RAVENS-STEELERS REMATCH ANALYSIS

     I understand why it is that the Pittsburgh Steelers have historically been given high praise from members of sports media and football fans across the nation.  The team has won a league-leading 6 Super Bowl titles including 2 in the last decade.  They currently possess some of the flashiest fantasy football weapons in the league including Ben Roethlisberger, Le'veon Bell, and Antonio Brown.  Pittsburgh has looked so offensively dominant for stretches of every season over the last half decade that it's easy for analysts and fans to go overboard in their assessment of the state of the franchise overall.  The Steelers, after all, have won only a single playoff game in the past 5 seasons, and they're 3-9 versus the Ravens during that very same stretch.  Maybe it was Flacco's difficulties for the first three years of his career against black and yellow that gave a lasting impression of the Steelers' dominance over Baltimore in the AFC North, or maybe people pay far too much attention to fantasy football numbers.  For one reason or another, the struggles of the Steelers over the last half decade simply haven't registered in the minds of many across the nation.

     No one is saying the Steelers haven't had talent.  They absolutely have elite talent at certain positions.  Their issue has been keeping that talent healthy and out of trouble long enough to make any sort of post-season run.  There has also been a profound shift in exactly how the team has been built.  Pittsburgh used to have one of the league's fiercest defenses in the previous decade and even into the first year or two of this decade.  As the old defensive guard disappeared one by one, the Steelers found themselves leaning more heavily on a pass-happy offense compared to the hard-nosed ground attack that guided them through the post-season for so many years.  They hoped to overcome defensive weaknesses with offensive fireworks, and for much of each regular season, that seemed to work.  The problem is that flawed defense and over-reliance on an aerial attack still isn't, even in this so-called "quarterback driven league", a recipe for post-season success.  Seldom does a team make a deep playoff run without the ability to play hard-nosed defense and run the football. 

     I know what many of you are likely thinking at this point.  The Steelers have an elite running back who just rushed for over 200 yards in the snow against the Bills, so they obviously have the ability to run the football.  They also have a handful of rising young defensive players who have helped the Steelers defense ascend to an 8th place ranking late in the season.  That ranking, however, is deceiving as it pertains to Sunday's game against the Ravens because it fails to take into account some major injuries to defensive staff as well as the effect the offense has had on keeping the defense off the field.

     When the Ravens faced Pittsburgh in Week 7 the Steelers were actually fairly healthy on the defensive side of the ball.  Both Cameron Heyward and Ryan Shazier were back from injuries, and they spent most of the day stuffing the Ravens rushing attack.  Heyward has since been put on injured reserve, and the other starting defensive end opposite Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, did not practice all week as he has dealt with a knee injury.  Tuitt's backup was also injured last week, and the team may find themselves relying on 3rd and 4th string talent up front against the likes of Marshal Yanda and Ronnie Stanley.  The Steelers are on a 5-game winning streak, but that streak also coincides with the return of deep-threat tight end Ladarius Green.  Ladarius Green has been listed as doubtful to play against the Ravens, and so has the burner wide receiver Sammie Coates.  That leaves the Steelers with identical receiving personnel to what they possessed during their mid-season 0-4 stretch. 

     Sammie Coates was a productive deep threat through the Steelers 4-1 beginning to the season.  He averaged 84.2 receiving yards per game during that stretch, but has been slowed and mostly sidelined since Week 6.  For the next four games, the Steelers played without a healthy Ladarius Green or Sammie Coates to stretch the field and take pressure off of Antonio Brown, and Pittsburgh did nothing but lose.  The Steelers got their first win of their current winning streak against a hopeless Browns team, but even that wasn't particularly convincing from an offensive standpoint as Pittsburgh only led the Browns 17-9 in the 4th quarter before a late pick-6 helped put the game out of reach for the Tomlin and his guys.  Ladarius Green was not surprisingly not quite yet healthy and, thus, didn't see a single target in the win over the Browns despite being listed on the active roster that day. 

     It wasn't until the following week against the Colts that Green finally got healthy and made two critical deep catches to help the Steelers pull away from Indianapolis on Thanksgiving night.  The speedy tight end followed that performance up with a breakout game against the Giants with 110 receiving yards and a touchdown against the then red-hot Giants.  Green only caught two passes against the Bills the following week, but that game was played in driving snow and Big Ben was horrendously off the mark that day with 3 interceptions.  Last week against the Bengals, Ladarius Green caught 5 passes for 72 yards, and was incredibly critical in a game in which the Steelers kicked 6 field goals and won by 4 points. 

     By now you should have realized a trend.  When the Steelers have a legitimate deep threat to compliment Antonio Brown, they win football games.  Early in the season, that deep threat was Sammie Coates, and then he became injured and they couldn't stop losing.  Later in the season Ladarius Green finally became healthy enough to play and the Steelers began to win again.  Now neither man is healthy just in time for one of the most important divisional matchups of the season.  The Steelers ultimately did find a way to beat the Bengals late last week even after Green went down with a concussion, but Sammie Coates' hamstring injury in practice only a couple of days ago means that the Steelers will once against be without both players.

     You might be thinking at this point that the Steelers will still beat the Ravens because Le'veon Bell is such a fantastic running back, right?  He is quite good, but he hasn't exactly found wild success against the Ravens, and he certainly didn't do well against them earlier this season.  Le'veon Bell is a strong, shifty, speedy running back, but much of his success comes from the fact that teams typically have to account for so many other weapons in the Steelers' offensive arsenal.  The Steelers offense, for example, isn't typically able to pound the run when teams stack the box.  Bell's numbers this season with both Ladarius Green and Sammie Coates sidelined are mediocre at best.  With a healthy Sammie Coates to stretch opposing offenses during the red-hot start to the Steelers' season, Bell averaged 110 rushing yards per game.  As soon as Coates became injured, Bell rushed for an average of 55. 75 yards per game during the Steelers losing streak.  With Ladarius Green finally healthy, Bell immediately resumed his statistical dominance with a whopping 142.6 rushing yards per game on the ground.  It's also important to note that Bell averaged 155 rushing yards in games with a totally healthy Ladarius Green, but last week that number dipped to 93 rushing yards against the Bengals as Green came out at some point during the game with a concussion.

     So who do the Steelers have besides Antonio Brown and Le'veon Bell with Ladarius Green and Sammie Coates out?  Well they have Darrius Heyward-Bey who has been next to useless for his entire career and is currently dealing with an injury issue of his own.  They also have Eli Rogers who has certainly been far more productive than Heyward-Bey (Heyward-Bey has 68 receiving yards on the season) but certainly doesn't strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses.  Rogers actually had his only 100+ receiving yard game against the Ravens earlier this season, but his presence wasn't enough to keep drives going at critical moments.

     One may conclude after reading to this point that I believe the Steelers have not a prayer of winning this football game.  That is actually not the case.  Jimmy Smith's absence factors heavily into the equation as the Ravens have, at numerous times, struggled defensively with him sidelined.  The potential damage to the Ravens defense due to Jimmy Smith's absence is, however, mitigated in this case by the absence of speedy deep threats from the Steelers receiving corps.  This situation essentially boils down to numbers--the number of capable receiving weapons versus the number of available quality opposing defensive backs.  Antonio Brown should still catch for 100+ yards, but if he's the only one making plays, this could be a disappointing night for Steelers fans.  The Ravens will likely look to limit Brown the same way they did earlier this season with double and triple coverage.  They'll then force Ben to beat them with the likes of a hobbled Heyward-Bey and Eli Rogers.  Having Jimmy Smith certainly would be huge, but the Ravens were able to hold the Bengals to a total of 12 offensive points without Jimmy Smith because of a ferocious pass rush and an emphasis on passes batted down at the line of scrimmage.

     One of the most misleading statistics I've seen regarding the Ravens recently is how their defense has performed in Jimmy Smith's absence.  It's true that he's a huge piece to the Ravens secondary, but other major defensive pieces such as C.J. Mosley and Elvis Dumervil were also absent for much of the time he was sidelined this season.  If the Ravens actually have time to adjust and prepare for life without Jimmy Smith, they actually fare quite well against the Steelers.  In 2014, the Ravens faced the Steelers in Pittsburgh right after Jimmy Smith went down with a foot injury, and the Ravens got absolutely demolished.  In the playoffs of that very same season, however, the Ravens had game-planned and adjusted to playing without Smith, and they throttled the Steelers in Pittsburgh 31-17. 

     The Ravens offense, on the other hand, has found a rhythm as of late.  Baltimore faced three straight teams that each trounced the Steelers this season, and the Ravens offense averaged 29.3 points per game against those three teams.  With major injuries to the Steelers defensive line, and a totally healthy Ravens offensive line, Baltimore should be able to control the line of scrimmage and sustain more scoring drives than the Steelers.  A fully healthy Steelers team would likely easily be enough to beat a Jimmy Smith-less Ravens team in Pittsburgh, but this is nowhere near a fully healthy Steelers team.  Their lack of depth in receiving weapons and quality defensive ends makes them a far more beatable team for a Ravens team that simply has had their number since 2011.  It's always possible that Joe Flacco could have one of the worst games of his season, but that doesn't tend to happen when his offensive line is healthy.  I'll be interested to see if Alex Lewis makes an appearance at right tackle after two weeks of practice.  It's also possible that he'll come in for Marshal Yanda if the all-pro guard needs a breather from the left side. 

RAVENS AT STEELERS PREDICTION:

     This game will by no means be easy.  The Ravens haven't won many games on the road this season, and barely beating the Eagles at home last week certainly didn't instill confidence in the hearts of Baltimoreans, but the Steelers only barely escaped a loss to a middling team last week as well.  The Steelers' offensive production, both passing and rushing, simply falls off a cliff without deep threats, and the Steelers defensive line won't be strong enough to suffocate a Ravens rushing attack that has come alive as of late.  We should still expect plenty of field goals, and the team with the better kicker absolutely has an advantage.  This will be a physical, all-out battle, but the Ravens are healthier and quite familiar with their opponent.  RAVENS 26-19

I MUST APOLOGIZE TO READERS FOR NOT POSTING LEAGUE-WIDE PREDICTIONS THIS WEEKEND.  THE SCHEDULING OF MOST OF THIS WEEK'S GAMES ON A SATURDAY ALONG WITH FAMILY OBLIGATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TIME HAS LEFT ME WITHOUT ENOUGH TIME TO GIVE PREDICTIONS THE CAREFUL CONSIDERATION THEY DESERVE.  HAPPY HOLIDAYS, EVERYONE!!

NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!!

RAVENS REBOUND AND WEEK 15 NFL PICKS

     Just when the Ravens virtually as healthy as possible, Jimmy Smith sprains his ankle in the first quarter of a road game against the Patriots.  My entire prediction was predicated on the idea that the Patriots simply wouldn't have enough weapons to match up with a totally healthy Ravens defense, and that may have ultimately ended up being the case were it not for Smith's early exit.  The Patriots' game-sealing touchdown, in fact, may very well not have happened if Smith was on the field at that point in the game as Lardarius Webb would have still been at free safety, Weddle at strong safety, Jimmy and Tavon on the outside, with Wright or Powers at nickel corner.  With Smith out, the Ravens had Shareece Wright and Tavon Young at corner, Webb at nickel, Weddle at free safety, and Matt Elam at strong.  Elam is nearly useless at this point in his disappointing career, why the Ravens kept him and not Terrence Brooks is a mystery I may never fully solve.  Elam simply isn't athletically equipped to drop back in pass coverage consistently.  Chris Hogan isn't a speed demon, but he proved too much for Elam who stumbled trying to keep up with a Patriots receiver who caught a 79 yard touchdown pass that essentially sealed the Ravens' fate. 

     Injuries are unquestionably part of the game, and the Patriots were playing with more key injured players than the Ravens by far.  The Patriots, somehow, found themselves dominating the Ravens through much of the game.  It didn't matter that Gronk was out, and it didn't matter that the Patriots didn't have a single wide receiver with over 600 receiver yards.  Brady and Belichick simply zeroed in on weaknesses in an extremely strong Ravens defense, such as the ability to stop a hurry up offense as seen against the Giants earlier this season, and they used the players available to them.  The fact that so much of the Ravens' success appears to depend on the health of a single player would suggest two things.  Thing #1:  The Ravens have depressingly poor depth at corner.  Thing #2: The Ravens coaching doesn't enter games against top teams with superb game plans.

     The Ravens coaching staff DID eventually adjust to Jimmy Smith's absence.  After going down 23-3 early in the third quarter, the Ravens began forcing the Patriots to punt repeatedly, and with some magic from a fairly consistently explosive special teams unit, Baltimore was able to close the gap to 23-17 in rapid fashion.  The Ravens were even able to move the football on a couple of drives that took advantage of the talents of Kenneth Dixon and Terrence West, but those drives ultimately took far too much time off the clock and each only resulted in a field goal.  That brings us to an irritating pattern the Ravens have displayed against top teams: they find success with a balanced offensive attack either too early or too late, but never consistently.  They have put on offensive fireworks displays only a couple of times this season, and the most recent came against a red-hot Miami team that has won one more game than the Ravens at this point. 

     The Patriots, however, are not the Dolphins.  The Patriots actually now possess a higher ranked scoring defense than Baltimore, and both defenses were tied in that statistical category leading up to last Monday night's game.  The thing that threw me off was the fact that the Patriots had played close games against some extremely bad teams in the three weeks leading up to the Ravens game.  That only goes to show that each game is its own entity, and that no team is more clever than the Patriots when it comes to finding creative ways to win that they haven't yet shown on film. 

     The Patriots hadn't looked as dominant in the last month, but they may suddenly be terrifying to opposing teams after picking up deep threat receiver Michael Floyd off the waiver wire following his arrest for DUI while signed with the Arizona Cardinals.  Floyd hadn't had a career year this season, but that had much to do with the decline of Carson Palmer.  Brady and Belichick tend to elevate receiving talent, and a legitimate deep threat could go a long way to make up for the loss of Rob Gronkowski.  I'd bet good money that the Patriots will make it to the AFC Championship at the least this season after making that bold but shrewd acquisition.

     New England is, at least for the rest of the regular season, no longer any concern to the Ravens.  Baltimore has to win its remaining games to guarantee a playoff spot, and they need to hope the Bengals find a way to win at home this weekend.  If, for instance, the Ravens beat the Eagles and the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Ravens would need only to beat the Steelers the following week to clinch the AFC North division.  That would afford them the ability to sit their starters in Week 16 against the Bengals and go into a home playoff game with rested, healthy starters.  Beating the Steelers on the road without Jimmy Smith, however, is a tall task.  The Ravens held off the Steelers in Baltimore earlier this season when Ben Roethlisberger was coming off of an injury and had a limited number of targets, but now Ladarius Green has been added to his arsenal, and that's bad news with Jimmy Smith out.  The Ravens could still beat the Eagles and Bengals and get into the playoffs, but they'd need help from other teams.  They'd need the Dolphins to go 1-2 through the end of the season, and they'd need the Broncos to essentially lose out (which they actually should be predicted to do).  The problem remains that if the Ravens aren't good enough to beat a horrible Eagles team and two other teams they already beat this season just because Jimmy Smith is out, they simply don't belong in the playoffs anyway.

     Speaking of Jimmy Smith, what's the deal with his injury status?  It appeared pretty clear that Jimmy sprained his ankle on Monday, but it seems uncharacteristic for the Ravens not to go into more detail about a potential timetable for his return.  John Harbaugh wasn't just tightlipped about the injury; he became downright defensive when questions inevitably arose following the game.  I have hope that the sprain isn't so severe that Jimmy is out for the rest of the entire football year.  If this means that he'll be back for the first game of the playoffs (assuming that they make it there) then maybe his return will provide a timely major post-season boost.   It's possible, however, that such an ankle sprain could take him out for 4-6 weeks, and that would likely render the Ravens' top corner finished for the 2016 season.  We likely won't know until reports from practice next week, but I must say that I'm not terrifically optimistic.  If Harbaugh had reasonably good news, it seems as though he'd speak to the media about it.

     Baltimore will almost certainly NOT require Jimmy Smith's services to beat an Eagles team that is 2-8 in their last 10 games.  Not only are the Eagles decimated by injuries, but they're starting a rookie quarterback not experienced enough to carry a team during such trying times.  Darren Sproles' absence takes away an experienced back with 766 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns.  More importantly, however, the Eagles are on their 5th (yes, you read that correctly) right offensive tackle this week.  Pressure on Carson Wentz could be absolutely devastating, especially in a harsh, loud road environment where visiting quarterbacks struggle to communicate with their teammates at the line of scrimmage.  Of course anything can happen, but we should fully expect the Ravens to take out their frustrations from last Monday on a battered, struggling Eagles team. 

     The Eagles defense isn't nearly as dominant as it appeared earlier this season, but it's still not a terrible unit from a statistical standpoint.  Philly boasts the 14th ranked run defense and the 12th ranked pass defense in the league.  They also currently rank 11th overall in total defense in the category of yards allowed per game.  The Eagles even come in a respectable 12th place in the league in points allowed per game.  When we specifically look at the Eagles' record on the road, however, things become far more grim for Philadelphia.  Much of the Eagles' defensive statistical success comes from their defensive dominance at home.  Philly has, in fact, allowed a mere 15.33 points per game at home.  On the road, that number increases to 25.7 points allowed per game.  To add insult to literal injury, as the Eagles lose more and more starting offensive players, their ability to keep their defense off the field diminishes and leaves a solid group exhausted. 

     The Eagles don't have enough healthy impact players to outscore the Ravens, and they've only won a single road game this season...against the Bears.  Without the ability to protect a rookie quarterback, expect Dumervil and Suggs to have a monster game.  Alex Lewis' return to health means the Ravens will finally have all of their starting offensive linemen healthy, and that means better protection for Joe and more open running lanes for Dixon and West.  There's currently an 80% chance of rain at kickoff, but temperatures will rise to an unseasonable 58 degrees.  This could get extremely sloppy now that the Ravens have switched to real grass, but the conditions will favor the team better suited to run the football and stop the run--that team is Baltimore.   The Ravens players are pissed, they're pumped, and they're ready to rebound. 


THE PICKS

DOLPHINS AT JETS- This game will be interesting because of Ryan Tannehill's absence.  The Dophins aren't a great road team, but the Jets will likely be missing 8 starters.  Injuries to the Jets' offensive line will likely mean the Dolphins defensive line will have a big day putting pressure on Bryce Petty or whoever takes most of the snaps for the Jets.  The Jets beat the 49ers last week, but they're simply to banged up to beat the Dolphins on Sunday.  DOLPHINS 27-14

PACKERS AT BEARS- The Packers proved against the Seahawks that they truly have improved.  This should be a sound beating against a Bears team that gave up hope months ago.  PACKERS 33-17

JAGUARS AT TEXANS- The Jaguars haven't won a game in actual months.  TEXANS 24-17

EAGLES AT RAVENS- The Eagles can't win road games, especially not in their current injured state.  The Ravens have exactly one starter missing at this point and they've had good offensive production at home as of late.  RAVENS 30-16

TITANS AT CHIEFS- The Titans are improving and they're a decent team, but they're simply not nearly good enough to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.  The Chiefs are actually my pick at this point to meet the Patriots in Foxboro for the AFC Championship.  They do the things necessary to win in December and January and those things are run the football and play serious defense.  The Titans are only 3-3 on the road, and they haven't strung together wins at any point this season.  CHIEFS 26-17

LIONS AT GIANTS- Theo Riddick won't suit up for the Lions, and that means they're down to almost zero talent at the running back position.  Both of these teams have won a lot of games as of late, but the Giants have beaten higher quality teams.  The Lions barely edging the Bears last week shouldn't inspire much confidence in their road trip to face a team that just finished sweeping the Cowboys.  GIANTS 24-21

COLTS AT VIKINGS- Texans fans should be happy with the outcome of this game.  The Colts will be like fish out of water in a harsh winter environment, and the return of Adrian Peterson should help take pressure off of Sam Bradford and give at least a bit of a spark to the Vikings offense.  The Vikings defense won't let Andrew Luck move the ball consistently.  VIKINGS 23-17

STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are 4-2 at home this year, but that likely won't be enough to stop the Steelers.  Pittsburgh's defense has looked significantly improved recently, and the rise of Ladarius Green gives the Steelers a much needed second deep threat to take pressure off of Antonio Brown.  A.J. Green didn't ever seem likely to return, but now there's no hope of that happening.  Without him healthy, the Bengals won't have enough to outscore the Steelers this week.  STEELERS 28-20

SAINTS AT CARDINALS- This game is totally inconsequential.  The Saints are pretty bad on the road and the Cardinals are 4-2-1 at home.  CARDINALS 31-28

49ERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons' season has come off the rails, but they'll be able to take out their frustrations against the 49ers.  Both teams are missing deep threat receivers in Torrey Smith and Julio Jones, but only one of those players is a significant loss.  Atlanta should still be able to pull this one out though.  FALCONS 35-17

PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos defense simply isn't enough to beat a superior Patriots team.  The Patriots defense is probably just as good at this point, and their offense is vastly superior to that of Denver.  PATRIOTS 27-20

RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers have that the misfortune of having easily the toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  This won't be much of a road game for the Raiders as their fans won't have to travel that far to drown out hopeless Chargers fans in San Diego.  RAIDERS 31-24

BUCCANEERS AT COWBOYS- The Bucs have been entertaining to watch this season, but they won't be able to beat the Cowboys in Arlington.  Don't let last week's loss to the Giants fool you--this is still a dominant Cowboys team.  The Bucs' road record is just as good as the Cowboys home record, so expect this to be one of the best games of the week.  COWBOYS 28-23

PANTHERS AT REDSKINS- The Panthers' road record is simply too bad to suggest they can beat the Redskins in D.C.  This is about as far as a team has fallen the year after it went to the Super Bowl in recent years.  The Redskins should be able to pick on atrocious Panthers corners.  REDSKINS 33-21

THE RAVENS ARE STILL IN CONTROL OF THEIR OWN DESTINY AND, DESPITE JIMMY SMITH'S ABSENCE, THEY'RE STILL A RATHER HEALTHY TEAM.  PRIORITY #1 IS BEATING THE EAGLES, AND THEN WE'LL SEE WHERE THE REST OF THE LEAGUE STANDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  DON'T GIVE UP HOPE NOW, BALTIMORE, IT'S JUST GETTING INTERESTING!!

NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!

RAVENS-PATRIOTS BREAKDOWN AND WEEK 14 NFL PICKS

     The biggest, most common error in predicting NFL games is to base a prediction on the comparison of two opposing teams' records.  The second biggest, most common error is to base a prediction on a team's reputation.  I was recently asked by a man from another country why NFL teams don't have dynasties the way professional soccer and basketball teams often tend to do.  I cited the comparatively prohibitive salary cap as a reason NFL teams can't hold on to a particular roster for more than a couple of years, but the greatest reason is the violent nature of the sport. 

     A team is only as good as the players it puts on the field on any given week, and injuries are dramatically more common and severe in the NFL than they are in professional soccer and basketball.  Sure, it's possible to tear one's ACL or collide with another player in low-impact activities, but the injury report of an NFL roster is a constantly evolving entity.  The team that comes out on top in pro football isn't necessarily the one that looked most dominant over the course of the season, but instead it's often the team that entered the post-season with the healthiest, strongest roster.

     Sometimes a team can go much of the regular season without major integral pieces to their lineup, and then an impact player returns healthy and raring to go just in time for week 1 of the playoffs.  That certainly happened for the Giants in 2011/2012 season as Osi Umeniyora returned to give the Giants a major pass rushing boost just in time to help them upset the reigning champion Packers and ultimately overcome the Patriots in one of the most gripping Super Bowls ever played. 

     The Ravens experienced a similar boost the following season as Bryant McKinney returned as left tackle which shifted Michael Oher back over to his natural right tackle position.  The Ravens, however, also had a host of other major changes that led to their upswing in performance during the post-season.  Many forget that Anquan Boldin actually had a torn meniscus and had to sit out the final two games of the season.  Boldin fought mightily through the pain of his torn meniscus all throughout the regular season, but getting the knee scoped and having two weeks to heal led to an incredible rejuvenation of his ability to dominate as soon as the first game of the playoffs arrived.  Boldin embarrassed the Colts with a 155 receiving yard performance, and he ultimately led all receivers through the playoffs in yardage and touchdowns. 

     The post-season has not yet arrived, and the Ravens have not yet solidified their status as AFC North champions.  They are, however, getting healthy in time for what many assumed would be the toughest stretch on their schedule.  There's no question that playing the Patriots in Foxboro typically represents one of the biggest challenges in professional sports.  The Pats have maintained an incredibly high standard of performance for an unfathomable amount of time given the amount of roster turnover from year to year in the NFL.  The Patriots also bolster one of the best, if not THE best, home-field advantages in the league.  Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have also often found a way to win football games in the absence of key personnel.  They won without Tom Brady for three out of their first four games, and won last week despite the absence of Rob Gronkowski.  It's important, however, that we consider exactly who the Patriots beat without Gronk, and how they've fared since the All-Pro tight tend first injured himself against the Seahawks.

     The Patriots haven't lost a game since facing Seattle four weeks ago, but their schedule since then hasn't exactly been daunting.  After the Seahawks, the Patriots faced the 49ers, the Jets, and the Rams.  Those teams have COMBINED for a total of 8 wins, while the Ravens destroyed a red-hot Dolphins team last week that has 7 wins.  Beating up on the Dolphins doesn't mean the Ravens are invincible from here on out, but it illustrates perfectly the point that a team's record means far less than the current status and health of their players as well as their most recent performances.  The Dolphins, for example, had just managed to barely beat two of the same bottom-feeding opponents that the Patriots faced in recent weeks in the 49ers and Rams.  When we took the injury issues of Miami into consideration and factored in the return of Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil as well as blocking tight end Nick Boyle, it wasn't difficult to predict a solid win for Baltimore. 

     The Patriots certainly handled the 49ers and Rams far better than the Dolphins did, but they struggled to pull away from a reeling Jets team.  Part of that can be attributed to divisional familiarity, but another part was undoubtedly Gronk's limitation and ultimately his exit due to his back injury that turned out to require surgery for a bulging disk.  Many assumed that former Pro Bowl tight end Martellus Bennett would help mitigate the damage of Gronk's exit, but Bennett was ultimately forced to leave the game as well.  Tom Brady, instead, utilized a solid 91 yard rushing performance from the combo of LaGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis along with decent receiving production from Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and rookie Malcolm Mitchell.  All 5 of those players will take the field Monday night, but not one of them represents an elite receiving or rushing threat.  Sure, Blount has over 900 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, but much of that has been due to teams committing so much of their personnel to stopping the likes of Gronk. 

     The Ravens have faced Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Jay Ajayi, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper, Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson, O'Dell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Allen Hurns,  and Jarvis Landry.  Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, LaGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, and a hobbled Martellus Bennett don't exactly leave the Ravens shaking in their cleats.  The Dolphins, for example, ended up having all three of their potent wide receiver trio last week along with an incredibly talented Jay Ajayi.  Ajayi showed burst and the ability to break tackles, but he was still held to 61 yards.  The Dolphins secondary that ranked 9th in the league had absolutely no answer for the Ravens receiving corps.  Joe Flacco spread the ball out to a total of 10 receivers, and four of those receivers had in excess of 50 yards with Dennis Pitta leading the way at 90.  It didn't matter that the likes of Cameron Wake and Ndamakong Suh attempted to get to Flacco's blind side all day; the Ravens kept Joe clean and Marty Mornhinweg prepared an ingenious play script designed to attack the middle of the field with tight ends while stretching the secondary with speedy wide receivers.  The Dolphins couldn't key in on any particular player because Joe spread the ball out so incredibly evenly.  It was a pick-your-poison situation.

     The Patriots in Foxboro are unquestionably a more difficult opponent than the Dolphins playing in Baltimore.  Bill Belichick is the craftiest coach of a generation, possibly of all time.  The Patriots are 10-2 and leading their division.  They rank in the top ten in both offense and defense, and they're tied in points allowed on the season with none other than the Baltimore Ravens.  That hasn't stopped, however, the likes of the 49ers and Jets from keeping scores close with the Patriots all the way up until 4th quarters of their respective games.  The Patriots, for example, only led the 49ers 13-10 entering the 4th quarter, and they entered the 4th quarter 13-10 against the Jets too.   Credit must be given to the Patriots for winning, but the loss of Gronkowski has certainly taken away the edge and killer instinct the Patriots had earlier this season when they beat up on the Steelers, Texans, and Bills. 

     From a statistical standpoint, the Patriots averaged 34 points per game with Brady and Gronkowski both playing and healthy.  Once Gronk took the hellacious shot that ultimately led to the premature end to his season, the Patriots' scoring average dropped to 25.5 points per game.  The Ravens defense, meanwhile, has absolutely suffocated opponents recently.  Without Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil, the Ravens struggled to stop Dez Bryant and get pressure on Dak Prescott.  Dumervil's return the following week led to a ferocious upswing in pressure on Andy Dalton, and Jimmy Smith's return the week after that led to a nearly flawless defensive shutdown of a Dolphins offense with an impressive array of weapons.  Now the Ravens face a Patriots team with fewer impact offensive players that has struggled to pull away from some absolutely horrible teams as of late. 

     Conventional wisdom would suggest that it's unwise to bet against the Patriots at home, but the Ravens must've missed the memo on that one.  Joe Flacco is 2-2 against the Patriots in the playoffs, and even in losses, Flacco has played as well or better than Brady.  Let's for a second, examine the last loss to the Patriots, shall we?  The Ravens last lost to the Pats in the playoffs of the 2014 season, and mismatch issues were glaring.  The Ravens twice held 14 point leads, but their stable of cornerbacks simply couldn't stop the likes of Edelman, Amendola, and Brandon LaFell.  Gronkowkski was healthy and dominant with 108 receiving yards, and the combination of Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis helped to halt key Ravens drives.  Baltimore ultimately fell short as Flacco threw a game-sealing pick intended for Torrey Smith who disappointingly and lazily didn't make a serious attempt to either catch the ball of bat down the pass.  Jimmy Smith wasn't active as his season had ended months earlier with a foot injury, and the Ravens were left starting an ailing Lardarius Webb and undrafted rookie Rashaan Melvin at corner. 

     Now compare THAT matchup to THIS matchup.  No Gronkowski, no LaFell, and no Darrelle Revis.  Jamie Collins is gone, and unlike that last matchup two seasons ago, the Ravens defense is absolutely stacked and healthy.  The Ravens added the top rated safety in the league, Eric Weddle, they got Jimmy Smith back healthy, and drafted starting corner Tavon Young who has played energetic, inspired football for months now.  Even Lardarius Webb has elevated his game as of late in his conversion to safety as he snagged what could easily be considered the interception of the year last week at the edge of the endzone.  Jimmy Smith has sometimes struggled against Edelman, but Tavon Young should stay with him quite well as he has been a fantastic match for smaller, shifty receivers.  Smith will easily lock down the likes of Malcolm Mitchell or Chris Hogan, and whichever corner is stuck opposite of whomever Tavon and Jimmy aren't covering will likely receive safety help.

     I don't wish to belabor the point, but Rob Gronkowski's absence coupled with Martellus Bennett's injuries mean there isn't a tight end on the Patriots' roster that will require a double team.  That is incredibly huge for the Ravens as it should free them up to get more creative with blitzing safeties and linebackers.  Tom Brady has worked to increase his mobility in recent years, but he's still not fast enough to evade the likes of Suggs, Dumervil, and Matt Judon (hell, even Timmy Jernigan).  The Ravens tend to struggle more against mobile quarterbacks such as Derek Carr and Dak Prescott.  Traditional pocket passers are sitting ducks against this Ravens defense when it's healthy...which it is.

    With all of that said, this is sure to be the game of the week and possible one of the best games of the year.  The Patriots have all but stamped their ticket to the post season as they sit three games ahead of the second place team in their division with only 4 weeks left in the regular season.  Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will, nevertheless, be hungry to win in order to secure the #1 seed and home-field advantage through the playoffs.  Both the Chiefs and Raiders currently have 10 wins, and a Patriots win on Monday night would put New England at 11-2 with tough matchups against the Broncos, Jets, and Dolphins remaining.  The Patriots, in other words, don't NEED this win, but they certainly want it.

     The Ravens don't necessarily need a win this weekend to get into the playoffs or even to win their division.  The Broncos once appeared a lock to make the playoffs, but key injuries have left them 4-4 in their last 8 games after a red-hot 4-0 start to the season.  More importantly, the Broncos win last week was an uninspired 20-10 victory over one of the worst teams in the league.  The Broncos are currently 8-4 and one game ahead of the Ravens, but the Broncos face the Titans, Patriots, Chiefs, and Raiders to finish their season and they could easily go 1-3 or even 0-4 during that stretch to finish 8-8 or 9-7.  The Ravens' remaining schedule isn't a cakewalk, but two of the four teams left on their schedule are teams they've already beaten soundly, and the Eagles are now one of the worst teams in the league after having dropped 7 of their last 9 games including last week's embarrassing 32-14 loss to the equally disappointing Bengals.  The Ravens would need only to handle the Eagles and then one of their other remaining opponents to finish 9-7, and that could very well secure the a wildcard spot ahead of the Broncos. 

     If the Ravens can manage to beat the Patriots, Eagles, and Steelers, they will have clinched their division and a home playoff game.  They could, in that scenario, sit their starters against the Bengals to get as healthy as possible leading into a post-season run exactly the way they did in 2012.  The Ravens could also beat the Eagles, Steelers, and Bengals but lose to the Patriots and still win the division, but that wouldn't afford them the ability to sit their starters in the final week of the regular season.  One thing is clear now though: the Ravens no longer necessarily need to win their division to secure a spot in the post-season.

     Almost just as important as securing a playoff berth will be showing themselves and the league that the Ravens can beat a top team on the road in a hostile, playoff style, road environment.  The low for Monday night will be 27 degrees with no precipitation.  Baltimore City is no stranger to cold weather, so the Ravens tend not to find themselves overwhelmed by playing in the cold, but this will certainly be a test for many of the rookie starters.  Tom Brady is still one of the absolute best in the game, and he passes with surgical precision and a lightning fast release.  The Ravens will, themselves have to execute at a high level to score on a quality Patriots defense.  This game isn't about fearing defeat at the hands of an elite team.  The Ravens have faced the most elite teams in the league all season.  This is about proving this team is worthy of a post-season run, and I know that every single player in purple is excited to show the country just how this team can be.  And now let's take a look at this week's picks!

WEEK 14 NFL PICKS

STEELERS AT BILLS- There was a time in the not-too-distant past where I thought this would be a great chance for the Steelers to lose.  After the Bills' epic collapse in Oakland last week, however, I no longer regard them as a major threat to take down the Steelers.  The Steelers didn't exactly blow anyone away with their performance against the Giants, but they played well enough to beat an 8-3 team, and that's still a serious accomplishment.   The Steelers defense is starting to step up a bit, and their offense is beginning to regain its footing after the midseason skid.  I'll be rooting for Tyrod to bounce back, but my brain tells me the Steelers will get their 8th win this weekend.  I reeeeally hope I'm wrong about this one.  STEELERS 27-20

BRONCOS AT TITANS- The Broncos have been the better team this season, but the Titans have scored the 8th most points in the NFL this season, and they'll face a Broncos missing its starting inside linebacker and a starting quarterback dealing with some injury issues of his own.  With Brandon Marshal out, expect the Titans to run DeMarco Murray right at the vaunted Broncos defense.  The Broncos are so desperate at the running back position that they signed poor Justin Forsett who has already been cut by two other teams this season, thus proving that he truly has passed his brief, but inspiring prime with the Ravens in 2014.  The Broncos defense will fight valiantly, but their offense likely won't be able to put up enough points to beat a strong Titans offense in Nashville.  TITANS 24-21

REDSKINS AT EAGLES- The Redskins have struggled a bit as of late, but they've played far more difficult opponents than they nearly useless Eagles.  Ryan Matthews extended absence with a badly sprained MCL leaves the Eagles with too few weapons to beat a quality opponent.  Hell, they weren't winning games BEFORE Matthews went down.  The Redskins offense will put up a monster first half that the Eagles simply won't be able to overcome.  REDSKINS 34-20

CARDINALS AT DOLPHINS- Despite their win last week over the Redskins, the Cardinals have still dropped 3 of their last 5 games and 2 of their last 3.  More importantly, the only team they've beaten on the road this season was the 49ers.  The Dolphins will be looking to rebound after a crushing road loss last week, and with Tyrann Mathieu contemplating surgery on this shoulder, Tannehill should have an easier time moving the football.  Kiko Alonso and Mario Williams will both be out for this game so it's on the Dolphins offense to simply outgun that of the Cardinals.  Miami is a terrific home team, and the Cardinals have basically no shot at the playoffs.  DOLPHINS 26-19.

CHARGERS AT PANTHERS- It's been another one of those years for the Chargers.  They're good enough to hang with winning teams, but they have lost a ton of one score games.  In fact, now that I look at it, the Chargers have had arguably the toughest schedule in the NFL.  The Panthers will again be without Luke Kuechly again, and I have a feeling Philip Rivers will simply outpace their scoring.  The Panthers don't have good enough defensive backs to slow down Rivers and company.  CHARGERS 28-21

BENGALS AT BROWNS- I'm interested to see what RG3 does, but I can't see the Browns breaking their losing streak against a Bengals team that is unquestionably better.  Familiarity, especially with Hue Jackson, keeps this one close.  BENGALS 23-17

BEAR AT LIONS- The Lions have actually shaped up to be a pretty serious team.  The Bear's should consider tanking the rest of the season in order to hopefully draft their next franchise QB.  LIONS 30-14

TEXANS AT COLTS- The Colts with Andrew Luck healthy appear to be back in business.  The Texans, on the other hand, appear to be trending sharply downward.  The Texans beat the Colts in Houston earlier this season 26-23, but this matchup in Indy should tilt in the Colts' favor.  COLTS 31-24

VIKINGS AT JAGUARS- The Vikings may not be what they had hoped they'd be at this point in the season, but they're unquestionably stronger than the Jags. VIKINGS 24-13

JETS AT 49ERS- Oh for the love of god.  Why wasn't this game cancelled?  Do I HAVE to pick a winner?  Both teams looked useless in their games last week.  I guess Ryan Fitzpatrick liable to have a decent game every now and then and his receivers might be able to put something together against a terrible 49ers secondary.  JETS 21-17

SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS- Drew Brees and company area fading fast.  Jameis Winston, by contrast, has put together a 4-game winning streak that featured two major wins over two top NFC playoff contenders in the Chiefs and Seahawks.  The Saints have lost three of their last 4 games and are nearly mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.  New Orleans is also 2-3 on the road this season.  BUCCANEERS 33-28

FALCONS AT RAMS-  The Falcons are still in the hunt for the playoffs at 7-5.  They should have more than enough firepower to outscore a Rams team that ranks dead last in the NFL in offensive production. FALCONS 38-17

SEAHAWKS AT PACKERS- I'm not buying the Packers' recent success as an indication that Aaron Rodgers has finally gotten back on track.  The Eagles proved last week in their blowout loss to the Bengals that they're easily one of the worst teams in the league, so Green Bay's win in Philly shouldn't mean much about the strength of the Pack.  The Packers' win last week over the Texans doesn't impress me much either considering it was in the snow in Green Bay against a team that usually practices in Texas weather.  Rodgers may be able to take advantage of Earl Thomas' absence, but I can't see the Packers' defense stopping Russell Wilson and his superior group of offensive weapons.  SEAHAWKS 35-26

COWBOYS AT GIANTS- The Giants likely need only to win two of their four remain games in order to earn a playoff berth.  The problem is that they have 3 divisional games and the Lions remaining.  The Cowboys are better than when they faces Eli and company in Week 1.  Dak Prescott has quickly evolved into an efficient, dynamic playmaker.  The Giants defense doesn't have what it takes, especially without Jason Pierre Paul, to content with the likes of the Cowboys O line.  The Cowboys will simply outlast the Giants the way they have with everyone else. COWBOYS 28-24

RAVENS AT PATRIOTS-  The Patriots have been an excellent team this season, but they're simply not a good matchup for the Ravens with their current level of health.  Gronkowski's absence and Martellus Bennett's ineffectiveness due to injuries means that the Patriots have nursed tiny leads against horrible teams over the last 3 weeks.  The Ravens are as healthy as they've been all season, and when they're healthy, they don't lose.  LaGarrette Blount won't find success running against the Ravens defensive front on first or second down.  Blount's 13 rushing TDs came almost exclusively while Rob Gronkowski was on the field to draw away linebacker coverage.  While Gronk played through the first 9 games, Blount scored 12 touchdowns.  In the last three weeks, however, Blount has been held to a total of one rushing touchdown.  If Blount couldn't pound the ball in against the 49ers and Jets, how in the world could fans expect him to do so against the Ravens?   Eleven of the Patriots' twenty-three passing touchdowns this season were completed to players who are either currently injured or done for the season.  The remaining 4 receivers combine for 12 touchdowns this season, and Malcolm Mitchell is the only one with more than a single touchdown catch over the past three weeks.  The Ravens pass rushers will feast on Brady as he no longer has a single elite target to which he can consistently throw on third down.  Edelman, Hogan, and Mitchell make up one of the least daunting receiving trios the Ravens have faced this season.  Steve Smith Sr., Mike Wallace, and Breshad Perriman, on the other hand, will make life hell for the Patriots if they can't find a way to get to Joe Flacco quickly and often.  Oh, and if the Dolphins vaunted pass rushers couldn't get to Flacco with the way his offensive line has been protecting him recently, don't expect the Patriots to be able to do it--especially after they let go of Jamie Collins weeks ago.  These teams might meet against in the playoffs, and the Patriots might be healthier at that point, but at this moment, the Ravens are the stronger team...they've just gotta prove it.  Oh, and I fully expect 4 critical field goals from Justin Tucker.  Call me a homer, but I simply don't see the weapons necessary to move the ball consistently on this Ravens defense. 
RAVENS 26-20

THIS IS WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT, RAVENS FANS.  JOE, TERRELL AND THE BOYS ENTERING HOSTILE ENEMY TERRITORY AND BATTLING FOR AFC DOMINANCE.  THERE'S NO BETTER LATE-SEASON RIVALRY IN FOOTBALL THE RAVENS AND PATRIOTS.

NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!

RAVENS BREAKDOWN AND WEEK 13 NFL PREDICTIONS

     The Miami Dolphins have been a bit of a surprise this year at 7-4, and I'll bet even the most optimistic of Dolphins fans wouldn't have predicted a 6 game winning streak after beginning the season 1-4.  Jay Ajayi has been electric with impressive lineman in front of him clearing the way.  Ryan Tannehill previously looked as though he'd never truly be able to carry his team, but he's shown the ability to pick up the slack as Ajayi and the running game stalled with critical linemen injured in recent weeks.  The Dolphins haven't played the best teams in the league during this 6-game stretch, but any win is a big deal in this league, and stringing together wins is all the more impressive considering injury issues over the past month. 

     The Ravens aren't nearly as hot as the Dolphins, but they've won 3 of their last four games and appear to finally be over the injury bug that plagued the team during the woeful 4-game losing streak that followed their red-hot 3-0 start.  I mentioned last week that getting a healthy Elvis Dumervil back would go a long way to make up for Jimmy Smith's absence.  In 2014, for example, the Ravens made the playoffs and beat up on the Steelers in Pittsburgh in large part because the tandem of Suggs and Dumervil was so potent that it made up for issues at the safety and corner positions as Jimmy Smith was out for the second half of the season.  Tom Brady picked on weak corners the next week and ended up beating the Ravens in a tight 34-30 game.  Fast forward to 2016 and suddenly the Ravens have a the ferocious Suggs-Doom tandem healthy AND Jimmy Smith is set to take the field for the first time in 3 weeks. 

     Now what does that mean for this week's matchup against the Dolphins?  Well Tannehill has been impressive over the last several weeks in large part because of his connection with his athletic, young receivers.  Jarvis Landry has over 700 receiver yards on the season, and DeVante Parker has been an effective #2 with nearly 550 yards thus far.  The problem for the Dolphins, however, is that DeVante Parker is likely not going to play as he is currently dealing with a back issue and hasn't practiced all week.  Landry has the most receiving yards on his team this season, but he has been FAR outperformed by Parker in the past 3 games.  Parker has, in fact, averaged 82 yards per game during this last 3-game stretch, whereas Landry has been limited to 42.6 yards per game during that same period. 

     Matching up well with the Ravens typically requires outnumbering their quality defensive backs with playmaking receivers.  The Ravens can count on a healthy Jimmy Smith to shut down or limit a team's #1 receiver, and then they can give safety help to whomever covers the team's #2.  The pass rush also helps cover up coverage deficiencies in some of the lesser DBs, and that's why teams such as the Steelers who are over-reliant on a single receiver such as Antonio Brown do not match up well with Baltimore.  The Bengals devastated the Ravens over the past few seasons with their 3-receiver group of Green, Sanu, and Marvin Jones, but not a single one of those receivers played in Baltimore last week. The Ravens, as a result, defensively dominated Cincy for the first time in years--even without Jimmy Smith.

     Well now Jimmy Smith IS healthy, and the Ravens will, for the first time this season, combine the coverage strength of Smith with the pass rush of Suggs and Dumervil.  Those three haven't all been healthy at the same time since the first half of the 2014 season.  One can bet that Smith will be tasked with covering Jarvis Landry for most of the day, and the speedy Kenny Stills will step up in the #2 receiver spot.  Landry, Parker, and Stills have all combined to form a dangerous trio that could have given the Ravens major issues.  With Parker out, however, the Ravens will simply have to put Jimmy Smith on one side and give safety help to Tavon Young as he covers Stills.  Three nearly equally explosive wide receivers are difficult for any team to cover effectively, but two are dramatically easier to manage. 

     With fewer quality receiving options at their disposal, one has to assume the Dolphins will hope to lean more on their running game in the cold Baltimore environment.  Ajayi is unquestionably talented, but he's been bottled up more recently because of injuries to three of Miami's starting offensive linemen.  The Dolphins' starting center, Pouncey, has already been ruled out, but the other two, Laremy Tunsil and Branden Albert, appear ready to play.  Tunsil is the left tackle, and he's been quite dominant when healthy.  Tunsil will, however, be playing with a brace on his shoulder that should dramatically limit his ability to stop the likes of Terrell Suggs coming off the edge.  Since Pouncey, Tunsil, and Albert have dealt with injuries over the past 3 weeks, Jay Ajayi's rushing numbers have fallen dramatically.  Ajayi averaged a whopping 176 yards per game during the three game stretch between October 16th and November 6th, but his average has plummeted to 67 yards per game over the last 3 weeks.  Ajayi was limited to a pedestrian 45 yards on the ground and 2.5 yards per carry last week against the 49ers, but Tannehill picked up the slack and led his team to a 31-24 victory.

     With their offensive line and one of their most integral receivers missing, the Dolphins will be short of the number of playmakers required to overwhelm a healthy Ravens defense at home.  The question for the Ravens all week has been whether or not the have enough in the tank offensively to match a Dolphins team that has put up a decent number of points on a number of occasions this season.  The Dolphins pass defense is ranked 9th in the league, which isn't too far behind Baltimore's 6th place ranking in the same category.  The Dolphins rush defense, however, is ranked 30th in the NFL, and that'll be a point that Baltimore will likely look to exploit.  The Dolphins secondary will also be weakened by the absence of one of their starting corners.  Xavien Howard was just ruled out for Sunday's game, and that means Miami could struggle to stop the trio of Mike Wallace, Steve Smith Sr., and Breshad Perriman. 

     As hot as the Dolphins have been over the past 6 weeks, they've also played extremely close games as of late with teams in the bottom third of the league.  Barely beating the 49ers didn't exactly instill much confidence in many about this team's ability to win going forward against tougher teams while dealing with injuries to key players.  The previous week's 14-10 win over the Rams showed how difficult it could be for the Dolphins to score against a talented defensive line.  There's probably no better defensive line in the NFL than that of the Baltimore Ravens.  Brandon Williams is easily the NFL's best run-stuffing nose tackle, and his backup, Michael Pierce, is nearly as good.  C.J. Mosley has been incredible against the run, and a large part of the Ravens inability to beat the Jets and Giants stemmed from his absence.  If Jay Ajayi struggled against the Rams and 49ers, he'll definitely find little running room in Charm City.

     None of this, of course, means the Ravens are about to blow out the Dolphins.  It's difficult to argue with a 7-4 record, and Miami has found a way to win games week after week despite various injuries to key players.  Winning narrow victories against a pair of teams that combine for 4 wins this season is much different than winning on the road against a 6-5 Ravens team that boasts the league's second ranked defense by yardage, 4th ranked defense by points allowed, 1st ranked defense against the run, and 6th ranked defense against the pass.  Add to that the absence of the Dolphins' hottest wide receiver over the past few week's, their pro bowl starting center, and one of their starting cornerbacks, and you get a team vulnerable at an extremely bad time.  The Ravens defense hasn't been this complete in years, and it simply matches up too well with Miami's available offensive weapons.  To lose this game, Joe Flacco will have to throw multiple interceptions, and the Ravens offense will have to be calamitously anemic. 

     Justin Tucker's ability to hit field goals from the 40 yard line has meant that the Ravens can steadily pile up points even if they only find the endzone once or twice in a game.  The Dolphin's comparative lack of success against the run will likely mean it will be tough to totally stop the Ravens from driving 4-6 times over the course of the game.  The teams that found the most success against the Ravens this season have been those with the ability to stop the run and force Joe Flacco to drop back to pass many more times than the Ravens would prefer, but if the Dolphins stack the box in order to stop the run, the Marty Mornhinweg will likely have Flacco hit Terrence West and Kenneth Dixon on short passes out of the backfield in order to spread out the Miami's defensive front, and then he'll probably have Flacco take deep shots downfield to whichever of the Ravens deep threats absolutely toasts a backup corner or is able to beat single man coverage.

    The playoff implications of this game are major to say the least.  If the Ravens can beat the Dolphins, they'll at the very least hold on to first place in the AFC North.  If the Giants can handle the Steelers and the Ravens handle their business, the Ravens will improve to 7-5 while the Steelers will find themselves 6-6 going into next week's tough road test against the Bills.  The Dolphins will still have a decent shot at a wildcard whether they win or lose, but a win would be huge given the divisional matchups still left on their schedule.  The Patriots are a daunting opponent for the Ravens next week, but their biggest weapon, Rob Gronkowski, was just put on injured reserve.  To add to that, the Patriots' second tight end, Martellus Bennett, has dealt with nagging injury issues lately and is no substitute for a healthy Gronk.  I might be getting ahead of myself as the Ravens must first face the Dolphins tomorrow before even THINKING about an upset in New England, but it only goes to show that the health and availability of players in the second half of the season is FAR more important than how dominant a team looked through the first 6-8 weeks.  Let's see what's in store for the rest of the league!

THE PICKS

CHIEFS AT FALCONS- The Chiefs are 8-3 but two of their three losses came on the road this season.  Matt Ryan has found incredible success against the Chiefs in the past, but this Chiefs team has turned in some surprisingly strong performances this season including last weeks overtime win in Denver.  The Falcons, however, present much bigger offensive challenges than the Broncos, and it's difficult to imagine the Chiefs being quite able to keep up offensively with Julio Jones and company. FALCONS 31-27

LIONS AT SAINTS- The Lions will be without their starting middle linebacker, and Drew Brees will capitalize.  The Lions haven't had a seriously convincing win in a long time and they're 2-3 on the road.  The Saints aren't exactly set to be playoff bound, but they can still go toe to toe with winning teams.  Drew Brees will likely have to win a shootout here.  SAINTS 34-28

RAMS AT PATRIOTS- I can't see an upset here, but I am curious to see just how easy it is for the Patriots to move the football on the Rams defense without Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett still not 100%.  The Pats, after all, only barely squeaked by a disappointing Jets team last week, and it's safe to say they don't look much like the team that destroyed the Bengals, Steelers, and Bills in a row earlier this season.  Tom Brady will find a way to win this game, but it'll tell us a lot about what the Ravens have ahead of them next weekend.  PATRIOTS 23-16

BRONCOS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars find ways to lose close games against quality teams.  The Broncos are playing for their playoff lives after a disappointing overtime loss to the Chiefs last week.  The Jags will struggle to move the ball on a team with a pass rush and secondary of this caliber.  BRONCOS 27-13

TEXANS AT PACKERS- It's difficult to know if Aaron Rodgers is really back in his old form or if the Eagles have truly fallen off of a cliff after last week's loss the Packers in Philly.  The Texans produced little in their 21-13 loss to the Chargers last week, and they won't have Jadeveon Clowney when they travel to Green Bay.  The Packers' season is already on life support as it is; they'll need to find a way to win this game to even have a PRAYER of a post-season berth.  PACKERS 23-20

EAGLES AT BENGALS- With a mere 3 wins at this point in the season, the Bengals are essentially ruled out of the playoff hunt.  That doesn't mean, however, that Marvin Lewis isn't still trying to prove that his team can turn the corner.  Without Ryan and Jordan Matthews the Eagles don't possess the weapons needed to win a road game against even the Bengals.  BENGALS 21-17

DOLPHINS AT RAVENS- The Dolphins are a resilient team with a ton of talent on both sides of the ball.  They are, however, going to be missing three too many key players tomorrow as their starting center, a starting cornerback, and their hottest wide receiver won't take the field in Baltimore.  The Ravens, on the other hand, haven't had this level of defensive weaponry healthy at the same time this season, and they're primed for a dominant performance at home against a somewhat banged up quality team that has just finished barely beating the Rams and 49ers.  The Ravens should find some success on the ground against the 30th ranked run defense in the NFL, and Flacco should be able to take some deep shots down field once the Ravens have established the run.  Justin Tucker should have another big day, but I expect the Ravens to find the endzone at least twice.  RAVENS 23-16

49ERS AT BEARS- Can anyone think of a worse game???  I can't see even the 49ers losing to a team starting Brian Hoyer.  49ERS 28-23

BILLS AT RAIDERS- I would LOVE to see the Bills beat the Raiders and build some momentum into their game against the Steelers next week, but it's hard to see that happening the way they've played lately.  Two narrow wins over the Bengals and Jaguars hardly suggests the Bills are ready to travel across the country and beat one of the best teams in the AFC.  The Raiders have, nevertheless, won games by razor thin margins all season, and this game likely won't be any different.  RAIDERS 24-21

GIANTS AT STEELERS- I'm not entirely sure what it is about the Steelers' recent performances that gives anyone the impression that they're still a dominant team.  Beating the Browns and an Andrew Luck-less Colts team doesn't give any indication of how the Steelers can do against a winning team at this point in the season.  The Giants defense has been phenomenal during their 6 game winning streak, and the G-men have some receivers that will be matchup nightmares for Steelers secondary.  Without Cameron Heyward the Steelers defense isn't nearly as tough, particularly against the run.  If the Steelers can win this game, then it's possible they truly have turned the corner from their 4-game slump that ended two weeks ago, but I doubt the Steelers have the pass defense to handle a receiving corps like that of the Giants.  GIANTS 24-21

REDSKINS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals don't have nearly enough in the tank to take down a team with an offense as good as Washington's.  REDSKINS 31-17

BUCCANEERS AT CHARGERS- I must say I was surprised to see the Bucs take it to the Seahawks last week.  The Chargers, on the other hand, are quite dangerous despite their losing record.  If it weren't for their hellacious schedule, the Chargers might be a 7-8 win team right now.  Traveling across the country is always difficult and the Chargers have beaten better teams than the Bucs.  This one should be interesting though.  CHARGERS 33-28

PANTHERS AT SEAHAWKS- The Panthers have had a poor season, but their road record is one of the biggest reasons it has been so depressing.  The Panthers are only 1-4 on the road, and the Seahawks are undefeated at home this season. SEAHAWKS 27-21

COLTS AT JETS- Andrew Luck's return will make the difference in a game where the Jets offense struggles to find much of a rhythm.  The Colts are only 2-3 on the road, but then again the Jets are only 1-4 at home.  COLTS 31-23

THIS IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR THAT THE RAVENS FIND THEIR GROOVE AND THRIVE. A 16 GAME SEASON ISN'T ABOUT HOW A TEAM DID THROUGH 6 WEEKS 8 WEEKS OR EVEN 10 WEEKS.  IT'S ABOUT DOING ENOUGH TO GET INTO THE PLAYOFFS AND GETTING HOT AT THE RIGHT TIME.  SUGGS AND DOOM ARE BACK IN ACTION TOGETHER, AND JIMMY SMITH IS READY TO SHUT DOWN ONE SIDE OF THE FIELD.  LET'S SEE TEAMS TRY TO MOVE THE BALL ON THESE BIRDS.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!





   

   

RAVENS BREAKDOWN AND WEEK 12 NFL PREDICTIONS

     Last week's game against the Cowboys confirmed two rather unfortunate things about the Ravens.  The first is that the Ravens have no corner besides Jimmy Smith who can match up against a big #1 wide receiver.  With Smith out, the Ravens had no answer for Dez Bryant.  It was a pick your poison situation as they chose to either bring a safety up to help stuff the run game and force Dak Prescott to throw the football or drop a safety back to give help to whomever covered Dez on any given play.  The move to stop the run was the wisest as running the football allows the Cowboys to more effectively control the clock.  Without Jimmy, however, Dez Bryant was able to complete catches and run over tacklers regardless of how tight he was covered by smaller corners.

     Because of the Ravens' choice to commit their resources to stuffing the run, little pressure was brought on Dak Prescott beyond the front 4, and at the same time, Dez Bryant was left in single coverage.  The Ravens were simply one playmaker short of being able to put up a legitimate defensive fight.  That brings us to the second unfortunate thing that last week's game confirmed: the Ravens offense still lacks consistency for more than one reason, and it hasn't been able to pick up the slack when the defense has had issues making stops.

     The Cowboys defense wasn't great, and the Ravens offense knifed quickly through it to score the game's first touchdown.  All three of the Ravens scores actually happened quite rapidly, which is why it was so frustrating that mistakes and penalties rooted in stupidity led to stalled drives.  Once Dallas got on an offensive roll, it became clear that they could potentially score on every drive from that point on.  It was, thus, vitally important that the Ravens offense take advantage of a relatively weak Dallas pass defense and a non-threatening pass rush to put points on the board and match the Cowboys score for score.  The Ravens ended up losing by ten points and came one scoring drive short of having a shot to win or tie the game with the ball in Joe's hands and slightly under two minutes left on the clock.  None of that mattered, however, because the Ravens knew full well that they had little hope of scoring 10 points with less than two minutes and zero timeouts left.  Even if they still clung to what little hope they may have had left, Joe and company played with zero urgency and fire on what ended up being their final drive.

    When Joe Flacco said to the media that the Ravens SHOULD have beaten the Cowboys, he meant that the opportunities were there and they simply didn't execute.  It certainly didn't mean that the Cowboys aren't a great team, but they're a defensively flawed team and one that the Ravens offense should have scored on with far more frequency.  There's no shame in losing to a nearly undefeated team on the road, but there is frustration that arises when the opportunities to beat that team presented themselves and were not taken advantage of by the players. 

     Jimmy Smith's absence isn't the only reason, however, that the Ravens didn't put up a better showing last weekend.  The absence of a pass rush without blitzing safeties, corners, or inside linebackers has been an issue for most of this season.  Elvis Dumervil's health issues and absence has meant reliance on an injured Terrell Suggs and rookie pass rusher Matt Judon to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Suggs has had decent pass rushing production, and Judon has had a respectable 3 sacks as well, but that's an incredible drop-off from the tandem production that Suggs and Dumervil produced when both men were healthy two seasons ago.  Without Suggs last year, Dumervil found himself fighting off far more double teams, and without Dumervil this year, Suggs has had to do a lot by himself.  Many people forget just how dire the corner and safety situation was in 2014, but the 29 combined sacks and incredible pressure brought by the tandem of Suggs and Dumervil made up for Jimmy Smith's absence and the lack of overall secondary talent to such a great degree that the Ravens were still able to finish 10-6 and beat the Steelers in the playoffs 31-17 in Pittsburgh. 

     It's difficult to know what, if anything, to expect from Elvis Dumervil as he potentially makes his return to the field either this week or next.  Off-season foot surgery meant a disappointingly long recovery period that appears as though it may finally be over.  Will Dumervil be the same dominant  player who racked up 17 sacks in 2014?  This week could answer that question, but it's still unclear as to whether or not he'll take the field.  Dumervil is a speed rusher who can be incredibly useful against mobile quarterbacks.  The rather impressive return of Suggs also means that Dumervil doesn't have to be on the field for all three downs.  He can, instead, simply come in on third downs as a pass rushing specialist, and that's how he's been most explosive and effective during his time in Baltimore.  Matt Judon's presence will also allow Dumervil to take a break if he needs it as Judon has proven a competent enough stand-in during Doom's rehab process.

     The potential increase in pressure off the edge could certainly help turn the tide in what has been another painful, albeit less so than last year's, season to watch.  There's a reason that pass rushers and corners are in such high demand.  If consistently given an extra second or two to throw the football, even an inexperienced or ineffective quarterback can put up big numbers.  That is why one other big factor may soon prove vital for the Ravens offense. 

     The Ravens once had a logjam at tight end at the beginning of this season.  Maxx Williams and Ben Watson have since been placed on injured reserve, and the Ravens were left only with two "move" tight ends who can barely block and only effectively catch passes.  Dennis Pitta has at numerous times disappointed me greatly with his unwillingness and inability to block.  I understand that his hip injury has likely made him wary of taking on bigger, more ferocious pass rushers, but seeing him literally step out of the way of Jamie Collins to allow a free run at Joe a few weeks ago made me never want to see #88 on the field again...well certainly not as a blocker. 

     Against the Cowboys I saw a similar lack of both effort and technique from Pitta who pathetically lunged at an edge rusher and then turned his body to watch as the athlete bore down on Flacco.  It reminded me of scared high school J.V. linemen who have not been properly taught pass protection footwork.  Pitta and his current backup, Darren Waller, are simply useless as blocking tight ends, and neither should be tasked with giving help to either offensive tackle.  That's where Nick Boyle comes in handy.  Boyle is just getting off of a 10 game suspension for violating the league's drug policy, and he's a much bigger, stronger, more competent blocker.  Boyle had also looked like arguably the Ravens most effective tight end when he found his way on to the field last season, so it's not as though he's a one trick pony.  Having a serious extra blocker on the field who can also serve as a receiving threat will help not only in giving Flacco time to find open speedy receivers downfield, but it will also undoubtedly help open up more holes in a running game that has been disappointing despite flashes of absolute brilliance from two extremely talented young running backs.

     The Bengals aren't nearly the opponent the Cowboys proved last week.  Cincinnati not only wasn't doing well before last weekend, but now they've lost both Giovanni Bernard and A.J. Green.  Green was the bane of the Ravens' existence for the past several seasons, and he and Bernard accounted for roughly 40% of the Bengals' receiving yards this season.  Tyler Boyd and Tyler Eifert will undoubtedly be tasked in picking up the slack, but the Bengals simply don't have the same firepower that they did in recent years without Green, Sanu, and Marvin Jones to spread the field.  The loss of Hue Jackson as offensive coordinator also has meant less creativity and production from Andy Dalton who flourished with Jackson's play-calling and offensive system.  The Bengals have lost a good number of close games, but this will be the first game where they'll be totally without their most elite weapon.  If the Ravens can't shut Dalton down and win this game, they don't deserve to be in the conversation of potential division winners and playoff teams.  The Steelers were given the gift of playing the Colts without Andrew Luck, and they snatched up the opportunity and took the win.  The Ravens have been given the gift of playing an already questionable Bengals team in Baltimore that now lacks both A.J. Green and Giovanni Bernard.  The Ravens need to take advantage of the opportunity, and add a win to their record to regain first place in the division.

     The Steelers actually have a tougher road ahead of them than they may have assumed earlier this season.  Both the Bills and Giants are far more dangerous teams than many assumed at the beginning of the season, and the Steelers will face the Giants next Sunday and then travel to Buffalo to face the Bills the week after that.  That could easily result in the Steelers dropping to 6-7 before they travel to Cincy to face the Bengals again.  The Ravens must handle their own business this weekend to improve to 6-5, and they face their own challenges in the next two weeks as the Dolphins will travel to Baltimore next weekend and the Ravens will then visit the Patriots in the following weekend.  It's a safe assumption that the Ravens won't beat the Patriots unless Tom Brady is injured somehow, so the Ravens MUST beat both the Bengals and Dolphins to finish the next three weeks 7-6 and a game up on the Steelers.  With pieces such as Nick Boyle and Elvis Dumervil potentially returning this weekend as well as the pending returns of Crockett Gillmore and Jimmy Smith, it's safe to say that the Ravens could get stronger on both sides of the ball in time to make a serious push to win the division.  The Ravens have not yet resembled a Super Bowl winning team, but they've been missing some players that could have very well turned close losses into narrow wins. One thing's for sure, with three division games left, a trip to Foxborough looming, and upcoming home games against formidable Dolphins and Eagles teams, the Ravens are going to have to EARN their way into the post-season.

     Regardless of how things shake out, the Ravens are still in a much better spot than they were at this point last season.  They're undefeated in their own division with a good chance to remain that way through this weekend, and they will hopefully once again be leading their division after tomorrow.  Some of the losses have been easily avoidable such as that against the Raiders and Redskins, but losses during the regular season at least serve some kind of function.  Losses force a team to evaluate its weaknesses.  Losses force teams to try creative things they may have otherwise not considered.  Were it not for three straight losses in 2012, the Ravens would not have fired their offensive coordinator, and they likely wouldn't have gone on to make their legendary second Super Bowl run.  If there's one thing that many of the Ravens trips to the playoffs have shown, it's that this team simply needs to get in...and then they always seem to do some serious damage.  Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!

WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
    
TITANS AT BEARS- The Titans are a decent team and the Bears have lost all hope.  Not a whole lot else to discuss here.  TITANS 27-10

JAGUARS AT BILLS- The Jaguars have played several close games against decent teams this year, but the Bills are likely getting Sammy Watkins back this weekend, and they were already going to flatten the Jags even without him.  BILLS 34-17

BENGALS AT RAVENS- I don't have a tremendous amount of faith in the Ravens secondary without Jimmy Smith in the lineup, but the Bengals are not the Cowboys.  The Bengals will rely on Brandon LaFell, Tyler Boyd, Jeremy Hill, and Tyler Eifert to try to move the ball, but the won't have the major mismatch of A.J. Green that could have been devastating to the Ravens in Jimmy Smith's absence.  The Bengals have won only a single road game this season, and it came against a useless Jets team because of a missed easy field goal from the Jets' kicker.  Since then, the Bengals have been outscored 108-67 on the road, and each of those losses occurred while the Bengals still had A.J. Green to stretch the field.  The Bengals will also likely be without their starting strong safety, Shawn Williams, and their #2 free safety, Derron Smith when they face a handful of speedy Ravens receivers and talented running backs.  Cincinnati also has one of the worst rushing defense in the league as they rank 28th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game.  That should theoretically allow the Ravens to sustain drives and control the clock.  The Bengals also rank 22nd in the league in sacks, and that should help keep Joe upright long enough to connect on some big passes downfield.  This won't be as lopsided as the Ravens' recent victory over the Browns, but it should be solid enough not to give fans in Baltimore a collective heart attack in the 4th quarter.  RAVENS 24-16

CARDINALS AT FALCONS- The Cardinals defense won't be enough to carry this team as Carson Palmer finally appears to be fading in his advanced age.  After a rocky stretch over the past month against some quality teams, expect the Falcons to make a statement by flattening the Cardinals in their return home to Atlanta.  FALCONS 35-21

GIANTS AT BROWNS- Yawn.  GIANTS 28-13

RAMS AT SAINTS- The Rams have lost a good number of painfully close defensive battles.  The Saints don't have much defense, but they've got enough offense to make this an interesting game.  Ultimately, it's difficult to see Drew Brees dropping this one at home to a 4-win team.  SAINTS 33-28

49ERS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins win streak may end sometimes soon, but it certainly won't end this weekend.  The 49ers are basically on the level of the Browns at this point, and their lone win is the only thing keeping them from the first overall pick in the next year's draft.  No way the Dolphins lose this one at home.  DOLPHINS 30-13

CHARGERS AT TEXANS- Despite some impressive flashes this season, the Chargers are only a 4-6 team with a 1-4 record on the road.  Meanwhile, the Texans are 5-0 at home, and probably SHOULD have beaten the Raiders last week in Oakland.  I doubted them earlier in the season, and I wasn't alone in doing so.  This Texans team, however, is finally coming alive even without J.J. Watt.  The Texans are far worse on the road, but they're not playing on the road this week.  TEXANS 24-21

SEAHAWKS AT BUCCANEERS- As well as the Cowboys have done this season, the Seahawks are probably the NFL's best, most complete team.  No other team possesses the same offensive AND defensive firepower as Seattle, and the Buccaneers won't be able to match them in any facet of the game. Despite commanding wins over the Bears and Chiefs over the past two weeks, the Buccaneers don't have what it takes to put up big numbers on a team that beat the Patriots in Foxborough. SEAHAWKS 26-20

PANTHERS AT RAIDERS- The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 games, but they won't be able to beat the Raiders in Oakland--especially not without Luke Kuechly.  This is a game where the Panthers will find themselves essentially outgunned.  It's difficult to win games 3000 miles from home, but beating a much better team 3000 miles from home is a far tougher challenge.  RAIDERS 33-21

PATRIOTS AT JETS- It doesn't really matter that Tom Brady is a game-time decision against the Jets.  If Jimmy Garoppolo starts, the Patriots still have more than enough weapons to trounce the poor Jets.  I hope, however, this is one of those bizarre upset games that no one sees coming.  Not counting on that though.  PATRIOTS 38-13

CHIEFS AT BRONCOS- The Chiefs have a respectable 3-2 road record, but the Broncos are 4-1 at home.  Divisional matchups are always difficult to predict, but Alex Smith will find it difficult to move the ball with a rather suffocating Broncos defense collapsing the pocket as he struggles to suck wind a mile above sea level.  This should, nevertheless, be one of the best games of the day.  BRONCOS 23-21

PACKERS AT EAGLES- The Packers are an incredible disappointment, but they'll be facing the Eagles without Ryan Matthews who is suffering from what is being described as an MCL sprain.  With any luck, the Ravens won't have to face Matthews in three weeks... The Packers are getting back a pair of starting defenders.  Aaron Rodgers is 1-4 on the road this season, and winning this game might not fix their season, but it certainly will boost morale.  Ryan Matthews' absence takes away a running back with 7 touchdowns on the season.  Darren Sproles is dealing with a rib injury, but he'll likely try to play anyway.  I won't be surprised if the Eagles pull of the win regardless, but I have a feeling they've lost too much in their running game to outscore a Packers team that can still put up a decent number of points.  Carson Wentz started out with over a 100 passer rating in 3 of his first four games, but he has averaged a 72.3 passer rating in the 6 weeks that have followed.  PACKERS 24-20

IT MAY NOT MEAN A TON TO BEAT UP ON THE BENGALS WITHOUT A.J. GREEN AND GIOVANNI BERNARD, BUT IN THIS LEAGUE ONE MUST TAKE ANY WIN THEY CAN GET.  LET'S HOPE THE RAVENS CAN HANDLE BUSINESS AT HOME.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

WEEK 11 NFL PREDICTIONS

     There are two ways in my estimation to think about this Ravens-Cowboys game if you're a Ravens fan.  The first is that losing this game wouldn't be the end of the world.  Even if the Ravens lose and the Steelers beat the Browns (which they almost certainly will) the Ravens still own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers and, thus, first place in the division regardless of what happens this weekend.  The second way of thinking about this game is far hungrier--far more spirited. This is a fantastic chance for Baltimore to prove itself against one of the league's best teams. 

     It's not uncommon to hear that a team is what its record says it is, but that statement can be misinterpreted.  A team's regular season record gives an observer an idea of just how successful a team has been up until this point, but it does little to express the current strength of the team.  There are far too many commentators and pundits that look at 8-1 and see a nearly flawless team because of a nearly flawless record.  The Cowboys have certainly demonstrated a consistent degree of strength for months now, but last week saw them brought to the brink by a team on a losing streak that now stretches back an entire month. 

     Not only did the Steelers bring the Cowboys nearly to the brink of defeat, but they did so without the offensive firepower Pittsburgh has enjoyed over the past few season.  Antonio Brown is still a premier receiver, but Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant's absence has allowed opposing teams to double and triple team Brown because they haven't needed to focus nearly as much attention at the likes of Darius Heyward-Bey, Sammie Coates, and Eli Rogers.  Without the same caliber offensive weapons the Steelers needed to rely on an inconsistent defensive unit to bottle up one of the league's most potent offenses.  Until Cameron Heyward became injured, that Steelers defense did exactly that.

     Why was it that the Cowboys suddenly looked as though they were going to lose after beating 5 consecutive non-divisional opponents by an average of over two touchdowns?  Injuries.  Injuries to the offensive line made rushing more difficult for most of the game, and injuries to the secondary allowed the Cowboys defense to hemorrhage passing yards and touchdowns to the Steelers.  Suddenly the Cowboys face a Ravens team coming off of an extended rest period, and the Cowboys still have critical injuries to their secondary and nagging injuries to their left offensive tackle.  Are the Cowboys at the same strength now as they were when they destroyed the Packers or Bengals?  It would appear not, but they were strong enough to keep their winning streak alive on the road last week, and that fact can't be discounted.  So I guess the phrase should be "you are what your record and injury report say you are."

    The Ravens aren't without injuries of their own.  Left guard Alex Lewis isn't slated to return until the last game of the season, and the both Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil are listed as doubtful.  The Ravens defense hasn't had a healthy Dumervil all season, but Jimmy Smith is an integral cog in the works of the NFL's top rated defensive unit.  We'll see if he suits up after all on Sunday.  For now, however, let's take a look at what is likely to happen across the league!

THE PICKS

STEELERS AT BROWNS- The Steelers run defense is far worse without Cameron Heyward, but he won't be required to beat the Browns.  The Steelers offense put up over 440 yards of offense against a better defense last week, and they'll likely torch the lowest rated defense in football this week.  A word of caution for the Steelers though: conditions in Cleveland will be incredibly windy with gusts in excess of 30 miles per hour.  Joe Haden and high winds could limit Antonio Brown's production, so Pittsburgh will need to lean on Le'Veon Bell.  I simply can't see Big Ben losing this game, but it could be far closer than most would expect, but black and yellow should pull away late.  STEELERS 27-17

RAVENS AT COWBOYS- I was not impressed with the Cowboys for nearly the first three quarters of last week's game against the Steelers.  I've said for over a month to friends and readers that the Cowboys are the elite team that the Ravens were designed to beat.  The Cowboys run the football, but the Ravens stuff the run.  Dak Prescott has been efficient, safe, and effective, but he's never had to carry the team on his back.  The Ravens tend to feast on rookie quarterbacks, and this certainly is not the most talented one they've faced.  Dak has not yet gone against a safety like Eric Weddle, and his biggest weapon, Dez Bryant will be playing with a recently aggravated nagging back injury that limited him to a single catch against the Browns two weeks ago.  The Ravens haven't lost a game with a healthy Ronnie Stanley, and they've never lost to the Cowboys.  The Cowboys don't provide a particularly threatening pass rush, and Flacco has come alive as of late running a no-huddle offense.  The Ravens simply have too much speed between Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, and a recently reactivated a 6'6" tight end who ran a 4.46 forty yard dash at the NFL combine in 2015, Darren Waller.  Steve Smith Sr. will make a team pay if it fails to commit to stop him, and Dennis Pitta is still liable to find soft spots in an opposing defense for some clutch plays.  The Cowboys secondary is vulnerable, but the Ravens may actually find success on the ground as well.  Kenneth Dixon is a chain moving beast.  His return to health and his skill not only running the football but also catching passes could prove to be the big difference between the Baltimore offense of earlier this season and the one that crushed the Browns in the second half last week.  This Ravens team is rested, it's revamped, and ready to go.  I know full well that this is a quality opponent with a lot of offensive firepower, but they showed their weaknesses last week, and simply don't have enough defensively to match up with one of the fastest receiving corps in football.  The more I look at the stats and relevant stats for this game, the more I like Baltimore's chances.  This is going to be an amazing game.  RAVENS 27-23.

JAGUARS AT LIONS- The Jaguars almost don't have anything to play for and the Lions are a decent team playing at home...hmmmm, this is a tough one.  LIONS 28-13

TITANS AT COLTS- The Titans have a better record than the Colts, but the Colts finally have all of their starting offensive pieces healthy and ready to go.  The Colts beat the Titans in Nashville earlier this season, and they should be able to edge Tennessee once more in Indy.  This won't be a blowout though as the Titans have absolutely improved since the last time these two teams met.  COLTS 33-24

BILLS AT BENGALS- The Bengals defense is starting to look tired and slow, and A.J. Green is not enough without Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu to make this offense truly dynamic anymore.  Expect a big game from Lesean McCoy and a good amount of pressure on Andy Dalton to force some unfortunate errant throws...well only unfortunate if you're a Bengals fan.  This loss would drop Cincy to 3-6-1, and it would mean they'd have to win out to have a chance to win their division--something they're not likely to do.  It was nice knowing ya, Marvin Lewis.  BILLS 31-20

BUCCANEERS AT CHIEFS- The Chiefs defense is too strong to lose this game at home.  The Buccaneers do have a strong road record though, and they'll likely make this a game.  CHIEFS 30-21

BEARS AT GIANTS- The Giants will improve to 7-3 with a huge win over a miserable Bears team this week.  Eli Manning is finding his rhythm, and his defense is playing well enough to give the offense plenty of opportunities to put up points.  GIANTS 28-13

CARDINALS AT VIKINGS- The Cardinals defense won't allow the abysmal Vikings offense to move the football.  The Cardinals offense, however, has just enough firepower to win this game.  CARDINALS 17-13

DOLPHINS AT RAMS- There will be a day sooner or later when the Dolphins lose another game, but it will NOT be tomorrow.  The Dolphins have won some impressive games over the course of their current four game winning streak, and the Rams are significantly worse than 3 our of 4 of the opponents they just beat.  DOLPHINS 31-16

PATRIOTS AT 49ERS- The 49ers have had the occasional close game with a quality opponent, but at this point they're 1-8 and haven't a prayer of outscoring the Patriots.  San Francisco's defense is absolutely horrible, and will get shredded by the Patriots even without Gronk.  I feel bad for Torrey Smith as he's putting up the worst receiving stats of his career with only 243 receiving yards and two touchdowns on the season.  I bet he's homesick... PATRIOTS 42-21

EAGLES AT SEATTLE- The Eagles have only beaten one team on the road this season, and it was the horrendous Bears.  The Seahawks actually have my vote as the strongest team in football, and they'll go to town on the Eagles at home.  Seattle was able to keep the PATRIOTS out of the endzone for an end-of-game goal line stand.  Russell Wilson is playing at a scary high level, and his defense is getting back to its old, dominant form.  SEAHAWKS 33-20

PACKERS AT REDSKINS- The Packers have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Redskins are on a tear.  The skins defense isn't strong enough to make this a blowout, but the Packers defense has given up a disturbing number of points to opposing teams over the last 5 weeks.  Mike McCarthy will likely lose his job if the Packers keep losing.  REDSKINS 31-28

TEXANS AT RAIDERS- The Texans' record of 6-3 might seem only slightly worse than the Raiders' 7-2, but the Raiders have serious wins over contending teams.  The Texans have narrow wins over mediocre and plain bad opponents.  The Texans offense simply won't be able to keep up with that of the Raiders, especially not on the road.  RAIDERS 34-23

THE IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER IS THAT NOTHING CAN KNOCK THE RAVENS OUT OF FIRST PLACE IN THEIR DIVISION THIS WEEKEND.  THIS IS A FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY FOR THE RAVENS DEFENSE TO SHOW IT CAN PERFORM AGAINST EVEN A TOP OFFENSE, AND IT'S AN EVEN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE RAVENS OFFENSE TO SHOW TO CAN BE PRODUCTIVE AGAINST SERIOUS TEAMS.  WHATEVER HAPPENS TOMORROW, LET'S HOPE THE RAVENS SHOW THEY'RE GETTING BETTER.  THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THAT THEY TYPICALLY FIND THEIR RHYTHM. 

NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!