The Miami Dolphins have been a bit of a surprise this year at 7-4, and I'll bet even the most optimistic of Dolphins fans wouldn't have predicted a 6 game winning streak after beginning the season 1-4. Jay Ajayi has been electric with impressive lineman in front of him clearing the way. Ryan Tannehill previously looked as though he'd never truly be able to carry his team, but he's shown the ability to pick up the slack as Ajayi and the running game stalled with critical linemen injured in recent weeks. The Dolphins haven't played the best teams in the league during this 6-game stretch, but any win is a big deal in this league, and stringing together wins is all the more impressive considering injury issues over the past month.
The Ravens aren't nearly as hot as the Dolphins, but they've won 3 of their last four games and appear to finally be over the injury bug that plagued the team during the woeful 4-game losing streak that followed their red-hot 3-0 start. I mentioned last week that getting a healthy Elvis Dumervil back would go a long way to make up for Jimmy Smith's absence. In 2014, for example, the Ravens made the playoffs and beat up on the Steelers in Pittsburgh in large part because the tandem of Suggs and Dumervil was so potent that it made up for issues at the safety and corner positions as Jimmy Smith was out for the second half of the season. Tom Brady picked on weak corners the next week and ended up beating the Ravens in a tight 34-30 game. Fast forward to 2016 and suddenly the Ravens have a the ferocious Suggs-Doom tandem healthy AND Jimmy Smith is set to take the field for the first time in 3 weeks.
Now what does that mean for this week's matchup against the Dolphins? Well Tannehill has been impressive over the last several weeks in large part because of his connection with his athletic, young receivers. Jarvis Landry has over 700 receiver yards on the season, and DeVante Parker has been an effective #2 with nearly 550 yards thus far. The problem for the Dolphins, however, is that DeVante Parker is likely not going to play as he is currently dealing with a back issue and hasn't practiced all week. Landry has the most receiving yards on his team this season, but he has been FAR outperformed by Parker in the past 3 games. Parker has, in fact, averaged 82 yards per game during this last 3-game stretch, whereas Landry has been limited to 42.6 yards per game during that same period.
Matching up well with the Ravens typically requires outnumbering their quality defensive backs with playmaking receivers. The Ravens can count on a healthy Jimmy Smith to shut down or limit a team's #1 receiver, and then they can give safety help to whomever covers the team's #2. The pass rush also helps cover up coverage deficiencies in some of the lesser DBs, and that's why teams such as the Steelers who are over-reliant on a single receiver such as Antonio Brown do not match up well with Baltimore. The Bengals devastated the Ravens over the past few seasons with their 3-receiver group of Green, Sanu, and Marvin Jones, but not a single one of those receivers played in Baltimore last week. The Ravens, as a result, defensively dominated Cincy for the first time in years--even without Jimmy Smith.
Well now Jimmy Smith IS healthy, and the Ravens will, for the first time this season, combine the coverage strength of Smith with the pass rush of Suggs and Dumervil. Those three haven't all been healthy at the same time since the first half of the 2014 season. One can bet that Smith will be tasked with covering Jarvis Landry for most of the day, and the speedy Kenny Stills will step up in the #2 receiver spot. Landry, Parker, and Stills have all combined to form a dangerous trio that could have given the Ravens major issues. With Parker out, however, the Ravens will simply have to put Jimmy Smith on one side and give safety help to Tavon Young as he covers Stills. Three nearly equally explosive wide receivers are difficult for any team to cover effectively, but two are dramatically easier to manage.
With fewer quality receiving options at their disposal, one has to assume the Dolphins will hope to lean more on their running game in the cold Baltimore environment. Ajayi is unquestionably talented, but he's been bottled up more recently because of injuries to three of Miami's starting offensive linemen. The Dolphins' starting center, Pouncey, has already been ruled out, but the other two, Laremy Tunsil and Branden Albert, appear ready to play. Tunsil is the left tackle, and he's been quite dominant when healthy. Tunsil will, however, be playing with a brace on his shoulder that should dramatically limit his ability to stop the likes of Terrell Suggs coming off the edge. Since Pouncey, Tunsil, and Albert have dealt with injuries over the past 3 weeks, Jay Ajayi's rushing numbers have fallen dramatically. Ajayi averaged a whopping 176 yards per game during the three game stretch between October 16th and November 6th, but his average has plummeted to 67 yards per game over the last 3 weeks. Ajayi was limited to a pedestrian 45 yards on the ground and 2.5 yards per carry last week against the 49ers, but Tannehill picked up the slack and led his team to a 31-24 victory.
With their offensive line and one of their most integral receivers missing, the Dolphins will be short of the number of playmakers required to overwhelm a healthy Ravens defense at home. The question for the Ravens all week has been whether or not the have enough in the tank offensively to match a Dolphins team that has put up a decent number of points on a number of occasions this season. The Dolphins pass defense is ranked 9th in the league, which isn't too far behind Baltimore's 6th place ranking in the same category. The Dolphins rush defense, however, is ranked 30th in the NFL, and that'll be a point that Baltimore will likely look to exploit. The Dolphins secondary will also be weakened by the absence of one of their starting corners. Xavien Howard was just ruled out for Sunday's game, and that means Miami could struggle to stop the trio of Mike Wallace, Steve Smith Sr., and Breshad Perriman.
As hot as the Dolphins have been over the past 6 weeks, they've also played extremely close games as of late with teams in the bottom third of the league. Barely beating the 49ers didn't exactly instill much confidence in many about this team's ability to win going forward against tougher teams while dealing with injuries to key players. The previous week's 14-10 win over the Rams showed how difficult it could be for the Dolphins to score against a talented defensive line. There's probably no better defensive line in the NFL than that of the Baltimore Ravens. Brandon Williams is easily the NFL's best run-stuffing nose tackle, and his backup, Michael Pierce, is nearly as good. C.J. Mosley has been incredible against the run, and a large part of the Ravens inability to beat the Jets and Giants stemmed from his absence. If Jay Ajayi struggled against the Rams and 49ers, he'll definitely find little running room in Charm City.
None of this, of course, means the Ravens are about to blow out the Dolphins. It's difficult to argue with a 7-4 record, and Miami has found a way to win games week after week despite various injuries to key players. Winning narrow victories against a pair of teams that combine for 4 wins this season is much different than winning on the road against a 6-5 Ravens team that boasts the league's second ranked defense by yardage, 4th ranked defense by points allowed, 1st ranked defense against the run, and 6th ranked defense against the pass. Add to that the absence of the Dolphins' hottest wide receiver over the past few week's, their pro bowl starting center, and one of their starting cornerbacks, and you get a team vulnerable at an extremely bad time. The Ravens defense hasn't been this complete in years, and it simply matches up too well with Miami's available offensive weapons. To lose this game, Joe Flacco will have to throw multiple interceptions, and the Ravens offense will have to be calamitously anemic.
Justin Tucker's ability to hit field goals from the 40 yard line has meant that the Ravens can steadily pile up points even if they only find the endzone once or twice in a game. The Dolphin's comparative lack of success against the run will likely mean it will be tough to totally stop the Ravens from driving 4-6 times over the course of the game. The teams that found the most success against the Ravens this season have been those with the ability to stop the run and force Joe Flacco to drop back to pass many more times than the Ravens would prefer, but if the Dolphins stack the box in order to stop the run, the Marty Mornhinweg will likely have Flacco hit Terrence West and Kenneth Dixon on short passes out of the backfield in order to spread out the Miami's defensive front, and then he'll probably have Flacco take deep shots downfield to whichever of the Ravens deep threats absolutely toasts a backup corner or is able to beat single man coverage.
The playoff implications of this game are major to say the least. If the Ravens can beat the Dolphins, they'll at the very least hold on to first place in the AFC North. If the Giants can handle the Steelers and the Ravens handle their business, the Ravens will improve to 7-5 while the Steelers will find themselves 6-6 going into next week's tough road test against the Bills. The Dolphins will still have a decent shot at a wildcard whether they win or lose, but a win would be huge given the divisional matchups still left on their schedule. The Patriots are a daunting opponent for the Ravens next week, but their biggest weapon, Rob Gronkowski, was just put on injured reserve. To add to that, the Patriots' second tight end, Martellus Bennett, has dealt with nagging injury issues lately and is no substitute for a healthy Gronk. I might be getting ahead of myself as the Ravens must first face the Dolphins tomorrow before even THINKING about an upset in New England, but it only goes to show that the health and availability of players in the second half of the season is FAR more important than how dominant a team looked through the first 6-8 weeks. Let's see what's in store for the rest of the league!
THE PICKS
CHIEFS AT FALCONS- The Chiefs are 8-3 but two of their three losses came on the road this season. Matt Ryan has found incredible success against the Chiefs in the past, but this Chiefs team has turned in some surprisingly strong performances this season including last weeks overtime win in Denver. The Falcons, however, present much bigger offensive challenges than the Broncos, and it's difficult to imagine the Chiefs being quite able to keep up offensively with Julio Jones and company. FALCONS 31-27
LIONS AT SAINTS- The Lions will be without their starting middle linebacker, and Drew Brees will capitalize. The Lions haven't had a seriously convincing win in a long time and they're 2-3 on the road. The Saints aren't exactly set to be playoff bound, but they can still go toe to toe with winning teams. Drew Brees will likely have to win a shootout here. SAINTS 34-28
RAMS AT PATRIOTS- I can't see an upset here, but I am curious to see just how easy it is for the Patriots to move the football on the Rams defense without Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett still not 100%. The Pats, after all, only barely squeaked by a disappointing Jets team last week, and it's safe to say they don't look much like the team that destroyed the Bengals, Steelers, and Bills in a row earlier this season. Tom Brady will find a way to win this game, but it'll tell us a lot about what the Ravens have ahead of them next weekend. PATRIOTS 23-16
BRONCOS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars find ways to lose close games against quality teams. The Broncos are playing for their playoff lives after a disappointing overtime loss to the Chiefs last week. The Jags will struggle to move the ball on a team with a pass rush and secondary of this caliber. BRONCOS 27-13
TEXANS AT PACKERS- It's difficult to know if Aaron Rodgers is really back in his old form or if the Eagles have truly fallen off of a cliff after last week's loss the Packers in Philly. The Texans produced little in their 21-13 loss to the Chargers last week, and they won't have Jadeveon Clowney when they travel to Green Bay. The Packers' season is already on life support as it is; they'll need to find a way to win this game to even have a PRAYER of a post-season berth. PACKERS 23-20
EAGLES AT BENGALS- With a mere 3 wins at this point in the season, the Bengals are essentially ruled out of the playoff hunt. That doesn't mean, however, that Marvin Lewis isn't still trying to prove that his team can turn the corner. Without Ryan and Jordan Matthews the Eagles don't possess the weapons needed to win a road game against even the Bengals. BENGALS 21-17
DOLPHINS AT RAVENS- The Dolphins are a resilient team with a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. They are, however, going to be missing three too many key players tomorrow as their starting center, a starting cornerback, and their hottest wide receiver won't take the field in Baltimore. The Ravens, on the other hand, haven't had this level of defensive weaponry healthy at the same time this season, and they're primed for a dominant performance at home against a somewhat banged up quality team that has just finished barely beating the Rams and 49ers. The Ravens should find some success on the ground against the 30th ranked run defense in the NFL, and Flacco should be able to take some deep shots down field once the Ravens have established the run. Justin Tucker should have another big day, but I expect the Ravens to find the endzone at least twice. RAVENS 23-16
49ERS AT BEARS- Can anyone think of a worse game??? I can't see even the 49ers losing to a team starting Brian Hoyer. 49ERS 28-23
BILLS AT RAIDERS- I would LOVE to see the Bills beat the Raiders and build some momentum into their game against the Steelers next week, but it's hard to see that happening the way they've played lately. Two narrow wins over the Bengals and Jaguars hardly suggests the Bills are ready to travel across the country and beat one of the best teams in the AFC. The Raiders have, nevertheless, won games by razor thin margins all season, and this game likely won't be any different. RAIDERS 24-21
GIANTS AT STEELERS- I'm not entirely sure what it is about the Steelers' recent performances that gives anyone the impression that they're still a dominant team. Beating the Browns and an Andrew Luck-less Colts team doesn't give any indication of how the Steelers can do against a winning team at this point in the season. The Giants defense has been phenomenal during their 6 game winning streak, and the G-men have some receivers that will be matchup nightmares for Steelers secondary. Without Cameron Heyward the Steelers defense isn't nearly as tough, particularly against the run. If the Steelers can win this game, then it's possible they truly have turned the corner from their 4-game slump that ended two weeks ago, but I doubt the Steelers have the pass defense to handle a receiving corps like that of the Giants. GIANTS 24-21
REDSKINS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals don't have nearly enough in the tank to take down a team with an offense as good as Washington's. REDSKINS 31-17
BUCCANEERS AT CHARGERS- I must say I was surprised to see the Bucs take it to the Seahawks last week. The Chargers, on the other hand, are quite dangerous despite their losing record. If it weren't for their hellacious schedule, the Chargers might be a 7-8 win team right now. Traveling across the country is always difficult and the Chargers have beaten better teams than the Bucs. This one should be interesting though. CHARGERS 33-28
PANTHERS AT SEAHAWKS- The Panthers have had a poor season, but their road record is one of the biggest reasons it has been so depressing. The Panthers are only 1-4 on the road, and the Seahawks are undefeated at home this season. SEAHAWKS 27-21
COLTS AT JETS- Andrew Luck's return will make the difference in a game where the Jets offense struggles to find much of a rhythm. The Colts are only 2-3 on the road, but then again the Jets are only 1-4 at home. COLTS 31-23
THIS IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR THAT THE RAVENS FIND THEIR GROOVE AND THRIVE. A 16 GAME SEASON ISN'T ABOUT HOW A TEAM DID THROUGH 6 WEEKS 8 WEEKS OR EVEN 10 WEEKS. IT'S ABOUT DOING ENOUGH TO GET INTO THE PLAYOFFS AND GETTING HOT AT THE RIGHT TIME. SUGGS AND DOOM ARE BACK IN ACTION TOGETHER, AND JIMMY SMITH IS READY TO SHUT DOWN ONE SIDE OF THE FIELD. LET'S SEE TEAMS TRY TO MOVE THE BALL ON THESE BIRDS.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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