Last week's game against the Cowboys confirmed two rather unfortunate things about the Ravens. The first is that the Ravens have no corner besides Jimmy Smith who can match up against a big #1 wide receiver. With Smith out, the Ravens had no answer for Dez Bryant. It was a pick your poison situation as they chose to either bring a safety up to help stuff the run game and force Dak Prescott to throw the football or drop a safety back to give help to whomever covered Dez on any given play. The move to stop the run was the wisest as running the football allows the Cowboys to more effectively control the clock. Without Jimmy, however, Dez Bryant was able to complete catches and run over tacklers regardless of how tight he was covered by smaller corners.
Because of the Ravens' choice to commit their resources to stuffing the run, little pressure was brought on Dak Prescott beyond the front 4, and at the same time, Dez Bryant was left in single coverage. The Ravens were simply one playmaker short of being able to put up a legitimate defensive fight. That brings us to the second unfortunate thing that last week's game confirmed: the Ravens offense still lacks consistency for more than one reason, and it hasn't been able to pick up the slack when the defense has had issues making stops.
The Cowboys defense wasn't great, and the Ravens offense knifed quickly through it to score the game's first touchdown. All three of the Ravens scores actually happened quite rapidly, which is why it was so frustrating that mistakes and penalties rooted in stupidity led to stalled drives. Once Dallas got on an offensive roll, it became clear that they could potentially score on every drive from that point on. It was, thus, vitally important that the Ravens offense take advantage of a relatively weak Dallas pass defense and a non-threatening pass rush to put points on the board and match the Cowboys score for score. The Ravens ended up losing by ten points and came one scoring drive short of having a shot to win or tie the game with the ball in Joe's hands and slightly under two minutes left on the clock. None of that mattered, however, because the Ravens knew full well that they had little hope of scoring 10 points with less than two minutes and zero timeouts left. Even if they still clung to what little hope they may have had left, Joe and company played with zero urgency and fire on what ended up being their final drive.
When Joe Flacco said to the media that the Ravens SHOULD have beaten the Cowboys, he meant that the opportunities were there and they simply didn't execute. It certainly didn't mean that the Cowboys aren't a great team, but they're a defensively flawed team and one that the Ravens offense should have scored on with far more frequency. There's no shame in losing to a nearly undefeated team on the road, but there is frustration that arises when the opportunities to beat that team presented themselves and were not taken advantage of by the players.
Jimmy Smith's absence isn't the only reason, however, that the Ravens didn't put up a better showing last weekend. The absence of a pass rush without blitzing safeties, corners, or inside linebackers has been an issue for most of this season. Elvis Dumervil's health issues and absence has meant reliance on an injured Terrell Suggs and rookie pass rusher Matt Judon to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Suggs has had decent pass rushing production, and Judon has had a respectable 3 sacks as well, but that's an incredible drop-off from the tandem production that Suggs and Dumervil produced when both men were healthy two seasons ago. Without Suggs last year, Dumervil found himself fighting off far more double teams, and without Dumervil this year, Suggs has had to do a lot by himself. Many people forget just how dire the corner and safety situation was in 2014, but the 29 combined sacks and incredible pressure brought by the tandem of Suggs and Dumervil made up for Jimmy Smith's absence and the lack of overall secondary talent to such a great degree that the Ravens were still able to finish 10-6 and beat the Steelers in the playoffs 31-17 in Pittsburgh.
It's difficult to know what, if anything, to expect from Elvis Dumervil as he potentially makes his return to the field either this week or next. Off-season foot surgery meant a disappointingly long recovery period that appears as though it may finally be over. Will Dumervil be the same dominant player who racked up 17 sacks in 2014? This week could answer that question, but it's still unclear as to whether or not he'll take the field. Dumervil is a speed rusher who can be incredibly useful against mobile quarterbacks. The rather impressive return of Suggs also means that Dumervil doesn't have to be on the field for all three downs. He can, instead, simply come in on third downs as a pass rushing specialist, and that's how he's been most explosive and effective during his time in Baltimore. Matt Judon's presence will also allow Dumervil to take a break if he needs it as Judon has proven a competent enough stand-in during Doom's rehab process.
The potential increase in pressure off the edge could certainly help turn the tide in what has been another painful, albeit less so than last year's, season to watch. There's a reason that pass rushers and corners are in such high demand. If consistently given an extra second or two to throw the football, even an inexperienced or ineffective quarterback can put up big numbers. That is why one other big factor may soon prove vital for the Ravens offense.
The Ravens once had a logjam at tight end at the beginning of this season. Maxx Williams and Ben Watson have since been placed on injured reserve, and the Ravens were left only with two "move" tight ends who can barely block and only effectively catch passes. Dennis Pitta has at numerous times disappointed me greatly with his unwillingness and inability to block. I understand that his hip injury has likely made him wary of taking on bigger, more ferocious pass rushers, but seeing him literally step out of the way of Jamie Collins to allow a free run at Joe a few weeks ago made me never want to see #88 on the field again...well certainly not as a blocker.
Against the Cowboys I saw a similar lack of both effort and technique from Pitta who pathetically lunged at an edge rusher and then turned his body to watch as the athlete bore down on Flacco. It reminded me of scared high school J.V. linemen who have not been properly taught pass protection footwork. Pitta and his current backup, Darren Waller, are simply useless as blocking tight ends, and neither should be tasked with giving help to either offensive tackle. That's where Nick Boyle comes in handy. Boyle is just getting off of a 10 game suspension for violating the league's drug policy, and he's a much bigger, stronger, more competent blocker. Boyle had also looked like arguably the Ravens most effective tight end when he found his way on to the field last season, so it's not as though he's a one trick pony. Having a serious extra blocker on the field who can also serve as a receiving threat will help not only in giving Flacco time to find open speedy receivers downfield, but it will also undoubtedly help open up more holes in a running game that has been disappointing despite flashes of absolute brilliance from two extremely talented young running backs.
The Bengals aren't nearly the opponent the Cowboys proved last week. Cincinnati not only wasn't doing well before last weekend, but now they've lost both Giovanni Bernard and A.J. Green. Green was the bane of the Ravens' existence for the past several seasons, and he and Bernard accounted for roughly 40% of the Bengals' receiving yards this season. Tyler Boyd and Tyler Eifert will undoubtedly be tasked in picking up the slack, but the Bengals simply don't have the same firepower that they did in recent years without Green, Sanu, and Marvin Jones to spread the field. The loss of Hue Jackson as offensive coordinator also has meant less creativity and production from Andy Dalton who flourished with Jackson's play-calling and offensive system. The Bengals have lost a good number of close games, but this will be the first game where they'll be totally without their most elite weapon. If the Ravens can't shut Dalton down and win this game, they don't deserve to be in the conversation of potential division winners and playoff teams. The Steelers were given the gift of playing the Colts without Andrew Luck, and they snatched up the opportunity and took the win. The Ravens have been given the gift of playing an already questionable Bengals team in Baltimore that now lacks both A.J. Green and Giovanni Bernard. The Ravens need to take advantage of the opportunity, and add a win to their record to regain first place in the division.
The Steelers actually have a tougher road ahead of them than they may have assumed earlier this season. Both the Bills and Giants are far more dangerous teams than many assumed at the beginning of the season, and the Steelers will face the Giants next Sunday and then travel to Buffalo to face the Bills the week after that. That could easily result in the Steelers dropping to 6-7 before they travel to Cincy to face the Bengals again. The Ravens must handle their own business this weekend to improve to 6-5, and they face their own challenges in the next two weeks as the Dolphins will travel to Baltimore next weekend and the Ravens will then visit the Patriots in the following weekend. It's a safe assumption that the Ravens won't beat the Patriots unless Tom Brady is injured somehow, so the Ravens MUST beat both the Bengals and Dolphins to finish the next three weeks 7-6 and a game up on the Steelers. With pieces such as Nick Boyle and Elvis Dumervil potentially returning this weekend as well as the pending returns of Crockett Gillmore and Jimmy Smith, it's safe to say that the Ravens could get stronger on both sides of the ball in time to make a serious push to win the division. The Ravens have not yet resembled a Super Bowl winning team, but they've been missing some players that could have very well turned close losses into narrow wins. One thing's for sure, with three division games left, a trip to Foxborough looming, and upcoming home games against formidable Dolphins and Eagles teams, the Ravens are going to have to EARN their way into the post-season.
Regardless of how things shake out, the Ravens are still in a much better spot than they were at this point last season. They're undefeated in their own division with a good chance to remain that way through this weekend, and they will hopefully once again be leading their division after tomorrow. Some of the losses have been easily avoidable such as that against the Raiders and Redskins, but losses during the regular season at least serve some kind of function. Losses force a team to evaluate its weaknesses. Losses force teams to try creative things they may have otherwise not considered. Were it not for three straight losses in 2012, the Ravens would not have fired their offensive coordinator, and they likely wouldn't have gone on to make their legendary second Super Bowl run. If there's one thing that many of the Ravens trips to the playoffs have shown, it's that this team simply needs to get in...and then they always seem to do some serious damage. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
TITANS AT BEARS- The Titans are a decent team and the Bears have lost all hope. Not a whole lot else to discuss here. TITANS 27-10
JAGUARS AT BILLS- The Jaguars have played several close games against decent teams this year, but the Bills are likely getting Sammy Watkins back this weekend, and they were already going to flatten the Jags even without him. BILLS 34-17
BENGALS AT RAVENS- I don't have a tremendous amount of faith in the Ravens secondary without Jimmy Smith in the lineup, but the Bengals are not the Cowboys. The Bengals will rely on Brandon LaFell, Tyler Boyd, Jeremy Hill, and Tyler Eifert to try to move the ball, but the won't have the major mismatch of A.J. Green that could have been devastating to the Ravens in Jimmy Smith's absence. The Bengals have won only a single road game this season, and it came against a useless Jets team because of a missed easy field goal from the Jets' kicker. Since then, the Bengals have been outscored 108-67 on the road, and each of those losses occurred while the Bengals still had A.J. Green to stretch the field. The Bengals will also likely be without their starting strong safety, Shawn Williams, and their #2 free safety, Derron Smith when they face a handful of speedy Ravens receivers and talented running backs. Cincinnati also has one of the worst rushing defense in the league as they rank 28th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. That should theoretically allow the Ravens to sustain drives and control the clock. The Bengals also rank 22nd in the league in sacks, and that should help keep Joe upright long enough to connect on some big passes downfield. This won't be as lopsided as the Ravens' recent victory over the Browns, but it should be solid enough not to give fans in Baltimore a collective heart attack in the 4th quarter. RAVENS 24-16
CARDINALS AT FALCONS- The Cardinals defense won't be enough to carry this team as Carson Palmer finally appears to be fading in his advanced age. After a rocky stretch over the past month against some quality teams, expect the Falcons to make a statement by flattening the Cardinals in their return home to Atlanta. FALCONS 35-21
GIANTS AT BROWNS- Yawn. GIANTS 28-13
RAMS AT SAINTS- The Rams have lost a good number of painfully close defensive battles. The Saints don't have much defense, but they've got enough offense to make this an interesting game. Ultimately, it's difficult to see Drew Brees dropping this one at home to a 4-win team. SAINTS 33-28
49ERS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins win streak may end sometimes soon, but it certainly won't end this weekend. The 49ers are basically on the level of the Browns at this point, and their lone win is the only thing keeping them from the first overall pick in the next year's draft. No way the Dolphins lose this one at home. DOLPHINS 30-13
CHARGERS AT TEXANS- Despite some impressive flashes this season, the Chargers are only a 4-6 team with a 1-4 record on the road. Meanwhile, the Texans are 5-0 at home, and probably SHOULD have beaten the Raiders last week in Oakland. I doubted them earlier in the season, and I wasn't alone in doing so. This Texans team, however, is finally coming alive even without J.J. Watt. The Texans are far worse on the road, but they're not playing on the road this week. TEXANS 24-21
SEAHAWKS AT BUCCANEERS- As well as the Cowboys have done this season, the Seahawks are probably the NFL's best, most complete team. No other team possesses the same offensive AND defensive firepower as Seattle, and the Buccaneers won't be able to match them in any facet of the game. Despite commanding wins over the Bears and Chiefs over the past two weeks, the Buccaneers don't have what it takes to put up big numbers on a team that beat the Patriots in Foxborough. SEAHAWKS 26-20
PANTHERS AT RAIDERS- The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 games, but they won't be able to beat the Raiders in Oakland--especially not without Luke Kuechly. This is a game where the Panthers will find themselves essentially outgunned. It's difficult to win games 3000 miles from home, but beating a much better team 3000 miles from home is a far tougher challenge. RAIDERS 33-21
PATRIOTS AT JETS- It doesn't really matter that Tom Brady is a game-time decision against the Jets. If Jimmy Garoppolo starts, the Patriots still have more than enough weapons to trounce the poor Jets. I hope, however, this is one of those bizarre upset games that no one sees coming. Not counting on that though. PATRIOTS 38-13
CHIEFS AT BRONCOS- The Chiefs have a respectable 3-2 road record, but the Broncos are 4-1 at home. Divisional matchups are always difficult to predict, but Alex Smith will find it difficult to move the ball with a rather suffocating Broncos defense collapsing the pocket as he struggles to suck wind a mile above sea level. This should, nevertheless, be one of the best games of the day. BRONCOS 23-21
PACKERS AT EAGLES- The Packers are an incredible disappointment, but they'll be facing the Eagles without Ryan Matthews who is suffering from what is being described as an MCL sprain. With any luck, the Ravens won't have to face Matthews in three weeks... The Packers are getting back a pair of starting defenders. Aaron Rodgers is 1-4 on the road this season, and winning this game might not fix their season, but it certainly will boost morale. Ryan Matthews' absence takes away a running back with 7 touchdowns on the season. Darren Sproles is dealing with a rib injury, but he'll likely try to play anyway. I won't be surprised if the Eagles pull of the win regardless, but I have a feeling they've lost too much in their running game to outscore a Packers team that can still put up a decent number of points. Carson Wentz started out with over a 100 passer rating in 3 of his first four games, but he has averaged a 72.3 passer rating in the 6 weeks that have followed. PACKERS 24-20
IT MAY NOT MEAN A TON TO BEAT UP ON THE BENGALS WITHOUT A.J. GREEN AND GIOVANNI BERNARD, BUT IN THIS LEAGUE ONE MUST TAKE ANY WIN THEY CAN GET. LET'S HOPE THE RAVENS CAN HANDLE BUSINESS AT HOME.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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