A 4-4 record wouldn't ordinarily give fans much confidence in their favorite team's odds of making the playoffs. A perplexing blowout loss to the Jaguars and an emotionally draining home loss to the Bears left many Ravens fans feeling as though the season was lost before it was even half way over. Many proclaimed Harbaugh and his staff to be the main reasons for Baltimore's struggles, and there is likely at least some truth to that theory. Available player personnel, however, has been a far greater factor on a week to week basis, and one has but to compare the injury reports from wins and losses to see just how profoundly missing starters impacted the outcomes.
The Ravens began the regular season on quite a tear with two impressive wins in which the Ravens demonstrated dominance in the running game and defense. The preseason saw injuries to impact starters such as Kenneth Dixon, Tavon Young, Crocket Gillmore, and most notably Joe Flacco. Sadly, the injury bug crept into the regular season almost immediately as Danny Woodhead injured his hamstring near the end of the first offensive drive of the season--a drive in which he was the most critical offensive weapon. During that single drive, though, Ravens fans and coaches alike got a glimpse of how easily the Ravens were able to methodically move the down the field with Woodhead lined up in the slot and as a running back catching passes out of the backfield. One has to wonder how many more drives the Ravens would have been able to complete with a healthy Woodhead over the course of this season. Well fans in Baltimore won't have to wait much longer to find out as Woodhead is on pace to return in just over two weeks against the Packers and following the bye week.
Arguably the greatest personnel losses of the season were not of skills positions. Starting left guard, Alex Lewis, was lost during the off-season and potential future Hall-of-Famer starting right guard, Marshal Yanda, went on injured reserve after the second game. Luckily for the Ravens, they had an improved James Hurst to plug in at left guard, but Yanda left a far greater void on the right side. Baltimore gave time to journeyman Tony Bergstrom, but the coaches were apparently not impressed as he was benched and then cut. Matt Skura then stepped in and gave shaky performances against the Jaguars and Steelers, but began to improve before becoming injured. British-born draft pick, Jermaine Eluemunor, stepped in for Skura and struggled--oh boy did he struggle. It wasn't until Skura returned from injury that the Ravens solidified the right side with a ferociously dominant win over the Dolphins just over a week ago, but one has to assume the Ravens offense would not have looked so incredibly hapless in losses if either Lewis or Yanda had stayed healthy...but that's football.
I expected SOMETHING to be done for the right guard position before the trade deadline last week, but a lack of salary cap space prevented the Ravens from acquiring the likes of the Texans Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown who was ultimately traded to the Seahawks instead. Brown could have been plugged in at right guard to form a monstrous duo on the right side along with giant starting right tackle Austin Howard. The Ravens are, thus, stuck with Matt Skura until next season. That may not, however, be reason for panic as Skura appears to have improved with experience after being thrown into the fire this season.
The rest of the Ravens offensive line has actually been a bright spot as of late. Ronnie Stanley should go to his first Pro Bowl based on the way he's playing, and Austin Howard is not far behind as both a ranked in the top 5 at their respective positions. Ryan Jensen has been a truly pleasant surprise with his solidification as the presumptive center of the future for Baltimore. Jensen won the respect and admiration of fans (including this writer) with his Yanda-esque ferocity and explosive instinct to protect and stand up for his teammates when opponents take cheap shots. This is the type of guy the Ravens pine after, and he's only going to continue to improve with increased experience as a starter. Because of some excellent run-blocking, the Ravens rising star running back, Alex Collins, has produced a level and frequency of explosive plays not seen in a Ravens uniform since Ray Rice in his prime. Collins ranks 9th in the NFL in rushing yards despite no single game with 20+ carries, and the Ravens rank 7th in the league in rushing yards per game. Suffice it to say that Baltimore has fixed it's ground attack.
Fixing rushing production was a priority in the off-season, and the Raven have accomplished exactly that without investing a high draft pick on a big name running back. They also did so without their break-out 4th round pick from last season, Kenneth Dixon. The passing attack, however, has suffered to a bizarre degree. Joe Flacco is on pace for a career low in passing yards, and the Ravens starting receivers' production has been next to non-existent. Mike Wallace is coming off of a 1000+ yard season, and Jeremy Maclin had 1,318 receiving yards in 2014 and 1,088 receiving yards in 2015 before missing time because of an injury last season. Wallace is currently on pace for roughly 500 yards on the season, and Maclin is on pace for just over 400 yards. The emphasis on the running game as well as a desire to protect Joe Flacco following his summer back injury could be largely to blame for a lack of production with the wide receivers, but something still seems off considering Flacco threw for a career high of 4300+ passing yards last season.
Breshad Perriman may be the biggest mystery of all. He was heralded coming out of the off-season as the potential true #1 receiver with his blazing speed and size. To say the former first round pick has taken a step back would be the understatement of the year. Breshad Perriman has 4 catches and 26 receiving yards on the season--you read that correctly. Lest we forget, Perriman actually made some absolutely spectacular plays last season, and there was no reason to believe he WOULDN'T break out in 2017. Perriman made some absolutely brilliant contested jump ball catches. Take a look at his highlights from last season if you don't believe me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmSCFkEWZhk
Some may assume this means that Perriman is a bust for a first round pick, and statistically there's little room to deny that, but when one takes into account the puzzlingly low production from the two other explosive proven receivers on the team, #11's near absence isn't quite as mysterious. There IS one rather intriguing possibility for the receivers in the second half of the season. It's impossible that literally all three of these speedy receivers become bad at football simultaneously. If the offensive coaching staff can make some tweaks over the bye week and the second half of the season, it's entirely possible that we could see an upswing in production from the fastest trio of starting Ravens receivers in team history, and the success of the rushing attack could help tremendously to open things up for them.
The Ravens may have to lean on their receivers a bit more today as the Titans boast the league's 9th ranked run defense going into today's game, while their pass defense ranks a far more modest 15th. The Dolphins had a top 10 ranked run defense too and the Ravens had great success on the ground against them, but the Dolphins' offensive struggles allowed the Ravens more opportunities for offensive drives. The Titans haven't been electric as of late with only a narrow overtime win over the lowly, winless Browns, but they're healthier and more well-rested coming off of a bye week. Marcus Mariota and first round pick receiver Corey Davis are the biggest beneficiaries of their week off as Davis will see his first meaningful time on the field in months, and Mariota will likely be more mobile after missing time with a knee injury. The Ravens will have to contain him and force turnovers if they hope to come away with a pivotal road win.
If the Ravens can beat the Titans, they enter the bye week 5-4 with reinforcements on the way. In addition to Danny Woodhead, Baltimore will see the return of starting nickel corner, Maurice Canady. Canady had an eye-popping training camp with 3 impressive picks before going down with an injury. His presence could help the Ravens vaunted secondary to ascend to an even higher level as Lardarius Webb has been picked on by opposing quarterbacks in coverage at numerous critical moments this season. Webb is still useful as a backup safety and as a blitzer coming off the edge, but Canady represents an upgrade in youthful athleticism and coverage ability at this point. Nickel is the had been the only weak point in Baltimore's secondary, and it's safe to say we'll see an uptick in the pass rush when opposing quarterbacks struggle to find open receivers quickly.
The arrow is pointing up for this Ravens team, and they're only two wins behind the best record in the AFC. Parity in the conference and all over the league has meant few teams have looked consistently and truly dominant. A wildcard berth is reasonably in the Ravens sights as they stare down a less challenging second-half schedule than the first half that contained 6 of the league's top defenses. Wins over the Colts, Browns, Texans, Bengals, and hopefully the Packers will get Baltimore to 9 victories which may be enough to secure a post-season spot. A showdown in Pittsburgh with a strong Steelers team could be tough, but nothing the Ravens haven't been able to do before. Don't lose faith, Ravens fans, things are just getting heated up!
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- The Saints are on a friggin tear. Difficult to imagine they'll lose at home to a 2-win Tampa Bay team that's 0-3 on the road this season. SAINTS 27-17
RAMS AT GIANTS- The Rams are decent and the Giants are incredibly bad. This pick requires next to no brain power. RAMS 28-14
BRONCOS AT EAGLES- The Eagles have further bolstered their roster with Jay Ajayi. As if they needed the help right now. Meanwhile the Broncos are starting Brock Osweiler who doesn't offer any major upgrade over Trevor Siemian. EAGLES 31-10
FALCONS AT PANTHERS- I can't imagine why the Panthers would want to trade Kelvin Benjamin away, but I still like them at home over Falcons team struggling to keep its head above water. PANTHERS 24-21
BENGALS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars offense could have real trouble moving the ball without Leonard Fournette today. This could very easily, however, be one of those days where the Jags' defense gets 5 picks and humiliates the opposing QB. The weird thing is that the Jags have literally lost every other game they've played...and they won last week. This will be the day Jacksonville gets its first consecutive win of the season. JAGUARS 30-21
COLTS AT TEXANS- Both of these teams' seasons are presumably finished without their respective starting quarterbacks. The Texans still have more weapons and defensive clout, however, than the Colts, and in shutting down Andrew Luck for the season, the Colts appear to in a race to the bottom with the Browns to get the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. TEXANS 21-17
CARDINALS AT 49ERS- Cardinals are another team that, like the Jaguars, has alternated between brilliance and utter incompetence. Coming off of a bye week, however, I'm confident they'll find a way to edge a 49ers team that ranks near the bottom of the league in...everything. CARDINALS 27-23
REDSKINS AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks seem to always begin their season poorly, but as usual, they've rounded into playoff-caliber form by midseason once more. The Redskins are 3-4 on the season and 1-2 on the road. There's very little chance they go into Seattle and pull off and upset over a team that hasn't lost in over a month. SEAHAWKS 35-24
CHIEFS AT COWBOYS- The Chiefs are 3-1 on the road this season, and they face a formidable test this week against a Cowboys offense that still has the use of Ezekiel Elliot. The Chiefs are a more complete team, however, and it's tough to imagine they'll struggle to move the football on this Cowboys defense. This will be a good one though. CHIEFS 31-28
RAIDERS AT DOLPHINS- It's difficult to know what the Dolphins offense will look like without its biggest weapon now that Jay Ajayi is an Eagle. I might have predicted a Dolphins win here before he was traded away, but now I simply don't know how they plan to move the football. RAIIDERS 20-14
LIONS AT PACKERS- The Lions have dropped their last 3 games to decent teams, but they're still a more complete team than the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Divisional familiarity will keep this one close. LIONS 23-17
RAVENS AT TITANS- The Titans are favored in this game, but they did little to inspire confidence with their overtime 12-9 win over the Browns in their last game. Marcus Mariota should be well rested, but so are the Ravens. The Ravens secondary matches up very well against the Titans receiving corps, and I can't see the Titans bottling up Alex Collins. RAVENS 24-16
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON IS HERE. THE WEATHER IS GETTING COLDER AND THERE'S NO TEAM THAT HEATS UP WHEN IT'S COLD OUT QUITE LIKE THE BALTIMORE RAVENS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment