Saturday, February 4, 2017

SUPER BOWL 51 ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION

     It's always amazing to see how many sports fans and analysts make predictions seemingly without much in-depth consideration for major obvious factors leading up to a post-season matchup.  For the past two weeks I've heard sports radio personalities gush about the potency of the Atlanta Falcons and their supposedly unstoppable offense.  That offense, of course, led the league in scoring this season, and it features arguably the best receiver in the NFL, an elite running back, and a quarterback who will likely earn MVP honors.  So why then was it so incredibly difficult for me to immediately join in their optimistic confidence about the Falcons? 

     As dominant as the Falcons have appeared during the playoffs, one must consider who they faced and where they faced them to arrive at the Super Bowl.  If you've followed Purple Nightmare throughout this post-season, you know that Purple Nightmare has gone 9-1 in predicting the winner of games.  The only incorrect prediction was the impossibly close Packers-Cowboys game.  The key to predicting these games correctly, as is the case every season, is taking all major relevant statistics and factors into account and completely ignoring that which is not applicable.  It was easy to suggest the Falcons would beat the Seahawks as the Seahawks' scoring average on the road was so incredibly low and Earl Thomas' absence meant the Legion of Boom lacked a large chunk of its boom.  It didn't matter how well the Seahawks performed at home the week prior because they weren't facing the Falcons in Seattle.  It was also easy to predict a Falcons win over the Packers because the Falcons had already beaten the Packers in Atlanta earlier in the season, and this time around the Packers had a host of injuries to both key offensive and defensive players.  The Packers also had the 31st ranked pass defense in the league, and there was no question they'd struggle to slow down or halt the Falcons' offensive drives.

     The New England Patriots do not feature the glaring flaws that characterized the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks.  The Patriots don't have a host of league-leading weapons on offense or defense, but their offensive and defensive units are, nevertheless, some of the league's best.  The Patriots have, in fact, averaged 35 points per game thus far in this post-season, and they have done so against the 1st and 12th ranked defenses in the league.  Sure, the Texans were offensively useless, but the Steelers had actually displayed both incredibly offensive and defensive might as of late before being trounced by a balanced, disciplined Patriots team. 

     I must admit that I thought there would be no way New England would return to the Super Bowl after Rob Gronkowski's season ended.  He's easily the most talented tight end in league history, but his injury issues have kept him from being the consistently dominant threat his team has needed in a host of key games late in seasons.  I thought the Ravens would soundly beat the Gronkless Patriots after dominating the Dolphins at home 38-6 the week prior, but Belichick found a way to coach his way out of the loss of a major weapon.  It was at that point that I was reminded of two things: #1 the Patriots have an incredibly disciplined defense and #2 the Patriots offensive system finds ways to utilize relatively unknown players who would probably never stand out on other teams.  Players such as Chris Hogan and even Wes Welker were absolute nobodies before being plugged into Belichick's offense.  Lo and behold, Hogan's 70+ yard touchdown catch sunk the Ravens' comeback attempt, and he caught two touchdowns to embarrass an unquestionably confident Steelers team.

     The Patriots defense allowed fewer points per game than any defense in the 2016 season and the 2017 post-season.  The fact that it was able to hold the vaunted Steelers offense to a mere 16 points should be a strong indication of exactly how effective New England is at stopping elite receiving weapons such as Antonio Brown.  One could point to the Patriots home field advantage as a big reason for their defensive success, but the Patriots actually allowed an almost identical average points per game on the road (15.75) to points allowed at home (15.5).  This indicates that the Patriots defense travels extremely well.  How well does the Patriots offense perform on the road though?  Well it would be a mistake to factor in games including a healthy Rob Gronkowski or games without Tom Brady, so our sample size does get a little smaller.  With Tom Brady and without a healthy Gronk, the Patriots averaged 25.75 points per game.  The Patriots, therefore, had exactly a 10 points scored to points allowed differential in relevant road games during the regular season.

     The Falcons, as stated before, had the league's most statistically potent offense with an absurdly high average of 33.8 points scored per game.  That average only barely fell to 32.5 in road games.  That average is a tad deceiving, however, as I observed an interesting trend over the Falcons' regular season.  Most of the Falcons' amazing statistical offensive performances on the road came against defenses ranked in the bottom third in the league.  The Panthers ranked 21st in total defense, Buccaneers ranked 23rd, the Raiders ranked 26th, and the Saints ranked 27th.  When pitted against teams with more formidable defenses such as the Broncos, Chiefs, Eagles, and Seahawks (prior to major injuries to Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman) the Falcons scored an average of 22.5 points per game.  The Patriots, on the other hand, put up 30 points on the Ravens, 36 points on the Steelers, and trounced the league's leading defense 27-0 and 34-13.  Even the Jets finished 11th in the league in total defense this season, and the Patriots outscored them 63-20 collectively over the course of two games.

     The Patriots will face a Falcons defense tomorrow that ranked 25th in total defense and 28th in pass defense during the regular season.  I had heard all week how the Falcons have an incredible pass rush, but upon examination of the regular season and post-season sack totals, that simply doesn't appear to be true.  The Falcons ranked in the middle of the league in total team sacks with 34, and that is, surprise-surprise, the exact same number of sacks the Patriots totaled this season.  I heard pundits compare the Falcons defense to that of the 2011 Giants which got after Brady and helped topple New England for a second time in a Super Bowl.  That comparison is nonsensical.  Atlanta has a middle-of-the pack pass rush with a pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the league; that's not exactly a matchup nightmare for Brady.

     There's no question that the Falcon's offense is potent, but it's not battle tested like that of the Patriots.  The Patriots have already shown that they can put up monster point totals on top ranked defense, and they've shown their ability to stifle some serious offensive weapons.  The Falcons have shown the ability to pad their stats in a division with horrendous defense, but then they lose to the likes of the Eagles, Chiefs, Seahawks, Chargers, and Buccaneers.  I'd rank both Patriots and Falcons offenses about even at this point in the season given what the Patriots have shown as of late with extended rest, but the Falcons defense is SIGNIFICANTLY worse than that of the Patriots.  Many people became incredibly enamored with the Broncos' record-setting offense in 2013 and picked them to beat the Seahawks (I was one of them).  I learned my lesson, however, and never again overvalued a team with gaudy offensive statistics going up against a superior defense in the Super Bowl. 

PREDICTION:
     The Patriots held the Steelers' vaunted offense to 16 points two weeks ago.  There's no reason to believe they're not up to the challenge of holding the Falcons under 30 points.  The Patriots offense, however, won't struggle to put up points on one of the worst pass defenses they will have faced all season.  With two weeks to study Atlanta and get healthy, the Patriots should be able to force enough punts and field goals while finding the endzone enough times to give Brady a record 5 Super Bowl titles. 
PATRIOTS 34-27

THIS POST IS DEDICATED TO A DEAR FRIEND, JASON FARIAS, WHO PASSED IN LATE 2016.  HE WAS A MASSACHUSETTS NATIVE AND A PHENOMENAL FOOTBALL COACH AND OFFENSIVE MIND.  PURPLE NIGHTMARE READERS MAY RECALL JASON GUEST-POSTING "A PATRIOTS PERSPECTIVE" ARTICLES IN YEARS PAST TO OFFER A FRESH VIEWPOINT FROM BEHIND ENEMY LINES.  HE IS AND WILL BE SORELY MISSED, BUT I HAVE A FEELING SOMEWHERE HE'LL BE QUITE PLEASED WITH THE OUTCOME OF THIS GAME.  THIS ONE'S FOR YOU, JASON.  REST EASY, BROTHER.

STAY TUNED LATER THIS MONTH FOR HIGHLIGHTS AND ANALYSIS OF THE NFL COMBINE.  BECAUSE OF TALENT AND DEPTH AT THE CORNERBACK POSITION, THIS COULD VERY WELL BE THE MOST CRITICAL DRAFT IN RECENT RAVENS HISTORY.

NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!