The pattern in recent years of Super Bowl-winning teams missing the playoffs in the following season is undoubtedly frustrating to fans of those franchises. The Ravens proved to be no exception to that trend as they went 8-8 and missed the playoffs in 2013. We, as Ravens fans, were frustrated as we watched a post-season berth slip away after the Ravens found themselves tied 17-17 in the 3rd quarter against a Bengals team they had already beaten earlier in the season...and then proceeded to blow it from that point on. As soon as the Ravens tied, however, I remarked to my sister that I couldn't see Baltimore winning that game anyway as they couldn't consistently move the ball or stop the Bengals except with interceptions. It seemed pessimistic at the time, but it proved accurate. I found myself not saddened or shocked by the end of the season, but simply numb and ready for the aggressive changes Ozzie Newsome most certainly had in store for this uneven team.
The season wasn't all bad. For a four game stretch it appeared as though the Ravens were right back to their "Team of Destiny" clutch style of heroics with triumphant wins reminiscent of the previous season's Super Bowl run. Toward the end of arguably the MOST triumphant of these wins, however, Joe Flacco's knee took a violent blow from the helmet of an opposing defender which ultimately sealed the fate of the Ravens. Suddenly a typically confident Flacco appeared terrified to step into his throws and, thus, put any pressure on his sprained knee. Joe even crumpled to the turf seemingly without reason in an embarrassing play at home against the Patriots the following week.
Instead of looking back at Joe Flacco's injury as that one critical factor that snuffed out the fire and drive of a team red-hot in the second half of the season, it's important that we look at Joe's knee injury as the impetus for change to an obviously flawed team. This wasn't the first time that Joe Flacco found himself on the receiving end of a devastating hit. Flacco was the the second most sacked quarterback in the league, and that is not a category in which a QB wishes himself to be elite. The offensive line simply wasn't doing its job, and the Ravens organization could not stand by any longer and watch their 120 million dollar investment get pummeled.
I know that the vast majority of fans wished Juan Castillo would have been tarred, feathered, and then set ablaze ceremoniously atop one of the presumably fully functional towers at the Castle/Under Armour Performance Center, but John Harbaugh had other less draconian plans for the coach that he dubbed "the finest teacher of football in the National Football League." Those plans apparently included a public decree of job security for Castillo while the Ravens let go of their previously successful running backs coach, Wilbert Montgomery, and their Super Bowl winning offensive line coach, Andy Moller. It remains unclear as to why Castillo received such a ringing endorsement and promotion after his changes to the Ravens' blocking schemes led to horrendous protection for Flacco and the worst rushing attack in Ravens history, but worries about Castillo were soon drowned out by far more exciting news.
The hiring of Gary Kubiak in the eleventh hour of an offensive coordinator search brought me great hope for the 2014 season. Not only has Gary proven himself as a head coach, but he has actually won a pair of Super Bowls as an offensive coordinator in the 1990's. Kubiak's play-calling ability is unquestionably sound as he more recently called plays for the Texans during a period wherein they routinely finished as a top 10 offense. The Ravens have saturated their team with quality players from the Texans during the last few seasons, and that will help to spread a level of familiarity in Baltimore with Kubiak's system during this off-season period of adjustment.
The Ravens didn't hit rock bottom in 2013 as they came only one quarter of one game away from reaching their 6th playoff berth in a row, but what would that have accomplished? In all likelihood, the Baltimore wouldn't have gone past the first or second round of the playoffs, and it's possible that the team would feel a false sense of accomplishment after having reached the post-season after such a rocky first 9 games. In this case it's better to watch the Ravens' playoff hopes crash and burn in order to fuel the desire within the organization to make strong enough changes to get the Ravens back to their previous state of dominance. The way I see it, that's EXACTLY what they're doing right now.
THE WISHLIST BY POSITION
Mock drafts might be thought provoking and fun for some, but they're far from accurate in most cases. I've found a much better strategy is to come up with a wishlist for a particular team. This list is achieved by first analyzing a teams' greatest draft needs by position. The second step is to evaluate the talent in the upcoming draft and rank the top 3-4 players at each of these positions of need. With enough careful thought and game tape analysis, you'll come away with a decent draft board for the first 3 rounds. There's no way to know who other teams will pick, so many players you have ranked highly may not be available when your team makes its selection. You will, however, have a good idea of who they'll pick if someone on your wishlist comes off the board. Both of the Ravens' top two draft picks from last year were in my top three, although I had Arthur Brown as their first round pick and Matt Elam or Jonathan Cyprien going to the Ravens in the second round. The picks become far less predictable as the rounds progress, but that's just part of the fun of this whole process. Let's take a look at the Ravens biggest positions of need for this season.
An argument can be made that either free safety or right offensive tackle is the biggest position of need going into 2014. The loss of Ed Reed and the lack of a true free safety replacement led to miscommunications such as that which allowed a critical Jordy Nelson touchdown in Week 6 against the Packers. Even when Matt Elam was playing his assignment correctly, he still managed to get beat deep because of less-than-adequate pass coverage skills that true free safeties possess. A good example of this came against the Bengals in Week 17 when A.J. Green absolutely toasted a stumbling Matt Elam on a 53 yard touchdown pass in the first quarter. Green experienced negligible success against the Ravens with Ed Reed lurking in the secondary, and that was even in the last two seasons of Ed's time with the Ravens wherein he was noticeably past his prime. It's clearly unfair to blame Matt Elam for not being Ed Reed, but there's no question that Baltimore needs a natural free safety to compliment the other pieces of an otherwise excellent secondary.
It's easy to point to the relative success of the Ravens defense last season and the utter LACK of success of the Ravens offense as good reasons to proclaim offensive tackle the biggest positional need heading into the draft. Michael Oher never quite became the lineman for which the Ravens had hoped, but he still gave Baltimore a good number of quality performances including fantastic pass protection during the spectacular Super Bowl run. Oher was, however, heavily penalized, and he often made inexcusable errors such as his three false starts at HOME against the Steelers last Thanksgiving night. Oher's run-blocking ability last season was atrocious and appeared to have gotten worse every year since his fantastic rookie season.
Protecting Flacco and creating holes through which the Ravens running backs can consistently run are both huge priorities if the Ravens hope to get back to the playoffs next season. With that said, however, the Ravens have already made massive and sweeping changes to their offensive coaching and player personnel including a new offensive coordinator with a totally new offensive system, an upgrade at the center position, and the return of Kelechi Osemele as a starting left guard. It is for this reason that acquiring a talented free safety must be the first priority for the Ravens in the 2014 draft. It must also be noted that the Ravens won't likely be able to pick an elite tackle (one talented enough to be able to also play left tackle) with the 17th pick in the first round, but they should be able to pick one of the two top free safeties in the draft at that point if all goes well.
I'm fairly convinced the Ravens will use their first two picks on a free safety and offensive tackle, but it's entirely possible that Ozzie Newsome will find himself staring at a draft board with remaining top talent at the wide receiver or tight end positions. This draft in particular appears saturated with receiving talent. If a receiver such as Mike Evans or a tight end such as Eric Ebron falls to the Ravens at #17, it could be too difficult to pass up the opportunity to draft such an explosive weapon to ultimately take the place of Steve Smith or Owen Daniels. The more likely scenario is that a slightly less highly touted receiver falls to the Ravens in the second round of the draft, at which point they could pull the trigger if he's the most talented player left on the board.
Some might bring up the point that the Ravens are actually quite well stocked at receiver and tight end at the moment, but might be staring serious running back depth issues in the face soon enough if Ray Rice is either convicted of a felony or at least suspended for a few games. As poorly as the Ravens running backs performed in 2013, I firmly believe both Rice and Pierce will be back in impressive form in 2014 after having rehabbed nagging injuries and become fully integrated into Gary Kubiak's offensive system. No, I would not take any running back with the third pick of this draft. The Ravens third greatest position of need is cornerback.
The Ravens lost Corey Graham and could use more talent and depth at a position so paramount to defensive success in a league that relies so heavily on aerial attacks. The Seahawks showed the incredible value of a deep, aggressive secondary as they spanked the Broncos up and down the field in Super Bowl 48. The Ravens have two top notch starting corners in Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith, but they'll need more depth for nickel and dime packages when facing pass-heavy teams. Ok, so that's the order of our draft priority: free safety, right tackle, and cornerback. I acknowledge that there's a chance the Ravens don't pick a cornerback with their third pick of the draft, but they do have two third round picks, and there's a good chance that one of them is an athletic corner.
FREE SAFETIES
CALVIN PRYOR- This Louisville safety plays like a Raven. His game tape shows devastating hits and a knack for forcing fumbles and making impressive, physics-defying interceptions. Pryor is a free safety, but a good majority of his highlights are of impressive plays in run support. Pryor's game tape is so impressive because of the ferocity with which he hits his opponents, but there are times where he fails to wrap up opponents or takes a bad angle and misses entirely. Pryor has great size at 6'2" and 208 pounds, but he doesn't have elite speed as he ran an official 4.58 at the NFL combine. Pryor could also find himself on the receiving end of penalty flags and fines if he makes helmet to helmet contact with receivers during his any of his violent, thunderous hits. With that said, I would be absolutely thrilled to see the Ravens pick Calvin Pryor at #17 in May. Take a look at his highlights: ULTIMATE CALVIN PRYOR HIGHLIGHTS
HA HA CLINTON-DIX- Clinton-Dix seems to be widely regarded as the best free safety in this draft. He may not hit like Pryor, make as many tackles, or force as many fumbles, but his football I.Q. is said to be quite high. This Alabama product has displayed impressive range in pass coverage which is something the Ravens sorely need going forward. Even though he doesn't have as many spectacular hits as Calvin Pryor, Clinton-Dix has far more NFL-friendly tackling style. Clinton-Dix tends to wrap up on his tackles and gator-roll in order to bring an opponent down rather than simply lowering his shoulder and trying to knock a receiver or running back out. Wrapping up and rolling is something employed by Ray Lewis quite often over his lengthy career. This not only helps to avoid fines and penalties, but it also helps to avoid injuries from dangerous collisions like those suffered by Ed Reed in the later years of his career as a Raven. You won't often see Ha Ha hitting receivers high, but instead wrapping up anywhere on the torso or around the legs. Clinton-Dix is almost exactly the same size as Calvin Pryor at 6'1" 208 pounds, and he ran an identical official 40 yard dash time at the NFL combine of 4.58 seconds. Ha Ha's superior pass coverage skills and situational recognition would likely prove highly complimentary to Matt Elam's traditional strong safety talents. If he's available at #17, the Ravens would be nuts not to take him. Take a look at this highlights: HA HA CLINTON-DIX ALABAMA HIGHLIGHTS
TERRENCE BROOKS- I loved what I saw the first time I watched Terrence Brooks' highlights. As you'll soon see, there are plenty of spectacular interceptions, great wrapped-up tackles, forced fumbles, passes defensed, and big hits. Brooks is quite fast with an official combine 40 of 4.42 (roughly the same as Torrey Smith) and that track speed converts quite well on the field as he appears quite explosive with great range. So why shouldn't the Ravens go after Brooks in the first round if Clinton-Dix and Pryor are no longer on the board? Well that's simple. Brooks is undersized compared to the two aforementioned top-tier safeties. He's 5'11" and that's not terrible, but he's also 198 pounds and only bench pressed 10 reps of 225 pounds at the combine. Bench press isn't everything, especially not for a safety, but it reflects an obvious lack of time and effort in the weight room. Brooks is built far more like a corner than a safety. I would worry about his durability given his lacking musculature and recent injury history. With all of that said, if the Ravens don't take a safety in the first round, they may be wise to trade a 3rd round pick away in order to trade UP in the second round to ensure they can snag Brooks. If he can put in the work in the weight room, Terrance Brooks could be the future of free safety for the Ravens. Take a look at his impressive highlights: ULTIMATE TERRENCE BROOKS HIGHLIGHTS
LAMARCUS JOYNER- This Florida State Seminole has one of the most entertaining game tapes to watch out of all of the safeties I've listed. It's not because he's the most physically gifted, because Joyner stands at only 5'8" and weighs a mere 190 pounds. It's simply that the guy is an athlete. He's explosive, he's great in pass coverage and run support, and he plays like he's 5 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier. If the Ravens fail to pick up Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor in the first round because they've opted to pick a left tackle, and if they've gone through the second and still haven't picked up a safety, then Lamarcus Joyner would actually be a great value in the third round. He could quite possibly do well at nickel corner, and despite his stature, he could be a great all-around defensive back to add depth to the Ravens secondary. He's not the guy I'd want to replace Ed Reed, but he can still clearly make a team better. I feel as though I'm rooting for Rudy Ruettiger when watching this diminutive safety take down a much bigger receiver, running back, or tight end...except Ruettiger had absolutely zero athletic talent and this guy is a friggin BEAST. Take a look at his highlights: ULTIMATE LAMARCUS JOYNER HIGHLIGHTS
OFFENSIVE TACKLES
TAYLOR LEWAN- From a talent standpoint, Taylor Lewans should not be available when the Ravens pick at #17. Because of some questionable off the field activity, however, Lewan could slide to the middle of the round. Lewan was allegedly in a bar fight last December and was charged last night in association with that incident. This University of Michigan product ran an incredibly fast official 40 yard dash at the NFL combine of 4.87 seconds. To give you some perspective, Jerry Rice ran the 40 in 4.71 seconds many years ago and he is widely regarded as the greatest (though not nearly the fastest) wide receiver in history. There's no question that Lewan is quick for an offensive lineman, and at 6'7" with 33.5 inch arms, he also has prototypical length for an offensive tackle. Lewan is only slightly undersized as far as muscle is concerned. He could use some extra time in the weight room as his lower body isn't particularly thick. With that said, what Lewan lacks in brute strength, he makes up for in speed, agility, and finesse. We can only hope that Taylor Lewan's draft stock has fallen enough for 16 other teams to pass on him, because he would likely be the last piece to the Ravens' offensive line puzzle and a great replacement for the departed Michael Oher. I don't, however, expect the New York Giants to pass on him if he's available at pick #12...but there's always hope! Take a look at how Lewan matched up against Jadeveon Clowney: JADEVEON CLOWNEY VS. TAYLOR LEWAN (2013 BOWL)
ZACK MARTIN- The Ravens have been linked to Martin in a number of mock drafts as some believe he'll be more likely available than Taylor Lewan at #17. Martin isn't quite as tall as Lewan as he stands 6'4", but he has almost identical mass at 308 pounds. Martin, like Lewan, could stand to put on 10-15 pounds of muscle, but his agility helps to make up for being slightly undersized for an NFL offensive tackle. His arm length is also only half an inch less than that of Taylor Lewan despite a 3 inch disparity in height between the two first round prospects. Martin manhandled the nation's sack leader, Trent Murphy, in Notre Dame's match-up against Standford at the end of the 2013 season. Glancing at a stat sheet, one might say that Martin's size shouldn't be an issue because Michael Oher is only 6'4" and roughly 6-pounds heavier than Martin, but I can personally attest that Michael Oher's height is under-reported (possibly on purpose) but the Ravens. In reality, Oher is easily 6'5"-6'6", but that doesn't mean Martin can't be extreme effective on the right side. Like Oher, Martin is extremely quick on his feet, and isn't far behind Taylor Lewan in talent level. It's also entirely possible that Martin could prove a better run-blocker than Oher has been recently. Martin isn't my first choice for the Ravens' first round pick, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't be happy if they pick him. If Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Calvin Pryor, and Taylor Lewan are all off the board just before the Ravens pick, it wouldn't be a bad idea for them to trade back in the first round to maybe the mid 20s in order to get another early round pick at still be able to pick up Martin. Take a look at his performance against Trent Murphy: ZACK MARTIN VS. TRENT MURPHY (NOTRE DAME VS. STANFORD)
JOE BITONIO- This Nevada product, like Zack Martin, does not possess ideal dimensions for an NFL offensive tackle. He's 6'4" and 307 pounds, but he's an excellent run blocker and surprisingly quick for an offensive lineman with an official 4.97 second 40 yard dash time. His arm length 34 inches so he does possess decent length for his height, but his technique needs some work as he tends to shoot his hands wide when in pass protection and tends not to bend as well as he probably could at times. Bitonio could stand to spend some extra time in the weight room as he only bench pressed 225 for 22 reps at the combine, and that doesn't demonstrate particularly good upper body strength. Joe isn't a first round offensive tackle, but he's a high-motor player with the work ethic that could ultimately lead to him correcting his technique errors and becoming a starter on the right side. Like Marshall Yanda, Joe often finishes his run-blocks far down field. It's quite possible that he'd be a better fit at guard, but his ability to fit in at both of these positions as well as his arm length, speed, and drive will make him a valuable asset if picked in the second or third round. It wouldn't be a terrible thing to have a speedy, great run-blocker on the right side in Gary Kubiak's running scheme. Take a look at Joe's highlights and pay special attention to his technique as he could definitely stand to lower his pad level at times, but he's quite an athlete: JOE BITONIO--2014 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT
CORNERBACKS
*It must be noted that these are not the most talented corners in the draft, but the most talented corners that I believe will be available by the 3rd round.
JASON VERRETT- I don't expect the Ravens to pick a corner in the first or even second round, but they have two picks in the 3rd round and that will give them a great opportunity to add corner depth to a secondary that lost Corey Graham in free agency. Jason Verrett of TCU possesses elite speed with an official 40 time of 4.38 seconds and excellent coverage skills. He's not ideal corner height at 5'9" at that's what makes his stock drop from 1st round talent to 2nd or 3rd round talent. Even against top teams such as LSU Verrett held his own and mostly shut down his side of the field. The Ravens already have two top notch corners with better size to put on the outside, but they could use an extremely fast, athletic corner to blanket slot receivers in coverage. He will unquestionably have to spend plenty of time in the weight room, however, as he could easily stand to gain 5-10 pounds of muscle to help his tackling ability against bigger backs and receivers as well as increase his level of durability. He's 3 inches shorter than Corey Graham, but similar in build to a young Cortland Finnegan and easily just as fast and energetic. Verrett would be a fantastic pick-up in the 3rd round. This guy flies to the ball and plays like a Raven. Take a look at this highlights: ULTIMATE JASON VERRETT HIGHLIGHTS
PHILIP GAINES- I hadn't heard of Gaines before doing my draft research, but I must say I was impressed with his highlights. Gaines possesses good height at 6'0" and BLISTERING speed with a 4.38 official combine 40 time. He's only 4 pounds heavier than Jason Verrett, but is a much heavier hitter and isn't afraid to level a receiver with a punishing blow. With that said, Philip Gaines could, like Jason Verrett, benefit from a little more time in the weight room to improve his durability, but I believe his upside is quite high. He had a whopping 35 passes defensed in the last two seasons, so I'll post one video of high highlights from 2012 and a shorter video of his highlights from 2013. This would be a good 3rd round pick-up, no question. Take a look at his highlights from 2012: PHILIP GAINES 2012 PASS BREAKUPS
Also take a look at this highlights from 2013: PHILIP GAINES--2014 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT HIGHLIGHTS
DONTAE JOHNSON- This big-bodied corner out of N.C. State may not be first round material, but he does have first round size and speed at 6'2" 200 pounds with an official combine 40 time of 4.45 seconds. He doesn't have outstanding arm length at 31 inches, and he doesn't always take great angles. Johnson had a tough time covering Sammy Watkins (as most college corners would) and although he's not undersized, he could stand to add 5-8 pounds of muscle to his long, lean frame to increase his physicality and durability. He does, however, cover tight ends extremely well and that can make him a huge asset to the Ravens. His coverage and balls skills aren't as good as Jason Verrett's, but he still possesses enough speed, size, and athleticism to ultimately make a good second or third corner. He could benefit greatly from Lardarius Webb's mentorship. This guy is a bit of a project, but you can't teach size and it's tough to teach speed. Take a look at his bowl performance against Vanderbilt: DONTAE JOHNSON VS. VANDERBILT
Mock Drafts are purely speculative fun. There's almost no way to accurately predict what each team will do, because each team's choice depends on the choices of the teams before them. Draft wishlists and positional rankings, however, are more fun for me as they go further in depth with a specific team's needs and potential pick candidates. I maintain that the Ravens biggest need is a talented, natural free safety to re-solidify the middle of the defensive backfield and complete and otherwise stacked secondary. Finding a good right tackle comes in a close second as the greatest position of need, but the Ravens have done enough to bolster their offensive line already that they shouldn't overreach in the first round if a top 3-4 tackle isn't available. They'll get much better value out of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor than a second round tackle that could potentially be taken later in the first round or early in the second.
I know the Ravens offense was painfully anemic last year, and that would make some believe that offense should be the team's biggest draft priority. The Ravens, however, have simply made too many moves to strengthen their offense thus far and too few to address the key defensive secondary departures of the last two seasons of Ed Reed and Corey Graham. The hiring of Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator was a massive upgrade over Jim Caldwell, and the acquisition of Steve Smith, Owen Daniels, Jeremy Zuttah, and Justin Forsett give the Ravens depth and proven playmakers at nearly every offensive position. Get ready, Baltimore, this looks like it could be easily one of the most complete teams the Ravens have ever fielded. Ed and Ray are gone, but their fierce style rubbed off on Suggs, Ngata, Webb, and Jimmy Smith. Ozzie Newsome is about due for a monumental draft, and with the talent and depth in this one, I don't think there's any way he'll miss.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
