We have discussed for weeks that it wasn't absolutely necessary for the Ravens to beat the Steelers to go to the playoffs, but MAN that was tough to watch 11 point and 9 point leads slip away in the forth quarter. The absences of Jimmy Smith and Ryan Shazier proved disturbingly profound as the Ravens ran all over the Steelers, and the Steelers passed for an ungodly number of yards against a Ravens secondary that hadn't allowed even just a 300 yard passer all season. Unlike last Christmas' last second gut-wrenching loss in Pittsburgh, this season's gut-wrenching loss does not knock the Ravens out of playoff contention. It does hurt the Ravens odds of being able to manufacture a Week 17 semi-bye week in which they could rest their starters against the Bengals. There are, however, still some circumstances that would allow for that to happen, and they're not tremendously unlikely.
A Colts win last weekend in the snow over a weakened Bills team would have gone a long way to potentially allowing the Ravens to clinch a wildcard spot by simply winning their next two games. Sadly, however, Adam Vinatieri missed what would have been a game-winning field goal as time expired in regulation, and the Bills ended up winning the game in overtime. Now Buffalo technically possesses the final wildcard spot for the moment, and they find themselves staring down 3 divisional matchups to finish their season. The return of Tyrod Taylor will certainly give the Bills an offensive boost, but they face the Dolphins in Buffalo, the Patriots, and then the Dolphins in Miami to finish the season. No one is going to accuse the Dolphins of being playoff contenders at this point, but they have looked better as of late with a dominant 35-9 win over the Broncos two weeks ago and a surprising 27-20 win over the Patriots last weekend. If the Dolphins can continue their recent momentum with a win this weekend in Buffalo, the implications would be tremendous for Baltimore. One would then have to assume the Patriots would take care of the Bills easily in Foxborough, and then the best Buffalo could do is finish the season 8-8. Every Ravens fan, thus, needs to root hard for the Dolphins this weekend.
Beyond a Dolphins win this weekend, the Ravens would need either the Chiefs or Chargers to lose their next two games in order to potentially be able to rest their starters in Week 17. The fortunate thing for the Ravens is that the Chiefs and Chargers play one another this weekend, and that guarantees that at least ONE of them will lose. The Chiefs could easily lose their next two games against a red-hot Chargers team and a Dolphins team that has come on as of late. If the Chiefs find a way to beat the Chargers, Philip Rivers and his crew will then have to go back out to East coast to face a Jets team that is has a poor road record but goes toe to toe with contenders at home in New Jersey. The odds appear much stronger that the Chiefs, not the Chargers, would drop their next two games, but we'll know Saturday night whether or not Andy Reid and his crew can take a big step towards righting the ship in time to save their season.
The Titans are one of the other wildcard contenders, but at 8-5 with a head-to-head win over the Ravens, the Titans own a tiebreaker over Baltimore if both teams finish the season 9-7. Even if the Titans lose their next two games and drop to 8-7 (as they very well could) their losses would not afford the Ravens the ability to rest their starters in the final week of the regular season. This is because the Titans and Ravens final games are at the same time on the same day. If the Titans played at 1:00 and the Ravens played at 4:25 or 8:30, then the Ravens would know if the Titans had lost out ahead of time and could sit their starters if the Titans lost out. That, unfortunately, will not be the case. The remainder of the Titans' season should, however, still be monitored as Tennessee actually faces three tough games, and if they lose out, could afford the Ravens the ability to snag a wildcard spot even if they drop one of their final three games.
Tennessee has dropped 2 of their last 4 games, and Marcus Mariota's health has played a major factor in the recent dip in production. Last week's perplexing 12-9 loss to the irrelevant Cardinals in conjunction with three dangerous remaining games means that the Titans, once a shoe-in for at least a wildcard spot, now face the possibility of being eliminated entirely. The Titans travel across the country this week to face a revamped 49ers team that has won 3 of its last 4 games with recent acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. If the Titans lose to the 49ers this weekend, they will travel back home to face a ferocious Rams team, and then they'll face a highly motivated Jaguars for the regular season finale. As poorly as the Titans have played as of late, it's entirely possible that they lose all three of these games, and that would dramatically increase the Ravens' odds of squeaking into the playoffs if they finish the regular season 9-7.
Baltimore can ensure a playoff berth by simply winning all three of their remaining games. Losing to the Steelers 39-38 was painful, but it demonstrated that Marty Mornhinweg has truly got the Ravens offense back on track. The defensive letdown was worrisome, but the mistakes that led to the loss are entirely correctable. I doubt there's any Ravens fan that came away from that game thinking that the Ravens wouldn't have a great shot to beat the Steelers if the teams met once again in the post-season. With that said, if the Ravens hope to be physically ready to even GET to the second round of the playoffs to face the Steelers or possibly the Patriots, it would be tremendously helpful to be able to rest their starters in Week 17. Baltimore fans should, therefore, root for both the Bills, and Chiefs or Chargers to lose their next two games, and the Ravens, meanwhile, absolutely MUST handle their own business against a winless Browns team and a Colts team that appears at this point to have given up.
WEEK 15 NFL PICKS
SATURDAY NIGHT
BEARS AT LIONS- It's difficult to imagine a desperate and not-yet-totally-eliminated Lions team losing at home to a Bears team that they beat on the road earlier this season. Sure, the Bears have had 3 rather perplexing wins over AFC North teams and one surprisingly dominant win over the Panthers, but they've been otherwise useless and winless against the rest of the league this season. LIONS 31-24
CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- This is the game of the week to watch for Ravens fans as it will likely have a tremendous impact on the wildcard race. The Chargers have looked sensational from both and offensive and defensive standpoint for most of the last 9 weeks. The Chiefs, on the other hand, recognize that this is their last stand. If they can't win at home tonight, their odds of getting into the playoffs, let alone winning the division, will be quite poor. The Chiefs did surprise me with a sound win against the Raiders last week, but the Chargers have a MUCH better defense than the Chiefs, and their offense is humming to boot. It's difficult to imagine Andy Reid will be able to muster enough to stifle Philip Rivers and score enough against an extremely opportunistic Chargers defense. CHARGERS 23-17
SUNDAY
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- This may just be the most difficult game to predict this weekend. The Bills will have Tyrod Taylor back, but even with him playing, Buffalo has struggled for quite a while now. The Dolphins have only won 2 road games on the season, and they'll be out of their element tomorrow with a high of 28 degrees. The Fins will be motivated because if they win out, they have a decent shot at a wildcard berth, but the Bills also have their backs against the wall and should likely consider this the most winnable game left on their schedule. I hope the Dolphins prove me wrong on this one. C'mon Cutler, show us something. BILLS 27-20
BENGALS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings lost on the road in a close game against a formidable Panthers team last week, but it would be bizarre for them to drop two in a row, especially with the Bengals coming to town. The Bengals gave the Steelers a good fight a couple of weeks ago, but they'll limp wounded into Minnesota after losing 33-7 at home to the Bears last week. The Bengals have had to put Tyler Eifert, Adam Jones, Jeremy Hill, Kevin Minter, and John Ross on injured reserve as of late, while Vontaze Burfict, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Nick Vigil are all ruled out for this week. Marvin Lewis knows he'll lose his job as head coach after this season...but a spot might just open up in Baltimore for either him or Chuck Pagano to return as defensive coordinator. VIKINGS 28-13
JETS AT SAINTS- The Saints will handle their business this week, but the Jets might put up a little bit of a fight. SAINTS 34-24
EAGLES AT GIANTS- The Eagles with Nick Foles are still dramatically superior to the Giants, but I doubt the Eagles have a great shot to win a Super Bowl without Carson Wentz. EAGLES 31-17
CARDINALS AT REDSKINS- The Cardinals have won two of their last 3 games, and they did so against some of the strongest teams in the AFC. Both games, however, were at home. The Redskins have been eliminated from playoff contention and have lost their last 2 games in embarrassing fashion. Hell, let's just go with the Cardinals here. CARDINALS 21-17
PACKERS AT PANTHERS- It's difficult to know just how the Packers will play with Aaron Rodgers back...on the road...against a playoff contender. The Packers have found a rhythm as of late though, and Rodgers totally transforms this team when he's on. If the Jets can take the Panthers right down to the wire, than so can the Packers with Rodgers back. PACKERS 34-30
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars should be able to force enough mistakes to make this a solid win, but it's still a divisional matchup. The Jags clinch a playoff berth with a victory on Sunday--something they haven't done in 10 years. JAGUARS 30-10
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- The Rams have compiled a dominant 5-1 road record, but they lost at home to the Seahawks much earlier this season. Seattle has continued to find a way to win games this season, but their defensive personnel has grown impossibly thin. The Seahawks have lost 3 of their last 6 games, and two of those losses came at home. Pro Bowl Seahawks linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright were injured last week against the Jaguars, and it's difficult to imagine they'll both play. This means the Seahawks will be short-staffed in their ability to stop the thunderous running game of the Rams, and that is in addition to the major losses to the Seahawks secondary that have piled up over the course of this season. RAMS 24-21
PATRIOTS AT STEELERS- The Steelers haven't matched up well against the Patriots in many years. With Rob Gronkowski returning the Patriots lineup, it's difficult to imagine that the Steelers will be able to stop Tom Brady and company considering how many points they gave up to the Ravens offense last week. The Steelers dropped a game to divisional rivals last week, but they were without their biggest weapon. I can't see the Patriots dropping two games in a row when conference supremacy is on the line. This game will, nevertheless, be quite exciting. PATRIOTS 42-34
TITANS AT 49ERS- The Titans have become motivated and dangerous as of late, and the Titans have struggled without Marcus Mariota at full strength. I picked the 49ers to lose twice in the last few weeks, and they made me look stupid. 49ERS 23-21
COWBOYS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders defense won't be able to stop the Cowboys rushing attack, and the Raiders offense is not what it was last season. COWBOYS 35-24
RAVENS AT BROWNS- The return of Josh Gordon has allowed the Browns to look far more competitive in recent weeks, but they don't yet have the might to put teams away. The Ravens handled this team earlier in the season without much from Joe Flacco, but the Ravens have vastly improved their offensive production as they've scored an average of 27.5 points per game over the last 6 weeks after only averaging 18.57 points per game over their first 7 weeks. The Ravens didn't pick off Big Ben once last week, though they had their chances to do so. Expect them to force a far greater number of mistakes from Kizer on Sunday. Get em, Sizzle. RAVENS 28-17
MONDAY
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- I truly believed the Buccaneers would be at least a decent team this season, but with 4 wins on the season and none in over a month, they've been an utter disappointment. The Falcons already beat them soundly in Atlanta, and Tampa Bay isn't exactly a major departure from a distance or weather standpoint. FALCONS 35-23
THE RAVENS CAN PICK THE SPIRITS OF THEIR FANS UP BY TROUNCING THEIR NEXT TWO PATHETIC OPPONENTS. THIS BY NO MEANS SUGGESTS THAT THE BROWNS OR COLTS SHOULD BE TAKEN LIGHTLY, BUT IF THE RAVENS CAN'T BEAT THEM, THEY DON'T DESERVE TO EVEN THINK ABOUT THE POST-SEASON. THE RAVENS SHOWED THEY COULD GO TOE TO TOE WITH ONE OF THE AFC'S TOP TEAMS LAST WEEK, SO IT'S TIME TO DOMINATE AGAINST THREE REMAINING OPPONENTS THAT HAVE A COMBINED WIN TOTAL OF 8 GAMES.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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