This simply was not my year for playoff predictions. I am currently 4-6 after going 20-2 in the last two post-seasons. Maybe I haven't had as much time to spend analyzing data, or maybe football simply isn't always predictable based on statistics and analysis. I could sit here and blame my losses on things out of my control, but the fact is that I realized my error in reasoning and analysis after each incorrect prediction this post-season. In the AFC Championship, for example, I bet that the Patriots would beat the Broncos because the Broncos have a poor pass defense. The Patriots, however, had an offense that depended greatly on its ability to run the football. Somehow I didn't take into serious consideration the fact that the Broncos had the 8th ranked run defense in the league this season, and I assumed that the Patriots would be able to take advantage of a banged up Broncos' secondary. Lo and behold, the Broncos run defense mostly stuffed the Patriots rushing attack, and that made the Patriots one dimensional. If I had researched more extensively, I would have also found out that the winner of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady's AFC Championship matches was always the quarterback playing at home. Oh yeah...let's not forget the weather. It was nearly 60 degrees that day in Denver, and Peyton Manning has thus far avoided playing any of this season's playoff games in serious cold weather despite playing each game in Denver. I have NO idea how I bet against Manning at home in warm weather, but it only shows that more time and attention to detail will be required for next year's playoff predictions if I hope to get back to my accurate ways of years past.
Maybe Old Man Winter is a Broncos fan because Peyton Manning has received an incredibly timely gift of unseasonably warm Denver winter weather in the last month. Maybe it's fate that may grant Manning a similar fairytale ending to his remarkable and lengthy career as that enjoyed by Ray Lewis last year. Whatever the reason, the conditions are perfect for history's most intelligent football player to win his second Super Bowl ring against one of the NFL's best defenses. Yes, I said it--ONE of the NFL's best defenses. I still consider the 49ers defense better this season because of its ability shut down high powered offenses on the road such as that of the Packers in Green Bay in the playoffs. The Seahawks defense gets a huge boost from the deafening level of noise from their fans in Seattle during home games, and that has allowed the Seahawks to suffocate opposing offenses at home far better than on the road. One the road, for example, the Seahawks barely beat the Texans in overtime this season, and Houston was basically the worst team in the NFL. Also on the road, the Seahawks lost to the Colts and gave up 34 points to a team that did little in the playoffs. No games, however, better exemplify the Seahawks' homefield advantage than those played against the 49ers.
The Seahawks absolutely flattened the 49ers in Seattle early in the season 29-3, and then proceeded to lose to that very same 49ers team in San Francisco 19-17. There's little doubt in my mind that the 49ers were the more talented team in this season's NFC Championship, but injuries to key players during the game and the Seattle's homefield advantage gave the Seahawks the edge they needed to squeak by the 49ers on national television. The Seahawks will not have a homefield advantage on Super Bowl Sunday. There will likely be plenty of Seahawks fans screaming themselves hoarse, but there will also most likely be just as many Broncos fans if not more doing the same for their respective team. To make matters worse for the Hawks, the weather is supposed to be quite good for New York/New Jersey in the winter. Weather.com is predicting the temperature at the start of the game to be roughly 43 degrees, and that's easily warm enough for Peyton Manning to dominate any team up and down the field for 60 minutes. In fact, the temperature will likely not drop below 38 degrees during any point of the game, and no precipitation is predicted to occur until hours after the game has finished.
If it hasn't already become abundantly clear, I'm predicting a Broncos win. In relatively warm weather, Peyton Manning is the king. This season he has a supporting cast that has helped him to lead the most productive offense in the history of the NFL. The Seahawks have a great defense, but it's not a historically great defense. It's not that of '85 Bears and it's CERTAINLY nowhere near that of the 2000 Ravens. This is a Seahawks defense that has yet to face any seriously potent offenses this season in tough road environments, and they're about to face the toughest offense in the NFL roughly 3000 miles away from home. The Seahawks defense is statistically elite, but please be aware that the Seattle faced exactly one top 10 ranked offense during the entire season and that was the Saints at home. Compare that to the 2013 Ravens defense which performed relatively well despite facing the 1st, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 10th ranked offenses in the NFL this season.
I prefer to base my opinion of any particular team or component of a team on how well they've performed against tough competition. It is for this reason that I believe the Seahawks defense to be at least somewhat overrated. Peyton Manning may struggle at times during the Super Bowl, and his team may struggle to put up points in the first half of the game. Peyton Manning, however, is famous for his halftime adjustments, and he should have little problem finding soft spots even in the highly touted Legion of Boom. Peyton's quick release makes sacking him nearly impossible, and Knowshon Moreno's explosive running helps to open up space over the middle for the Broncos receiving corps. Let's not forget that the Broncos possess the most complete receiving corps in the league with a huge, athletic tight end, the best slot receiver in the NFL, and two tall, elite wide receivers. Richard Sherman can proclaim himself to be the best corner in the game, but he has faced only one wide receiver that finished in the top 10 this season and that was Andre Johnson on the miserable Texans. Sherman can pat himself on the back for his 8 interceptions, but not a single one of them came against an elite passing quarterback this season. Sherman can stick Demariyus Thomas at the line all he wants, but Peyton tends to find open receivers and find them quickly. I haven't historically liked Peyton Manning in the playoffs, but his array of weapons is so vast and the weather will not likely prohibit him from distributing the ball to them.
Russell Wilson is not Peyton Manning. He has shown plenty of athleticism and poise for a young quarterback, but he's not winning league MVP anytime soon (because Peyton just won it for the 5th time). The Seahawks have a poor pass offense with few receiving weapons with which to threaten the Broncos pass defense. If the Patriots can't move the ball on the Broncos, I have no idea how the Seahawks expect to do so. The Hawks rely heavily on their running game, but the Broncos defend the run almost as well as anyone else in the league. Marshawn Lynch will likely be held under 100 rushing yards, and that will put the ball in Wilson's hands too often and for too long. The Seahawks simply won't be able to score as many points as the Broncos, and that means a loss.
FINAL PREDICTION: BRONCOS 27-20.
RECENT RAVENS NEWS
The Ravens hired the best offensive coordinator available this off-season when they brought Gary Kubiak on board. Kubiak's system should fit Flacco quite well with an emphasis on running the football to set up deep passes off of play-action. Kubiak's system should also further develop Flacco's ability to roll out of the pocket and extend plays with passes on the run. Gary K. also loves to use tight ends, and he ESPECIALLY likes to use tight ends in the redzone. It's possible that we'll see Dennis Pitta and a newly drafted tight end or possibly even Matt Furstenburg in two tight end sets fairly frequently next season. A big problem with the Ravens' offensive system over the past few years has been an inability to find creative ways to get receivers open. Kubiak's system should take care of that issue assuming that the offensive line improves. The bottom line is that Gary Kubiak's offense gets results. He has won a Super Bowl as an offensive coordinator, and he has had many elite offenses as a head coach. He is not Cam Cameron who kept Drew Brees under 3500 yards per season for 5 years, and he's definitely not Jim Caldwell who had never EVER been an offensive coordinator before 2012 and may never be one again. Gary is a man with a plan, and hopefully that plan will bring Ray Rice's career back from the dead and get the Ravens deep into the playoffs next season.
The limiting factor for Gary Kubiak's offense may be what likely limited the Ravens offense this season: JUAN CASTILLO. For reasons I can't begin to explain, Juan Castillo was kept on the Ravens staff and somehow promoted to offensive line coach. Castillo displayed a total inability to get anything out of a group of linemen of which most of whom had just won a Super Bowl. It's clear that John Harbaugh insisted on keeping yet another one of his buddy's on his staff, and Steve Bisciotti decided to give John a chance to prove that he didn't make a mistake by bringing him on board the Ravens organization. It's entirely possible that the Ravens line will improve by virtue of Kubiak's offensive system and improved line personnel, but it's also possible that Castillo will find SOME way to waste another year of our lives. I'm optimistic that Castillo will have less schematic authority with Kubiak as offensive coordinator, but Ravens fans should be wary of the power Harbaugh seems to give to his inept cronies.
Ultimately I believe the hiring of Gary Kubiak will do enough for the Ravens offense that Juan Castillo simply won't be able to ruin it. I'm anxiously looking forward to the draft in early May, but I'm just as excited to watch film of Ravens draft prospects and see how these potential future Ravens do at the NFL combine. I'll once again post draft wishlists with info on my top 3 picks for each of the Ravens' major positions of need. Baltimore has a much better spot in the draft order this year, and that should allow them to get a highly sought-after player rather than settling for bargain talent that could have possibly been picked at the beginning of the second round.
BUCKLE UP, RAVENS FANS
THE BIRDS OF BALTIMORE WILL BE BACK IN A BIG WAY IN 2014!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! (GO DRAFT A GREAT WR!)
