WHAT WENT WRONG IN HOUSTON??
I don't think there is a single member of the Ravens Nation that wasn't totally bummed after watching their team doing almost everything wrong at Houston last weekend. My prediction of that game couldn't have been much further off, but I should have known better. There were two major reasons that the game was as lopsided as it was, and they are as follows:
#1 Lardarius Webb's absence leaves the Ravens embarrassingly vulnerable to the pass. While he's on the field, Webb pretty much shuts down his side. He did not give up a single touchdown last season, and his statistics were actually demonstratively better than even Darrelle Revis' this season before they both came out with torn ACLs. Quarterbacks seldom threw in Lardarius' direction this season, and they had little success when they tried. Webby also was a sure tackler and masterful on corner blitzes. When Lardarius Webb was out against the Chargers last season, Jimmy Smith started in his place and the Ravens were absolutely destroyed by a team with a far inferior record. Phillip Rivers picked on Jimmy Smith all day long, and Cam Cameron felt it necessary to abandon the run and mostly pass in order to play catchup with a big deficit...which brings us to point #2.
#2 Cam Cameron refuses to learn from his mistakes and also his success. Cam panics when the Ravens defense doesn't perform well and he limits Ray Rice's carries to conserve play clock in hopes that Joe Flacco will just magically run 4-5 successful 2 minute drill style drives the way that Peyton Manning always seems to do in the second half of games that he's losing. The problem is that Joe's success passing the ball hinges on the playaction fake. As many of you know, you must run the ball well to effectively sell the play action fake and open things up for the receivers. Joe is not an incredibly mobile passer, and the play action fake allows to roll out of the pocket and it gives him a few more seconds to allow his receivers to separate as he launches the ball down the field. This is especially important as the Ravens' offensive line has allowed far too much pressure when Flacco stays in the pocket. The math has already been done. When Ray Rice has had less than 15 touches in a game the Ravens almost always lose and when he has 20+ touches they almost always win. I'm probably the millionth person to say it, but the Ravens simply must ultilize their best offensive weapon to be able to win games. The defense is playing poorly, and the only way the Ravens can hope to win many more games (especially road games) is to open up the passing game by establishing the run. You'd think Cam would have learned by now...
With all of that said, I did pretty well in my predictions last week. I went 9-4 to bring my record on the season thus far to 37-18. I was surprised that the Bengals ended up losing a close game to the Steelers, and I was surprised that the Titans were able to edge the Bills by a point. I was less surprised that the Saints won a close game with the Buccaneers as I assumed it would be a very tight divisional matchup...I simply assumed the Bucs would come out on top. Regardless, I am pleased that I've gotten twice as many correct as I have incorrect thus far, and I hope week 8 is even better. Let's get to the week 8 picks, shall we?
WEEK 8 PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings are simply too strong of a team this year to lose this one at home to the Buccaneers. Adrian Peterson will most likely have a strong performance and the Vikings defense won't give Josh Freeman much room with which to work. Christian Ponder has had his ups and downs thus far, but the Buccaneers are ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense and I have a feeling he'll light them up. MY PREDICTION: VIKINGS 23-14.
PANTHERS AT BEARS- DAAAAAAA BEARS. MY PREDICTION: BEARS 26-10.
CHARGERS AT BROWNS- The Browns really aren't even close to as bad as their record indicates--but then again, in the NFL, teams are only as good as their record indicates, and the Browns are 1-6. The Browns have lost some close games to good teams, but the Chargers are coming off of two losses to teams with elite quarterbacks (Drew Brees and Peyton Manning). I don't think highly of the Chargers because Phillip Rivers is so prone to big, costly mistakes, but I don't think the Browns have the firepower to score enough points against a rather strong Chargers defense to win the game. MY PREDICTION: CHARGERS 27-16.
SEAHAWKS AT LIONS- The Lions have been a total disappointment this season, and the Seahawks have been a pleasant surprise. The Lions have the 6th ranked passing offense by yardage thus far, but they aren't a great running team. The Seahawks have an easy time containing pass-heavy teams such as the Patriots, but a tougher time containing teams that can run the ball such as the 49ers and Rams. If Matthew Stafford shows up, this could be a game, but all logic would suggest that the Seahawks win this one with great defense and by keeping Stafford off the field with a fantastic running game. Man, this reminds me of the old Ravens...*sigh* MY PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 19-13.
PATRIOTS AT RAMS- The Patriots stop the run pretty well and the Rams have a fairly poorly ranked passing offense. I simply don't see the Rams stopping a very balanced Patriots offense. The Patriots now run the ball well and still have the 5th ranked pass offense in the league. I simply don't think the Rams will score enough points to win this game. MY PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 31-20.
DOLPHINS AT JETS- This game is almost too close to call. The Jets won 23-20 in overtime over the Dolphins in Miami in week 3, but the Jets no longer have Darrelle Revis. The Jets have looked better in the last couple of weeks, but the Dolphins are coming off of two nice wins against the Bengals in Cincy and at home against the Rams. This is a total toss-up, but I think I gotta go with my gut and choose the home team in this one. I believe the Jets will give the ball to Shonne Green enough open things up for Sanchez and the passing game. The Jets defense should be able to stop the Dolphins, but this will come right down to the wire again. MY PREDICTION: JETS 26-20.
FALCONS AT EAGLES- The Falcons are undefeated, but they've won their last 3 games by a combined 12 points to 3 teams that have only 6 wins combined. The Eagles aren't a great team. They have a quarterback who is prone to big time mistakes and turnovers, but they also have the talent and firepower that gives them the potential to beat some pretty impressive teams including the Ravens, and Giants. The Eagles are also coming off of a bye week, and injuries to memebers of their offensive line should be much improved at this point. This is my upset of the week as I pick the Eagles to win this one narrowly. MY PREDICTION: EAGLES 31-28.
REDSKINS AT STEELERS- The spectacular play of rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III has kept the Redskins in every single game they have played thus far, and they have had a brutal schedule. The Redskins have not lost a single game by more than a touchdown and they have the best rush offense in the league averaging 177 yards per game. The Steelers, however, have their own talented quarterback, and they have only lost road games this year though they've only played two home games thus far. I think this one will come down to which team is more banged up...that team is the Steelers. Mendenhall hasn't practiced yet this week, and Polamalu is out. MY PREDICTION: REDSKINS 30-23.
JAGUARS AT PACKERS- Packers. MY PREDICTION: PACKERS 38-13.
COLTS AT TITANS- The Titans are picking up steam, and the Colts have been absolutely dominated in each of the two road games they've played this season. MY PREDICTION: TITANS 31-20.
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- The Raiders aren't good, but neither are the Chiefs. Arrowhead Stadium is a touch place to play, but the Chiefs have yet to win at home this season. This should be a lowdown showdown between two bottom tier teams. MY PREDICTION: RAIDERS 28-17.
GIANTS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys won the first matchup between these two teams, but that was in large part due to the fact that the replacement officials allowed the Cowboys to get away with some painfully obvious holding in the secondary. Eli has been on fire recently, and the Giants have re-establised their running game and defense. This will undoubtedly be one of the most exciting games of the week. MY PREDICTION: GIANTS 26-24.
SAINTS AT BRONCOS- This will be a big showdown between two quarterbacks that have a tendency to carry their respective teams. The big difference is that the Broncos can run the ball when they need to and they actually play defense. The Saints have the first ranked passing offense in the league, but they rank dead last in rushing, 30th in pass defense, and 31st in run defense. With that said, this should be quite a battle. MY PREDICTION: BRONCOS 35-28.
49ERS AT CARDINALS- Do I even have to say this one? MY PREDICTION: 49ERS 38-10.
The bye week should give the Ravens a chance to regroup and do what needs to be done to beat the next two losing teams they face before their first big showdown with the Steelers. Hopefully, Terrell Suggs will continue to improve his conditioning and get in even better shape to give a big boost to the Ravens pass rush. Haloti Ngata should also come back healthy, and Pernell McPhee should also have some time to heal his nagging injuries that have kept him from returning to last year's form. The Ravens pass rush will have to get VERY much stronger very quickly to help minimize the effects of losing Lardarius Webb on the pass defense. I would like to see the Ravens start Corey Graham instead of Jimmy Smith, but I have a feeling that they're going to give Jimmy another shot...who the hell knows why... Anyway, Ravens fans won't have to stress this weekend and we'll get to kick back and watch the rest of the NFL unfold for another week before the Ravens face the Browns. As always, GO RAVENS!!
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