There's no way around it. The Ravens have only won a single road game this season. Joe Flacco and company have certainly ramped up their level of play as of late with three consecutive wins, but all three of those wins took place in M&T back Stadium where the Ravens are 6-1 on the season. Are the Ravens truly that much worse on the road? Or could it simply be that the Ravens were only a few plays away from winning almost every road game they played this year? I've spoken to many who believe that Detroit will be an extremely difficult team to beat on the road because of their high octane passing offense and downright mean pass rushers. Others, however, have pointed to the Lions' recent struggles and their poor pass defense as a reason why the Ravens should thrive--especially with the return of Joe Flacco's favorite target. Both the Ravens and Lions played their respective games last weekend in driving snow, and it is for this reason that we can't use statistics from those games to help predict the outcome of next Monday night's inevitably epic showdown between playoff contenders. Instead we must look further back into the season and determine which games and statistics are truly relevant to predict how the Ravens will fare when they travel to the Motor City on Monday.
The Lions have lost three out of their last 4 games, and they haven't all been road losses or losses to impressive teams. In Week 12, for example, the Lions lost at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers...and the Bucs are awful. The Lions, in fact, also lost to the Bengals at home in Week 7. The Lions' home record isn't bad at 4-2, but it's safe to say that the Lions don't dominate competitive teams at home. Detroit, after all, only has one home win over a reasonably competitive team, the Chicago Bears, and the rest of their home wins have come against teams that currently possess 4 wins or less or are missing their starting quarterback, as is the case with the Packers.
So what did the teams that beat the Lions at home have in common? At first glance, the Bengals and Buccaneers don't appear to have much in common. The Bengals lead their division with 10 wins, and the Buccaneers' season is basically meaningless at this point with a lowly 4 wins. All 4 of the Buccaneers' wins, however, have come in the last 5 weeks, and 6 weeks ago the Buccaneers lost an overtime thriller to the mighty Seahawks by only 3 points IN SEATTLE! So what do the Bengals and Buccaneers have in common? That's simple: defense. The Bengals and Buccaneers have allowed 20 and 20.2 points per game over their last 5 games respectively. The Buccaneers possess a top 10 run defense, but Darrelle Revis has re-emerged as a dominant cornerback, and that has made the a difference over the last 5 weeks.
The problem, however, is that both the Bengals and Buccaneers allowed a sizable amount of passing yards when they played in Detroit. Matthew Stafford threw for 357 passing yards against the Bengals and 297 yards against the Buccaneers. You might be wondering how on earth these teams managed to win. The Buccaneers won in a starkly different fashion than the Bengals, but both methods of winning reflect season-long vulnerabilities that have plagued the Lions. The Bengals took advantage of the first major weakness of the Lions: pass defense. The Lions currently rank 25th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, and despite Stafford's impressive amount of passing yards against the Bengals, the Lions lost because Andy Dalton threw for even MORE passing yards (372) that day.
The Buccaneers didn't amass an impressive number of rushing or passing yards on the Lions, but they did take advantage of a major problem with Detroit's offense that has presented itself frequently as of late. The Buccaneers intercepted Matthew Stafford 4 times to give themselves short fields from which to score. Stafford has thrown 10 interceptions in his last 6 games, and the Lions defense isn't strong enough to keep opposing teams from scoring off of turnovers.
The Ravens haven't forced turnovers at nearly the same rate as they had for many years before this season, but the Baltimore secondary is full of players that have displayed the ability to find the ball. Lardarius Webb still hasn't returned to complete full strength coming off of his most recent ACL tear. Webb, however, received guidance for years from the one-great Ed Reed which helped to turn #21 into one of the best ball-hawking corners in the league. Jimmy Smith doesn't have staggering number of picks, but he seems to come up with timely and sometimes acrobatic interceptions that demonstrate his impressive hands and athleticism. James Ihedigbo certainly showed his ball-hawking skills this season with two impressive interceptions against the Bengals, and Corey Graham has 3 picks on the year as well. The only secondary starter without a pick this season has been Matt Elam, but it's only a matter of time until the talented young guy ends that drought.
Matthew Stafford is not the only quarterback playing on Monday night who has turned the ball over with frequency this season. Joe Flacco has actually thrown 3 more interceptions than Stafford including 3 last week against the Vikings. Flacco's rise in interceptions this season can be attributed to a weakened protection in the first half of the season and an incredible amount of turnover and lack of chemistry with his receiving corps. The Ravens offensive line has protected Joe much better recently and Flacco's chemistry and familiarity with his receiving corps has improved tremendously. The defensive line of the Lions is generally regarded as mean, dirty, and dominant, but Lions have only notched 27 sacks this season (10 less than the Ravens).
The big change in the Ravens offense from what fans saw earlier this season will undoubtedly be the presence of Dennis Pitta. Pitta performed in spectacular fashion last Sunday, and he suffered no setbacks to his injury. I fully expect Pitta to have another strong day against a poor Lions pass defense on Monday. Pitta's presence should both allow the Ravens offense to sustain drives with his clutch catches on 3rd downs and allow the likes of Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones, and Marlon Brown to get open far more easily. The Lions will have a difficult time deciding who they want to double team as the Ravens possess speed, height, and hands at every single receiving position now that Pitta is back. I've said it many times, but I'll say it again. Pitta's presence should lead to increased production from Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce as the tight end will draw linebackers into pass coverage over the middle and take away their ability to commit to defending the run.
The Ravens offense has ranked quite poorly this season, but that was in large part because they were missing serious production from the tight end position. Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson occasionally made plays, but they did so with such little consistency and frequency that neither ever fully gained Flacco's trust as a sure-handed security blanket to ensure the continuation of critical drives. Having consistent tight end play is almost certainly what would have changed many of the Ravens' narrow road losses into wins this season. Fortunately for Baltimore, they're getting back this critical piece to their offense just in time for the toughest stretch of their schedule with the possibility of a playoff berth in the balance. Every single one of the teams the Ravens face in the remainder of the regular season is entirely beatable, and Baltimore have its guns loaded with #88 back on the turf.
Now just because the Lions lost to the Buccaneers and Bengals doesn't necessarily mean they aren't capable of putting up an impressive performance against the Ravens. They still have offensive weapons all over the field and some defensive lineman that should put pressure on Joe Flacco. The question isn't whether or not the Lions can score on the Ravens, because they will. The question is how much the Lions can score on the Ravens and whether or not the Lions can stop the Ravens from putting up a greater score. I will not pretend to have a good idea of who will win or what the score might be at this point as these teams don't play until Monday. It's imperative that we pay attention to the injury report for each of these teams as players such as Reggie Bush and Elvis Dumervil may return to the field. In the meantime, I'll continue to crunch numbers and compile stats about other facets of the Ravens and Lions before making my prediction.
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- Peyton Manning certainly patted himself on the back for beating a team with a losing record at home in cold weather. Bravo, Peyton. If you can do it when it truly counts in the postseason then I'll change my opinion of your physical limitations. With that said, the Broncos have yet another test in the cold weather, and this time it'll be against the Chargers in Denver. Wes Welker is out with a concussion, but the Broncos have enough receiving weapons between Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, and Demariyus Thomas in order to win this game. The Chargers aren't equipped to win in this weather, but hopefully this will be a quarterbacks duel and things will stay interesting. BRONCOS 38-33.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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