Thanksgiving didn't feature much in the way of exciting NFL football. The Redskins-Giants game was one of the most painful displays of professional football in the last several decades, the Cowboys scored only a single touchdown for the 3rd straight week without Ezekiel Elliott, and the Vikings tightened their stranglehold on the NFC North with their win in Detroit. These games might appear to have nothing to do with the Ravens, but there are at least a couple of points that may prove pertinent to the Ravens' upcoming schedule.
The Detroit Lions will play the Ravens in Week 13, and if Thanksgiving's first game was any indication, that won't be an easy task. It certainly seemed at times as though the Vikings dominated the Lions on Thursday, but Detroit finished only one touchdown behind. One shouldn't glean too much from a divisional game considering they're often competitive despite a disparity in the overall strength of the teams playing, but the Lions are no sort of pushovers. Not only will the Lions be coming off of nearly a week and a half of rest, but they also boast a 4-1 road record on the season, and the Ravens haven't been invincible at home in years.
Beating the Lions could very well be a tough task, but it also might not be necessary considering the rest of the Ravens remaining schedule. It will likely take only 9 wins to clinch a wildcard spot, and the other teams within striking distance have much tougher upcoming opponents. One team thought to be totally out of the running for a playoff spot is the Chargers. Philip Rivers and company lost 6 of their first 9 games, but they have now won 5 of their last 7 to improve to 5-6 on the season. What has been even more impressive is just how explosive the Chargers offense has been for the past two weeks. They scored a whopping 54 points against the Bills, and then Rivers threw for well over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving night.
The Chargers now find themselves one game back from a wilting but division-leading Chiefs team that appeared to be the most dominant force in the AFC through the first 6 weeks of the season. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Chargers could easily overtake them as division leader in the AFC West as every team left on their schedule is quite beatable. If that happens, it's quite possible that the Ravens could find themselves faced with a road trip to California in the first round of the playoffs. This all only goes to show that one shouldn't get too high or low about a team's early struggles in an NFL season. The regular season is 4 months long and injuries and adjustments to opponents' schemes can change the landscape of competition profoundly over only a handful of weeks.
The Ravens, unlike the Chargers, don't have a great opportunity to overtake their most hated rivals, the Steelers, for the lead in their division, but, like the Chargers, they're starting to heat up at the right time. Suggs and company have pitched two shutouts in their last 3 games, and they have the highest margin of victory of any team in the NFL as they've outscored opponents 137-27 in their five wins. The Ravens have struggled against many of the better teams in the league, but they've shown unquestionably that they can dominate mediocre and bad teams. That's quite convenient as the Texans happen to be a bad team since the season-ending injury to Deshaun Watson's knee.
Just how bad ARE the Texans? Well they lost 4 of their last 6 games, but their only win over the last month came against a Cardinals team that has essentially lost all hope without Carson Palmer. The Texans also lost the most dominant defensive player in the league when J.J. Watt went down with a season ending injury. The Texans will be without two starting offensive linemen on Monday night, and wide receiver Will Fuller has been ruled out as well. DeAndre Hopskins is the only true offensive weapon the Texans have left, and he has even been dealing with a foot injury of his own though he is expected to play on Monday night.
There was a bit of a scare earlier this week that the Ravens would be missing two of their own starting offensive linemen with Ronnie Stanley still in concussion protocol and Austin Howard held out of practice with a reported knee injury. Both men, however, returned to practice by Friday on a full participant level, and that's relieving considering the fact that a ferocious pass rusher will soon take the field with his sights on Joe Flacco.
Jadeveon Clowney is the only remaining pass rusher left this season of the Watt-Mercilus-Clowney trio. He, nevertheless, has found a way to generate a consistent pass rush and be disruptive to opposing offenses by himself. With 8 sacks on the year, Clowney has more than any Ravens pass rusher as Terrell Suggs leads Baltimore with 7.5. Teams have trouble keying in on the young, dynamic playmaker because the Texans line him up all over the defensive front seven. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Texans have Clowney pick on the Ravens' comparatively weak guards considering the strength and track record of the Baltimore tackles and center this season. Clowney is not, however, the best pass rusher the Ravens have faced this season, and his location simply needs to be identified prior to the snap so he can be properly accounted for and double-teamed.
Another Texans player that will likely require a double team all night is DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins is easily one of the top 3 receivers in the league this season, and despite not having a legitimate starting quarterback to deliver him the ball, he has still managed to amass 879 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Hopkins' production hasn't waned since Deshaun Watson went down for the season, but that might change profoundly this week as the Texans #2 receiver and best deep threat with 19.2 yards per catch, Will Fuller, will not play. Fuller caught 7 touchdown passes in 2017 which is 30% of the Texans' total 23 receiving touchdowns. The speedy Notre Dame product ran a 4.32 official NFL combine 40 yard dash in 2016, and his absence will allow the Ravens to zero in on Hopkins all game.
There are two things the Texans have done unquestionably well this season: running the football and stopping the run. Houston ranks 6th in the league in rushing yards per game, and rank 7th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. That doesn't mean that it's impossible to run the football on them, and it certainly doesn't mean that their running game can't be stopped, but I don't expect a monstrous day on the ground for Alex Collins and company. The Texans will likely put forth the bulk of their defensive efforts to stacking the box and stopping the Ravens rushing attack. This, they likely hope, will force Flacco to throw the football in a year where he has struggled mightily to do so. The issue with that strategy is that the Texans rank 23rd in the league in passing yards allowed, and they rank dead last in passing touchdowns allowed. If there was ever a day where Ravens wide receivers, tight ends, and pass-catching running backs would feast on an opposing pass defense, it would be Monday night.
The Ravens offense may still struggle early to find a rhythm and pull away from the Texans until the second half, but I fully expect the Ravens defense to hold the Texans nearly scoreless, if not entirely scoreless. With a full staff, this Texans team is dangerous, but this roster is a shell of its former self with over half of its top playmakers on injured reserve. If Baltimore can't put this wounded animal down in primetime on Monday night, they're going to struggle hard the following week against a much better Detroit Lions squad. Let's just consider this week to be phase one of Operation Beat-the-Teams-They're-Supposed-to-Beat. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- The Buccanners' road record has been an absolutely abysmal 1-4 this season, and the Falcons are heating up at the right time winning 3 of their last 4 games including a major upset of the Seahawks in Seattle last week. This is a divisional game, however, so it will be closer than many expect. FALCONS 31-28
BROWNS AT BENGALS- The Bengals will keep fairly dim playoff hopes alive with a win over the winless Browns this week. BENGALS 24-14
TITANS AT COLTS- The Colts have still fought hard despite being basically eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time. The Titans handled the Colts 36-22 in Nashville, and I expect a similar performance this week as Marcus Mariota isn't hobbled the way he was the first time these two teams faced one another. TITANS 33-17
BILLS AT CHIEFS- This is an interesting matchup because it features two teams that looked dominant earlier this season, but have fallen off as of late and desperately need a win. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Bills have lost their last 3 straight. Tyrod Taylor will start, but he will be without the recently acquired target Kelvin Benjamin. The Bills defense has been so insanely poor as of late that I have to give the edge to the Chiefs at home. The Bills defense has, in fact, allowed an average of 45 points per game over the last 3 weeks. CHIEFS 34-23
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- It was only a matter of time before Brandin Cooks became familiarize with the Patriots offensive system and began to flourish. He has more than made up for Julian Edelman's absence with 786 receiving yards thus far this season. The Dolphins have sadly lost their last 4 games, and with two upcoming games against the Patriots their playoff chances are slim to none. The question going forward will be whether they draft a QB or stick with a recovered Tannehill for the foreseeable future. PATRIOTS 38-20
PANTHERS AT JETS- The Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 games and the Panthers are 7-3. The Panthers have lost a letdown game or two this season, but it's difficult to imagine them dropping one to this team. PANTHERS 24-17
BEARS AT EAGLES- The Eagles are the most complete team in the NFL. EAGLES 35-21
SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS- These teams are usually competitive when playing one another, but it's difficult to believe the 49ers will be able to contain Russell Wilson. SEAHAWKS 28-24
BRONCOS AT RAIDERS- This is a matchup of two of the best teams from the previous couple of seasons...and they both now suck. The edge has to go to the Raiders who have at least won 2 of their last 4 games. RAIDERS 30-23
SAINTS AT RAMS- This is easily the best, most intriguing matchup of the week. Both the Rams and Saints have been strong for months now. The Rams' only losses have come against the Seahawks when the Seahawk's defense still had its biggest pieces and then last week against a defensively ferocious Vikings. The Saints haven't been pitted against an elite defense in quite some time, and the Rams rank 7th in points allowed this season. Considering how close the Redskins came last week to beating the Saints in New Orleans, I have to believe the Rams will be strong enough to knock them off in Los Angeles on Sunday. RAMS 31-28
JAGUARS AT CARDINALS- Jalen Ramsey WILL be playing, and the Cardinals will be losing. JAGUARS 37-13
PACKERS AT STEELERS- This is the weakest Packers team I've ever known. The Steelers defense is top 3 in the league and will easily stifle this decapitated group from Green Bay. STEELERS 42-10
TEXANS AT RAVENS- The Texans are down to essentially one offensive weapon, and they're about to go against the second rated secondary in the league. The Ravens shouldn't allow Tom Savage to breathe, and they'll likely pick him off as he tries to force the ball to DeAndre Hopkins in double and triple coverage. The Texans will do whatever they can to stop the Ravens rushing attack, and that means we'll see what Joe Flacco can do. I have a feeling Danny Woodhead will catch at least 5-6 passes and allow Joe to get rid of the ball quick enough to neutralize pressure. If the Ravens offense can't open up through the air against this team, they're going to have a hard time against any playoff team they might face assuming they make it that far. RAVENS 24-3
IT'S BLACKOUT TIME AT THE BANK ON MONDAY NIGHT! TIME FOR THE RAVENS DEFENSE TO FEAST! I HOPE EVERYONE HAD A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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