The Ravens have a chance to give a wonderful Christmas present to their fanbase on Sunday. The Patriots are riddled with injuries to key starters including their most integral offensive weapon aside of Brady himself, Rob Gronkowski. The Ravens, meanwhile, are much healthier overall and received a boost in their own receiving personnel with the recent return of Dennis Pitta. Baltimore has also seen a return to health for Haloti Ngata and Marshal Yanda, both of whom put on big physical displays of strength on Monday night against the Lions. Even Ray Rice finally got back into his groove with a 4.7 yards per carry performance against the 3rd ranked run defense in the league. It's as though everything is falling into place for the Ravens just at the right time. Well, almost everything.
Joe Flacco will likely wear a knee brace on his left leg this Sunday after having taken a rather brutal helmet to the side of his knee against the Lions. I would like to say this won't affect #5 much, but his mobility has actually been one of his strong points this season. Joe has been able to extend plays with his legs, and that has been vitally important in a season that has seen uneven pass protection for the Super Bowl MVP. Fortunately for Joe, the Ravens offensive line has come together as of late in the pass protection department. Run blocking still isn't consistently effective, but it's good enough to have allowed Ray Rice to have back to back games with 50+ rushing yards. I know that doesn't seem particularly impressive, but for this season it's the first time that has happened.
The Patriots rank 31st in the league in run defense with Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo out for the rest of the season. That isn't just great news for Ray Rice; it's also great news for Joe Flacco. A successful day of running the football against the Patriots will help to take pressure off of Joe Flacco and allow him to sit in the pocket more easily to make throws. The Ravens offensive line stood up well to some impressive defensive lines during their recent 4 game winning streak, and thankfully the Patriots defensive linemen are nowhere near the same caliber without Wilfork in the middle. This should allow the Ravens to control the clock when they need to, and maybe we'll even see them run the ball successfully in the redzone with Vonta Leach as a lead blocker in goal line situations (haven't seen much of Leach lately).
The Ravens offense should have success against a lackluster Patriots defense at home on Sunday. The Patriots offense, however, is going to have its hands full. The Ravens defense has gone up against a host of the best wide receivers in the game this season and hasn't allowed a single one to have a dominant game. The Ravens secondary limited Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and DeAndre Hopkins to under 100 yards receiving for each. It's not that Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola aren't talented receivers, it's just that neither one is a mismatch in size or speed for the Ravens defensive backs. In other words, if Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, and A.J. Green don't have phenomenal success against the Ravens, don't expect the Edelman and Amendola to have a big day.
If the Patriots think they'll be able to run the ball to make up for the absence of Gronkowski, they should think again. I'm sure they'll have at least SOME success running the ball at times, but the Ravens have the 7th ranked run defense in the league, and it should be a good match for the Patriots 12th ranked rushing attack. Part of what made the Patriots running game click earlier this season was the blocking of Rob Gronkowski. In Gronk's absence, expect the Patriots to lean more on their short passing game as both Edelman and Amendola have elite stats when it comes to yards after the catch this season. Brady will definitely utilize his lightning-quick release to get the ball into the hands of those two play-makers. The big question is whether or not Edelman and Amendola will be able to get much yardage while being covered by Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith.
One of the biggest factors that should make Tom Brady's day long and frustrating is the pressure he'll see from the Ravens pass rushers. Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil will undoubtedly harass Brady from the edges, but as I mentioned before, Haloti Ngata has appeared particularly dominant recently. The Ravens defensive line rotation has enough disruptive force to collapse the pocket on a regular enough basis to keep Brady from making solid down-field throws. The Patriots left tackle, Nate Solder, returned to practice yesterday, but don't expect him to have an easy time against the 2011 defensive player of the year.
Nothing I've said here should be shocking or surprising to most reading it. The Patriots are hurt badly, and the Ravens are a team hitting its stride and playing at home this week. Most people are predicting a close game. I am not one of those people. The Ravens stomped a more impressive Patriots team last postseason in Foxborough without Gronkowski, and that was WITH Wilfork, Aaron Hernandez, and Jerod Mayo. The Patriots offense is simply not good enough to put more than 20-21 points on the Ravens in Baltimore, and the Patriots defense is too depleted to hold the Ravens under 20 points in Baltimore. It's the NFL, so anything can happen and nothing is guaranteed, but this should be a solid win for the Ravens and a merry Christmas for the people of Baltimore.
WEEK 16 NFL PREDICTIONS
COLTS AT CHIEFS- The Colts have already clinched their division, but they also want desperately to get a higher seed in the playoffs to get a bye week and homefield advantage. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are quite strong at home, and will be playing their hearts out in hopes that the Broncos suffer one final unlikely defeat in Houston with Wes Welker out for the next two weeks. A motivated Chiefs team at home is far better than an unconvincing Colts team on the road that has already clinched its division. Oh yeah, and Jamaal Charles is a beast. CHIEFS 33-21.
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- The Bills won the first matchup between these two teams, but Tannehill's protection has increased dramatically since that first meeting. The Bills should still be able to have a good day running the ball and will be able to get pressure on the Dolphins QB at times, but the Dolphins are playing too well (even in the cold) recently to lose this game. DOLPHINS 27-20.
VIKINGS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are leading their division and appeared to have the AFC North locked up until recently. The Vikings, on the other hand, are not playing for a playoff berth, but Matt Cassel has been remarkably impressive since taking over the starting QB spot. The Vikings blasted the Eagles last week, and they did so without Adrian Peterson or Toby Gerhart. Could it be that this team has finally found its rhythm? I think so. The Bengals are beat up in their secondary and won't match up well against impressive Vikings receivers. This should be a high scoring game. VIKINGS 38-36.
BUCCANEERS AT RAMS- This game doesn't really mean much, but both of these teams have looked impressive towards the end of this season. Going with the home team on this one. RAMS 21-17.
BROWNS AT JETS- The Browns haven't had a great season because of a revolving door of quarterbacks. They did, however, almost beat the patriots two weeks ago, and they have talent all over the field. The Jets have been incredibly inconsistent, also because of quarterback issues, and struggle against teams with elite defenses and the Browns possess one. BROWNS 28-16.
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins have little motivation other than pride to win this game while the Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives. COWBOYS 35-21.
SAINTS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers are much better at home than the Saints are on the road. Not much to this one. PANTHERS 30-19.
TITANS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have played well recently. I think they'll win this one at home. JAGUARS 20-17.
BRONCOS AT TEXANS- I would be thrilled if the Texans somehow pulled an upset here, but this is one of the worst teams in the league against one of the best. Peyton Manning will play well in a warm environment, no questions asked. BRONCOS 42-23.
GIANTS AT LIONS- LIONS 31-14.
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS- The Cardinals have had a nice season, but they're not nearly good enough to be the first team to win in Seattle...I don't know if any team is good enough for that. SEAHAWKS 30-20.
STEELERS AT PACKERS- The Steelers are clinging an incredibly small amount of hope that the Ravens and Dolphins and Chargers will all lose out so that Roethlisberger and company get to the playoffs. The only problem is that the Dolphins will already have won or lost to the Bills by the time the Steelers take the field. If the Dolphins have won by that point, the Steelers have no shot at the playoffs, and it would behoove them to sit their starters...unless they just want to play for pride or something silly like that. This is tough because I believe the Dolphins WILL win, but the Packers won't be playing with Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers are better than the Packers without Rodgers and maybe they'll relish the chance to play spoiler to the team that beat them in the Super Bowl 3 seasons ago. STEELERS 28-21.
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- CHARGERS 33-17.
PATRIOTS AT RAVENS- The Patriots can't win this game with the defense and receiving weapons they have currently at their disposal. The Ravens are nearly unbeatable at home, and they are a healthier, more complete team now than in the first half of this season. Aqip Talib is a great corner, but the Ravens have too many receiving weapons for that to matter all that much. I expect a big day from Bernard Pierce. RAVENS 27-17.
BEARS AT EAGLES- This is an interesting matchup because it features two impressive offenses with little defense to speak of on either team. I don't know if there's necessarily a statistical reason to back this up, but I've been more impressed with the Bears this season. With that said, the Bears haven't been great on the road. I'm going with the home team in a shootout. EAGLES 33-28.
FALCONS AT 49ERS- I bet when the NFL originally scheduled this game for a Monday night they assumed it would be a showdown between to NFC powerhouses. HA. 49ERS 35-20.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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