The formula for success in the NFL is markedly different than many may perceive. Because of the rather restrictive salary cap there are essentially two ways to win a Super Bowl. The first way is to be the Patriots. Sure, the Patriots went through a 10 year Super Bowl drought, but they've won 5 Lombardi trophies in a decade and a half. The Steelers amassed 5 Super Bowl wins in 31 years, and the Dallas Cowboys won 5 over the course of a 24 year period. Only the 49ers have won 5 titles in less time, and they won most of those in an era where it was possible to keep the core of a team together for longer periods of time because free agency only took effect in the NFL a year before the 49ers won their last Super Bowl. For all teams NOT named the Patriots, a different formula for winning the Super Bowl has taken form over the past decade.
You've undoubtedly heard that the NFL is a "pass driven league" over the course of the last decade. Defensive rules have been altered with the aim of protecting "defenseless receivers", which has, thus, given pass-catchers a greater chance of securing the football. Old passing statistics from even Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks have become pedestrian in comparison to the numbers generated by many of the league's present day gunslingers. It is for this reason that teams decided that a "franchise quarterback" was essential to hoisting a trophy at the end of the season. There's no question that the league's top quarterbacks tend to win a lot of games, but many of the league's top statistical quarterbacks have only won a single title at most. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have, for example, put up absolutely spectacular passing statistics, but neither has managed to get back to the big game since the end of the last decade and the beginning of this one, respectively. What do both of these men have in common other than being unquestionably elite? They both signed massive contracts in the years following their Super Bowl wins.
Since securing respective league-leading contracts, Brees and Rodgers have each found themselves leading incomplete teams. Both the Saints and Packers have fallen off sharply from a defensive standpoint since their respective Super Bowl victories, and gaudy passing numbers alone tend not to carry a team to consistent post-season victories. A high level of passing yards can, in fact, be an indication that a team is playing from behind in games on a frequent basis. Last season, for example, Joe Flacco threw for a career high 4300+ passing yards, and the Ravens failed to make the playoffs. Joe Flacco's most successful seasons featured passing yard totals below 4000--they also featured Joe Flacco with a manageable salary cap number.
Joe Flacco was, at one point, an integral cog in a fairly efficient post-season machine. He lacked the elite field general ability to run his own offense with fire and intensity seen in such legends of the last 20 years as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but he possessed an incredibly strong arm and an elite level of emotional unflappability at critical times and in harsh environments. While Flacco was on his rookie contract, fans got comfortable with the idea that, while he wouldn't always play perfectly in the regular season, and while there were certain teams against which he routinely struggled, Joe Cool would rise to the occasion and never exit a post-season without at least one win. That success came to a crescendo as he proudly hoisted a Lombardi over his head and chuckled at all the doubters who said he'd never ascend to that point. Then he got paid. Joe Flacco didn't just get paid, he got the biggest contract in NFL history up to that point. It seemed to make sense at the time. Flacco had, after all, won Super Bowl MVP and made himself the winningest road quarterback in NFL history. He deserved a long term deal, but not nearly as much money as he received.
The concept that the market determines the next big contract is an unfortunate inevitability in a league that restricts so heavily the piece of the overall NFL cash pie that each team can pay its players. Paying Flacco 120 million dollars, for example, pushed the Ravens into a mindset where they felt the need to jettison players such as Boldin who deserved every penny of the salary he earned in his final season as a Raven. It quickly became clear following the post-Super Bowl departure of Reed, Boldin, and Pollard that the Ravens incorrectly assessed what it takes Joe Flacco to be successful. Joe requires a strong supporting cast of characters to be successful, and he needs an offensive system that both fits his strengths and features a strong rushing attack to help take pressure off of him. The Ravens have most certainly NOT provided Flacco with a consistent offensive coordinator or system, and they haven't had a truly elite complimentary offensive weapon on the roster since Ray Rice.
The Ravens have managed to give big contracts to such important players as Brandon Williams, Marshal Yanda, and Jimmy Smith in recently years, but because of the combination of those contracts and the league-leading cap number of Flacco, Baltimore has been forced to settle for signing bargain offensive free agent weapons. They look for formerly elite receivers north of 30 years old and running backs cut from other teams such as Justin Forsett and Alex Collins. Long gone are the days where the Ravens would pick a running back in the first or second round such as Jamal Lewis or Ray Rice. That isn't to say the Ravens haven't picked extremely well in the first round of the last two drafts with Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey, but you don't see any Ravens jerseys selling out of the stores right now.
If you haven't already sensed an overall theme, I'll make it abundantly clear: if your team isn't the Patriots, the best way to get to the Super Bowl is with a young talented quarterback still on his rookie contract. Russell Wilson went to two Super Bowls in recent years because he's talented, but also because he had not yet received a massive deal. Since receiving that deal, his team isn't nearly the same force it was only a few years ago. The same goes, of course, for Joe Flacco. Hell, some teams skipped over that point entirely because the supporting cast for their currently overpaid quarterback was never where it needed to be while he was still on his rookie deal. Both Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck have, through their massive contracts, crippled their teams' ability to improve to a level necessary to achieve serious post-season success. That doesn't mean a team can't pay its franchise quarterback, but it does mean that teams must give a true evaluation of what exactly their quarterback is worth and not simply bend to the will of a market that dictates that essentially every next big quarterback contract will be the biggest in history. After all, the Ravens took a lanky rookie to the AFC championship in 2008 because the rest of their team was absolutely loaded with talent.
Baltimore is stuck with Joe Flacco contractually at least through next season. I don't believe they should stick with Marty Mornhinweg as offensive coordinator unless he's able to architect some incredible second half offensive turn-around. I do, however, believe they're one offensive coordinator and one or two offensive weapons away from being an extremely good team. Getting Marshal Yanda and Alex Lewis back next year will immediately turn the offensive line into an elite unit considering that their tackles and center are currently performing at high levels. They'll have Jeremy Maclin as a quality veteran receiver, and the defense is saturated with playmakers and will only get better as young pass rushers such as Tyus Bowser develop into dominant players. Getting Tavon Young back will help turn the Ravens secondary into what I believe will be the unquestioned best unit in the league next season, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the younger players rally around Terrell Suggs in what I believe will be the very last year of his brilliant career.
As for the rest of the 2017 season, I'll be curious to see just what kind of adjustments the Ravens can make coming out of the bye week. The long anticipated return of Danny Woodhead should make things interesting considering how impressive he looked in the brief glimpse fans were given on the first drive of the season. The comparative weakness of the remaining schedule along with major injuries to quarterbacks and key players on remaining opponents means the Ravens have a legitimate shot to win nearly every game that lies before them. Will they do so? It would appear the answer is no, but no one is doing well enough in the AFC that a post-season berth is totally out of reach for Baltimore at this point. The Steelers are 6-2, but as we speak they are losing to the lowly Colts with injuries piling up to such key players as Joe Haden and Vance McDonald. The Patriots are 6-2, but they've escaped a good number of games by the skin of their teeth. Realistically, as poorly as the Ravens have done, they're still only two wins behind the best teams in the conference.
I am encouraged by the rise of Alex Collins as a premier starting running back with excellent lateral movement, great burst, and the ability to break off long runs. If the Ravens are able to put together string of wins after the bye week, he'll likely be a big reason why. He's the type of running back who would have an incredible year in Gary Kubiak's offense. As far as I know, Kubiak still hasn't signed a contract with another team, so let's hope that Steve Bisciotti has established some kind of dialogue with him. The Ravens had the greatest offensive production in team history under Gary, and it would be silly not to make a serious push to bring him back for next season.
Instead of throwing things at the T.V. out of frustration if the Ravens can't make it back to the playoffs, let's just accept that this season's injuries have made a rough start nearly inevitable, and keep our expectations tempered going forward. The answer to fixing this team isn't to fire the entire coaching staff and the general manager, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some major changes within the next season or two if things aren't corrected. Let's just try to enjoy the remainder of the NFL season and be pleasantly surprised if the birds of Baltimore surprise us by turning the season around. For now, just kick back, relax, and enjoy watching the rest of the teams destroying one another.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment