Okay, so last week's game against the Patriots did not go as many expected. It turns out that Joe Flacco's knee was more of a limiting factor than I and most of the rest of the world assumed. The Patriots also proved a far more dominant foe even without Rob Gronkowski than anyone in the Ravens organization could have predicted. I usually give the Patriots adequate credit, but it appears as though I didn't give them nearly enough of it prior to Week 16's beatdown in Baltimore. It's certainly no secret at this point that the Ravens' most recent home loss took the Ravens out of the driver's seat for the final playoff spot. Now they have to hope and pray for a Dolphins or Chargers loss while finding a way to win on the road in a stadium in which no team other than the Bengals has won this season. The odds are against the Ravens, but there seem to be few years where that is NOT the case at one point or another.
The Ravens usually relish the chance to win against all odds. They seem to thrive on being thought of as an underdog because of their tendency to win football games in a fashion not popular amongst most NFL fans. Baltimore has had a history of being a hard-nosed defensive team with a power running game and a steadfast fieldgoal kicker. Most of those things are true for this year with the exception of one. The Ravens have never found a rhythm running the football this season. Their offensive line's inability to open up running lanes is mostly to blame, but Ray Rice's nagging injuries have unquestionably played a significant role. The lack of a power running game has meant an inability to punch the ball into the endzone or simply convert 3rd or 4th downs in short yardage situations. A lack of a running game has meant little balance in the Ravens offense and has allowed opposing teams to turn the Ravens into a one-dimensional opponent that has difficulty consistently sustaining drives and scoring touchdowns.
It's not as though the Ravens haven't done well recently. Before last weekend they had won 5 out of their last 6 games. If they manage to win on Sunday they will have won 6 out of their last 8 games of the season. That would be fantastic considering that Baltimore only won 3 of their first 8 games. Finishing with 9 wins may simply not be enough to get the Ravens into the playoffs because of strange tie-breaking rules when there is a three-way tie at the end of the regular season. The Ravens, for example, have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins because of their Week 5 road win in Miami. The Ravens also hold a tiebreaker over the Chargers as the Ravens have more conference wins than Phillip Rivers and company. Because all three teams have the same record at 8-7, however, the Ravens' head-to-head win over the Dolphins no longer applies as the team with the most conference wins automatically gets the final wildcard spot in the event of a three-way tie. It sucks...I know, but rules are rules, and it doesn't mean the Ravens can't still get into the playoffs.
The Ravens' first priority is beating a Bengals team that hasn't lost at home this season, but will be without a significant number of starters this weekend. The Bengals haven't had star defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, or star cornerback, Leon Hall, for many weeks now. The Bengals have, nevertheless, continued to win games. Cincinnati, however, will also likely be without yet another starting cornerback since Terrance Newman won't suit up this weekend. Cincinnati took another hit to their defensive line depth as second string defensive tackle, Devon Still, has been ruled out with a back injury. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bengals will be without their young and talented tight end, Tyler Eifert. What has yet to be seen is if their other tight end, Jermaine Gresham, actually sees significant playing time on Sunday. Gresham is listed as questionable after practicing on a limited basis earlier in the week, but he didn't practice on Thursday or Friday and could be sidelined with a hamstring injury that may be more serious than originally assumed. If Gresham does, in fact, NOT play on Sunday then the Bengals will have only one healthy tight end left on their depth chart, 3rd stringer Alex Smith.
There's no question that the Bengals are banged up. The biggest question is whether or not the Bengals' lack of healthy defensive lineman, healthy cornerbacks, and healthy tight ends will be as significant as the injuries with which the Ravens are currently dealing. Joe Flacco's sprained MCL clearly affected his confidence, mobility, and accuracy last Sunday. Will Joe's knee be any better this weekend? It's tough to say until he takes the field. Flacco isn't the only injured starter on the Ravens offense. Ray Rice has dealt with a quadriceps injury all week, and Torrey Smith has had hamstring issues since the Patriots game. Possibly more significant than Rice's or Smith's injuries is Gino Gradkowski's knee injury. Gradkowski hasn't been anywhere as good as his predecessor, Matt Birk, but he is the best center the Ravens have at the moment, and he'd need to be replaced by the Ravens current starting left guard, A.Q. Shipley. The major problem with shifting A.Q. Shipley to center isn't that A.Q. Shipley would be at the center position. The REAL problem is that Jah "the human turnstyle" Reid would be brought in to take Shipley's place at left guard. Ravens fans must PRAY that this scenario is avoided as it would mean a long day for an already beaten and battered Joe Flacco.
I won't pretend to be confident about the Ravens chances of winning this weekend. They have just as many injury issues as the Bengals (if not more), and they can't run the ball well even with a totally healthy squad. The Bengals simply put up too many point at home this season, and that may be more than the Ravens can keep up with considering their own lack of offensive firepower. Even if the Ravens find a rhythm in the passing game because of thin Bengals cornerback depth and somehow pull out a win, the Ravens still need to count on a Jets team that hasn't won a road game since beating the lowly Falcons in Week 5. The Chargers will likely be playing a Chiefs team with a significant number of starters on the bench resting for the playoffs, so the Ravens can't count on a Chargers loss. The two things that give me the most hope that the Ravens will make the playoffs are the fact that the Ravens held the Bengals to 10 points for almost an entire 4 quarters earlier this season and the fact that the Dolphins looked horrendous last week. How the Dolphins fared on the road against the Bills may not matter, however, as the Dolphins beat the Jets down hard in New Jersey only 4 weeks ago. Maybe the Jets defensive line will find a way to limit the Dolphins ground attack and force Tannehill into bad throws. Maybe one or two of those throws will find their way into the hands of a Jets defensive back, and maybe--just maybe--those hands will belong to Ed Reed.
WEEK 17 NFL PREDICTIONS
JAGUARS AT COLTS- The Colts have beat most of the most dominant teams in the league this year, but have lost some surprising games against mediocre and bad teams. This trend may bode well for the playoffs, but it may mean trouble against a Jaguars team that has seen far more success in the second half of the season. I have faith, however, that the Colts will be motivated and effective enough at home to beat the Jaguars in an effort to secure the 3 seed in the playoffs. If the Ravens get into the postseason, they'll likely travel to Indy to face the Colts in the first round for the second time in a row. COLTS 31-20.
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons looked as though they were about to beat the 49ers last week until Matt Ryan forced a throw that ended up being picked off by Navarro Bowman and taken back for a game-sealing touchdown. That was still an impressive effort for a Falcons team with almost no wins this season, but they're simply not good enough to beat the Panthers even at home. PANTHERS 23-21.
RAVENS AT BENGALS- I simply can't predict a Ravens victory in Cincy this weekend with an injured Joe Flacco. If Joe can't muster more than 7 points against the Patriots defense at home in Baltimore, I have no idea how he'll be able to score enough against a Bengals defense in Cincinnati to outscore a Bengals offense that has put up 41 or more points per game at home in their last 4 home contests...it's simply a losing equation. I haven't lost hope, but a win simply doesn't appear likely if we're looking at this from an objective standpoint. BENGALS 28-17.
JETS AT DOLPHINS- I also haven't lost hope that the Jets could pull an upset in Miami and at least edge the Dolphins in a season-ending divisional showdown, but Jet simply don't play well enough on the road to give me much confidence going into Sunday. DOLPHINS 33-24.
TEXANS AT TITANS- I won't pretend to care about this game, but the Titans are simply better than the Texans this season and will beat them at home. TITANS 20-17.
LIONS AT VIKINGS- I thought the Vikings were much improved after they almost beat the Ravens and smashed the Eagles, but the Bengals took them back down to earth. The Lions, however, could be without Calvin Johnson, and even if he plays, I can't imagine Megatron will be at full strength. VIKINGS 27-23.
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- GIANTS 30-28.
BROWNS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 27-16.
PACKERS AT BEARS- Aaron Rodgers is back...and he's VERY good at football. PACKERS 28-20.
BRONCOS AT RAIDERS- BRONCOS 35-21.
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- The Bills have the pass rush and running attack to keep this game close, but the Patriots are too good at home to lose this game when the 2nd playoff seed is on the line. PATRIOTS 30-23.
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- I don't like the Saints in the post-season, but they're too good to lose at home to the Bucs. SAINTS 26-17.
49ERS AT CARDINALS- The 49ers just clinched a playoff spot and the Cardinals need to win in order to keep hopes of the playoffs alive. If the Cardinals somehow miss the playoffs, they'll be by far the best team not to have made it. CARDINALS 20-17.
CHIEFS AT CHARGERS- The Chiefs will be sitting enough starters for me to feel hopeless that they can win in San Diego on Sunday. CHARGERS 27-17.
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- These teams played a painfully close game last time they met, but this time will be in Seattle. SEAHAWKS 21-13.
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- No Romo? No playoffs for the Cowboys. Romo isn't elite, but the's the best that the Cowboys have, and his absence is going to render this team mostly useless. EAGLES 42-21.
KEEP THE FAITH FOR ONE MORE DAY, BALTIMORE MIRACLES DO HAPPEN
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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