The Green Bay Packers, despite their win over the Chicago Bears last weekend, are horribly short-staffed going into their home game against the Baltimore Ravens. Aaron Rodgers' absence alone totally changes the identity and power of the team, and it certainly doesn't help that the Pack will be missing starting offensive linemen and both of their top running backs as well. The Ravens are coming off of a much needed bye week and are reportedly healthier than they've been collectively all season--healthier, that is, except one of their most critical offensive pieces.
The Ravens went through a 4 game losing streak during the 2016 season that directly corresponded with the timing of Ronnie Stanley's foot injury. The elite left tackle has performed at a Pro Bowl level this season, and it's difficult to assume his absence won't have just as profound an impact this season, if not more. Stanley exited the Ravens-Titans game late in the 4th quarter with what turned out to be a concussion. Despite his presence at practice all week, the former 6th overall pick will almost certainly not play in Green Bay on Sunday as his status was listed as doubtful. That reportedly will mean the Ravens will slide James Hurst to left tackle and plug in a backup at left guard. Many of you might remember James Hurst from such magical moments as getting bull-rushed into Joe Flacco's knee causing a season-ending ACL tear. I understand that Hurst has bulked up and improved overall this season, but it's difficult to imagine he'll replace a top 5 left tackle in the league on short notice.
If the Ravens are to win on the road this week, they're going to have to utilize their weapons properly for the first time this season. That means connecting with Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace on intermediate and deep routes, feeding Alex Collins the football 17-20 times, involving Nick Boyle and Ben Watson in the passing attack, and unleashing Danny Woodhead as a pass-catching back/slot receiver. Woodhead, if he can stay healthy, might just be the key to the Ravens' offensive woes. He gets open fast, catches nearly everything thrown his way, and makes defenders miss for fantastic yards after the catch. Woodhead's ability to get open almost immediately will help Flacco to get the ball out of his hands quickly and mitigate potential damage caused by Ronnie Stanley's absence.
Green Bay's defense isn't exactly daunting with a 22nd ranking in average yards allowed per game. The Ravens, by contrast, boast the NFL's 5 ranked defense, and they've put up some absolutely suffocating performances this season. It's tough to imagine that a rested Ravens defense wouldn't absolutely feast on a backup quarterback who won't enjoy the company of either of his top two running backs or his starting left tackle, but the defense can only do so much. In games where the offense can't sustain and finish drives, the Ravens defense finds itself on the field for far too much time, and ultimately opposing teams find ways to put up enough points to edge Baltimore. The Bears and Titans, for example, beat the Ravens because Baltimore simply couldn't make anything happen offensively in the first half of either game.
Poor competition from most of the rest of the AFC has meant that the Ravens are only one spot out of the second wildcard slot despite having an unimpressive 4-5 record. The sad thing is that the Ravens could easily be 6-3 right now if they had simply kicked one more field goal in their games against the Bears and Titans, but they can't rewrite the past. Instead, this team can show that it's good enough to make second half adjustments and perform every week the way it did against the Bengals, Browns, Raiders, and Dolphins. Fortunately for the Ravens, they're not nearly the only team suffering from catastrophic losses this season. The Colts, Texans, and Packers have all lost their dynamic starting quarterbacks to season-ending injuries, and all three teams have done quite a bit of losing for weeks. Baltimore is also staring down games against such non-competitive teams as the Browns and Bengals. The Lions and Steelers present far greater challenges for Joe and the boys, but it may not be necessary to beat either team to secure a wildcard playoff berth. I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility for the Ravens to beat the Lions in Baltimore since dome teams often struggle in cold outdoor environments such as Baltimore in December, but they simply must take care of business against the comparatively weak remaining teams to reach 9 wins and a likely playoff spot.
You might be asking why it is that only 9 games could very well land the Ravens a place in the post-season. Both the Titans and Jaguars have 6 wins already. Jacksonville is 6-3, and Tennessee is 6-4. Both teams own head to head wins against the Ravens, and both teams have favorable enough remaining schedules to easily win 9-10 games. The Jaguars have games remaining against such weak opponents as the Browns, Colts, 49ers, Cardinals, and Texans. The thing is that the Jaguars would only need 9 wins to beat out the Ravens for a wildcard spot because they own a head-to-head victory from Week 3. The Titans also own a tie-breaker over the Ravens with a head-to-head victory, and they, like the Jaguars, have remaining games against the Colts, Texans, Cardinals, and 49ers. I would estimate that the odds are incredibly high that both 6-win teams will earn a playoff spot, but the question is which will win the AFC South division and which will likely be relegated to the 5th playoff spot. Either way the Ravens will likely be vying for the 6th and final playoff spot, and the team challenging them for it is the Buffalo Bills...who just benched their starting quarterback for a backup.
Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked particularly impressive as of late as the Bills have lost their last two games by rather embarrassing margins to the Jets and Saints. To make matters worse, Taylor has been benched in favor of his backup. The Bills obviously hope that switching to a different passer will spark some offense for the first time in weeks, but a large part of Buffalo's ability to move the ball is due to Tyrod Taylor's mobility and ability to run and extend plays. The Chargers aren't likely going to the playoffs, but they have some impressive pass rushers such as Joey Bosa, and it's always difficult to go all the way across the country--especially when this with their backup quarterback's limited level of experience. It doesn't get a whole lot easier for the Bills as they then travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. The Bills then have two games remaining against the Patriots and two more games against their divisional rival Dolphins. The Bills do have one game remaining against an opponent whose starting quarterback will not be back this season, but beyond that, it's difficult to see them winning more than 2 of their remaining games. Let's assume that the Chargers and Chiefs beat Buffalo, and then the Patriots sweep them while the Dolphins split with them. Hell, even if the Bills sweep the Dolphins and beat up on the Colts, they'll only finish the season with 8 wins. If the Bills continue to stick with a backup quarterback, I believe they'll finish with only 7 wins.
There actually is a significant chance that, because the of the low level of competition in the AFC for the wildcard spot, an 8-8 team might just make it in. Let's hope the Ravens cover their bases with 9+ total wins, but anyway they can get into the playoffs is just fine with me. Now there's just the matter of beating the teams they should beat; that's often easier said than done in the NFL.
WEEK 11 PICKS
LIONS AT BEARS- It's difficult to know which Bears team will show up on Sunday, but the Lions have done quite well on the road with a 3-1 record in games outside of Detroit. The Bears are 3-6 will a few surprise wins, but they're also only 2-3 at home. LIONS 24-20
JAGUARS AT BROWNS- Guess who's probably in line for a first overall piiiiiiick. That's right, the worst team in the history of time! JAGUARS 34-13
BUCCANEERS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins should be able to manage a win over the Bucs with Jameis Winston sitting out because of a shoulder injury. Certainly doesn't help that Rey Maualuga was just cut because of a misdemeanor assault charge a few days ago, but Miami should be able to win this. DOLPHINS 21-17
RAMS AT VIKINGS- This is the best matchup of the week with two 7-2 teams. The Rams are on a 4 game winning streak, and they've won 6 of their last 7. The Vikings have won 6 of THEIR last 7 games despite the loss of their talented young RB, Dalvin Cook, earlier this season. The Rams are 4-0 on the road, and the Vikings are 4-1 at home. This is such a close matchup that the Vikings are only favored by 1.5 points. It's difficult, however, for me to see the Vikings, who will be without a starting defensive end and safety, stopping a rather ferocious Rams offense that has averaged 32.85 points per game over the last 7 contests and even managed to score 27 against the vaunted Jaguars D. The Rams are the healthier, more complete team going into this. RAMS 30-24
REDSKINS AT SAINTS- The Saints might actually be the most dangerous team in the league. They haven't lost a game since Week 2. Good luck, Redskins. SAINTS 38-21
CHIEFS AT GIANTS- The Chiefs are good at football...the Giants? Not so much. CHIEFS 28-14
CARDINALS AT TEXANS- The Cardinals will be starting Blaine Gabbert at QB today. It'll be nice for the Texans to get a rare win without Deshaun Watson. TEXANS 27-23
BILLS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are a decent team that has been the victim of one of the toughest schedules in the NFL up to this point. The Bills will be starting a backup QB after a cross country flight. CHARGERS 31-17
BENGALS AT BRONCOS- Too many people thought of the Bengals as being incredibly talented going into the last two seasons just because their minds immediately think of A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. What made the Bengals so talented several years ago was the combination of Green, Eifert, Sanu, and Marvin Jones. Green by himself simply isn't enough to take over a game. If the Bengals lose this game today, their chance at a playoff berth is nearly zero. They would be wise to pack it in and play for a top 5 draft pick. The Bengals have won only a single game on the road this season despite hanging tough against some decent opponents. The Broncos have done just as poorly, but they'll have homefield advantage today. The Broncos have lost 5 straight games, but they're 3-2 at home and the Bengals are, as mentioned earlier, 1-4 on the road. BRONCOS 24-21
PATRIOTS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders don't have nearly enough in the way of defense to stop Tom Brady...who happens to be the league's leader in passing yards right now. PATRIOTS 34-21
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- The Eagles appear to be the best, most complete team in the league. The Cowboys won't have Ezekiel Elliot for the next 6 games. EAGLES 33-23
FALCONS AT SEAHAWKS- The Falcons haven't been great this season, but they've won 2 of their last 3 games and will be playing a Seahawks secondary without most of its Legion of Boom. Russell Wilson, however, is having a career year from an offensive standpoint. One might say that the Seahawks won't have the defense to stop the Falcons, but I don't believe the Falcons have the defense to stop the Seahawks. SEAHAWKS 28-21
RAVENS AT PACKERS- The prospect of playing in Green Bay in mid November without Ronnie Stanley scares the bejesus out of me, but the Packers are simply too offensively banged up to challenge this Ravens secondary. The fact that the Packers won't have much to use in the running game will mean that Baltimore will be able to pin their ears back and get after a fairly talented, but inexperienced rookie quarterback. The Ravens haven't won many games, but when they've beaten teams this year, they've absolutely destroyed them. RAVENS 31-13
IF THE RAVENS ARE GOING TO MAKE A RUN AT THE PLAYOFFS, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A WEAK SECOND HALF SCHEDULE AND BEAT THE WOUNDED TEAMS THAT THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO BEAT. IF THEY CAN'T DO THAT TODAY, THEY'RE NOT OFFICIALLY ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION, BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THEY CAN WIN MUCH GOING FORWARD. THIS IS NEARLY AS HEALTHY AND RESTED AS THEY'VE BEEN, AND THEY'RE FACING ARGUABLY THE MOST BROKEN TEAM IN THE LEAGUE.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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