dominated the Lions on Thursday, but Detroit finished only one touchdown behind. One shouldn't glean too much from a divisional game considering they're often competitive despite a disparity in the overall strength of the teams playing, but the Lions are no sort of pushovers. Not only will the Lions be coming off of nearly a week and a half of rest, but they also boast a 4-1 road record on the season, and the Ravens haven't been invincible at home in years.
Beating the Lions could very well be a tough task, but it also might not be necessary considering the rest of the Ravens remaining schedule. It will likely take only 9 wins to clinch a wildcard spot, and the other teams within striking distance have much tougher upcoming opponents. One team thought to be totally out of the running for a playoff spot is the Chargers. Philip Rivers and company lost 6 of their first 9 games, but they have now won 5 of their last 7 to improve to 5-6 on the season. What has been even more impressive is just how explosive the Chargers offense has been for the past two weeks. They scored a whopping 54 points against the Bills, and then Rivers threw for well over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving night.
The Chargers now find themselves one game back from a wilting but division-leading Chiefs team that appeared to be the most dominant force in the AFC through the first 6 weeks of the season. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Chargers could easily overtake them as division leader in the AFC West as every team left on their schedule is quite beatable. If that happens, it's quite possible that the Ravens could find themselves faced with a road trip to California in the first round of the playoffs. This all only goes to show that one shouldn't get too high or low about a team's early struggles in an NFL season. The regular season is 4 months long and injuries and adjustments to opponents' schemes can change the landscape of competition profoundly over only a handful of weeks.
The Ravens, unlike the Chargers, don't have a great opportunity to overtake their most hated rivals, the Steelers, for the lead in their division, but, like the Chargers, they're starting to heat up at the right time. Suggs and company have pitched two shutouts in their last 3 games, and they have the highest margin of victory of any team in the NFL as they've outscored opponents 137-27 in their five wins. The Ravens have struggled against many of the better teams in the league, but they've shown unquestionably that they can dominate mediocre and bad teams. That's quite convenient as the Texans happen to be a bad team since the season-ending injury to Deshaun Watson's knee.
Just how bad ARE the Texans? Well they lost 4 of their last 6 games, but their only win over the last month came against a Cardinals team that has essentially lost all hope without Carson Palmer. The Texans also lost the most dominant defensive player in the league when J.J. Watt went down with a season ending injury. The Texans will be without two starting offensive linemen on Monday night, and wide receiver Will Fuller has been ruled out as well. DeAndre Hopskins is the only true offensive weapon the Texans have left, and he has even been dealing with a foot injury of his own though he is expected to play on Monday night.
There was a bit of a scare earlier this week that the Ravens would be missing two of their own starting offensive linemen with Ronnie Stanley still in concussion protocol and Austin Howard held out of practice with a reported knee injury. Both men, however, returned to practice by Friday on a full participant level, and that's relieving considering the fact that a ferocious pass rusher will soon take the field with his sights on Joe Flacco.
Jadeveon Clowney is the only remaining pass rusher left this season of the Watt-Mercilus-Clowney trio. He, nevertheless, has found a way to generate a consistent pass rush and be disruptive to opposing offenses by himself. With 8 sacks on the year, Clowney has more than any Ravens pass rusher as Terrell Suggs leads Baltimore with 7.5. Teams have trouble keying in on the young, dynamic playmaker because the Texans line him up all over the defensive front seven. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Texans have Clowney pick on the Ravens' comparatively weak guards considering the strength and track record of the Baltimore tackles and center this season. Clowney is not, however, the best pass rusher the Ravens have faced this season, and his location simply needs to be identified prior to the snap so he can be properly accounted for and double-teamed.
Another Texans player that will likely require a double team all night is DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins is easily one of the top 3 receivers in the league this season, and despite not having a legitimate starting quarterback to deliver him the ball, he has still managed to amass 879 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Hopkins' production hasn't waned since Deshaun Watson went down for the season, but that might change profoundly this week as the Texans #2 receiver and best deep threat with 19.2 yards per catch, Will Fuller, will not play. Fuller caught 7 touchdown passes in 2017 which is 30% of the Texans' total 23 receiving touchdowns. The speedy Notre Dame product ran a 4.32 official NFL combine 40 yard dash in 2016, and his absence will allow the Ravens to zero in on Hopkins all game.
There are two things the Texans have done unquestionably well this season: running the football and stopping the run. Houston ranks 6th in the league in rushing yards per game, and rank 7th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. That doesn't mean that it's impossible to run the football on them, and it certainly doesn't mean that their running game can't be stopped, but I don't expect a monstrous day on the ground for Alex Collins and company. The Texans will likely put forth the bulk of their defensive efforts to stacking the box and stopping the Ravens rushing attack. This, they likely hope, will force Flacco to throw the football in a year where he has struggled mightily to do so. The issue with that strategy is that the Texans rank 23rd in the league in passing yards allowed, and they rank dead last in passing touchdowns allowed. If there was ever a day where Ravens wide receivers, tight ends, and pass-catching running backs would feast on an opposing pass defense, it would be Monday night.
The Ravens offense may still struggle early to find a rhythm and pull away from the Texans until the second half, but I fully expect the Ravens defense to hold the Texans nearly scoreless, if not entirely scoreless. With a full staff, this Texans team is dangerous, but this roster is a shell of its former self with over half of its top playmakers on injured reserve. If Baltimore can't put this wounded animal down in primetime on Monday night, they're going to struggle hard the following week against a much better Detroit Lions squad. Let's just consider this week to be phase one of Operation Beat-the-Teams-They're-Supposed-to-Beat. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- The Buccanners' road record has been an absolutely abysmal 1-4 this season, and the Falcons are heating up at the right time winning 3 of their last 4 games including a major upset of the Seahawks in Seattle last week. This is a divisional game, however, so it will be closer than many expect. FALCONS 31-28
BROWNS AT BENGALS- The Bengals will keep fairly dim playoff hopes alive with a win over the winless Browns this week. BENGALS 24-14
TITANS AT COLTS- The Colts have still fought hard despite being basically eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time. The Titans handled the Colts 36-22 in Nashville, and I expect a similar performance this week as Marcus Mariota isn't hobbled the way he was the first time these two teams faced one another. TITANS 33-17
BILLS AT CHIEFS- This is an interesting matchup because it features two teams that looked dominant earlier this season, but have fallen off as of late and desperately need a win. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Bills have lost their last 3 straight. Tyrod Taylor will start, but he will be without the recently acquired target Kelvin Benjamin. The Bills defense has been so insanely poor as of late that I have to give the edge to the Chiefs at home. The Bills defense has, in fact, allowed an average of 45 points per game over the last 3 weeks. CHIEFS 34-23
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- It was only a matter of time before Brandin Cooks became familiarize with the Patriots offensive system and began to flourish. He has more than made up for Julian Edelman's absence with 786 receiving yards thus far this season. The Dolphins have sadly lost their last 4 games, and with two upcoming games against the Patriots their playoff chances are slim to none. The question going forward will be whether they draft a QB or stick with a recovered Tannehill for the foreseeable future. PATRIOTS 38-20
PANTHERS AT JETS- The Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 games and the Panthers are 7-3. The Panthers have lost a letdown game or two this season, but it's difficult to imagine them dropping one to this team. PANTHERS 24-17
BEARS AT EAGLES- The Eagles are the most complete team in the NFL. EAGLES 35-21
SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS- These teams are usually competitive when playing one another, but it's difficult to believe the 49ers will be able to contain Russell Wilson. SEAHAWKS 28-24
BRONCOS AT RAIDERS- This is a matchup of two of the best teams from the previous couple of seasons...and they both now suck. The edge has to go to the Raiders who have at least won 2 of their last 4 games. RAIDERS 30-23
SAINTS AT RAMS- This is easily the best, most intriguing matchup of the week. Both the Rams and Saints have been strong for months now. The Rams' only losses have come against the Seahawks when the Seahawk's defense still had its biggest pieces and then last week against a defensively ferocious Vikings. The Saints haven't been pitted against an elite defense in quite some time, and the Rams rank 7th in points allowed this season. Considering how close the Redskins came last week to beating the Saints in New Orleans, I have to believe the Rams will be strong enough to knock them off in Los Angeles on Sunday. RAMS 31-28
JAGUARS AT CARDINALS- Jalen Ramsey WILL be playing, and the Cardinals will be losing. JAGUARS 37-13
PACKERS AT STEELERS- This is the weakest Packers team I've ever known. The Steelers defense is top 3 in the league and will easily stifle this decapitated group from Green Bay. STEELERS 42-10
TEXANS AT RAVENS- The Texans are down to essentially one offensive weapon, and they're about to go against the second rated secondary in the league. The Ravens shouldn't allow Tom Savage to breathe, and they'll likely pick him off as he tries to force the ball to DeAndre Hopkins in double and triple coverage. The Texans will do whatever they can to stop the Ravens rushing attack, and that means we'll see what Joe Flacco can do. I have a feeling Danny Woodhead will catch at least 5-6 passes and allow Joe to get rid of the ball quick enough to neutralize pressure. If the Ravens offense can't open up through the air against this team, they're going to have a hard time against any playoff team they might face assuming they make it that far. RAVENS 24-3
IT'S BLACKOUT TIME AT THE BANK ON MONDAY NIGHT! TIME FOR THE RAVENS DEFENSE TO FEAST! I HOPE EVERYONE HAD A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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