The Detroit Lions present a problem not seen by the Ravens in quite some time: an elite starting quarterback. Matthew Stafford does not yet and may not ever possess a Super Bowl ring, but he ranks 5th in the NFL this season in passing yards. The Ravens schedule has been so incredibly devoid of elite starting quarterbacks, with the exception of Ben Roethlisberger, that it's possible their pass defense's ranking is at least somewhat over-inflated. That isn't to say that the Ravens defense isn't good this season; it's just that it hasn't been tested to the same degree as other defenses around the league.
Last Monday's win over a thoroughly broken Texans squad displayed some glaring weaknesses in Baltimore's defensive unit. One of the top 3 most talented receivers in the league found ways to embarrass the Ravens' top corner, Jimmy Smith, despite the fact that Houston was missing both its starting quarterback and #2 receiver to help take pressure off of the #1. For the first time in my memory, Jimmy Smith was physically dominated and repeatedly humiliated by DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins didn't find the endzone, and he didn't put up Antonio Brown caliber numbers, but that's because what the Ravens sometimes lack in coverage skills they make up for with turnovers. This isn't a Ravens defense that just stonewalls an opponent. They've nearly all of their worst opponents to move the ball--sometimes with startling ease. Teams have run the ball right through the teeth of the Ravens front seven many times this season, and they even did so at times after Brandon Williams returned to health.
A huge part of what made the Ravens run defense more dominant early on in the season was the physical dominance of Brent Urban. Urban has since gone on injured reserve, and his run stuffing ability has been sorely missed for much of the 2017 season. Fortunately for the Ravens, the Lions run the football quite poorly. Detroit ranks 30th in the league in rushing, and that will help Baltimore turn them into a relatively one-dimensional opponent. Most of the Ravens losses have come against teams with top 10 rushing offenses. The Jaguars rank first in the league running the football, the Vikings rank 7th, the Bears rank 8th, and despite not ranking in the top 10, the Steelers have one of the best running backs in the game who had a particularly strong game against Baltimore earlier this season. Fittingly, nearly all of the Ravens' wins have come against opponents ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing as the Bengals rank 31st, the Miami ranks 29th, Oakland ranks 27th, Green Bay ranks 22nd, and Cleveland ranks 18th.
Not only is Detroit's rush offense weak this year, but they also struggle to stop the run...and the pass. Detroit ranks 22nd against the pass and 22nd against the run. If there's one thing the Ravens have faced this season it's elite defenses, so a defense ranked in the bottom third of the league will be a merciful break for a Baltimore offense ranked near dead last in total yardage. The Ravens have had to face the top ranked defense of the Jaguars, the 4th ranked defense of the Steelers, the 5th ranked defense of the Vikings, the 9th ranked defense of the Browns, the 11th ranked defense of the Titans, the 12th ranked defense of the Bears, and the 13th ranked defense of the Bengals. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Ravens offense has struggled. Detroit's defense is ranked 24th overall, and if Baltimore can't move the football this week, they probably won't find a ton of success against the 3 remaining defenses in the top half of the league they're scheduled to face going forward.
If the Ravens offense is going to find success, it will need the defense to keep the Lions' offense off the field. Two factors bode well for the Ravens defense's odds of limiting time of possession for Matthew Stafford and company. The first factor is that the Lions haven't protected Stafford particularly well. They have, in fact, given up the third most sacks in the league this season with 36. The Ravens, by contrast, have only allowed Flacco to be sacked 23 times. That lead's us to the other factor. Stafford endured an ankle injury on Thanksgiving, and though he has been reported to be a full participant in practice, the gunslinger was limping on the field just over a week ago. It would be a reasonable assumption that Stafford will be at least somewhat limited in his mobility, and that could easily leave him a sitting duck against a Ravens defense that is tied for 10th in the league with 30 sacks thus far on the season. To add to that, a lack of an effective rushing attack will allow the Ravens to pin their ears back and go after him. Terrell Suggs could easily have another 2-sack game against a team that has given up an average of 3.27 sacks per game on the season.
The Lions road record is a surprisingly strong 4-1 at the moment. It's unusual for a dome team to win almost all its games on the road and only a third of its games at home. That may have less to do with the Lions' status as road warriors and more to do with which opponents they actually faced on the road as opposed to in Detroit. The 4 Lions road wins came against a useless Giants team, the Vikings right after they nearly simultaneously lost Sam Bradford, Dalvin Cook, and Stephon Diggs (temporarily) to injuries, a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers, and a Bears team with an inexperienced rookie at quarterback. Now compare that schedule to the Lions' home schedule which included losses to teams such as the Steelers, healthier Vikings, Panthers, and Falcons. That isn't to say that the Lions haven't had some quality road wins. They beat two teams that beat the Ravens in the Bears and Vikings, but those are also opponents with which the Lions have divisional familiarity.
The Ravens aren't in the Lions' division, but there will be a degree of familiarity as the Lions' head coach used to be the Ravens offensive coordinator, and the Lions defensive coordinator used to be a Ravens defensive assistant. Detroit could, thus, have some insight into the Ravens defensive schemes, and the Ravens could have insight into much of what Detroit does on both sides of the ball. The Lions will be coming off of a longer rest period than the Ravens, but the Baltimore doesn't have to travel and is reportedly is a healthier team than possibly at any other point in the season. The Lions have a quarterback coming off of an aforementioned ankle injury, and they'll be missing their starting strong safety. This should open things up for a Ravens rushing offense that has already found a good deal of success this season, and it should help open things up for a Ravens passing game that has been worse this year than nearly any other point in team history.
It's important for fans in Baltimore to remember that this game isn't a must-win contest. It would be huge if the Ravens could put down a team with a weak defense and a one-dimensional offense, but if Stafford has a big day and the Ravens can't manage to force any meaningful turnovers, this could be a shootout Baltimore simply isn't equipped to win. With that said, if the Browns can put up 24 points on this Lions defense, I have no doubt the Ravens can do better considering their homefield advantage and strong rushing offense. Even if Baltimore doesn't win tomorrow, the Ravens still have extremely winnable games coming up against the Colts, Browns, and Bengals, and winning just those three games would give the Ravens a 9-7 record and likely a wildcard berth in the playoffs. If the Ravens CAN manage to win on Sunday, they could potentially reach 9 wins by the second to last week of the season. If getting to 9 wins before the end of the season allows the Ravens to clinch a playoff spot a week early, as I have mentioned in previous posts, Harbaugh could afford to rest his starters in the final game of the regular season the way he did the last time the Ravens won a Super Bowl. I'm not saying this team is anywhere remotely as good as the one that emerged victorious in February of 2013, but an extra by week before the wildcard round of the playoffs would likely go a long way to ensure Joe Flacco doesn't make his very first early playoff exit.
THE PICKS
VIKINGS AT FALCONS- The Falcons have heated up as of late, but they're not strong enough to put up big points on this defense, and their not stout enough defensively to stop a surprisingly impressive Vikings offense. VIKINGS 31-24
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- The two remaining games against the Patriots are a big reason the Ravens will likely maintain their lead in the playoff push over the Bills. The Patriots have averaged over 36 points per game in the last 3 weeks, and they've won their last 7 straight...good luck Tyrod. PATRIOTS 42-23
49ERS AT BEARS- Jimmy Garoppolo will ultimately be an improvement over the crappy quarterbacks the 49ers have used this season, but he's still learning San Francisco's offense. The Bears aren't a particularly great team, but they're better than the 49ers, and they own homefield advantage this week. BEARS 26-17
BUCCANEERS AT PACKERS- The Packers found a nice rhythm last week against the Steelers even they did ultimately lose. I truly liked what a I saw on the road against a top defense. This is the week where Green Bay beats up on an opponent much lesser than Pittsburgh. Oh and Aaron Jones is reportedly going to return to add a dimension to the Green Bay offense. PACKERS 34-21
TEXANS AT TITANS- The Titans have won 5 of their last 6 games and will out pace the Texans offensively. TITANS 23-13
BRONCOS AT DOLPHINS- This is an evenly matched game because both of these teams are doing so incredibly poorly right now. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Broncos, who have scored an average of 14 points per game and allowed an average of just over 29 points per game during their current 7 game losing streak, are not going to win this game. DOLPHINS 27-19
CHIEFS AT JETS- Both of these teams have only a single win over their last 6 games. It's difficult, however, to know why a Chiefs team that is struggling so hard to score each week would be favored to win this game. The Chiefs appear to be given too much credit for their dominant streak with which they began the season, but one particular factor appears to have derailed their season, and it's not one that many people would expect. Speedy young wide receiver Chris Conley didn't put up monster statistics this season, but his presence helped to stretch the field and take pressure off of the Chiefs' other weapons. Conley last played against the Texans, and that was the last game of the Chiefs' winning streak. With Conley on the field, the Chiefs scored an average of 32.8 points per game, and without Conley, the Chiefs have scored an average of only 18 points per game. The Jets haven't fared much better, but they haven't been quite as offensively anemic as of late. I'm going with the home team here. JETS 21-17
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have lost a pair of upset games this season, but they dominated the Colts 27-0 in Indianapolis earlier, and it's unreasonable to assume the Colts will find significantly more success in Jacksonville. JAGUARS 30-7
BROWNS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are red-hot at the moment and they know very well they can overtake the Chiefs for their division lead. The Browns will get Josh Gordon back, so this will be a more competitive game than many realize, but it's difficult to think that the Browns will be able to travel across the country and outscore Philip Rivers the way he he's playing right now. The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7 games with their two losses coming in narrow fashion against the Patriots and Jaguars. The Chargers have found a particular offensive rhythm over the past couple of weeks with a total of 82 points scored. This team is dangerous. CHARGERS 38-24
GIANTS AT RAIDERS- Geno Smith? Well that made this one quite easy. RAIDERS 21-13
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers have an excellent road record of 5-1 this season, but the way they played against a losing Jets squad last week, it's difficult to thing the Saints offense won't rack up a ton of points in this one. Oh and the Saints already beat the Panthers in Charlotte earlier this season--badly (34-13). SAINTS 42-24
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Rams already beat the Cardinals 33-0 a little over a month ago. RAMS 28-13
EAGLES AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks are a shell of their formers selves without an intact legion of boom. The Eagles are the most complete team in the league and shouldn't struggle to move the ball against a team that has lost at home to both the Falcons and Redskins over the last month. EAGLES 31-21
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals don't have nearly enough firepower to keep this competitive against a Steelers offense that's hitting its stride as of late. The Bengals will also be without a pair of starting linebackers going into a game where they'll need all the defensive playmakers they can muster. STEELERS 33-17
LIONS AT RAVENS- The Lions will be without their starting center and their starting strong safety today. Matthew Stafford is also just over a week removed from an ankle injury, and after he incurred that injury, he was 3-6 for 7 passing yards against the Vikings last week. I'm sure he's feeling someone better and he's been shot full of pain killers, but it's difficult to imagine that Stafford will be 100% in the mobility department. The Ravens are as healthy as they're going to be at this time of year, and they shouldn't struggle to move the ball against a team that struggles to stop the run the way Detroit does. With that said, this will be a long day if Baltimore can't get pressure on Stafford. Justin Tucker will come up big today with 4 critical field goals. RAVENS 26-24
BUCKLE UP, BALTIMORE. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE RAVENS PLAY THEIR BEST, MOST PHYSICAL FOOTBALL! HEEEERE KITTY-KITTY-KITTY...
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment