I've heard and read for months that the Ravens need pass rushers--and they do. This very well could be Terrell Suggs' final season, and drafting his eventual replacement would be a prudent move. The question is whether or not Suggs' replacement can be found with the 16th draft pick. The other question is whether or not a pass rusher available at the 16th pick would be the best value when the Ravens other glaring needs are taken into consideration.
No one within the Ravens organization could be satisfied with the 31 sacks the Ravens defense accrued during the 2016 season. Elvis Dumervil's absence for much of the season meant only half of the league-leading pass rushing tandem from 2014 actually suited up. The Ravens found decent production from Matt Judon, but his 5 sacks paled in comparison to a health Dumervil's 17 from three seasons ago.
Now all of that does not mean, however, that the only way to improve the pass rush is by using the #16 pick on the best available pass rusher. Suggs still led the team in sacks coming off of a torn Achilles and playing through a torn biceps. The Ravens defense also was highly ranked all season despite lower sack totals. No one is saying the pass rush couldn't use improvement, but how much could it be improved with what's available at #16?
After watching a copious volume of film, I can't justify taking any pass rusher at the #16 spot who is projected to be available in the middle of the round. I have, instead, decided that UCLA's Takkarist McKinley would be the best value if and only if the Ravens traded back into the 20s in the first round. McKinley is a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end who would likely fill Dumervil's spot if he's picked. His technique is raw, but his power and speed are staggering. McKinley clocked in at an official 4.59 second forty yard dash at the NFL combine, and his brute strength is on display in his film which can be seen here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOjRzOjsDg8
Unlike Dumervil, McKinley is also a quality run defender, and that's what could ultimately make him Suggs' replacement. If the Ravens trade back, McKinley would likely be the best value left, and picking him later in the round is the only scenario in which I can say he'd be the highest value available.
If the Ravens don't trade back in the first round and stand pat at #16, I'd love to see them take one of two players. The first is the sexy pick in the minds of many: Corey Davis. Much has been written about Clemson's Mike Williams with his prototypical height (6'4") and sensational combination of catching radius and physicality when going up in jump ball situations. The football world also gasped when speedy deep threat John Ross broke the combine 40 record with a blistering 4.22 second effort. Ross, however, is undersized at under 6'0" tall, and he has had two major knee surgeries in the last 4 years. Oh, and he injured himself breaking the 40 yard dash record. Corey Davis isn't without his injuries, but he's far faster and more explosive than Mike Williams while being much bigger than John Ross. Davis also has the best hands of each of the three top projected wide receivers, and is easily the most polished rout runner. The only caveat with Davis is that a recent injury kept him from running at the NFL combine, but his on-field speed can be seen in his film...and it's elite. Take a look:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwieKrx3yn0&t=52s
Corey Davis could potentially immediately become the Ravens #1 receiver this season. He may not begin the season as the #1, but it wouldn't take long with his nearly flawless skillset. No one in college football history caught for more yards, and he was no stranger to the endzone. A huge factor in getting such a receiver the football, however, is the offensive line. At the moment the Ravens are without a true starting center and right tackle. They could potentially bring in a stop-gap at center such as Nick Mangold, but it would make sense to invest another first round pick in a right offensive tackle to help keep Joe Flacco clean in the pocket. The Ravens would likely need look no further than Alabama's Cam Robinson. Robinson has the size, athleticism, and power to both protect Flacco and open up running lanes for the Ravens running backs. Having another first round pick next to Marshal Yanda could go a long way to reviving the Ravens rushing attack, and that would do nearly as much to take pressure off of Flacco as improved pass protection. Take a look at Robinson's film:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QFoz9WWlD8&t=63s
Other than offensive tackle, wide receiver, and outside linebacker, the Ravens need to reload at corner and inside linebacker. The issue is that it appears as though no corners worth taking with the 16th pick will be available when the Ravens are on the clock. It's highly likely Ozzie goes after another corner in either the 2nd or 3rd round. With the return to health of Jimmy Smith, the further development of Tavon Young, and the addition of Brandon Carr, Baltimore is not in as dire straights as far as cornerback is concerned as they were at the tail end of the season. Brandon Carr, however, is not nearly at the level of a healthy Jimmy Smith, and Tavon Young, though a total draft gem, is undersized and most suitable for guarding slot receivers. The Ravens could use depth in the event of yet another injury to Jimmy Smith and simply more size and speed at the position considering the age of both Jimmy Smith and Brandon Carr. In another year or two, both Smith and Carr could very well be gone, so it wouldn't hurt to have a young corner to develop into a starter over the next year.
As far as inside linebacker is concerned, it would be wonderful to get another ferocious backer such as Reuben Foster despite his diluted urine sample at the combine, but that doesn't appear to be the Ravens style. The Ravens have only ever used first round picks on inside linebackers with Ray Lewis and the heir to his position, C.J. Mosley. Mosley isn't Ray, but he's a two time Pro Bowler in his first three seasons in the league. The thing is that the Ravens have the uncanny ability to find undrafted linebackers to play next to Mosley and Ray for years. Bart Scott, Jameel McClain, Dannell Ellerbe, Josh Bynes, and Zachary Orr all played at extremely high levels next two either Ray or C.J., and there's little reason to believe the Ravens won't be able to get similar production from another hidden gem player. They also have Kamalei Correa to try out at the spot, and he was a second round pick. So while inside linebacker and corner are big needs, they're not ones that would be best served filling with the #16 pick in this particular draft.
I don't pretend to know what the Ravens are thinking or who they value highly, but I can certainly guess based on their past drafts and current situation. Whoever the Ravens pick, I expect them to get a quality player if it's at the #16 spot. The #16 spot is far better than the #26 spot and far less of a gamble. Ozzie has an excellent track record of picking in the middle of the round and above including their last two picks within that range: C.J. Mosley and Ronnie Stanley. Things have been far more dicey as of late when picking toward the end of the round with players such as Matt Elam. Ravens fans should be confident that Ozzie and Eric DeCosta will get an immediate contributor with the 16th pick. Well, there's not much else to say, so let's kick back Thursday night and watch the spectacle that is the NFL Draft!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
