There are good reasons as to why the 8-1 Cowboys would be widely favored going into a home game against a 5-4 Ravens team. Each team's record alone should leave the Cowboys considerably favored, and the Ravens' injury issues certainly help to bolster the Cowboys' cause as well. The Cowboys, however, are not without their own personnel issues, and as triumphant as their last second win against the was a week ago, it exposed many weaknesses in addition to Dallas' strengths.
The Cowboys offensive line is unquestionably the best in the league. Their stout offensive front has paved the way for what will prove to be a record setting season for Cowboys rookie starting running back, Ezekiel Elliot. No one is questioning the incredibly vision, acceleration, and incredible cuts Elliot has put on display every week since joining the league.
The Steelers, however, bottled Elliott under 70 yards on the ground (he did have an incredible 83 yard catch and run for a touchdown) up until a critical Steelers defender went down with a torn pectoral just before the end of 3rd quarter. If you'll recall, a major reason I predicted a Steelers win last week was the return to health of Ryan Shazier and Cameron Heyward. With a healthy Shazier and Heyward, the Steelers were able to bottle up two talented Ravens running backs the week prior, and with Shazier and Heyward both on the field, Elliot was mostly limited on the ground compared to his typical production--and DEFINITELY compared to what was about to come once Heyward went down.
After Cameron Heyward came off the field for his injury, the Cowboys proceeded to score 3 explosive touchdowns. Now one can't downplay the strength of the Cowboys offense, but it had performed at a relatively pedestrian level for most of the game up until that point, and suddenly it exploded for one of the most incredibly back-and-forth finishes of any NFL game of the past 20 years. One thing that was abundantly apparent was the disturbingly wide open running lanes allowed by a Heywardless Steelers run defense. Cameron Heyward was notably previously absent against the Dolphins and Patriots, and the Steelers gave up an astounding 204 rushing yards and two touchdowns to J. Ajayi and then gave up 124 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to LaGarrette Blount. It should, thus, come as no surprise that Ezekiel Elliot would also run wild for two rushing touchdowns shortly after Cameron Heyward left the field.
The Steelers weren't the only ones without key defensive personnel last week. The Cowboys starting corner Morris Claiborne and starting safety Barry Church. Ben Roethlisberger, despite a lackluster arsenal of receiving weapons outside of Antonio Brown, absolutely lit up the Cowboys for over 400 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. What's even more impressive is that such a monster performance came as Ben Roethlisberger was and probably is still recovering from a fairly severe torn meniscus.
Joe Flacco has never put up regular passing stats on the level of Ben Roethlisberger, but Joe is certainly easily on the level of Ben when he's not 100%. This season has be an unquestionable low point in Flacco's performance as he has thrown nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns, and he has displayed an uncharacteristic lack of confidence that is undoubtedly due to a combination of injuries to offensive linemen and uneasiness of the stability of or potential reinjury to his surgically repaired knee. One alarming statistic was that the Ravens lost every game that starting left tackle, Ronnie Stanley, didn't play. For four weeks straight the Ravens lost without him, and now for two weeks straight they've won with him back. Sadly though, Baltimore lost starting left guard, Alex Lewis, to a high ankle sprain, and he won't be back until the final few weeks of the season.
When Alex Lewis went down against the Browns, I expected Joe Flacco to suddenly experience tons of pressure and the Ravens offense to stall. The Browns, after all, just traded for Jamie Collins who was giving Ronnie Stanley a hard time on the left side. Now suddenly the left side of the Ravens offensive line would be weaker without another starter, right? Well that could have been the case, but you wouldn't have known it. Joe Flacco came alive in the second half with 3 impressive touchdown passes to three difference receivers.
There's no question that the Browns defense is one of the worst in the league, but blowing out a team that took the Ravens to the brink earlier this season definitely signals major progress. It wasn't simply that the Browns were bad; Joe Flacco was finally doing things we hadn't seem him do all season. He stepped into throws confidently and fit passes into tight windows. The most important change that seemed to allow Flacco to find open receivers and get rid of the ball more quickly was the introduction of various crossing routes designed to utilize the incredibly speed of Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman. Perriman, in fact, led the team in receiving yards and had the first touchdown of his career despite being in fairly tight coverage.
The Cowboys have an impressive list of receivers of their own including tight end Jason Witten, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, and physical freak Dez Bryant. Dak Prescott has distributed the ball to these receivers safely over the course of this season, but he's never been asked to carry the team as the Cowboys have always been able to lean on their rushing attack to take pressure off of Dak. The question will be whether or not the Ravens can stuff the run on early downs and force Prescott to make plays. It should be noted that Dez Bryant was forced to be limited at practice because of a flare-up of a back issue that caused him to be limited to a single catch against the Browns a couple of weeks ago.
Also ailing with back stiffness is Ravens starting cornerback Jimmy Smith. Jimmy Smith was also limited in Friday's practice, but he's listed as doubtful on the injury report. Harbaugh seemed to give a glimmer of hope that Smith would play when he explained that it was a "good sign" that Smith returned to practice on Friday. The question will be whether or not Jimmy will be cleared by doctors before the game tomorrow. The availability and health of both Dez Bryant and Jimmy Smith, in fact, will likely tip the scales in favor of one team or the other tomorrow. Jimmy has shut down the likes of Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson, and even Odell Beckham Jr. When Jimmy Smith came out of the game against the Giants, however, Odell Beckham Jr. ran absolutely wild and nearly beat the Ravens by himself. If Dez is too hampered by his lingering back injury to be his normal, explosive self, then Jimmy Smith's absence will matter far less. If Dez is a full go and Jimmy is nowhere to be found, Dak could find him for some absolutely critical plays.
Fortunately for the Ravens, they're coming off of an extended 10 day rest period following their drubbing of the lowly Browns. Jimmy Smith's absence, though potentially a major factor, shouldn't stop Baltimore's ability to stuff the run. Cowboys starting left tackle, Tyron Smith, is also dealing with injuries to his back and hip, and he'll have his hands full with a rested Terrell Suggs who is still a top 10 pass rusher and elite run stuffer even with his relatively advanced ago and his own injury issues earlier this season. Also fortunately for the Ravens, the Cowboys are not an elite pass rushing team. Dallas is ranked 3rd against the run, but they also only average a modest 2 sacks per game. It's also safe to say that Dallas' ability to control the clock and limit time of possession for opposing teams by running the football consistently causes teams to throw the football more often to conserve clock.
The Cowboys winning streak and incredible comeback win last week have caused many fans to ignore major flaws that allowed the Steelers to essentially score at will on them late in the game last week. The Cowboys offensive line, though impressive, struggled to impose its will in typical fashion against the Steelers until a critical Steelers defender came out of the game late. This SHOULD have made Cowboys fans a little bit nervous, but the win drowned out an concerns for the future. The Ravens offense has performed incredibly poorly overall, but its beginning to trend upward exactly at the right time. The Ravens will miss Alex Lewis this week, but they're getting back a rested Marshal Yanda. The Ravens may also find success on the ground with the incredibly tackle-breaking ability of their rookie running back Kenneth Dixon who put on a yards-after-contact clinic last week. If the Ravens are to pull an upset tomorrow, they must utilize their suffocating run defense to put the ball into the hands of a rookie quarterback long enough to force him to make critical errors, and Joe Flacco must exploit mismatches in speed in the Cowboys secondary with two critical starters out.
I'm not saying I'm confident in a Ravens win at Dallas, but the likely deciding factors of this game are far more complex and nuanced than simply comparing the Ravens' and Cowboys' respective records. One thing is for sure: this game will garner a TON of viewership nationwide.
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