There are two ways in my estimation to think about this Ravens-Cowboys game if you're a Ravens fan. The first is that losing this game wouldn't be the end of the world. Even if the Ravens lose and the Steelers beat the Browns (which they almost certainly will) the Ravens still own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers and, thus, first place in the division regardless of what happens this weekend. The second way of thinking about this game is far hungrier--far more spirited. This is a fantastic chance for Baltimore to prove itself against one of the league's best teams.
It's not uncommon to hear that a team is what its record says it is, but that statement can be misinterpreted. A team's regular season record gives an observer an idea of just how successful a team has been up until this point, but it does little to express the current strength of the team. There are far too many commentators and pundits that look at 8-1 and see a nearly flawless team because of a nearly flawless record. The Cowboys have certainly demonstrated a consistent degree of strength for months now, but last week saw them brought to the brink by a team on a losing streak that now stretches back an entire month.
Not only did the Steelers bring the Cowboys nearly to the brink of defeat, but they did so without the offensive firepower Pittsburgh has enjoyed over the past few season. Antonio Brown is still a premier receiver, but Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant's absence has allowed opposing teams to double and triple team Brown because they haven't needed to focus nearly as much attention at the likes of Darius Heyward-Bey, Sammie Coates, and Eli Rogers. Without the same caliber offensive weapons the Steelers needed to rely on an inconsistent defensive unit to bottle up one of the league's most potent offenses. Until Cameron Heyward became injured, that Steelers defense did exactly that.
Why was it that the Cowboys suddenly looked as though they were going to lose after beating 5 consecutive non-divisional opponents by an average of over two touchdowns? Injuries. Injuries to the offensive line made rushing more difficult for most of the game, and injuries to the secondary allowed the Cowboys defense to hemorrhage passing yards and touchdowns to the Steelers. Suddenly the Cowboys face a Ravens team coming off of an extended rest period, and the Cowboys still have critical injuries to their secondary and nagging injuries to their left offensive tackle. Are the Cowboys at the same strength now as they were when they destroyed the Packers or Bengals? It would appear not, but they were strong enough to keep their winning streak alive on the road last week, and that fact can't be discounted. So I guess the phrase should be "you are what your record and injury report say you are."
The Ravens aren't without injuries of their own. Left guard Alex Lewis isn't slated to return until the last game of the season, and the both Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil are listed as doubtful. The Ravens defense hasn't had a healthy Dumervil all season, but Jimmy Smith is an integral cog in the works of the NFL's top rated defensive unit. We'll see if he suits up after all on Sunday. For now, however, let's take a look at what is likely to happen across the league!
THE PICKS
STEELERS AT BROWNS- The Steelers run defense is far worse without Cameron Heyward, but he won't be required to beat the Browns. The Steelers offense put up over 440 yards of offense against a better defense last week, and they'll likely torch the lowest rated defense in football this week. A word of caution for the Steelers though: conditions in Cleveland will be incredibly windy with gusts in excess of 30 miles per hour. Joe Haden and high winds could limit Antonio Brown's production, so Pittsburgh will need to lean on Le'Veon Bell. I simply can't see Big Ben losing this game, but it could be far closer than most would expect, but black and yellow should pull away late. STEELERS 27-17
RAVENS AT COWBOYS- I was not impressed with the Cowboys for nearly the first three quarters of last week's game against the Steelers. I've said for over a month to friends and readers that the Cowboys are the elite team that the Ravens were designed to beat. The Cowboys run the football, but the Ravens stuff the run. Dak Prescott has been efficient, safe, and effective, but he's never had to carry the team on his back. The Ravens tend to feast on rookie quarterbacks, and this certainly is not the most talented one they've faced. Dak has not yet gone against a safety like Eric Weddle, and his biggest weapon, Dez Bryant will be playing with a recently aggravated nagging back injury that limited him to a single catch against the Browns two weeks ago. The Ravens haven't lost a game with a healthy Ronnie Stanley, and they've never lost to the Cowboys. The Cowboys don't provide a particularly threatening pass rush, and Flacco has come alive as of late running a no-huddle offense. The Ravens simply have too much speed between Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, and a recently reactivated a 6'6" tight end who ran a 4.46 forty yard dash at the NFL combine in 2015, Darren Waller. Steve Smith Sr. will make a team pay if it fails to commit to stop him, and Dennis Pitta is still liable to find soft spots in an opposing defense for some clutch plays. The Cowboys secondary is vulnerable, but the Ravens may actually find success on the ground as well. Kenneth Dixon is a chain moving beast. His return to health and his skill not only running the football but also catching passes could prove to be the big difference between the Baltimore offense of earlier this season and the one that crushed the Browns in the second half last week. This Ravens team is rested, it's revamped, and ready to go. I know full well that this is a quality opponent with a lot of offensive firepower, but they showed their weaknesses last week, and simply don't have enough defensively to match up with one of the fastest receiving corps in football. The more I look at the stats and relevant stats for this game, the more I like Baltimore's chances. This is going to be an amazing game. RAVENS 27-23.
JAGUARS AT LIONS- The Jaguars almost don't have anything to play for and the Lions are a decent team playing at home...hmmmm, this is a tough one. LIONS 28-13
TITANS AT COLTS- The Titans have a better record than the Colts, but the Colts finally have all of their starting offensive pieces healthy and ready to go. The Colts beat the Titans in Nashville earlier this season, and they should be able to edge Tennessee once more in Indy. This won't be a blowout though as the Titans have absolutely improved since the last time these two teams met. COLTS 33-24
BILLS AT BENGALS- The Bengals defense is starting to look tired and slow, and A.J. Green is not enough without Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu to make this offense truly dynamic anymore. Expect a big game from Lesean McCoy and a good amount of pressure on Andy Dalton to force some unfortunate errant throws...well only unfortunate if you're a Bengals fan. This loss would drop Cincy to 3-6-1, and it would mean they'd have to win out to have a chance to win their division--something they're not likely to do. It was nice knowing ya, Marvin Lewis. BILLS 31-20
BUCCANEERS AT CHIEFS- The Chiefs defense is too strong to lose this game at home. The Buccaneers do have a strong road record though, and they'll likely make this a game. CHIEFS 30-21
BEARS AT GIANTS- The Giants will improve to 7-3 with a huge win over a miserable Bears team this week. Eli Manning is finding his rhythm, and his defense is playing well enough to give the offense plenty of opportunities to put up points. GIANTS 28-13
CARDINALS AT VIKINGS- The Cardinals defense won't allow the abysmal Vikings offense to move the football. The Cardinals offense, however, has just enough firepower to win this game. CARDINALS 17-13
DOLPHINS AT RAMS- There will be a day sooner or later when the Dolphins lose another game, but it will NOT be tomorrow. The Dolphins have won some impressive games over the course of their current four game winning streak, and the Rams are significantly worse than 3 our of 4 of the opponents they just beat. DOLPHINS 31-16
PATRIOTS AT 49ERS- The 49ers have had the occasional close game with a quality opponent, but at this point they're 1-8 and haven't a prayer of outscoring the Patriots. San Francisco's defense is absolutely horrible, and will get shredded by the Patriots even without Gronk. I feel bad for Torrey Smith as he's putting up the worst receiving stats of his career with only 243 receiving yards and two touchdowns on the season. I bet he's homesick... PATRIOTS 42-21
EAGLES AT SEATTLE- The Eagles have only beaten one team on the road this season, and it was the horrendous Bears. The Seahawks actually have my vote as the strongest team in football, and they'll go to town on the Eagles at home. Seattle was able to keep the PATRIOTS out of the endzone for an end-of-game goal line stand. Russell Wilson is playing at a scary high level, and his defense is getting back to its old, dominant form. SEAHAWKS 33-20
PACKERS AT REDSKINS- The Packers have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Redskins are on a tear. The skins defense isn't strong enough to make this a blowout, but the Packers defense has given up a disturbing number of points to opposing teams over the last 5 weeks. Mike McCarthy will likely lose his job if the Packers keep losing. REDSKINS 31-28
TEXANS AT RAIDERS- The Texans' record of 6-3 might seem only slightly worse than the Raiders' 7-2, but the Raiders have serious wins over contending teams. The Texans have narrow wins over mediocre and plain bad opponents. The Texans offense simply won't be able to keep up with that of the Raiders, especially not on the road. RAIDERS 34-23
THE IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER IS THAT NOTHING CAN KNOCK THE RAVENS OUT OF FIRST PLACE IN THEIR DIVISION THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS A FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY FOR THE RAVENS DEFENSE TO SHOW IT CAN PERFORM AGAINST EVEN A TOP OFFENSE, AND IT'S AN EVEN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE RAVENS OFFENSE TO SHOW TO CAN BE PRODUCTIVE AGAINST SERIOUS TEAMS. WHATEVER HAPPENS TOMORROW, LET'S HOPE THE RAVENS SHOW THEY'RE GETTING BETTER. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THAT THEY TYPICALLY FIND THEIR RHYTHM.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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