The biggest, most common error in predicting NFL games is to base a prediction on the comparison of two opposing teams' records. The second biggest, most common error is to base a prediction on a team's reputation. I was recently asked by a man from another country why NFL teams don't have dynasties the way professional soccer and basketball teams often tend to do. I cited the comparatively prohibitive salary cap as a reason NFL teams can't hold on to a particular roster for more than a couple of years, but the greatest reason is the violent nature of the sport.
A team is only as good as the players it puts on the field on any given week, and injuries are dramatically more common and severe in the NFL than they are in professional soccer and basketball. Sure, it's possible to tear one's ACL or collide with another player in low-impact activities, but the injury report of an NFL roster is a constantly evolving entity. The team that comes out on top in pro football isn't necessarily the one that looked most dominant over the course of the season, but instead it's often the team that entered the post-season with the healthiest, strongest roster.
Sometimes a team can go much of the regular season without major integral pieces to their lineup, and then an impact player returns healthy and raring to go just in time for week 1 of the playoffs. That certainly happened for the Giants in 2011/2012 season as Osi Umeniyora returned to give the Giants a major pass rushing boost just in time to help them upset the reigning champion Packers and ultimately overcome the Patriots in one of the most gripping Super Bowls ever played.
The Ravens experienced a similar boost the following season as Bryant McKinney returned as left tackle which shifted Michael Oher back over to his natural right tackle position. The Ravens, however, also had a host of other major changes that led to their upswing in performance during the post-season. Many forget that Anquan Boldin actually had a torn meniscus and had to sit out the final two games of the season. Boldin fought mightily through the pain of his torn meniscus all throughout the regular season, but getting the knee scoped and having two weeks to heal led to an incredible rejuvenation of his ability to dominate as soon as the first game of the playoffs arrived. Boldin embarrassed the Colts with a 155 receiving yard performance, and he ultimately led all receivers through the playoffs in yardage and touchdowns.
The post-season has not yet arrived, and the Ravens have not yet solidified their status as AFC North champions. They are, however, getting healthy in time for what many assumed would be the toughest stretch on their schedule. There's no question that playing the Patriots in Foxboro typically represents one of the biggest challenges in professional sports. The Pats have maintained an incredibly high standard of performance for an unfathomable amount of time given the amount of roster turnover from year to year in the NFL. The Patriots also bolster one of the best, if not THE best, home-field advantages in the league. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have also often found a way to win football games in the absence of key personnel. They won without Tom Brady for three out of their first four games, and won last week despite the absence of Rob Gronkowski. It's important, however, that we consider exactly who the Patriots beat without Gronk, and how they've fared since the All-Pro tight tend first injured himself against the Seahawks.
The Patriots haven't lost a game since facing Seattle four weeks ago, but their schedule since then hasn't exactly been daunting. After the Seahawks, the Patriots faced the 49ers, the Jets, and the Rams. Those teams have COMBINED for a total of 8 wins, while the Ravens destroyed a red-hot Dolphins team last week that has 7 wins. Beating up on the Dolphins doesn't mean the Ravens are invincible from here on out, but it illustrates perfectly the point that a team's record means far less than the current status and health of their players as well as their most recent performances. The Dolphins, for example, had just managed to barely beat two of the same bottom-feeding opponents that the Patriots faced in recent weeks in the 49ers and Rams. When we took the injury issues of Miami into consideration and factored in the return of Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil as well as blocking tight end Nick Boyle, it wasn't difficult to predict a solid win for Baltimore.
The Patriots certainly handled the 49ers and Rams far better than the Dolphins did, but they struggled to pull away from a reeling Jets team. Part of that can be attributed to divisional familiarity, but another part was undoubtedly Gronk's limitation and ultimately his exit due to his back injury that turned out to require surgery for a bulging disk. Many assumed that former Pro Bowl tight end Martellus Bennett would help mitigate the damage of Gronk's exit, but Bennett was ultimately forced to leave the game as well. Tom Brady, instead, utilized a solid 91 yard rushing performance from the combo of LaGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis along with decent receiving production from Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and rookie Malcolm Mitchell. All 5 of those players will take the field Monday night, but not one of them represents an elite receiving or rushing threat. Sure, Blount has over 900 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, but much of that has been due to teams committing so much of their personnel to stopping the likes of Gronk.
The Ravens have faced Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Jay Ajayi, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper, Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson, O'Dell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Allen Hurns, and Jarvis Landry. Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, LaGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, and a hobbled Martellus Bennett don't exactly leave the Ravens shaking in their cleats. The Dolphins, for example, ended up having all three of their potent wide receiver trio last week along with an incredibly talented Jay Ajayi. Ajayi showed burst and the ability to break tackles, but he was still held to 61 yards. The Dolphins secondary that ranked 9th in the league had absolutely no answer for the Ravens receiving corps. Joe Flacco spread the ball out to a total of 10 receivers, and four of those receivers had in excess of 50 yards with Dennis Pitta leading the way at 90. It didn't matter that the likes of Cameron Wake and Ndamakong Suh attempted to get to Flacco's blind side all day; the Ravens kept Joe clean and Marty Mornhinweg prepared an ingenious play script designed to attack the middle of the field with tight ends while stretching the secondary with speedy wide receivers. The Dolphins couldn't key in on any particular player because Joe spread the ball out so incredibly evenly. It was a pick-your-poison situation.
The Patriots in Foxboro are unquestionably a more difficult opponent than the Dolphins playing in Baltimore. Bill Belichick is the craftiest coach of a generation, possibly of all time. The Patriots are 10-2 and leading their division. They rank in the top ten in both offense and defense, and they're tied in points allowed on the season with none other than the Baltimore Ravens. That hasn't stopped, however, the likes of the 49ers and Jets from keeping scores close with the Patriots all the way up until 4th quarters of their respective games. The Patriots, for example, only led the 49ers 13-10 entering the 4th quarter, and they entered the 4th quarter 13-10 against the Jets too. Credit must be given to the Patriots for winning, but the loss of Gronkowski has certainly taken away the edge and killer instinct the Patriots had earlier this season when they beat up on the Steelers, Texans, and Bills.
From a statistical standpoint, the Patriots averaged 34 points per game with Brady and Gronkowski both playing and healthy. Once Gronk took the hellacious shot that ultimately led to the premature end to his season, the Patriots' scoring average dropped to 25.5 points per game. The Ravens defense, meanwhile, has absolutely suffocated opponents recently. Without Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil, the Ravens struggled to stop Dez Bryant and get pressure on Dak Prescott. Dumervil's return the following week led to a ferocious upswing in pressure on Andy Dalton, and Jimmy Smith's return the week after that led to a nearly flawless defensive shutdown of a Dolphins offense with an impressive array of weapons. Now the Ravens face a Patriots team with fewer impact offensive players that has struggled to pull away from some absolutely horrible teams as of late.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that it's unwise to bet against the Patriots at home, but the Ravens must've missed the memo on that one. Joe Flacco is 2-2 against the Patriots in the playoffs, and even in losses, Flacco has played as well or better than Brady. Let's for a second, examine the last loss to the Patriots, shall we? The Ravens last lost to the Pats in the playoffs of the 2014 season, and mismatch issues were glaring. The Ravens twice held 14 point leads, but their stable of cornerbacks simply couldn't stop the likes of Edelman, Amendola, and Brandon LaFell. Gronkowkski was healthy and dominant with 108 receiving yards, and the combination of Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis helped to halt key Ravens drives. Baltimore ultimately fell short as Flacco threw a game-sealing pick intended for Torrey Smith who disappointingly and lazily didn't make a serious attempt to either catch the ball of bat down the pass. Jimmy Smith wasn't active as his season had ended months earlier with a foot injury, and the Ravens were left starting an ailing Lardarius Webb and undrafted rookie Rashaan Melvin at corner.
Now compare THAT matchup to THIS matchup. No Gronkowski, no LaFell, and no Darrelle Revis. Jamie Collins is gone, and unlike that last matchup two seasons ago, the Ravens defense is absolutely stacked and healthy. The Ravens added the top rated safety in the league, Eric Weddle, they got Jimmy Smith back healthy, and drafted starting corner Tavon Young who has played energetic, inspired football for months now. Even Lardarius Webb has elevated his game as of late in his conversion to safety as he snagged what could easily be considered the interception of the year last week at the edge of the endzone. Jimmy Smith has sometimes struggled against Edelman, but Tavon Young should stay with him quite well as he has been a fantastic match for smaller, shifty receivers. Smith will easily lock down the likes of Malcolm Mitchell or Chris Hogan, and whichever corner is stuck opposite of whomever Tavon and Jimmy aren't covering will likely receive safety help.
I don't wish to belabor the point, but Rob Gronkowski's absence coupled with Martellus Bennett's injuries mean there isn't a tight end on the Patriots' roster that will require a double team. That is incredibly huge for the Ravens as it should free them up to get more creative with blitzing safeties and linebackers. Tom Brady has worked to increase his mobility in recent years, but he's still not fast enough to evade the likes of Suggs, Dumervil, and Matt Judon (hell, even Timmy Jernigan). The Ravens tend to struggle more against mobile quarterbacks such as Derek Carr and Dak Prescott. Traditional pocket passers are sitting ducks against this Ravens defense when it's healthy...which it is.
With all of that said, this is sure to be the game of the week and possible one of the best games of the year. The Patriots have all but stamped their ticket to the post season as they sit three games ahead of the second place team in their division with only 4 weeks left in the regular season. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will, nevertheless, be hungry to win in order to secure the #1 seed and home-field advantage through the playoffs. Both the Chiefs and Raiders currently have 10 wins, and a Patriots win on Monday night would put New England at 11-2 with tough matchups against the Broncos, Jets, and Dolphins remaining. The Patriots, in other words, don't NEED this win, but they certainly want it.
The Ravens don't necessarily need a win this weekend to get into the playoffs or even to win their division. The Broncos once appeared a lock to make the playoffs, but key injuries have left them 4-4 in their last 8 games after a red-hot 4-0 start to the season. More importantly, the Broncos win last week was an uninspired 20-10 victory over one of the worst teams in the league. The Broncos are currently 8-4 and one game ahead of the Ravens, but the Broncos face the Titans, Patriots, Chiefs, and Raiders to finish their season and they could easily go 1-3 or even 0-4 during that stretch to finish 8-8 or 9-7. The Ravens' remaining schedule isn't a cakewalk, but two of the four teams left on their schedule are teams they've already beaten soundly, and the Eagles are now one of the worst teams in the league after having dropped 7 of their last 9 games including last week's embarrassing 32-14 loss to the equally disappointing Bengals. The Ravens would need only to handle the Eagles and then one of their other remaining opponents to finish 9-7, and that could very well secure the a wildcard spot ahead of the Broncos.
If the Ravens can manage to beat the Patriots, Eagles, and Steelers, they will have clinched their division and a home playoff game. They could, in that scenario, sit their starters against the Bengals to get as healthy as possible leading into a post-season run exactly the way they did in 2012. The Ravens could also beat the Eagles, Steelers, and Bengals but lose to the Patriots and still win the division, but that wouldn't afford them the ability to sit their starters in the final week of the regular season. One thing is clear now though: the Ravens no longer necessarily need to win their division to secure a spot in the post-season.
Almost just as important as securing a playoff berth will be showing themselves and the league that the Ravens can beat a top team on the road in a hostile, playoff style, road environment. The low for Monday night will be 27 degrees with no precipitation. Baltimore City is no stranger to cold weather, so the Ravens tend not to find themselves overwhelmed by playing in the cold, but this will certainly be a test for many of the rookie starters. Tom Brady is still one of the absolute best in the game, and he passes with surgical precision and a lightning fast release. The Ravens will, themselves have to execute at a high level to score on a quality Patriots defense. This game isn't about fearing defeat at the hands of an elite team. The Ravens have faced the most elite teams in the league all season. This is about proving this team is worthy of a post-season run, and I know that every single player in purple is excited to show the country just how this team can be. And now let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
STEELERS AT BILLS- There was a time in the not-too-distant past where I thought this would be a great chance for the Steelers to lose. After the Bills' epic collapse in Oakland last week, however, I no longer regard them as a major threat to take down the Steelers. The Steelers didn't exactly blow anyone away with their performance against the Giants, but they played well enough to beat an 8-3 team, and that's still a serious accomplishment. The Steelers defense is starting to step up a bit, and their offense is beginning to regain its footing after the midseason skid. I'll be rooting for Tyrod to bounce back, but my brain tells me the Steelers will get their 8th win this weekend. I reeeeally hope I'm wrong about this one. STEELERS 27-20
BRONCOS AT TITANS- The Broncos have been the better team this season, but the Titans have scored the 8th most points in the NFL this season, and they'll face a Broncos missing its starting inside linebacker and a starting quarterback dealing with some injury issues of his own. With Brandon Marshal out, expect the Titans to run DeMarco Murray right at the vaunted Broncos defense. The Broncos are so desperate at the running back position that they signed poor Justin Forsett who has already been cut by two other teams this season, thus proving that he truly has passed his brief, but inspiring prime with the Ravens in 2014. The Broncos defense will fight valiantly, but their offense likely won't be able to put up enough points to beat a strong Titans offense in Nashville. TITANS 24-21
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- The Redskins have struggled a bit as of late, but they've played far more difficult opponents than they nearly useless Eagles. Ryan Matthews extended absence with a badly sprained MCL leaves the Eagles with too few weapons to beat a quality opponent. Hell, they weren't winning games BEFORE Matthews went down. The Redskins offense will put up a monster first half that the Eagles simply won't be able to overcome. REDSKINS 34-20
CARDINALS AT DOLPHINS- Despite their win last week over the Redskins, the Cardinals have still dropped 3 of their last 5 games and 2 of their last 3. More importantly, the only team they've beaten on the road this season was the 49ers. The Dolphins will be looking to rebound after a crushing road loss last week, and with Tyrann Mathieu contemplating surgery on this shoulder, Tannehill should have an easier time moving the football. Kiko Alonso and Mario Williams will both be out for this game so it's on the Dolphins offense to simply outgun that of the Cardinals. Miami is a terrific home team, and the Cardinals have basically no shot at the playoffs. DOLPHINS 26-19.
CHARGERS AT PANTHERS- It's been another one of those years for the Chargers. They're good enough to hang with winning teams, but they have lost a ton of one score games. In fact, now that I look at it, the Chargers have had arguably the toughest schedule in the NFL. The Panthers will again be without Luke Kuechly again, and I have a feeling Philip Rivers will simply outpace their scoring. The Panthers don't have good enough defensive backs to slow down Rivers and company. CHARGERS 28-21
BENGALS AT BROWNS- I'm interested to see what RG3 does, but I can't see the Browns breaking their losing streak against a Bengals team that is unquestionably better. Familiarity, especially with Hue Jackson, keeps this one close. BENGALS 23-17
BEAR AT LIONS- The Lions have actually shaped up to be a pretty serious team. The Bear's should consider tanking the rest of the season in order to hopefully draft their next franchise QB. LIONS 30-14
TEXANS AT COLTS- The Colts with Andrew Luck healthy appear to be back in business. The Texans, on the other hand, appear to be trending sharply downward. The Texans beat the Colts in Houston earlier this season 26-23, but this matchup in Indy should tilt in the Colts' favor. COLTS 31-24
VIKINGS AT JAGUARS- The Vikings may not be what they had hoped they'd be at this point in the season, but they're unquestionably stronger than the Jags. VIKINGS 24-13
JETS AT 49ERS- Oh for the love of god. Why wasn't this game cancelled? Do I HAVE to pick a winner? Both teams looked useless in their games last week. I guess Ryan Fitzpatrick liable to have a decent game every now and then and his receivers might be able to put something together against a terrible 49ers secondary. JETS 21-17
SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS- Drew Brees and company area fading fast. Jameis Winston, by contrast, has put together a 4-game winning streak that featured two major wins over two top NFC playoff contenders in the Chiefs and Seahawks. The Saints have lost three of their last 4 games and are nearly mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. New Orleans is also 2-3 on the road this season. BUCCANEERS 33-28
FALCONS AT RAMS- The Falcons are still in the hunt for the playoffs at 7-5. They should have more than enough firepower to outscore a Rams team that ranks dead last in the NFL in offensive production. FALCONS 38-17
SEAHAWKS AT PACKERS- I'm not buying the Packers' recent success as an indication that Aaron Rodgers has finally gotten back on track. The Eagles proved last week in their blowout loss to the Bengals that they're easily one of the worst teams in the league, so Green Bay's win in Philly shouldn't mean much about the strength of the Pack. The Packers' win last week over the Texans doesn't impress me much either considering it was in the snow in Green Bay against a team that usually practices in Texas weather. Rodgers may be able to take advantage of Earl Thomas' absence, but I can't see the Packers' defense stopping Russell Wilson and his superior group of offensive weapons. SEAHAWKS 35-26
COWBOYS AT GIANTS- The Giants likely need only to win two of their four remain games in order to earn a playoff berth. The problem is that they have 3 divisional games and the Lions remaining. The Cowboys are better than when they faces Eli and company in Week 1. Dak Prescott has quickly evolved into an efficient, dynamic playmaker. The Giants defense doesn't have what it takes, especially without Jason Pierre Paul, to content with the likes of the Cowboys O line. The Cowboys will simply outlast the Giants the way they have with everyone else. COWBOYS 28-24
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS- The Patriots have been an excellent team this season, but they're simply not a good matchup for the Ravens with their current level of health. Gronkowski's absence and Martellus Bennett's ineffectiveness due to injuries means that the Patriots have nursed tiny leads against horrible teams over the last 3 weeks. The Ravens are as healthy as they've been all season, and when they're healthy, they don't lose. LaGarrette Blount won't find success running against the Ravens defensive front on first or second down. Blount's 13 rushing TDs came almost exclusively while Rob Gronkowski was on the field to draw away linebacker coverage. While Gronk played through the first 9 games, Blount scored 12 touchdowns. In the last three weeks, however, Blount has been held to a total of one rushing touchdown. If Blount couldn't pound the ball in against the 49ers and Jets, how in the world could fans expect him to do so against the Ravens? Eleven of the Patriots' twenty-three passing touchdowns this season were completed to players who are either currently injured or done for the season. The remaining 4 receivers combine for 12 touchdowns this season, and Malcolm Mitchell is the only one with more than a single touchdown catch over the past three weeks. The Ravens pass rushers will feast on Brady as he no longer has a single elite target to which he can consistently throw on third down. Edelman, Hogan, and Mitchell make up one of the least daunting receiving trios the Ravens have faced this season. Steve Smith Sr., Mike Wallace, and Breshad Perriman, on the other hand, will make life hell for the Patriots if they can't find a way to get to Joe Flacco quickly and often. Oh, and if the Dolphins vaunted pass rushers couldn't get to Flacco with the way his offensive line has been protecting him recently, don't expect the Patriots to be able to do it--especially after they let go of Jamie Collins weeks ago. These teams might meet against in the playoffs, and the Patriots might be healthier at that point, but at this moment, the Ravens are the stronger team...they've just gotta prove it. Oh, and I fully expect 4 critical field goals from Justin Tucker. Call me a homer, but I simply don't see the weapons necessary to move the ball consistently on this Ravens defense.
RAVENS 26-20
THIS IS WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT, RAVENS FANS. JOE, TERRELL AND THE BOYS ENTERING HOSTILE ENEMY TERRITORY AND BATTLING FOR AFC DOMINANCE. THERE'S NO BETTER LATE-SEASON RIVALRY IN FOOTBALL THE RAVENS AND PATRIOTS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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