Recent optimism about Baltimore's chances of snagging a wildcard berth has Ravens fans feeling quite a bit better about their team than they did only one month ago. Only four weeks ago, Harbaugh and company found themselves staring down yet another year without a trip to the post season. It seemed as though injuries to starters had derailed what could have been a strong season. The Ravens, however, were not the only team to be bitten hard by the injury bug. A string of Ravens opponents experienced monumental losses of key personnel including starting elite quarterbacks and former defensive pro bowlers. Suddenly daunting games against the Texans and Packers that many fans penciled in as certain losses ended up being strong wins. The Ravens then built enough momentum to put together a convincing win last week against the Detroit Lions, and now here they sit with a 7-5 record going into Steelers week. A fairly pessimistic friend of mine recently expressed concern that the Ravens still wouldn't get into the playoffs, so I felt compelled to map out the various scenarios that would lead to the Ravens making or not making the playoffs in the 2017 season.
With a 7-5 record, the Ravens are the clear-cut frontrunners for the final wildcard spot in the AFC. Equally important to their current record is the schedule that lies before them. The Steelers game tonight certainly won't be easy, but after this weekend, the Ravens come home to face a homeless 3-9 Colts team. They then pack up and head to face a winless Cleveland Browns team before coming back home to play a banged up Bengals team that the Ravens held scoreless on the road in the first week of the season. Even if the Ravens lose to the Steelers tonight, Baltimore still has a fantastic chance of finishing 10-6 or at 9-7. They could technically finish 11-5, but it wouldn't be advisable. This is because if the Ravens win their next three games and stand at 10-5 going into the final week of the season, it would behoove them to rest their starters against the Bengals before heading into the post season the same way they did in 2012. Eleven wins likely won't secure a the division lead as the Steelers currently stand at 10-2. It would take a serious injury to Ben Roethlisberger to stop the Steelers from winning at least two of their remaining 4 games.
The Steelers' next two opponents certainly will be tough. They, of course, face a Ravens team that appears to have found its rhythm as of late, and then they face a Patriots team that hasn't lost a game since the first month of the season. Pittsburgh will take on these opponents without their starting Mike linebacker, Ryan Shazier, or his backup, Tyler Matakevich. Shazier, when healthy, is one of the most dynamic linebackers in the game. His speed is unmatched at his position as he ran a 4.3 forty yard dash at the NFL combine. Since entering the league, however, Shazier has not been able to stay healthy for an entire season. 2017 was shaping up to be Shazier's first fully healthy season in his career before he was tragically carted off the field with a major spinal injury that could potentially mean the end of his football career. Regardless of team affiliation, no one wants to see a young man lose the use of his legs, and the Steelers-Ravens rivalry is made better with the presence of great players on both sides. Purple Nightmare wishes Shazier a speedy full recovery.
Shazier isn't the only elite defender who won't suit up for the Steelers tonight. Pro Bowl corner Joe Haden has not yet resumed practicing since breaking his fibula weeks ago, and his status next week against the Patriots is in doubt as well. Haden's presence made a tremendous difference in the Steelers' ability to limit opponents' scoring. The Steelers allowed an average 16.44 points per game with a healthy Joe Haden, and that number has risen to 21.66 points per game during his absence. More troublesome for Pittsburgh has been the nature of their recent wins. A last second field goal was required to beat an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers team in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, and that came only one week after the Ravens held the same team scoreless in Green Bay. Then last Monday night the Steelers needed a last second field goal to beat a Bengals team that the Ravens held scoreless earlier in the season. That game might not have been close were it not for a phantom holding call on a beautiful bomb touchdown pass to A.J. Green as well as the Le'veon Bell being allowed to scamper free up the sidelines by a brainless Bengal instead of simply being pushed out of bounds. One must, of course, give the Steelers credit for finding a way to continue to win, but extremely close games against crappy teams implies this Pittsburgh squad isn't as ferocious as their record would suggest at the moment.
The Ravens have suffered their own serious injury as of late with Jimmy Smith tearing his Achilles against the Lions. Smith's absence was immediately felt as the Lions suddenly began to mount a comeback and picked on Smith's replacement, Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey was out-hustled and out-muscled by Marvin Jones, and he'll face a far more daunting task tonight anytime he finds himself lined up across from Antonio Brown. The Ravens defensive coordinator will likely not feel as comfortable bringing as many defensive backs on blitzes without Smith in the game to lock down his side, so the Ravens will need to find ways to consistently generate pressure from their front 4 and front 7. One thing has helped prepare the Ravens to defend opponents without Jimmy Smith at their disposal, and that has been Jimmy Smith's consistent absence. Despite his high level of play this season, a nagging Achilles injury forced Jimmy Smith to play a portion of the defensive snaps on any given game over the past few months. Beyond this season, the Ravens have, of course, dealt with consistent injuries in all but one of Jimmy Smith's seasons in the league. In only 2013 did Jimmy Smith play all 16 games, and he played at a Pro Bowl level as a result. The team is, nevertheless, unquestionably better when he can suit up.
Because of Jimmy Smith's injury history, the Ravens staff made absolutely sure to load up on quality corners for this season. Marlon Humphrey, despite struggling at times last week, has played extremely well this season, and Brandon Carr delivered a consistent quality of coverage as well as 3 impressive interceptions. Maurice Canady finally became healthy this season, and his presence gives the Ravens a corner who can be plugged in both on the outside and against slot receivers. These three corners make up a better trio than those that took the field for the Ravens in the heartbreaking last minute loss to the Steelers last Christmas. This group certainly won't shut the Steelers defense down, but hopefully they'll be better able to limit a second-half surge by the Steelers offense that we have seen over the past couple of weeks.
The Steelers and Ravens will both be missing their aforementioned most frequently injured defensive stars tonight, but that won't necessarily mean a high scoring affair. Despite spectacular weapons such as Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, the Steelers have averaged just 23.4 points per game, which is barely more than the Ravens' 23.3 point average. The Ravens have also struggled offensively for most of the season, but have come on as of late. Baltimore has won four of their last 5 games, and during that stretch, they've scored an average of exactly 30 points per game and held opponents over that stretch to a staggering 11.8 points per game. The Steelers, over their last 5 contests, have scored 26.8 points per game and allowed an average of 19.7 points per game. That means the Steelers scoring differential has been roughly a touchdown while the Ravens scoring differential has been just over 18 points per game. Before anyone suggests that this has to do with who the Ravens have played over the last 5 games, let's remember that the Ravens have Steelers have faced numerous common opponents over their last 5 games including the Titans, Packers, and Lions.
Many will cite the close nature of the vast majority of Ravens-Steelers games as a reason why season records should be thrown out the window. This line of reasoning holds merit as the Ravens swept the Steelers in 2015 despite only winning 5 games total on the season. A level of familiarity exists between these teams that makes statistics gathered during games against other opponents decidedly less significant. Neither of these teams NEEDS a win tonight to make the playoffs, but a win for the Steelers would clinch the division, and a win for the Ravens could ultimately afford them the ability to have a virtual bye week in Week 17. The Steelers would LIKE to win tonight to help keep pace for the conference lead with the Patriots, but if the Steelers lose tonight and then find a way to beat the Patriots next week, they'll still have the inside track for the #1 seed in the playoffs if they can win the rest of their regular season games.
Ok, we have gotten a bit sidetracked, but I assure you that all this information is absolutely necessary for the full picture. The Ravens still do have some other teams chasing them for wildcard spots including all of the current 6-win teams in the AFC: the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders. The Chiefs currently hold their division lead and the 4th seed, but they've dropped 6 of their last 7 games and simply don't appear equipped to turn their once promising season around. If, however, the Chiefs do turn things around and maintain their division lead, it only means that they will have knocked off two of their divisional rivals who also happen to by wildcard contenders in the Chargers and Raiders. I firmly the believe the Raiders will, in fact, beat a very different Chiefs team today than the one that beat the Raiders earlier this season. The Chargers will also likely beat the hapless Chiefs next week, and that would likely eliminate the Chiefs both from divisional and wildcard contention.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have won 6 of their last 8 games, and can prove themselves as well as likely win their division by winning 3 of their remaining 4 games. With upcoming games against the already-eliminated-from-contention Redskins, the freefalling Chiefs, the Jets, and the Raiders, the Chargers absolutely have a clear path to the playoffs. This doesn't mean the Chargers are exactly sensational as they only beat the Browns last week 19-10, but they've displayed some serious offensive fireworks at times with Philip Rivers leading the...heh...charge. All bad jokes aside, this team could be a serious dark horse in the playoffs, and every other AFC team knows it. The Chargers aren't the only AFC West team to have an upswing in play after dip earlier in the season. The Raiders have won 3 of their last 4 games, but unlike the Chargers, they face a far tougher road ahead. The Raiders will be getting Amari Cooper back healthy this week, but the only relatively soft left on the their schedule is the Chiefs. The Oakland still has to face the Cowboys, Eagles, and then the Chargers to finish out the regular season, and they could easily lose all three of those games to finish the season with a disappointing 7-9 record. Even if the Raiders find a way to beat both the Chiefs and Cowboys, it seems unlikely they'll beat both the Eagles and Chargers as well. Oh, and even if the Raiders finish 9-7 and the Ravens also finish 9-7, the Raiders won't be able to occupy the final wildcard spot because of the Ravens' head to head victory in Oakland earlier this season.
Ok, so what does all of this mean? It means that for any one of the AFC West teams to get hot and take hold of their division, they have to knock out the other two division contenders. In that way, they're doing the Ravens a favor. Also, by knocking off the other wildcard contenders in the division, the Chargers, for example, would take themselves out of wildcard contention by winning their own division and occupying an entirely different playoff spot. The only non-AFC West 6-win wildcard contender remaining is the Buffalo Bills, and they will be without their starting quarterback today in a game they will likely lose as a result. That will leave them 6-7 heading into a three-game stretch against the Dolphins, Patriots, and Dolphins again. The Bills could sweep the Dolphins and still be virtually eliminated from playoff contention by one more loss to a highly motivated Patriots team. The moral of this story? The Ravens likely only need to win 3 of their remaining 4 games to secure a playoff spot, and hopefully the first of those three will come tonight against a formidable but banged up Steelers team.
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
COLTS AT BILLS- Tyrod Taylor hasn't exactly had a flawless season, but with him out, the Bills have nothing to give--and he's out today. COLTS 24-14
BEARS AT BENGALS- The Bears would do everyone a favor by winning their first game in weeks and knocking off the Bengals entirely, but that simply doesn't seem likely here. The Bears can't make the playoffs, but the Bengals have a tiny sliver of hope to do so, and they'll be motivated at home to keep that sliver of hope alive. The Bengals are quite banged up, but they still have more firepower than the Bears. Hope I'm wrong about this one. BENGALS 28-17
PACKERS AT BROWNS- The Browns have steadily improved, but they haven't improved enough to win a game. The Packers aren't exactly setting the league on fire without Aaron Rodgers, but they still have good enough wide receivers and enough talent from their backup quarterback to outscore a team that has yet to outscore any opponent on the season. DeShone Kiser has a tendency to turn the ball over. This will be a little close for comfort, however. PACKERS 23-19
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- The return of Amari Cooper and the absence of Marcus Peters will spell doom for a Chiefs team that has won 1 out of their last 7 games after beginning the season in spectacular 5-0 fashion. The Chiefs have proven that it's truly not how you begin the season but how you finish. RAIDERS 20-17
COWBOYS AT GIANTS- Only one of these teams has even the smallest of outside chances to go to the playoffs, and it's not the Giants. Sure, it's possible Eli Manning might have a chip on his shoulder after being recently benched, but it's not as though he was leading his team to numerous victories earlier this season. The Giants have won 2 games--that's it. The Cowboys proved earlier this season that they match up quite well with this depressing Giants team. COWBOYS 31-14
LIONS AT BUCCANEERS- Matthew Stafford may still have some pain in his throwing hand after it was stepped on last weekend, but I'm still going to pick him to have a rebound game against a relatively useless Bucs team. LIONS 27-21
VIKINGS AT PANTHERS- Regardless of the Eagles' record, the Vikings are the strongest team in the NFC as they've beaten more teams with winning records than any other franchise in the league this season. The Panthers aren't bad, but they haven't been impressive against playoff caliber teams this season. Two major injuries to the Vikings offensive line, however, will keep this game much closer than the Vikings would prefer. VIKINGS 17-14
49ERS AT TEXANS-the 49ers' first glimmer of hope on the season was last week's 1-point win over the Bears with their new starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo offering the promise of stability at a position that has haunted San Francisco since 2013. With that said, the Texans still have enough weapons on both sides of the ball to beat the 49ers at home, but this will actually be a good game against two teams that could become much better next season. TEXANS 24-20
JETS AT BRONCOS- The Jets will not make the playoffs with a 5-7 record and the Saints, Chargers, and Patriots still remaining on their schedule. They are, however, good enough to put up a strong performance against one of the very worst teams in the league. There isn't a rational explanation for why the Broncos are as bad as they are--but they are. JETS 34-21
TITANS AT CARDINALS- Losers of 3 of their last 4 games, the Cardinals simply don't have the clout to consistently take down quality teams. Tennessee is highly motivated and loaded with weapons. They must maintain their pace to keep the Jaguars from wrestling the division title away. The Titans are only 3-3 on the road, so I don't expect this to be a piece of cake. TITANS 30-24
REDSKINS AT CHARGERS- The Redskins can no longer make the playoffs, and despite their win in Seattle over the Seahawks several weeks ago, it's tough to imagine them traveling across country again and upsetting a contender--especially one as hot as the Chargers right now. CHARGERS 31-27
EAGLES AT RAMS- The Eagles have had a great season, but they've done so in large part to their strength of schedule. Philly has only beaten a single team this season that currently possesses a winning record. The Rams have absolutely dominated the bad teams, but they've also had some impressive wins over other top contenders including the Saints and Jaguars. RAMS 26-21
SEAHAWKS AT JAGUARS- The Seahawks have performed admirably with so many of their defensive stars out, but they will be out of their element when traveling across country to take on an incredibly opportunistic Jaguars defense. JAGUARS 21-17
PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS- It's tough to see the Patriots losing another game unless they rest their starters after clinching the #1 seed. The Steelers' 10-2 record will likely mean the Patriots will have to wait until the first round of the playoffs to rest. PATRIOTS 34-21
RAVENS AT STEELERS- This will be a far more evenly matched game than the first meeting of these teams in the first quarter of the season. The Ravens and Steelers are both out their best corners, but the Steelers are playing on a slightly shorter week and will be without their best linebacker and his backup. The Ravens have started to produce well on offense, and their defense, though it will be without Jimmy Smith, will have a healthy Brandon Williams. Williams didn't suit up for the last matchup between these two teams, and he should help limit Le'veon Bell to a much lower rushing total than the 144 yards he put up in Week 4. Joe Flacco's back is finally healthy, and his accuracy, especially on deep passes, has reflected it. The Ravens offensive line has finally become solidified with Matt Skura healthy and fully adjusted to his position, and the fumbling issues Alex Collins experienced early this season have totally disappeared. I know the Steelers have emotional motivation to win this game for their fallen comrade, but the Ravens need the win more from a playoff hunt standpoint. Pittsburgh has looked sluggish in the first halves of games and barely beaten some mediocre teams over the last couple of weeks. The Ravens are not a mediocre team. The season isn't over the Ravens lose this game, but as banged up as the Steelers defense is right now this is their opportunity to prove themselves to the league. Justin Tucker has another big day. RAVENS 26-24.
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THIS IS WHAT WE LIVE FOR. IT'S STEELERS WEEK!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment