Monday, February 4, 2013

SUPER BOWL REACTION AND ANALYSIS

     The Ravens Nation is proud of its team, and there's nothing that can take away the feeling of sheer triumph that surged through the hearts and minds of fans late last night.  Joe Flacco tied Joe Montana for the most touchdown passes in a single post-season without an interception, Ray Lewis set an NFL record for the most tackles in a single post-season, Ed Reed tied Ronnie Lott's all time NFL record for most career playoff interceptions, and Jacoby Jones tied his own NFL record for the longest kickoff return of all time with 108 yards from the endzone.  With that said, there are still those (eh EHM--Skip Bayless) who would like to blame the Ravens victory on questionable officiating or some such nonsense, and I will tell you why their claims are patently false.
     The biggest gripe I heard from both the national media and the 49ers' head coach, Jim Harbaugh, was that Jimmy Smith was holding in the endzone on the 49ers' final 4th down play from the 5 yard line.  The receiver that Smith was guarding became engaged with Smith and pushed off of him in an attempt to gain separation.  Because of the massive push-off the referee did not throw a flag.  Some might argue that the holding occurred prior to the push-off and a flag should have been thrown immediately.  What they DO NOT realize is that the penalty for holding in the endzone is a safety.  That would have meant that the 49ers would have been awarded only 2 points and would have still trailed the Ravens by 3.  The Ravens would then boot the ball deep to the other side of the field and the 49ers would have little time and a single timeout to try to get back down the field.  For this reason, the Ravens corners were actually coached to hold their receivers on the play since a flag would have yielded a desired result.
     Beyond that, however, the 49ers got away with plenty of holding and pass interference earlier in the game.  I recall a deep pass to Torrey Smith where Torrey was first held and then interfered with as the ball came his way.  The ball fell either close to or in the endzone and a penalty on that play would have likely set up another Ravens score that would have effectively put this game out of reach.  The 49ers never once got called for massive and numerous blocks in the back on kick off and punt returns, and the there was a horrendous no-call on a critical 3rd down play from about the 2 yard line where Flacco was hit violently after he had already gone out of bounds.  A flag there would have given the Ravens 1st and goal from the 1 yard line and would have allowed them to run out the clock or simply go in for a touchdown to put the game out of reach.  The officials did not call a single holding penalty all night despite visible jersey pulling at the line of scrimmage by the 49ers.  All in all, the refs simply let a lot of things go.  Any way you look at it, the Ravens were almost certainly going to win this game. 

    Ok, enough about the bad things that happened.  Let's examine some of the GREAT things that happened in this game.  Joe Flacco demonstrated an ability to drive seemingly at will on a defense that allowed the fewest points in the league during the regular season.  Joe was able to do so in large part because of the athleticism displayed by a superior receiving corps.  Anquan Boldin deserves a medal for his heroic, clutch plays in this post season and in the last 3 years that he has been a Raven.  Joe knows that he can throw the ball in Q's direction and the sure-handed, physical receiver will likely come down with the catch.  Jacoby Jones didn't make many catches this season, but the ones he made were spectacular and absolutely essential to the Ravens going 4-0 in the post-season.  Beyond that, the Ravens literally would not have won a handful of games and gotten to and through the playoffs without Jacoby's 4 returns for touchdowns this season.  His explosive track speed makes him absolutely invaluable to this team and he should be retained as long as he can move like that.
     From a defensive standpoint, the Ravens held the 49ers without a touchdown for a majority of the game.  They appeared tired and slow later in the game, but managed to hold together when it really counted--in the red zone.  Ed Reed's interception and Courtney Upshaw's forced fumble both proved pivitol in halting what might have otherwise continued on to be scoring drives for the 49ers.  This should give Ed Reed a good case for one final contract with the Ravens, and I sure hope they can work something out soon because there's really no replacing history's greatest free safety.
     I could continue further about impressive plays and questionable calls, but the discussion won't change the ultimate outcome of last night.  The Ravens won the Super Bowl and they did so in dramatic fashion.  The offense put up enough points to win, but in the end, the game came down to a goal line stand by the most consistently dominant defense of the last dozen years...with #52 at the helm.  You kept the faith Baltimore, and your team rewarded you for it!!! Oh, I almost forgot:  Purple Nightmare went 10-1 in playoff predictions, and now improves to 17-2 all time!!

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!!


Friday, February 1, 2013

SUPER BOWL PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS!!

     Well, football fans, this is it.  The Super Bowl is upon us, and I couldn't be more excited.  First, I must address this week's allegations that Ray Lewis consumed PEDs in the form of deer antler velvet oral spray.  I understand that a large percentage of professional athletes use drugs to enhance their performance.  It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Ray Lewis has, at some point, used steroids or other controlled substances.  Deer antler velvet spray, however, is not a banned substance.  Members of the media heard that the owner of the company in question claimed that this substance contained IGF-1 (insulin-like growth factor).  According to a doctor at Johns Hopkins, however, the problem with that claim is that IGF-1 can't be consumed orally in spray form.  It's a highly unstable subtance that must be carefully contained in certain conditions and then injected by the user in order to reap the benefits.  In the article published in the Baltimore Sun, the doctor goes on to explain that any trace amounts of IGF-1 found in deer antler velvet would be essentially too miniscule and useless to affect muscle tissue growth or result in a positive drug test.  To read the article, click on this link:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/baltimore-sports-blog/bal-ray-lewis-denies-using-banned-substance-during-rehab-from-injury-20130129,0,7725655.story

     In other words, even if Ray Lewis DID consume the supplement in question, he wouldn't have gained the edge of IGF-1.  Hopefully this will put the matter to rest and we can move passed it to more a far more important issue....THE SUPER BOWL!!!

     The Ravens are once again not favored by Vegas oddsmakers going into this weekend, but that has proven totally irrelevant thus far in the playoffs, and it will likely prove totally irrelevant once again in a matter of days.  The Ravens went to Denver and beat what was likely their most difficult opponent in the post-season already.  The Ravens then went into Foxboro and held one of history's highest scoring teams to 13 points.  The 49ers, meanwhile, beat a flawed Packers team at home in San Francisco and then fought back to edge an opponent that has won only one playoff game in the last 9 years.  It should be, therefore, no surprise that I give the Ravens an edge in this game.  How much of an edge I give them will depend on the following analysis of relevant statistics, personnel health, and each teams' respective style of play. 

RAVENS AT 49ERS

     Both the Ravens and 49ers have looked quite different in the post-season than they each did for most of the 2012 regular season.  The 49ers spent the first 14 weeks of the regular season playing absolutely suffocating defense and allowed the fewest points per game of any team in the league.  The Ravens, by contrast, struggled uncharacteristcally on defense for most of the season due to a rash of injuries to their defensive starters.  The Ravens were forced in many situations to rely upon their offense to win games, and that offense seemed to often disappear on the road.  The 49ers put up impressive offensive numbers for most of the season, but a few teams discovered serious weaknesses in the 49ers' gameplan and were able to exploit those weaknesses in spectacular fashion.
     Now let's fast forward to the post-season.  The Ravens defense got almost all of its starters back in relatively healthy condition, and the defense allowed only 4 offensive touchdowns in 3 playoff games that featured the league's two highest scoring teams.  Meanwhile, the 49ers lost their defensive edge when star defensive lineman, Justin Smith, partially tore his triceps tendon towards the end of the regular season.  Since Smith's injured his arm, the once defensively stout 49ers have allowed an astounding 28.8 points per game and also 27.5 points per game thus far in the playoffs.  The 49ers, like the Ravens earlier this season, have had to rely on offensive production in order to win games since the decline of their defensive unit.  The only problem is that the 49ers have likely managed high offensive production because they've only faced playoff teams with poor defenses thus far.  The Ravens are currently firing on all cylinders, and they have the numbers to prove it. 
     The Baltimore Ravens have averaged exactly 30 points per game in this post season.  During that same period, they have only allowed 19 points per game, and that was against the toughest competition they've seen all season.  The Ravens have also once again demonstrated a knack for creating turnovers in the playoffs.  The 49ers didn't play in the wildcard round of the playoffs as they had a bye, so we'll compare each team's statistics over the last two weeks.  During that timespan, the Ravens have forced 6 turnovers (2 fumbles and 4 interceptions) while giving up only 1 (a fumble).  The 49ers have done reasonably well forcing 4 turnovers (2 fumbles and 2 interceptions) but gave up 2 turnovers (1 interception and 1 fumble).  The Ravens turnover ratio is 6:1 as opposed to the 49ers' 2:1 turnover ratio--the Ravens clearly have the edge here.
     There's no question that the 49ers have struggled on defense in the post-season, but their offense have continued to prove potent enough to win games.  The 49ers averaged 36.5 points per game in the last two weeks and put up 28 points on a Falcons defense that allowed only 17 points per game in Atlanta this season.  Much of the 49ers' offensive success can be attributed to its tough running game that ranked 4th in the NFL with an average of 155.7 rushing yards per game.  The 49ers have a strong offensive line with great run-blocking ability, and that paves the way for Frank Gore.  Gore had over 1200 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns during the regular season.  In the playoffs, Gore has continued his dominance with an average of 104.5 rushing yards per game and 3 touchdowns in the last two weeks.  Gore has carried the ball a total of 43 times in the last two weeks, and stopping him will be a top priority for the Ravens.
     The other top defensive priority for the Ravens will be containing Colin Kaepernick.  Kaepernick has incredible speed and has shown he's capable of making plays with his legs.  The young quarterback had over 400 rushing yards and averaged 6.6 yards per carry during the 8 regular season games in which he started.  More importantly, Kaepernick has amassed over 200 rushing yards in two playoffs games including an NFL record single game quarterback performance of 181 yards on the ground!  The goal of the Ravens will be to set the edge against Kaepernick and make sure that he doesn't get outside of the Ravens defense.  The Ravens will, instead, try to force Colin Kapernick to test the Ravens interior defense where he will be more vulnerable to big, devastating hits and will be less likely to extend and complete passing plays. 
    
     Possibly one of the most perplexing things I've heard and read over the last two weeks is that the 49ers are "more talented" and have "better weaponry" than the Ravens.  I haven't the faintest idea of what these people are talking about though. Let's compare the two teams.
      The Ravens have a better group of running backs.  Ray Rice, Bernard Pierce, and Vonta Leach are simply better than Frank Gore and company.  Gore is still a great back, but Ray Rice is the greatest all-purpose weapon in the NFL (let's see Frank Gore convert on 4th and 29), and leading the way for him is the league's best full back.  Bernard Pierce has been particularly impressive as well and serves as a fantastic compliment to Rice.  ADVANTAGE: RAVENS.
     Then we have the Ravens receivers.  There's really no way around it; Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, Dennis Pitta, and Jacoby Jones make up a far more dynamic receiving corps than the 49ers possess.  Randy Moss is close to useless at this point, Michael Crabtree is good but not amazing, and Vernon Davis has had a rather quiet season as most opposing teams have successfully taken him away as a threat with good gameplanning.  ADVANTAGE: RAVENS
     I keep reading about how great the 49ers offensive line has been this season, but the Ravens offensive line has come alive since being reshuffled to form the most dominant pass protecting unit in the playoffs.  The 49ers offensive line probably is the better run-blocking team so we'll have to look at this one as a bit of a draw.  ADVANTAGE: EVEN
    Nothing has made me more annoyed than reading and hearing people say things such as "how are the Ravens going to stop Colin Kaepernick?"...as though he's the best quarterback the Ravens will have faced this season.  Kaepernick is a talented  young guy, there's no question about that, but he simply hasn't impressed me the way he has impressed the rest of America.  Colin Kaepernick, as I've said numerous times before, has had the luxury of playing against teams will mediocre and poor defenses thus far in the playoffs.  Joe Flacco has somehow been overlooked by the media in some capacity.  He has, thus far, had one of the greatest post-seasons in NFL history and no one outside of Baltimore seems to think the 49ers should be afraid of him.  He has outplayed Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and done so without throwing a single interception.  He spreads the ball out to his receivers and running backs in such a fashion that torched even the highest rated defense going into the post season.  Joe can make any throw on the field, and he has shown that he has total confidence in his offensive line and receiving corps.  This is possibly the biggest offensive disparity in all of these comparisons.  ADVANTAGE: RAVENS
     On the defensive side of the ball, I would have given a large advantage to the 49ers in many areas about 6 weeks ago.  Then something catastropic happened to the 49ers and something miraculous happened to the Ravens.  Justin Smith tore over half way through his triceps tendon in one arm.  I've spoken ad nauseum about how that negatively affected the entire 49ers defense.  The 49ers no longer have a serious pass rush, and that exposes their secondary.  The Ravens, on the other hand, got almost all of their defensive stars and starters back on the field healthy.  Their pass rush has been strong as they've been able to pressure the two greatest quarterbacks of a generation into throwing two interceptions each.  The Ravens secondary is much more talented than that of the 49ers as well.  Bernard Pollard is the most physical strong safety in football, and Ed Reed is so feared that quarterbacks seldom even throw over the middle of the field against him.  Corey Graham has proven a incredible aquisition, and Cary Williams has shown himself to be a solid corner and a good ball hawk after a rocky start to the regular season. 
     The only advantage I would give to the 49ers is in their linebacker corps, but it's not nearly as big of an advantage as people think.  Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are top notch linebackers, and there's really no question about that.  Dannell Ellerbe, however, fantastic in pass coverage, and Ray Lewis can still lay out a big hit and stop the run when he needs to do so. ADVANTAGE: 49ERS
   As far as the pass rush and defensive line is concerned, Terrell Suggs is back in impressive form, Paul Kruger is an absolute monster, and Courtney Upshaw is developing quite nicely, and Haloti Ngata is a beast when he has time to rest and heal his ailing knee.  The 49ers had a great defensive line earlier in the season, but it's simply not up to par with the Ravens D line since Justin Smith is playing with essentially one good arm.  ADVANTAGE: RAVENS
     The final major matchup disparity is in the area of kicking.  David Akers has struggled this season due to health reasons, and Justin Tucker has put together one of the greatest rookie seasons of a kicker in NFL history.  Tucker is clutch; Akers is close to useless at this point.  ADVANTAGE: RAVENS

     I know this is the most important prediction I will make all season, but it's actually one of the easiest for me.  Many commentators and writers predict that this game will be close, and I fully understand that there's a tendency to do so in order to respect each team involved.  I, however, don't believe this will be a nail-biting squeaker.  The Ravens faced much tougher competition in the Broncos and Patriots in their respective stadiums.  The 49ers defense has been unimpressive for a long time now, and it has been especially unimpressive on the road.  The Ravens have never lost with two weeks to prepare for a game in the Harbaugh-Flacco era, and they aren't about to start now.  The 49ers are quite one dimensional on offense (despite what people may think) and their heavy reliance on their running game will make it tough for them to come back from a late game deficit against the Ravens.  The Ravens will simply protect Joe Flacco too well against a broken 49ers pass rush, and the 49ers simply don't have the seconary to stop the Ravens receivers.  If they double team Torrey Smith, Joe will get the ball to Pitta and Boldin all game long with the occassional big play to Jacoby Jones.  The Ravens are simply too strong against teams that can't pressure Flacco, and it doesn't seem like any team can do that right now... let alone the 49ers. 
MY SUPER BOWL PREDICTION: RAVENS 34-23.

     This might actually be a conservative estimate.  The Patriots had the highest scoring offense in the NFL this season and the Ravens held them to 13 points on the road.  The 49ers may lose this by a pair of touchdowns or more, but I think an 11 point win is a good conservative estimate just in case the 49ers get some late points in garbage time.  This season has been a terrifying roller coaster ride filled with giant heights, huge drops, and the occassional loop thrown in there, but the Ravens did exactly what we all hoped they'd do: they peaked at the right time.  Wear your purple proudly all weekend, Baltimore!  Soon we get to hear Ray lead the guys one last time when he asks them:
WHAT TIME IS IT??? GAME TIME!!!!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!!!!