Just when the Ravens virtually as healthy as possible, Jimmy Smith sprains his ankle in the first quarter of a road game against the Patriots. My entire prediction was predicated on the idea that the Patriots simply wouldn't have enough weapons to match up with a totally healthy Ravens defense, and that may have ultimately ended up being the case were it not for Smith's early exit. The Patriots' game-sealing touchdown, in fact, may very well not have happened if Smith was on the field at that point in the game as Lardarius Webb would have still been at free safety, Weddle at strong safety, Jimmy and Tavon on the outside, with Wright or Powers at nickel corner. With Smith out, the Ravens had Shareece Wright and Tavon Young at corner, Webb at nickel, Weddle at free safety, and Matt Elam at strong. Elam is nearly useless at this point in his disappointing career, why the Ravens kept him and not Terrence Brooks is a mystery I may never fully solve. Elam simply isn't athletically equipped to drop back in pass coverage consistently. Chris Hogan isn't a speed demon, but he proved too much for Elam who stumbled trying to keep up with a Patriots receiver who caught a 79 yard touchdown pass that essentially sealed the Ravens' fate.
Injuries are unquestionably part of the game, and the Patriots were playing with more key injured players than the Ravens by far. The Patriots, somehow, found themselves dominating the Ravens through much of the game. It didn't matter that Gronk was out, and it didn't matter that the Patriots didn't have a single wide receiver with over 600 receiver yards. Brady and Belichick simply zeroed in on weaknesses in an extremely strong Ravens defense, such as the ability to stop a hurry up offense as seen against the Giants earlier this season, and they used the players available to them. The fact that so much of the Ravens' success appears to depend on the health of a single player would suggest two things. Thing #1: The Ravens have depressingly poor depth at corner. Thing #2: The Ravens coaching doesn't enter games against top teams with superb game plans.
The Ravens coaching staff DID eventually adjust to Jimmy Smith's absence. After going down 23-3 early in the third quarter, the Ravens began forcing the Patriots to punt repeatedly, and with some magic from a fairly consistently explosive special teams unit, Baltimore was able to close the gap to 23-17 in rapid fashion. The Ravens were even able to move the football on a couple of drives that took advantage of the talents of Kenneth Dixon and Terrence West, but those drives ultimately took far too much time off the clock and each only resulted in a field goal. That brings us to an irritating pattern the Ravens have displayed against top teams: they find success with a balanced offensive attack either too early or too late, but never consistently. They have put on offensive fireworks displays only a couple of times this season, and the most recent came against a red-hot Miami team that has won one more game than the Ravens at this point.
The Patriots, however, are not the Dolphins. The Patriots actually now possess a higher ranked scoring defense than Baltimore, and both defenses were tied in that statistical category leading up to last Monday night's game. The thing that threw me off was the fact that the Patriots had played close games against some extremely bad teams in the three weeks leading up to the Ravens game. That only goes to show that each game is its own entity, and that no team is more clever than the Patriots when it comes to finding creative ways to win that they haven't yet shown on film.
The Patriots hadn't looked as dominant in the last month, but they may suddenly be terrifying to opposing teams after picking up deep threat receiver Michael Floyd off the waiver wire following his arrest for DUI while signed with the Arizona Cardinals. Floyd hadn't had a career year this season, but that had much to do with the decline of Carson Palmer. Brady and Belichick tend to elevate receiving talent, and a legitimate deep threat could go a long way to make up for the loss of Rob Gronkowski. I'd bet good money that the Patriots will make it to the AFC Championship at the least this season after making that bold but shrewd acquisition.
New England is, at least for the rest of the regular season, no longer any concern to the Ravens. Baltimore has to win its remaining games to guarantee a playoff spot, and they need to hope the Bengals find a way to win at home this weekend. If, for instance, the Ravens beat the Eagles and the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Ravens would need only to beat the Steelers the following week to clinch the AFC North division. That would afford them the ability to sit their starters in Week 16 against the Bengals and go into a home playoff game with rested, healthy starters. Beating the Steelers on the road without Jimmy Smith, however, is a tall task. The Ravens held off the Steelers in Baltimore earlier this season when Ben Roethlisberger was coming off of an injury and had a limited number of targets, but now Ladarius Green has been added to his arsenal, and that's bad news with Jimmy Smith out. The Ravens could still beat the Eagles and Bengals and get into the playoffs, but they'd need help from other teams. They'd need the Dolphins to go 1-2 through the end of the season, and they'd need the Broncos to essentially lose out (which they actually should be predicted to do). The problem remains that if the Ravens aren't good enough to beat a horrible Eagles team and two other teams they already beat this season just because Jimmy Smith is out, they simply don't belong in the playoffs anyway.
Speaking of Jimmy Smith, what's the deal with his injury status? It appeared pretty clear that Jimmy sprained his ankle on Monday, but it seems uncharacteristic for the Ravens not to go into more detail about a potential timetable for his return. John Harbaugh wasn't just tightlipped about the injury; he became downright defensive when questions inevitably arose following the game. I have hope that the sprain isn't so severe that Jimmy is out for the rest of the entire football year. If this means that he'll be back for the first game of the playoffs (assuming that they make it there) then maybe his return will provide a timely major post-season boost. It's possible, however, that such an ankle sprain could take him out for 4-6 weeks, and that would likely render the Ravens' top corner finished for the 2016 season. We likely won't know until reports from practice next week, but I must say that I'm not terrifically optimistic. If Harbaugh had reasonably good news, it seems as though he'd speak to the media about it.
Baltimore will almost certainly NOT require Jimmy Smith's services to beat an Eagles team that is 2-8 in their last 10 games. Not only are the Eagles decimated by injuries, but they're starting a rookie quarterback not experienced enough to carry a team during such trying times. Darren Sproles' absence takes away an experienced back with 766 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, however, the Eagles are on their 5th (yes, you read that correctly) right offensive tackle this week. Pressure on Carson Wentz could be absolutely devastating, especially in a harsh, loud road environment where visiting quarterbacks struggle to communicate with their teammates at the line of scrimmage. Of course anything can happen, but we should fully expect the Ravens to take out their frustrations from last Monday on a battered, struggling Eagles team.
The Eagles defense isn't nearly as dominant as it appeared earlier this season, but it's still not a terrible unit from a statistical standpoint. Philly boasts the 14th ranked run defense and the 12th ranked pass defense in the league. They also currently rank 11th overall in total defense in the category of yards allowed per game. The Eagles even come in a respectable 12th place in the league in points allowed per game. When we specifically look at the Eagles' record on the road, however, things become far more grim for Philadelphia. Much of the Eagles' defensive statistical success comes from their defensive dominance at home. Philly has, in fact, allowed a mere 15.33 points per game at home. On the road, that number increases to 25.7 points allowed per game. To add insult to literal injury, as the Eagles lose more and more starting offensive players, their ability to keep their defense off the field diminishes and leaves a solid group exhausted.
The Eagles don't have enough healthy impact players to outscore the Ravens, and they've only won a single road game this season...against the Bears. Without the ability to protect a rookie quarterback, expect Dumervil and Suggs to have a monster game. Alex Lewis' return to health means the Ravens will finally have all of their starting offensive linemen healthy, and that means better protection for Joe and more open running lanes for Dixon and West. There's currently an 80% chance of rain at kickoff, but temperatures will rise to an unseasonable 58 degrees. This could get extremely sloppy now that the Ravens have switched to real grass, but the conditions will favor the team better suited to run the football and stop the run--that team is Baltimore. The Ravens players are pissed, they're pumped, and they're ready to rebound.
THE PICKS
DOLPHINS AT JETS- This game will be interesting because of Ryan Tannehill's absence. The Dophins aren't a great road team, but the Jets will likely be missing 8 starters. Injuries to the Jets' offensive line will likely mean the Dolphins defensive line will have a big day putting pressure on Bryce Petty or whoever takes most of the snaps for the Jets. The Jets beat the 49ers last week, but they're simply to banged up to beat the Dolphins on Sunday. DOLPHINS 27-14
PACKERS AT BEARS- The Packers proved against the Seahawks that they truly have improved. This should be a sound beating against a Bears team that gave up hope months ago. PACKERS 33-17
JAGUARS AT TEXANS- The Jaguars haven't won a game in actual months. TEXANS 24-17
EAGLES AT RAVENS- The Eagles can't win road games, especially not in their current injured state. The Ravens have exactly one starter missing at this point and they've had good offensive production at home as of late. RAVENS 30-16
TITANS AT CHIEFS- The Titans are improving and they're a decent team, but they're simply not nearly good enough to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are actually my pick at this point to meet the Patriots in Foxboro for the AFC Championship. They do the things necessary to win in December and January and those things are run the football and play serious defense. The Titans are only 3-3 on the road, and they haven't strung together wins at any point this season. CHIEFS 26-17
LIONS AT GIANTS- Theo Riddick won't suit up for the Lions, and that means they're down to almost zero talent at the running back position. Both of these teams have won a lot of games as of late, but the Giants have beaten higher quality teams. The Lions barely edging the Bears last week shouldn't inspire much confidence in their road trip to face a team that just finished sweeping the Cowboys. GIANTS 24-21
COLTS AT VIKINGS- Texans fans should be happy with the outcome of this game. The Colts will be like fish out of water in a harsh winter environment, and the return of Adrian Peterson should help take pressure off of Sam Bradford and give at least a bit of a spark to the Vikings offense. The Vikings defense won't let Andrew Luck move the ball consistently. VIKINGS 23-17
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are 4-2 at home this year, but that likely won't be enough to stop the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has looked significantly improved recently, and the rise of Ladarius Green gives the Steelers a much needed second deep threat to take pressure off of Antonio Brown. A.J. Green didn't ever seem likely to return, but now there's no hope of that happening. Without him healthy, the Bengals won't have enough to outscore the Steelers this week. STEELERS 28-20
SAINTS AT CARDINALS- This game is totally inconsequential. The Saints are pretty bad on the road and the Cardinals are 4-2-1 at home. CARDINALS 31-28
49ERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons' season has come off the rails, but they'll be able to take out their frustrations against the 49ers. Both teams are missing deep threat receivers in Torrey Smith and Julio Jones, but only one of those players is a significant loss. Atlanta should still be able to pull this one out though. FALCONS 35-17
PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos defense simply isn't enough to beat a superior Patriots team. The Patriots defense is probably just as good at this point, and their offense is vastly superior to that of Denver. PATRIOTS 27-20
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers have that the misfortune of having easily the toughest schedule in the NFL this season. This won't be much of a road game for the Raiders as their fans won't have to travel that far to drown out hopeless Chargers fans in San Diego. RAIDERS 31-24
BUCCANEERS AT COWBOYS- The Bucs have been entertaining to watch this season, but they won't be able to beat the Cowboys in Arlington. Don't let last week's loss to the Giants fool you--this is still a dominant Cowboys team. The Bucs' road record is just as good as the Cowboys home record, so expect this to be one of the best games of the week. COWBOYS 28-23
PANTHERS AT REDSKINS- The Panthers' road record is simply too bad to suggest they can beat the Redskins in D.C. This is about as far as a team has fallen the year after it went to the Super Bowl in recent years. The Redskins should be able to pick on atrocious Panthers corners. REDSKINS 33-21
THE RAVENS ARE STILL IN CONTROL OF THEIR OWN DESTINY AND, DESPITE JIMMY SMITH'S ABSENCE, THEY'RE STILL A RATHER HEALTHY TEAM. PRIORITY #1 IS BEATING THE EAGLES, AND THEN WE'LL SEE WHERE THE REST OF THE LEAGUE STANDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DON'T GIVE UP HOPE NOW, BALTIMORE, IT'S JUST GETTING INTERESTING!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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