I truly wish I hadn't gone 14-2 in my final regular season predictions on Sunday. I tried to suspend my Purple and Black bias a lot more this season, and as a result, I had to go with my brain and not my heart when predicting that the Ravens would lose 28-17. Well they didn't lose 28-17...they lost 34-17 after being tied at 17 in the 3rd quarter. Keeping the game close through 3 quarters didn't matter in the end, however, as the same problems that plagued the Ravens for almost the entire season were once again evident in Cincinnati. The Ravens never established a legitimate running attack, Joe Flacco sustained a handful of brutal hits as the result of poor pass protection, and the Ravens once again stalled in almost all of their trips to the redzone and were forced to settle for field goals. It didn't matter that the defense picked off Andy Dalton 4 times, and it didn't matter that A.J. Green was once again held well under 100 yards receiving. The Ravens simply didn't possess an offensive recipe for success this season.
In all likelihood, the Ravens would not have gone far in the playoffs even if they somehow found a way to take the lead late in the game and hold on to beat a dangerous Bengals team. The problems the Ravens frequently encountered would still be present the following week, and they may very well have actually been compounded. Consider, for a moment, a scenario where the Ravens defensive backs picked off Andy Dalton one or two more times and taken at least one of those interceptions back for a touchdown late in the game. The Ravens could have gone on to win the contest, but Flacco would have emerged even more battered and injured than he was at kickoff. Then consider that the Bengals would have likely hosted the Ravens the next week, and the Ravens would have had to face the Bengals with a more complete roster. If you recall, the Bengals played the Ravens without their two starting tight ends and one of their starting cornerbacks. Even if the Ravens would have somehow won the game, they would have had to face a Bengals receiving corps stacked with even more weapons.
The Ravens did NOT beat the Bengals, and now Baltimore has some tough personnel decisions in front of them if they wish to return to the post-season in 2014. The first decision is a no-brainer: fire and replace Juan Castillo. I would hope that this move wouldn't require much explanation at this point as the Ravens rushing attack reached historic lows in 2013 and Ray Rice turned from the NFL's best all-purpose weapon of the previous 4 seasons into one of the most disappointing players of the year. One could point to Rice's nagging hip injury as a reason for his struggles, but Bernard Pierce had no such injury and found little success himself. The Ravens could consider giving the job BACK to the man who held it before Castillo as that man was never actually fired. Andy Moeller was demoted from offensive line coach to assistant offensive line coach after the Ravens hired Castillo to be the "run game coordinator" and then ultimately offensive line coach for the 2013 season. Despite Moeller's brush with the law, he was simply better at his job than Castillo, and if the Ravens don't want to give him a second chance, they need to find someone equally or more qualified to restore the Ravens offensive line and running game to their respective old, dominant forms.
The next major decision the Ravens must make is how to allocate their salary cap money. This is far more complicated than simply one decision, but the Ravens front office should begin their evaluation of their roster from top of the earner's list. Despite his highly publicized contract, Joe Flacco actually doesn't have the highest salary cap number on the team for next season; that number actually belongs to Haloti Ngata. If his contract is left as it currently stands, the Haloti Ngata's cap number for 2014 will be 16 million dollars. That is an astronomical number for a player who has struggled to stay healthy for the last 3 seasons and isn't even the best defensive player on the team. I heard a caller on 105.7 The Fan actually pose an interesting idea 4 nights ago. The caller suggested that the Ravens should find a team with a good amount of salary cap space and a high draft pick such as the Raiders. If the Ravens could deal Ngata to a team such as the Raiders for a 1st or high 2nd round draft pick, they would have more than enough room to give Arthur Jones a well-deserved long term contract and still have at least 10 million dollars in extra cap space left over to help accommodate for the moderate rise in the cap number of Joe Flacco as well as players such as Lardarius Webb. The Ravens also need such extra room to offer Dennis Pitta, Eugene Monroe, and Torrey Smith new contracts. The 16 million dollars from a Haloti Ngata trade/salary dump wouldn't take care of the contracts for ALL of these players, but it would certainly take care of a massive chunk of the Ravens' financial issues.
So thus far we've covered coaching changes and player contract issues, but there's another major issue that only became more apparent in the Bengals game on Sunday. The Ravens no longer have a legitimate free safety. Matt Elam and James Ihedigbo performed reasonably well this season, but both players are ideally suited to play strong safety. For over a decade, the Ravens had history's greatest free safety patrolling the secondary, and that meant seldom seeing the birds of Baltimore get torched by deep passes over the middle of the field. A.J. Green did exactly that against Matt Elam on a play that made the rookie look like he decided to take a nap while one of the NFL's best receivers glided effortlessly past him for a wide-open touchdown grab. James Ihedigbo actually impressed me quite a bit this season, but he's also due for another contract, and there's a good chance he finds one elsewhere based on his experience level and strong performance as a starter in 2013. This means the Ravens may have to turn to the draft to find the ACTUAL replacement for Ed Reed. That's a lot easier said than done, because again, Ed Reed was history's greatest free safety. The Ravens, nevertheless, will have to find serious talent at the position or simply get Lardarius Webb to bulk up 15-20 pounds and switch positions.
The Ravens will also have to turn to the draft to find a replacement for Michael Oher. Oher is unquestionably gone next season as he was the NFL's most penalized player as of the Thanksgiving night game this season. The Ravens could either replace Oher with a talented and hopefully more disciplined right tackle in the draft, or they could elect to slide Kelechi Osemele to right tackle and draft another left guard. However they elect to repair and bolster the offensive line, the Ravens will need to utilize the draft to do so since they can't afford to give long term contracts to both Michael Oher AND Eugene Monroe. The Ravens also need to decide what to do at the center position. Gino Gradkowski simply isn't strong or talented enough to be the leader of the offensive line. It's possible that he could work extremely hard and come back bigger, strong, and wiser next season, but I wouldn't count on it. It should come as no surprise to Ravens fans if Ozzie Newsome and Eric Decosta decide to use their first or second round pick on a center.
There are probably dozens of contract decisions we could continue to go over and dozens more that we probably aren't even aware of which the Ravens front office will find themselves faced with over the course of the next few months. Hopefully this season serves as a wake-up call to Harbaugh and Ozzie. They attempted to avoid a Super Bowl hangover by taking a polar opposite strategy of that used after the Ravens won their first Super Bowl. In 2001, the Ravens organization tried whatever they could to restructure salaries to keep their Super Bowl team from the year before together. That strategy failed as the centerpiece of that team's offense, Jamaal Lewis, suffered a season-ending injury before the beginning of the regular season and the Ravens ended up being bounced from the playoffs by the Steelers.
In 2013, the Ravens front office decided to turn over the Ravens roster to an extreme degree as they got rid of players that most fans and analysts believed had earned their spots on the team. Sure, Paul Kruger and Dannell Ellerbe became too expensive for the Ravens to keep, but Anquan Boldin performed too well once he was finally put in the slot last season and the Ravens learned how to correctly use him. The decision to let Ed Reed go proved a good one off the bat as the Texans paid him entirely too much money when he clearly hadn't yet recovered from his off-season hip surgery. After he was cut, however, Ed Reed could have been a valuable asset to the Ravens considering their issues at the free safety position. Case in point: Ed Reed had 3 interceptions in his 6 games with the Jets this season. We can only wonder what he could have done for the Ravens if brought back into the defensive back the rotation down the stretch--but now we'll never know.
This isn't a time to second guess the Ravens decisions, but to simply evaluate them, learn from them, and move on. I'm actually quite excited about a number of things for the Ravens in 2014. Marlon Brown is going to be a touchdown machine, and the Ravens can finally see what Aaron Mellette and Matt Furstenburg can do for receiving depth. The Ravens also will finally have a good draft spot as this will be the first season in over half a decade where they won't pick near the end of the draft order. Jimmy Smith will likely continue to develop into a Pro Bowl cornerback if he stays healthy next season, and Lardarius Webb will hopefully continue his return to his shut-down form from prior to his most recent knee injury. Hopefully the Ravens will be able to re-sign Dennis Pitta, and he'll have a breakout season with a healthy Flacco and a revamped offensive line. Last, but certainly not least, Ray Rice will hopefully take his rehab and training seriously and return to his old form for at least another season or two. Missing the playoffs is painful, but that seems to be the price that every Super Bowl Champion pays nowadays. Maybe we were all spoiled with a spectacular storybook ending to Ray Lewis' career, and maybe their luck from early 2013 simply ran out in the last couple of weeks. They won't repeat as Super Bowl Champions, but that doesn't mean they won't be back soon...
THE RAVENS 2013 SEASON IS OVER, BUT RAVENS NATION STANDS AS PROUD AS EVER OF THEIR CITY AND THEIR TEAM. THE RAVENS WILL BE BACK IN A BIG WAY IN 2014. UNTIL THEN, WE AS FOOTBALL FANS CAN SIT BACK AND ENJOY THE PLAYOFFS.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS...DRAFT SOME LINEMEN!
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Saturday, December 28, 2013
THE RAVENS' LAST STAND AND WEEK 17 NFL PREDICTIONS
Okay, so last week's game against the Patriots did not go as many expected. It turns out that Joe Flacco's knee was more of a limiting factor than I and most of the rest of the world assumed. The Patriots also proved a far more dominant foe even without Rob Gronkowski than anyone in the Ravens organization could have predicted. I usually give the Patriots adequate credit, but it appears as though I didn't give them nearly enough of it prior to Week 16's beatdown in Baltimore. It's certainly no secret at this point that the Ravens' most recent home loss took the Ravens out of the driver's seat for the final playoff spot. Now they have to hope and pray for a Dolphins or Chargers loss while finding a way to win on the road in a stadium in which no team other than the Bengals has won this season. The odds are against the Ravens, but there seem to be few years where that is NOT the case at one point or another.
The Ravens usually relish the chance to win against all odds. They seem to thrive on being thought of as an underdog because of their tendency to win football games in a fashion not popular amongst most NFL fans. Baltimore has had a history of being a hard-nosed defensive team with a power running game and a steadfast fieldgoal kicker. Most of those things are true for this year with the exception of one. The Ravens have never found a rhythm running the football this season. Their offensive line's inability to open up running lanes is mostly to blame, but Ray Rice's nagging injuries have unquestionably played a significant role. The lack of a power running game has meant an inability to punch the ball into the endzone or simply convert 3rd or 4th downs in short yardage situations. A lack of a running game has meant little balance in the Ravens offense and has allowed opposing teams to turn the Ravens into a one-dimensional opponent that has difficulty consistently sustaining drives and scoring touchdowns.
It's not as though the Ravens haven't done well recently. Before last weekend they had won 5 out of their last 6 games. If they manage to win on Sunday they will have won 6 out of their last 8 games of the season. That would be fantastic considering that Baltimore only won 3 of their first 8 games. Finishing with 9 wins may simply not be enough to get the Ravens into the playoffs because of strange tie-breaking rules when there is a three-way tie at the end of the regular season. The Ravens, for example, have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins because of their Week 5 road win in Miami. The Ravens also hold a tiebreaker over the Chargers as the Ravens have more conference wins than Phillip Rivers and company. Because all three teams have the same record at 8-7, however, the Ravens' head-to-head win over the Dolphins no longer applies as the team with the most conference wins automatically gets the final wildcard spot in the event of a three-way tie. It sucks...I know, but rules are rules, and it doesn't mean the Ravens can't still get into the playoffs.
The Ravens' first priority is beating a Bengals team that hasn't lost at home this season, but will be without a significant number of starters this weekend. The Bengals haven't had star defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, or star cornerback, Leon Hall, for many weeks now. The Bengals have, nevertheless, continued to win games. Cincinnati, however, will also likely be without yet another starting cornerback since Terrance Newman won't suit up this weekend. Cincinnati took another hit to their defensive line depth as second string defensive tackle, Devon Still, has been ruled out with a back injury. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bengals will be without their young and talented tight end, Tyler Eifert. What has yet to be seen is if their other tight end, Jermaine Gresham, actually sees significant playing time on Sunday. Gresham is listed as questionable after practicing on a limited basis earlier in the week, but he didn't practice on Thursday or Friday and could be sidelined with a hamstring injury that may be more serious than originally assumed. If Gresham does, in fact, NOT play on Sunday then the Bengals will have only one healthy tight end left on their depth chart, 3rd stringer Alex Smith.
There's no question that the Bengals are banged up. The biggest question is whether or not the Bengals' lack of healthy defensive lineman, healthy cornerbacks, and healthy tight ends will be as significant as the injuries with which the Ravens are currently dealing. Joe Flacco's sprained MCL clearly affected his confidence, mobility, and accuracy last Sunday. Will Joe's knee be any better this weekend? It's tough to say until he takes the field. Flacco isn't the only injured starter on the Ravens offense. Ray Rice has dealt with a quadriceps injury all week, and Torrey Smith has had hamstring issues since the Patriots game. Possibly more significant than Rice's or Smith's injuries is Gino Gradkowski's knee injury. Gradkowski hasn't been anywhere as good as his predecessor, Matt Birk, but he is the best center the Ravens have at the moment, and he'd need to be replaced by the Ravens current starting left guard, A.Q. Shipley. The major problem with shifting A.Q. Shipley to center isn't that A.Q. Shipley would be at the center position. The REAL problem is that Jah "the human turnstyle" Reid would be brought in to take Shipley's place at left guard. Ravens fans must PRAY that this scenario is avoided as it would mean a long day for an already beaten and battered Joe Flacco.
I won't pretend to be confident about the Ravens chances of winning this weekend. They have just as many injury issues as the Bengals (if not more), and they can't run the ball well even with a totally healthy squad. The Bengals simply put up too many point at home this season, and that may be more than the Ravens can keep up with considering their own lack of offensive firepower. Even if the Ravens find a rhythm in the passing game because of thin Bengals cornerback depth and somehow pull out a win, the Ravens still need to count on a Jets team that hasn't won a road game since beating the lowly Falcons in Week 5. The Chargers will likely be playing a Chiefs team with a significant number of starters on the bench resting for the playoffs, so the Ravens can't count on a Chargers loss. The two things that give me the most hope that the Ravens will make the playoffs are the fact that the Ravens held the Bengals to 10 points for almost an entire 4 quarters earlier this season and the fact that the Dolphins looked horrendous last week. How the Dolphins fared on the road against the Bills may not matter, however, as the Dolphins beat the Jets down hard in New Jersey only 4 weeks ago. Maybe the Jets defensive line will find a way to limit the Dolphins ground attack and force Tannehill into bad throws. Maybe one or two of those throws will find their way into the hands of a Jets defensive back, and maybe--just maybe--those hands will belong to Ed Reed.
WEEK 17 NFL PREDICTIONS
JAGUARS AT COLTS- The Colts have beat most of the most dominant teams in the league this year, but have lost some surprising games against mediocre and bad teams. This trend may bode well for the playoffs, but it may mean trouble against a Jaguars team that has seen far more success in the second half of the season. I have faith, however, that the Colts will be motivated and effective enough at home to beat the Jaguars in an effort to secure the 3 seed in the playoffs. If the Ravens get into the postseason, they'll likely travel to Indy to face the Colts in the first round for the second time in a row. COLTS 31-20.
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons looked as though they were about to beat the 49ers last week until Matt Ryan forced a throw that ended up being picked off by Navarro Bowman and taken back for a game-sealing touchdown. That was still an impressive effort for a Falcons team with almost no wins this season, but they're simply not good enough to beat the Panthers even at home. PANTHERS 23-21.
RAVENS AT BENGALS- I simply can't predict a Ravens victory in Cincy this weekend with an injured Joe Flacco. If Joe can't muster more than 7 points against the Patriots defense at home in Baltimore, I have no idea how he'll be able to score enough against a Bengals defense in Cincinnati to outscore a Bengals offense that has put up 41 or more points per game at home in their last 4 home contests...it's simply a losing equation. I haven't lost hope, but a win simply doesn't appear likely if we're looking at this from an objective standpoint. BENGALS 28-17.
JETS AT DOLPHINS- I also haven't lost hope that the Jets could pull an upset in Miami and at least edge the Dolphins in a season-ending divisional showdown, but Jet simply don't play well enough on the road to give me much confidence going into Sunday. DOLPHINS 33-24.
TEXANS AT TITANS- I won't pretend to care about this game, but the Titans are simply better than the Texans this season and will beat them at home. TITANS 20-17.
LIONS AT VIKINGS- I thought the Vikings were much improved after they almost beat the Ravens and smashed the Eagles, but the Bengals took them back down to earth. The Lions, however, could be without Calvin Johnson, and even if he plays, I can't imagine Megatron will be at full strength. VIKINGS 27-23.
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- GIANTS 30-28.
BROWNS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 27-16.
PACKERS AT BEARS- Aaron Rodgers is back...and he's VERY good at football. PACKERS 28-20.
BRONCOS AT RAIDERS- BRONCOS 35-21.
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- The Bills have the pass rush and running attack to keep this game close, but the Patriots are too good at home to lose this game when the 2nd playoff seed is on the line. PATRIOTS 30-23.
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- I don't like the Saints in the post-season, but they're too good to lose at home to the Bucs. SAINTS 26-17.
49ERS AT CARDINALS- The 49ers just clinched a playoff spot and the Cardinals need to win in order to keep hopes of the playoffs alive. If the Cardinals somehow miss the playoffs, they'll be by far the best team not to have made it. CARDINALS 20-17.
CHIEFS AT CHARGERS- The Chiefs will be sitting enough starters for me to feel hopeless that they can win in San Diego on Sunday. CHARGERS 27-17.
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- These teams played a painfully close game last time they met, but this time will be in Seattle. SEAHAWKS 21-13.
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- No Romo? No playoffs for the Cowboys. Romo isn't elite, but the's the best that the Cowboys have, and his absence is going to render this team mostly useless. EAGLES 42-21.
KEEP THE FAITH FOR ONE MORE DAY, BALTIMORE MIRACLES DO HAPPEN
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Ravens usually relish the chance to win against all odds. They seem to thrive on being thought of as an underdog because of their tendency to win football games in a fashion not popular amongst most NFL fans. Baltimore has had a history of being a hard-nosed defensive team with a power running game and a steadfast fieldgoal kicker. Most of those things are true for this year with the exception of one. The Ravens have never found a rhythm running the football this season. Their offensive line's inability to open up running lanes is mostly to blame, but Ray Rice's nagging injuries have unquestionably played a significant role. The lack of a power running game has meant an inability to punch the ball into the endzone or simply convert 3rd or 4th downs in short yardage situations. A lack of a running game has meant little balance in the Ravens offense and has allowed opposing teams to turn the Ravens into a one-dimensional opponent that has difficulty consistently sustaining drives and scoring touchdowns.
It's not as though the Ravens haven't done well recently. Before last weekend they had won 5 out of their last 6 games. If they manage to win on Sunday they will have won 6 out of their last 8 games of the season. That would be fantastic considering that Baltimore only won 3 of their first 8 games. Finishing with 9 wins may simply not be enough to get the Ravens into the playoffs because of strange tie-breaking rules when there is a three-way tie at the end of the regular season. The Ravens, for example, have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins because of their Week 5 road win in Miami. The Ravens also hold a tiebreaker over the Chargers as the Ravens have more conference wins than Phillip Rivers and company. Because all three teams have the same record at 8-7, however, the Ravens' head-to-head win over the Dolphins no longer applies as the team with the most conference wins automatically gets the final wildcard spot in the event of a three-way tie. It sucks...I know, but rules are rules, and it doesn't mean the Ravens can't still get into the playoffs.
The Ravens' first priority is beating a Bengals team that hasn't lost at home this season, but will be without a significant number of starters this weekend. The Bengals haven't had star defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, or star cornerback, Leon Hall, for many weeks now. The Bengals have, nevertheless, continued to win games. Cincinnati, however, will also likely be without yet another starting cornerback since Terrance Newman won't suit up this weekend. Cincinnati took another hit to their defensive line depth as second string defensive tackle, Devon Still, has been ruled out with a back injury. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bengals will be without their young and talented tight end, Tyler Eifert. What has yet to be seen is if their other tight end, Jermaine Gresham, actually sees significant playing time on Sunday. Gresham is listed as questionable after practicing on a limited basis earlier in the week, but he didn't practice on Thursday or Friday and could be sidelined with a hamstring injury that may be more serious than originally assumed. If Gresham does, in fact, NOT play on Sunday then the Bengals will have only one healthy tight end left on their depth chart, 3rd stringer Alex Smith.
There's no question that the Bengals are banged up. The biggest question is whether or not the Bengals' lack of healthy defensive lineman, healthy cornerbacks, and healthy tight ends will be as significant as the injuries with which the Ravens are currently dealing. Joe Flacco's sprained MCL clearly affected his confidence, mobility, and accuracy last Sunday. Will Joe's knee be any better this weekend? It's tough to say until he takes the field. Flacco isn't the only injured starter on the Ravens offense. Ray Rice has dealt with a quadriceps injury all week, and Torrey Smith has had hamstring issues since the Patriots game. Possibly more significant than Rice's or Smith's injuries is Gino Gradkowski's knee injury. Gradkowski hasn't been anywhere as good as his predecessor, Matt Birk, but he is the best center the Ravens have at the moment, and he'd need to be replaced by the Ravens current starting left guard, A.Q. Shipley. The major problem with shifting A.Q. Shipley to center isn't that A.Q. Shipley would be at the center position. The REAL problem is that Jah "the human turnstyle" Reid would be brought in to take Shipley's place at left guard. Ravens fans must PRAY that this scenario is avoided as it would mean a long day for an already beaten and battered Joe Flacco.
I won't pretend to be confident about the Ravens chances of winning this weekend. They have just as many injury issues as the Bengals (if not more), and they can't run the ball well even with a totally healthy squad. The Bengals simply put up too many point at home this season, and that may be more than the Ravens can keep up with considering their own lack of offensive firepower. Even if the Ravens find a rhythm in the passing game because of thin Bengals cornerback depth and somehow pull out a win, the Ravens still need to count on a Jets team that hasn't won a road game since beating the lowly Falcons in Week 5. The Chargers will likely be playing a Chiefs team with a significant number of starters on the bench resting for the playoffs, so the Ravens can't count on a Chargers loss. The two things that give me the most hope that the Ravens will make the playoffs are the fact that the Ravens held the Bengals to 10 points for almost an entire 4 quarters earlier this season and the fact that the Dolphins looked horrendous last week. How the Dolphins fared on the road against the Bills may not matter, however, as the Dolphins beat the Jets down hard in New Jersey only 4 weeks ago. Maybe the Jets defensive line will find a way to limit the Dolphins ground attack and force Tannehill into bad throws. Maybe one or two of those throws will find their way into the hands of a Jets defensive back, and maybe--just maybe--those hands will belong to Ed Reed.
WEEK 17 NFL PREDICTIONS
JAGUARS AT COLTS- The Colts have beat most of the most dominant teams in the league this year, but have lost some surprising games against mediocre and bad teams. This trend may bode well for the playoffs, but it may mean trouble against a Jaguars team that has seen far more success in the second half of the season. I have faith, however, that the Colts will be motivated and effective enough at home to beat the Jaguars in an effort to secure the 3 seed in the playoffs. If the Ravens get into the postseason, they'll likely travel to Indy to face the Colts in the first round for the second time in a row. COLTS 31-20.
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons looked as though they were about to beat the 49ers last week until Matt Ryan forced a throw that ended up being picked off by Navarro Bowman and taken back for a game-sealing touchdown. That was still an impressive effort for a Falcons team with almost no wins this season, but they're simply not good enough to beat the Panthers even at home. PANTHERS 23-21.
RAVENS AT BENGALS- I simply can't predict a Ravens victory in Cincy this weekend with an injured Joe Flacco. If Joe can't muster more than 7 points against the Patriots defense at home in Baltimore, I have no idea how he'll be able to score enough against a Bengals defense in Cincinnati to outscore a Bengals offense that has put up 41 or more points per game at home in their last 4 home contests...it's simply a losing equation. I haven't lost hope, but a win simply doesn't appear likely if we're looking at this from an objective standpoint. BENGALS 28-17.
JETS AT DOLPHINS- I also haven't lost hope that the Jets could pull an upset in Miami and at least edge the Dolphins in a season-ending divisional showdown, but Jet simply don't play well enough on the road to give me much confidence going into Sunday. DOLPHINS 33-24.
TEXANS AT TITANS- I won't pretend to care about this game, but the Titans are simply better than the Texans this season and will beat them at home. TITANS 20-17.
LIONS AT VIKINGS- I thought the Vikings were much improved after they almost beat the Ravens and smashed the Eagles, but the Bengals took them back down to earth. The Lions, however, could be without Calvin Johnson, and even if he plays, I can't imagine Megatron will be at full strength. VIKINGS 27-23.
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- GIANTS 30-28.
BROWNS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 27-16.
PACKERS AT BEARS- Aaron Rodgers is back...and he's VERY good at football. PACKERS 28-20.
BRONCOS AT RAIDERS- BRONCOS 35-21.
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- The Bills have the pass rush and running attack to keep this game close, but the Patriots are too good at home to lose this game when the 2nd playoff seed is on the line. PATRIOTS 30-23.
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- I don't like the Saints in the post-season, but they're too good to lose at home to the Bucs. SAINTS 26-17.
49ERS AT CARDINALS- The 49ers just clinched a playoff spot and the Cardinals need to win in order to keep hopes of the playoffs alive. If the Cardinals somehow miss the playoffs, they'll be by far the best team not to have made it. CARDINALS 20-17.
CHIEFS AT CHARGERS- The Chiefs will be sitting enough starters for me to feel hopeless that they can win in San Diego on Sunday. CHARGERS 27-17.
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- These teams played a painfully close game last time they met, but this time will be in Seattle. SEAHAWKS 21-13.
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- No Romo? No playoffs for the Cowboys. Romo isn't elite, but the's the best that the Cowboys have, and his absence is going to render this team mostly useless. EAGLES 42-21.
KEEP THE FAITH FOR ONE MORE DAY, BALTIMORE MIRACLES DO HAPPEN
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Friday, December 20, 2013
WEEK 16 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Ravens have a chance to give a wonderful Christmas present to their fanbase on Sunday. The Patriots are riddled with injuries to key starters including their most integral offensive weapon aside of Brady himself, Rob Gronkowski. The Ravens, meanwhile, are much healthier overall and received a boost in their own receiving personnel with the recent return of Dennis Pitta. Baltimore has also seen a return to health for Haloti Ngata and Marshal Yanda, both of whom put on big physical displays of strength on Monday night against the Lions. Even Ray Rice finally got back into his groove with a 4.7 yards per carry performance against the 3rd ranked run defense in the league. It's as though everything is falling into place for the Ravens just at the right time. Well, almost everything.
Joe Flacco will likely wear a knee brace on his left leg this Sunday after having taken a rather brutal helmet to the side of his knee against the Lions. I would like to say this won't affect #5 much, but his mobility has actually been one of his strong points this season. Joe has been able to extend plays with his legs, and that has been vitally important in a season that has seen uneven pass protection for the Super Bowl MVP. Fortunately for Joe, the Ravens offensive line has come together as of late in the pass protection department. Run blocking still isn't consistently effective, but it's good enough to have allowed Ray Rice to have back to back games with 50+ rushing yards. I know that doesn't seem particularly impressive, but for this season it's the first time that has happened.
The Patriots rank 31st in the league in run defense with Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo out for the rest of the season. That isn't just great news for Ray Rice; it's also great news for Joe Flacco. A successful day of running the football against the Patriots will help to take pressure off of Joe Flacco and allow him to sit in the pocket more easily to make throws. The Ravens offensive line stood up well to some impressive defensive lines during their recent 4 game winning streak, and thankfully the Patriots defensive linemen are nowhere near the same caliber without Wilfork in the middle. This should allow the Ravens to control the clock when they need to, and maybe we'll even see them run the ball successfully in the redzone with Vonta Leach as a lead blocker in goal line situations (haven't seen much of Leach lately).
The Ravens offense should have success against a lackluster Patriots defense at home on Sunday. The Patriots offense, however, is going to have its hands full. The Ravens defense has gone up against a host of the best wide receivers in the game this season and hasn't allowed a single one to have a dominant game. The Ravens secondary limited Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and DeAndre Hopkins to under 100 yards receiving for each. It's not that Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola aren't talented receivers, it's just that neither one is a mismatch in size or speed for the Ravens defensive backs. In other words, if Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, and A.J. Green don't have phenomenal success against the Ravens, don't expect the Edelman and Amendola to have a big day.
If the Patriots think they'll be able to run the ball to make up for the absence of Gronkowski, they should think again. I'm sure they'll have at least SOME success running the ball at times, but the Ravens have the 7th ranked run defense in the league, and it should be a good match for the Patriots 12th ranked rushing attack. Part of what made the Patriots running game click earlier this season was the blocking of Rob Gronkowski. In Gronk's absence, expect the Patriots to lean more on their short passing game as both Edelman and Amendola have elite stats when it comes to yards after the catch this season. Brady will definitely utilize his lightning-quick release to get the ball into the hands of those two play-makers. The big question is whether or not Edelman and Amendola will be able to get much yardage while being covered by Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith.
One of the biggest factors that should make Tom Brady's day long and frustrating is the pressure he'll see from the Ravens pass rushers. Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil will undoubtedly harass Brady from the edges, but as I mentioned before, Haloti Ngata has appeared particularly dominant recently. The Ravens defensive line rotation has enough disruptive force to collapse the pocket on a regular enough basis to keep Brady from making solid down-field throws. The Patriots left tackle, Nate Solder, returned to practice yesterday, but don't expect him to have an easy time against the 2011 defensive player of the year.
Nothing I've said here should be shocking or surprising to most reading it. The Patriots are hurt badly, and the Ravens are a team hitting its stride and playing at home this week. Most people are predicting a close game. I am not one of those people. The Ravens stomped a more impressive Patriots team last postseason in Foxborough without Gronkowski, and that was WITH Wilfork, Aaron Hernandez, and Jerod Mayo. The Patriots offense is simply not good enough to put more than 20-21 points on the Ravens in Baltimore, and the Patriots defense is too depleted to hold the Ravens under 20 points in Baltimore. It's the NFL, so anything can happen and nothing is guaranteed, but this should be a solid win for the Ravens and a merry Christmas for the people of Baltimore.
WEEK 16 NFL PREDICTIONS
COLTS AT CHIEFS- The Colts have already clinched their division, but they also want desperately to get a higher seed in the playoffs to get a bye week and homefield advantage. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are quite strong at home, and will be playing their hearts out in hopes that the Broncos suffer one final unlikely defeat in Houston with Wes Welker out for the next two weeks. A motivated Chiefs team at home is far better than an unconvincing Colts team on the road that has already clinched its division. Oh yeah, and Jamaal Charles is a beast. CHIEFS 33-21.
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- The Bills won the first matchup between these two teams, but Tannehill's protection has increased dramatically since that first meeting. The Bills should still be able to have a good day running the ball and will be able to get pressure on the Dolphins QB at times, but the Dolphins are playing too well (even in the cold) recently to lose this game. DOLPHINS 27-20.
VIKINGS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are leading their division and appeared to have the AFC North locked up until recently. The Vikings, on the other hand, are not playing for a playoff berth, but Matt Cassel has been remarkably impressive since taking over the starting QB spot. The Vikings blasted the Eagles last week, and they did so without Adrian Peterson or Toby Gerhart. Could it be that this team has finally found its rhythm? I think so. The Bengals are beat up in their secondary and won't match up well against impressive Vikings receivers. This should be a high scoring game. VIKINGS 38-36.
BUCCANEERS AT RAMS- This game doesn't really mean much, but both of these teams have looked impressive towards the end of this season. Going with the home team on this one. RAMS 21-17.
BROWNS AT JETS- The Browns haven't had a great season because of a revolving door of quarterbacks. They did, however, almost beat the patriots two weeks ago, and they have talent all over the field. The Jets have been incredibly inconsistent, also because of quarterback issues, and struggle against teams with elite defenses and the Browns possess one. BROWNS 28-16.
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins have little motivation other than pride to win this game while the Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives. COWBOYS 35-21.
SAINTS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers are much better at home than the Saints are on the road. Not much to this one. PANTHERS 30-19.
TITANS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have played well recently. I think they'll win this one at home. JAGUARS 20-17.
BRONCOS AT TEXANS- I would be thrilled if the Texans somehow pulled an upset here, but this is one of the worst teams in the league against one of the best. Peyton Manning will play well in a warm environment, no questions asked. BRONCOS 42-23.
GIANTS AT LIONS- LIONS 31-14.
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS- The Cardinals have had a nice season, but they're not nearly good enough to be the first team to win in Seattle...I don't know if any team is good enough for that. SEAHAWKS 30-20.
STEELERS AT PACKERS- The Steelers are clinging an incredibly small amount of hope that the Ravens and Dolphins and Chargers will all lose out so that Roethlisberger and company get to the playoffs. The only problem is that the Dolphins will already have won or lost to the Bills by the time the Steelers take the field. If the Dolphins have won by that point, the Steelers have no shot at the playoffs, and it would behoove them to sit their starters...unless they just want to play for pride or something silly like that. This is tough because I believe the Dolphins WILL win, but the Packers won't be playing with Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers are better than the Packers without Rodgers and maybe they'll relish the chance to play spoiler to the team that beat them in the Super Bowl 3 seasons ago. STEELERS 28-21.
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- CHARGERS 33-17.
PATRIOTS AT RAVENS- The Patriots can't win this game with the defense and receiving weapons they have currently at their disposal. The Ravens are nearly unbeatable at home, and they are a healthier, more complete team now than in the first half of this season. Aqip Talib is a great corner, but the Ravens have too many receiving weapons for that to matter all that much. I expect a big day from Bernard Pierce. RAVENS 27-17.
BEARS AT EAGLES- This is an interesting matchup because it features two impressive offenses with little defense to speak of on either team. I don't know if there's necessarily a statistical reason to back this up, but I've been more impressed with the Bears this season. With that said, the Bears haven't been great on the road. I'm going with the home team in a shootout. EAGLES 33-28.
FALCONS AT 49ERS- I bet when the NFL originally scheduled this game for a Monday night they assumed it would be a showdown between to NFC powerhouses. HA. 49ERS 35-20.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Joe Flacco will likely wear a knee brace on his left leg this Sunday after having taken a rather brutal helmet to the side of his knee against the Lions. I would like to say this won't affect #5 much, but his mobility has actually been one of his strong points this season. Joe has been able to extend plays with his legs, and that has been vitally important in a season that has seen uneven pass protection for the Super Bowl MVP. Fortunately for Joe, the Ravens offensive line has come together as of late in the pass protection department. Run blocking still isn't consistently effective, but it's good enough to have allowed Ray Rice to have back to back games with 50+ rushing yards. I know that doesn't seem particularly impressive, but for this season it's the first time that has happened.
The Patriots rank 31st in the league in run defense with Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo out for the rest of the season. That isn't just great news for Ray Rice; it's also great news for Joe Flacco. A successful day of running the football against the Patriots will help to take pressure off of Joe Flacco and allow him to sit in the pocket more easily to make throws. The Ravens offensive line stood up well to some impressive defensive lines during their recent 4 game winning streak, and thankfully the Patriots defensive linemen are nowhere near the same caliber without Wilfork in the middle. This should allow the Ravens to control the clock when they need to, and maybe we'll even see them run the ball successfully in the redzone with Vonta Leach as a lead blocker in goal line situations (haven't seen much of Leach lately).
The Ravens offense should have success against a lackluster Patriots defense at home on Sunday. The Patriots offense, however, is going to have its hands full. The Ravens defense has gone up against a host of the best wide receivers in the game this season and hasn't allowed a single one to have a dominant game. The Ravens secondary limited Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and DeAndre Hopkins to under 100 yards receiving for each. It's not that Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola aren't talented receivers, it's just that neither one is a mismatch in size or speed for the Ravens defensive backs. In other words, if Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, and A.J. Green don't have phenomenal success against the Ravens, don't expect the Edelman and Amendola to have a big day.
If the Patriots think they'll be able to run the ball to make up for the absence of Gronkowski, they should think again. I'm sure they'll have at least SOME success running the ball at times, but the Ravens have the 7th ranked run defense in the league, and it should be a good match for the Patriots 12th ranked rushing attack. Part of what made the Patriots running game click earlier this season was the blocking of Rob Gronkowski. In Gronk's absence, expect the Patriots to lean more on their short passing game as both Edelman and Amendola have elite stats when it comes to yards after the catch this season. Brady will definitely utilize his lightning-quick release to get the ball into the hands of those two play-makers. The big question is whether or not Edelman and Amendola will be able to get much yardage while being covered by Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith.
One of the biggest factors that should make Tom Brady's day long and frustrating is the pressure he'll see from the Ravens pass rushers. Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil will undoubtedly harass Brady from the edges, but as I mentioned before, Haloti Ngata has appeared particularly dominant recently. The Ravens defensive line rotation has enough disruptive force to collapse the pocket on a regular enough basis to keep Brady from making solid down-field throws. The Patriots left tackle, Nate Solder, returned to practice yesterday, but don't expect him to have an easy time against the 2011 defensive player of the year.
Nothing I've said here should be shocking or surprising to most reading it. The Patriots are hurt badly, and the Ravens are a team hitting its stride and playing at home this week. Most people are predicting a close game. I am not one of those people. The Ravens stomped a more impressive Patriots team last postseason in Foxborough without Gronkowski, and that was WITH Wilfork, Aaron Hernandez, and Jerod Mayo. The Patriots offense is simply not good enough to put more than 20-21 points on the Ravens in Baltimore, and the Patriots defense is too depleted to hold the Ravens under 20 points in Baltimore. It's the NFL, so anything can happen and nothing is guaranteed, but this should be a solid win for the Ravens and a merry Christmas for the people of Baltimore.
WEEK 16 NFL PREDICTIONS
COLTS AT CHIEFS- The Colts have already clinched their division, but they also want desperately to get a higher seed in the playoffs to get a bye week and homefield advantage. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are quite strong at home, and will be playing their hearts out in hopes that the Broncos suffer one final unlikely defeat in Houston with Wes Welker out for the next two weeks. A motivated Chiefs team at home is far better than an unconvincing Colts team on the road that has already clinched its division. Oh yeah, and Jamaal Charles is a beast. CHIEFS 33-21.
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- The Bills won the first matchup between these two teams, but Tannehill's protection has increased dramatically since that first meeting. The Bills should still be able to have a good day running the ball and will be able to get pressure on the Dolphins QB at times, but the Dolphins are playing too well (even in the cold) recently to lose this game. DOLPHINS 27-20.
VIKINGS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are leading their division and appeared to have the AFC North locked up until recently. The Vikings, on the other hand, are not playing for a playoff berth, but Matt Cassel has been remarkably impressive since taking over the starting QB spot. The Vikings blasted the Eagles last week, and they did so without Adrian Peterson or Toby Gerhart. Could it be that this team has finally found its rhythm? I think so. The Bengals are beat up in their secondary and won't match up well against impressive Vikings receivers. This should be a high scoring game. VIKINGS 38-36.
BUCCANEERS AT RAMS- This game doesn't really mean much, but both of these teams have looked impressive towards the end of this season. Going with the home team on this one. RAMS 21-17.
BROWNS AT JETS- The Browns haven't had a great season because of a revolving door of quarterbacks. They did, however, almost beat the patriots two weeks ago, and they have talent all over the field. The Jets have been incredibly inconsistent, also because of quarterback issues, and struggle against teams with elite defenses and the Browns possess one. BROWNS 28-16.
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins have little motivation other than pride to win this game while the Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives. COWBOYS 35-21.
SAINTS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers are much better at home than the Saints are on the road. Not much to this one. PANTHERS 30-19.
TITANS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have played well recently. I think they'll win this one at home. JAGUARS 20-17.
BRONCOS AT TEXANS- I would be thrilled if the Texans somehow pulled an upset here, but this is one of the worst teams in the league against one of the best. Peyton Manning will play well in a warm environment, no questions asked. BRONCOS 42-23.
GIANTS AT LIONS- LIONS 31-14.
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS- The Cardinals have had a nice season, but they're not nearly good enough to be the first team to win in Seattle...I don't know if any team is good enough for that. SEAHAWKS 30-20.
STEELERS AT PACKERS- The Steelers are clinging an incredibly small amount of hope that the Ravens and Dolphins and Chargers will all lose out so that Roethlisberger and company get to the playoffs. The only problem is that the Dolphins will already have won or lost to the Bills by the time the Steelers take the field. If the Dolphins have won by that point, the Steelers have no shot at the playoffs, and it would behoove them to sit their starters...unless they just want to play for pride or something silly like that. This is tough because I believe the Dolphins WILL win, but the Packers won't be playing with Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers are better than the Packers without Rodgers and maybe they'll relish the chance to play spoiler to the team that beat them in the Super Bowl 3 seasons ago. STEELERS 28-21.
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- CHARGERS 33-17.
PATRIOTS AT RAVENS- The Patriots can't win this game with the defense and receiving weapons they have currently at their disposal. The Ravens are nearly unbeatable at home, and they are a healthier, more complete team now than in the first half of this season. Aqip Talib is a great corner, but the Ravens have too many receiving weapons for that to matter all that much. I expect a big day from Bernard Pierce. RAVENS 27-17.
BEARS AT EAGLES- This is an interesting matchup because it features two impressive offenses with little defense to speak of on either team. I don't know if there's necessarily a statistical reason to back this up, but I've been more impressed with the Bears this season. With that said, the Bears haven't been great on the road. I'm going with the home team in a shootout. EAGLES 33-28.
FALCONS AT 49ERS- I bet when the NFL originally scheduled this game for a Monday night they assumed it would be a showdown between to NFC powerhouses. HA. 49ERS 35-20.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
MONDAY NIGHT MADNESS AND A LOOK AHEAD TO THE PATRIOTS
Let's forget for a moment that the Ravens are in a great position to win the AFC North, win a home game in the first round of the playoffs, and possibly even win a 2nd seed if the Patriots lose their next two games (C'MON BILLS!!). Forget that the vast majority of sports analysts picked the Lions to beat the Ravens on Monday night. Focus on the fact that Justin Tucker has kicked 33 straight field goals, the last of which just set a Ravens record for longest kick in franchise history and an NFL record for longest field goal in a dome in history. Justin Tucker is essentially Matt Stover 2.0 in consistency and leg strength. Stover never possessed the strength to boom kickoffs out of the back of the endzone or come anywhere NEAR a successful 61 yard attempt. Not to take anything away from Stover...he is one of the greatest Ravens ever, but Tucker could simply eclipse everything that #3 ever did. Only time will tell, but right now Tucker has the confidence and consistency to be a Pro Bowl kicker. If Justin Tucker DOESN'T in fact go to the Pro Bowl this season, it should only be because he's gearing up for his second straight Super Bowl appearance. Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself, but this kid can kick and he proved it Monday night.
Now let's get right back to all of those things I asked you to forget at the beginning of the last paragraph. The Ravens face two division-leading teams to finish out their season. Those division-leading teams, however, are remarkably vulnerable at this point in the season. The Patriots find themselves particularly slowed by their lack of a dominant, giant tight end. The Bengals find themselves slowed by the loss of a large number of defensive cogs this season including a number of cornerbacks and their best defensive lineman. The Steelers showed the world just how beatable the Bengals are--not that the Ravens didn't already know that after BEATING THEM EARLIER THIS SEASON. The way Matt Cassel has played in the last two weeks, it's entirely possible that the Bengals lose their two remaining games and find themselves out of the playoffs entirely if the Dolphins can win at least one of their two remaining games. Let's stick to the task at hand, however, which is beating the Patriots in Baltimore next Sunday.
I won't pretend that beating the Patriots is an easy task. It most certainly is not. This is a Patriots team that still possesses excellent coaching, a top-notch quarterback, and enough receiving weapons to complete furious drives downfield. It is, nevertheless, a team that no longer possesses its biggest redzone receiving weapon who also happens to be a thunderous blocker. No longer do the Patriots have any serious threats that pose anything real physical mismatch issues with Ravens defensive backs and linebackers. Michael Hoomanawanui made a great touchdown grab against the Dolphins on Sunday, but it was also his first touchdown this year and his only catch all game last weekend. If the Ravens can keep Megatron out of the endzone, don't expect Hoomanawanui to have a tremendous amount of success there. The Patriots, instead, possess a handful of smaller, agile receivers such as Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman. It is for this reason that the Patriots will still be competitive next Sunday when they visit M&T Bank Stadium.
Fortunately for the Ravens, Jimmy Smith, Lardarius Webb, James Ihedigbo, Corey Graham, and even Matt Elam have played extremely well as of late. They've faced a laundry list of some of the best receivers in the league including Andre Johnson, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, Josh Gordon, Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffrey, and most recently Calvin Johnson. The Ravens did not allow a single one of these receivers to catch for 100+ yards. The Ravens won't have to worry as much about big plays downfield with the Patriots. Baltimore will, instead, have to deal with quick, short passes to quick, short receivers. Tom Brady's quick release and pin-point accuracy both make getting pressure on the Super Bowl winning quarterback difficult, but the Ravens have done it in the past and they can do it again.
The Ravens have a few major reasons they should be favored going into next week's game against the Patriots in Baltimore. The first is that the Patriots' injuries extend far beyond just Rob Gronkowski. Patriots receivers Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson were also out last week against the Dolphins and are listed as questionable at this point. Patriots offensive tackle Nate Solder suffered another concussion against the Dolphins, and that could keep him out against the Ravens on Sunday. Defensively speaking the Patriots lost a lot when Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo suffered season-ending injuries. One factor minimized the appearance of those defensive injuries and that was the return of Rob Gronkowski. Shortly after the Patriots lost two integral defensive pieces, they got back their biggest offensive weapon and made up for defensive deficiencies with offensive production. Suddenly the Patriots weren't just edging teams, they were putting up 55 points on the Steelers or waging furious comebacks against the Broncos after being down by an impossible first half deficit.
Well now the Patriots are out Wilfork, Mayo, AND Gronkowski all at once. All three of these losses are now painfully apparent as the Patriots dropped their first game to the Dolphins in roughly half a decade last week. The Dolphins have improved as of late, but one has to assume the Fins wouldn't have had nearly the same opportunity to win with Vince Wilfork bulldozing through the Dolphins' uneven offensive line and Rob Gronkowski as a target in that final Patriots offensive drive. Injuries, however, are part of the game, and the truly dominant teams are the ones that possess the depth to deal with personnel losses and keep winning. The Patriots have dealt with personnel losses all season and have continued to be victorious, but their roster may have simply hit its tipping point recently with the loss of Gronkowski.
The second major reason the Ravens should be favored going into next week's showdown with the Patriots is the Ravens' homefield advantage. The Ravens won in heart-stopping fashion last night on the road to prove to the world that they can win in playoff-style environments, but they're unquestionably better at home. The deafening roar of the Ravens' fan base makes operating an opposing offense diffucult, and the lack of a deafening roar while the Ravens are on offense allows Flacco and company to communicate unimpeded by noise. The Ravens offense operates better at home not because it scores vastly more points at home...it doesn't. The Ravens have scored 151 points at home and 145 points on the road this season, but the points on the road often come too little too late, and slow starts doomed the Ravens in many of their road losses. Much of the Ravens points on the road were essentially garbage time scores. Being at home allows the Ravens to score early and not take tremendous risks with the football that might lead to turnovers.
I wouldn't count on the Patriots defense wreaking enough havoc to lead to a Ravens loss. The third major reason the Ravens should be favored is that the Patriots have a poorly ranked defense (24th overall). The Patriots are 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed (132.5 per game) and 18th in the league in pass yards allowed (240.2 per game). The Patriots have had a formidable pass rush overall this season with 40 sacks, but the Ravens have held for more impressive defensive fronts away from Flacco including that of the Jets and Lions. The Ravens offensive line still struggles to run block at times, but they have become excellent pass blockers lately, and that's exactly what is going to allow the Ravens to open up on a mediocre Patriots pass defense.
I would be getting far ahead of myself if I predicted the outcome of the Ravens-Patriots game less than 24 hours after the Ravens last game. There are reasons to be optimistic about next Sunday, but there's no way to know the true state of either team until the late-week injury reports are released. Flacco, after all, was just hit with a helmet in his leg, and we won't know the effect that will have on his ability to stay mobile and step into his throws until later this week. One down, two to go, Baltimore!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Now let's get right back to all of those things I asked you to forget at the beginning of the last paragraph. The Ravens face two division-leading teams to finish out their season. Those division-leading teams, however, are remarkably vulnerable at this point in the season. The Patriots find themselves particularly slowed by their lack of a dominant, giant tight end. The Bengals find themselves slowed by the loss of a large number of defensive cogs this season including a number of cornerbacks and their best defensive lineman. The Steelers showed the world just how beatable the Bengals are--not that the Ravens didn't already know that after BEATING THEM EARLIER THIS SEASON. The way Matt Cassel has played in the last two weeks, it's entirely possible that the Bengals lose their two remaining games and find themselves out of the playoffs entirely if the Dolphins can win at least one of their two remaining games. Let's stick to the task at hand, however, which is beating the Patriots in Baltimore next Sunday.
I won't pretend that beating the Patriots is an easy task. It most certainly is not. This is a Patriots team that still possesses excellent coaching, a top-notch quarterback, and enough receiving weapons to complete furious drives downfield. It is, nevertheless, a team that no longer possesses its biggest redzone receiving weapon who also happens to be a thunderous blocker. No longer do the Patriots have any serious threats that pose anything real physical mismatch issues with Ravens defensive backs and linebackers. Michael Hoomanawanui made a great touchdown grab against the Dolphins on Sunday, but it was also his first touchdown this year and his only catch all game last weekend. If the Ravens can keep Megatron out of the endzone, don't expect Hoomanawanui to have a tremendous amount of success there. The Patriots, instead, possess a handful of smaller, agile receivers such as Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman. It is for this reason that the Patriots will still be competitive next Sunday when they visit M&T Bank Stadium.
Fortunately for the Ravens, Jimmy Smith, Lardarius Webb, James Ihedigbo, Corey Graham, and even Matt Elam have played extremely well as of late. They've faced a laundry list of some of the best receivers in the league including Andre Johnson, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, Josh Gordon, Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffrey, and most recently Calvin Johnson. The Ravens did not allow a single one of these receivers to catch for 100+ yards. The Ravens won't have to worry as much about big plays downfield with the Patriots. Baltimore will, instead, have to deal with quick, short passes to quick, short receivers. Tom Brady's quick release and pin-point accuracy both make getting pressure on the Super Bowl winning quarterback difficult, but the Ravens have done it in the past and they can do it again.
The Ravens have a few major reasons they should be favored going into next week's game against the Patriots in Baltimore. The first is that the Patriots' injuries extend far beyond just Rob Gronkowski. Patriots receivers Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson were also out last week against the Dolphins and are listed as questionable at this point. Patriots offensive tackle Nate Solder suffered another concussion against the Dolphins, and that could keep him out against the Ravens on Sunday. Defensively speaking the Patriots lost a lot when Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo suffered season-ending injuries. One factor minimized the appearance of those defensive injuries and that was the return of Rob Gronkowski. Shortly after the Patriots lost two integral defensive pieces, they got back their biggest offensive weapon and made up for defensive deficiencies with offensive production. Suddenly the Patriots weren't just edging teams, they were putting up 55 points on the Steelers or waging furious comebacks against the Broncos after being down by an impossible first half deficit.
Well now the Patriots are out Wilfork, Mayo, AND Gronkowski all at once. All three of these losses are now painfully apparent as the Patriots dropped their first game to the Dolphins in roughly half a decade last week. The Dolphins have improved as of late, but one has to assume the Fins wouldn't have had nearly the same opportunity to win with Vince Wilfork bulldozing through the Dolphins' uneven offensive line and Rob Gronkowski as a target in that final Patriots offensive drive. Injuries, however, are part of the game, and the truly dominant teams are the ones that possess the depth to deal with personnel losses and keep winning. The Patriots have dealt with personnel losses all season and have continued to be victorious, but their roster may have simply hit its tipping point recently with the loss of Gronkowski.
The second major reason the Ravens should be favored going into next week's showdown with the Patriots is the Ravens' homefield advantage. The Ravens won in heart-stopping fashion last night on the road to prove to the world that they can win in playoff-style environments, but they're unquestionably better at home. The deafening roar of the Ravens' fan base makes operating an opposing offense diffucult, and the lack of a deafening roar while the Ravens are on offense allows Flacco and company to communicate unimpeded by noise. The Ravens offense operates better at home not because it scores vastly more points at home...it doesn't. The Ravens have scored 151 points at home and 145 points on the road this season, but the points on the road often come too little too late, and slow starts doomed the Ravens in many of their road losses. Much of the Ravens points on the road were essentially garbage time scores. Being at home allows the Ravens to score early and not take tremendous risks with the football that might lead to turnovers.
I wouldn't count on the Patriots defense wreaking enough havoc to lead to a Ravens loss. The third major reason the Ravens should be favored is that the Patriots have a poorly ranked defense (24th overall). The Patriots are 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed (132.5 per game) and 18th in the league in pass yards allowed (240.2 per game). The Patriots have had a formidable pass rush overall this season with 40 sacks, but the Ravens have held for more impressive defensive fronts away from Flacco including that of the Jets and Lions. The Ravens offensive line still struggles to run block at times, but they have become excellent pass blockers lately, and that's exactly what is going to allow the Ravens to open up on a mediocre Patriots pass defense.
I would be getting far ahead of myself if I predicted the outcome of the Ravens-Patriots game less than 24 hours after the Ravens last game. There are reasons to be optimistic about next Sunday, but there's no way to know the true state of either team until the late-week injury reports are released. Flacco, after all, was just hit with a helmet in his leg, and we won't know the effect that will have on his ability to stay mobile and step into his throws until later this week. One down, two to go, Baltimore!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, December 15, 2013
WEEK 15 NFL PREDICTIONS
This NFL season has been one HELL of a ride. Just when we fans finally believe that we can classify a handful of teams as "elite", each and every one of those teams suffers a major loss within the last few weeks. The Saints were absolutely dominated by the Seahawks, the Seahawks were beaten by the 49ers, and the Broncos fell to the Chargers at home. The Patriots DID beat the Browns in an extremely close game last weekend, but they lost Rob Gronkowski in the process and face two tough road trips against teams fighting desperately for the final playoff spot. Peyton Manning has now lost two out of his last three cold weather games, and his latest cold weather loss came only days after Manning used some choice dismissive words in response to critics that claimed he struggled in frigid environments. Clearly, the critics had the last laugh. In the NFC, it appears as though either the Seahawks or the Saints will likely go straight to the Super Bowl if either of them has homefield advantage the entire way through the postseason. A few weeks ago, many might have said the same thing about either the Patriots or Broncos, but now the AFC appears wide open.
Our beloved Ravens have won 4 out of their last 5 games to improve to 7-6 with control of the final spot in the playoffs if they can simply stay ahead of the Dolphins and Chargers. The Chargers appeared doomed to miss the playoffs before they upset the Broncos in Denver only a few nights ago. At 7-7, the Broncos could easily win out and improve to 9-7 and snag the final wildcard spot if the Ravens don't manage to handle their own business. The Dolphins will host the Patriots at 1:00 on Sunday, and they'll have the pleasure of Rob Gronkowski's aforementioned absence. The Steelers host the Bengals at 4:25 for what will be their last chance to avoid a losing season and possibly get to the playoffs if the other wildcard frontrunners lose out. The Ravens, meanwhile, travel to Detroit to face on Monday a Lions team that has done little but lose in the past month, and yet somehow most of the sports world still believes they should be favored.
The Ravens have one distinct advantage over the rest of the wildcard contenders that still have yet to play their game for this week. Baltimore gets to sit and watch on Sunday to see what the Steelers, Bengals, and Dolphins do before they play their own game the following night. If the Dolphins lose, the Ravens know that they have a small amount of breathing room if somehow they end up losing to the Lions. If the Dolphins beat the Patriots, however, the Ravens know that Detroit is an absolute must-win game with zero room for error. If the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Ravens will know that they have almost no chance to win the AFC North division. Regardless of the scenario, the only way the Ravens can guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs is to win all three of their remaining games, and that's precisely what they aim to do. Let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 15 NFL PREDICTIONS
TEXANS AT COLTS- The Texans appear doomed to set a record this season for most games lost by 3 points or less. This team has an elite defense in regards to yardage allowed and a solid offense in regards to yardage allowed, but coaching and quarterback issues have turned them into the biggest letdown in the league this season. The Colts haven't looked truly impressive for many weeks since the game in which they beat the Broncos but lost Reggie Wayne. Regardless, the Texans lost to the Colts in Houston after Reggie Wayne went down, and they definitely should lose in Indy on Sunday. COLTS 33-27.
REDSKINS AT FALCONS- The Redskins are in total disarray, but then again, so are the Falcons. This could actually be the most meaningless game played this season. In showdowns between two total duds such as these teams, I generally tend to pick the team with homefield advantage. FALCONS 28-21.
BEARS AT BROWNS- We saw what the Browns could do last week, and the Bears will be starting a quarterback that hasn't played in weeks. The Browns defense should be able to limit the Bears offense enough to give their own offense the chance to outscore Chicago. A lot of teams feel high on themselves after beating the Cowboys, but they shouldn't because they just beat a team without a functional defense. BROWNS 26-17.
PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS- This game is painful for me. I love the city of Miami and actually root for the Dolphins when they're not playing the Ravens. I also hate the Patriots with every fiber of my being. The Ravens, however, benefit greatly if the Patriots win this game. The Patriots simply aren't the same team without Gronkowski. The Dolphins offensive line has solidified since the addition of Bryant McKinnie, and the Fins have looked downright dominant in the last month with their only loss to the Panthers...and it was quite narrow loss at that. I originally picked the Patriots to win this game, but the Dolphins have finally proven they can put up big points even in harsh environments. They're capable of beating a wounded Patriots team in their own house. DOLPHINS 31-28.
EAGLES AT VIKINGS- Don't let last week's snowy touchdownfest fool you. The Vikings are still a bad team. The Eagles are simply too dangerous offensively speaking, and with both Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart questionable, there's no way in my mind that the Vikings could possibly keep up with the Eagles' offensive attack. EAGLES 38-27.
SEAHAWKS AT GIANTS- The Seahawks are unquestionably a better team than the Giants. This game will, nevertheless, be much closer than most expect it to be. No Jason Pierre Paul means no real pass rush for the G-Men. SEAHAWKS 24-19.
49ERS AT BUCCANEERS- The Buccaneers have won 4 out of their last 5 games, but they've mostly only beaten teams without elite defenses this season. The 49ers have a great defense and they aren't afraid to use it. 49ERS 20-17.
BILLS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have suddenly become a good football team. JAGUARS 23-14.
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS- Earlier in the season I would have said the Raiders were capable of pulling off an upset of the Chiefs, but not at this point. The Chiefs will be hungry for a win after the Broncos gave them hope that they could possibly win the division. CHIEFS 35-21.
JETS AT PANTHERS- Do I have to actually give an explanation here? PANTHERS 30-9.
PACKERS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys defense is impossibly bad, but the Packers aren't winners without Aaron Rodgers. COWBOYS 28-23.
CARDINALS AT TITANS- I bet Bernard Pollard isn't so pumped about his new team now...not that I don't still miss his punishing hits on Wes Welker and many others. The Cardinals are playing extremely well recently and should win this game. Watch out, NFC, this dark horse could make a strong playoff run. CARDINALS 27-20.
SAINTS AT RAMS- The Rams are capable of playing strong teams well at home, but the Saints will be right in their own wheelhouse in a dome environment and they're unquestionably the stronger team. SAINTS 42-24.
BENGALS AT STEELERS- The Bengals healed well in their bye week and haven't lost a game since. The Steelers are no longer strong at home, but that doesn't mean they won't put up a fight in this one.
RAVENS AT LIONS- If I'm wrong and the Dolphins lose to the Patriots (which is highly possible) the Ravens don't ABSOLUTELY need to win this game...but they kind of do anyway. If the Ravens are going to win any games in the playoffs, they'll need to be able to win on the road. With only a single road win this season, the Ravens have yet to prove that they can even begin to compete in the postseason. The Lions are a one-dimensional team, and their so-called "nasty" defensive line has actually underperformed to an extreme degree in the pass rushing department this season. The Ravens are the healthiest they've been all season, and the Lions have only won a single game in the last month. We got this. RAVENS 28-24.
TEAM OF DESTINY 2.0?
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Our beloved Ravens have won 4 out of their last 5 games to improve to 7-6 with control of the final spot in the playoffs if they can simply stay ahead of the Dolphins and Chargers. The Chargers appeared doomed to miss the playoffs before they upset the Broncos in Denver only a few nights ago. At 7-7, the Broncos could easily win out and improve to 9-7 and snag the final wildcard spot if the Ravens don't manage to handle their own business. The Dolphins will host the Patriots at 1:00 on Sunday, and they'll have the pleasure of Rob Gronkowski's aforementioned absence. The Steelers host the Bengals at 4:25 for what will be their last chance to avoid a losing season and possibly get to the playoffs if the other wildcard frontrunners lose out. The Ravens, meanwhile, travel to Detroit to face on Monday a Lions team that has done little but lose in the past month, and yet somehow most of the sports world still believes they should be favored.
The Ravens have one distinct advantage over the rest of the wildcard contenders that still have yet to play their game for this week. Baltimore gets to sit and watch on Sunday to see what the Steelers, Bengals, and Dolphins do before they play their own game the following night. If the Dolphins lose, the Ravens know that they have a small amount of breathing room if somehow they end up losing to the Lions. If the Dolphins beat the Patriots, however, the Ravens know that Detroit is an absolute must-win game with zero room for error. If the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Ravens will know that they have almost no chance to win the AFC North division. Regardless of the scenario, the only way the Ravens can guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs is to win all three of their remaining games, and that's precisely what they aim to do. Let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 15 NFL PREDICTIONS
TEXANS AT COLTS- The Texans appear doomed to set a record this season for most games lost by 3 points or less. This team has an elite defense in regards to yardage allowed and a solid offense in regards to yardage allowed, but coaching and quarterback issues have turned them into the biggest letdown in the league this season. The Colts haven't looked truly impressive for many weeks since the game in which they beat the Broncos but lost Reggie Wayne. Regardless, the Texans lost to the Colts in Houston after Reggie Wayne went down, and they definitely should lose in Indy on Sunday. COLTS 33-27.
REDSKINS AT FALCONS- The Redskins are in total disarray, but then again, so are the Falcons. This could actually be the most meaningless game played this season. In showdowns between two total duds such as these teams, I generally tend to pick the team with homefield advantage. FALCONS 28-21.
BEARS AT BROWNS- We saw what the Browns could do last week, and the Bears will be starting a quarterback that hasn't played in weeks. The Browns defense should be able to limit the Bears offense enough to give their own offense the chance to outscore Chicago. A lot of teams feel high on themselves after beating the Cowboys, but they shouldn't because they just beat a team without a functional defense. BROWNS 26-17.
PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS- This game is painful for me. I love the city of Miami and actually root for the Dolphins when they're not playing the Ravens. I also hate the Patriots with every fiber of my being. The Ravens, however, benefit greatly if the Patriots win this game. The Patriots simply aren't the same team without Gronkowski. The Dolphins offensive line has solidified since the addition of Bryant McKinnie, and the Fins have looked downright dominant in the last month with their only loss to the Panthers...and it was quite narrow loss at that. I originally picked the Patriots to win this game, but the Dolphins have finally proven they can put up big points even in harsh environments. They're capable of beating a wounded Patriots team in their own house. DOLPHINS 31-28.
EAGLES AT VIKINGS- Don't let last week's snowy touchdownfest fool you. The Vikings are still a bad team. The Eagles are simply too dangerous offensively speaking, and with both Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart questionable, there's no way in my mind that the Vikings could possibly keep up with the Eagles' offensive attack. EAGLES 38-27.
SEAHAWKS AT GIANTS- The Seahawks are unquestionably a better team than the Giants. This game will, nevertheless, be much closer than most expect it to be. No Jason Pierre Paul means no real pass rush for the G-Men. SEAHAWKS 24-19.
49ERS AT BUCCANEERS- The Buccaneers have won 4 out of their last 5 games, but they've mostly only beaten teams without elite defenses this season. The 49ers have a great defense and they aren't afraid to use it. 49ERS 20-17.
BILLS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have suddenly become a good football team. JAGUARS 23-14.
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS- Earlier in the season I would have said the Raiders were capable of pulling off an upset of the Chiefs, but not at this point. The Chiefs will be hungry for a win after the Broncos gave them hope that they could possibly win the division. CHIEFS 35-21.
JETS AT PANTHERS- Do I have to actually give an explanation here? PANTHERS 30-9.
PACKERS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys defense is impossibly bad, but the Packers aren't winners without Aaron Rodgers. COWBOYS 28-23.
CARDINALS AT TITANS- I bet Bernard Pollard isn't so pumped about his new team now...not that I don't still miss his punishing hits on Wes Welker and many others. The Cardinals are playing extremely well recently and should win this game. Watch out, NFC, this dark horse could make a strong playoff run. CARDINALS 27-20.
SAINTS AT RAMS- The Rams are capable of playing strong teams well at home, but the Saints will be right in their own wheelhouse in a dome environment and they're unquestionably the stronger team. SAINTS 42-24.
BENGALS AT STEELERS- The Bengals healed well in their bye week and haven't lost a game since. The Steelers are no longer strong at home, but that doesn't mean they won't put up a fight in this one.
RAVENS AT LIONS- If I'm wrong and the Dolphins lose to the Patriots (which is highly possible) the Ravens don't ABSOLUTELY need to win this game...but they kind of do anyway. If the Ravens are going to win any games in the playoffs, they'll need to be able to win on the road. With only a single road win this season, the Ravens have yet to prove that they can even begin to compete in the postseason. The Lions are a one-dimensional team, and their so-called "nasty" defensive line has actually underperformed to an extreme degree in the pass rushing department this season. The Ravens are the healthiest they've been all season, and the Lions have only won a single game in the last month. We got this. RAVENS 28-24.
TEAM OF DESTINY 2.0?
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, December 12, 2013
TAMING THE LIONS: SHOULD THE RAVENS BE AFRAID OF THESE CATS?
There's no way around it. The Ravens have only won a single road game this season. Joe Flacco and company have certainly ramped up their level of play as of late with three consecutive wins, but all three of those wins took place in M&T back Stadium where the Ravens are 6-1 on the season. Are the Ravens truly that much worse on the road? Or could it simply be that the Ravens were only a few plays away from winning almost every road game they played this year? I've spoken to many who believe that Detroit will be an extremely difficult team to beat on the road because of their high octane passing offense and downright mean pass rushers. Others, however, have pointed to the Lions' recent struggles and their poor pass defense as a reason why the Ravens should thrive--especially with the return of Joe Flacco's favorite target. Both the Ravens and Lions played their respective games last weekend in driving snow, and it is for this reason that we can't use statistics from those games to help predict the outcome of next Monday night's inevitably epic showdown between playoff contenders. Instead we must look further back into the season and determine which games and statistics are truly relevant to predict how the Ravens will fare when they travel to the Motor City on Monday.
The Lions have lost three out of their last 4 games, and they haven't all been road losses or losses to impressive teams. In Week 12, for example, the Lions lost at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers...and the Bucs are awful. The Lions, in fact, also lost to the Bengals at home in Week 7. The Lions' home record isn't bad at 4-2, but it's safe to say that the Lions don't dominate competitive teams at home. Detroit, after all, only has one home win over a reasonably competitive team, the Chicago Bears, and the rest of their home wins have come against teams that currently possess 4 wins or less or are missing their starting quarterback, as is the case with the Packers.
So what did the teams that beat the Lions at home have in common? At first glance, the Bengals and Buccaneers don't appear to have much in common. The Bengals lead their division with 10 wins, and the Buccaneers' season is basically meaningless at this point with a lowly 4 wins. All 4 of the Buccaneers' wins, however, have come in the last 5 weeks, and 6 weeks ago the Buccaneers lost an overtime thriller to the mighty Seahawks by only 3 points IN SEATTLE! So what do the Bengals and Buccaneers have in common? That's simple: defense. The Bengals and Buccaneers have allowed 20 and 20.2 points per game over their last 5 games respectively. The Buccaneers possess a top 10 run defense, but Darrelle Revis has re-emerged as a dominant cornerback, and that has made the a difference over the last 5 weeks.
The problem, however, is that both the Bengals and Buccaneers allowed a sizable amount of passing yards when they played in Detroit. Matthew Stafford threw for 357 passing yards against the Bengals and 297 yards against the Buccaneers. You might be wondering how on earth these teams managed to win. The Buccaneers won in a starkly different fashion than the Bengals, but both methods of winning reflect season-long vulnerabilities that have plagued the Lions. The Bengals took advantage of the first major weakness of the Lions: pass defense. The Lions currently rank 25th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, and despite Stafford's impressive amount of passing yards against the Bengals, the Lions lost because Andy Dalton threw for even MORE passing yards (372) that day.
The Buccaneers didn't amass an impressive number of rushing or passing yards on the Lions, but they did take advantage of a major problem with Detroit's offense that has presented itself frequently as of late. The Buccaneers intercepted Matthew Stafford 4 times to give themselves short fields from which to score. Stafford has thrown 10 interceptions in his last 6 games, and the Lions defense isn't strong enough to keep opposing teams from scoring off of turnovers.
The Ravens haven't forced turnovers at nearly the same rate as they had for many years before this season, but the Baltimore secondary is full of players that have displayed the ability to find the ball. Lardarius Webb still hasn't returned to complete full strength coming off of his most recent ACL tear. Webb, however, received guidance for years from the one-great Ed Reed which helped to turn #21 into one of the best ball-hawking corners in the league. Jimmy Smith doesn't have staggering number of picks, but he seems to come up with timely and sometimes acrobatic interceptions that demonstrate his impressive hands and athleticism. James Ihedigbo certainly showed his ball-hawking skills this season with two impressive interceptions against the Bengals, and Corey Graham has 3 picks on the year as well. The only secondary starter without a pick this season has been Matt Elam, but it's only a matter of time until the talented young guy ends that drought.
Matthew Stafford is not the only quarterback playing on Monday night who has turned the ball over with frequency this season. Joe Flacco has actually thrown 3 more interceptions than Stafford including 3 last week against the Vikings. Flacco's rise in interceptions this season can be attributed to a weakened protection in the first half of the season and an incredible amount of turnover and lack of chemistry with his receiving corps. The Ravens offensive line has protected Joe much better recently and Flacco's chemistry and familiarity with his receiving corps has improved tremendously. The defensive line of the Lions is generally regarded as mean, dirty, and dominant, but Lions have only notched 27 sacks this season (10 less than the Ravens).
The big change in the Ravens offense from what fans saw earlier this season will undoubtedly be the presence of Dennis Pitta. Pitta performed in spectacular fashion last Sunday, and he suffered no setbacks to his injury. I fully expect Pitta to have another strong day against a poor Lions pass defense on Monday. Pitta's presence should both allow the Ravens offense to sustain drives with his clutch catches on 3rd downs and allow the likes of Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones, and Marlon Brown to get open far more easily. The Lions will have a difficult time deciding who they want to double team as the Ravens possess speed, height, and hands at every single receiving position now that Pitta is back. I've said it many times, but I'll say it again. Pitta's presence should lead to increased production from Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce as the tight end will draw linebackers into pass coverage over the middle and take away their ability to commit to defending the run.
The Ravens offense has ranked quite poorly this season, but that was in large part because they were missing serious production from the tight end position. Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson occasionally made plays, but they did so with such little consistency and frequency that neither ever fully gained Flacco's trust as a sure-handed security blanket to ensure the continuation of critical drives. Having consistent tight end play is almost certainly what would have changed many of the Ravens' narrow road losses into wins this season. Fortunately for Baltimore, they're getting back this critical piece to their offense just in time for the toughest stretch of their schedule with the possibility of a playoff berth in the balance. Every single one of the teams the Ravens face in the remainder of the regular season is entirely beatable, and Baltimore have its guns loaded with #88 back on the turf.
Now just because the Lions lost to the Buccaneers and Bengals doesn't necessarily mean they aren't capable of putting up an impressive performance against the Ravens. They still have offensive weapons all over the field and some defensive lineman that should put pressure on Joe Flacco. The question isn't whether or not the Lions can score on the Ravens, because they will. The question is how much the Lions can score on the Ravens and whether or not the Lions can stop the Ravens from putting up a greater score. I will not pretend to have a good idea of who will win or what the score might be at this point as these teams don't play until Monday. It's imperative that we pay attention to the injury report for each of these teams as players such as Reggie Bush and Elvis Dumervil may return to the field. In the meantime, I'll continue to crunch numbers and compile stats about other facets of the Ravens and Lions before making my prediction.
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- Peyton Manning certainly patted himself on the back for beating a team with a losing record at home in cold weather. Bravo, Peyton. If you can do it when it truly counts in the postseason then I'll change my opinion of your physical limitations. With that said, the Broncos have yet another test in the cold weather, and this time it'll be against the Chargers in Denver. Wes Welker is out with a concussion, but the Broncos have enough receiving weapons between Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, and Demariyus Thomas in order to win this game. The Chargers aren't equipped to win in this weather, but hopefully this will be a quarterbacks duel and things will stay interesting. BRONCOS 38-33.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Lions have lost three out of their last 4 games, and they haven't all been road losses or losses to impressive teams. In Week 12, for example, the Lions lost at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers...and the Bucs are awful. The Lions, in fact, also lost to the Bengals at home in Week 7. The Lions' home record isn't bad at 4-2, but it's safe to say that the Lions don't dominate competitive teams at home. Detroit, after all, only has one home win over a reasonably competitive team, the Chicago Bears, and the rest of their home wins have come against teams that currently possess 4 wins or less or are missing their starting quarterback, as is the case with the Packers.
So what did the teams that beat the Lions at home have in common? At first glance, the Bengals and Buccaneers don't appear to have much in common. The Bengals lead their division with 10 wins, and the Buccaneers' season is basically meaningless at this point with a lowly 4 wins. All 4 of the Buccaneers' wins, however, have come in the last 5 weeks, and 6 weeks ago the Buccaneers lost an overtime thriller to the mighty Seahawks by only 3 points IN SEATTLE! So what do the Bengals and Buccaneers have in common? That's simple: defense. The Bengals and Buccaneers have allowed 20 and 20.2 points per game over their last 5 games respectively. The Buccaneers possess a top 10 run defense, but Darrelle Revis has re-emerged as a dominant cornerback, and that has made the a difference over the last 5 weeks.
The problem, however, is that both the Bengals and Buccaneers allowed a sizable amount of passing yards when they played in Detroit. Matthew Stafford threw for 357 passing yards against the Bengals and 297 yards against the Buccaneers. You might be wondering how on earth these teams managed to win. The Buccaneers won in a starkly different fashion than the Bengals, but both methods of winning reflect season-long vulnerabilities that have plagued the Lions. The Bengals took advantage of the first major weakness of the Lions: pass defense. The Lions currently rank 25th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, and despite Stafford's impressive amount of passing yards against the Bengals, the Lions lost because Andy Dalton threw for even MORE passing yards (372) that day.
The Buccaneers didn't amass an impressive number of rushing or passing yards on the Lions, but they did take advantage of a major problem with Detroit's offense that has presented itself frequently as of late. The Buccaneers intercepted Matthew Stafford 4 times to give themselves short fields from which to score. Stafford has thrown 10 interceptions in his last 6 games, and the Lions defense isn't strong enough to keep opposing teams from scoring off of turnovers.
The Ravens haven't forced turnovers at nearly the same rate as they had for many years before this season, but the Baltimore secondary is full of players that have displayed the ability to find the ball. Lardarius Webb still hasn't returned to complete full strength coming off of his most recent ACL tear. Webb, however, received guidance for years from the one-great Ed Reed which helped to turn #21 into one of the best ball-hawking corners in the league. Jimmy Smith doesn't have staggering number of picks, but he seems to come up with timely and sometimes acrobatic interceptions that demonstrate his impressive hands and athleticism. James Ihedigbo certainly showed his ball-hawking skills this season with two impressive interceptions against the Bengals, and Corey Graham has 3 picks on the year as well. The only secondary starter without a pick this season has been Matt Elam, but it's only a matter of time until the talented young guy ends that drought.
Matthew Stafford is not the only quarterback playing on Monday night who has turned the ball over with frequency this season. Joe Flacco has actually thrown 3 more interceptions than Stafford including 3 last week against the Vikings. Flacco's rise in interceptions this season can be attributed to a weakened protection in the first half of the season and an incredible amount of turnover and lack of chemistry with his receiving corps. The Ravens offensive line has protected Joe much better recently and Flacco's chemistry and familiarity with his receiving corps has improved tremendously. The defensive line of the Lions is generally regarded as mean, dirty, and dominant, but Lions have only notched 27 sacks this season (10 less than the Ravens).
The big change in the Ravens offense from what fans saw earlier this season will undoubtedly be the presence of Dennis Pitta. Pitta performed in spectacular fashion last Sunday, and he suffered no setbacks to his injury. I fully expect Pitta to have another strong day against a poor Lions pass defense on Monday. Pitta's presence should both allow the Ravens offense to sustain drives with his clutch catches on 3rd downs and allow the likes of Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones, and Marlon Brown to get open far more easily. The Lions will have a difficult time deciding who they want to double team as the Ravens possess speed, height, and hands at every single receiving position now that Pitta is back. I've said it many times, but I'll say it again. Pitta's presence should lead to increased production from Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce as the tight end will draw linebackers into pass coverage over the middle and take away their ability to commit to defending the run.
The Ravens offense has ranked quite poorly this season, but that was in large part because they were missing serious production from the tight end position. Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson occasionally made plays, but they did so with such little consistency and frequency that neither ever fully gained Flacco's trust as a sure-handed security blanket to ensure the continuation of critical drives. Having consistent tight end play is almost certainly what would have changed many of the Ravens' narrow road losses into wins this season. Fortunately for Baltimore, they're getting back this critical piece to their offense just in time for the toughest stretch of their schedule with the possibility of a playoff berth in the balance. Every single one of the teams the Ravens face in the remainder of the regular season is entirely beatable, and Baltimore have its guns loaded with #88 back on the turf.
Now just because the Lions lost to the Buccaneers and Bengals doesn't necessarily mean they aren't capable of putting up an impressive performance against the Ravens. They still have offensive weapons all over the field and some defensive lineman that should put pressure on Joe Flacco. The question isn't whether or not the Lions can score on the Ravens, because they will. The question is how much the Lions can score on the Ravens and whether or not the Lions can stop the Ravens from putting up a greater score. I will not pretend to have a good idea of who will win or what the score might be at this point as these teams don't play until Monday. It's imperative that we pay attention to the injury report for each of these teams as players such as Reggie Bush and Elvis Dumervil may return to the field. In the meantime, I'll continue to crunch numbers and compile stats about other facets of the Ravens and Lions before making my prediction.
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- Peyton Manning certainly patted himself on the back for beating a team with a losing record at home in cold weather. Bravo, Peyton. If you can do it when it truly counts in the postseason then I'll change my opinion of your physical limitations. With that said, the Broncos have yet another test in the cold weather, and this time it'll be against the Chargers in Denver. Wes Welker is out with a concussion, but the Broncos have enough receiving weapons between Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, and Demariyus Thomas in order to win this game. The Chargers aren't equipped to win in this weather, but hopefully this will be a quarterbacks duel and things will stay interesting. BRONCOS 38-33.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
PURPLE POSTSEASON PUSH: A LOOK AT POSSIBLE RAVENS PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
THE DENNIS PITTA FACTOR
I could spend an unnecessarily long time examining and analyzing everything that happened on Sunday against the Vikings, but inclement weather made for a sloppy game that fans shouldn't use as an indicator of the current strength and state of the Baltimore Ravens. There was only one major aspect of Sunday's game that proved noteworthy and significant for the Ravens going forward: DENNIS PITTA.
One has but to read back over the Purple Nightmare posts of this season to see just what a factor I believed Dennis Pitta would be upon his return to the field. I caught a fair amount of flack from readers who assured me that Pitta probably wouldn't come back at 100% of what he was prior to his injury. Some insisted that they were quite positive Pitta should just rest up for the remainder of the season to be healthy for next year because he couldn't possibly make enough of a difference to save this mediocre team. I'm quite sure those fans are happy they were dead wrong. Pitta proved absolutely essential to the Ravens success last weekend with spectacular catches including his first touchdown of the season and a catch that set up the Ravens for a final successful touchdown attempt.
Dennis Pitta promptly proved that he remains a dominant receiving weapon to whom opposing teams much commit serious defensive effort and resources. With the addition of Dennis Pitta, the Ravens receiving corps is now complete with two world class burners on the outside (Smith and Jones), a huge young receiver in the slot (Marlon Brown), and now Joe Flacco's favorite tight end target who happens to possess some of the best hands in the league. With those four receivers on the field together, opposing defenses will unquestionably have their hands full. It, thus, bodes well for the Ravens that they travel to Detroit next week to face one of the worst pass defenses in the league and then a Patriots team the following week without two integral defensive cogs, Wilfork and Mayo, and their biggest offensive weapon, Rob Gronkowski.
POSSIBLE RAVENS PLAYOFF CLINCHING SCENARIOS
The Ravens are in control of their own destiny going forward, but it certainly wouldn't hurt to have some help from other teams to ensure a 6th straight playoff appearance for Joe Flacco and company. The Ravens are currently tied in record with the Miami Dolphins at 7-6, but they own a tiebreaker with their head to head victory over the Fins earlier in this season. The Dolphins face the Patriots in Miami next Sunday, and that will mark one of the few times I will enthusiastically root for the Patriots in my life...maybe the only time. I'm quite confident the Patriots will win, but the Dolphins have looked impressive at times this season and a win at home over the Gronkless Patriots wouldn't be the biggest shock of the sporting world.
Another big game to which Ravens fans, players, and coaches should pay close attention this Sunday is the showdown between the Steelers and Bengals in Pittsburgh. The Bengals beat the Steelers earlier this season in Cincinnati, but the Steelers have performed far better since they last faced the Bengals. The Bengals have also lost two of their best defensive pieces during that time.
So what do we Ravens fans want to transpire on Sunday? Let's examine some possible scenarios. If the Steelers beat the Bengals, then the Bengals will be 9-5 with two more games to play. That means that the Ravens could actually win the AFC North by winning all three of their remaining regular season games. Winning the AFC North with a 10-6 record would likely secure a 4th seed in the playoffs and a home game against a wildcard team in the first round. If, however, the Bengals beat the Steelers and improve to 10-4, the Ravens chances of winning the division become far slimmer as the Bengals play the lowly Vikings at home in Cincy the following week. This means the best the Ravens could do is secure the final wildcard spot and the 6th seed in the playoffs.
The 6th seed in the playoffs wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, and here's why. If the Bengals beat the Steelers and the Patriots beat the Dolphins, the Ravens simply have to beat the slumping Lions on the road (not necessarily an easy task) and then beat the Patriots at home without Rob Gronkowski. If the Ravens can win both of those games, they can afford to sit their starters in the final week of the season against the Bengals the way they did last season in order to have a virtual bye week to allow their most important players to get fully healthy before going on the road in the postseason.
With all of that said, it's still possible that the Dolphins lose more than one of their remaining games and the Ravens somehow get into the playoff with an 8-8 record. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. The Ravens have 3 games ahead of them against potential playoff contenders, and getting into the playoffs won't mean much if the Ravens can't show at the end of the regular season that they're capable of beating and possibly even dominating the level of team that they'll face in January. The NFL has scheduled all of this quite nicely for Ravens fans as the Patriots-Dolphins game is at 1:00 on Sunday, and the Bengals-Steelers game is at 8:30 later that night. In other words, we'll have a better idea late Sunday night as to whether or not the Ravens will have a shot at the AFC North title, whether or not they will have an opportunity to sit their starters in Week 17, or whether or not they'll be forced to win out to simply secure a wildcard spot. It'll be downright blasphemous to root for the Steelers and Patriots on the same day, but I'll feel no shame in doing so if the Ravens make the playoffs. I asked repeatedly that Baltimore fans maintain their faith in the Ravens and wait until Dennis Pitta returned to truly evaluate the strength of this team. I'm glad they did. It ain't over yet, guys.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
I could spend an unnecessarily long time examining and analyzing everything that happened on Sunday against the Vikings, but inclement weather made for a sloppy game that fans shouldn't use as an indicator of the current strength and state of the Baltimore Ravens. There was only one major aspect of Sunday's game that proved noteworthy and significant for the Ravens going forward: DENNIS PITTA.
One has but to read back over the Purple Nightmare posts of this season to see just what a factor I believed Dennis Pitta would be upon his return to the field. I caught a fair amount of flack from readers who assured me that Pitta probably wouldn't come back at 100% of what he was prior to his injury. Some insisted that they were quite positive Pitta should just rest up for the remainder of the season to be healthy for next year because he couldn't possibly make enough of a difference to save this mediocre team. I'm quite sure those fans are happy they were dead wrong. Pitta proved absolutely essential to the Ravens success last weekend with spectacular catches including his first touchdown of the season and a catch that set up the Ravens for a final successful touchdown attempt.
Dennis Pitta promptly proved that he remains a dominant receiving weapon to whom opposing teams much commit serious defensive effort and resources. With the addition of Dennis Pitta, the Ravens receiving corps is now complete with two world class burners on the outside (Smith and Jones), a huge young receiver in the slot (Marlon Brown), and now Joe Flacco's favorite tight end target who happens to possess some of the best hands in the league. With those four receivers on the field together, opposing defenses will unquestionably have their hands full. It, thus, bodes well for the Ravens that they travel to Detroit next week to face one of the worst pass defenses in the league and then a Patriots team the following week without two integral defensive cogs, Wilfork and Mayo, and their biggest offensive weapon, Rob Gronkowski.
POSSIBLE RAVENS PLAYOFF CLINCHING SCENARIOS
The Ravens are in control of their own destiny going forward, but it certainly wouldn't hurt to have some help from other teams to ensure a 6th straight playoff appearance for Joe Flacco and company. The Ravens are currently tied in record with the Miami Dolphins at 7-6, but they own a tiebreaker with their head to head victory over the Fins earlier in this season. The Dolphins face the Patriots in Miami next Sunday, and that will mark one of the few times I will enthusiastically root for the Patriots in my life...maybe the only time. I'm quite confident the Patriots will win, but the Dolphins have looked impressive at times this season and a win at home over the Gronkless Patriots wouldn't be the biggest shock of the sporting world.
Another big game to which Ravens fans, players, and coaches should pay close attention this Sunday is the showdown between the Steelers and Bengals in Pittsburgh. The Bengals beat the Steelers earlier this season in Cincinnati, but the Steelers have performed far better since they last faced the Bengals. The Bengals have also lost two of their best defensive pieces during that time.
So what do we Ravens fans want to transpire on Sunday? Let's examine some possible scenarios. If the Steelers beat the Bengals, then the Bengals will be 9-5 with two more games to play. That means that the Ravens could actually win the AFC North by winning all three of their remaining regular season games. Winning the AFC North with a 10-6 record would likely secure a 4th seed in the playoffs and a home game against a wildcard team in the first round. If, however, the Bengals beat the Steelers and improve to 10-4, the Ravens chances of winning the division become far slimmer as the Bengals play the lowly Vikings at home in Cincy the following week. This means the best the Ravens could do is secure the final wildcard spot and the 6th seed in the playoffs.
The 6th seed in the playoffs wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, and here's why. If the Bengals beat the Steelers and the Patriots beat the Dolphins, the Ravens simply have to beat the slumping Lions on the road (not necessarily an easy task) and then beat the Patriots at home without Rob Gronkowski. If the Ravens can win both of those games, they can afford to sit their starters in the final week of the season against the Bengals the way they did last season in order to have a virtual bye week to allow their most important players to get fully healthy before going on the road in the postseason.
With all of that said, it's still possible that the Dolphins lose more than one of their remaining games and the Ravens somehow get into the playoff with an 8-8 record. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. The Ravens have 3 games ahead of them against potential playoff contenders, and getting into the playoffs won't mean much if the Ravens can't show at the end of the regular season that they're capable of beating and possibly even dominating the level of team that they'll face in January. The NFL has scheduled all of this quite nicely for Ravens fans as the Patriots-Dolphins game is at 1:00 on Sunday, and the Bengals-Steelers game is at 8:30 later that night. In other words, we'll have a better idea late Sunday night as to whether or not the Ravens will have a shot at the AFC North title, whether or not they will have an opportunity to sit their starters in Week 17, or whether or not they'll be forced to win out to simply secure a wildcard spot. It'll be downright blasphemous to root for the Steelers and Patriots on the same day, but I'll feel no shame in doing so if the Ravens make the playoffs. I asked repeatedly that Baltimore fans maintain their faith in the Ravens and wait until Dennis Pitta returned to truly evaluate the strength of this team. I'm glad they did. It ain't over yet, guys.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, December 8, 2013
WEEK 14 NFL PREDICTIONS
Ravens fans finally get to see one of their favorite players take the field for other first time this season. Dennis Pitta dislocated his hip in the preseason, and the injury and rehab process has kept him sidelined ever since. Pitta may not play much today, but his active status on the roster is a good indication of his return to health and playing shape after practicing with the team for the last few weeks.
Baltimore faces an interesting challenge today in regards to the environmental challenge that has presented itself as of late. We woke up this morning to a relatively light blanket of snow, but that snow continues to fall and won't likely be finished falling until after the Ravens game has ended. The Baltimore area is only supposed to receive 1-3" of snow total, but we also may see some precipitation in the form of freezing rain later in the afternoon and evening. It's anyone's best guess how this will effect the game, but conventional wisdom would suggest that it would favor the team that has more success running the ball, and that team would be assumed to be the Vikings.
If there's one thing that I've learned, however, it's that the Ravens don't shy away from the challenge of inclement weather or impossibly cold temperatures. The other thing to consider is that the Vikings defense is so poor that the Ravens just might have a successful day of running the football as well in the way they did against the Bears a month ago. Regardless, the Vikings are 0-5 on the road this season and despite the temperature of their hometown, the Vikings are a dome team and not as prepared to deal with these types of elements on the road as the Ravens.
We've come to the homestretch of 2013. This is the first week of the final quarter of the season, and some rather pivotal matchups lay before us as the league is so drenched with mediocrity that few teams have playoff spots locked up. The most important games to watch this week are the Colts-Bengals, Lions-Eagles, Dolphins-Steelers, Seahawks-49ers, Panthers-Saints, and Cowboys-Bears games. Every single one of these games could either have playoff implications or give simply give us a preview of things to come in the postseason. Let's take a look at the picks!
WEEK 14 NFL PREDICTIONS
COLTS AT BENGALS- The Bengals looked impressive coming off of their bye last week, and despite their record, the Colts simply aren't going to scare anyone now that Reggie Wayne is out for the season. This should be a fairly cold game, and that doesn't bode well for a dome team. BENGALS 26-17.
FALCONS AT PACKERS- I would say that the Packers can't win without Aaron Rodgers, but the Falcons have been impossibly bad this year and will have a hell of a time stopping Eddie Lacy...in fact they won't stop him. PACKERS 31-23.
BROWNS AT PATRIOTS- Caleb Hanie? The Browns have a great defense this season, but their offense has been crippled by QB turnover. I won't say that there's no chance the Browns win this one, but there's ALMOST no chance. PATRIOTS 37-16.
RAIDERS AT JETS- The Jets have the better record, but they have also looked horrible as of late. Oh well, in a clash of crappy teams it often makes sense to go with the one with homefield advantage. JETS 20-17.
LIONS AT EAGLES- The Lions are explosive on offense, but they won't be explosive enough in frigid Philly weather, and their defense will struggle to slow down the Eagles' high octane offense. EAGLES 42-33.
DOLPHINS AT STEELERS- The Steelers at full strength should win this game, but they're not at full strength. The Steelers left Baltimore with a battered offensive line and a concussed star running back. The Steelers will be one dimensional without Le'Veon Bell. The question is whether or not the Dolphins will be able to handle Pittsburgh in December. Man this is a tough one. Eh, Big Ben still has his receiving weapons and homefield advantage. This could get ugly. STEELERS 20-14.
BILLS AT BUCCANEERS- The Buccaneers' only loss in the last 4 games was in Carolina to the Panthers, and that's totally understandable. The Bills just got done losing to the Falcons. BUCCANEERS 28-19.
CHIEFS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins are bad at football. CHIEFS 23-9.
VIKINGS AT RAVENS- The Ravens are nearly perfect at home this season and the Vikings are 0-5 on the road. Adrian Peterson has not run for 100 or more yards against a top 10 run defense this season, and the Ravens run defense is ranked 6th in the NFL. The Vikings defense is near the bottom of the league. Get em, birds. RAVENS 26-13.
TITANS AT BRONCOS- Manning plays poorly in cold weather, and the high in Denver today is reported to be 16 degrees. The low will be 2 degrees. The Broncos still have enough of a running game to help Manning out when he needs it and the Titans aren't good enough to win this game on the road. BRONCOS 24-14.
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Rams can sometimes surprise us all, but the Cardinals have actually put together an impressive season and appear to be heating up at the right time winning 4 out of their last 5 games. CARDINALS 27-20.
GIANTS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers turned the ball over at critical moments last week against the Bengals and ruined my hopes that the Ravens would gain ground on the AFC North leader. The Chargers, however, are still good enough to beat the Giants at home. CHARGERS 24-21.
SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS- The Seahawks are impossibly dominant in Seattle, but they've played some close games against on the road against lesser teams that the 49ers. The 49ers have won their last two games, but their passing attack is near the bottom of the league, and their receiving corps STILL doesn't scare the Seahawks. Russell Wilson is improving while Colin Kaepernick is regressing. SEAHAWKS 17-10.
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers are without a doubt one of the best teams in the NFL. Their defense may be the best in the league and Cam Newton has finally developed into the playmaker many of us thought he'd become after the blazing hot start to his rookie season. With that said, the Saints are undefeated at home this season and will be looking to bounce back after an embarrassing loss in Seattle last week. SAINTS 28-23.
COWBOYS AT BEARS- The Cowboys are too explosive on offense to lose this game. Josh McKown is playing well, but his team just lost to the Vikings last week, and that shows how pathetic the Bears' defense is at this point. COWBOYS 35-21.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Baltimore faces an interesting challenge today in regards to the environmental challenge that has presented itself as of late. We woke up this morning to a relatively light blanket of snow, but that snow continues to fall and won't likely be finished falling until after the Ravens game has ended. The Baltimore area is only supposed to receive 1-3" of snow total, but we also may see some precipitation in the form of freezing rain later in the afternoon and evening. It's anyone's best guess how this will effect the game, but conventional wisdom would suggest that it would favor the team that has more success running the ball, and that team would be assumed to be the Vikings.
If there's one thing that I've learned, however, it's that the Ravens don't shy away from the challenge of inclement weather or impossibly cold temperatures. The other thing to consider is that the Vikings defense is so poor that the Ravens just might have a successful day of running the football as well in the way they did against the Bears a month ago. Regardless, the Vikings are 0-5 on the road this season and despite the temperature of their hometown, the Vikings are a dome team and not as prepared to deal with these types of elements on the road as the Ravens.
We've come to the homestretch of 2013. This is the first week of the final quarter of the season, and some rather pivotal matchups lay before us as the league is so drenched with mediocrity that few teams have playoff spots locked up. The most important games to watch this week are the Colts-Bengals, Lions-Eagles, Dolphins-Steelers, Seahawks-49ers, Panthers-Saints, and Cowboys-Bears games. Every single one of these games could either have playoff implications or give simply give us a preview of things to come in the postseason. Let's take a look at the picks!
WEEK 14 NFL PREDICTIONS
COLTS AT BENGALS- The Bengals looked impressive coming off of their bye last week, and despite their record, the Colts simply aren't going to scare anyone now that Reggie Wayne is out for the season. This should be a fairly cold game, and that doesn't bode well for a dome team. BENGALS 26-17.
FALCONS AT PACKERS- I would say that the Packers can't win without Aaron Rodgers, but the Falcons have been impossibly bad this year and will have a hell of a time stopping Eddie Lacy...in fact they won't stop him. PACKERS 31-23.
BROWNS AT PATRIOTS- Caleb Hanie? The Browns have a great defense this season, but their offense has been crippled by QB turnover. I won't say that there's no chance the Browns win this one, but there's ALMOST no chance. PATRIOTS 37-16.
RAIDERS AT JETS- The Jets have the better record, but they have also looked horrible as of late. Oh well, in a clash of crappy teams it often makes sense to go with the one with homefield advantage. JETS 20-17.
LIONS AT EAGLES- The Lions are explosive on offense, but they won't be explosive enough in frigid Philly weather, and their defense will struggle to slow down the Eagles' high octane offense. EAGLES 42-33.
DOLPHINS AT STEELERS- The Steelers at full strength should win this game, but they're not at full strength. The Steelers left Baltimore with a battered offensive line and a concussed star running back. The Steelers will be one dimensional without Le'Veon Bell. The question is whether or not the Dolphins will be able to handle Pittsburgh in December. Man this is a tough one. Eh, Big Ben still has his receiving weapons and homefield advantage. This could get ugly. STEELERS 20-14.
BILLS AT BUCCANEERS- The Buccaneers' only loss in the last 4 games was in Carolina to the Panthers, and that's totally understandable. The Bills just got done losing to the Falcons. BUCCANEERS 28-19.
CHIEFS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins are bad at football. CHIEFS 23-9.
VIKINGS AT RAVENS- The Ravens are nearly perfect at home this season and the Vikings are 0-5 on the road. Adrian Peterson has not run for 100 or more yards against a top 10 run defense this season, and the Ravens run defense is ranked 6th in the NFL. The Vikings defense is near the bottom of the league. Get em, birds. RAVENS 26-13.
TITANS AT BRONCOS- Manning plays poorly in cold weather, and the high in Denver today is reported to be 16 degrees. The low will be 2 degrees. The Broncos still have enough of a running game to help Manning out when he needs it and the Titans aren't good enough to win this game on the road. BRONCOS 24-14.
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Rams can sometimes surprise us all, but the Cardinals have actually put together an impressive season and appear to be heating up at the right time winning 4 out of their last 5 games. CARDINALS 27-20.
GIANTS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers turned the ball over at critical moments last week against the Bengals and ruined my hopes that the Ravens would gain ground on the AFC North leader. The Chargers, however, are still good enough to beat the Giants at home. CHARGERS 24-21.
SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS- The Seahawks are impossibly dominant in Seattle, but they've played some close games against on the road against lesser teams that the 49ers. The 49ers have won their last two games, but their passing attack is near the bottom of the league, and their receiving corps STILL doesn't scare the Seahawks. Russell Wilson is improving while Colin Kaepernick is regressing. SEAHAWKS 17-10.
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers are without a doubt one of the best teams in the NFL. Their defense may be the best in the league and Cam Newton has finally developed into the playmaker many of us thought he'd become after the blazing hot start to his rookie season. With that said, the Saints are undefeated at home this season and will be looking to bounce back after an embarrassing loss in Seattle last week. SAINTS 28-23.
COWBOYS AT BEARS- The Cowboys are too explosive on offense to lose this game. Josh McKown is playing well, but his team just lost to the Vikings last week, and that shows how pathetic the Bears' defense is at this point. COWBOYS 35-21.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, December 5, 2013
SHOULD THE RAVENS BE AFRAID OF ADRIAN PETERSON?
Adrian Peterson had an absolutely astonishing 2012 season. He almost set a new single season rushing record and singlehandedly carried his otherwise unimpressive team to the playoffs. If his performance alone wasn't impressive enough, Peterson achieved all of that less than a year after tearing an ACL. Adrian Peterson hasn't reached the same level of success in 2013. His team has only won 3 games, and with just over 1200 rushing yards and only 4 more weeks of the regular season, Peterson likely won't get anywhere near the same rushing total he amassed last year.
Despite a comparatively lower degree of success this season, Adrian Peterson has still been one of the best running backs in the league. He's on pace for over 1600 rushing yards, and any other running back in the league would be thrilled to reach that number even just once over the course of their career. Peterson's efforts this season, however, have proven mostly in vain as his team hasn't performed well enough to even approach the possibility of a playoff berth. When the Vikings travel to Baltimore this weekend they will be met with an elite run defense (6th in the NFL). Should the Ravens be afraid of one of the league's most dynamic weapons or should a team that depends almost entirely on the production of one rushing weapon be afraid of an impressive Ravens defense in its own house?
To answer these questions we must first examine exactly how Adrian Peterson has performed against other run defenses of similar strength to that of the Ravens this season. The Vikings faced the Detroit Lions and their 3rd ranked run defense in Week 1. Peterson had a good game, but he was held under 100 yards rushing, and almost all of his yards came on one 78 yard run. The Lions kept Peterson mostly bottled up for the rest of the game. In Week 3 the Vikings faced the Browns and their 5th ranked run defense. Against Cleveland, Adrian Peterson was once again held under 100 rushing yards with an average of only 3.5 yards per carry. In Week 6 the Vikings faced the Panthers and their 2nd ranked run defense. Peterson rushed for a total of only 62 yards in that game, but it wasn't because he wasn't having success when he touched the football, and that brings us to an important point.
I could sit here and continue to list elite rushing defenses the Vikings faced and explain that Adrian Peterson failed to perform dominantly against them, but I'll save you the task of reading such tedious material. When facing top 10 defenses this season, Adrian Peterson has not rushed for 100 or more yards and his team has lost. The game against the Panthers, however, demonstrates exactly how to beat the Vikings even when Peterson is averaging 6.2 yards per carry as he did that day. The Panthers have possibly the best defense in the league this season, and it's a miracle the Vikings enjoyed even a little bit of success passing the ball the day they faced Carolina. The Panthers also scored first and enjoyed a 14-3 lead at halftime over the Vikings. It was because of this early lead that the Vikings elected to take the ball out of the hands of their only serious weapon and put it in the hands of Matt Cassel. Adrian Peterson finished with only 10 carries on the day and zero touchdowns.
The key for the Ravens to beating the Vikings should be to committing to stopping Adrian Peterson and scoring as much as possible in the first half against a Vikings defense that has allowed an average of 31.4 points per game on the road this season. If the Ravens attain and hold an early lead, then can force the Vikings to limit Adrian Peterson's carries and pass the ball with Matt Cassel and a group of less-than-threatening wide receivers. It's not that Peterson is no longer a great running back--he is--but the Vikings defense, passing attack, and running blocking are all simply not good enough this season to provide him with the support he needs to be as dominant as in 2012.
Peterson has had some great games this season, but none of them have been against elite run defenses. The Vikings haven't won a single game on the road, and they almost certainly won't break that streak in Baltimore. The Ravens will be coming off of a 10 days rest period and they finished their last game with a minimal number of injuries. Expect Baltimore to see the return of Dennis Pitta as well. Harbaugh stated that he's hopeful Pitta will play against the Vikings, and if he does so, the Vikings' porous defense will likely witness the awakening of a sleeping giant that is the Ravens offense. The addition of a top tier tight end would complete what is otherwise an offense saturated with weapons. I don't expect Pitta to play every snap as this will be his first game back, but he'll come in when the Ravens reach the redzone, and I wouldn't be surprised to even see him grab a touchdown pass. This should be one of the biggest wins of the season for the Ravens, and it will likely be an important springboard into a treacherous road trip to Detroit in the following week.
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- The Texans had a heartbreaking loss against the Patriots last week that showed that Houston can still stand toe to toe with a top team...they just can't win. The Jaguars were once thought to be the worst team in the NFL, but after their bye week Jacksonville has won almost all of their games. At home, the Jaguars should win this one against the CURRENT worst team in the league, but I also wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Texans came out swinging in this battle just for the sake of pride. JAGUARS 33-24.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Despite a comparatively lower degree of success this season, Adrian Peterson has still been one of the best running backs in the league. He's on pace for over 1600 rushing yards, and any other running back in the league would be thrilled to reach that number even just once over the course of their career. Peterson's efforts this season, however, have proven mostly in vain as his team hasn't performed well enough to even approach the possibility of a playoff berth. When the Vikings travel to Baltimore this weekend they will be met with an elite run defense (6th in the NFL). Should the Ravens be afraid of one of the league's most dynamic weapons or should a team that depends almost entirely on the production of one rushing weapon be afraid of an impressive Ravens defense in its own house?
To answer these questions we must first examine exactly how Adrian Peterson has performed against other run defenses of similar strength to that of the Ravens this season. The Vikings faced the Detroit Lions and their 3rd ranked run defense in Week 1. Peterson had a good game, but he was held under 100 yards rushing, and almost all of his yards came on one 78 yard run. The Lions kept Peterson mostly bottled up for the rest of the game. In Week 3 the Vikings faced the Browns and their 5th ranked run defense. Against Cleveland, Adrian Peterson was once again held under 100 rushing yards with an average of only 3.5 yards per carry. In Week 6 the Vikings faced the Panthers and their 2nd ranked run defense. Peterson rushed for a total of only 62 yards in that game, but it wasn't because he wasn't having success when he touched the football, and that brings us to an important point.
I could sit here and continue to list elite rushing defenses the Vikings faced and explain that Adrian Peterson failed to perform dominantly against them, but I'll save you the task of reading such tedious material. When facing top 10 defenses this season, Adrian Peterson has not rushed for 100 or more yards and his team has lost. The game against the Panthers, however, demonstrates exactly how to beat the Vikings even when Peterson is averaging 6.2 yards per carry as he did that day. The Panthers have possibly the best defense in the league this season, and it's a miracle the Vikings enjoyed even a little bit of success passing the ball the day they faced Carolina. The Panthers also scored first and enjoyed a 14-3 lead at halftime over the Vikings. It was because of this early lead that the Vikings elected to take the ball out of the hands of their only serious weapon and put it in the hands of Matt Cassel. Adrian Peterson finished with only 10 carries on the day and zero touchdowns.
The key for the Ravens to beating the Vikings should be to committing to stopping Adrian Peterson and scoring as much as possible in the first half against a Vikings defense that has allowed an average of 31.4 points per game on the road this season. If the Ravens attain and hold an early lead, then can force the Vikings to limit Adrian Peterson's carries and pass the ball with Matt Cassel and a group of less-than-threatening wide receivers. It's not that Peterson is no longer a great running back--he is--but the Vikings defense, passing attack, and running blocking are all simply not good enough this season to provide him with the support he needs to be as dominant as in 2012.
Peterson has had some great games this season, but none of them have been against elite run defenses. The Vikings haven't won a single game on the road, and they almost certainly won't break that streak in Baltimore. The Ravens will be coming off of a 10 days rest period and they finished their last game with a minimal number of injuries. Expect Baltimore to see the return of Dennis Pitta as well. Harbaugh stated that he's hopeful Pitta will play against the Vikings, and if he does so, the Vikings' porous defense will likely witness the awakening of a sleeping giant that is the Ravens offense. The addition of a top tier tight end would complete what is otherwise an offense saturated with weapons. I don't expect Pitta to play every snap as this will be his first game back, but he'll come in when the Ravens reach the redzone, and I wouldn't be surprised to even see him grab a touchdown pass. This should be one of the biggest wins of the season for the Ravens, and it will likely be an important springboard into a treacherous road trip to Detroit in the following week.
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- The Texans had a heartbreaking loss against the Patriots last week that showed that Houston can still stand toe to toe with a top team...they just can't win. The Jaguars were once thought to be the worst team in the NFL, but after their bye week Jacksonville has won almost all of their games. At home, the Jaguars should win this one against the CURRENT worst team in the league, but I also wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Texans came out swinging in this battle just for the sake of pride. JAGUARS 33-24.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, December 1, 2013
WEEK 13 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Ravens beat the Steelers on Thanksgiving night, and for that I am thankful. They did so despite interference from the Steelers' head coach, and they did so despite the continued absence of Dennis Pitta. The game was close (it shouldn't have been by the rules of the NFL), and the Ravens certainly made their share of mistakes. The Ravens, however, showed us all something that should give their coaches and fans a huge boost of confidence and hope for the final month of the regular season and beyond.
The Ravens certainly didn't put up a monstrous total of points on the Steelers defense. They didn't even rack up a ton of yards, but they scored early, scored often, and almost never punted the ball away. Joe Flacco led sustained drives that ate up clock and almost always ended in points. Some of those drives could have ended in MORE points were it not for inexcusable false start penalties by both Michael Oher and Torrey Smith. Despite those penalties, however, the Ravens were able to simply keep scoring and keep driving on the 10th ranked pass defense in the league. Flacco threw zero interceptions and completed 68.5% of his passes. Joe utilized the long ball early and often off of classic Flacco play-action fakes and finally looked to be his old accurate self deep down field.
The Ravens are now the current placeholders of the 6th seed of the playoffs. A lot can change in the next month as the Ravens have 3 formidable opponents out of the final 4 teams they play during that time period. The good news is that 2 of their final 4 opponents will travel to Baltimore to face Joe and company, and the other two teams the Ravens play on the road have displayed major flaws lately that should leave them vulnerable to a surging Baltimore team that has won 3 of its last 4 games. At 6-6 the Ravens likely will have to accumulate 3 more wins to secure at least a wildcard spot, and winning all 4 of their remaining games would guarantee them a division win as it would mean a tiebreaker over the Bengals even if they also possess a 10-6 record at that point. Winning out the rest of the season certainly isn't consistent with the rest of the Ravens' season, but with the return of a premier tight end to the roster it also certainly isn't a far fetched idea.
The Ravens have an extended period from their Thanksgiving win until their next game, and that will give their players time to rest and thoroughly prepare before facing a mostly inept Vikings team next Sunday at home. I've read reports that Dennis Pitta will almost certainly return to the field next weekend, and that will give coaches, players, and fans a chance to see just how dominant this team can be before heading to Detroit the following week. My hopes are renewed, and my confidence in this team is as high as it has been since last post-season. Dennis Pitta is the missing piece to this team's puzzle. With a consistently high level of tight end play the Ravens will be absolutely one of the most complete teams in the NFL. Their offensive line is still not run-blocking well enough, but that may matter less and less with Pitta as a threat over the middle and in the red zone. Consider for a moment the many impressive facets of this team: the offense is full of speedy receiving weapons, the defense is packed with fierce pass rushers and talented defensive backs that have shut down many of the league's top receivers, the special teams units are arguably the best in the league with an automatic Justin Tucker and an explosive Jacoby Jones, and the offensive line is finally giving Flacco time to fully utilize his cannon of an arm. With Pitta finally back, can you think of a more complete team in the AFC? I certainly cannot.
This Sunday will be relaxing fun for Baltimore football fans. Good triumphed over evil, and Ravens fans can kick back and watch other conference rivals beat up on one another. There are a few notable games that fans will likely pay attention to just for sheer entertainment, but there is really only one matchup which will have a direct effect on the Ravens chances of making the post season. The AFC North-leading Bengals will face the Chargers in San Diego at 4:25 EST. The Bengals have a flawless home record, but they're 2-4 on the road this season and lost their last two road contests to the Dolphins and Ravens. The Bengals will be well rested coming off of a bye week, but the injuries that have truly affected Cincinnati can't be fixed with a week of rest. The loss of Leon Hall and Geno Atkins has undoubtedly changed the Bengals from a team that was capable of winning close games to a team that only loses close games. The Chargers haven't won many games in the last month, but their competition has been tough, and they managed to upset a Chiefs team with a near perfect record last week in Kansas City.
In other Chiefs related new, the Broncos are headed for Kansas City on Sunday. This will be a rematch of the Chiefs-Broncos game in Denver. The Chiefs will be at home, but they'll be missing some key pieces to their once-dominant defense that may make Peyton Manning's day a hell of a lot easier. Manning's old team, the Colts, will face their division rival Titans in what could ultimately either be a turning point for the Titans in their bid to beat out the Colts for the AFC South title. It could also simply be the game where the Colts sweep the Titans and effectively solidify their lead on the rest of their division for the remainder of the regular season. Either way, this game should reveal a lot about whether or not the Colts can be a serious playoff contender and win the tough games they SHOULD win when the division title is on the line. Without further ado, let's take a look at this week's predictions!
WEEK 13 NFL PREDICTIONS
JAGUARS AT BROWNS- After their bye week, the Jaguars are 2-1. They beat a reasonably competitive Titans team and a slumping Texans team. The Browns are back to starting Brandon Weeden, and that could mean a much easier day for a horrible Jaguars defense. The Browns defense, however, is still quite strong, and I don't expect Weeden and company to turn the ball over nearly as much as they did a week ago against the Steelers. Both of the Jags' wins have been on the road thus far, but they won't win in Cleveland. The Browns have too many weapons despite their inept quarterback. BROWNS 23-21.
TITANS AT COLTS- The Colts have been embarrassed in a couple of recent games, but they beat the Titans in Tennessee and they should beat them Indy. COLTS 31-24.
BEARS AT VIKINGS- BEARS 28-13.
DOLPHINS AT JETS- I think the Dolphins are the better team, but they'll have trouble winning in this weather in New Jersey. The Jets will win this one, but it won't be enough to reignite their chances of making the playoffs. JETS 20-17.
CARDINALS AT EAGLES- I've been impressed with the Cardinals lately. They made a mockery of the Colts recently, and have won 6 out of their last 8 games. They even beat the Panthers earlier this season. The Eagles, on the other hand, have won their last 3 games and will be coming off of a bye week and playing at home. I believe the Cardinals are a more complete team, but their defense won't be enough to stop an elite Eagles offense. Nick Foles has yet to throw and interception and currently has as many touchdown passes as last season's Super Bowl MVP. This will be a shootout. EAGLES 33-28.
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- PANTHERS 24-17.
PATRIOTS AT TEXANS- PATRIOTS 35-17.
FALCONS AT BILLS- There is no reason to believe the Falcons can go on the road and beat even a disappointing Bills team. BILLS 21-13.
RAMS AT 49ERS- The 49ers already beat the Rams in St. Louis. They'll beat the Rams in San Francisco with help from a returning Michael Crabtree. 49ERS 38-20.
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- The Chiefs will be missing too much on defense to get to Peyton Manning this weekend. The Broncos aren't as dominant as they once seemed, but the Chiefs lost at home to the Chargers last week, they'll lose to the Broncos this week. BRONCOS 30-19.
BENGALS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are hot off of a win in Kansas City and they're quite good at home this season. Phillip Rivers is going to light up a Bengals defense without it's best cornerback and pass rusher. Andy Dalton should have a good amount of success through the air, but the Chargers will simply outpace the Bengals in the scoring department. CHARGERS 42-35.
GIANTS AT REDSKINS- Both of these teams have been essentially eliminated from playoff contention. I wonder if the Redskins will simply bench RG3? The Redskins have scored less and less each week for the last 3 weeks. The Giants have won 4 of their last 5 games. GIANTS 27-21.
SAINTS AT SEAHAWKS- This is a battle of two teams that enjoy some of the biggest homefield advantages in the league. The Seahawks just lost a crucial defensive back because of drug policy violations, but their defense is still strong enough that they should be able to edge the Saints thousands of miles away from Nawlins. SEAHAWKS 23-20.
RELAX, RAVENS FANS!
JOE AND THE BOYS GOT IT DONE!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Ravens certainly didn't put up a monstrous total of points on the Steelers defense. They didn't even rack up a ton of yards, but they scored early, scored often, and almost never punted the ball away. Joe Flacco led sustained drives that ate up clock and almost always ended in points. Some of those drives could have ended in MORE points were it not for inexcusable false start penalties by both Michael Oher and Torrey Smith. Despite those penalties, however, the Ravens were able to simply keep scoring and keep driving on the 10th ranked pass defense in the league. Flacco threw zero interceptions and completed 68.5% of his passes. Joe utilized the long ball early and often off of classic Flacco play-action fakes and finally looked to be his old accurate self deep down field.
The Ravens are now the current placeholders of the 6th seed of the playoffs. A lot can change in the next month as the Ravens have 3 formidable opponents out of the final 4 teams they play during that time period. The good news is that 2 of their final 4 opponents will travel to Baltimore to face Joe and company, and the other two teams the Ravens play on the road have displayed major flaws lately that should leave them vulnerable to a surging Baltimore team that has won 3 of its last 4 games. At 6-6 the Ravens likely will have to accumulate 3 more wins to secure at least a wildcard spot, and winning all 4 of their remaining games would guarantee them a division win as it would mean a tiebreaker over the Bengals even if they also possess a 10-6 record at that point. Winning out the rest of the season certainly isn't consistent with the rest of the Ravens' season, but with the return of a premier tight end to the roster it also certainly isn't a far fetched idea.
The Ravens have an extended period from their Thanksgiving win until their next game, and that will give their players time to rest and thoroughly prepare before facing a mostly inept Vikings team next Sunday at home. I've read reports that Dennis Pitta will almost certainly return to the field next weekend, and that will give coaches, players, and fans a chance to see just how dominant this team can be before heading to Detroit the following week. My hopes are renewed, and my confidence in this team is as high as it has been since last post-season. Dennis Pitta is the missing piece to this team's puzzle. With a consistently high level of tight end play the Ravens will be absolutely one of the most complete teams in the NFL. Their offensive line is still not run-blocking well enough, but that may matter less and less with Pitta as a threat over the middle and in the red zone. Consider for a moment the many impressive facets of this team: the offense is full of speedy receiving weapons, the defense is packed with fierce pass rushers and talented defensive backs that have shut down many of the league's top receivers, the special teams units are arguably the best in the league with an automatic Justin Tucker and an explosive Jacoby Jones, and the offensive line is finally giving Flacco time to fully utilize his cannon of an arm. With Pitta finally back, can you think of a more complete team in the AFC? I certainly cannot.
This Sunday will be relaxing fun for Baltimore football fans. Good triumphed over evil, and Ravens fans can kick back and watch other conference rivals beat up on one another. There are a few notable games that fans will likely pay attention to just for sheer entertainment, but there is really only one matchup which will have a direct effect on the Ravens chances of making the post season. The AFC North-leading Bengals will face the Chargers in San Diego at 4:25 EST. The Bengals have a flawless home record, but they're 2-4 on the road this season and lost their last two road contests to the Dolphins and Ravens. The Bengals will be well rested coming off of a bye week, but the injuries that have truly affected Cincinnati can't be fixed with a week of rest. The loss of Leon Hall and Geno Atkins has undoubtedly changed the Bengals from a team that was capable of winning close games to a team that only loses close games. The Chargers haven't won many games in the last month, but their competition has been tough, and they managed to upset a Chiefs team with a near perfect record last week in Kansas City.
In other Chiefs related new, the Broncos are headed for Kansas City on Sunday. This will be a rematch of the Chiefs-Broncos game in Denver. The Chiefs will be at home, but they'll be missing some key pieces to their once-dominant defense that may make Peyton Manning's day a hell of a lot easier. Manning's old team, the Colts, will face their division rival Titans in what could ultimately either be a turning point for the Titans in their bid to beat out the Colts for the AFC South title. It could also simply be the game where the Colts sweep the Titans and effectively solidify their lead on the rest of their division for the remainder of the regular season. Either way, this game should reveal a lot about whether or not the Colts can be a serious playoff contender and win the tough games they SHOULD win when the division title is on the line. Without further ado, let's take a look at this week's predictions!
WEEK 13 NFL PREDICTIONS
JAGUARS AT BROWNS- After their bye week, the Jaguars are 2-1. They beat a reasonably competitive Titans team and a slumping Texans team. The Browns are back to starting Brandon Weeden, and that could mean a much easier day for a horrible Jaguars defense. The Browns defense, however, is still quite strong, and I don't expect Weeden and company to turn the ball over nearly as much as they did a week ago against the Steelers. Both of the Jags' wins have been on the road thus far, but they won't win in Cleveland. The Browns have too many weapons despite their inept quarterback. BROWNS 23-21.
TITANS AT COLTS- The Colts have been embarrassed in a couple of recent games, but they beat the Titans in Tennessee and they should beat them Indy. COLTS 31-24.
BEARS AT VIKINGS- BEARS 28-13.
DOLPHINS AT JETS- I think the Dolphins are the better team, but they'll have trouble winning in this weather in New Jersey. The Jets will win this one, but it won't be enough to reignite their chances of making the playoffs. JETS 20-17.
CARDINALS AT EAGLES- I've been impressed with the Cardinals lately. They made a mockery of the Colts recently, and have won 6 out of their last 8 games. They even beat the Panthers earlier this season. The Eagles, on the other hand, have won their last 3 games and will be coming off of a bye week and playing at home. I believe the Cardinals are a more complete team, but their defense won't be enough to stop an elite Eagles offense. Nick Foles has yet to throw and interception and currently has as many touchdown passes as last season's Super Bowl MVP. This will be a shootout. EAGLES 33-28.
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- PANTHERS 24-17.
PATRIOTS AT TEXANS- PATRIOTS 35-17.
FALCONS AT BILLS- There is no reason to believe the Falcons can go on the road and beat even a disappointing Bills team. BILLS 21-13.
RAMS AT 49ERS- The 49ers already beat the Rams in St. Louis. They'll beat the Rams in San Francisco with help from a returning Michael Crabtree. 49ERS 38-20.
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- The Chiefs will be missing too much on defense to get to Peyton Manning this weekend. The Broncos aren't as dominant as they once seemed, but the Chiefs lost at home to the Chargers last week, they'll lose to the Broncos this week. BRONCOS 30-19.
BENGALS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are hot off of a win in Kansas City and they're quite good at home this season. Phillip Rivers is going to light up a Bengals defense without it's best cornerback and pass rusher. Andy Dalton should have a good amount of success through the air, but the Chargers will simply outpace the Bengals in the scoring department. CHARGERS 42-35.
GIANTS AT REDSKINS- Both of these teams have been essentially eliminated from playoff contention. I wonder if the Redskins will simply bench RG3? The Redskins have scored less and less each week for the last 3 weeks. The Giants have won 4 of their last 5 games. GIANTS 27-21.
SAINTS AT SEAHAWKS- This is a battle of two teams that enjoy some of the biggest homefield advantages in the league. The Seahawks just lost a crucial defensive back because of drug policy violations, but their defense is still strong enough that they should be able to edge the Saints thousands of miles away from Nawlins. SEAHAWKS 23-20.
RELAX, RAVENS FANS!
JOE AND THE BOYS GOT IT DONE!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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