Wednesday, October 24, 2012

WEEK 8 NFL PREDICTIONS AND RAVENS RECAP

WHAT WENT WRONG IN HOUSTON??

    
    I don't think there is a single member of the Ravens Nation that wasn't totally bummed after watching their team doing almost everything wrong at Houston last weekend.  My prediction of that game couldn't have been much further off, but I should have known better.  There were two major reasons that the game was as lopsided as it was, and they are as follows:

#1 Lardarius Webb's absence leaves the Ravens embarrassingly vulnerable to the pass.  While he's on the field, Webb pretty much shuts down his side.  He did not give up a single touchdown last season, and his statistics were actually demonstratively better than even Darrelle Revis' this season before they both came out with torn ACLs.  Quarterbacks seldom threw in Lardarius' direction this season, and they had little success when they tried.  Webby also was a sure tackler and masterful on corner blitzes.  When Lardarius Webb was out against the Chargers last season, Jimmy Smith started in his place and the Ravens were absolutely destroyed by a team with a far inferior record.  Phillip Rivers picked on Jimmy Smith all day long, and Cam Cameron felt it necessary to abandon the run and mostly pass in order to play catchup with a big deficit...which brings us to point #2.

#2 Cam Cameron refuses to learn from his mistakes and also his success.  Cam panics when the Ravens defense doesn't perform well and he limits Ray Rice's carries to conserve play clock in hopes that Joe Flacco will just magically run 4-5 successful 2 minute drill style drives the way that Peyton Manning always seems to do in the second half of games that he's losing.  The problem is that Joe's success passing the ball hinges on the playaction fake.  As many of you know, you must run the ball well to effectively sell the play action fake and open things up for the receivers.  Joe is not an incredibly mobile passer, and the play action fake allows to roll out of the pocket and it gives him a few more seconds to allow his receivers to separate as he launches the ball down the field.  This is especially important as the Ravens' offensive line has allowed far too much pressure when Flacco stays in the pocket.  The math has already been done.  When Ray Rice has had less than 15 touches in a game the Ravens almost always lose and when he has 20+ touches they almost always win.  I'm probably the millionth person to say it, but the Ravens simply must ultilize their best offensive weapon to be able to win games.  The defense is playing poorly, and the only way the Ravens can hope to win many more games (especially road games) is to open up the passing game by establishing the run.  You'd think Cam would have learned by now...

     With all of that said, I did pretty well in my predictions last week.  I went 9-4 to bring my record on the season thus far to 37-18.  I was surprised that the Bengals ended up losing a close game to the Steelers, and I was surprised that the Titans were able to edge the Bills by a point.  I was less surprised that the Saints won a close game with the Buccaneers as I assumed it would be a very tight divisional matchup...I simply assumed the Bucs would come out on top.  Regardless, I am pleased that I've gotten twice as many correct as I have incorrect thus far, and I hope week 8 is even better.  Let's get to the week 8 picks, shall we?

WEEK 8 PICKS

BUCCANEERS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings are simply too strong of a team this year to lose this one at home to the Buccaneers.  Adrian Peterson will most likely have a strong performance and the Vikings defense won't give Josh Freeman much room with which to work.  Christian Ponder has had his ups and downs thus far, but the Buccaneers are ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense and I have a feeling he'll light them up. MY PREDICTION: VIKINGS 23-14.

PANTHERS AT BEARS- DAAAAAAA BEARS.  MY PREDICTION: BEARS 26-10.

CHARGERS AT BROWNS- The Browns really aren't even close to as bad as their record indicates--but then again, in the NFL, teams are only as good as their record indicates, and the Browns are 1-6.  The Browns have lost some close games to good teams, but the Chargers are coming off of two losses to teams with elite quarterbacks (Drew Brees and Peyton Manning).  I don't think highly of the Chargers because Phillip Rivers is so prone to big, costly mistakes, but I don't think the Browns have the firepower to score enough points against a rather strong Chargers defense to win the game.  MY PREDICTION: CHARGERS 27-16.

SEAHAWKS AT LIONS- The Lions have been a total disappointment this season, and the Seahawks have been a pleasant surprise.  The Lions have the 6th ranked passing offense by yardage thus far, but they aren't a great running team.  The Seahawks have an easy time containing pass-heavy teams such as the Patriots, but a tougher time containing teams that can run the ball such as the 49ers and Rams.  If Matthew Stafford shows up, this could be a game, but all logic would suggest that the Seahawks win this one with great defense and by keeping Stafford off the field with a fantastic running game.  Man, this reminds me of the old Ravens...*sigh*  MY PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 19-13.

PATRIOTS AT RAMS- The Patriots stop the run pretty well and the Rams have a fairly poorly ranked passing offense.  I simply don't see the Rams stopping a very balanced Patriots offense.  The Patriots now run the ball well and still have the 5th ranked pass offense in the league.  I simply don't think the Rams will score enough points to win this game.  MY PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 31-20.

DOLPHINS AT JETS- This game is almost too close to call.  The Jets won 23-20 in overtime over the Dolphins in Miami in week 3, but the Jets no longer have Darrelle Revis.  The Jets have looked better in the last couple of weeks, but the Dolphins are coming off of two nice wins against the Bengals in Cincy and at home against the Rams.  This is a total toss-up, but I think I gotta go with my gut and choose the home team in this one.  I believe the Jets will give the ball to Shonne Green enough open things up for Sanchez and the passing game.  The Jets defense should be able to stop the Dolphins, but this will come right down to the wire again.  MY PREDICTION: JETS 26-20.

FALCONS AT EAGLES- The Falcons are undefeated, but they've won their last 3 games by a combined 12 points to 3 teams that have only 6 wins combined.  The Eagles aren't a great team.  They have a quarterback who is prone to big time mistakes and turnovers, but they also have the talent and firepower that gives them the potential to beat some pretty impressive teams including the Ravens, and Giants.  The Eagles are also coming off of a bye week, and injuries to memebers of their offensive line should be much improved at this point.  This is my upset of the week as I pick the Eagles to win this one narrowly.  MY PREDICTION: EAGLES 31-28.

REDSKINS AT STEELERS- The spectacular play of rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III has kept the Redskins in every single game they have played thus far, and they have had a brutal schedule.  The Redskins have not lost a single game by more than a touchdown and they have the best rush offense in the league averaging 177 yards per game.  The Steelers, however, have their own talented quarterback, and they have only lost road games this year though they've only played two home games thus far.  I think this one will come down to which team is more banged up...that team is the Steelers.  Mendenhall hasn't practiced yet this week, and Polamalu is out.  MY PREDICTION: REDSKINS 30-23.

 JAGUARS AT PACKERS- Packers.  MY PREDICTION: PACKERS 38-13.

COLTS AT TITANS- The Titans are picking up steam, and the Colts have been absolutely dominated in each of the two road games they've played this season. MY PREDICTION: TITANS 31-20.

RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- The Raiders aren't good, but neither are the Chiefs.  Arrowhead Stadium is a touch place to play, but the Chiefs have yet to win at home this season.  This should be a lowdown showdown between two bottom tier teams.  MY PREDICTION: RAIDERS 28-17.

GIANTS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys won the first matchup between these two teams, but that was in large part due to the fact that the replacement officials allowed the Cowboys to get away with some painfully obvious holding in the secondary.  Eli has been on fire recently, and the Giants have re-establised their running game and defense.  This will undoubtedly be one of the most exciting games of the week.  MY PREDICTION: GIANTS 26-24.

SAINTS AT BRONCOS- This will be a big showdown between two quarterbacks that have a tendency to carry their respective teams.  The big difference is that the Broncos can run the ball when they need to and they actually play defense.  The Saints have the first ranked passing offense in the league, but they rank dead last in rushing, 30th in pass defense, and 31st in run defense.  With that said, this should be quite a battle.  MY PREDICTION: BRONCOS 35-28.

49ERS AT CARDINALS-  Do I even have to say this one? MY PREDICTION: 49ERS 38-10.


     The bye week should give the Ravens a chance to regroup and do what needs to be done to beat the next two losing teams they face before their first big showdown with the Steelers.  Hopefully, Terrell Suggs will continue to improve his conditioning and get in even better shape to give a big boost to the Ravens pass rush.  Haloti Ngata should also come back healthy, and Pernell McPhee should also have some time to heal his nagging injuries that have kept him from returning to last year's form.  The Ravens pass rush will have to get VERY much stronger very quickly to help minimize the effects of losing Lardarius Webb on the pass defense.  I would like to see the Ravens start Corey Graham instead of Jimmy Smith, but I have a feeling that they're going to give Jimmy another shot...who the hell knows why...  Anyway, Ravens fans won't have to stress this weekend and we'll get to kick back and watch the rest of the NFL unfold for another week before the Ravens face the Browns.  As always, GO RAVENS!!

Thursday, October 18, 2012

WEEK 7 NFL PREDICTIONS

     So last week I predicted 8 games incorrectly.  I knew it would be a week where I'd get a decent number wrong, but I had no idea that number would be 8.  With that said, there were a few games that I was absolutely delighted to have predicted incorrectly.  It's always thrilling when the Patriots lose, and I get downright giddy when the Steelers fall--and both happened last week.  I was happy to see the Eagles fall even further with an overtime loss to the Lions, and watching Peyton Manning rally the Broncos from a 24-0 halftime deficit to beat the Chargers in San Diego brought a smile to my face despite not being a Broncos fan.  My prediction record that was 22-6 is now 28-14 which isn't bad, but I would hope I learn from last week and get back on track in week 7.  I was happy that I correctly picked the Redskins to beat an impressive Vikings team, and the winless Browns to finally break their losing streak with their first victory over a divisional opponent in just over 2 years.  Ok, enough about week 6, on to WEEK 7!!

WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS

SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS- This is a tough game to predict as the Seahawks have truly picked up steam and the 49ers displayed their vulnerability even at home last week against the Giants.  With that said, the Seahawks matched up well at home with the Patriots.  It didn't matter than the Seahawks rank close to last in passing yards per game because the Patriots rank close to last in passing yards allowed per game.  The 49ers will be a different story.  The 49ers' defense ranks in the top 10 in both rushing (9nd) and passing (2nd) yards allowed, and they will be playing with a homefield advantage that will make things tough for an opposing rookie quarterback.  These teams are very similar, but I'm going to have to give this one to the 49ers.  They are going to come back big after a loss.  MY PREDICTION: 49ERS 24-17.

TITANS AT BILLS- The Titans and Bills are both coming off of impressive late game wins.  The Titans hit a last second field goal to beat the Steelers, and the Bills beat the Cardinals in overtime.  I, however, give both teams little credit for beating a Cardinals team that appears to be dropping off sharply since the replacement refs got the boot and a Steelers team with a startling number of major injuries and a losing record.  With that said, the Bills' running game has picked up recently, and they should run all over the Titans' poor run defense.  I'm going with the home team on this one.  MY PREDICTION: BILLS 30-21.

GIANTS AT REDSKINS- As good as the Giants have looked in the last few weeks you would think this would be a total no-brainer.  The Redskins, however, swept the Giants last season, and the Giants have struggled to defend against teams with highly mobile quarterbacks such as Michael Vick and Tony Romo.  The Redskins will not have much of a homefield advantage as the Giants play their best football on the road for some unknown reason.  This game, much like all of the games the Redskins have played thus far, will undoubtedly be a total shootout.  The Redskins' pass defense is dead last in the NFL and the Giant's passing offense is 5th in yards per game.  Beyond that, the Giants' running game has surged recently and will only further open up their passing attack.  The Redskins might prove me wrong, but I think this will end up as another heartbreaking close loss for them.  MY PREDICTION: GIANTS 38-30.

SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS- Divisional rivalry games are always difficult to predict.  Both of these teams have lost a good number of incredibly close games.  The Saints have a potent passing attack, but they can't run the ball, stop the run, or stop the pass.  The Buccaneers have an elite run defense but an incredibly poor pass defense.  The Bucs' passing game is also poor, but should have success against a horrendous Saints' pass defense. I absolutely hate predicting showdowns between mediocre and bad teams, but if I had to pick a winner of this game it would be the Buccaneers.  The Saints put plenty of points on the board, but their inability to play defense on the road will ultimately lead to yet another loss here. MY PREDICTION: BUCCANEERS 38-35.

COWBOYS AT PANTHERS- Both the Cowboys and Panthers have played games that would give me reason to think they could win this one.  This contest will ultimately boil down to whichever team wins the turnover battle.  Both Romo and Newton throw a lot of picks, and the Cowboys looked rather undisciplined with lots of penalties against the Ravens last week.  The Panthers have lost a lot of close games against good teams, but the Cowboys simply have the offensive firepower and defensive superiority needed to win this game.  I'm taking a risk here and I know it, but I'm taking the Cowboys.  MY PREDICTION: COWBOYS 26-16.

RAVENS AT TEXANS- A lot of people are talking about how great the Texans are and how injured the Ravens have become in the week.  Few people, however, fail to take into account the fact that the Texans have looked absolutely abysmal since Brian Cushing tore is ACL against the Jets.  The Jets nearly came back to win that game after being absolutely destroyed in the first half.  The Texans were then blown out by a Packers team that was fresh off of a blowout loss to the Colts.  Without Brian Cushing, the Packers simply double-teamed JJ Watt, and the Texans' pass rush was mostly neutralized.  In addition, the Texans shutdown corner, Jonathan Joseph, is dealing with a groin injury that led to him being burnt by a relatively slow receiver compared to the likes of Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones.  On top of all of that, the Ravens have never ever lost to the Texans...EVER!  If Terrell Suggs returns and contributes well, this game will be totally lopsided.  With that said, Arian Foster could have a big day and make this a tough contest, but the lack of a serious pass rush and poor secondary play will allow the Ravens' offense to come alive on the road for the first time this season.  I know I sound like a total homer, but I don't think people fully understand what the loss of Brian Cushing means to the Texans.  MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 30-23.

BROWNS AT COLTS- The Browns aren't as bad as their record suggests, but the Colts are a good team at home and will throw all day on an inferior Browns pass defense.  MY PREDICTION: COLTS 28-20.

PACKERS AT RAMS- Not going to think about this one too hard, but I think this is a game the Packers will win.  Aaron Rodgers has found his mojo.  MY PREDICTION: PACKERS 31-19.

CARDINALS AT VIKINGS- The Cardinals' stock is falling fast, and the Vikings have proven a solid contender this year.  This is another game that doesn't need a ton of analysis to predict.  MY PREDICTION: VIKINGS 23-10.

JETS AT PATRIOTS- The Jets are hot off of blowout of the Colts, but they won't have the same luck in New England this week.  A large part of the Jets' success against Andrew Luck and company was due to the Colts' in ability to stop the run.  The Patriots, despite their poor pass defense, have an elite run defense, and will have little problem passing all over the Jets without Darrell Revis in the game.  I sure hope the Jets make this one interesting, but I simply can't see the Patriots losing this one at home...this is defenitely one I hope I'm wrong about again.  MY PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 35-21.

JAGUARS AT RAIDERS- This will be a total snoozefest as both teams only have 1 win each.  In this battle of the bottom of the barrel I can only truly give an edge to the Raiders as they have surprisingly rowdy fans and a good homefield advantage.  If I get this wrong, don't think less of me, just think less of the Raiders.  MY PREDICTION: RAIDERS 21-10.

STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Steelers are simply too banged up and injured to win away games right now.  No Polamalu, no Pouncey, and a poor running game has meant that the Steelers are 0-3 on the road through 5 games.  Don't expect them to break that streak in week 7.  I really hope the Bengals don't prove me wrong here.  MY PREDICTION: BENGALS 30-23.

LIONS AT BEARS- The Bears have impressed me with thus far as I'm sure they've impressed many football fans nationwide.  With the exception of one divisional loss to the Packers, the Bears have won every game they've played handedly.  No other team in the NFL can say that, even the undefeated Falcons.  The Lions, on the other hand, look like they've fallen off from the the team that made the playoffs last year.  Matthew Stafford has thrown for plenty of yards but he's averaging less than a touchdown per game and averaging exactly one interception per game.  The Bears excell at forcing turnovers and should pick Stafford off at least 1-2 times in this contest.  Expect another big victory for the Bears here.  MY PREDICTION: BEARS 38-21.

     This will be an exciting week with many interesting matchups.  The Ravens-Texans, Patriots-Jets, Steelers-Bengals, Giants-Redskins, and Seahawks-49ers games will all hopefully prove as exciting as I anticipate them to be.  If Terrell Suggs returns, let's hope he's truly ready to play!  As always GO RAVENS!!!!

Thursday, October 11, 2012

WEEK 6 NFL PREDICTIONS

     So I had written a lengthy post analyzing the Ravens-Chiefs game, and I included a section discussing how I yet again got 3 games wrong in my predictions to bring my season prediction record to 22-6 thus far as I've only predicted the last two weeks.  I instead would like to scrap all of that and see if I can boil it all down to a couple of paragraphs.  Here goes.
     I can't be unhappy with a Ravens win, and I especially can't complain when such a win comes on the road.  I do, however, see serious flaws in Cam Cameron's offense and Dean Pees' defense that seem to be amplified away from M and T Bank Stadium.  On the offensive side, I can't blame Joe Flacco as he was on target with his passes with the exception of an interception.  Dropped passes kept the Ravens from sustaining drives, there's no way around that.  Actually, let's back up a second.  The sheer number of drives that the Ravens were able to attempt was limited by the defense's ability to stop the Chiefs from running the ball in the first half.  It ate up clock and gave the Ravens poor field position when they ultimately DID get the ball back. 
    Rather than look at the ins and outs of why the passing offense sputtered and why the defense struggled for so much of the game, let's look on the bright side.  The Ravens, on a bad, day went on the road in one of the toughest venues in the U.S. and won despite the fact that Joe Flacco didn't throw for many yards.  Joe was averaging over 300 yards per game, and I worried that any team that could hold him well under that number would beat the birds because this season seemed to rest on his shoulders.  Then the old Ravens team from years past popped up.  They stuffed the run in the second half, Ray Rice ran for over 100 yards and dove for a game winning first down, two Raven corners had picks, Ed Reed returned a fumble out of the endzone, Courtney Upshaw recovered a fumble, Paul Kruger stopped Jamaal Charles way back behind the line of scrimmage in the end zone, the Ravens held the home team to 6 points, and they won with field goals...oh and Big Ray shot the gap and just obliterated a guy--whew that's a lot of stuff to list.
     The point is, this team may not have last year's defense, and the Ravens OC might like to play a little too much with his new speedy offensive weapons, but when all else fails, they can win tough road games playing good, old fashioned Raven football!  Moving on...
     As for the games I predicted incorrectly.  I think I spent waaaay too much time overthinking it.  It's the NFL, games don't always go the way you thought they would, but at the end of the day, you learn from them and use what you learned in future predictions.  Here is what I learned, and I'll be brief:

  • This is not Cam Newton's year.  The Seahawks have a defense and running game that reminds me of the Ravens in years past but they also lack a serious quarterback (also reminiscent of Raven days of yore).  I grossly underestimated the Seahawks' ability to win on the road, and I overestimated a Panthers team that gave me zero reason to overestimate them with only one win through 5 weeks.
  • The Packers have lost their edge and Andrew Luck is the real deal.  Oh and Peyton Manning did not make Reggie Wayne what he is today--Reggie is simply one of the greatest receivers in the last couple of decades.  Hats off to the old guy.
  • The Bengals defense is poor.  I need to stop giving them credit for being good last year.  The Bengals have allowed more points than they've scored, and that is a sign that your defense is in trouble.  The Dolphins are starting to build up some steam and I hope they are able to somehow give the Patriots a run for their money.
Ok, that's about all I really had to say, but I said it in far fewer words--and pages.  Let's move on to the week 6 predictions!!

WEEK 6 PREDICTIONS

STEELERS AT TITANS-  The Titans have not looked good yet this year.  They're averaging 65 rushing yards per game which puts them close to dead last in the NFL.  They've only NOT been blown out by one team, and that was an Lion's team that has absoltuely plummeted from their playoff status last year.  The Steelers are also not as good as they were over the last few years, but they were good enough to beat the Eagles last week.  Big Ben is still a great quarterback and the return of Rashard Mendenhall is the factor that will seal the deal in this game.  It's a road game for the Steelers, but they get it done here. MY PREDICTION: STEELERS 28-10.

RAIDERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons looked shakey on the road against the Redskins, but they still came away with a win...on the road.  The Falcons will beat the Raiders quite handedly in the Georgia Dome, 'nuff said.  MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 31-17.

BENGALS AT BROWNS- Call me crazy, but I think this is the week the Browns get their first win.  Brandon Weeden is getting more and more experience as the weeks pass by, and the Bengals appear to be getting worse.  The Bengals only beat the Browns by a touchdown in Cincy, and now the scales will be tipped in favor of the Browns.  MY PREDICTION: BROWNS 27-24.

RAMS AT DOLPHINS- The Rams have impressed me recently, but so have the Fins.  The Dolphins can run the ball and stop the run as they have the best run defense in the NFL allowing only 61.4 yards per game.  I'm gonna give it to the home team on this one, but I think this game is a total toss-up.  MY PREDICTION: DOLPHINS 21-17.

COLTS AT JETS- The Colts really showed us they can come back and win against a rather daunting opponent last week.  The Jets showed us that they could contend with the Texans without Santonion Holmes or Darelle Revis.  I just found out that Robert Mathis will be out for 2-3 weeks.  I think the Colts could pull this one out, but it'll be tougher for them to get the ball back with such a key defensive player out.  I hope Andrew Luck proves me wrong on this one because I like the kid, but I gotta go with Gang Green at home here.  MY PREDICTION: JETS 24-13.

LIONS AT EAGLES- I still hold a grudge after the Ravens-Eagles game, but I don't think there's any way the Eagles lose this game at home...even if Vick starts willfully throwing and handing the ball off to the other team.  MY PREDICTION: EAGLES 20-13.

CHIEFS AT BUCCANEERS- The Bucs aren't a good team.  They have one win against a very bad team, and they're poor from a statistically standpoing in almost every major catergory.  The Chiefs can put up big yardage and stop the run rather well.  The Chiefs simply turn the football over far too much.  I, however, have a feeling the Chiefs won't turn the ball over enough times to lose this game.  This is a game that almost no one should care about, but inevitably someone does.  MY PREDICTION: CHIEFS 23-13.

COWBOYS AT RAVENS- This is a dangerous game for the Ravens.  When Romo is on, he's on.  The Cowboys have the weapons offensively to put up big points on just about anyone, but they also have the tendency to turn the ball over in big games.  Ed Reed is playing out of his mind right now with big hits and a pair of picks, and the Ravens look best against teams when they know they can pin their ears back and rush the passer.  The Cowboys are almost dead last in the league running the ball and their only wins came against a Giants team while the replacement refs were looking the other way on defensive holding, and a narrow win against the impotent Buccanneers.  The Cowboys have a highly rated pass defense, but the Ravens can run the ball on just about anyone and that always sets up the pass...especially at home.  The Ravens have never lost a home game against an NFC team under Harbaugh and they probably won't start now.  MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 27-17.

PATRIOTS AT SEAHAWKS- The Patriots are going to have some trouble moving the ball in such hostile territory, but not THAT much trouble.  The Pats have both the offensive firepower and now the defense to outgun and stop a team with a one-dimensional offense such as the Seahawks.  MY PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 28-17

BILLS AT CARDINALS- The Bills have a poor record and the Cardinals have a great record.  The Cardinals, however, are at the beginning of what I believe to be a downward slide.  This is another game that will probably mean very little at the end of the season since neither team will likely see the playoffs.  I'll give this one to the home team since the Bills can't really pass, they can't stop the pass, they can't really stop the run...pretty much all the bills can do is run the ball and that won't be enough to win on the road here.  MY PREDICTION: CARDINALS 23-14.

GIANTS AT 49ERS- This will be an interesting matchup.  It's a rematch of last season's AFC Championship game and each team has looked rather dominant at times this season.  The 49ers have probably improved a lot more than the Giants have, but I wouldn't count the Giants out as they historically perform well on the road and their offense is truly picking up steam.  The 49ers have looked downright dominant in the last two weeks, but I think this one will come right down to the wire.  Defense and a good running game from the 49ers should limit Eli's opportunities to put up enough points to win.  MY PREDICTION: 49ERS 34-31.

VIKINGS AT REDSKINS- Despite a losing records, the Redskins have shown an ability to stay in a game with just about any opponent thus far.  This will, for that reason, be a big test for the Vikings.  Assuming RG3 is good to play and not experiencing any lingering effects from that concussion, I think this is the game where the Redskins finally upset a good team.  The Vikings have been picking up steam, but they're far better at home than away.  MY PREDICTION: REDSKINS 31-27.

PACKERS AT TEXANS- The Texans lost a big part of their defense in Brian Cushing and the game against the Jets was far too close for comfort.  That was against the Jets' defense, however, and the Packers won't be able to stop Matt Schaub.  The Packers have not been able to pick up offensive steam yet this year, and they won't do it against a Texans defense that is just riddled with playmakers.  Good luck Packers, you'll need it.  MY PREDICTION: TEXANS 35-14.

BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- I still think the world of Peyton Manning, but the Broncos' defense simply isn't the same this year without 158 year old (that's football years) Brian Dawkins.  He held the secondary down last year, and was a big reason that Tebow got a lot of credit for doing very little.  The Chargers are having a good year and will beat the Broncos at home.  MY PREDICTION: CHARGERS 38-31.

This week contains a lot of games that are far harder to predict than those of last week.  Should be interesting to watch and I fully expect to get a handful of them wrong...I just don't know which ones.  As always GO RAVENS!!!

Friday, October 5, 2012

WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS

DOWN GO THE CARDINALS
   
     I stated in my power rankings that the Arizona Cardinals would almost certainly take a fall due to the return of the regular referees.  That prediction proved accurate, but I should not have had them ranked as high as I did.  I simply had a hard time not giving them credit for a 4-0 record even if there was good reason to believe that their undefeated streak would soon come to an end.  Thursday night's game showed just how upside down the league was during the 3 weeks that the replacement officials called the games.  For three weeks we watched fast, up-tempo offenses get stifled by poor calls, non-calls, and incredible officiating delays due to lack of familiarity with NFL rules and speed.  Perhaps the Cardinals benefitted from playing 3 of their first 4 games at home during a period when home teams were winning at an unprecidented rate in the first 3 weeks of the season.  It is more likely, however, that the Cardinals' defense depended largely on the advantage that defensive backs enjoyed under the replacement refs as they were able to go into Foxborough and upset a Patriots team that seldom loses games on their home turf.  Because of this, I will be more confident in my predictions for week 5 as I made last week's predictions shortly BEFORE learning that the real referees would return immediately.  Here's how I predict that this weekend will go down:

DOLPHINS AT BENGALS- The Bengals will win this game, but don't be surprised if the Dolphins put up a fight.  The Dolphins have fought hard right down to the wire even in games that they've lost such as their overtime loss against the Cardinals last week and their overtime loss to the Jets the week before.  The Dolphins could even upset the Bengals, but they'll have to force 2-3 turnovers to do so.  MY PREDICTION: BENGALS 27-21.

PACKERS AT COLTS- This is a week where we see the Packers truly return to their form of the last regular season.  I've been impressed with Andrew Luck thus far, but the mediocre defense of the Colts simply won't be able to slow down Aaron Rodgers and his receiving corps.  MY PREDICTION: PACKERS 31-17.

RAVENS AT CHIEFS- This game made me a bit worried at first as it is only the second road trip for the Ravens this season, and the first trip ended in a loss where the Ravens appeared unable to run the no-huddle and sugar-huddle offense that made them so successful against the Bengals the week before.  I then remembered that a large part of their inability to go up-tempo was the fact that the replacement officials were allowing the Eagles defensive backs to get away with holding the Ravens' wide receivers far downfield without flags.  The receivers couldn't get separation, and thus, Flacco tried to force the ball to Dennis Pitta unsuccessfully.  This kind of thing won't happen under the watch of the real refs.  Crowd noise will be a factor, but Chiefs simply won't be able to keep up with the Ravens offense.  Matt Cassel is also playing rather poorly and expect the Ravens to capitalize.  MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 26-14

FALCONS AT REDSKINS- I'll give credit to RG3 for doing extremely well in his rookie season.  He already looks better than a number of other starting quarterbacks in the league.  With that said, he does not look better than Matt Ryan.  The Falcons offense is a chain-moving machine.  Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez can and will give problems to even the best of defenses this season.  Expect the Falcons to get an early lead and attempt to sit on it.  I believe RG3 and company will make this a ballgame in the second half, but Matt Ryan and company will string together a number of first downs late in the game to put the game away.  The Falcons don't usually play as well on the road and outdoors, but this is a year where that becomes less of a limiting factor.  MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 31-24.

BROWNS AT GIANTS- This could very well be a trap game for the Giants.  The Browns, despite their 0-4 record, have been in every single game they've played.  Unlike the Bengals, the Browns took it to the Ravens in Baltimore, and the Giants don't enjoy the same homefield advantage as the Ravens.  With that said, the Browns have limited options in the passing game with Mohamed Massaquoi injured, and the Giants have a far better pass rush than the Ravens.  The browns also don't have the same cailber defensive backs as the Eagles, and Eli Manning could be looking at a huge day in the passing game since the Browns will most likely stuff the run.  MY PREDICTION: GIANTS 24-16.

EAGLES AT STEELERS- Seldom will you see me rooting for the Eagles, but NEVER will you see me root for the Steelers.  This will be a big week for the Steelers as we will see how they perform with the return of Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.  I'm no longer impressed with Polamalu, but his presence still seems to command a certain amount of respect and caution from opposing quarterbacks.  James Harrison, when healthy, was a ferocious player last season.  Harrison is, however, rather old for a linebacker at 34, and seems to have injury issues in the last few years.  Both Troy and James should nevertheless provide and a boost to the Steelers defense, and the Eagles luck in close games is sure to run out.  God, I hope I'm wrong about this. MY PREDICTION: STEELERS 21-17.

SEAHAWKS AT PANTHERS- After a disappointing loss to the Falcons last week, the Panthers are ready to beat a Seattle team whose defense relies too heavily upon home crowd noise to be effective.  This will be Cam Newtons breakout game of this year.  MY PREDICTION: PANTHERS 28-13.

BEARS AT JAGUARS- The Bears are an unpredictable team as their success depends largely on the play of an inconsistent Jay Cutler.  When the Bears get going, though, they're a tough team to stop, and the Jaguars are not the team to stop them.  The Bears will win the turnover battle and this game won't even be close in the end.  MY PREDICTION: BEARS 28-7.

TITANS AT VIKINGS- The Titans rank 27th in pass defense and 27th in run defense.  Thanks to Chris Johnson's career nosedive following last year's holdout, they also rank 28th in rushing offense.  To make matters worse, the Titans are still in the bottom half of the league in passing offense with an 18th ranking.  The Titans only showed a glimmer of hope in week 3 by winning a shootout to a struggling Lions team.  The Vikings beat the Lions convincingly along with the 49ers.  The Vikings can run the ball and stuff the run with a 10th ranked rushing offense and a 7th ranked run defense.  If the Vikings can stop the 49ers at home, they can stop the Titans at home.  MY PREDICTION: VIKINGS 24-13.

BRONCOS AT PATRIOTS- I will, without a doubt, be rooting for the Broncos here.  I like Peyton Manning despite the fact that my Ravens beat him only once (his rookie season) during his time in the league.  I wanna believe that the old guy can return to at least 90% of his old form, and use his incredible experience and football I.Q. to outsmart some tough opponents.  That, unfortunately, will not happen this week as the Patriots are back and ready to use a rather potent ground attack to open things up for an already potent passing attack.  Expect the Broncos to fall behind early but make a heroic comeback late in the game.  This comeback, like most others that Peyton Manning has attempted this year, will come up short as the Patriots now have the ability to run the ball and run out the clock to kill Peyton's opportunities.  This is a game where I'll be thrilled if I'm wrong.  MY PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 27-21.

BILLS AT 49ERS- Good luck, Bills--you'll need it. MY PREDICTION: 49ERS 30-10.

CHARGERS AT SAINTS- This is the game that the Saints will finally win.  They looked good last week and came up just short against the Packers at Lambeau.  This time, they're back on their home turf with real referees facing a formidale (but beatable) foe in the Chargers.  This will be a high scoring game.  MY PREDICTION: SAINTS 38-33.

TEXANS AT JETS- No Revis? Check.  No Santonio Holmes? Check.  Playing the Texans? Check.  This will be a depressing day for Gang Green and their fanbase, but I don't think any of them will be surprised at the outcome.  MY PREDICTION: TEXANS 31-10.

    I went 12-3 in my predictions last week and I hope that I can improve upon that accuracy this weekend.  I neglected to make a prediction for the Thursday night game, and for that I apologize.  This weekend will feature some pretty big matchups with the Patriots-Broncos and Steelers-Eagles.  The Ravens will face a big test to see if they can beat a mediocre team on the road in a noisy venue.  This proved a problem for them last year, but last year was a starkly different year for the boys in purple.  As always, GO RAVENS!




Tuesday, October 2, 2012

WEEK 5 POWER RANKINGS AND ANALYSIS

PURPLE NIGHTMARE'S PREDICTIONS RECAP

    I'm proud to say that my predictions went about as well as I could have hoped for when you consider  that I made them under the assumption that the replacement refs would still be officiating over the weekend.  Football players, coaches, and fans everywhere breathed a sigh of relief when the NFL announced they had reached a deal with the new refs late last Wednesday night.  Nevertheless, the Purple Nightmare record for the first week of predictions ended up being 12-3.  I was incorrect about the Giants beating the Eagles thanks to a missed field goal late in that game, I overestimated the Chiefs and underestimated the Chargers, and I assumed that the Vikings were only a flash in the pan and couldn't topple Stafford, Megatron, and company...I was wrong.  All of my other win-loss predictions were correct.


WEEK 5 TOP 10 POWER RANKINGS

   This is the first time I have ever posted power rankings, but unlike most, I waste your time or my own by ranking mediocre and currently irrelevant teams.  Now lets see where we stand after one month of football.

1. HOUSTON TEXANS- It's tough to argue against the Texans at this point.  They're 4-0 and appear to be the most complete team in the league.  The Texans have it all with an elite runningback, a talented quarterback, once of the best wide receivers in the league, and possibly the league's best defense.  I could go into their rankings as far as yardage is concerned, but what is most impressive is that the Texans defense has allowed only 56 points through 4 games.  No other team has allowed less than 61 points, and no other team in the AFC has allowed less than 71 points.  Beyond that, the Texans offense has produced 126 points which ranks second in the NFL behind the Patriots.  The one caveat is that the Texans have yet to face a winning team.  The 4 teams that the Texans have faced have a combined 5 wins through 4 weeks. 

2. ATLANTA FALCONS- Just when I thought the Falcons were clearly the NFL's most dominant team, they go and barely beat a Panthers team whose single win came against an 0-4 Saints team.  The Falcons, however, are still battle tested after they absolutely thumped the 3-1 Chargers... IN SAN DIEGO!  That erases my thoughts that the Falcons are only truly dominant at home.  This year, their offense is quite a sight to behold with improved play from Matt Ryan and help from Roddy White, Julio Jones, and the ageless Tony Gonzalez.  What's holding this team back from being ranked #1 is the fact that they have given up 20+ points in 3 out of 4 of their games thus far, and two of their home wins were by 6 points or less to teams without winning records.

3. ARIZONA CARDINALS- The 49ers are probably going to prove a better team than the Cardinals now that the real refs have returned, but 4-0 speaks for itself.  The Cardinals defense has been a total surprise, and they've gotten better play out of Kevin Kolb than I originally anticipated.  Still, with the new refs back, you'll see an upsurge in the power of teams with high powered passing offenses, and I feel that the Cardinals will soon fall off from their unbeaten status.  They only barely beat a 1-3 Dolphins team in overtime in week 4 with the new refs back to work.

4. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Yes, the 49ers had a letdown game against the Vikings, but the Vikings are also starting to look like a greatly improved team.  It was tough for me to rank the 49ers higher than the Ravens, but the 49ers simply have a much better defense at this point and that allows them to do things like flatten the Jets 34-0.  The 49ers are going to have to improve their passing numbers and utilize their strong receiving weapons more, however, if they hope to maintain their #4 spot for much longer.

5. BALTIMORE RAVENS- After a dramatic comeback win at home against the Patriots, I truly believed the Ravens could beat anyone.  Joe Flacco simply appeared do drive down the field when the pressure was on they way that truly elite quarterbacks do in big games against tough competition.  Joe Flacco, however, is not the entire Ravens team.  The Ravens defense has long been their strong point, but it is, for the first time in a VERY long time, allowing a startling amount of yardage and failing to stop the run in a lot of critical situations.  With all of that said, the Ravens are a blown call away from being 4-0, and their defense is still tied for 3rd in the AFC in least points allowed.  The Raven have the 3rd most points in the AFC and the 4th ranked passing offense in the league with 310 passing yards per game.  Ray Rice is also currently second in the league in all purpose yardage.  If the Ravens want to crack the top 3, they'll need to show they can win big on the road and stop Jamaal Charles on Sunday.

6. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS- I'm not usually high on the Chargers early in the season as there is often a temptation to rank them too highly based on the individual talent they possess.  The Chargers have, however, looked impressive with a 3-1 record and a thorough thumping of the Chiefs in Arrowhead stadium last week.  The Chargers have the 6th ranked run defense in the league and that is not simply because teams have been able to pass all over them instead.  Philip Rivers has only commanded the 23rd ranked pass offense so far, but I predict those numbers will improve as they play the rest of their games with real referees. 

7. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- This ranking may surprise some of you, but it shouldn't.  The Vikings are 3-1 and have put together two impressive victories in a row against the 49ers and against the Lions in Detroit.  The Vikings defense has allowed only 72 points Christian Ponder no longer looks pathetic.  Percy Harvin is on pace to have 120 catches this season and Adrian Peterson somehow required far less than a year to come back from an injury that usually sidelines players for 12-14 months if not more.

8. CHICAGO BEARS- Well I can't say it wasn't satisfying to watch the Bears obliterate Tony Romo last night.  I'm happy to say I predicted it.  This team has a absolutely harrowing run defense that has only allowed 67.3 yards per game on the ground thus far.  Their pass defense has allowed more yards, but they have forced 14 turnovers in 4 games and 11 of them have been interceptions.  Jay Cutler showed that he can make big plays to his receivers even under extreme pressure from pass rushers such as DeMarcus Ware.  The Cutler will have to show some consistency, however, if his team is to ascend further up on this list.

9. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Since losing to the Ravens in week 1 the Bengals have looked rather strong.  Andy Dalton leads an 8th ranked passing offense with 279.3 yards per game.  A.J. Green already has 27 catches and 3 touchdowns, while Andrew Hawkins has averaged 16.5 yards per catch with two touchdowns.  I have been quite impressed with the Bengals ability to win on the road for the last two consecutive weeks, and Andy Dalton possesses the ability to drive downfield seemingly at will when the game is on the line.  The defense will have to improve if the Bengals hope to make a strong run in the playoffs as they have allowed as many points as the offense has scored thus far.

10. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- I believe the Patriots are about to climb WAY up in the rankings in the next few weeks.  Few teams will benefit more from the return of the real referees as the Patriots. The Patriots looked a lot more like last year's team during the first week with the NFL referees back in action.  They have, however, added a new dimension to their game with a strong rushing one-two punch from Stephen Ridley and Brandon Bolden.  The Patriots suddenly find themselves ranked in the top 10 in passing AND rushing as well as 8th in run defense allowing only 85 yards per game on the ground.  The Pats pass defense will have to improve quickly as they're set to face a familiar foe on sunday....PEYTON MANNING!
                                                                                                                                                                  

ONLY 3-1 TEAM THAT DIDN'T MAKE THE CUT:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Last year's "dream team" is 3-1 despite looking rather shakey at times.  After close and controversial wins over the Browns and Ravens, the Eagles were flattened by the Cardinals.  The Eagles are a missed kick and a botched offensive pass interference call away from being 1-3 at this point, and they only barely squeaked by an 0-4 browns team when Brandon Weeden threw 4 interceptions.  Injuries to the offensive line and an extreme number of turnovers will keep this season quite uncertain for Philly fans.


BACK TO THE RAVENS

    One must always be happy with a win in the NFL regardless of opponent or score.  No team is so bad that it couldn't give problems to a team with a much better record, and no team is so good that it isn't vulnerable to a letdown or close game against a bad or mediocre team.  With that said, the Ravens can't be happy with a narrow home win against a Browns team that has yet to win a game.  It wasn't the score or even the sheer number of passing yards that Brandon Weeden put up on the Ravens supposedly star-studded secondary.  It was the fact that the game came down to one final pass into the endzone...make that two final passes into the endzone because the Ravens defensive line wasn't disciplined enough to avoid a personal foul penalty that gave the Browns one last shot.
   The Ravens will have had over a week to correct their mistakes by the time they're in Kansas City.  Dean Pees needs to figure out how to get more out of a run defense that finished second in the NFL in yards allowed last season.  Cam Cameron will also have to show that his fast-paced offense will work in noisy road venues and not just under favorable conditions at home.  The Ravens have a break in that they face a Chiefs team that has allowed more points than the Ravens have scored and scored only slightly more points than the Ravens have allowed.  The keys to the game will be stopping Jamal Charles and Shaun Draughn as well as getting pressuring Matt Cassel into making poor throws.  The Ravens offense will need to get an early lead and keep the pedal to the metal so that the Chiefs will be forced to pass the ball most of the second half.  Cam Cameron should utilize Ray Rice and Vonta Leach frequently to open things up for the pass and keep the clock moving once they've established a commanding lead--that is IF they establish a commanding lead.  Stay tuned for week 5 predictions!  As always GO RAVENS!!!